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Date Title Body
07/16/2018 - 1:00pm Something like 80% of D1…

Something like 80% of D1 schools LOSE money on their football program.

Something like 80% of players, even on teams which turn a profit - are compensated well beyond their value added to the team.

Probably less than the top 5% of players are under compensated. If the top 30 teams were all making money, and we assumed 22 players per team were undercompensated - that would be about 5% of D1 players.

07/12/2018 - 11:15am That Tony Boles game was my…

That Tony Boles game was my first Michigan game ever.

06/26/2018 - 11:12am Well... Higdon was committed…

Well... Higdon was committed to Iowa before Michigan, and Hudson was committed to PSU before Michigan.

 

Evans had Illinois, Purdue, and Michigan State offers before committing to Michigan.

Higdon had Wake Forest, USF, Iowa, Arkansas, Duke, and Nevada offers before committing to Michigan.

Hudson had West Virginia, Pitt, Temple, Penn. St., Michigan State, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Nebraska offers before committing to Michigan.

 

06/26/2018 - 9:20am 48% of 5 star players go…

48% of 5 star players go undrafted.

Only 17.4% of 5 star players are 1st round picks.

Retention rate (making an active roster more than 1/2 of seasons played) is about 75% for drafted 5 star players.

 

So Gholston has arguably done better than about 87% of 5 star recruits. Hard to call that a bust.

 

06/26/2018 - 9:07am Lets not be hyperbolic…

Lets not be hyperbolic... while all three of those guys were 3* - all were ranked better than #500, and all had pretty good D1 offer lists.

Higdon was committed to Iowa before we grabbed him, and Hudson was committed to Penn. St. before we grabbed him.

Chris Evans -

3*

#383 in country/#9 All Purpose Back

offers from: Purdue, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan State, Minnesota, Ohio State

 

Karan Higdon -

3*

#484 in country/#40 RB

offers from:  Arizona, Arkansas, Duke, FAU, Iowa, Kentucky, Maryland, Tennessee

 

Khaleke Hudson -

3*

#386 in country/#20 Safety

offers from: Penn. St., Pitt, UCLA, Va. Tech, Boston College, Illinois, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Carolina, Rutgers, West Virginia, Wisconsin

06/25/2018 - 11:41am I'd say that in general the…

I'd say that in general the fact that he's running the 400m, and not the 100m - indicates he isn't all that "track fast".

You'll have a hard time finding 400m times for any running backs - because they are almost all 100m/200m guys.

He's an 11.3 100m guy - which is pretty fast for his size, but nothing insane. Ziggy Ansah ran 10.9 at 6'6", 260 lbs.

 

 

 

 

06/25/2018 - 9:41am If 50.11 finishes second -…

If 50.11 finishes second - it isn't a "very high level of competition", especially in a state like California.

Over 1,500 high school runners ran faster in the 2018 outdoor season.

Michigan had over 30 HS runners go faster.

 

Which is why him finishing 13th, in the slowest of the 3 400m races, makes sense. He ran in the "open" race - which was all the people whose qualifying marks didn't get them invited to the "invitational" race.

06/25/2018 - 8:28am 50.11 is fast - especially…

50.11 is fast - especially for 220lbs... but:

 

1) If 50.11 finishes #2 in a meet - it isn't a "very high level of competition"

2) It appears he really finished 13th, in one of 3 different 400m races. The winner of the fastest race ran 47.12

 

 

06/21/2018 - 3:04pm I had Bubble Stash a few…

I had Bubble Stash a few years ago when we were visiting Portland, and it was definitely awesome.

06/20/2018 - 12:40pm Chesson was 4.47 in the 40…

Chesson was 4.47 in the 40 going into the NFL.

 

Branham is definitely not slow - he's dang fast for a HS Freshman, but that 40 time still gets a bunch of fakes.

06/20/2018 - 10:58am He's definitely fast - but I…

He's definitely fast - but I don't think he's low 4.4x fast.

 

Given that he doesn't even run the 100m, and given his fastest not wind aided 200m is around mid 22.x

 

I'd guess he's more like a low 4.5x 40.

