Formation Notes: Northwestern kept their safeties down all day so the “Hi” metric is doing more work than normal. I started giving safeties +0.5 in the box if they got within 8 yards within a second after the snap, and +1 in the box if they got closer than that.

Michigan had a formation where the slot receiver and tight end switched spots. When they did this I denoted it with “Flip” then the position headers, so this is Gun YH Flip.

Substitution Notes: Filiaga (RG) and Barnhart (LG) went all day for injured Keegan and Zinter. Just one snap for McCarthy until Michigan had a comfortable lead in the second half. Roman Wilson returned but his snaps were mostly soaked up by the debut of Andrel Anthony as a rotation guy, so by snap count the current order is Johnson, Baldwin, Sainristil, Henning, Anthony, Wilson. Hibner came in before Seltzer when they decided they were up enough to save the mileage on All, and Edwards got a drive until he fumbled it.

[After THE JUMP: This was a long one, and I charted them all since they had relevant starters and JJ in late]

Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M2	1st	10	Gun Covered	4-3-4	4-3 Over	1	Run	8	ZR Belly Give	Haskins	2	-0.11
Normally I would give a read minus because there's no thought in this OLB's mind that it's going to be a keep, but given the danger of a safety here I get why not. Filiaga(+1) does most of the work of the DT double himself, Schoonmaker(-1) can't get anything on the DE, and Honigford(-1) gets shoved way back so there's help coming from there too.
M4	2nd	8	Gun Y-Flex	4-3-4	4-3 Even	2	Run	6.5	Speed Option	Corum	2	-0.15
RPS-2 since NW is overplaying the edge. McNamara(read+) does at least get the extra guy to commit, Corum(+2) should be dead but cuts inside and gets a couple by literally spraining this guy's ankle.
M6	3rd	6	Gun Y-Flex	4-2-5	Nk Even	2	Pass	5.5	Dig	Johnson	6	0.51
RPS+1 as this plays on a previous tendency to only read one side. NW overloads frontside coverage with 5 vs 3 and McNamara comes backside to the well-run dig by CJ(route+). CA+, 3, Prot 1/1, McNamara+1)
M12	1st	10	Gun YH Flip	4-2-5	4-3 Ovr	1	Run	7	End-Around	Henning	5	0.07
NW is overplaying the edges so they have an extra safety hawing down on this. Schoonmaker(+1) escorts the CB out of the way and Henning(+1) turns the corner on the safety and drags him for a couple to get a solid gain anyways. RPS-1.
M17	2nd	5	Gun Bunch Tight	4-3-4	4-3 Even	2	Pass	7.5	Bubble	Johnson	12	0.88
Most of this play is All(+2) ejecting the grabby CB. CJ(+0.5) turned on the jets to get around the SAM. (CA, screen, prot n/a)
M29	1st	10	Gun Ace	4-3-4	4-3 Over	2	Run	7.5	Counter Trey Read	Haskins	3	-0.34
NW blitzing at this but DE sets up to contain so McNamara(+1, read+) gives correctly. Stueber has no angle on one LB (RPS-1), and Barnhart(-1) goes to kick the DE instead of the DT, whom All(+0.5) passes up to get the LB in the hole. The DT gets Haskins down.
M32	2nd	7	Gun Trips	4-2-5	Nk Over	1	Pass	7	Sack	McNamara	-10	-1.18
Protection breakdown as Filiaga(-2) slides all the way out on an LB while letting the safety who started very low blitz down the hash. Cade is focused on the flare for a long time, doesn't see the S or Henning wide open because of it. I know Brian disagrees but (BR, n/a, Prot 1/3, McNamara-2)
M22	3rd	17	Gun Wk	3-1-7	Prevent	4	Pass	4	Dumpoff	Corum	6	0.03
Give up and punt. M has one route anywhere close to the sticks and doesn't wait for him to clear the CB before dumping it to Corum who adds six yard of field positioning. (TA, 3, Prot 0/0)
Drive Notes: Punt. 0-0. 9 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M26	1st	10	Pistol FB 3w	4-2-5	4-3 Even	1	RPO	7.5	Split Flow Counter	All	7	0.62
The play I hate. McNamara(RPO+) makes the correct read but the SAM is shooting at it (RPS-1) but takes an awful angle and All(+1) gets around him for a decent gain. CJ(+0.5) and Henning(+0.5) have their DBs controlled. (CA(screen), 3, Prot n/a)
M33	2nd	3	Pistol Ace	4-3-4	4-3 Over	2	Run	7	Split Duo	Haskins	14	1.29
New take on SZ where they double the DT and catch a LB outside and a safety barreling down into the gap (RPS-2). Vastardis(+2) ejects a DT who wants to squeeze this gap, and Haskins(+2) whirls through that guy like George Jewett.
M47	1st	10	Gun Twins	4-3-4	4-3 Over	2	Play-Action	6.5	PA Fade	Sainristil	Inc	-1.15
Just two guys in a route and PA takes care of all but a safety who's in good coverage. I think Sainristil(route-) misjudged it and slowed when his only chance is to try to keep running. I also think CJ was wide, wide open for a first down. (BR, 1, Prot 1/1, McNamara-2)
M47	2nd	10	Pistol Wk	4-3-4	4-3 Over	2	Pass	7	Post	Johnson	Inc	-0.96
This one was bad. Line picks up a six-man pressure, CJ has all the room and Cade puts it barely inside the seam where CJ has to break it up instead. (INx, 0, Prot 3/3, McNamara-2)
M47	3rd	10	Gun Trips	4-2-5	Nk Over	2	Pass	6	Slot Out	Sainristil	6	0.23
Sort of a dumpoff but throw gives Sainristil some room to slip a tackle. He doesn't. (CA-, 3, Prot 1/1, McNamara+0.5)
Drive Notes: Punt. 0-0. 5 min 1st Q. At least they took a shot.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M21	1st	10	Gun 2TE	4-3-4	4-3 Even	2	Run	7	Bash	Corum	1	-0.49
Bash is a read play that flips the read so the QB is the dive and the RB is the outside threat, but NW is guarding the edge. McNamara(-1,read-) gives when the DE sets up well outside. Hayes(-1) got dodged by a LB so the unblocked edge and that guy combine to TFL. RPS-1 they were looking for this outside as well.
M22	2nd	9	Pistol Ac3e	4-3-4	4-3 Under	2	Run	7	Split Duo	Corum	4	-0.06
Hayes(-0.5) gets bent back and so does Vastardis(-0.5) to squeeze shut the gap that Corum can only wriggle through until the safety gets under him.
M26	3rd	5	Gun Twins	4-3-4	4-3 Over	2	Pass	7	TE Snag	All	7	1.45
All sits between zones after he clears the ref and twists forward. (CA, 3, Prot 1/1, McNamara+1)
M33	1st	10	Pistol Heavy F Flex	4-3-4	4-3 Over	2	Run	7	Split Duo	Haskins	19	1.74
This is the rugby melee. Double from Stueber(-0.5) and Filiaga(-0.5) can't get movement, so Haskins(+2) meets an unblocked LB at 2 yards, keeps going, and going, and going, and going, and going, with most of the push then pull coming from Honigford(+2), who deserves most of the credit here but Vastardis(+0.5) was a secondary engine.
O48	1st	10	Offset Ace	4-3-4	4-3 Over	2	Run	7	Counter Trey	Haskins	5	0.10
Barnhart(-1) doesn't kick or turn but just kind of impacts the DT, and Schoonmaker(+1) has a job to get him gapped and get around on the MLB. Stueber(-1) can't get down to the WLB but Haskins(+1) arms his way past them all.
O43	2nd	5	Gun Twins Tight	4-3-4	4-3 Under	1	Run	7.5	Jet Sweep	Henning	14	0.80
Vastardis(+2) got around an LB, Hayes(+0.5) and Corum(+0.5) got effective kicks, but the SAM is gunning for this and Filiaga (RPS-1) has no shot to pick him off. Henning(+2) breaks that guy's tackle as the kicks are fighting back, then dances for 10 more and does a flip on the sideline.
O29	1st	10	Gun Y-Flex Bunch	4-3-4	Nk Over	2	Pass	5.5	Dumpoff	Corum	6	0.21
Drop a DE and bring the SAM, picked up but Hayes(-1) gets caught not planted on a power rush so no more waiting. (CA, 3, Prot 0/1, Hayes-1, McNamara+1)
O23	2nd	4	Pistol FB Twins Covered	4-3-4	4-3 Even	1	Run	8	Power	Corum	2	-0.30
All(+1) gets a solid kick but Barnhart(-1) hits the same guy Honigford(-1) is losing and the unblocked MLB sticks.
O21	3rd	2	Offset Y Covered	4-3-4	4-3 Even	1	Run	8	Dive	Haskins	3	0.29
