Why is he supposed to mention Harbaugh? Nowhere does he even mention Michigan. It's like short section on the Shanahan/McVay give and take in a much larger article covering all sorts of transactions.
The assumption that the talent in the NFL is a homogenous pile of "NFL" is completely false. The Giants rolled out pretty emphatically the worst LB room in the league this last year for example. They also had a extremely high end DT in Lawrence. I'm also pretty confident that a coach with 10ish years in NCAA and 20ish the NFL will understand that his teenagers are not all NFL players.
This could not possibly be more incorrect. NFL strength coaches are massively important and accomplished people. I've been involved with S&C on NCAA and NFL level and this is some real bad information.
Easier to get stronger when you have no class, NCAA, etc. NFL S&C coaches know what they're doing as well and have a ton of resources and time (fewer players). Plus he's a guy who might get quite a bit more salary than NIL.
I'll add that obviously price is an individual determination, but I have YTTV and give it 11/10. I work in sports professionally and it's just about the best service I've found for all the leagues I need to watch/care about, and it works seamlessly on phone, TV, etc.
DTLA is totally solid. Not like a "regular" center city kind of vibe (for better/worse). Lots of hotel options particularly closer to the stadiums/convention center part. Koreatown is cool as well and close to DTLA also.
If there are single season events that drive results up/down out of line with pre-season projections, those are incorporated into the model. If Steph Curry misses ten 3PA in a row, is he suddenly bad? The "program" itself feeds into these models as OSU has a massive surplus of talent, wins at a super high rate, and generally is highly productive. A bit of a QB wobble isn't going to systematically change those underlying factors.
Professional in the world of sports analytics/modeling here. It's not weird at all! It provides a measure of stability and given the small N of football in particular, it's helpful to essentially fold predictions into each other. Given that S&P is prediction focused (this is good) anything that reduces error is generally helpful.
In my experience (outside of 2020/2021), these tend to be on the higher side so people don't get cranky. Also, since JPX have been around for a bit, it's not like they're sold out from brand new releases.
Gambling is probabilities, when the books are confident in a price/prop whatever, they take on asymmetrical money absolutely. I have worked with books data science teams quite a bit in the modeling space. The 50/50 idea was potentially a strategy back in the day, but it’s not a explicit goal currently by any means.
Categorically false. Books absolutely do not seek to have equal action. They will take on liabilities based on the confidence of their predictive models.
Not sure why you need sarcastic quotes around experts for Andy and Bud when they are talking about recruiting. All the ratio indicates is that a certain baseline of talent is necessary to be successful at the highest levels. Michigan is one of the teams who has that level of talent.
Those cut blocks where the LB goes flying are actually tough for QBs as there's now a guy flying at his feet while they try to step up into pocket/throw.
It's *not* a game level prediction tool. It's a descriptive chart. SP+, a game level predictive metric, has Alabama at 29.7 (#2) and Illinois at 11.5 (#28)
They are opponent adjusted, but important to note that this is not a game prediction model. Something like SP+ would be the better way to look at it from a "who will win this game" perspective.
The pass/run splits are wildly out of scope of what non-disastrous NFL do. The Michigan offense is a good NCAA offense, but it does not resemble modern, effective NFL offenses. Which is fine!
That top chart is like five years out of date. You’re implying that for one penalty on one side of the ball there’s a shadowy conspiracy by the Big Ten to hurt their most/second most valuable asset?
It’s optimized for prediction, and keeping preseason info in (and decaying it) is more accurate than not including it,. Therefore, it’s a feature not a bug.
LJ was 21/29 for 318 with 3/0 with a 142.6 rating. He was essentially perfect throwing in that game! It was non-LJ runners who couldn't get anything going.
I read quickly on my phone, but didn't see any adjustment for size of the schools? For example, Johns Hopkins and Cal Tech were both 25+ but those are mega premium schools that happen to not be that big.
Confirmed. Books absolutely don't shoot for 50/50. The opening lines are intentionally not over-engineered, and then sharp money and the market will move it around a bit. However, they're 100% ok with asymmetrical betting because they're confident in their lines.
There's a material difference between hacks at a 24hr fitness and major D1 S&C coach.
I promise you they do understand strength, power, etc. Further, muscle quality isn't a thing unless you're talking about specific fiber types. OL vs. DL has enormous skill components as well, there's a reason position coaches are a thing.
You absolutely can teach speed. Running mechanics, reaction time, strength/power improvement, etc. Herbert seems really great, but *all* S&C coaches who aren't total charlatans will have guys get faster.
Cal’s stadium is on campus and legit accessible via public transit with tons of food/drink options close by. That plays a huge role. Source: I went to Cal
Middle of 2nd means that there are only like 40 players *in the world* who have more potential/likelihood than he does, and C is the roster spot with the fewest count overall. Making the NBA is insanely hard, even more so for a C who isn't above the rim or a shooter.