06/18/2018 - 7:45am ... because Germany has to…

... because Germany has to be the biggest bunch of whiners ever?

They beg for and complain about calls more than Lebron.

 

06/15/2018 - 7:35pm Michigan RB who had over…

Michigan RB who had over 1500 yards in career and averaged over 5 yards per carry:

 

Tyrone Wheatley: 6.1

T. Biakabatuka: 6.0

Rob Lytle: 5.9

Tony Boles: 5.7

Leroy Hoard: 5.4

Jamie Morris: 5.4

Butch Woolfolk: 5.4

Gordon Bell: 5.4

Steve Smith: 5.3

Billy Taylor: 5.2

Harlan Huckleby: 5.2

Lawrence Ricks: 5.1

 

 

 

 

06/15/2018 - 3:35pm I might put them in a…

I might put them in a different order... but I agree with the top 3 on that list.

06/14/2018 - 7:57am Benton Harbor, Muskegon, and…

Benton Harbor, Muskegon, and Saginaw are all below the 50K population cutoff.

06/11/2018 - 9:15am Need:

1) Edit functionality…

Need:

1) Edit functionality

2) New post indicator

3) Main page MGoBoard list ordered by thread most recently commented, not most recently created

4) Way, way, way less whitespace

5) Way to set user preference for number of posts and order that are sticky

6) Much smaller banner on main page

7) Smaller line spacing/pics/whitespace so you can get more than 1/4 of one article per page on Mainpage

 

06/08/2018 - 12:36pm Absolutely live real close…

Absolutely live real close to where you work... or the commute will be insane.

06/04/2018 - 8:06am Two of Milton's receivers

Two of Milton's receivers last year were 3* prospects that ended up signing with FBS teams.

 

Milton didn't have amazing HS receivers - but he wasn't throwing to complete scrubs either.

05/24/2018 - 12:30pm 48% completion percentage

48% completion percentage against high school competition.

14.6 yards per completion (so he wasn't throwing 80 yard bombs all the time)

Two of his receivers were 3* recruits who signed with FBS schools.

 

 

05/23/2018 - 3:49pm Total QBR for top 20 of that

Total QBR for top 20 of that list

1)Will Grier - 75.8 (#19)
2)Tua Tagovailoa - 86.5 (NR)
3)Trace McSorley - 81.5 (#9)
4)Khalil Tate - 92 (#2)
5)McKenzie Milton - 84.1 (#5)
6)Drew Lock - 74.4 (#20)
7)Jake Browning - 71.9 (#28)
8)Justin Herbert - 80.1 (#12)
9)Jarrett Stidham - 67.2 (#39)
10)Nick Fitzgerald - 78.5 (#14)
11)Jake Fromm - 84.1 (#6)
12)Brian Lewerke - 77.7 (#15)
13)Ryan Finley - 80.4 (#11)
14)Jake Bentley - 65.1 (#45)
15)Shea Patterson - 58.7 (#60)
16)Mason Fine - 56.8 (#65)
17)Brett Rypien - 69.7 (#32)
18)Brent Stockstill - 45.6 (#91)
19)Josh Jackson - 60.3 (#57)
20)Kelly Bryant - 77.6 (#17)

05/23/2018 - 3:33pm ...and that should tell you

...and that should tell you just how pointless the standard QB rating is at evaluating low volume players.

 

Peters per game numbers before bowl game:

7.4 completions
12.8 attempts
57.8% completion ratio
97.2 passing yards
0.8 TD
0 INT
2.4 rushing attempts
-5 yards rushing
0 rushing TD

 

Lewerke per game numbers:

18.9 completions
32.1 attempts
59% completion ratio
214.8 passing yards
1.5 TD
0.5 INT
9.5 rushing attempts
43 yards rushing
0.4 rushing TD

Lewerke is giving you 166 more yards and 1.1 more TD per game in exchange for 0.5 INT per game. I'll take that trade anytime.