Z covers the Y so there are two WRs on the backside in the backfield. Vastardis(-1) whiffed on the LB he's releasing to, Haskins(+1) runs through him.
O18	1st	10	Gun 2TE	4-3-4	4-3 Under	2	Pass	7	Fade	Johnson	Inc	-0.35
Put exactly where it needs to be, and the CB has to maul CJ to prevent a TD. Fitzgerald is already kicking sand until he realizes the refs-2 were the only ppl in the building who weren't expecting a flag.
O18	2nd	10	Pistol Bone	4-3-4	4-3 Even	1	Run	8	End-Around	Johnson	6	0.12
Schoonmaker(-1) can't control the SAM blitzing and gets away with a little grab as CJ(+1) edges the unblocked DE and Schoonmaker's LB. Barnhart(-1) can't get to the MLB then is looking back and lets a safety charge in unmolested. All(+2) removed grabby CB so one more block springs this all the way.
O12	3rd	4	Gun Trips Covered	4-2-5	4-3 Split	1	Run	8	F Insert	Corum	11	1.88
Run right into the gap they invited with the unblocked safety that Corum(+3) hops around all Hart-like, then jukes the next safety and gets down to the vulture zone.
O1	1st	Goal	Pistol Trips Tight Covered	4-2-5	Goal Line	NA	Run	10	Dive	Corum	1	0.89
Tempo(28) to keep the same personnel on the field. NW slanted and put guys on the ground in the backfield but Corum(+1) goes up and over.
Drive Notes: Touchdown. 7-0. 12 min 2nd Q. McCarthy was just eye-candy.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M43	1st	10	Pistol Trips Covered	4-2-5	4-3 Over	1	Play-Action	7	PA TE Seam	Schoonmaker	Inc	-1.16
Schoonmaker is breaking wide open with all the space on that side of the field, Cade puts it on the numbers where he has to fight the CB. Hater tanks are full now. (INx, 1, Prot 2/2, McNamara-2)
M43	2nd	10	Offset Y-flex Bunch	4-2-5	4-3 Even	2	Pass	7	Flash Screen	Wilson	4	-0.15
All(+2) wipes out one defender, WLB is flying out there though. RPS-1. (CA, screen, prot n/a)
M47	3rd	6	Gun Str F-Flex	4-2-5	Nk Split	2	Pass	6	RB Flare	Corum	6	2.16
Corum(-1) got upfield and can get the 1st but puts on the brakes, then regrets it and gives himself up. Refs give him forward momentum. (CA, 3, Prot 1/1, McNamara+1)
O47	1st	10	Offset Str	4-2-5	Nk Under	1	Penalty	6	False Start	Vastardis	-5	-1.12
Line goes, Vastardis(-1) does not. Would have been a PA off Counter Trey that got CJ open under soft coverage for 10 and maybe lots more.
M48	1st	15	Offset Wk	4-2-5	Nk Even	2	RPO	6	Bubble/F Insert	Wilson	0	-1.04
Orbit motion to a bubble. Henning(-2) whiffs his block and that safety makes the tackle at the LOS. (CA, screen, prot n/a)
M48	2nd	15	Offset Wk F-Flex	4-2-5	Nk Over	2	Pass	6.5	Scramble	McNamara	4	-0.15
Drop a DE and blitz and Stueber notices it and they pick it up. Cade can step up and hit Sainristil on the deep cross but runs for a minimal gain instead. (TA, n/a, Prot 2/2, McNamara-1)
O48	3rd	11	Gun Wk	4-2-5	Nk Wide	1	Pass	8	Deep Out	Johnson	12	2.91
CJ(route+) cuts this off sharply and the bailing CB is dead. Good read by Cade and ball is out before CJ makes his move, though there's a half a beat as it sails out there that Carr-era howitzers find offensive. (DO, 3, Prot 2/2, McNamara+2)
O36	1st	10	Gun 2TE	4-3-4	4-3 Under	1	Run	7.5	F Insert	Haskins	3	-0.23
I think this is on Schoonmaker(-2) who tried to intercept a LB that Vastardis(+1) picked up. The SS is replacing (RPS-1) and he and the free MLB that Schoonmaker couldn't get to when he got stuck bring down the back.
O33	2nd	7	Pistol FB Twins	4-3-4	4-3 Over	2	RPO	7	Read Counter GT/Bubble	Edwards	6	0.24
This is meant to hit big. McNamara(+1, read+) gets the DE to form up. Barnhart(-1) has a kickout doubling Schoonmaker way wide (RPS+1) and doesn't get much of him. He's being replaced by an LB Hayes(+1) shoves by with just enough space to scoot inside the DE they read but no more. Stueber(+1) got down to an LB so this had potential.
O27	3rd	1	Pistol Heavy Ace	4-3-4	4-3 Even	2	RPO	7	F Lead	Haskins	6	0.37
They line up All as a Z receiver then turn him into a lead blocker while kicking the edge, and reading the MLB but McCarthy(-1, RPO-1) lets this LB step down without a throw. Fortunately Hayes(+2) and Barnhart(+1) violently ousted the DT and picked off the MLB in the process so Haskins has a big cutback lane, assisted by Honigford(+0.5) burying a DE who was trying to shoot inside him.
O21	1st	10	Offset Bunch 2TE	4-3-4	4-3 Under	2	RPO	7	Stretch/Bubble	Haskins	5	0.07
Some #SpeedinSpace, sorta. Bunch the formation and read if the SAM goes with the bubble. He does McNamara(+1, RPO+) and that freezes the DE on a false zone read (RPS+1). Zone blocks aren't well-practiced however. Honigford(-2) is sealing the guy that Vastardis(+1) kicks instead of going after a free CB, and Barnhart(-0.5) leaves his combo early to get an LB but this works out as Hayes(+0.5) gets a shoulder and Haskins(+1) can shrug off an arm tackle from that guy. He then gets submarined by the CB Honigford ignored and the unblocked DE's pursuit. Trying not to be too mad at Honigford because Haskins vs a safety is a TD.
O16	2nd	5	Pistol FB Twins	4-3-4	4-3 Even	2	Run	7	Dbl Split Zone	Corum	2	-0.23
It's basically counter with a WR and a TE—same play they started the Washington game—but they're trying to run it to backside. NW crashes the DE and Schoonmaker(-1) doesn't turn him so Corum is trapped inside with an LB in a fairly big gap thanks to a good kick from Barnhart(+1) on the backside DE. LB has a 50/50 shot to guess which way Corum is going and guesses correctly.
O14	3rd	3	Pistol Ace Heavy	4-3-4	4-3 Over	1	Run	7.5	Split Zone	Haskins	6	0.47
NW's doing that same blitz again (replay) and it delivers an LB to the backfield that Barnhart(-2) doesn't pick up, and Haskins(+2) runs through. All(+1) has a good kick to dislodge the DE they were pinching, Hayes(+2) donkeyed a DE, Honigford(+0.5) sealed a S, free SAM slips in to stop this nonsense and gets dragged a yard into an LB that Vastardis(-0.5) harassed but couldn't get around and Barnhart didn't bother with. Miss you Keegan.
O8	1st	Goal	Pistol Ace Heavy	4-3-4	4-3 Under	2	Run	7	Split Zone	Haskins	4	-0.01
Same play. Hayes(+1) again ejects this DT, All(+1) digs out a crashing DE, Barnhart(-1) gets nobody which might induce Haskins(-1) to barrel into the SAM and SS who are stacked outside instead of cutting behind a dig out by Honigford(+0.5). Don't often see him miss a lane inside.
O4	2nd	Goal	Gun Heavy	4-4-3	Goal Line	NA	Run	9	End-Around	Henning	1	-0.29
Getting cute and when NW is overdefending the edges, with 4 guys for two blockers: RPS-3. Haskins(+2) makes room by blasting an LB trying to shoot at this to the ground but there's still two more guys even after the unblocked DE was run by.
O3	3rd	Goal	Pistol Ace	4-4-3	Goal Line	NA	RPO	9	Split Flow Counter	All	1	-0.23
RPS-2 as NW sends their SAM to chip All on his way across, which blows up the play because it's all about the TE beating a LB to the edge.
Drive Notes: FG(20). 10-0. <3 mins 2nd Q. Hate the playcalling, don't like the field goal. Next drive starts with 2:16 and two timeouts.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M23	1st	10	Gun Str	4-2-5	Nk Under	2	Run	6	Counter Trey	Corum	20	1.75
I guess RPS+1 since NW not expecting a power run to start this drive and catch NW in a trap 2 coverage that removes a safety and sends a CB uselessly. Hayes(+2) donkeys the DE away, Filiaga(+0.5) erases the edge, Barnhart(+1) puts an LB outside, and Corum(+1) dashes past another who was caught behind that.
M43	1st	10	Gun Str	4-2-5	Nk Even	1	RPO	6	F Insert/Slant	Corum	7	0.68
