You need me to carry the hype this week? [Patrick Barron]

Football Bits: Knowing is Half the Battle Comment Count

Seth April 17th, 2024 at 12:55 PM

The system for depth charting:

Icon

Name

Meaning

Rock Star

Player is an All-American/1st rounder/bends the game around him.

Dude

Trusted good starter. Probably All-B10 or in the running.

Guy

Playable B10-caliber guy, very fine in a rotation.

Iffy

Probably don't want him playing extended snaps at this point.

And if his name's in red they plan to redshirt him.

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Quarterback

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Can your friends pull this out their little haaaat? [Bryan Fuller]

The question we're asking is: Would Orji be really mad if we look in the portal?

But they're acting like it's: How cool does Orji look in pads?

What are we hearing? Orji has some wow moments, and the next moment he'll throw another pick. Devin Gardner went to a practice then went on with Sam. Orji:

he looks like a GI Joe… like an action figure (with) a Michigan uniform on, and obviously a bigger version. This dude is built like a rock. When you say hey, what do I want the athlete to look like? That's exactly what it should look like. … The thing for Orji is he's got all the talent in the world, man. (But) you see some opportunities in practice where he missed some throws that… man… you want him to make that throw.

GI Joe like he's shooting blue lasers?

He has some things where his feet aren't always in the right place. His feet aren't as clean as you want them to be. Sometimes you lose accuracy, and you lose timing.

Then Semaj Morgan joined them.

I feel like every quarterback has their unique quality. Orji he just a freak athlete; anything you can think about in a football player he probably can do. Then we got Davis Warren like strong powerful arm, and he's really fast; he be running 22 miles per hour when we run Sprints. Then we got Jayden Denegal; he can throw the ball real accurate. And he big; he can run you over—he's gonna get that first down when we need it. Then we got Jaydyn Davis although very young he's very well-rounded. And I will tell you he's not scared to throw the ball, and that's that's something that I love about a quarterback. I don't care what the coverage is; I don't care who's on me; if you feel like the person in front of me's not better than me, throw me that ball! Jayden Davis understands that.

In the aftermath, Sam devoted a 3R Report($) that said they've been focusing on dropback passing with Orji, and also that Jayden Denegal's struggles didn't continue past the first four practices.

There was clear separation between Orji and him at that point, but not as much since then. He's closed the gap in recent practices with his improved accuracy and has shown better skills on the move than outside observers might expect at first glance.

Davis Warren has a cannon that can't hit the broad side of NCAA hypocrisy, and Jadyn Davis is not going to be put in a position to jeopardize his future, but his accuracy is excellent, especially on the run. From a practice insider, Orji is still in the driver's seat but there's going to be a major drop-off from McCarthy. Botched snaps, interceptions, and plays where the QB doesn't see anything and starts to panic are things that happen to teams that don't have JJ under center, in case you've forgotten, but they've been jarring to some of the used-to-JJ the people seeing them in practice.

Tuttle's still hurt, but Michigan is expected to poke around the portal, which opened this week, and wherein Chris Hummer thinks Michigan will have their pick of the litter. 247's Matt Zenitz adds that UCLA and Northwestern are the only schools currently desperate($) for a starter, but USC and Auburn might provide competition if an elite name enters. Henschke thinks Michigan will be in the market ($).

What it means? Michigan probably does want to add some competition from the portal, but going about it without triggering a tampering investigation or losing one of their own is tricky, and probably only worth the risk for a game-changer. Odds are just as good they stick with Orji and put Jadyn Davis, who could use a season to gain weight before facing Big Ten linemen, on the McCarthy plan.

Depth Chart? I'm still expecting them to redshirt Jadyn Davis unless he passes Denegal.

Quarterback

Alex Orji

Jack Tuttle

Jayden Denegal

Davis Warren

Jadyn Davis

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[After THE JUMP: Let's talk about 4th tight end and 9th OL.]

Running Back

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     Still learning to play quarterback and stuff, still good at this thing. [Bryan Fuller]

The question we're asking is: Mullings jersey or Hall jersey?

But they're acting like it's: Mullings jersey or Hall jersey.