 

05/23/2018 - 1:25pm WR while Milton was a starter

WR while Milton was a starter at Olympia(2015/16-2017/18):

 

Jordan Underwood: 3 star, signed with FIU

Shane Hooks: 3 star, signed with Ohio

Jeff James: 3 star, signed with Miami (YTM)

 

05/23/2018 - 1:05pm Lewerke based on their body

Lewerke based on their body of work so far.

05/23/2018 - 1:03pm He was #15 in the country

He was #15 in the country last year in Total QBR at 77.7

 

Average Total QBR last year was about 57.

 

Shea Patterson was 58.8.

O'Korn was 39.5

Peters was 35.4

Speight was 22.9

 

He isn't great - but he is well above average.

05/23/2018 - 9:48am Rashan Gary is very, very,

Rashan Gary is very, very, very good.

...but so far he hasn't been even the best college DL from his HS class. He was rated as the #1 overall prospect.

 

That means - based on his HS recuiting rankings, he was overrated.

 

05/21/2018 - 9:59pm Yep... and his first name is

Yep... and his first name is Dalbert.

Pulled one of my wisdom teeth.

05/17/2018 - 10:11am Actually - an album is a

Actually - an album is a collection of anything... see "photo album".

05/11/2018 - 3:27pm Those other people don't get

Those other people don't get free tuition, room and board, healthcare, etc.

Those other people pay taxes on what they receive.

Those other people can be fired.

05/11/2018 - 3:23pm "They're not paid

"They're not paid enough."

 

There are approximately 11,000 scholarship football players in FBS. Maybe 100-200 of them are compensated below market value.

 

The other 10,000+ are being compensated at above market value.

05/10/2018 - 7:51am What the bleachers only one

What the bleachers only one side?

Or the 2/3 of a track?

 

Funny story - my HS track coach went to Muskegon, and still holds the mile record on their track... because the year after he graduated - they got rid of their home track and just no longer ever had home track meets.

 

05/03/2018 - 3:26pm "1.  The more 'complex'

"1.  The more 'complex' offense in 2016 was comparitively much better."

It was much "older"... and it still wasn't good enough to compete for national championships.

 

"2.  The most complex offensive game plan of 2017 (OSU game) was the best game plan of the year. "

 

The game plan for OSU broke tendencies a lot more than many other games - but the offense was no more or less complex.

 

"He is going to have to win the chess match against OSU's DC."

Yes.

 

" Hard to do that with a simple play book. "

Not necessarily.

 

 

05/03/2018 - 12:45pm "A simple offense is not the

"A simple offense is not the way for M to have a top 20 offense."

 

OSU has had 3 top 10 offenses (and 5 of 5 in the top 25) the last 5 years.

Complexity only has value if it improves results - there is no real evidence that "simple" college offenses are any less successful than complex one, and a good bit of evidence that complex offenses are less consistently successful.

 

"You really think JH will have a better offense this year is he goes back to the Lloyd Carr 8 plays in the playbook (at least actually used in games) approach?  That is a great way to squander Patterson's talent.  "

 

Ole Miss ran a "simple" offense compared to Michigan. They were the #13 (2016) and #9 (2017) S&P+ offense in the country with Shea Patterson.

 

"Again, complexity was not the among the main causes of the terrible 2017 offense. "

A complex offense exacerbates the effects of youth and inexperience.

05/03/2018 - 10:24am "The offense in 2016 (the

"The offense in 2016 (the year Michigan set a school record and lead the Big Ten in average per game scoring)"

 

The offense in 2016 was the #40 ranked S&P+ offense in the country.

 

You pretty much need a top 20 S&P+ offense (and a top 20 S&P+ defense) to win a national championship.

 

The 2016 offense scored a record number of points... by running up the score on really bad teams.

 

"But if people want to see JH abandon the concept of a playbook that is complex enough to keep opposing Ds unable to guess what is coming,"

 

I don't care whether opposing Ds know what is coming - I care whether they can stop what is coming.

05/03/2018 - 7:58am Plus Ruddock wasn't really

Plus Ruddock wasn't really all that different of a QB at Michigan than he was at Iowa.