McNamara(-1, RPO-) reads the nickel who steps inside but maybe not enough—want Henning to run that route deeper instead of trying to block that guy. Filiaga(+1) and Vastardis(+1) double a DT away and get to the LB level and Schoonmaker(+0.5) gets an effective insert block so this is going to the safety if the nickel stays outside.
50	2nd	3	Offset Str	4-2-5	Nk Under	2	Run	6	Counter Trey	Corum	4	0.24
Vastardis(-0.5) got rocked back which doesn't affect the pull. Filiaga(+0.5) correctly turns the DE diving inside but leaves his butt in the way of Schoonmaker(-2), who gets hung up on this when he's supposed to arc around that when he sees the DE coming in. That wipes out a lead blocker so Corum(+1) hops over Filiaga to cut inside the waiting LB and get a clock-stopping first down.
O46	1st	10	Gun Wk	4-2-5	Nk Even	2	Pass	6	TE Out	Schoonmaker	10	0.53
Tempo(30) gets NW not yet set (why is NW not set on a 2-minute drill?) so there's barely any pass rush and their safety is playing WAY high so Schoonmaker can turn this up to the marker. Easy yards. (CA, 3, Prot 1/1, McNamara+1, RPS+2)
O36	1st	10	Gun Empty	4-2-5	Nk Even	2	Pass	5	Z Out	Baldwin	Inc	-0.72
Running three routes across the middle vs a three-man rush and Cov2 (RPS-2). Cade has time to vamp but sees a CB comes up to thunk Baldwin(route-) at 6 yards past LOS and tries to draw a flag as Baldwin goes to the ground. They don't get one because contact occurred before the pass (there's no chuck rule in CFB). (TA, 0, Prot 1/1)
O36	2nd	10	Gun Str	4-2-5	Nk Under	2	RPO	6	Counter Trey/Slants	Corum	6	0.24
This time the Nk stays away when McNamara(+1, RPO+) reads him but that's because NW is sick of getting hit by this and blitzes the puller's gap, crashes the backside DE, and slants into the intended gap so RPS-2. Barnhart(-1) turns back instead of going for the other LB. Stueber(+1) is supposed to kick that backside guy but sees the blitz and decides that's the more dangerous option, crushing him inside so can Corum(+2) might have a chance to slip by the crashing DE. He does but gets tripped and meets the safety who was late replacing the blitzer. A lot of this is on bad NW defenders but this was really close to turning a big defensive RPS victory into a huge offensive play.
O30	3rd	4	Gun Wk	4-2-5	Nk Under	1	Pass	7	TE Out	All	3	-0.30
Tempo(34) and I think Cade is a titch late to throw this after All's break outside, and All can't turn and stretch to the marker until after he's run OOB. Wrong fans boo good spot. (MA, 3, Prot 1/1, McNamara-0.5)
O27	4th	1	Offset Bone	4-2-5	Goal Line	1	Run	9	Iso	Haskins	2	1.09
Stalemate at the LOS and Haskins(+1) dives over it, ball first, then crucially doesn't fumble as he's Battle of the Bastards'd atop the melee for a few seconds. After the play Adebawore knocks the ball out of Haskins's hand as he tries to hand it to the ref and Bergin sticks his junk in HH's face, so let's try to enjoy the rest of this.
O25	1st	10	Gun Wk	4-2-5	Nk Wide	2	Pass	6.5	TE Out	All	16	0.28
Junk boy blows this as he's lazy to get out on this when NW is doubling Baldwin. All(+1) turns it up the sideline and stiffarms Bergin for extra.
O9	1st	Goal	Pistol FB Demi	4-2-5	4-4 Over	1	RPO	9	Split Flow Counter	Schoonmaker	3	-0.10
RPS+1 I guess since NW overplays the run and puts no pressure on Cade. Schoonmaker(-1) is not All and can't shake a safety in space. (CA, screen, prot n/a)
O6	2nd	Goal	Offset Wk	4-2-5	4-4 Under	NA	Run	8	Split Zone	Corum	3	-0.10
RPS-1 as they slant against this. Schoonmaker(-0.5) can't dig out a pinching DE and Hayes can't get an LB because of the slant but Barnhart(+1) wedges out a small crease for Corum to duck for some yards.
O3	3rd	Goal	Offset Wk	4-2-5	Nk Even	NA	Pass	8	Swing	Sainristil	1	-4.40
This should have been a wheel. Baldwin(-2) misses a block on the safety he's supposed to pick (legally since pass is behind the LOS) but it's also playing right into their hands (RPS-1) to make the WR gear down to collect the pass instead of just putting it where he can run under it. Anyway it's about to be 4th and 2 again when Sainristil(-3) fumbles.
Drive Notes: Fumble. 10-7. 17 seconds 2nd Q. At least we didn't show MSU any of our good redzone ideas amirite?
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M26	1st	10	Pistol Ace Covered	4-3-4	4-3 Over	2	Run	7.5	ZR F Insert	Haskins	1	-0.61
M fans are bitter about how the last half ended so let's start this one with our Let's Burn a Down on Fire play. Fake read or not I chart so McNamara(-2, read-) turns down a keep on a crashing DE. Hayes(-1, RPS-1) loses the DT who started and slanted inside him so All(-1) has to use up his lead block on that and still can't stop him from squeezing in. Filiaga(+1) ran the other DT upfield, but Stueber(-1) released into nobody and doesn't come back for the unblocked LB that All never got to. Good block by Vastardis(+1) and an extended Honigford(+1) kickout while getting an extended hands to the face meant there was a big gap if there isn't a guy immediately in the RB's legs from our fake reads.
M27	2nd	9	Offset Stacks	4-2-5	Nk Even	2	RPO	6	IZ/Flash Screen	Haskins	3	-0.19
SAM seems to be the guy being read but he's obviously entering the box at the mesh and McNamara(-1, RPO-1) gives. Barnhart(-1) can't get around the guy Vastardis(+0.5) set up for him before releasing to the MLB so this goes down in a heap. A 3-yard heap because of Haskins(+0.5) naturally.
M30	3rd	6	Offset Str F-Flex	4-2-5	Nk Under	1	Pass	7	Slot Fade	Sainristil	Inc(Pen+10)	2.05
Sainristil(route+) runs by the nickel, who starts grabbing and continues to do so until the ball arrives, yanking him down by the wrist as he goes up for the pass. Sideline judge is willing to let all of this go, but another ref throws a holding flag, which is 10 yards instead of 15, so still refs-1 and also yeesh this sideline judge. (CA, 1, Prot 1/1, McNamara+1)
M40	1st	10	Pistol Ace	4-3-4	4-3 Under	2	Run	7	Dbl Split Zone	Haskins	0	-1.12
Safeties rolled to 8 yards before the snap and 6/7 at the mesh point. Doesn't matter since Barnhart(-2) is rocked back at the snap so Haskins can't access the frontside. Backside is overloaded (RPS-1) so there's nowhere to go.
M40	2nd	10	Offset Str	4-2-5	Nk Even	2	Run	6	Counter Trey	Corum	5	0.07
We are good at this. Barnhart(+1) turns a crashing DE inside, Schoonmaker(+1) kicks the SAM who replaced, Stueber(-1) was a little late getting down to the MLB but Corum(+0.5) stiffs that guy and hops for a few extra.
M45	3rd	5	Gun Wk F-Flex	4-2-5	Nk Over	1	Run	6.5	Arc Read Give	Corum	24	2.97
We've got a new record for how much a DE can crash to prove McNamara(-1, read-) will give. This guy comes so hard that Schoonmaker(+1) turns him inside without trying to, but also with enough force to keep the backfield clean. Also Barnhart(-1) is getting rocked backwards. Corum(+3) bounces out into the sprawling acres they were begging Cade to take while Hayes(+1) gets down to a safety. They are rolling down a safety but Corum jukes that guy down. Another safety steps up, and he dives at air as well. I am capping this at +3 because it's not a touchdown but yes, the shield is well overdue.
O31	1st	10	Gun Wk X tight	4-2-5	Nk Under	2	Pass	6	Fly	Johnson	Inc(Pen+15)	0.27
Tempo(25) and catch NW in tight Cov3. Grabby CB is beat by CJ(route+), grabs a wad of jersey, and prays the stripes will bail him out. Side judge almost doesn't but back judge throws his and then side guy takes his out. Dude. We don't chart these but the throw looked good enough that Klatt says so, so I'll give Cade his due in the points. (Not charted, 0, Prot 1/1, McNamara+1)
