Jimmystats: July 2019 Recruiting Deltas

Jimmystats: July 2019 Recruiting Deltas Comment Count

Seth July 13th, 2018 at 11:17 AM

Let's stare at stars [Patrick Barron]

Starting last year I began keeping track on the changes in recruiting rankings, since movement tends to tell us things about a recruit that their ratings at any given moment do not.

I was putting this together a month ago actually, but then half of the high schoolers in America committed to Michigan and this post was left in the bin. Since we have a bunch of new recruits and 247 just updated their rankings yesterday based on their scouting from various summer camps, it's a good time to check in. Anyway that's why there's the weirdness of June 15 rankings on everybody committed by then—I figured you'd prefer I leave those in.

Things to keep in mind:

  1. Recruiting gravity means rankings will slowly drop as more players are scouted and slotted ahead of them. Going from the #209 to #225 player in a month isn't a drop unless his rating dropped too.
  2. I didn't get around to taking snapshots of Rivals and ESPN in late May, and only got the new commits' data when they dropped. As this series continues we'll have more complete data.
  3. By now I imagine you're familiar with the three sites' rating systems but just in case: For 247 the 80-89 range are 3-stars, the 90-97 range are the 4-stars, and 98+ are 5-stars. ESPN is on a 100 scale, so 70s are 3-stars, 80s are 4-stars, 90s are 5-stars. Rivals uses the old National Recruiting Advisor system: 5.5 to 5.7 are 3-stars, 5.8 to 6.0 are 4-stars, and 6.1 is a 5-star. The 247 composite can be read like you put a "%" next to their regular ratings, so .9000 is the cut-off for a 4-star instead of 90.

QB Cade McNamara

Service March 17 (committed) June 15 Today
247Sports 90, #305 Ovr, #9 PRO 90, #310 Ovr, #10 PRO 90, #321 Ovr, #10 PRO
Rivals 5.8, NR, #9 Pro 5.8, NR, #9 Pro 5.8, NR, #10 Pro
ESPN 78, #296 Ovr, #8 Pro, #45 West 78, #296 Ovr, #8 PRO, #45 West 81, #240 Ovr, #14 Pro, #36 West
Composite 0.9004, #316 Ovr, #9 PRO 0.9067, #263 Ovr, #10 PRO 0.9067, #269 Ovr, #10 PRO

Michigan's (first?) quarterback of the class is climbing steadily, and got bumped to a strong 4-star when ESPN solidified their Top 300, which means he survived a bunch of other recently scouted quarterbacks moving up. On the other hand they slid a good six other quarterbacks ahead of him, including BC-bound Sam Johnson from Walled Lake Western.

McNamara's been participating in whatever the new format of the Elite 11 is, and his performance so far has crystallized the opinion of him as a four-star but still just outside everyone's Top 250.

His reported weight is up too. He's now 206 (247) or 202 (Rivals) or 203 (ESPN) lbs, up from 179.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the class]

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Friday Recruitin' Flings Arms From Body To Demonstrate Athletic Prowess

Friday Recruitin' Flings Arms From Body To Demonstrate Athletic Prowess Comment Count

Brian May 18th, 2018 at 12:15 PM

Next commit is fairly obvious

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wingspaaaaaaan

GA CB DJ Turner has fielded a number of Michigan crystal balls in recent days, and since he's also set a commit date of June 25th those have extra oomph. Turner is a 3.5 star sort who has some big name schools after him—he recently visited ND and scheduled a trip to Florida this weekend.  He was more of a 4 star sort until recently, when a 247 composite update dropped him from #280 to #435.

If Turner does end up committing—and it's not entirely clear if there's serious competition—that would probably signal the end of CB recruiting. Michigan flipped FL CB Te'Cory Couch from Tennessee a few weeks back and took five defensive backs last year.

Potential committed risers

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wingspaaaaan

Two commits have put in impressive camp performances and may be in for a rankings rise. MI OL Karsen Barnhart drew mention as a top performer at two recent regional shoe-sponsored camps. Wiltfong at the local Opening regional:

…won the majority of his reps in 1-on-1s, a wide body that moved well, could match power with power and also had the quickness to take on outside pass rushers.

And Trieu in Chicago for a UA camp:

…yet another good performance here. He can bend and move his feet. He is still learning technical aspects of pass pro but right now his competitiveness and athleticism allows him to win.

