Agreed that with Orji it is what it is at this point. The coaches aren’t fixing footwork at this stage.
For my sake, I still like Brian’s January take. Roll out the wishbone and single wing and dare teams to stop it. Service academy +. The nightmare team no one wants to see on the schedule, because no one other than Ohio has time to prepare adequately for it. It’s unsustainable past one season, but, so what. If Denegal emerges, great. If not, onto Jaydn Davis in 2025.
Record aside, I’d take 1998. After losing the first two games to ND and Syracuse, Lloyd benched the good-for-nothing starting QB in favor of more playing time for a hot recruit freshman.
I’d take either of those guys in 2024. Even that good-for-nothing starter. Hey, I wonder if he still has eligibility?
Suuuuuper casual M hockey fan here, and just very grateful for this season, this team, and the awesome run the players and coaches put together.
Dang, those BC kids Smith and Gauthier were … dang. I guess they’re pretty good at hockey, huh. Maybe they should think about doing this full time or something.
Even if some of this team leaves after this season, it definitely feels to this casual fan like the program’s heading in a very good direction. In the meantime—a team, and a run, to remember.
Won't begrudge Trente making a decision that makes sense for him. A truly unselfish warrior and I wish him the best.
It's moments like this when I wish Michigan published a reliable three-deep position chart.
There are lots of OL folks on the roster, but who is ready to play RT?
Anderson? Persi? Herring?
I'm aware that there's a big difference between a guard's frame and wingspan and that of a tackle, but I don't know enough about any of these guys' technique and ability. We fans were spoiled by immense depth at tackle this season; now, not as much.
I've been following Michigan football since 1987, the fall of my freshman year. All that time--1997 included--the notion of a Michigan national championship in football seemed far-fetched. And, let's be clear--'97 was a magical run, but it had none of the sense of inevitability and destiny that this team--THIS F--KING TEAM!--brought with it.
It's a credit and a testament to Jim Harbaugh, for sure--a brilliant and flawed person who gave us all a tremendous story and lesson about facing up to one's own flaws and actively listening, learning, and asking for help.
But I will always remember this season for the story and the lesson of the players who chose to come back and finish the job.
JJ McCarthy
Blake Corum
Mike Sainristil
Zak Zinter
Trevor Keegan
Michael Barrett
Rod Moore
... and so many others, who had a choice to leave and pursue NFL dreams or the rest of their lives and chose to return to cement their legacy at Michigan. Some were vaunted recruits; some were unheralded grinders. Every single one of them sacrificed, worked, and focused on the task through all the negative noise and adversity--each and every day--and each and every one of them, from the practice squad to the CFP MVPs, are heroes. Every. Damn. One.
Go Blue, and Hail to Team 144--never to be forgotten as the best Michigan team of the modern era.
Boy, Michigan would really benefit from a defensive coordinator who has experience with defending against a QB like Lamar Jackson, wouldn't they? Man--where could they find someone like that?
... including Vince Young, whom Milroe is not -- at least, not yet.
(Also, don't forget that Lloyd Carr and the Michigan defensive staff chose to stop Cedric Benson and dare Young to beat them. Not only is Cedric Benson also not on the field in this year's Rose Bowl, but the coaches who picked that poison aren't, either.)
Bama's Cover-3-Match/press "rip/liz" zone defense assumes three major passing threats, and focuses on taking away the deep shots. Bama's two 1st-rounder CBs and rotating safeties address that. Their two first-or-second-rounder edge rushers pressure the quarterback into hurrying before other routes come open underneath.
So: assume Bama has CJ and Roman covered well, and maybe even has a safety to account for Loveland, although that's still a matchup problem for them.
But: where does that base Bama defense account for players like Barner and Edwards? Answer: it doesn't. Bama's LBs are the weak point of the defense, their edges rush aggressively and the middle of the DL is not as strong, and their base defense already has one safety committed to a deep zone.
The base Bama defense is vulnerable:
In the flats,
In the mid-distance middle of the field,
Flooding zones with three routes on one side of the field (typically with a crossing or other route from the opposite side of the formation), and
Deep against four vertical routes.
Okay, ignore that last one for Michigan--unlikely to happen. But Michigan's short-passing game to TEs and RBs, play-action, motion and wheel-angle-Texas routes for Edwards, and just straight-up pounding the rock inside with a sprinkle of designed QB runs and read-options can and should exploit those weaknesses.
Really hope the coaches are working extensively on improving the Edwards packages.
Not rub salt in the wound/add fuel to the fire/mix metaphors liberally, but it's been the case for Michigan in many prior years that Michigan has had more players taken in the NFL Draft than teams like Ohio State and Georgia (and sometimes Bama), but that they are almost all taken lower in the draft than those other schools' players.
Having said that, meh, I don't care. Michigan can take Bama this year. Go Blue.