 

Rudock last year at Iowa:
61.7% completions, 2436 yards, 16TD, 5 INT, 7.1 Y/A
133.5 QB rating

 

Rudock last year at Iowa adjusted for increase in pass attempts:
61.7% completions, 2748 yards, 18TD, 6 INT, 7.1 Y/A
133.2 QB rating

 

Rudock at Michigan:
64.0% completions, 3017 yards, 20TD, 9 INT, 7.8 Y/A
141.1 QB rating

05/03/2018 - 7:55am Harbaugh S&P+

Harbaugh S&P+ rankings:

 

2007: Stanford - #83

2008: Stanford - #31

2009: Stanford - #6

2010: Stanford - #3

2015: Michigan - #38

2016: Michigan - #40

2017: Michigan - #85

 

Harbaugh has really only been a fantastic offensive coach when he had SO/JR Andrew Luck (and David Shaw).

 

05/03/2018 - 7:50am "When his offense is clicking

"When his offense is clicking it’s working really well."

 

Outside of Andrew Luck SO/JR years - Harbaugh has never had a top 25 S&P+ offense.

 

I'm afraid it appears his offense might need a generational talent to "click".

05/01/2018 - 4:04pm When we're only looking at

When we're only looking at top 400 recruits, and then comparing them to total population in the NFL (not only counting NFL players who were in that those "top 400" groups") - I'm not sure that would necessarily hold true.

 

I doubt state football output is particularly position specific - but I'd bet the "top 400" list is, and I'd bet the percentage currently active in the NFL from the earlier years of the 12 years of blue chips they're considering is.

05/01/2018 - 12:58pm Almost any subjective measure

Almost any subjective measure you choose will be subject to some bias.

 

...but using "current NFL players" vs. a 12 year sample of blue chip recruits skews towards:

 

1) Positions with longer careers

2) Positions valued by the NFL

 

If Texas churns out a ton of really good college QBs of the JT Barrett type, and really good high volume RBs - this is exactly the sort of result you'd expect, even though the rankings could be very good at evaluating the transition from HS to college.

05/01/2018 - 12:44pm Total number of NFL players

Total number of NFL players is a bit of a crappy proxy to use for calculating how good recruiting rankings are...

 

1) Recruiting rankings are about how good a college player the dude is supposed to be - and being very different games means very good college players aren't necessarily NFL players.

2) They're looking at 12 years of recruits vs. active NFL players. Given the short length of NFL careers, and the skew in career lengths by position - this seems like it would add a lot of error.

 

A much better proxy would be something like total college All Americans vs. number of blue chip recruits.

04/27/2018 - 8:26am PFF loved him.
 
Scored him

PFF loved him.

 

Scored him as best center in the country the last two years, and ranked him the second best OL in the draft after Nelson.

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/draft-frank-ragnow-the-forgotten-…

04/27/2018 - 8:20am Ummm...
 
"Ragnow

Ummm...

 

"Ragnow participated in nine of Arkansas' twelve games as a freshman, playing as a center."

"As a junior, Ragnow started 12 games as the Hogs' center"

"He played as the starting center as a senior in 2017"

 

He was a 3 year starter, with two years at center... played 33 games at center. Started 24 games at center.

 

...and:

 

"Ragnow may not be able to match Nelson’s 2017 grade, but he has back-to-back seasons with a mark of 93.7 or better. In fact, those back-to-back seasons represent the two highest graded seasons for a center in the four years PFF has graded every game of college at the FBS level."

 

04/26/2018 - 8:05am They aren't.
They are only

They aren't.

They are only required to do so if they choose to play a sport in the NCAA.

 

They don't have to play a sport.

They have other options than college if they wish to.

 

Basketball players can play professionally - either in the G League or overseas if they feel their market value is more than playing in the NCAA.

Football players can play professionally - either in the CFL or numerous semi-pro leagues if they feel their market value is more than playing in the NCAA.

 

04/25/2018 - 6:55pm "The scholarship + costs

"The scholarship + costs model doesn't represent the market value of the student athlete's participation on the team."

