FSU and Oregon wins: who would #2 UM play in semi?
I know we already have a CFP thread going right now, but this question is so juicy, so complicated, and so important to Michigan (bc UM will likely be the #2 seed), I felt it needs it's own thread:
So, let's assume chalk: FSU wins by it's spread (currently FSU -2.5), finishing 13-0 ACC champs, and Oregon wins by it's spread (currently -9.5), finishing 12-1 PAC-12 champs, who gets the #3 CFP seed and faces UM in the semi-final?
Right now, UW is #3, FSU is #4 and Oregon is #5.
#GoBlue
November 28th, 2023 at 8:06 PM ^
I think the committee will work to create one last Big Ten/Pac Ten Rose Bowl, no matter who the Pac Ten champion is.
November 28th, 2023 at 8:24 PM ^
I'm good with that.
November 28th, 2023 at 11:02 PM ^
foregon conclusion
sic
November 29th, 2023 at 12:00 AM ^
Hopefully Fl. State.
November 28th, 2023 at 8:07 PM ^
Oregon. FSU is weak and they would not be able to resist a BIG v PAC 12 matchup for the last Rose Bowl that could be at all traditional.
November 28th, 2023 at 8:22 PM ^
I think that plus it theoretically rewards Georgia with the easier team after not getting that last year. They'll never admit it, but I think that will be in the back of their minds
November 28th, 2023 at 8:32 PM ^
Like they care anymore?
November 29th, 2023 at 12:07 AM ^
This assumes they have minds.
November 28th, 2023 at 8:08 PM ^
I would guess the committee would go for tradition and put B1G vs Pac12 in the Rose Bowl. And on the merits I can see Oregon > FSU
November 28th, 2023 at 8:09 PM ^
Oh, FSU by a mile. They beat a 5-7 Florida team but were in a fight for a while and I'm not super-sold on Louisville being that great of a team. Oregon can bang with anyone and has playmakers everywhere; give me the team that almost lost to BC and is on their backup QB.
EDIT: Sorry, misread - I thought the question was who would UM want to play. In reality I assume the committee would like to pick Oregon for the Rose Bowl connection, but if UW doesn't win I'm not sure you rate a 1-loss team over an undefeated P5 one.
November 28th, 2023 at 8:16 PM ^
Bingo. That's what makes it an interesting question...
How can you put a 12-1 Pac-12 Oregon over an undefeated 13-0 ACC FSU? I honestly dont know the answer. It's a helluva debate.
#GoBlue
November 28th, 2023 at 8:24 PM ^
Because Oregon would be beating a playoff team in their conference championship and FSU is down their qb.
It would be so much better to get the FSU match up.
November 28th, 2023 at 8:24 PM ^
Yeah, also the logic of "the committee can't resist creating a traditional Rose Bowl matchup" begs the question . . . why? Do the members of the committee get a bag of cash from the Rose Bowl if it gets a bunch of viewers? Are they all on nostalgiaberries? And why would Warde Manuel want Michigan to face Oregon instead of FSU in the semi?
November 28th, 2023 at 11:03 PM ^
Don't make Gene Smith get the Big Ten involved!!!
November 28th, 2023 at 11:19 PM ^
They literally get phone calls from the tv execs, and Manuel too, classic rose bowl matchup makes more money for everyone involved.
November 29th, 2023 at 8:26 AM ^
I don't really think less people are going to watch the CFP games due to matchups, unless there is a Georgia-Bama rematch.
November 28th, 2023 at 8:24 PM ^
It sort of has to be FSU in that case because as a committee you have to "reward" and undefeated P5 conference champ. And there's some symmetry with Georgia playing Oregon again with Dan Lanning being a former DC at Georgia getting a chance with his team, after 2 years, to get revenge as a 1-4 matchup.
November 28th, 2023 at 8:27 PM ^
Your point is what I came to say. The storylines are where tv wants things. They run the committee. Michigan versus anyone has lots of eyes. A Georgia vs FSU is a snoozer every one knows the outcome. A Georgia vs. PAC -12 Champ (especially if it’s Oregon) will assure the networks of two heavily viewed games. Nostalgia is for fans. Matchups are for money.
November 29th, 2023 at 5:49 AM ^
Beat Iowa first. Then this would be my preferable outcome.
November 29th, 2023 at 8:31 AM ^
Nostalgia is for fans. Matchups are for money.
Interesting theory, but if that were true, we would never get sequels, reboots, remakes, or the Hallmark channel.