Per Webb, Barnhart plays in a wing-T in high school so the technical aspects of pass protection are not exactly emphasized. Barnhart reports that Michigan sees him as a tackle and, early, as a bonus TE a la Spanellis last year. Video here for 24/7 subscribers.

Only 24/7 reported from either of these camps so don't expect big rankings fireworks across the now three sites that rate folks. I'd imagine he moves into the four star range there; he's currently just outside it at #381.

Since he is a quarterback and will be at the Opening, NV QB Cade McNamara has a better shot at significant moves up *cough* industry-wide. Brandon Huffman had him the top offensive player at the Vegas Opening regional:

 …was ripping the ball through windy conditions early on in the camp and threw with a lot of poise and confidence throughout. He was accurate, threw with touch and showed off the quickest release in the camp. McNamara was the lone signal caller invited to the Elite 11 Finals next month in Southern California.

Rivals did not attend the camp but Adam Ghabour caught up with McNamara afterward:  

“I feel like my release is so different, and something that no one else has,” McNamara said. “I don’t really know if there was something special [about my performance]. I just went out and did what had to be done. I felt like I was very accurate. I had a lot of zip on my ball, and I was able to control my ball really well when it came to one on ones, and I put the ball in the right place.”

McNamara is already a composite four star in the top 300 so he'll have more resistance in front of him if he wants to move up; the Opening will be a good oportunity to do so.

Defensive ends solid?

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wingspaaaa- aw cumong man

Michigan got two high-profile early commitments from defensive ends, one of which people had written off as KY DE Stephen Herron supposedly made googly eyes with Stanford. If that was the case at one time it is apparently no longer so, per Josh Newkirk:

“It’s pretty strong,” he said of his Michigan commitment. “A lot of schools like Stanford push pretty hard. My best friend went to Purdue, they push pretty hard. … But other than that, I try to stay really committed to my commitment. I got a year left. But I’m not looking right now.”

Herron says he has no intentions on visiting other programs either.

“It’s not planned,” he said.

"Commit is committed" is usually not that newsworthy, but this is a bit different. A majority of Herron's crystal balls, including ours, are still Stanford flip picks, and OH DE Gabe Newburg's commit was widely interpreted as something Herron-related. Apparently not?

Meanwhile, GA DE Chris Hinton has not given anyone a reason to think he's wavering in his commitment but Georgia's Rivals site checked in anyway. Verdict: waste of time.

Athough Hinton has been firmly committed for a long time, it hasn't stopped the pursuit of several schools.

"I have not visited anywhere else since I committed. I’m pretty solid on that," Hinton said on his Michigan commitment. "Georgia for sure. Stanford and Clemson. That is really the big three still coming at me hard."

At the end of the article Hinton does admit that if "something crazy" happened he'd look around, as one does when someone asks you a bunch of questions and won't stop until he gets something approximating a "correct" answer.

Still in search of DEs though

Even with Herron apparently solid to give Michigan a three-DE class there are some more guys being heavily pursued.

NJ DE Aeneas DiCosmo has Michigan in his top five and is coming up on a decision. Since that top five is Stanford, M, Notre Dame, Northwestern, and… uh… Clemson, it's clear that academics are meaningful for DiCosmo, and that often means fist-shaking in Stanford's direction.

That may be the case here too, as Brian Dohn asserts that this weekend's trip to The Very Inaccurately Named Farm is "huge" because several people have told me it is "a dream offer." DiCosmo has visits to ND and Michigan set up for mid-June, with Michigan batting cleanup. It kind of sounds like Michigan would do well to just get to that visit without a Stanford commit happening. A bunch of crystal balls for Stanford have already come in.

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close enough! wingspaaaaaan

KS DE Marcus Hicks has Michigan in his top two with Oklahoma…

After taking … trips Hicks will be ready to trim his list of suitors down to a more manageable five. For now, though, he can only name two that will definitely make the cut.

Said Hicks, “I think Oklahoma and Michigan would be in there.”

…and 13 OU predictions on the crystal ball. Michigan's best bet is that this is one of those recruitments. The Oklahoma 24/7 site:

They do feel confident in Hicks, but they are getting frustrated that he has not pulled the trigger and they are recruiting other DE and DT.

Hicks told Sam Webb that he would be taking his recruitment into the fall, so could be one of those things where the school is all like "you gonna commit" and the recruit is like "in a bit" and the school is like "we will now court these other large angry people" and the recruit is like "I take offense!" and then everything falls apart not like this has happened to Michigan ever.

