Member for

5 years 8 months
Points
6251.00

Recent Comments

Date Title Body
12/18/2018 - 3:54pm Edwards was bigger and…

Edwards was bigger and faster than Higdon will test, and was an undrafted free agent.

12/18/2018 - 3:42pm While I agree that the money…

While I agree that the money argument is stupid - the athletic department isn't really financially independent from the university.

 

Financially SEPERATE from a book keeping perspective - yes, but not financially independent.

12/18/2018 - 3:35pm Just like Darron Lee...

 

Just like Darron Lee...

 

Solomon: 6', 180lbs, 4.8 40

Darron Lee: 6'2", 195lbs, 4.6 40 as a recruit (ending up at 6'3", 225lbs, 4.43 40 at the combine)

 

 

 

12/18/2018 - 10:15am You tell them "Welcome to…

You tell them "Welcome to the real world".

 

Some people are naturally skinny and can eat anything. Some people have to watch every calorie and work out.

Some people excel in academics without ever studying. Some people have to spend hours every day studying just to get by.

 

In the real world, it's the sum total of your talents/efficiencies and your work ethic that matters. If you miss half the time, but sell 3x as much as anyone else on the team... well, bosses make exceptions for "rainmakers".

 

12/18/2018 - 9:57am " What if you’ve got a 5*…

" What if you’ve got a 5* player who is super talented, but completely lazy and all but refuses to do more than the bare minimum, do you play him anyway? "

 

Does playing him give you the best chance to win?

12/18/2018 - 8:37am " What if the injured player…

" What if the injured player isn’t putting out as much as expected during his rehab?  Should he remain where he was before simply because he used to be highly rated. "

 

If he is still the player that gives the team the best chance to win - yes.

12/18/2018 - 8:35am " Every rep, every lift,…

" Every rep, every lift, every play is graded and repped. "

 

Sure... but are we grading (and using for personnel decisions) a number of things with highly suspect predictive validity?

 

Just because you have and use an objective measure - doesn't mean it's a good one.

12/18/2018 - 8:30am " But Harbaugh's job is to…

" But Harbaugh's job is to put the most competitive college football team on the field each week, and if a guy's not practicing or not practicing hard, he probably gets skipped over for someone who is. "

 

Problem is - that may not be the way to put the most competitive college football team on the field each week.

12/18/2018 - 8:22am " I personally would love to…

" I personally would love to see our team in a place where there is a high enough level of experience, skill, professionalism, and consistency at the top that it is extremely difficult to break into the rotation without a great deal of effort at assimilating the knowledge and being assimilated into the system. And of course, the end game is to be doing this without sacrificing any athleticism. "

I'm afraid that unicorn may very well be impossible. I think in general it's a continuum you have to choose a point along.

12/17/2018 - 7:55am 4.8 will be a touch slow,…

4.8 will be a touch slow, but not awful - assuming he can maintain that speed and put on 20-40 lbs (depending on whether he is really 190 or 177).

 

If he is really 6', 177 and running a 4.8 though... that is kinda worrisome. So hopefully the testing numbers are just off.

12/14/2018 - 11:20am I said it's A determining…

I said it's A determining factor - not THE determining factor.

 

Even if we were winning every game - the tickets would still be overpriced. The experience is nowhere near worth the cost.

 

...and it's EASY for me to get to games, and I could easily afford it.

12/13/2018 - 1:11pm It's a determining factor…

It's a determining factor for me.

 

I live in Ann Arbor, I'm an alumnus, I work for the University, my wife works for the University, and we're well within the top 10% of household incomes.

 

I haven't been to a game in 5 years.

12/12/2018 - 3:22pm 10 lbs lighter than Mo Hurst…

10 lbs lighter than Mo Hurst is playing at, with a frame capable of putting on more weight than Hurst.

12/12/2018 - 12:58pm " Tyree Jackson, Buffalo (6…

" Tyree Jackson, Buffalo (6-6, 248, 4.88) "

That dude went to my high school... 20 years after I graduated.

12/12/2018 - 12:53pm Brent Venables.