O16	1st	10	Gun 2TE	4-3-4	4-3 Over	2	Run	7	ZR Buck CG	Corum	11	0.68
Reminder that "Buck" = "Pin & Pull" and we're still good at this but it helps that NW was slanting backside and that makes for an easy give read for McNamara(+1, read+). All(+1) and Honigford(+0.5) combo the DE to the SAM who gets ridden outside then sealed: Dog 1 is open. A safety goes outside of him and Vastardis(+1) ejects him. Barnhart(-1) got playside of the DT and an LB who shot inside of Hayes(-1) on a blitz but Barnhart doesn't seal the LB for some reason. He'll factor as Corum(+2) sets up the last LB for Filiaga(+0.5) to harass, and then chaser gets a dive at his legs and he runs through Filiaga's diving LB and Vastardis's now-recovered safety to get the 1st down.
O5	1st	Goal	Pistol Trips Tight Covered	4-3-4	Goal Line	NA	Run	11	Dive	Corum	5	1.83
Tempo(28). NWern's LBs are focused on the side with all the TEs and WRs (RPS+2) so Vastardis(+1) kicks and seals a DT, Barnhart(+1) seals all the LBs on the inside, Filiaga(+0.5) locks a CB who wants no part of this and Corum(+1) scoots in before a safety can get there to make it interesting.
Drive Notes: Touchdown. 17-7. 11 min 3rd Q. The XP hangs in the netting. Fitzgerald doesn't like his headset.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M21	1st	10	Offset 2TE	4-3-4	4-3 Over	2	Pass	7	Flood Mid	All	Inc	-0.59
The almost INT and it's because a DE who came high to chip Haskins out of the backfield then shoved in Vastardis(-1) and got his hand on McNamara's arm during its follow-through. All(+2) has to come back to prevent a CB playing deep off Wilson from picking it off. If accurate this guy still had a chance but had 10 yards to close on Wilson and Haskins was breaking open, so this is still a (BR, 1, Prot 1/1, McNamara-2)
M21	2nd	10	Pistol FB Demi	4-3-4	4-3 Over	2	Run	7.5	End-Around	Anthony	6	0.14
NWern shoots a DE into this (RPS-3) which should end it but Anthony(+2) bends all the way around that guy and the LB who shot into the backfield. Loss prevented, there's still a lane from Sainristil(+2) blocking the SAM until he bumps into the DL pursuit and Baldwin(+1) running his CB upfield until that guy collides with the LB Anthony just turned. All(+1) got down to a safety so there's just the recovery from Sainristil's SAM to beat, but that guy runs it down. Better effort from Hayes(-1), who's a lineman I get it, would have sufficed.
M27	3rd	4	Gun Str F-Flex	4-2-5	Nk Under	1	Pass	6	Hitch	Baldwin	Inc	-0.35
Cade sees a CB draped all over Baldwin and throws it at him expecting the obvious flag, which never comes. Refs-2...same guy. (CA, 1, Prot 1/1, McNamara+1)
Drive Notes: Punt. 17-7. 7 min 3rd Q. Next drive starts on the NW 24 after the blocked punt.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
O24	1st	10	Gun 2TE Covered	4-3-4	4-3 Under	2	Run	7	ZR Buck CG	Corum	9	0.64
The DE forms up at this so give is the read and McNamara(+1, read+1) is all too happy to oblige. Hayes(-1) lets the DT he's blocking down get into the backfield but got enough to avoid a big minus (might not be true with a better DT). Honigford(+1) crushed his DE with help from Schoonmaker(+1) who moves on to kick out the MLB. Barnhart(+1) got a perfect kick on the OLB setting the edge, but Vastardis(-1) and Stueber(-1) can't seal a couple of overpursuing defenders. Corum(+1) has to turn back inside, goes around a safety, and drags the pursuit for a couple.
O15	2nd	1	Pistol FB Covered	4-3-4	4-3 Over	1	Run	8	Power Lead	Haskins	2	-0.50
This becomes an accidental trap as Filiaga and Stueber(-2) let a DT in unblocked. You can tell whom I blame, but that's also because he stops instead of rolling with it. Barnhart(-1) also doesn't roll with it, kicking this guy but then letting him come around to tackle. Wish they just rolled with it because it's a good trap if they do.
O13	1st	10	Pistol FB Twins	4-3-4	4-3 Under	2	Run	7.5	Counter CF	Haskins	13	2.49
My mood perks up considerably when they run power. Vastardis(+1) turns the crashy DE. Two LBs shoot up to the edge and All(+2) kicks the inside on so hard he hits the other. Stueber(+0.5) picks off the third LB. Filiaga(+1) removes the frontside DT. All this escorts Haskins(+1) the first ten yards and he drags what little remains of NWern's defense with him the rest of the way. Replay.
Drive Notes: Touchdown. 24-7. 4 min 3rd Q. Power. Power. Power. Power.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M44	1st	10	Pistol Bone Covered	4-3-4	4-3 Even	2	Run	8	Arc Read Keeper	McCarthy	23	1.47
McCarthy(+3, read+) enters and keeps as the DE overplays the RB, then weaves and dodges, breaking a tackle from Josephs then outrunning pursuit. All(+1) gets a good kick and Schoonmaker(+1) rides out an LB then seals him. Downfield blocks from Anthony(+1) and CJ(+1).
O33	1st	10	Gun Str	4-3-4	4-3 Even	2	Play-Action	7	PA Deep Out	Johnson	Inc	-0.64
I think JJ takes an extra step or two instead of setting up after the PA. He's got CJ but wings it low and wide and uncatchable. (IN, 0, Prot n/a, McCarthy-2) McNamara reenters so JH can talk to JJ.
O33	2nd	10	Gun Str	4-3-4	4-3 Over	2	RPO	7	Hitch/Counter Trey	Anthony	9(Pen-14)	-0.91
SAM comes hard and McNamara(RPO+) pulls and guns to Anthony(-1) who's got the first then gives it up in a failed bid for YAC. Comes back because Barnhart(-1) and Hayes(-1) both were 4 yards downfield when the pass was thrown. It's close--like by an inch--and they never call this, but it's the correct call and they've been pushing it all game, though it didn't affect the play. (CA+, 3, Prot n/a, McNamara+1)
O38	2nd	15	Gun Wk	4-3-4	Nk Under	2	Run	6.5	QB Draw	McCarthy	13	1.42
Filiaga(+1) escorts a DT way outside, Vastardis(+0.5) sells a fallback, and Haskins(+1) thunks the MLB. Barnhart(-1) can't get to an OLB that McCarthy(+1) whoops for a few extra, and takes some punishment for it. RPS+2.
O25	3rd	2	Pistol Heavy Covered	4-3-4	4-3 Under	2	Run	8	Split Zone	Haskins	-1	-0.92
They reinsert McNamara and run Split Zone. WTF! NW blitzes the backside CB and Hayes has to handle, which leaves Barnhart(+2) blocking two guys, and he pulls it off! Unfortunately on the frontside Honigford(-2) got shoved 2 yards deep by a slanting DE, and Haskins(-2) tripped over him in a way that made me momentarily terrified he hurt his ankle, and there were two more unblocked LBs out there because it's split zone and they're RPS-2'ing it. HH is fine, but M elects to kick instead of go.
Drive Notes: FG(44). 24-7. <1 min 3rd Q. For the record, the 3 points they got was less than the 3.0551 expected points this drive if they went for it. Next drive starts after the Turner pickoff.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
O15	1st	10	Pistol FB Twins Covered	4-3-4	4-3 Under	1	Run	8	Split Duo	Haskins	6	0.18
Back to the split that goes frontside and it works again (RPS+1) as the LBs are shooting backside where they're already overloaded. Vastardis(+1) gets a LB as Filiaga(+0.5) has the DT handled and Barnhart(+0.5) got movement but not position on his DT. If either gets a full block (or a little hold) this might break loose to the sideline, but both can fight back and fall to trip up Haskins(+1) who hops through them into the last LB.
O9	2nd	4	Pistol FB Twins Covered	4-3-4	4-3 Over	1	Run	8	Buck CF	Haskins	2	-0.22