Nostalgia sells. Bank it.
November 28th, 2023 at 8:57 PM ^
I don't think tinkering with the seeding is as sacrosanct as leaving an undefeated FSU out.
Everyone but Seminoles would perceive FSU to be #4, so I would guess that the committee would place FSU at #4.
November 28th, 2023 at 10:12 PM ^
While these cases are not perfectly identical, it would be puzzling to me if the committee ranked a 12-1 Oregon team above a 13-0 FSU team, given last year's ranking of 12-1 TCU above 11-1 OSU. Maybe I'm misremembering, but wouldn't the common assumption have been that OSU would be a favorite on a neutral field? TCU didn't win their conference, and I take the difference between one win (12 v. 11) to be less significant that the difference between one loss (1 v 0). So, I'd have a hard time believing that the committee would invoke the "better team on a neutral field" justification, when dealing with two power-5 conference champions, where one (FSU) was undefeated. Obviously, Travis's injury is a wildcard, but it's hard to penalize a team if they've managed to keep winning, even if the opponents have been merely above avg. and not elite. Honest question: has the committee ever had to factor in an injury as significant as Travis's?
In the end, I'm happy with any justification that serves our playing FSU--a little revenge for the 2016 Orange Bowl.
November 28th, 2023 at 10:26 PM ^
We've had several miserable defeats to FSU; I'd love to play them. And I love the idea that UM-FSU and GA/OR pulls more viewers than UM/OR and GA/FSU, as suggested above. But I don't buy it. We'll get paired with the PAC 12 champ.
November 28th, 2023 at 10:37 PM ^
From my perspective, you shouldn't base last year's 3/4 seeding on anything about those two teams. 1 and 2 were decided, and then once they knew OSU and TCU were the next two teams, they just avoided a Michigan-OSU rematch in the semis. If we had been given the #1 seed, they absolutely would have flipped OSU and TCU to avoid the rematch that way.
November 28th, 2023 at 11:48 PM ^
Re: injury severity...no.
If the Heisman were an MVP award instead of a MOP award, Travis would be the runaway winner.
November 28th, 2023 at 11:46 PM ^
Because without Jordan Travis, thats a 7 win team, but their record cant be ignored.
November 28th, 2023 at 8:12 PM ^
I don’t believe for a second they’ll have Georgia playing Oregon while UM at #2 gets FSU with a backup QB.
I’m rooting for Alabama and the other unbeatens.
Michigan
Washington
FSU
Texas
No SEC team, unless the committee gives a big middle finger and puts in 1 loss Georgia over 1 loss Alabama, or 1 loss Alabama over 1 loss Texas despite the head to head results.
November 28th, 2023 at 8:17 PM ^
I’m rooting for Georgia because if they lose there is a good shot we play them in the semis, which is the least ideal matchup we could ask for.
November 28th, 2023 at 8:28 PM ^
Agreed. UM wants to avoid GA or Oregon in the semis. Best way to avoid GA in the semi's is for GA to defeat Bama.
Best way for UM to avoid Oregon is obviously for UW to win. 2nd best way for UM to avoid Oregon in the semi's is for FSU to have a strong win over UL.
#GoBlue
November 28th, 2023 at 9:05 PM ^
I’ll wait to see what happens in the noon Big12 game before deciding who to root for in the SEC game. If Texas wins, then I don’t think there’s a danger of Georgia getting the 4 seed if they lose. It’ll be 1-Michigan, 2/3-Bama and Pac12 winner, 4-FSU if they win, Texas if Louisville wins.
So then root for Georgia if we want to play the Pac12 winner. Or root for Bama if we want to play either FSU or Texas. Probably the latter?
November 28th, 2023 at 8:12 PM ^
It would be Oregon. They are the objectively better team than Florida State at this point, and beating an undefeated Washington will give the committee justification for moving them up to 3. If we beat Iowa as we should, and Georgia beats Alabama, I can almost guarantee we play the winner of Washington vs Oregon.
November 28th, 2023 at 8:17 PM ^
If Oregon is objectively better than FSU (I agree Oregon is better, but objectively is as bit too strong), why is the CFP committee currently ranking FSU above Oregon? Oregon is already "objectively" better, so Oregon should already be ahead of FSU?
Fun food for thought.