Alabama's two LBs are the lowest-graded PFF players on their defense. The interior of their D-Line is just okay. Their safeties, by design, are committed to read-react defense because their corners play a press-Cover 3 zone. In short, Alabama's defensive strengths are to the outside of their defense, and their relative weaknesses (relative being a key word) are in the inside of their defense.
Veering away from the incompetent anonymous Athletic analysis for some observations:
I think Michigan matched up better with every other single possible opponent in the CFP than Bama.
Even if that were true (IMHO, Texas would be a worse matchup for Michigan), Bama is the draw, and the game is winnable for Michigan. Which leads to the second observation:
I just feel like two great corners and two great edge rushers is worst case scenario for Michigan.
Respectfully disagree. Matchups make fights. Alabama's defensive strength doesn't match up with Michigan's offensive strength.
Michigan showed against Penn State--a top 10 team with the nation's best rushing defense--that it doesn't need to pass to win. And of course, it's been the Michigan football offensive identity under Harbaugh to run it down the opponent's throats.
Whereas PSU's rush defense is 1st in the nation, Alabama's is 29th. Ohio State's is 22nd. Iowa's is 13th. Nebraska's is 7th. (Texas is 3rd.)
Maybe those statistics should be strength-of-schedule adjusted (someone familiar with SP+ could probably fashion a query), but the point remains: Michigan's offensive strength matches up favorably against Alabama's defensive strength.
When Michigan is on defense--Jalen Milroe is a wild card, to be sure. The best one can say is that Michigan has not faced a dual-threat QB like Milroe this season.
Again, Michigan hasn't faced a true dual-threat QB this season. But looking at strength vs strength, Michigan's defense matches up well against Alabama's offense.
There's a lot of hype about the SEC just being so much faster, so much stronger, and so much better, that Michigan can't keep up. The SEC lost more out-of-conference games this year than they won--including Bama's loss to Texas and FSU's wins over SEC teams. I guess we'll find out.
(Ha, a slip--wrote "MVA" instead of "DMV." I mean, "MVA" could stand for "Maryland-Virginia Area," but it's DMV because DC-MD-VA. I guess I have my registration renewal on my mind.)
Any chance Orji can simulate him enough in bowl prep to give the defense at least a taste of what to expect in the Rose Bowl?
For sure, yes. Milroe is talented. He's not Superman--not yet.
Offensively, can the ground game turn this into a boa constrictor-type squeeze game using 6-7 minute long drives to play keep away from the Bama offense? Keeping the defense fresh should be a priority one would think, no?
This season's Alabama is a very tough defense, coupled with an offense that depends on defensive breakdowns and big plays. IMHO, while I am concerned about Milroe as a threat this year's Michigan team hasn't yet seen, I'm more concerned about Alabama's elite talent on defense, particularly at DE and CB.
Of course, Michigan would love to play its usual grinding game on offense and limit Alabama's opportunities on offense. The challenge will be that Michigan's perimeter passing game is going to be severely stressed--Michigan's OTs v Alabama's pass rush and Michigan's WRs v Alabama's secondary. Nick Saban's Cover 3 match rip-liz zone, particularly with Alabama's elite pass rush and corners, is designed to avoid big plays in the passing game, and Michigan's edge pass blocking and WR separation are not strengths at the moment.
One weakness for Cover 3 match--four verticals--is not a high percentage play for this year's Michigan team.
However, other weaknesses--flooding a zone with three receiving options, targeting the flats, exploiting the void left by the run-support safety, and pounding the front eight with diverse run fits, including QB run--all do tend to play to this year's Michigan team strengths. Heavy doses of JJ runs, Donovan Edwards and TE passes, and multiple TE-OL sets are all things that should help.
Anyway--Bama is good, but (to borrow a phrase from a Certain Team in Ohio), they put their pants on one leg at a time, too. And this Michigan team is #1 for a reason. Go Blue.
FWIW--and it's not much--I'm torn whether Colson or Barrett should be the spy.
Personally, I favor Barrett, because I'd take the vast football IQ and tremendous blitzing ability over the raw speed. Colson's tendencies to whiff mentally concern me. I recognize that Colson's raw speed, combined with giving him one job to do, has appeal.
I watched a replay of the Bama-LSU game the other night on SEC Network. Granted, LSU decided not to play defense much this year. But focusing on the Bama offense, I saw a lot of misdirection, read-option, attacking the edges--IMHO, it's going to take a spy with a high football IQ to see through the distractions.
I love Coach Howard. I'm grateful for Coach Howard.
I overlapped with Juwan Howard for a split-second at Michigan. I graduated undergrad in spring '91, came back for law school in summer (May) '94. I (seem to) remember seeing him come into the Campus Corner while I was there. I was in awe.
Coach Howard kept his promise to his grandmother and finished his degree. Coach Howard loved Michigan enough to come back and lead Michigan to two Sweet 16's, when he could have been making NBA coaching money or just living off the rings he already had. Michigan owes Coach Howard a debt Michigan can never repay.