I know the first guy is the first kick but I want Vastardis(+0.5) to go for the first of two edges who show here so the other can't get so far inside. All(-1) seems to think he's going to and comes around too late to turn the 2nd guy. Haskins(+1) stays on his feet but now the safety who was already in the box is up as well and he can only fight them all to stretch for 2 yards that are the difference between 3rd and 2 and 3rd and 4. RPS-2 since NWern was overplaying this edge and brought down both safeties. Hayes(+1) and Honigford(+1) had good blocks on the edge. Cutback was sorta open but not dinging that.
O7	3rd	2	Pistol FB Twins Covered	4-4-3	Goal Line	NA	RPO	9	Hitch-Slant/Split Zone	Haskins	3	0.91
The read is only if they leave a guy wide open but McNamara(RPO+) since they're in m2m. All(+1) gets a thunkin kickout, Stueber(+0.5) and Honigford(+1) combo to the safety and make a mess the too-low LBs can't get around but Stueber's guy chucks him and shoulders Haskins(+2) who fights through that, stays on his feet, and gets the first, at which point Honigford's guy needs a teach tape perfect wrap-up to prevent more damage.
O4	1st	Goal	Pistol Bunch Covered	4-4-3	Goal Line	NA	Run	11	Dive	Haskins	4	1.64
Tempo(31) and they line up in what I like to call a sea of gaps. Each NW guy hops one over, Vastardis(-1) can't prevent his from getting directly in the RB's path. Haskins(+2) jump cuts around this and the rest is gravy as Filiaga(+1) and Stueber(+1) all won the backside blocks, and Barnhart(-0.5) got just enough that his guy can only arrive in time to tackle as HH is scoring.
O4	2PC	Goal	Offset 2TE	4-4-3	Goal Line	NA	Run	10	Split Zone	Haskins		-1.05
What is it with them and this play? At least nobody saw their real 2pt play. RPS-2 as NWern has a scrape on the backside and a slant into this. Stueber(-1) misses his block and that was the only hope of a crease. QB rollout was unchecked fwiw.
Drive Notes: Touchdown (missed 2pt). 33-7. 13 min 4th Q. RPS is getting turned off now.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M32	1st	10	Pistol 2TE	4-3-4	4-3 Over	2	Run	8	Counter Trap	Edwards	8	1.02
It's Couter Trey but they let a DT in the backfield on purpose this time. (RPS is off) Filiaga(+0.5) and Vastardis(+1) double the NT way out of the gap. Barnhart(+1) gives him a good wham, Stueber(-1) turns out the DE but lets him upfield and this wastes All(+1) who thunks pretty hard. Want Stueber to move on to the CB if that's going to happen. Hayes(-1) got bad-armed by his DE who fights through to be relevant. Edwards(+0.5) runs through Hayes's guy but now everyone's regrouped and he goes down.
M40	2nd	2	Offset 2TE	4-3-4	4-3 Under	2	Run	7	Buck GC	Edwards	0	-1.31
Stueber(-1) is having a bad day but this is also a slant (RPS is off) that makes it hard for him to block down before the DT is in the backfield. There he causes all kinds of havoc, bending Edwards(+1) who escapes, but also ruining Vastardis's pull. Advanced power teams will flip the jobs here and leave a high kick for the second puller but Filiaga goes for him and Vastardis(-1) picks off Filiaga and blocks the gap so Edwards has to bend around that guy too. After all this bending a safety is there to run this out for no gain.
M40	3rd	2	Offset 2TE	4-3-4	4-3 Even	2	Run	7	F Insert	Haskins	5	1.53
Honigford(+1) clonks the MLB, double from Vastardis(+0.5) and Barnhart(+0.5) does its job to make a lane and get to the LB, and Haskins(+1) no doubts it as he runs into the last LB and two safeties who know there's no passing going on here.
M45	1st	10	Pistol Bunch Tight	4-3-4	4-3 Over	2	Pass	8	Flare Screen	Edwards	11	-5.35
I said RPS is off but they get NWern outmanned here. Solid blocks from CJ(+1) and Sainristil(+1) escort this 10 yards, at which point Edwards(-3) fumbles. On further review the ass chewing stands. (CA, Screen, Prot n/a)
Drive Notes: Fumble. 33-7. 10 min 4th Q. There's one more drive and the starters are in so I guess we're going to line #100 in this excel.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M49	1st	10	Pistol FB	4-3-4	4-3 Under	2	Run	8	Counter Trey	Edwards	3	-0.40
Safeties now rolled to 7 and 8 yards. Vastardis(-2) lets a DT come through who's harassing Edwards(+0.5) who's staying just outside of his grip as Filiaga(+1) turns the end and Hibner(+1) turns the next edge who shows. Those safeties who stepped down to LB level at the snap are now part of this so Edwards falls forward.
O48	2nd	7	Offset 2TE	4-3-4	4-3 Over	2	Pass	7.5	Slot out	Sainristil	8	1.13
DBs playing off so Cade checks into this. Room to turn up if it's thrown faster, instead he makes Sainristil come back to the 1st down line and catch it near the sideline. You checked into this man! McCarthy comes in. (MA, 3, Prot 2/2, McNamara-1)
O40	1st	10	Pistol RB	4-3-4	4-3 Over	2	RPO	8	Power GT/ Bubble	Edwards	1	-0.65
Freshman vision. Barnhart(+0.5) realizes a bit late he has to turn the crasher but does so. Hayes(-1) got caught up behind that then goes around anyway. Edwards(-2) isn't patient enough for all this turn and bounce crap and runs into the LB who's shot up unblocked because the lead blocker is outside.
O39	2nd	9	Gun Wk	4-3-4	Nk Under	2	Pass	6.5	Slot Out	Sainristil	Inc	-1.00
Fake five-man pressure, bring four, Vastardis(-1) loses his DT so this has to be thrown. It's at the right matchup with Sainristil matched on a SAM playing nickel but it's chucked to Tacopants, which everybody please rise and welcome back our good friend Tacopants. Anthony was wide open under soft coverage in front of JJ's face fwiw. (IN, 0, Prot 0/1, McCarthy-1)
O39	3rd	9	Gun Trips	4-2-5	Nk Under	2	Pass	8	Deep Out	Sainristil	18	2.21
Just when I thought I was out. Three man route so protection for days but also lots of coverage. JJ finally sends a missile to Sainristil coming back so he can go down and get it. Freak. (DO, 2, Prot 2/2, McCarthy+2)
O21	1st	10	Gun 2RB Twins Covered	4-3-4	4-3 Over	2	Run	8	ZR Power GT/Arc Z	Corum	0	-0.39
Why are they pulling this out NOW? It's a Power GT to one side and an arc read behind Sainristil on the other. DE forms up so McCarthy(-1, read-) gives and oh man this is some #SpeedinSpace I want to explore further because they've got an LB and DE vs JJ and Sainristil on that side with nobody else for days. Frontside has the DL slanting frontside AND the LBs remaining there so Filiaga(+0.5) can turn an edge late and Stueber(-1) get his after running by him and letting him get a futile arm on Corum, but the safety is at the LOS already. RPS is off I said.
O21	2nd	10	Pistol Bunch Tight	4-3-4	4-3 Over	1	Pass	9	Flare Screen	Corum	5	0.04
Hibner(+1) gets a good kick but Sainristil(-1) had an LB who threw him off. Corum(+1) burrows for the rest. (CA, screen, prot n/a)
O16	3rd	5	Pistol Bunch F-Flex	4-3-4	4-3 Even	1	Run	7	Counter Trey	Corum	2	-0.26
They blitz the LB and safety at this (RPS off). Barnhart(-1) gets blasted back into Hibner when he tries to turn a DE who's coached to defeat this block. Safety blitz is in this gap too but Corum might be able to bounce around that. Instead he hits it up inside for 2 which is fine in the circumstances.
O14	4th	3	Gun Empty Trips	4-3-4	4-3 Under	2	Pass	6.5	JJ’s Wild Ride	Seltzer	7(Pen-22)	-2.67
Here we go. 3-man rush but Seltzer comes open and should be the read. Instead JJ bails, runs back to the 36 (this started on the 14), turns the corner on all three of these dudes, then Buttzones it to Seltzer. The refs-4 wipe it out with an absolute horseshit "blindside block" on Filiaga who put a shoulder into this guy's chest. I don't know how to chart this so here's a +2 for a bad read I guess. (BR, 2, Prot 2/3, McCarthy+2) I guess?
Drive Notes: Missed FG(47). 33-7. 4 mins 4th Q. End of game for the offense.