Brent Venables.

12/12/2018 - 12:40pm Clowney ran 4.53 at 266.

Clowney ran 4.53 at 266.

Ansah ran 4.63 at 271.

Jordan Willis ran 4.53 at 260 - he was a 3rd round pick.

 

I suspect Gary will put up numbers similar to Bradley Chubb, but college production and injury concerns will drop him a few more spots.

12/12/2018 - 12:31pm Bingo.

He'll measure great…

Bingo.

He'll measure great... but he has an injury history (2 of 3 seasons with a shoulder injury), he isn't an edge rusher in the NFL, and his stats don't show an elite pass rusher.

 

He's a 10-20 range pick.

 

 

12/12/2018 - 12:28pm 1) Ansah and Clowney were…

1) Ansah and Clowney were both edge rushers. Gary is not.

 

2)

Clowney: 47 TFL, 24 sacks, 9 FF in 36 games

Gary: 23 TFL, 9.5 sacks, 1 FF in 34 games

 

3) I suspect at the combine Gary will test heavier and stronger, but less quick and explosive than Ansah and Clowney.

 

4) Ansah was over drafted.

 

12/11/2018 - 10:07am Dutch Dragon

Golden Goat

Dutch Dragon

Golden Goat

12/10/2018 - 11:06am " Shea was allowed to use…

" Shea was allowed to use his natural talents at Ole Miss, the only discernable difference between his Soph year there and this past season was he cut his interceptions nearly in half under Harbaugh, same production. "

 

Attempts per game:

2017: 37

2018: 24

 

Yards per game:

2017: 323

2018: 197

 

Interception rate went down significantly, TD rate stayed about the same... but way less attempts means almost all counting stats were WAY down.

12/10/2018 - 10:56am " Harbaugh strikes me as a…

" Harbaugh strikes me as a guy who believes deeply that righteousness will always prevail "

 

So he is completely and utterly delusional, and ignorant of all human history?

 

Doesn't seem like an especially useful set of qualities for a football coach.

12/09/2018 - 8:44am Pass attempts per game rank:…

Pass attempts per game rank:

2015: 66 of 130

2016: 94

2017: 98

2018: 107

12/07/2018 - 12:28pm Pass attempts per game rank:…

Pass attempts per game rank:

2015: #66 of 130

2016: #94

2017: #98

2018: #107

 

Since Harbaugh has been here we've never even finished in the top 50% of college football in pass attempts per game. Not with Rudock, not with Speight, not with last years mess, and not with Patterson.

 

...and the trend doesn't create much optimism - with the best QB he's had, he threw the least.

 

12/06/2018 - 2:18pm " The alley-oop - did he…

" The alley-oop - did he throw it to himself? He jumped, the ball was out of his reach. "

Yes... because he has 1/2 the vertical leap of Bill Laimbeer.

 

The guy, unlike DJ Wilson, doesn't have the physical gifts to ever be more than a couple minutes a game end of bench guy.

 

12/06/2018 - 2:03pm Hollis-Jefferson shot 52%…

Hollis-Jefferson shot 52% from 2 and 70% FT in college.

Roberson shot 55% from 2, 36% from 3, and 58% FT in college - while averaging almost 12 REB a game.

Stanley Johnson shot 48% from 2, 37% from 3, and 74% FT in college.

 

College PER:

Hollis-Jefferson: 21.1

Roberson: 23.5

Johnson: 22.5

Mathews: 16.5

 

Mathews is 54% from 2, 31% from 3, and 54% FT. He's basically a slightly worse Roberson, with less rebounding ability.

12/05/2018 - 9:35am " He's not the disaster that…

" He's not the disaster that he's being made out to be. "

 

7 minutes.

3 fouls.

1 turnover.

1 badly blown alley oop.

 

It's pretty bad.

12/01/2018 - 8:19am In 2015 Michigan was #53 in…

In 2015 Michigan was #53 in D1 in passing yards per game.

 

Worse than Illinois, and 0.4 yards per game better than Purdue.