And it's pretty obvious where this is going.
Please, Coach Howard: do the right thing. Announce that you need to retire for your health and family--both true--and let Michigan celebrate you while starting the transition to the next phase.
IMHO Alabama's QB Jalen Milroe--and the offensive coaching staff's use of Milroe's talents--have grown considerably over the season and really should be labeled the Dangerman of Alabama's offense.
Milroe is like a junior Vince Young or Tim Tebow--or Alex Orji, if you like. He's a threat to run on every play, and Alabama designs many plays around either the threat or the actuality of Milroe running. The downfield passing game opens up because defenses need to commit a spy (or in Auburn's case, inexplicably, two spies on 4th and 31 with time running out) and that tends to leave the WRs in one-on-one coverage.
Michigan hasn't faced a truly moblie, bruising QB like Milroe this season. But if one were looking for comps, there is a Certain Team From Ohio that in years past has featured running dual-threat QBs behind a big OL and NFL-caliber WRs.
Now, Michigan is the #1 team in the nation this year and is truly stacked on defense and offense--but Milroe poses a threat this team hasn't yet faced, and that worries me more than a pair of very good WRs. A Certain Team From Ohio had (IMHO) better WRs this year; Michigan handled that threat. But pair that with a big, bruising, and fast running QB? That's a new wrinkle.
My (hot take?) predictions:
Alex Orji will be getting a lot of use on the scout team this month.
Michael Barrett will be adding 007 to his long resume of talents.
Moishe is called into the Inquisition and told to convert. He resists at first but finally relents. But his spirit is troubled.
A week later he goes back to the Grand Inquisitor. "I can't do it!" he cries. "I am a Jew! I will always be a Jew! I can be nothing other than a Jew!" To his surprise, the Grand Inquisitor accepts Moishe's decision and lets him go.
Moishe returns home exultant. "Rivka, Rivka, great news! We're Jews again! We're Jews again!"
His wife Rifka sighs. "Moishe, you schmuck. You couldn't have waited until after Passover?"
Just coming here to comment how dramatically different recruiting feels with the portal.
I am with the This Is The Year bandwagon but with an expanded playoff to give more wiggle room in the regular season and the portal to fill big gaps, who knows? Maybe Next Year is Also The Year?
IMHO I think one has to throw out the prior years for this year and for the Rose Bowl. Different team, different motivations.
It is a fact that even in the CFP, and even with last year's game against TCU, Michigan came out seemingly a little sluggish and a little under-prepared relative to the competition.
BUT--this is Bama. No one is (or should be) taking this one for granted. I think we will see the team's A game. I hope the coaching staff took a long hard self-evaluation after the TCU game and changed their pre-bowl prep for this year.
I haven't paid close attention to Bama yet this year. What I've heard about their defense is: 1st round pass rush edges, size at the DTs, excellent secondary. That sounds similar to Penn State. As I'm sure everyone remembers, Michigan had offensive issues against Penn State. And I don't want to have to rely on running the ball for 30+ consecutive plays against Bama!
Edwards could be part of the solution to that. On hot reads--give the man a quick angle/Texas route. Hell, if the ends are aggressively rushing upfield, give Edwards a delayed draw and let him rip a few.
But if the pass pro issues are resolved, and Edwards in motion draws man coverage--dude. Throw the man the damn ball.
As the Iowa secondary in @Seth's thought bubbles might say, "I feel the need--the need for speed!"
This seems to be the conventional wisdom. JJ should come back and be the #1 QB in next year's draft. I personally find it hard to believe that his draft stock would rise higher next year if Michigan wins the natty this year, but I'm not an NFL draft guy.
Deep in the heart of Texas, the Ewers camp was already making noises about Ewers coming back--possibly to give Arch Manning something to think about. Maybe JJ's camp ends up doing something similar.
Bottom line on Dante Moore--on one hand, never say no to talent. On the other--I strongly agree with the notion that Michigan has identified a certain personality type that fits the Michigan culture regardless of the number of stars recruiting sites put next to the name. At this point, if Moore wants to come to Michigan, I'm in "show me" mode.
Just wanted to take a moment and reflect that all the questions about Michigan's rotating players at multiple positions might have something to do with transfer portal considerations.
Also freshness, and maybe some packages down the road, and maybe people actually, you know, deserve to see the field.
But, yeah. Come to Michigan and you actually play.
I was at that game, with my toddler son in a Baby Bjorn (staff at the gate originally wanted him to have a ticket, but thankfully relented).
The kicker had missed, what, 2 or 3 already in that game? Michigan was trailing in the 4th quarter. The Big House was quiet and despondent.
My son had toddled around the plazas for a bit earlier in the game, had stumbled and bumped his head against some bricks. Got a nasty looking gash on his forehead. By the 4th quarter, he was napping in the Baby Bjorn on my chest.