I don’t think the offense is as good as it should be.

How good should it be?

Two Heisman contenders at running back, a deep offensive line, fast receivers who don’t mind blocking, and enough tight ends to stock a Jim Harbaugh roster at Stanford. And yet.

And yet.

Admit it, you hate our 7-0 comrade too.

I do not. McNamara’s 4.8 YPA and 129 yards includes a nine-yard jet sweep but does not include two 30-yard passes that went into the books as 10- and 15-yard penalties. Give him those and the atrocious non-call in the corner of the endzone and you get a statline of 21/28 for 197 yards, 7 YPA, and 2 TDs that seems more representative of his actual performance.

That fake statline also demands some context, because Northwestern’s linebackers were flying up at the first sign of play-action, and the OL graded out a 24/28 (86%) when he was in the game in protection, which is superb. Northwestern’s defense is not good, and was setting up its safeties at 7 or 8 yards to prevent Corum and Haskins from gashing them on the edges. The receivers got charged for just two bad routes. Put 2016 Wilton Speight in that environment and you get 300 yards in a half. Here’s what we got:

CADE MCNAMARA

	Good				Neutral			Bad					Ovr			Reads
Game	DO	CA	SCR		PR	MA		BA	TA	IN	BR		DSR	GRADE!		RPOs	ZRs
W. Michigan	3+	3(3)-						2			1		67%	+5		4/5	2/7
Washington	1	3(2)-			2	(1)			3	1(1)	2		40%	-8		5/5	4/9
NIU	2	7+ -			1	1							100%	+11		1/2	1/2
Rutgers	3+	5-			1	1				5xx	1		57%	+2.5		2/2	1/6
Wisconsin	6	13	1		1	2		1	1	4x	2x		71%	+10.5		2/3	1/2
Nebraska	3+	13(2)-			3	6		3	3	6	1x		55%	-1.5		1/3	2/2
Northwestern	2	11(5)+			2	2		1	3	4xx	1		59%	-1		5/7	5/8

JJ MCCARTHY

	Good				Neutral			Bad					Ovr			Reads
Game	DO	CA	SCR		PR	MA		BA	TA	IN	BR		DSR	GRADE!		RPOs	ZRs
W. Michigan	1+++	2				3		1x		1			60%	-2		0/0
NIU		4+							1		1		67%	+4		2/2	3/3
Wisconsin	1												100%	+2		2/2	4/6
Nebraska		1											100%	-		1/1	2/2
Northwestern	1	(2)								2	1		25%	+2		0/1	1/2

Basically a repeat of the Nebraska game, except instead of the ball falling too far or short, plausibly due to wind, McNamara was putting the ball in the one spot where the defensive back was most likely to break it up. That was a one-time problem (the Edwards wheel) in Lincoln; two weeks later it was a major issue on downfield shots. The most egregious one was this, which was a likely touchdown if he throws the post towards the post, because all the space from this far hash to the sideline was his.

It makes no sense, because he’s already on the hash he should throw it down. The throw he made is further than the one he should have. We can’t even fall back on the “Well, he’s safer with it” on this throw because where he put it forced Johnson to make an excellent defensive back play to break up an interception.

Fine, one throw. Then it happened again:

Schoonmaker has that guy beat and all the room down the seam. McNamara shorts it outside(!) the seam, which is still catchable but gives the cornerback his only shot at breaking it up. Of all the regressions we’ve seen from Harbaugh’s starting quarterbacks at Michigan, this might be the most frightening, because it’s taking the one reason any of us had hope that McNamara could keep pace with Ohio State’s mercenaries was his previously on target deep ball.

It’s a bad trend, but also a short one, and could right itself this Saturday. As long as his best attribute remains a negative, however, all the other parts of McNamara’s game are more relevant to talk of when (it’s not if) McCarthy replaces him. Because the running game is still having to carry the fact that his zone reads are just an invitation for a DE to crash Michigan’s split zone game.

The cyan wars all started because Michigan seemed determined to keep with their Arc/Zone Read/Split Zone run game, which makes sense if you’re constructing your roster with dual-threats. It was never about “McNamara sucks” just like this video isn’t anti-U-Hauls:

It gets worse the longer you watch ‍♂️ pic.twitter.com/lgZKyiLh0s

— Nu3¢3nt$ (@Nuevocentos) October 25, 2021

Guy in the comments mad I didn't give Cade credit for the fact that the clean water in the pipes washed away all the dirty sludge that came out first.

He just doesn’t go there. It’s telling that best answer for it so far has been to have Blake Corum just bounce around the crasher and run where McNamara should have.

And some of his RPO reads remain so baffling. The SAM here is making his intentions clear, and the safety to that side is in no position to do anything about a throw to Anthony.

His reputation for bad reads after the snap is now extending deep into the passing game. The almost INT wasn’t as bad on review—his arm got hit on the follow-through—but that DE never should have had the opportunity because this ball should be out when All is at midfield.

The one to a bracketed Sainristil had a small window that he might have put the ball through if Sainristil hadn’t stopped, but it’s a two-man route thrown to the one who’s double-covered instead of the one who isn’t covered.

That’s some O’Korn shit, and it was way more visceral from a fan perspective than all the good stuff that the coaches are using to decide he’s the starter. He is a smart Pre-snap reader. He knows what he wants to do with it before the snap, and that is usually correct.

And his accuracy has been a plus. The fan brain way to show all of this is how you feel when Michigan goes five-wide on 3rd and medium. Pretty good right? Well it’s actually getting better. Earlier in the season he wasn’t making the backside read when he had a route combination to the frontside. Northwestern bet on that, putting extra dudes frontside. Cade checks there to make sure it’s the 5-on-3 they showed pre-snap, and comes back to the 2-on-2 snag on the backside.

People still throw around “Game Manager” like it’s a bad thing to play the thinking man’s wargame with a brain. But if you give him a cushion he’s going to spot it and take it.

He checked into that, and makes 30 more checks a game that have probably borne out in the very good running game but no fan can or will be able to see on tape. You talk about having a QB who can go to East Lansing or State College (or Nebraska/Madison) and give you a chance to win, and virtually guarantees that against a Northwestern or what’s happened to Indiana, even without the deep shots.

But then some football happens and you can’t help wondering what life would be like with the other one.

 

THE OTHER ONE!

Right, we got some JJ in this game, but didn’t learn anything we didn’t know or suspect already. Like…yeah he can run.

That’s the arc read, which is the play that pairs with split zone directly, and led to some huge gains in 2018-’19 before Shea Patterson too developed Harbaugh Starter Keeperphobia. It’s not just the prospect of McCarthy doing the McCaffrey dance through opponents…

…but that the threat of McCarthy’s legs should allow zone reads to function as they’re supposed to, and stop defenders from crashing the edge when they see a tight end flow across the formation. Imagine Corum and Haskins if they didn’t even have to dodge a defender at the line of scrimmage first. Right?

Those legs would later lead directly to points, when they ran a draw with him on 2nd and 15 to set up 3rd and 2 in field goal range.

McNamara returned for the 3rd and 2, and it was the first time I was like “NO LEAVE IN THE FRESHMAN!” because I survived the Urban Meyer years with JT Barrett, who only ever came up short the one time. Meyer won his championship at Florida by using the game manager until the safeties no longer had to defend deep threats (short situations/redzone), when he could insert freshman Tim Tebow.

The upside was on full display, viscerally. This was a failed play where I marked McCarthy for a bad zone read, but it’s a gray area the way the defensive end and the LB behind him are playing the edge. But just look at the potential if he can get out backside while the rest of the defense is freaking out about a power run the other way:

And herein lies the quandary: POTENTIAL is not performance. This is just as true with his one downfield completion in this game, which was freaky:

But he’s also got the Freshman Devin Gardner tendency to miss a simple open TE on mesh then go on a grand adventure. I marked this Bad Read for the tight end thing, but also +2 because he did, ultimately, find that same tight end.

He also set up too late on a play-action and missed a wide open receiver on his other downfield throw. When do you want to introduce that kind of gamble? Right now what I see in McCarthy is a guy who’s going to be a third insane awesomeness, a third forgettable badness, and a third insane variance. Not to sound too much like the super conservative coaches of my youth, but with McCarthy, two-thirds of the things that can happen any play really are bad, and his limited opportunities do not yet show a guy who can do the ho-hum things you don’t remember after a game except throw screens.

The component I can’t see on film is how does it affect the team? Would McNamara stick around to be a backup? Would Michigan stop using McCarthy’s legs the minute he became the starter? Gun to my head, I’m on Team McNamara, provided he doesn’t regress further. If the last few years of Michigan football have taught us anything, that’s just as if not more likely than him getting better. Also this was about the last opportunity—unless you want to do it against Indiana—to let McCarthy take the offense out of the garage, and Michigan stuck with Cade to the last drive. If you get a McNamara implosion against MSU this weekend, gambling on JJ is an option. Ideally they can carve out a larger role, or have already but masked it against Northwestern so they could spring the good stuff on the rival.