What are we hearing? Tony Alford took the stage, and once everyone got their "Tell me why we're so much better than Ohio State" questions out of their systems we got down to the real battle over which jersey Seth should be purchasing this spring. For #20:

You've got Kalel who moved over from linebacker. I think he's a dynamic player. I think the guy has the opportunity to make a lot of plays. Real smart, smart player. Still learning the running back trade per se. Works hard, he's an extremely talented player. I'm anxious to continue to work with him. Very mature. Another guy who is a leader in his own right, maybe a little different than Donovan but maybe not as vocal. Very dynamic personality as well.

And then you've got…

Tavierre (Dunlap), good player. … He's a little longer-strided guy that works his tail off.

Okay but then…

Ben Hall… Big body, 230-235 pounds. He's had a good spring, he's had a really good spring as far as running the ball vertically, he's tough to tackle because he's real compact and runs hard so it's hard to get a good, solid hit on because there's not a lot of surface area to hit.

Cole Cabana is still dinged up and then we're into walk-ons.

As for fullback, TE coach Steve Casula handles that, but this take both goes here, and is correct:

Max Bredeson is as important of a player that we have.

Casula named Jalen Hoffman as Bredeson's backup.

What it means? Mullings is going to have the Thunder role to himself this year. Good to hear Dunlap mentioned though.

Depth Chart: Breaking these up by role. Designations may also change based on role.

Every-Down

Thunder

Lightning

Fullback

Donovan Edwards

Kalel Mullings

Donovan Edwards

Max Bredeson

Kalel Mullings

Benjamin Hall

Cole Cabana

Jalen Hoffman

Benjamin Hall

Jordan Marshall

Micah Ka'apana

Zach Ludwig

Jordan Marshall

   

Tavierre Dunlap

   

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Receivers & Tight Ends

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     Jeudyish? [Bryan Fuller]

The question we're asking is: What's Michigan doing in the portal? Also, what's Beetham doing in the portal?

But they're acting like it's: I heard you wanted more on Freddie Moore?

What are we hearing?

Semaj Morgan took the stage, and gave us the Moore Talk.

I’d say he’s like Jerry Jeudy. He’s a great route-runner. He’s gonna catch the ball. Also, great at tracking it too. Somebody asked me about Fred, and I was like, ‘Y’all ever seen Jerry Jeudy run routes?’ And then somebody was like, ‘Yeah, that’s exactly what I said.’ I’m like, ‘Yeah.’ Fred is the real deal, and I feel like it’s gonna be a great year for him.

That somebody was Devin Gardner, who made the same comparison, and the moment was when Morgan came on the Webb/Gardner/Horton show. Morgan also added something about Moore's head.

With Fred, it's a lot of upside to him—he's fast, he can catch the ball, he can run great routes—but the great thing about Fred is he really understands football. He's a real student of the game. So Fred y'all gonna see him this year; he gonna be popping off.
 

Alford was asked about Donovan Edwards as a receiver but demurred, backing up info from my insider that they've been having Dono focus on being RB1. As for the tight ends, Casula notched up the Klein talk several steps further.

There's nothing on a football field that Marlin probably can't do. We feel comfortable — I said this the other day in a staff meeting: If Marlin Klein had to go play every play in a game, we'd be good with that. We view Marlin very much as he's in a starting role. … Not that every day has been perfect, but Marlin's incredibly gifted. He's serious about football. He trains hard with Tress and Lock. He goes about his business the right way each and every day.

Casula then said Klein is "probably the most talented guy in the room from a pure physical standpoint" to which Loveland agreed that Klein is "for sure" the faster of the two.

Marlin is the fastest tight end, probably the strongest tight end, biggest tight end, so he's got it all there. … Obviously AJ Barner was one really good in-line blocking tight end. Not saying Marlin can't do that at all — he definitely can. But it's just going to be building that throughout the spring and camp for him, but he's definitely got it on his plate for sure.

As for depth, receiver and tight end were both spots that a Balas source said "isn't where it needs to be."($) Our insider said Prieskorn is still pretty skinny—not gonna be Loveland 2.0, at least not this year. Loveland went on In the Trenches but the freshmen didn't come up. Casula had nothing to say about the freshmen either when he did his turn in front of the mic, but that was before camp started so there wasn't anything to go on. Beetham was their 4th TE in snaps last year and leaves with two years of eligibility remaining.

As for portal receivers, I've been told Michigan's not likely to be involved much with PSU's Keandre Lambert-Smith, whose criteria are how much do you pass and how much are you paying. The Wolverine's staff offered a few names($) of mid-major move-ups.