Brabbs kicked that game-winner as time expired and 100,000+ people roared. My son woke up wide-eyed to the noise.
Flash forward 21 years, and that same kid just graduated Michigan Engin '23 this past spring. He reads this site (!) and eats, sleeps, and breathes Michigan football, as he's done all his life.
If Bama was wearing a different uniform and carried all the same advanced stats/power rankings Michigan would be favored by 5-8 points but because it's Bama and the SEC (rightfully so) it will probably kick-off a pk'em.
Except it is Alabama, and Nick Saban, and the results speak for themselves. Would anyone say with a straight face they'd prefer to face this University of Tuscaloosa team instead of FSU?
They have an excellent pass rush and an excellent secondary--sounds like Penn State. They have a mobile quarterback and a couple of excellent wide receivers--sounds like prior year Ohio State teams.
Toughest test yet for this Michigan team, no question. It's going to require an A-game from every aspect of the team, particularly coaching. I don't doubt that Michigan has the athletes to compete and win this team. I do have some doubt about the coaching staff's ability to prepare for a bowl game given the track record. We'll see!
So long as we're clear that Donovan Edwards is a very talented and hard-working player, and that the sources of the issues with his productivity this year lie mostly with the coaching staff, yeah, I agree--right now it feels like Edwards is not the team's second-best option at RB.
OSU would have wins over very good Penn State and Notre Dame teams, plus a nail-biting loss to Michigan.
I assume you meant: “OSU would have wins over very good Penn State [period]. And Notre Dame.”
The Golden Domers are 9-3 with wins over exactly zero ranked teams (and yes, I’m including the now-unranked, 7-5, “we don’t play defense in South Central” USC Trojans—that’s just circular and infuriating logic). They lost in humiliating fashion to OSU, at home, by fielding ten players instead of eleven on the two final, and game winning, plays.
Why is Notre Dame still ranked in the AP poll? Oh, is it because … they’re named Notre Dame, and AP voters ranked them in the preseason polls, and hate to admit that they were wrong? 🧐
This is not to say that OSU wasn’t good this year. They were, comparatively. So was Penn State. But deserving of the playoffs based on that resume, as opposed to the PAC-12 or SEC runners-up? Puh-leeeeeze.
Agreed. I really appreciate @Seth's detailed analysis here.
And I want to shout out the whole @MGoCrew for the explanations on the podcast, as well, particularly as to the series in which OSU ran 8 times for a TD. I'm sure I wasn't the only one taken aback at that moment (especially with Gus Johnson crowing about OSU's "smashmouth" football after the TD).
Understanding better how these things happen--on offense, why what appears to be running into a stacked box makes sense based on the blocking; on defense, why OSU's tempo offense could take advantage of Michigan's personnel--makes me a better fan. Thanks, @Seth and crew!
In fairness--Michigan's offensive line wasn't nearly as elite during the tenure of the Bosas (and much of the tenure of Chase Young), too. Matchups make fights.
I for one am so, so happy for Karsen Barnhardt and Trente Jones to get some validation and vindication out of the adversity they faced this season. That has to be extra sweet.
Taking into account that it was 2nd and 4 near midfield, with Michigan ahead and chewing clock with 5:19 remaining in the game-- I'm guessing Edwards has been drilled repeatedly to follow his blocks and in that circumstance did what his coaches told him to do.
It has to have been a frustrating year for The Don. I doubt things will change this week, but with about a month to prepare for the (no jinx) playoffs, I'm hoping that Michigan will gameplan more special packages for him.
Recent Comments
Agreed that with Orji it is what it is at this point. The coaches aren’t fixing footwork at this stage.
For my sake, I still like Brian’s January take. Roll out the wishbone and single wing and dare teams to stop it. Service academy +. The nightmare team no one wants to see on the schedule, because no one other than Ohio has time to prepare adequately for it. It’s unsustainable past one season, but, so what. If Denegal emerges, great. If not, onto Jaydn Davis in 2025.
Let Semaj Be Semaj! Best interview on the team.
Record aside, I’d take 1998. After losing the first two games to ND and Syracuse, Lloyd benched the good-for-nothing starting QB in favor of more playing time for a hot recruit freshman.
I’d take either of those guys in 2024. Even that good-for-nothing starter. Hey, I wonder if he still has eligibility?
I freakin’ love this fan base. Love.
Sorry—for me this fan base approximates the Platonic ideal, asymptotically. Better?
Suuuuuper casual M hockey fan here, and just very grateful for this season, this team, and the awesome run the players and coaches put together.
Dang, those BC kids Smith and Gauthier were … dang. I guess they’re pretty good at hockey, huh. Maybe they should think about doing this full time or something.
Even if some of this team leaves after this season, it definitely feels to this casual fan like the program’s heading in a very good direction. In the meantime—a team, and a run, to remember.
Won't begrudge Trente making a decision that makes sense for him. A truly unselfish warrior and I wish him the best.
