FSU and Oregon wins: who would #2 UM play in semi?

Submitted by greymarch on November 28th, 2023 at 8:04 PM

I know we already have a CFP thread going right now, but this question is so juicy, so complicated, and so important to Michigan (bc UM will likely be the #2 seed), I felt it needs it's own thread:

 

So, let's assume chalk: FSU wins by it's spread (currently FSU -2.5), finishing 13-0 ACC champs, and Oregon wins by it's spread (currently -9.5), finishing 12-1 PAC-12 champs, who gets the #3 CFP seed and faces UM in the semi-final?

 

Right now, UW is #3, FSU is #4 and Oregon is #5.

 

#GoBlue

Qmatic

November 28th, 2023 at 8:27 PM ^

I think best case scenario is to root for all of the favorites to win.

1. Georgia vs 4. FSU in Sugar Bowl

2. Michigan vs 3. Washington in Rose Bowl.

One last “real” Rose Bowl would be fun and I for one would much rather play Washington than Oregon (I’d rather play FSU than either of the two to be honest).

rob f

November 28th, 2023 at 8:42 PM ^

True, unless Georgia loses and Michigan wins, giving Michigan the top seed and their choice of semifinal venues.  In this scenario I think it's likely Michigan still chooses the Rose Bowl, especially if facing an SEC team.  We absolutely DON'T want to let an SEC team face us in New Orleans.

jhayes1189

November 28th, 2023 at 9:01 PM ^

I think they prefer we play Oregon in the Rose Bowl as a final sendoff for the PAC12. 
 

Also, if FSU wins, they would be the preferred doormat matchup for Georgia to guarantee they get in the championship again. FSU is an 8-4 level team without Travis, but they can beat Louisville. 
 

What will be most interesting is what happens if FSU wins, Alabama beat UGA, and what do they do with Texas? 
 

That’s the chaos I’m rooting for. 
 

Ohio State will not back in again

Perkis-Size Me

November 28th, 2023 at 9:06 PM ^

I’d rather play a weakened FSU team, but I have a hard time believing they won’t stick Oregon/Washington in that 3 slot to set up a traditional Rose Bowl matchup.

Playing Oregon would be far and away the toughest matchup. Lanning seems like he is trying to build a West Coast Georgia team. Very big, physical, athletic, and just laying waste to most everyone they play. 

I think Michigan can beat them, but between Washington, Oregon and FSU, they are unquestionably the toughest draw.

MightyMatt13

November 28th, 2023 at 9:13 PM ^

To really make this interesting (assuming all chalk in your scenario), you want to see Washington cover that number and FSU boat race Louisville.

The committee ranked Louisville 14, that's something.

aiglick

November 28th, 2023 at 9:53 PM ^

Also as a follow up I want Michigan, Washington, FSU, Texas, and Bama to win. The SEC would get left out IMO in that scenario due to Texas beating Bama. You have to give them credit for that.

nerv

November 28th, 2023 at 10:34 PM ^

Definitely no repercussions. Just about everyone thinks Bama & Texas are better teams. And they are. FSU has the weakest team and are from the weakest conference. There will be little to no outcry about them getting bumped from anywhere outside of Tallahassee.

GoBlueBill

November 28th, 2023 at 10:01 PM ^

They might move up Oregon to 3, they are just looking for a reason to match up Big Ten vs Pac Ten  or 12 or whatever they are . Id prefer to face FSU over Oregon 

MichiganFootball1313

November 28th, 2023 at 10:05 PM ^

After me last year rooting/wishing/hoping/praying to play TCU and being extremely confident in a win and then have what happened happen…I’m not longer wishing to play any certain team. Just win three more games. 

nerv

November 28th, 2023 at 10:29 PM ^

FSU is going to get the Kenyon Martin Cinci Bearcats treatment and get bumped out of the playoff because they don't have their QB. I think a 1 loss Texas gets in over FSU. I could see Georgia & Bama both getting in over them if Bama wins the SEC.

Shorty the Bea…

November 28th, 2023 at 10:35 PM ^

They will give Oregon the three seed because they are obviously playing better and feel the 1 seed deserves the weakest team in.

They will justify putting FSU at 4 by saying they got in and that's what matters, and they will be right to do so.

I just want Bama to beat to UGA and M to get four seed FSU!

Yo_Blue

November 28th, 2023 at 11:05 PM ^

Here's the real question...

M wins, Washington wins, FSU wins, Alabama beats Georgia. The three undefeated teams are in. Who gets the fourth? There is a case for GA, AL, TX, OSU.