What it means? I'll buy that Moore is a Guy, but there would be a lot more chatter if he was a Dude. I'm also waiting hear ONE mention of Donovan Edwards playing some receiver, but if anything that sounds even less likely than before, when it was simply "not."

Michigan is clearly looking for a bigger receiver in the portal since they've only got five scholarship guys on the roster at the moment. It'll be a tough sell. Most receivers in the portal are looking for targets and dollar bills; Michigan was already the runniest non-service academy when they had a 1st rounder at QB, and remains the one contender most averse to NIL bidding wars.

Could they also be in the market for an inline TE? Ironically the two guys they lost seem like exactly the kinds of guys they'd be targeting. On the other hand I can see why these guys would want to spend their last two years higher than 4th on the depth chart. Beetham was there last year, but there was a significant gap between himself and Bredeson. On the other hand, Michigan's receiver situation calls for more snaps from the TE group, and it's unlikely they'll get through their brutal schedule without at least one of the top three guys getting banged up.

I was really hoping to get something on Tonielli, Marshall, or failing that, some walk-on who's popping. Jalen Hoffman has only been mentioned at fullback. You'd think Michigan's walk-on program would regularly turn up 6-6 basketballers they can grow into a Carter Selzer or Mike Kwiatkowski, but the other names on the roster are Jr/Sr Noah Howes and So/Jr Brandon Mann, neither of whom have ever come up in a presser. Sounds like Beetham was it.

Depth Chart:

Flanker/Slot

Split End

H Receiver

Flex TE

Inline TE

Move TE

Tyler Morris

Fredrick Moore

Donovan Edwards

Colson Loveland

Marlin Klein

Max Bredeson

Semaj Morgan

Peyton O'Leary

Semaj Morgan

Brady Prieskorn

Deakon Tonielli

Zack Marshall

I'Marion Stewart

Channing Goodwin

   

Hogan Hansen

 

Kendrick Bell

    

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Offensive Line

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Don't take this the wrong way. [David Wilcomes]

The question we're asking is: How's the new line gellin?

But they're acting like it's: What new line; everybody's hurt!

What are we hearing? A lot of the starters have been banged up. One of the insiders we talk to saw practice on a day that Hinton, El-Hadi and Crippen were all out, and that their backups were getting consistently blown up by Jaishawn Barham. Sam Webb confirmed($) they'd been using Persi at LT, Raheem Anderson at center, and Dominick Giudice at right guard.

Before that Jansen said he's been hearing that interior of the line has really started to gel, specifically Priebe and Crippen. Annoyingly these kinds of conversations seem to come off-air then get referenced the following week; the actual interview with Priebe had more mentions of the Original Cottage Inn's clam chowder than any other lineman.

So let's go back to the insiders. Balas has been that things are a bit iffy at tackle, but while Sam, as usual, had much much more to say($): on his show. Bullets from that:

  • Priebe's still learning the playbook.
  • Gentry/Persi neck-and-neck.
  • Bounds "has made some strides" and is still head of Link, who is "better athletically."
  • Guarnera is going to be really good, Frazier needs some time to add weight.

 

What it means? It's hard to gauge much from backups thrown into the fire like that, so I'm taking most of this at face value. You'd like to hear Gentry is ahead of Persi because there's so much potential with Gentry, but whoever loses that battle is going to be playing a ton regardless.

The main news here, other than the injuries and a few early enrollees getting mentioned before they're needed, is that Giudice is still ahead of Efobi, Connor Jones, and Amir Herring at guard. You'd like to hear one of those three is moving up, but that conversation is about Michigan's 8th and 9th linemen. Realistically we're looking at a fine starting five with Jeff Persi backing up four spots and coming in as the 6th OL in places, with Raheem Anderson able to fill in at center or come in behind Persi as a guard.

Center

Guard

Tackle

Greg Crippen

Josh Priebe

Myles Hinton

Gio El-Hadi

Andrew Gentry OR

Jeff Persi (also 6th OL)

 

Raheem Anderson

Tristan Bounds

 

Dom Giudice

Evan Link

 

Nathan Efobi

Connor Jones

Jake Guarnera

Amir Herring

Andrew Sprague

 

Luke Hamilton

Blake Frazier

 

Ben Roebuck

 

 

 

Comments

befuggled

April 17th, 2024 at 1:41 PM ^

I'm wondering if you're thinking of Alan Bowman. Warren was 5 of 9 in 2022 and 0 for 5 last year for a career completion percentage of 35.7%, which does indeed suggest he might have trouble hitting the broad side of anything.