It's moments like this when I wish Michigan published a reliable three-deep position chart.
There are lots of OL folks on the roster, but who is ready to play RT?
Anderson? Persi? Herring?
I'm aware that there's a big difference between a guard's frame and wingspan and that of a tackle, but I don't know enough about any of these guys' technique and ability. We fans were spoiled by immense depth at tackle this season; now, not as much.
Yep. I ordered the Natty, the Rose Bowl, and The Game. "TRIPLE"; "Roses are Blue"; "VICTORS."
Those are getting framed.
I…
Alex, all the feels, man.
I've been following Michigan football since 1987, the fall of my freshman year. All that time--1997 included--the notion of a Michigan national championship in football seemed far-fetched. And, let's be clear--'97 was a magical run, but it had none of the sense of inevitability and destiny that this team--THIS F--KING TEAM!--brought with it.
It's a credit and a testament to Jim Harbaugh, for sure--a brilliant and flawed person who gave us all a tremendous story and lesson about facing up to one's own flaws and actively listening, learning, and asking for help.
But I will always remember this season for the story and the lesson of the players who chose to come back and finish the job.
... and so many others, who had a choice to leave and pursue NFL dreams or the rest of their lives and chose to return to cement their legacy at Michigan. Some were vaunted recruits; some were unheralded grinders. Every single one of them sacrificed, worked, and focused on the task through all the negative noise and adversity--each and every day--and each and every one of them, from the practice squad to the CFP MVPs, are heroes. Every. Damn. One.
Go Blue, and Hail to Team 144--never to be forgotten as the best Michigan team of the modern era.
Milroe will get his, to be sure.
Boy, Michigan would really benefit from a defensive coordinator who has experience with defending against a QB like Lamar Jackson, wouldn't they? Man--where could they find someone like that?
... including Vince Young, whom Milroe is not -- at least, not yet.
(Also, don't forget that Lloyd Carr and the Michigan defensive staff chose to stop Cedric Benson and dare Young to beat them. Not only is Cedric Benson also not on the field in this year's Rose Bowl, but the coaches who picked that poison aren't, either.)
<Chef's kiss> Dude, can we get you quoted anonymously in response?
Agree with as far as it goes: to be the best, one has to beat the best.
Bama is going to get the benefit of the doubt from most until someone definitively takes them down.
This is the challenge that brought players and coaches to THE BEST UNIVERSITY IN THE WORLD.
We bow to NO PROGRAM.
We embody Midwestern values of hard work, the pursuit of excellence, and AN ENTHUSIASM UNKNOWN TO MANKIND.
We. Are. Michigan.
Bama's Cover-3…
This 100%.
Bama's Cover-3-Match/press "rip/liz" zone defense assumes three major passing threats, and focuses on taking away the deep shots. Bama's two 1st-rounder CBs and rotating safeties address that. Their two first-or-second-rounder edge rushers pressure the quarterback into hurrying before other routes come open underneath.
So: assume Bama has CJ and Roman covered well, and maybe even has a safety to account for Loveland, although that's still a matchup problem for them.
But: where does that base Bama defense account for players like Barner and Edwards? Answer: it doesn't. Bama's LBs are the weak point of the defense, their edges rush aggressively and the middle of the DL is not as strong, and their base defense already has one safety committed to a deep zone.
The base Bama defense is vulnerable:
Okay, ignore that last one for Michigan--unlikely to happen. But Michigan's short-passing game to TEs and RBs, play-action, motion and wheel-angle-Texas routes for Edwards, and just straight-up pounding the rock inside with a sprinkle of designed QB runs and read-options can and should exploit those weaknesses.
Really hope the coaches are working extensively on improving the Edwards packages.
Not rub salt in the wound/add fuel to the fire/mix metaphors liberally, but it's been the case for Michigan in many prior years that Michigan has had more players taken in the NFL Draft than teams like Ohio State and Georgia (and sometimes Bama), but that they are almost all taken lower in the draft than those other schools' players.
Having said that, meh, I don't care. Michigan can take Bama this year. Go Blue.
For those interested, Sagarin's model predicts a Michigan win over Alabama by (roughly) 3 points when treating the Rose Bowl as a neutral site.
(Sagarin's site appears to show more than one model, but each shows a Michigan victory by between 3 and 4 points.)
Can't say I understand Sagarin's methodology--just reporting what his site shows.
And--not complaining.
Alabama's two LBs are the lowest-graded PFF players on their defense. The interior of their D-Line is just okay. Their safeties, by design, are committed to read-react defense because their corners play a press-Cover 3 zone. In short, Alabama's defensive strengths are to the outside of their defense, and their relative weaknesses (relative being a key word) are in the inside of their defense.
That's a good matchup for Michigan.