Yep. Diabete is a small non-vertical 5 with limited offensive skills. Houstan is a 3.75 that has an aesthetically pleasing shot and the framework of an established position. Pretty easy to turn the dials and knobs a bit and see Houstan in a specific role, whereas Diabate is less clear.
This is literally what this process is for. Of course Juwan tells him what to work on, but new evaluations from other people who work at the place you want to work is super valuable. I guarantee that no one is "annoyed" that he took advantage of a service offered to him explicitly for this reason.
So you think that the 30 odd so other hyper competitive billionaires would be totally chill with being cheated out of a draft pick? And that Deloitte would be ok with potentially wrecking their corporate reputation? Or that Vegas wouldn't have figured this out?
I think you wildly underestimate the difficulty of being an NBA backup. You can’t play “traditional” C in the league if you’re a defensive disaster and not a rim protector, because that means on a P&R, both switching and dropping is bad. There’s a far far better chance that he never plays in a game compared to a ten year career.
I mean with Brian Kelly getting 10M a year or so and flaking on his team, I think "trade school for the NFL" makes a whole bunch more sense than any other alternative. Didn't we all go to school to learn a trade?
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It 100% does not have anything to do with this. Not everyone gets invited and if you do go, there are responsibilities, etc.
What's the issue with it?
I will contend that Baltimore Ravens is one of the best names in all of sports. Unique, local, and good colors.
If your job involved making a rare, massively impactful, expensive, and public decision, than yes.
Why is he supposed to mention Harbaugh? Nowhere does he even mention Michigan. It's like short section on the Shanahan/McVay give and take in a much larger article covering all sorts of transactions.
Great point, the band should get part of the millions/billions of TV revenue as well.
He's exactly the same age as Jim Harbaugh.
The assumption that the talent in the NFL is a homogenous pile of "NFL" is completely false. The Giants rolled out pretty emphatically the worst LB room in the league this last year for example. They also had a extremely high end DT in Lawrence. I'm also pretty confident that a coach with 10ish years in NCAA and 20ish the NFL will understand that his teenagers are not all NFL players.
Zero percent chance of Wink to SF. They want a more linear continuation of the Salah/Ryans Seattle/Carroll tree and Wink is very very not that.
I mean I love MGoRadio, but they're wrong about NFL S&C coaches if they think they're useless. Not really much else to add.
This could not possibly be more incorrect. NFL strength coaches are massively important and accomplished people. I've been involved with S&C on NCAA and NFL level and this is some real bad information.
Easier to get stronger when you have no class, NCAA, etc. NFL S&C coaches know what they're doing as well and have a ton of resources and time (fewer players). Plus he's a guy who might get quite a bit more salary than NIL.
Not to be rude, but there is a zero percent chance JJ is even close to the #1 QB. He's between 4-6 on almost every board I've seen.
I'll add that obviously price is an individual determination, but I have YTTV and give it 11/10. I work in sports professionally and it's just about the best service I've found for all the leagues I need to watch/care about, and it works seamlessly on phone, TV, etc.
Put down the tin foil.
DTLA is totally solid. Not like a "regular" center city kind of vibe (for better/worse). Lots of hotel options particularly closer to the stadiums/convention center part. Koreatown is cool as well and close to DTLA also.
I believe you're looking for "fuck up at full speed" which is the phrase I like
Eugene and Seattle are A++ road trips, particularly in early/mid Fall.
Seconding what everyone else also says, getting out of LA Coliseum if it's a full crowd is *brutal*.
If possible, a evening/night game in the Rose Bowl is awesome. Sun setting, good views, etc. Coliseum is kind of meh.
If there are single season events that drive results up/down out of line with pre-season projections, those are incorporated into the model. If Steph Curry misses ten 3PA in a row, is he suddenly bad? The "program" itself feeds into these models as OSU has a massive surplus of talent, wins at a super high rate, and generally is highly productive. A bit of a QB wobble isn't going to systematically change those underlying factors.
Professional in the world of sports analytics/modeling here. It's not weird at all! It provides a measure of stability and given the small N of football in particular, it's helpful to essentially fold predictions into each other. Given that S&P is prediction focused (this is good) anything that reduces error is generally helpful.
In my experience (outside of 2020/2021), these tend to be on the higher side so people don't get cranky. Also, since JPX have been around for a bit, it's not like they're sold out from brand new releases.
Mizuno is always on the slower end of things. Here's estimates from 2nd Swing on lead times. I got a custom TM order within 12 days last month.
Fitting is a very good investment if you're serious(ish) about golf. It helps players of all abilities but definitely isn't a panacea.