 

Correct. For 99.9% of college athletes it greatly exceeds the market value.

04/23/2018 - 10:56am Among current NFL

Among current NFL starters:

11 didn't play or didn't play enough to judge - Joe Flacco, Nathan Peterman, Cam Newton, Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Tannehill, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Eli Manning, Derek Carr, Carson Wentz, Alex Smith

1 played worse - Matt Ryan

2 played about the same - Kirk Cousins, Mitch Trubisky

18 played better - Deshaun Watson, Jameis Winston, Sam Bradford, Marcus Mariota, Blake Bortles, Pat Mahomes, Case Keenum, Ben Roethlisberger, Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, Jimmy Garoppolo, Teddy Bridgewater, Dak Prescott, Phil Rivers, Jared Goff, Tyrod Taylor, Andy Dalton, Matt Stafford

04/23/2018 - 8:34am Freshman/RS

Freshman/RS Freshman/Sophomores who had never played before 2017
More than 500 yards passing
Higher QBR than Peters:

 

Dwayne Haskins
KJ Costello
Tua Tagovailoa
Jake Fromm
Nick Starkel
Devon Modster
Jon Wassink
Nathan Rourke
Kenny Pickett
Charlie Brewer
Josh Jackson
Zeb Noland
Jarret Doege
Rex Culpepper
Anthony Brown
Armani Rogers
Cole Kelley
Luke Skipper
Peyton Ramsey
Kellen Mond
Skylar Thompson
Sam Ehlinger
James Blackman
Tevaka Tuioti
Marcus Childers
Feleipe Franks

 

04/23/2018 - 8:28am A bad season last year

A bad season last year absolutely doesn't mean Peters won't end up being a good college player.

 

That being said - Peters was NOT good last year.

 

At a quick count, among Freshman/RS Freshman/Sophomores who had never played before last year and threw for at least 500 yards...

 

Peters was #26 in QBR.

 

 

04/19/2018 - 12:15pm 1993-1998
Had a job. Worked

1993-1998

Had a job. Worked 10-15 hours a week during semester, worked full time in summers.

Mostly lived a ways off campus, with roommates - 4 people in a 2 bedroom for a couple years.

Pooled money with roommates to buy groceries and actually coooked meals.

Didn't eat out often, and when I did it was usually cheap delivery pizza or Chinese.

Learn when/where all the free appetizer deals and cheap drinks are.

 

04/19/2018 - 12:07pm I was a student

I was a student 1993-1998.

 

At that time undergrad 1st year enrollment was required to be 75% Michigan residents.

04/19/2018 - 8:12am http://mgoblog.com/content/pr

http://mgoblog.com/content/preview-2017-heuristics-and-stupid-prediction

 

Worst Case Barring Extreme Injury Scenarios

This is another year where Michigan has a lot of games they should win. I can't find it now but I saw that one sportsbook had season lines up and only four games were less than two touchdown spreads. 8-4.

Best Case

Michigan can enter the OSU game undefeated if they win those 14-point spread games, beat a Florida team that may arrive in Dallas with only six eligible players, and win at Penn State and Wisconsin, teams that exploded into dust with one glance at a Don Brown defense. And yeah they have a shot at OSU at home. 12-0.

Final Verdict

Not a lot of drama here. They've got four games with relatively tight spreads and they're likely to split those games. I do think Michigan should expect to beat Florida, PSU, and Wisconsin, but by "expect to beat" I mean "there is a 60-65% chance Michigan wins against team X". They should expect to lose to OSU, but in a 40-60 kind of way. 10-2 is right down the middle, then, as there's always a chance that football does football things to you and Michigan is suddenly faced with a feisty Piggy or something.

04/12/2018 - 7:38am His complaint:
"The offense

His complaint:

"The offense was bad, and no one warned us about it - particularly this blog"

 

Your response:

"Spring hype is BS, and we painted an even rosier picture than what we were getting from insiders"

 

You pretty much confirmed and validated his complaint.

 

"How accurate are we supposed to be?"

As accurate as you can be. Not "paint(ing) a happier picture than what we got".