Veering away from the incompetent anonymous Athletic analysis for some observations:
Even if that were true (IMHO, Texas would be a worse matchup for Michigan), Bama is the draw, and the game is winnable for Michigan. Which leads to the second observation:
Respectfully disagree. Matchups make fights. Alabama's defensive strength doesn't match up with Michigan's offensive strength.
Michigan showed against Penn State--a top 10 team with the nation's best rushing defense--that it doesn't need to pass to win. And of course, it's been the Michigan football offensive identity under Harbaugh to run it down the opponent's throats.
Whereas PSU's rush defense is 1st in the nation, Alabama's is 29th. Ohio State's is 22nd. Iowa's is 13th. Nebraska's is 7th. (Texas is 3rd.)
Maybe those statistics should be strength-of-schedule adjusted (someone familiar with SP+ could probably fashion a query), but the point remains: Michigan's offensive strength matches up favorably against Alabama's defensive strength.
When Michigan is on defense--Jalen Milroe is a wild card, to be sure. The best one can say is that Michigan has not faced a dual-threat QB like Milroe this season.
But--Milroe's running threat is still a version of rushing. Michigan is 5th nationally in rushing defense. As to the passing threat--frankly, Ohio State's passing attack was more potent than Alabama's this year. Ohio State was 21st nationally in passing; Alabama wasn't even in the top 50.
Again, Michigan hasn't faced a true dual-threat QB this season. But looking at strength vs strength, Michigan's defense matches up well against Alabama's offense.
There's a lot of hype about the SEC just being so much faster, so much stronger, and so much better, that Michigan can't keep up. The SEC lost more out-of-conference games this year than they won--including Bama's loss to Texas and FSU's wins over SEC teams. I guess we'll find out.
(Ha, a slip--wrote "MVA" instead of "DMV." I mean, "MVA" could stand for "Maryland-Virginia Area," but it's DMV because DC-MD-VA. I guess I have my registration renewal on my mind.)
Any chance Orji…
For sure, yes. Milroe is talented. He's not Superman--not yet.
This season's Alabama is a very tough defense, coupled with an offense that depends on defensive breakdowns and big plays. IMHO, while I am concerned about Milroe as a threat this year's Michigan team hasn't yet seen, I'm more concerned about Alabama's elite talent on defense, particularly at DE and CB.
Of course, Michigan would love to play its usual grinding game on offense and limit Alabama's opportunities on offense. The challenge will be that Michigan's perimeter passing game is going to be severely stressed--Michigan's OTs v Alabama's pass rush and Michigan's WRs v Alabama's secondary. Nick Saban's Cover 3 match rip-liz zone, particularly with Alabama's elite pass rush and corners, is designed to avoid big plays in the passing game, and Michigan's edge pass blocking and WR separation are not strengths at the moment.
One weakness for Cover 3 match--four verticals--is not a high percentage play for this year's Michigan team.
However, other weaknesses--flooding a zone with three receiving options, targeting the flats, exploiting the void left by the run-support safety, and pounding the front eight with diverse run fits, including QB run--all do tend to play to this year's Michigan team strengths. Heavy doses of JJ runs, Donovan Edwards and TE passes, and multiple TE-OL sets are all things that should help.
Anyway--Bama is good, but (to borrow a phrase from a Certain Team in Ohio), they put their pants on one leg at a time, too. And this Michigan team is #1 for a reason. Go Blue.
FWIW--and it's not much--I'm torn whether Colson or Barrett should be the spy.
Personally, I favor Barrett, because I'd take the vast football IQ and tremendous blitzing ability over the raw speed. Colson's tendencies to whiff mentally concern me. I recognize that Colson's raw speed, combined with giving him one job to do, has appeal.
I watched a replay of the Bama-LSU game the other night on SEC Network. Granted, LSU decided not to play defense much this year. But focusing on the Bama offense, I saw a lot of misdirection, read-option, attacking the edges--IMHO, it's going to take a spy with a high football IQ to see through the distractions.
Respectfully disagree. I'll take sixth-year smarts and experience over speed for the spy. Love Colson but he gets burned, a lot.
I love Coach Howard. I'm grateful for Coach Howard.
I overlapped with Juwan Howard for a split-second at Michigan. I graduated undergrad in spring '91, came back for law school in summer (May) '94. I (seem to) remember seeing him come into the Campus Corner while I was there. I was in awe.
Coach Howard kept his promise to his grandmother and finished his degree. Coach Howard loved Michigan enough to come back and lead Michigan to two Sweet 16's, when he could have been making NBA coaching money or just living off the rings he already had. Michigan owes Coach Howard a debt Michigan can never repay.
And it's pretty obvious where this is going.
Please, Coach Howard: do the right thing. Announce that you need to retire for your health and family--both true--and let Michigan celebrate you while starting the transition to the next phase.
IMHO Alabama's QB Jalen Milroe--and the offensive coaching staff's use of Milroe's talents--have grown considerably over the season and really should be labeled the Dangerman of Alabama's offense.