November 28th, 2023 at 8:53 PM ^
I think it’s objectively now that they lost Travis. There is no way they are one of the 4 best teams without him, and I think Oregon unquestionably is given their dominance over opponents. The committee doesn’t want to have to punish Florida State for an unfortunate injury so they are keeping them ahead of Oregon since they are still undefeated.
November 28th, 2023 at 10:11 PM ^
If you’re going by personnel and star power, you can say “objectively” OSU is better than M. Until they aren’t. This is what the CFP committee gets right and simultaneously wrong. You can’t objectively determine who is better; you can only objectively determine who wins or loses given specific circumstances on a particular day.
The concept of “better” is inherently subjective; the committee understands this and overtly relies on the subjective eyeball test in their determinations. Where it goes wrong is in the language used to frame the CFP as if it were squaring up the four best teams in CFB and crowning The Best as champion. IMO it’s a fool’s errand. No amount of expansion will lead to objectivity when you’re talking a single-elimination tournament.
tl;dr IMO it’s objectively best to embrace the madness of it all and enjoy it rather than getting hung up on 2-dimensional stratification as if it’s objectively meaningful.
November 28th, 2023 at 10:24 PM ^
After seeing what Florida State looks like without Travis, and seeing what Oregon has been doing to opponents, I don’t see how anyone could make a reasonable argument that Florida State is better. That is why I’m saying they are objectively better. Not basing it off of star power or personnel. Even before Travis went down I thought Oregon was clearly the better team.
November 28th, 2023 at 11:37 PM ^
Objective is completely different from reasonable. I’m not arguing that Oregon isn’t better than FSU - I think they are, I agree that this was the case before Travis went out, I expect Oregon to beat UW (far from certain though), and that whoever wins the Pac12 should/will get the 3 seed (unless UGA loses).
But this is perception and prediction. It’s theory, not objective. Objectivity comes from testing and that constrains the scope of objectivity to the specific tangible circumstances being tested.
The difference between theory and practice is that in theory there is no difference. To the extent the CFP makes determinations independent of tangible output as measured in wins/losses is the extent to which they eschew practice in favor of theory. Not saying, just saying.
November 28th, 2023 at 11:30 PM ^
Because Oregon has 1 loss but has yet to play No. 3 Washington. A win on friday will cause them to leapfrog FSU, and rightly so. It’s a formality that FSU is currently ranked ahead of them.
November 28th, 2023 at 8:13 PM ^
The three undefeated teams will be 1-2-3. Oregon will be 4th. Guaranteed.
November 28th, 2023 at 8:15 PM ^
Agreed
November 28th, 2023 at 8:18 PM ^
Hehe. Glad I started this topic. We have all kinds of peeps who have already posted to this thread who are claiming otherwise.
#GoBlue
November 28th, 2023 at 8:15 PM ^
I'm guessing the committee has silently decided that #4 is FSU's ceiling basically no matter what.
November 28th, 2023 at 8:25 PM ^
I think the committee is desperately hoping FSU loses so they have an excuse to leave them out - which they already would like to do
November 28th, 2023 at 8:17 PM ^
Can't know how the committee would come down, but I feel like they tend to rank teams based on how many losses and then only actually apply judgement to separate out teams with the same number of losses. So I'd guess FSU
November 28th, 2023 at 8:19 PM ^
Does Georgia win? I assume you are saying yes they will.
The committee shoud move undefeated conference champion FSU into 3rd. The 3 undefeated conference champions should be 1,2,3.
November 28th, 2023 at 8:32 PM ^
When I mentioned chalk, I also should have written to assume GA/Bama goes chalk.
#GoBlue
November 28th, 2023 at 11:54 PM ^
I dont think its that easy if Oregon avenges their defeat.
The committee is there to seed a tournament, and while 13-0 will absolutely get FSU in, they are pretty clearly the weakest of all contenders without Travis.
November 28th, 2023 at 8:19 PM ^
100% it's the Ducks at 3. The committee would make up some excuse about the strength of the Pac12. But without Travis, FSU isn't at Oregon's level. And while they won't leave out an undefeated ACC champ, they won't feel compelled to rank them as highly.
November 28th, 2023 at 8:20 PM ^
Beat Iowa...
November 28th, 2023 at 8:26 PM ^
If Oregon rolls UW and FSU squeaks by Louisville, it's easily Oregon at #3 and they won't even flinch.
If FSU rolls Louisville (like 50-0), and especially if Oregon is less than dominant, it gets more interesting. They probably would still want to put Oregon #3 but they might not at that point.
Edit: Updated thanks to rob f correction below.