Another point in Michigan's favor as they try to make up the gap: Hicks is taking the ol' road game unofficial as Michigan plays ND in the opener.

Etc.

CA LB Tristan Sinclair is a guy to keep on the radar as a potential VIPER(!); no offer yet.

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Fairly Belated 2019 Recruiting Overview: Offense, Part 1

Fairly Belated 2019 Recruiting Overview: Offense, Part 1 Comment Count

Brian April 12th, 2018 at 1:35 PM

This usually comes out shortly after Signing Day, but due to a combination of football ennui and blog-wide health issues that forced your author to pick up portions of the basketball coverage the traditional 1,000 foot view for the upcoming football recruiting year has been delayed. Do not complain about this. I am more than capable of writing a long post about local politics instead.

Anyway:

QUARTERBACK

ROSTER. Michigan added Shea Patterson, who should be a true junior if the NCAA appeal doesn't get borked, to redshirt sophomore Brandon Peters and redshirt freshman Dylan McCaffrey. True freshman Joe Milton arrived this spring. Even if Michigan loses someone to a transfer—all but inevitable these days when you have four QBs and no seniors—they'd be in good shape if they didn't ignore QBs all together.

image

CSI: QB: AWESOME EDIT [sunglasses!]

COMMITS. Surprise: they have not ignored QBs all together, scooping up 3.5* Notre Dame decommit Cade McNamara less than two weeks after he pulled the ripcord on his descent into South Bend. McNamara is a bit of an outlier for Harbaugh QB recruits in that he's not a towering pocket passer. He's a moderate-sized pocket passer at 6'1". The ND decommit happened after a flurry of offers (or offer-type substances) from heavy hitters like Georgia, Alabama, and USC, but since he's in Nevada he might have a hard time moving up the rankings.

FURTHER NEEDS. None.

RECRUITS. None. Michigan has not undertaken 2019 QB recruiting activities since McNamara's commitment. They seem to have fully set their sights on 2020 QBs.

RUNNING BACK/FULLBACK

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tbh at this point I'd rather have a 3.5 star [Eric Upchurch]

ROSTER. Michigan has eight tailbacks and is set to lose only Karan Higdon after the season. Chris Evans is the only other upperclassman. Even if Michigan suffers an unexpected bit of attrition the need here is low, especially after the late add of ATH Michael Barrett.

At fullback Michigan has sophomore Ben Mason and freshman Ben VanSumeren and is probably set.

COMMITS. None.

FURTHER NEEDS. They're certainly seeking at least one tailback. Anything additional would be a luxury.

RECRUITS. It's unlikely Michigan pulls a big name. Everyone they're pursuing is out of region and most are from the south. Five-star NC RB Quavaris Crouch is the big name, and he has been on campus. Unfortunately, Lorenz reports that his head coach has moved on and that was Crouch's main Michigan connect. Chances of pulling Crouch away from the rest of the country were already pretty low and are now lower.

Almost everyone else listed as a target is in the "not likely" bin, if not the "why are we even talking about this?" bin. They include LA RB John Emery Jr, who put Michigan in a top eight but remains a highly touted guy from Louisiana; MS RB Jerrion Ealy, who is from Mississippi, committed to Ole Miss, and thinking about a Bama flip; NC RB Khafre Brown, whose brother signed with UNC last year and has a blizzard of unofficial visits to the Tarheels to overcome; IMG's Noah Cain, who's barely drawn mention from the Michigan Insider in months and has 15 Not Michigan crystal balls to five different schools.

The one four star who's drawn chatter who seems achievable is CA RB Zach Charbonnet, who attends Westlake Christian. Westlake does export kids to high academic out of state schools fairly regularly. He seems like a plan B for Notre Dame, which is always a threat for Westlake kids—what what Jimmy Clausen—and 247 has just UCLA and Washington as "warm" schools other than Michigan. Charbonnet made it up for a visit about a month ago.

If it's not Charbonnet it's going to be someone off the radar. This is mostly fine given Michigan's success with highly touted backs over the last… decade? 15 years? I'm not sure there's any period in time during which top 100-ish backs outperform three stars for M. Lorenz suggests that KS RB Breece Hall and MO RB Kyren Williams are lower-rated guys who Michigan will pursue.

WIDE RECEIVER

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ROSTER. A year after a bumper crop saw a four-star move to safety, Michigan took only flier recruit Ronnie Bell. Numbers are a priority here despite only having one senior (Grant Perry) unless Michigan wants to have another year like 2017, when they had virtually no experience and it showed.