How much did we miss the starting guards?

Filiaga has more or less been a co-starter with Keegan this year, and filled in often enough for Zinter that the transition was seamless. Zinter can really maul guys in the run game, but his hand was a pass pro problem. Filiaga has limitations in agility but matched against a team that doesn’t have the talent of Nebraska or Washington he was stellar—in fact he might have played the best game of his career.

What about the one sack?

It says something that sacks are such rare events for this offense. This one was caused by leaving the safety out of the protection.

Brian’s probably right in expecting Filiaga to have a spidey sense for when they’re adding a blitzer. The “that’s not their job” (it’s the QB’s) perspective comes mostly from former players or coaches who’ve had football assignments hammered into their brains or done the hammering for their specific systems, but fan brains have more room to treat the game as a game. Offensive line is hard precisely because you’re expected to make snap decisions outside of the framework of the offense.

Filiaga wasn’t really the one I was asking about.

Barnhart was more of a mixed bag. On the up, he had one play where he found himself having to block two guys, and pulled it off:

To the bad, Barnhart does not have Keegan’s uncanny sense for running blitzers out of the play, and didn’t know what to do after he let one go by.

Okay, you missed a blitzer. That’s Hassan’s problem now; don’t just stop and castigate yourself for it. Get a guy. (Also shout out to Joel Klatt. Gus Johnson is hype and I love him for that, but this is the third time this game that I’ve written up the play only for Klatt to do a replay and explain graphically what I was just trying to convey.)

To be clear, Barnhart is a downgrade only because the starters have been so good. I’m used to them wrecking (non-Wisconsin) linebackers when they get a free release on them, but “good enough” still works.

And Michigan was all too happy to run off Barnhart’s back; in fact I think he had the most scored plays of anybody, which shows he was a big part of the gamplan.

Scores? As in, in a…

Chart.

Chart!

Offensive Line
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Hayes	11	9.5	+1.5	Thunkin on combos, deep blockdowns slipped inside him.
Keegan			0	DNP
Vastardis	15.5	9.5	+6	DTs pushed him around in pass pro, he got them in the run.
Filiaga	10.5	2.5	+8	Ladies & gentlemen, The Backup. "Blindside" was BS.
Stueber	4	10.5	-6.5	Playing hurt? Didn't have his normal agility, blew an assignment.
Zinter			0	DNP
T.Jones			0	DNP
Crippen			0	DNP
Barnhart	11.5	19	-7.5	Busy day, learning on the job.
Atteberry			0	DNP
All	20.5	2	+18.5	He's going to be All-Big Ten this year.
Schoonmaker	6.5	8.5	-2	Secret reason M is better at power than zone stuff (he is).
Honigford	9	6	+3	Targeting issues, clonks returned. Main hero of the rugby melee.
Hibner	2	0	+2	Welcome to the chart, TE#3.
Seltzer			0	DNC because late backs were skipping the outside.
TOTAL	90.5	67.5	+23	All day.
Backs
Player	+	-	T	Notes
McNamara	6	6	0	Half the time the give read was right.
McCarthy	4	2	+2	Rushing contributions from a QB!
Villari			0	DNP
Haskins	21.5	3	+18.5	A fitting tribute to George Jewett.
Corum	19	1	+18	Which jump-cut of a guy in his face/safety shuck do you mean?
Edwards	2	5	-3	Fumbled.
Dunlap			0	DNP
TOTAL	52.5	17	+35.5	They're just that good. I capped two runs at +3.
Receivers
Player	+	-	T	Notes
C.Johnson	4	0	+4	Got to show his own jets this game.
Sainristil	3	4	-1	Solid mountain goat blocking and one fumble (-3).
Henning	3.5	2	+1.5	Tries to block, but is still easily sloughed off.
Wilson			0	Was back, got the ball, but DNC.
Baldwin	1	2	-1	Was on the field with Anthony so he wasn't giving up snaps.
Anthony	3	1	+2	Not THAT Anthony, but that is some SPEED.
TOTAL	14.5	9	+5.5	Quietly become a strong receiver room.
Metrics
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Protection	28	33	85%	Just the one bust on a safety Filiaga didn't see.
RPS	12	33	-21	Hope this means Gattis used the bye to prepare for MSU.

 

Brian said he’s coming around on the idea that your running back scores are more a reflection on the charted than who’s doing the charting.

I feel a little bad that he toiled for years in the mines of Shaw and Green and is missing this. But only a little. Because when I’m watching Michigan games these days I can think things like “Oh man, I can’t wait to see if that deserves a +3!” Maybe it’ll help if I give some examples that are totally not just an excuse to dump Blake Corum highlights all over the UFR.

This was a borderline +1 or +2 to me.

It’s well-blocked but it’s a counter play so he has to downshift a bit to let the blocking develop, specifically for the Barnhart block to clear the linebackers outside. We’re still at zero, but the patience to do that is an attribute that a lot of backs I’ve scouted for FFFFs didn’t possess, and their versions of this run ended at five yards. The burst of speed at the 25 yard line earns the +1, because he goes right by that LB, turning an 8-yard gain into a 15+. It’s borderline +2 because he extends it to 20.

Here’s a +2 run. Northwestern is doing the Wisconsin thing here to overload where Michigan wants to attack, having the frontside (bottom) of the line slant that way with a blitzing linebacker adding to it, then having the (top) DE outside to force a give into that meat. Stueber gives him a little room but it’s Corum who turns a certain loss into another rushing down. Just slithering past the DE when he’s D-E-D-dead is an accomplishment, but then there’s a tiny extra hop that turns a 3-yard gain into a 6-yard gain.

The two +3s in this game were also making up for other issues in the offense. This is the crazy run I was talking about on the podcast, where Corum bounced into the space that any kind of read offense would have the quarterback running into:

Where does a mortal running back go down? Does he bounce out of the backfield at all? Fall forward for two when the safety meets him at the line of scrimmage? What about the safety he met 10 yards downfield? It wasn’t a touchdown so +3.

Now here’s the one brian was talking about on the podcast.

Unblocked guy in the hole? Whoop. Unblocked guy at the first down marker? Diddle diddle whoop! And then when there’s nowhere else to go, he still leaps forward to make sure the goal line situation is easily Haskinsed.

Speaking of Haskins

He was also making up for the issues with the offense, or other guys’ mistakes. How many Mo Hurst plays like this ended with a flattened back in the backfield?

WHOOP!

I remarked, because I had recently read all the Daily archives that mention him, that this was George Jewett-esque when it happened:

Little did I know the announcers were talking Jewett at that very moment. What they didn’t bring up was when Albion fans lost it and tried to storm the field after a Black man’s spin-o-rama ruined their perfectly sound defensive play. We have come a long way since then in many ways, but the Michigan halfbacks of 130 years later are just as dangerous to a safety standing in the right spot as the first great one. Pro Football Focus has Corum and Haskins #1 and #4 in the country in their RB scoring, so it’s not just me.

Speaking of 1890s football, the rugby maul I thought was a +2 for Haskins but just as much credit was due to Joel Honigford for pushing it and pulling it and cajoling it forward any way he could.

TE#84, second from the bottom on the line:

I was wrong; you’re not a running back slappy; you’re a tight end slappy.

The dirty secret to Michigan’s excellent running game this year is the tight ends are doing as much or more than the official hogmollies. Of them, Erick All is an All-Big Ten player who had an All-American caliber game. The reason Michigan loves to run split zone and counter in the first place is it usually ends with Erick All kicking out a stationary defender of some kind.

 

His receiving has also been reliable, albeit disrespected by more than fans. The two-minute drill at the end of the half was a lot of rushing, but also took its last few chunks with tight end outs that Northwestern didn’t bother to cover.

That was dumb because unlike Schoonmaker or Honigford, All can turn this up and keep going. Later in this drive we had another of those split flow counter plays I don’t like, because All’s speed versus a linebacker is a matchup they want to keep exploiting. I would like to remind them that a crosser can also become a wheel route. Hint hint.

I feel like we always ask about the receivers at the end.

They were more of a sideshow in this game than usual, not by design, but because whenever the ball went downfield they were wearing Northwestern DBs.

