blake corum

Tonight the football world turns its attention to downtown Detroit and the 2024 NFL Draft. Over the years of the Jim Harbaugh era we've grown accustomed to Michigan to having quite a few players drafted, but the next three days has the opportunity to be historic. Harbaugh himself was talking up the possibility of Michigan setting NFL Draft records in 2024 last summer and now with only a few hours to Draft Day, it remains plausible. Georgia's 2022 draft remains the record, with 15 players taken off the Bulldogs' national title winning roster. Can Michigan tie, or exceed 15? Today we'll go through each player, their chances of getting drafted, and what NFL Draft scouts are saying about the heroes from Team 144: 

Certain to be drafted (7)

JJ McCarthy

Consensus Big Board ranking: 23 

Likely Draft Day: Thursday  

What scouts are saying: In all likelihood, the first Wolverine off the board will be the QB, JJ McCarthy. Where exactly he goes is up in the air, as it could be as high as #2 (theoretically) and could be somewhere in the teens. The consensus of scouts seems to be more bearish on McCarthy when it comes to actually ranking him, as the consensus big board puts him 23rd, but the sense is that because QB is a premium position, JJ will go higher than that in the actual draft. 

Scouts seem to like McCarthy's athleticism, intangibles/leadership, and arm talent (velocity and accuracy). His winning ways in both high school and college, in addition to his raw tools and mobility as a passer are certainly tantalizing. However, McCarthy's reads and decision-making are seen as areas for uncertainty. The low volume of throws that JJ has made over his Michigan career relative to some of the other top quarterbacks are another example of that uncertainty, a bit more of a mystery component than other QBs posses. Some suggest that it may be best for JJ to sit a year behind an experienced QB, while he continues to develop as a QB reading through his progressions. We shall see whether whichever team inevitably drafts McCarthy in the first round has that plan in mind. 

Kris Jenkins

Consensus Big Board ranking: 49

Likely Draft Day: Friday

What scouts are saying: Jenkins has been on NFL Draft radars for several years now and he seems likely to follow Mazi Smith's path into the league. Smith was drafted 26th in last year's draft, a bit higher than anticipated, but Jenkins' profile and projected ranking is in a similar ballpark. Good, and among the best DTs in the class, but perhaps not an elite stud a la Byron Murphy II or Jer'Zhan "Johnny" Newton. Jenkins generally falls in that second tier of tackles after Murphy and Newton, alongside Ohio State's Michael Hall Jr. and Florida State's (formerly WMU's) Braden Fiske.  

Jenkins' profile is a bit of an unsexy one to a lot of scouts, but with some safe projection. Like most Michigan players, he's lauded for his work ethic and intangibles, the sort of guy NFL teams want to draft. His run defense generally gets favorable reviews from scouts and he graded out very well athletically at the NFL combine. There's also more safety in Kris Jenkins' NFL pedigree through his father, even though the two are built rather differently. Jenkins' counting stat production and general pass rush is what grades out a bit more negatively to scouts, wondering if he has that explosive, home run upside. Still, for teams looking to beef up the D-Line with a safe run stopper who may still have upside to explore (remember Jenkins' body transformation at Michigan), Jenkins is a solid bet and I'd expect him to go in the 2nd round on Friday night. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: all the other guys]

I apologize for this taking awhile to get out but gravity hasn’t been functioning properly since last Monday night, and it’s hard to type when your feet won’t touch the ground. I was also trying to wrap my head around all of the parts of Michigan’s pass defense to show you, until I realized that’s going to require an entire UFR (that and the Rose Bowl one forthcoming).

So let’s do something simple that you can show your friends and relatives for equal enjoyment, that being the Michigan run game that blew a big enough hole in the Washington defense to drive a national championship parade through it.

The star of the Michigan running game, once again, was Duo, the Schembechler favorite that Harbaugh re-popularized in the middle teens. This was foreseeable. Washington has weak DTs and linebackers prone to big mistakes they can’t fix with Alabama LB athleticism. Even without Zak Zinter, Michigan has an experienced, large, mashing offensive line. But to really make it work against Washington, they had to have so much more. And while these plays are probably already being talked to death, when we talk about Michigan’s offense, we ought to understand how much value all of these parts are bringing to a running game that won them the Championship.

[AFTER THE JUMP: Big runs]

Bang, bang. Donovan Edwards put up two 40 yard touchdowns on Michigan's first two drives, and they were more or less the same thing: duo that sucks in Washington defenders followed by Edwards being insanely explosive. Number one:

There was an undercurrent of sardonic amusement amongst the twitterati after this one because it felt like Edwards missed the hole and only got to it by luck after making a mistake, but this is only a touchdown because Edwards initially presses the A gap. That action sucks in three different defenders and when Edwards changes direction, it's over. This is all I want from Donovan Edwards: change direction. If he does that he wins because no one is as explosive as he is.

Number two is all of the gaps (all of the gaps):

That's two TEs, a bonus OL, and Cornelius Johnson. If Zak Zinter was healthy I guarantee you Cornelius Johnson would not be on the field.

Washington does not know what the hell to do with this. They've clearly prepped for the Big Big Boys; all 11 defenders are within six yards of the LOS. But they do not see this and scout team only gets you so far. Edwards again presses a gap he is not going in. The LB level bites on the initial action, and when Edwards cuts back there's nothing but daylight.

There's a fair chance that Edwards scores even if the backside linebacker doesn't fling himself into the line, because that is a truck lane.

These two runs combine with the Penn State explosive to indicate a path forward for Edwards at Michigan if he does decide to return. Yeah, run at a friendly butt. Then do something else. Touchdown. Hooray.

[After THE JUMP: more stuff]