11/30/2018 - 4:00pm Well... it turns out that…

Well... it turns out that high ranked tackle recruits that are college weight (or heavier) in high school are the most likely to bust relative to recruiting rankings.

11/30/2018 - 2:43pm If I agreed to it when I…

If I agreed to it when I took the job, choosing it over alternatives which pay cash... then yes, absolutely adequately compensated.

 

...just like NCAA players can play in the CFL or numerous semi-pro leagues straight out of high school, but CHOOSE to play in the NCAA because they feel the non-monetary compensation in college is better than the monetary compensation in the pro leagues in which they can play.

11/30/2018 - 1:56pm 20 hours of work per for:

20 hours of work per for:

Tuition, Room and Board, stipend, training table, access to tutors, access to weight staff and workout facilities, etc., etc.

Tuition and Room and Board, by itself, is ~$32,000 - $45,000 per year.

~35 weeks * 20 hours...

$45.71 - $64.29 per hour.

A $90K-$130K a year job at that rate if worked full time - and we're ignoring everything other than tuition and room/board.

 

 

I worked 18 hours a week when I was at Michigan. I made $8/hour. That is about $12.25 adjusted for inflation.

 

 

11/29/2018 - 11:28am " We threw the ball a higher…

" We threw the ball a higher percentage of the time than Georgia did this year and comparable percentage of the time to Oklahoma and Notre Dame.  "

Yes.

 

The problem isn't so much run-pass mix... it's the fact that we are PAINFULLY unexplosive.

Oklahoma averages 14 yards per pass attempt and 7 yards per rush attempt.

Georgia averages 11 and 6.5.

We average 9 and 5.

11/28/2018 - 9:47am " But damn folks - is anyone…

" But damn folks - is anyone honestly upset at an offense that averages 38.6 points a game? "

 

When it should be averaging 48 with a modern offense given competition levels - sure.

 

Our offense wasn't bad - but it wasn't good, and it massively under utilizes talent. It requires HIGH efficiency to achieve medium results - because it is woefully unexplosive.

11/26/2018 - 6:31pm Gary played 3x as many snaps…

Gary played 3x as many snaps as Boss last year to get those 50% more tackles 

11/26/2018 - 5:01pm 4th or 5th DL off the board,…

4th or 5th DL off the board, somewhere between picks 15-25.

11/26/2018 - 4:58pm Patterson would not be a day…

Patterson would not be a day 2 pick. He is not a 2nd-3rd round pick... more like 6-7th at this point.

11/26/2018 - 8:36am " I think the resistance to…

" I think the resistance to opening up the passing game is still a lack of confidence in Michigan's OL, and that is certainly justified based on Saturday.  "

Yes... but a lot of that can be mitigated by using lots of fast developing routes off 1 and 3 step drops. Slants, outs, lots of crossing stuff with picks, rub routes, screens of a dozen sorts, etc., etc.

11/26/2018 - 8:32am The "get the play in early…

The "get the play in early enough so that you aren't rushing up to the line with 10 seconds on the play clock" play would be nice.

 

They don't need a huge turn from the norm - they need a huge turn TO the norm.

11/26/2018 - 8:22am " What do you do to overcome…

" What do you do to overcome that if you can't get the quarterback off his spot and always throwing clean. "

 

You realize their offense is going to score a ton of points - so you'd better get really, really aggressive and try to outscore them.

11/25/2018 - 9:03am Michigan will have ONE 1st…

Michigan will have ONE 1st rounder, and maybe 3 guys taken in rounds 1-4 total. 

11/07/2018 - 7:44am ...but those offer lists are…

...but those offer lists are based purely on observation.

 

In a lot of ways, the recruiting analysts are just acting in the same way in which poll aggregators act.

11/04/2018 - 6:18am The crown is 360 degrees…

The crown is 360 degrees around the helmet, above the level of the top of the facemask. If it's above the facemask on the helmet... front, side, or back - it's the crown. 

11/04/2018 - 6:15am The explanation is that you…

The explanation is that you CAN launch at a defenseless player as long as the forceful contact isn't to the head/neck area.