As a result the charting was littered  with passes I didn’t know whether to mark “1” (circus catch opportunity) or “0” (not a chance in Columbus). I mostly went with “1” so please don’t go using words like “drop” to describe them:

	THIS WEEK					THIS YEAR
Player	Uncb	Circus	Tough	Routine		Uncb	Circus	Tough	Routine
Johnson	2	0/2		3/3		7	1/10	4/5	12/12
Baldwin	1	0/1				4	0/5	6/8	5/7
Sainristil	1	0/2	1/1	3/3		1	2/7	1/2	8/8
Henning						3		1/2	1/1
Wilson				2/2		1	2/3	1/1	8/9
Dixon						1	0/1		1/1
Anthony				1/1					1/1
x Bell x							1/2	1/1
All		0/1	1/1	4/4		2	0/3	4/5	11/11
Schoonmaker		0/1		2/2		2	0/2		6/6
Honigford						2		0/1	1/1
Seltzer								0/1
Hibner
Corum				4/4		1	1/1	1/1	16/17
Haskins						1			2/2
Edwards						1	0/1		1/1

Routes: Johnson+3, Sainristil+1/-1, Baldwin-1

Also Carter Seltzer made a tough one (at the end of JJ’s Great Adventure) if he ends up needing to be added to the chart. It is interesting that Corum continues to be the guy who really sticks out, but he’s not catching them downfield. That was true for a lot of the receivers this game as well, however. Between Wildcats and McNamara fouling all the downfield opportunities, the receivers did much of their work in the quasi-run game, ie screens and end-arounds/jet sweeps.

AJ Henning did more than run fast, breaking a tackle to put Michigan into scoring range for the first time.

Johnson got one as well. Here’s the Andrel Anthony run:

It would appear he is fast.

It would also appear like he had to bend around a guy who was looking for this play.

It would appear that way.

It would appear Gattis got taken to the woodshed by a first-year defensive coordinator.

Yeah, coming out a bye week we had another entry in the top ten worst RPS scores in MGoBlog history. Remember that I normalized this list for 53 plays, not the 92 charted for this game.

1. 2013 Michigan State: -22.5 (+6/-25 on 57 plays)
2. 2013 Nebraska: -20.1 (+16/-35 on 64 plays)
3. 2021 Rutgers: -17.8 (+16/-30 on 53 plays)
4. 2014 Utah: -14.3 (+6/-20 on 66 plays)
5. 2014 Penn State: -13.5 (+6/-17 on 55 plays)
6. 2020 Michigan State: -12.9 (+7/-24 on 89 plays)
7. 2020 Wisconsin: -12.3 (+5/-13 on 44 plays)
8. 2021 Northwestern: -12.1 (+12/-33 on 92 plays)
9. 2012 Nebraska: -11.9 (+14/-26 on 68 plays)
10. 2013 Penn State (“27 for 27”): -11.4 (+18/-33 on 89 plays)
11. 2014 Michigan State: -11.3 (+7/-15 on 48 plays)

I would rather Gattis offenses stop making this list, but I’m not too mad. I went in saying Michigan should attack the edges and run play-action, which is what they did, but the Wildcats did a good job of scouting this game and their own weaknesses. The Anthony end-around is one example of their commitment to staunching the bleeding on the edges. They did it again when Michigan ran Bash, which is the play where the RB and QB threats flip. It’s been money this year because defenses have crashed the edges without fear of a QB keep. Suddenly that’s Blake Corum bypassing the DE and it’s a problem. Northwestern did not crash.

There was a tradeoff: You will note that McNamara had his beast zone read game yet this season. Those were all correct “give” reads that defenses heretofore were taking away. The give read above was wrong because Michigan flipped it and Northwestern still set up outside. Not every time—there were still crashes. But they varied it, which left fake-reading Michigan guessing very wrong instead of expecting to be wrong and ready to make something out of it anyways. Mind games.

Doubling up the edges also took away the counters to split zone. I mentioned Split Flow Counter earlier. I knock how Michigan usually runs this play but it should work if the defense is overcommitting to the gut. Northwestern brought an extra edge guy up to chip All on his way outside, which ruins the whole “get outside faster than a linebacker” thing that’s supposed to make this play go:

Northwestern changed their tendencies for this game—Michigan always gets your best shot—and Michigan came off a bye sticking to the things they’d already put on film. They have gotten better about adjusting to the ways opponents are attacking them, however. I think Gattis recognized that their tight ends were a key, so he put all the potential flow blockers to one side then ran a quick dive on the other side.

They also targeted gaps away from the split flow. The Haskins spin-o-rama play was a “split zone” but instead of trying to run off the tight end they had the tight end run off the defenders backside then hit a gap behind a double-team on the frontside.

Just look at all those defenders waiting where Split Zone usually goes.

But Gattis got no RPS for this because they also blitzed the safety into that gap. Charting is harsh, but the RPS rule is I attribute to the players everything I can, then RPS balances out the ledger. Haskins got the points, so the coach who put him in a position to do so doesn’t get the credit. Macdonald excels at that kind of RPS win, and he’s getting good press because of it, and in this case the same is true for Gattis. It’s not as bad as the number.

I would also be way more upset about it if we didn’t go into this game expecting Michigan to look past Northwestern. The end of the first half was extremely annoying, however, because by then the Wildcats’ tendencies were apparent and Michigan played into that by trying to run the clever things they prepared for the old tendencies. It came off like Scott Frost, and the result was a Scott Frost-ian three points from two drives that got to extra points range. I would also jump for joy if Gattis pulled some Scott Frost cleverness and it worked.

I think Northwestern also knew Michigan likes to use its play-action to attack deep but not intermediate routes, so they just let their linebackers and safeties play aggressively against the run, and told their cornerbacks to take as many penalties as they needed to live another day.

Michigan noticed and adjusted. While the first half featured their standard edge attack plans and bombs, the second half was much more about attacking between the tackles. Here again they chose to skip the gambles and run the new old base play. Welcome back good ol’ Pin and Pull!

Sam Webb had Jake Miller on his show yesterday morning, and they discussed this play as quintessential Michigan football. I…agree. You can do a search above for how often I used the term “turned” on one of these power plays. That’s what Vastardis did here, and it solves that whole issue of what to do about Northwestern varying what the edge defender is going to do. We won’t option him with the actual option game, but all of Michigan’s blockers (including Barnhart) were versed on optioning the edge, turning him inside if he ducked there, or kicking him out if he didn’t.

If I had to guess, they probably used the break to rep their power stuff against all kinds of looks. They were doing some advanced stuff with it again. Like here Honigford is letting the DE decide if he wants to be the one kicked or turned. Vastardis heads outside with this lead block and Corum doesn’t follow, because he likes All’s block better.

That kind of mid-play adjustment is what base plays are made of. It’s not an RPS win to run your base. You’re just good at it. You win matchups. Between getting good at running Power variants against any look, and planning clever things to do to Northwestern, which would you prefer they rep over the by week? I know my choice. I’ll also point out they made the same transition in 2019 (via my 2020 HTTV feature):

Go blue!

It’s too early to tell if they’ve made the same decision this year, but if so I very much support it. If they make the worst RPS score chart again next week, it will be a very different conversation.

Heroes?

The running backs, Erick All, and Chuck Filiaga.

Maybe not so heroic?

Barnhart, McNamara, Gattis vs teams Michigan can overlook.

What does it mean for Michigan State and beyond?

Cade until they can’t. But working in more stuff built just for McCarthy. If an insider told me that JJ isn’t ready I’d believe it, but I don’t have enough data on him yet, and that says something too.

But he can’t keep regressing. The bad reads went up, and the downfield throws weren’t just inaccurate; they were thrown to the wrong spot. And this wasn’t a defense that likes to confuse your reads.

That’s a pair of All-American-caliber RBs we’ve got there. I asked Brian on the podcast if he would rather have these two or Wheatley and Biakabutuka. I don’t think there’s another comparable duo in recent Michigan history, though I maintain this site would have been huge BJ Askew stans.

Erick All is our best tight end since Butt. I remember McKeon, who was an excellent player, struggling to make the blocks that All is making consistently. After the running backs he deserves the most credit for the consistent running game.

They could use a fullback. They’ve having the tight ends do it, but it’s not the best use of them.

The line is deep, let’s not go deeper. Barnhart is not where the top three guards are. Stueber looked shakier than his normal self, and they played Barnhart instead of moving him inside again, so they may not think Jones is ready to play tackle after all.

Now we’re playing with power. This game had the highest power to other stuff ratio yet, though it’s not quite on par with the 2019 offense. There were many variants, too many for them all to be called plays, which means who pulls is based on how the defense aligns, like how Vince Lombardi did it.

Hello Andrel Anthony. Looking forward to seeing the East Lansing native again.

Your Moment of Zen:

It’ll be basketball season for someone very soon.