COMMITS. None.

FURTHER NEEDS. Michigan needs two or three WRs. Outside preferably.

RECRUITS. This is grim. I don't think there's a single crystal ball out for Michigan at WR. There certainly hasn't been one since November started. And there are few targets out there Michigan is even mentioned with. Michigan likely to be just a hat on the table for a USC-bound Kyle Ford; ditto except for Florida State for FL WR John Dunmore. Dunmore was scheduled to be up this weekend, but with the spring game canceled that trip probably is as well. Michigan didn't even draw mention in a Wiltfong article about IN WR David Bell three days ago. MD WR John Metchie is supposed to be on campus this weekend—again, maybe—and is one of those guys who's been to a particular school a ton (PSU in this case) and will be an uphill climb for anyone else.

There are two guys who have recently been on campus. 3* CT WR Cornelius Johnson took an unofficial, but the shape of his recruitment doesn't look particularly promising:

Next up for Johnson is an April 25 visit to California. He also is scheduling a return trip to Notre Dame, and with Penn State offering Monday, a return visit to Happy Valley could take place. He is also looking at trips to West Virginia, Northwestern and Duke.

ND has three crystal ball predictions, FWIW. TX WR Dylan Wright took a swing through Michigan and Notre Dame, and did say Michigan was certainly in line for an official afterwards. That's all you can hope for as an out of region prospect, but Michigan would need 4-5 guys in Wright's position to expect to land one.

That is the entire WR board until Michigan starts firing out offers to three stars.

In all likelihood Michigan's entire skill position class is going to consist of fliers, late bloomers, sleepers, guys who recently emerged from a coma, and the like. These are the wages of having the worst passing offense imaginable and not having a WR coach who can go on the road to recruit until you hire… uh… Jim McElwain.

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Hello: Cade McNamara

Hello: Cade McNamara Comment Count

Ace March 17th, 2018 at 2:37 PM

While basketball rules the weekend, the football program has been going to work on the 2019 class, and it paid off last night in a big-time commitment. Four-star Reno (NV) Damonte Ranch quarterback Cade McNamara, a recent Notre Dame decommit, announced his pledge to Michigan on Twitter, choosing the Wolverines over offers from Alabama, Georgia, and USC, among others.

While one can safely assume McNamara hasn't shot a man in Reno, he's watched a lot of defenses die: the junior was the Gatorade Player of the Year in Nevada after accounting for over 3500 yards and 48 touchdowns in his third year as the varsity starter. He's the sixth commit in Michigan's 2019 class, which now ranks fifth in the country, and the first at quarterback.

GURU RATINGS

Rivals ESPN 247 247 Comp
4*, 5.8, #9 Pro-QB 3*, 78, #8 QB-PP,
#296 Ovr
4*, 90, #9 Pro-QB,
#303 Ovr
4*, #9 Pro-QB,
#316 Ovr

McNamara is just a bit outside the Rivals250 (their #7 pro-style QB makes the cut), and in fact is better-regarded there than at ESPN, which includes him at the tail end of their top-300 list but only gives him three stars, and 247, which has him just outside their top 300 overall. That's a pretty tight range in rankings for a quarterback still yet to play his senior season.

McNamara is listed at 6'1" at all three sites with a strangely wide range of weights, as low as 170 pounds (Rivals) and as high as 203 (ESPN). The latter figure, which appears to come from a Nike camp, looks more accurate. 247 splits the difference at 187 pounds, FWIW. His shorter-than-prototype size limits how high he'll rise in the rankings (and how many programs will show interest); as we've seen with some prominent quarterbacks lately, that doesn't mean he won't be a very productive signal-caller.

[Hit THE JUMP for scouting, video, and more.]

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2019 QB Cade McNamara Commits To Michigan

2019 QB Cade McNamara Commits To Michigan Comment Count

Ace March 16th, 2018 at 8:48 PM

Four-star Reno (NV) Damonte Ranch quarterback Cade McNamara made an early commitment to Notre Dame last July. He picked up a Michigan offer in January. On March 3rd, he decommitted from the Irish. This evening, he posted some news:

McNamara is the sixth commit in the 2019 class, which now ranks fifth nationally, and the first at quarterback. He holds offers from the likes of Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, Wisconsin, and USC. I'll have the full Hello post tomorrow afternoon.

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