Milroe is like a junior Vince Young or Tim Tebow--or Alex Orji, if you like. He's a threat to run on every play, and Alabama designs many plays around either the threat or the actuality of Milroe running. The downfield passing game opens up because defenses need to commit a spy (or in Auburn's case, inexplicably, two spies on 4th and 31 with time running out) and that tends to leave the WRs in one-on-one coverage.
Michigan hasn't faced a truly moblie, bruising QB like Milroe this season. But if one were looking for comps, there is a Certain Team From Ohio that in years past has featured running dual-threat QBs behind a big OL and NFL-caliber WRs.
Now, Michigan is the #1 team in the nation this year and is truly stacked on defense and offense--but Milroe poses a threat this team hasn't yet faced, and that worries me more than a pair of very good WRs. A Certain Team From Ohio had (IMHO) better WRs this year; Michigan handled that threat. But pair that with a big, bruising, and fast running QB? That's a new wrinkle.
My (hot take?) predictions:
Just contributed $36 to the toy drive. Happy Hanukkah to the Fishers, and happy holidays to everyone.
“Mike Sainristil is Your Daddy.”
Fixed the title for you. You’re welcome.
That's a good one. Here's mine.
Moishe is called into the Inquisition and told to convert. He resists at first but finally relents. But his spirit is troubled.
A week later he goes back to the Grand Inquisitor. "I can't do it!" he cries. "I am a Jew! I will always be a Jew! I can be nothing other than a Jew!" To his surprise, the Grand Inquisitor accepts Moishe's decision and lets him go.
Moishe returns home exultant. "Rivka, Rivka, great news! We're Jews again! We're Jews again!"
His wife Rifka sighs. "Moishe, you schmuck. You couldn't have waited until after Passover?"
I know right? And then the Hasmoneans turn around and invite in the Romans about 40 years later and it's like, so what was that about?
Eh--eat some potato pancakes and jelly doughnuts and try not to think about it too much.
Damned double post.
okay, bonus post, here’s an otherwise unrelated but interesting article about Nick Saban’s Cover 3 match rip/lis zone defense.
All the Donovan Edwards detractors, pay attention.
Just coming here to comment how dramatically different recruiting feels with the portal.
I am with the This Is The Year bandwagon but with an expanded playoff to give more wiggle room in the regular season and the portal to fill big gaps, who knows? Maybe Next Year is Also The Year?
🤷♂️
I think McCord is a take for sure, even if he is a Tuttle-Bowman type.
Think of the NIL tie-ins. “Remember me?” Holds up binoculars. “I have your siiiiiiiignnnnssss….”
IMHO I think one has to throw out the prior years for this year and for the Rose Bowl. Different team, different motivations.
It is a fact that even in the CFP, and even with last year's game against TCU, Michigan came out seemingly a little sluggish and a little under-prepared relative to the competition.
BUT--this is Bama. No one is (or should be) taking this one for granted. I think we will see the team's A game. I hope the coaching staff took a long hard self-evaluation after the TCU game and changed their pre-bowl prep for this year.
Go Blue!
Yes. And Michigan was facing Drew Allar and the PSU OL on offense and felt confident they would be unable to move the ball. Not so Bama.
I haven't paid close…
Agree.
I haven't paid close attention to Bama yet this year. What I've heard about their defense is: 1st round pass rush edges, size at the DTs, excellent secondary. That sounds similar to Penn State. As I'm sure everyone remembers, Michigan had offensive issues against Penn State. And I don't want to have to rely on running the ball for 30+ consecutive plays against Bama!
Edwards could be part of the solution to that. On hot reads--give the man a quick angle/Texas route. Hell, if the ends are aggressively rushing upfield, give Edwards a delayed draw and let him rip a few.
But if the pass pro issues are resolved, and Edwards in motion draws man coverage--dude. Throw the man the damn ball.
As the Iowa secondary in @Seth's thought bubbles might say, "I feel the need--the need for speed!"
Also, it's UCLA. Not Directional School State.
This seems to be the conventional wisdom. JJ should come back and be the #1 QB in next year's draft. I personally find it hard to believe that his draft stock would rise higher next year if Michigan wins the natty this year, but I'm not an NFL draft guy.
Deep in the heart of Texas, the Ewers camp was already making noises about Ewers coming back--possibly to give Arch Manning something to think about. Maybe JJ's camp ends up doing something similar.
Bottom line on Dante Moore--on one hand, never say no to talent. On the other--I strongly agree with the notion that Michigan has identified a certain personality type that fits the Michigan culture regardless of the number of stars recruiting sites put next to the name. At this point, if Moore wants to come to Michigan, I'm in "show me" mode.
Just wanted to take a moment and reflect that all the questions about Michigan's rotating players at multiple positions might have something to do with transfer portal considerations.
Also freshness, and maybe some packages down the road, and maybe people actually, you know, deserve to see the field.