Bowman on the other hand hit 6 of his 7 attempts in 2022, finishing at 72.7% for his career at Michigan and 64.5% for his entire career.

ShadowStorm33

April 17th, 2024 at 2:54 PM ^

I'm wondering if you're thinking of Alan Bowman.

No, it was Warren; it was more of a feels thing than a numbers thing. I distinctly remember the Hawaii game, where the QB progression went JJ => Cade => Warren. JJ was lights out (6 TDs, 1 punt). Cade came in, looked super shaky, and the offense ground to a halt (punt, punt, punt, INT). But when Warren came in, the offense picked back up again (TD, TD, EOG) and he looked pretty smooth, a huge step up from Cade. Plenty of people wondered afterward if Warren should be ahead of Cade on the depth chart, but then Cade got hurt the next week and was out for the rest of the season.

I mean, just look at the stats from the Hawaii game:

                                C/ATT    YDS    AVG    TD    INT    QBR    
J.J. McCarthy        11/12    229    19.1       3      0        99.2    
Davis Warren            2/4       65     16.3       0      0        96.6    
Cade McNamara     4/6        26      4.3        0      1        1.8

Yes, Warren was only 2/4, but his QBR was only 2.6 points below JJ (who had a near-perfect game), and 3.4 points from the max QBR (100). Maybe the incompletions were drops? And Cade was 1.8, when the minimum is 0. So I don't think the completion percentage tells the whole story...

befuggled

April 17th, 2024 at 4:09 PM ^

I looked quickly through the highlights of that game. Yes, the offense did improve with Warren in there over Cade (which makes me wonder once again what the hell happened to Cade before he transferred). 

However, Warren's QBR is inflated there because Bredeson turned what was admittedly a nice completion from a roughly 20 yard gain into 56 yards after Hawaii couldn't tackle him. It's such a small sample size, though, that that one play is longer than all of his other career completions put together.

I do have to look at the fact that Warren couldn't complete a pass last year against East Carolina, UNLV or Nebraska.

ShadowStorm33

April 18th, 2024 at 2:31 AM ^

I do have to look at the fact that Warren couldn't complete a pass last year against East Carolina, UNLV or Nebraska.

Yeah, he certainly didn't look good last year after looking promising in 2022. No idea what happened. Maybe it was the Harbaugh QB regression curse (JJ was the first Harbaugh starting QB since Luck at Stanford to finish his career at M (S in Luck's case) instead of transferring or switching positions)?

gbdub

April 17th, 2024 at 3:22 PM ^

Agree on Tuttle being undersold here, unless the injury is real bad. 

4 star recruit, 5th year, has plenty of good reasons why he didn’t shine at Indiana (it was Indiana). 

No one should be shocked if he ends up a McNamara / Rudock 2.0, which might be just fine. Decent B1G starter that prevents you from having to play Davis is what we need this year. 

JonnyHintz

April 17th, 2024 at 9:59 PM ^

Part of that is QBs wanting to go where they can throw the ball, so we weren’t really in it on the elite recruitments for the most part. Another part is recruiting a couple high floor guys (Cade and Peters) who were never going to be “elite” and your high ceiling guys (Milton and McCaffrey) not sticking it out long enough to see the fruits of their development with UM.  

JohnCorbin

April 18th, 2024 at 8:00 AM ^

22 mph isn't that fast. It's not slow, but it's not anything eye popping. In pads it's more impressive, if that was the case.

If memory serves me all good like, the average human has a top speed of 19 mph. Quick google search says 15 - 17 mph, but I don't believe it. A 12 second 100m dash translates to an average speed of 18.64 mph. That's not a fast 100m dash, and the top speed for a 12 second 100m dash is probably around 20.5mph. 11.5 seconds we're now at an average speed of 19.45 mph. Denard's fastest 100m dash was 10.28s, which would average out to 21.8 mph for the race. I think his fastest 60m dash was 6.81s. Let's assume we can combine those two races. Let's assume the last 40m was ran in 3.47 seconds and it estimates Denard's top speed. That translates to a top speed of 25.8 mph. For reference, Usain has been clocked at 27.8 mph (average world record 100m dash speed was 23.35mph).