DPJ was defenseless.

The defender launched

...but the ruling was that the forceful contact was shoulder to chest, and that the head contact was secondary, incidental (and thus not "forceful") contact.

10/31/2018 - 11:34am The Grand Haven Beach and…

The Grand Haven Beach and Boardwalk suck... head to Muskegon or Ludington for a MUCH better lake area experience.

10/30/2018 - 11:07am Yes.

It comes from the…

Yes.

It comes from the inhabitants of Rio de Janeiro (called Carioca). The footwork is called that because it resembles a Samba dance step (Samba Carioca) invented by Carioca.

 

10/29/2018 - 1:53pm " For Michigan, the pool to…

" For Michigan, the pool to pick from starts smaller. It takes significant effort to find the right recruits. That is why I trust guys like Harbaugh and Warriner to be able to find the right matches for all five positions on the line and turn them into a cohesive unit."

 

Harbaugh and Warriner think those 5* guys are the right recruits - or they wouldn't prioritize them over the 3/4* guys they have been getting.

 

In general, Harbaugh/Warriner aren't prioritizing the lower ranked guy - they're settling after they fail to land the bigger fish.

 

In cases where the coaches believe the lower ranked guy is better - I trust them. In cases where the coaches believe the higher ranked guy is better but settle for the lower ranked guy - I still trust their evaluation that the 5* guy was better.

10/29/2018 - 12:43pm For the 2018 draft, rounds 1…

For the 2018 draft, rounds 1-3:

 

Mason Cole - 4* (almost 5*)

Quinton Nelson - 4* (almost 5*)

Braden Smith - 4* (almost 5*)

Isaiah Wynn - 4* (almost 5*)

Frank Ragnow - 4*

Billy Price - 4* (DT)

Mike McGlinchey - 4*

Martinas Rankin - 4*

Connor Williams - 3*

Kolton Miller - 3*

Brian O'Neill - 3* (TE)

Geron Christian - 3*

Orlando Brown - 3*

Joseph Noteboom - 3* (SDE)

Chukwuma Okorafor - 3*

Alex Cappa - NR

Will Hernandez - NR

Brandon Parker - NR

Austin Corbett - NR

10/29/2018 - 12:22pm "It would be interesting to…

"It would be interesting to breakdown the number of OL drafted over the past 10 years and how many of them are actually 5*. "

 

For all players, not just OL - 2014 recruiting class vs. 2018 draft: 

5-star: 57.6% drafted
4-star: 23.6% drafted
3-star: 6.9% drafted
2-star: 1.1% drafted

2013 recruiting class vs. 2017 draft:

5-star: 65.7% drafted
4-star: 23% drafted
3-star: 5% drafted
2-star: 1.4% drafted

 

 

 

 

10/29/2018 - 12:07pm " I am far more interested…

" I am far more interested is who the coaches pick and bring in and the play on the field. "

 

The coaches usually pick those 5* players. The coaches prioritize those 5* players. The coaches settle for those lower ranked players because they struck out on the 5* players.

 

If the coaches CHOOSE a 3* over a 5* - then I agree that I'm more interested in the coaches opinion than recruiting services... but in general, that is not what is happening.

10/29/2018 - 12:02pm " Have you seen what…

" Have you seen what Warriner has done with Runyan Jr over the course of the season? "

Yes - turned from a MAC level turnstile into a mediocre P5 starter.

Considering what he has done with Runyan - what do you think he could do with Jonah Williams, Greg Little, or Dalton Risner? Maybe a touch better than he could do with Runyan?

10/29/2018 - 9:52am 1. We have one. Trente Jones…

1. We have one. Trente Jones. We've currently got one 4* (Jones) and two 3* (Barnhart, Stewart)... and both those 3* (along with Filiaga) look to be guards at the next level.

 

4. OT recruiting is not going "extremely well". Alabama with a 5* and two 4* actual tackle recruits is doing extremely well... we're just doing ok, and still taking a few too many inside guys and not enough tackles.