But, yeah. Come to Michigan and you actually play.
Yes, these are the Good Old Days. Great post.
I was at that game, with my toddler son in a Baby Bjorn (staff at the gate originally wanted him to have a ticket, but thankfully relented).
The kicker had missed, what, 2 or 3 already in that game? Michigan was trailing in the 4th quarter. The Big House was quiet and despondent.
My son had toddled around the plazas for a bit earlier in the game, had stumbled and bumped his head against some bricks. Got a nasty looking gash on his forehead. By the 4th quarter, he was napping in the Baby Bjorn on my chest.
Brabbs kicked that game-winner as time expired and 100,000+ people roared. My son woke up wide-eyed to the noise.
Flash forward 21 years, and that same kid just graduated Michigan Engin '23 this past spring. He reads this site (!) and eats, sleeps, and breathes Michigan football, as he's done all his life.
Brabbs = Butterfly effect.
Except it is Alabama, and Nick Saban, and the results speak for themselves. Would anyone say with a straight face they'd prefer to face this University of Tuscaloosa team instead of FSU?
They have an excellent pass rush and an excellent secondary--sounds like Penn State. They have a mobile quarterback and a couple of excellent wide receivers--sounds like prior year Ohio State teams.
Toughest test yet for this Michigan team, no question. It's going to require an A-game from every aspect of the team, particularly coaching. I don't doubt that Michigan has the athletes to compete and win this team. I do have some doubt about the coaching staff's ability to prepare for a bowl game given the track record. We'll see!
So long as we're clear that Donovan Edwards is a very talented and hard-working player, and that the sources of the issues with his productivity this year lie mostly with the coaching staff, yeah, I agree--right now it feels like Edwards is not the team's second-best option at RB.
Certainly adds fuel to FSU and Clemson's fires, doesn't it.
And Michigan is still salty at the Big Ten.
And the PAC 12 no longer exists.
And Notre Dame is out there looking to negotiate a new TV contract.
And Jim finished his championship podium speech calling for players to be compensated.
2024 is looking like it's going to be a wild, wild ride.
Interesting theory, but if that were true, we would never get sequels, reboots, remakes, or the Hallmark channel.
Nostalgia sells. Bank it.
I assume you meant: “OSU would have wins over very good Penn State [period]. And Notre Dame.”
The Golden Domers are 9-3 with wins over exactly zero ranked teams (and yes, I’m including the now-unranked, 7-5, “we don’t play defense in South Central” USC Trojans—that’s just circular and infuriating logic). They lost in humiliating fashion to OSU, at home, by fielding ten players instead of eleven on the two final, and game winning, plays.
Why is Notre Dame still ranked in the AP poll? Oh, is it because … they’re named Notre Dame, and AP voters ranked them in the preseason polls, and hate to admit that they were wrong? 🧐
This is not to say that OSU wasn’t good this year. They were, comparatively. So was Penn State. But deserving of the playoffs based on that resume, as opposed to the PAC-12 or SEC runners-up? Puh-leeeeeze.
Agreed. I really appreciate @Seth's detailed analysis here.
And I want to shout out the whole @MGoCrew for the explanations on the podcast, as well, particularly as to the series in which OSU ran 8 times for a TD. I'm sure I wasn't the only one taken aback at that moment (especially with Gus Johnson crowing about OSU's "smashmouth" football after the TD).
Understanding better how these things happen--on offense, why what appears to be running into a stacked box makes sense based on the blocking; on defense, why OSU's tempo offense could take advantage of Michigan's personnel--makes me a better fan. Thanks, @Seth and crew!
In fairness--Michigan's offensive line wasn't nearly as elite during the tenure of the Bosas (and much of the tenure of Chase Young), too. Matchups make fights.
I for one am so, so happy for Karsen Barnhardt and Trente Jones to get some validation and vindication out of the adversity they faced this season. That has to be extra sweet.
Taking into account that it was 2nd and 4 near midfield, with Michigan ahead and chewing clock with 5:19 remaining in the game-- I'm guessing Edwards has been drilled repeatedly to follow his blocks and in that circumstance did what his coaches told him to do.
It has to have been a frustrating year for The Don. I doubt things will change this week, but with about a month to prepare for the (no jinx) playoffs, I'm hoping that Michigan will gameplan more special packages for him.
So, all the feels, enjoy the win, yeah, of course.
But, @Brian--
Root for Alabama against Georgia?
This is a dark, dark place to which we've come.
Blake flashing 6-5 after that touchdown will be burned into my memories as one of the greatest moments in Michigan sports.
Same guy that gave away Thanksgiving turkeys with his NIL money.
Same guy that got up every morning at 4 am in high school to commute from Virginia to Baltimore.
Same guy that came back to cement his Michigan legacy.
Same guy shouted out Zak in his postgame interview and stressed that the team was focused on finishing the job--"on to next week."
A Michigan Man.