JohnCorbin

April 18th, 2024 at 8:39 PM ^

I provided the caveat of, "with pads that's more impressive".

If it's just track speed, it's not that fast. Wearing pads is a bit of a different situation. I imagine Davis Warren was clocked at 22 mph when he wasn't in pads, which isn't that impressive.

I didn't think it's be a highly controversial comment.

Koop

April 17th, 2024 at 6:00 PM ^

Record aside, I’d take 1998. After losing the first two games to ND and Syracuse, Lloyd benched the good-for-nothing starting QB in favor of more playing time for a hot recruit freshman. 

I’d take either of those guys in 2024. Even that good-for-nothing starter. Hey, I wonder if he still has eligibility?

Mr Grainger

April 17th, 2024 at 3:08 PM ^

I don't think it's a terrible comparison, but I do think there are a lot of differences. In addition to QB issues, that 2017 squad had a poor OL and no real experience at the skill positions.

This OL should be a lot better, we have a potential all-American at RB, a legit masher as his backup, another possible all-America at TE and receivers who are also short on experience but have shown real breakout potential. I think 2017 is the floor but as long as they get competent QB play the offense should be able score enough to win (especially with this defense).

rice4114

April 17th, 2024 at 8:05 PM ^

Nobody got more than 24 on us last year.

I think Orji and this offense can put up +24 for a minimum of 10 games this regular season. Maybe even 11. Steady on defense and efficient on offense. 

Here is something fun to think about. If JJ didnt have to pass vs Penn States defense... yeah Orji can do that too. 

PopeLando

April 17th, 2024 at 3:47 PM ^

Not even close to 2017.

In 2017, our trio of QBs was:

  1. the tattered remains of Wilton Speight held together by duct tape…and then he got injured AGAIN 
  2. PTSD Brandon Peters…who then got injured AGAIN 
  3. John “literally the worst pass play you’ll ever see” O’Korn

so there are 3 QBs who could neither pass nor run effectively. Know how many passing TDs we got that year? 9!!!! (With 10 INTs)

Know how many rushing TDs we got from QBs in 2017? Zero.

QBs rushing yards? Negative 131! 

The 2017 Harbaughffense was levels of suckitude that you don’t often see. 2014’s Hoke/Nuss ‘offense’ was better than 2017. We would have been better off running the triple option. Like, a LOT better.

How Pep Hamilton kept his job while Tim Drevno only had to be gently ushered out the door, I’ll never know. It’s an indication of how beloved Harbaugh was that neither 2017 (offense) nor 2020 (defense) got him fired.

OldSchoolWolverine

April 17th, 2024 at 1:12 PM ^

The talk about Orji not hitting certain throws.... Well, this is what practice and camp is for.   The concern seems only appropriate if it were the few weeks before the start of season, but not now.  

Hensons Mobile…

April 17th, 2024 at 1:15 PM ^

I agree, and despite my comment below, it's not impossible that Orji improves to where they want him. But it sounds like Denegal is zooming through his development while Orji is going more slowly with fixing bad habits.

Edit: Or am I reading this passage backwards?

There was clear separation between Orji and him at that point, but not as much since then. He's closed the gap in recent practices with his improved accuracy and has shown better skills on the move than outside observers might expect at first glance.

ShadowStorm33

April 17th, 2024 at 1:55 PM ^

Yeah. Honestly it feels like kind of a stretch to even label Orji as a Guy instead of Iffy like the other QBs. They clearly had ZERO trust in his ability to throw last year. They called one pass the entire season (which he didn't even throw--he ran it OOB instead), and didn't let him pass at all in garbage time, which would have the perfect time to try and get him some reps, since if he throws a pick, who cares, the game's already over. It's really no different than the PepCat, which if I remember correctly also called exactly one extremely obvious pass that Peppers didn't end up attempting. Would anyone have been excited if Peppers was then the likely starter at QB in 2017? No, we would all have been terrified.

And we should be terrified. It doesn't matter how good of a runner he is (because let's face it, we won't be running an option or wishbone offense) if he's not a decent or better passer, games against any good defenses will be slogfests as they stack the box and dare us to throw. I get shades of the 2012 Bama, ND and Nebraska games.

It's not that he can't turn the corner, but the talk hasn't been instilling much confidence that he's markedly improved from where he was last year...