Mizuno: 4-5 weeks
Callaway: 2-3 weeks
Ping: 2-3 weeks
Titleist: 2-3 weeks
Scotty Cameron Putters: 2-3 weeks
Taylormade: 1-3 weeks
Wilson: 1-2 weeks
Cobra: 2-3 weeks
Srixon/Cleveland: 1-2 weeks
Bettinardi: 4-5 weeks
Tour Edge: 1-2 week
Gambling is probabilities, when the books are confident in a price/prop whatever, they take on asymmetrical money absolutely. I have worked with books data science teams quite a bit in the modeling space. The 50/50 idea was potentially a strategy back in the day, but it’s not a explicit goal currently by any means.
Categorically false. Books absolutely do not seek to have equal action. They will take on liabilities based on the confidence of their predictive models.
Not sure why you need sarcastic quotes around experts for Andy and Bud when they are talking about recruiting. All the ratio indicates is that a certain baseline of talent is necessary to be successful at the highest levels. Michigan is one of the teams who has that level of talent.
Those cut blocks where the LB goes flying are actually tough for QBs as there's now a guy flying at his feet while they try to step up into pocket/throw.
It's *not* a game level prediction tool. It's a descriptive chart. SP+, a game level predictive metric, has Alabama at 29.7 (#2) and Illinois at 11.5 (#28)
They are opponent adjusted, but important to note that this is not a game prediction model. Something like SP+ would be the better way to look at it from a "who will win this game" perspective.
The pass/run splits are wildly out of scope of what non-disastrous NFL do. The Michigan offense is a good NCAA offense, but it does not resemble modern, effective NFL offenses. Which is fine!
All four of those teams offenses are wildly different from each other.
That top chart is like five years out of date. You’re implying that for one penalty on one side of the ball there’s a shadowy conspiracy by the Big Ten to hurt their most/second most valuable asset?
I can absolutely guarantee that lines are not set by modern books to get 50/50 action.
It’s optimized for prediction, and keeping preseason info in (and decaying it) is more accurate than not including it,. Therefore, it’s a feature not a bug.
LJ was 21/29 for 318 with 3/0 with a 142.6 rating. He was essentially perfect throwing in that game! It was non-LJ runners who couldn't get anything going.
I read quickly on my phone, but didn't see any adjustment for size of the schools? For example, Johns Hopkins and Cal Tech were both 25+ but those are mega premium schools that happen to not be that big.
Confirmed. Books absolutely don't shoot for 50/50. The opening lines are intentionally not over-engineered, and then sharp money and the market will move it around a bit. However, they're 100% ok with asymmetrical betting because they're confident in their lines.
There's a material difference between hacks at a 24hr fitness and major D1 S&C coach.
I promise you they do understand strength, power, etc. Further, muscle quality isn't a thing unless you're talking about specific fiber types. OL vs. DL has enormous skill components as well, there's a reason position coaches are a thing.
You absolutely can teach speed. Running mechanics, reaction time, strength/power improvement, etc. Herbert seems really great, but *all* S&C coaches who aren't total charlatans will have guys get faster.
Cal’s stadium is on campus and legit accessible via public transit with tons of food/drink options close by. That plays a huge role. Source: I went to Cal
Nerlens had way more vertical pop though. That's my concern with Diabate - would love to see him just play way more above the rim.
Middle of 2nd means that there are only like 40 players *in the world* who have more potential/likelihood than he does, and C is the roster spot with the fewest count overall. Making the NBA is insanely hard, even more so for a C who isn't above the rim or a shooter.
Yep. Diabete is a small non-vertical 5 with limited offensive skills. Houstan is a 3.75 that has an aesthetically pleasing shot and the framework of an established position. Pretty easy to turn the dials and knobs a bit and see Houstan in a specific role, whereas Diabate is less clear.
Good rule of thumb is that NBA players in warm-ups and practice hit about 2x the FG% they do in games. They're impossibly good.
This is literally what this process is for. Of course Juwan tells him what to work on, but new evaluations from other people who work at the place you want to work is super valuable. I guarantee that no one is "annoyed" that he took advantage of a service offered to him explicitly for this reason.
Small no shooting PGs with below the rim athleticism = losses.
So you think that the 30 odd so other hyper competitive billionaires would be totally chill with being cheated out of a draft pick? And that Deloitte would be ok with potentially wrecking their corporate reputation? Or that Vegas wouldn't have figured this out?
I think you wildly underestimate the difficulty of being an NBA backup. You can’t play “traditional” C in the league if you’re a defensive disaster and not a rim protector, because that means on a P&R, both switching and dropping is bad. There’s a far far better chance that he never plays in a game compared to a ten year career.
I mean with Brian Kelly getting 10M a year or so and flaking on his team, I think "trade school for the NFL" makes a whole bunch more sense than any other alternative. Didn't we all go to school to learn a trade?