1/1/2024 – Michigan 27, Alabama 20 (OT) – 14-0, 9-0 Big Ten, Big Ten Champs, Rose Bowl Champs

I didn't go to the 1998 Rose Bowl. I was a freshman in college, and thought I'd go to the Rose Bowl when I was a senior. Instead I watched the most important Michigan game since 1948 in my then-girlfriend's house. She chatted in a corner with a friend, not really paying attention. At one point her mom mentioned that if Washington State scored a touchdown she would win a quarter in the office squares competition. I regretted my choice then, and regret it more now.

I did go to the 2004 Rose Bowl. Michigan lost that one due to a confluence of factors—there was a bizarre interception off of Braylon Edwards's foot; Pete Carrol literally refused to run the ball after halftime and was correct—but the main one was that USC was the better team. They'd snag a split national championship after the season. Michigan was good, but John Navarre was a seventh-round pick and the other guy was Matt Leinart. Lendale White, Reggie Bush, and Mike Williams were on that team.

After the game when we got back to the hotel room my dad pulled out the champagne he'd hopefully bought and started drinking it, bemoaning the fact that Michigan never wins these games. I was still young enough that I didn't believe that was the case, but also drowned my sorrows.

I did not go the next year, when Michigan was the first team subject to Vince Young's Epic Glow-Up, nor in 2007. Michigan lost both those games, because Michigan loses bowl games. That's just part of the deal.

I went to the last two playoff games. I spent the second half of the Georgia game in a lounge, not our seats, nursing a beer. Against TCU my brain short-circuited after the Wilson overturn/Mullings fumble sequence. I guess Michigan also loses bowl games. That's just part of the deal.

So, despite best efforts I'd receded into the Black Pit of Negative Expectations with four minutes and change to go. Michigan had the ball on their 25, down 20-13, having done approximately nothing with the ball since scoring a touchdown a half prior. I glowered at the scoreboard and mentally swapped around eight points in various configurations, stewing about the special teams fiascoes that had squandered a dominant first half and seemingly tanked The Year.

I did not see a way out.

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Today, the day after the Rose Bowl, I was fortunate enough to go on a tour of the place. It was slightly surreal to see a phalanx of workers attempt to sweep up the leftover confetti at the same time as I was scooping up pieces and sticking them in my back pocket. Several times I thought I had acquired enough, then decided I should get some more. The Tournament of Roses could have saved themselves some dough by telling any Michigan fan still in the area that they could come get some if they wanted. Then these poor people would not have had to attempt to sweep small pieces of paper on a grass field into plastic bags. I have children, and a rug. I know their pain.

To be perfectly honest, when Seth said we could go do this thing the day after the game I was willing but sort of indifferent. It is a stadium, I have been in it, I am not sure what this is supposed to do for me. But here is a thing: I believe in the Rose Bowl.

This is a silly thing to believe in, because it is a football game played in a certain place on a certain day. It is sillier because college football is devolving into a dick-measuring contest between television executives at FOX and ESPN, destroying any traditions that happen to be in the wrong conference at the wrong time. At this juncture I largely disdain the bowls and their guys in pastel suits attending games for no reason. They all seem like part of the same class of parasitic grandees that sit on top of the players, denying them their share of television revenue. I think college football should dump them all out of the playoff in favor of on-campus games.

At the same time I think the Rose Bowl should be the site of the national championship game every year.

In part this is because the Rose Bowl has made at least some effort to not go the way the rest of college football has. The halftime show consists of the two bands. The title sponsor has to settle for "oh yeah and these guys are presenting the game." There's a statute of Keith Jackson outside the front of the stadium and he will deliver a sermon about the Rose Bowl about 30 minutes before the game on the tiny little video screens. During commercial breaks you will not be exhorted to Light A Mup.

This only extends so far—before Michigan's game-tying touchdown drive ESPN went commercial-kickoff-commercial and nobody tried to stop them. This is a commercial enterprise. But the Rose Bowl matters to me in a way that is more than just a commercial enterprise.

Maybe that's dumb. But it's true that I was standing in Michigan's locker room and the hairs on the back of my neck stood up.

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There was a way out.

Sherrone Moore, who'd rolled only snake eyes during the second half, was once again dialing up the right thing at the right time. A fourth and two conversion saw Blake Corum dart into the flat without anyone following him. QB counter bash ripped off 16 yards, and a play action pass was about to be complete down to the 15 when an Alabama player got a fingertip on McCarthy's throw.

Here, the grand cavalcade of life comes to a screeching halt. Time's arrow only goes one direction but sometimes it slows its velocity drastically. This is generally because you are travelling at a high rate of speed towards utter disaster. I am mentally revising the expected path of McCarthy's pass from Roman Wilson's facemask to the outstretched arms of an Alabama safety. The Alabama safety is doing the same thing. He is leaping, reaching. He feels like Rod Moore watching a wounded duck come out of Kyle McCord's hands. This one isn't even hard—somehow the tip didn't affect the spiral one iota. He is going to win this football game.

I live a lifetime in this moment. I have a PhD in Aramaic that I didn't even want by the time Roman Wilson leaves the ground and extends his arms and snatches the ball away from the Alabama safety. In my mind's eye the safety starts frantically attempting to run while airborne before holding up a sign that says NO FUNERAL and plunging off the cliff to the valley floor below. Another Alabama defender is so stunned by this turn of events that it takes him a moment for his processing to flip from "let a naysayer know, boiii" to "oh shit oh shit." Wilson turns the meteor about to end all life on this planet into first and goal from the five, and when Michigan slips him out into the flat two plays later he is so open he can sort of hop into the endzone.

New ball game, and one team would have already won this game if not for a series of inexplicable special teams gaffes. It takes two Corum runs to punch it in during overtime. The second is a glorious flashback to peak Blake Corum; he's got a linebacker shooting up the gap so he explodes outside, regapping so fast you can't possibly stay with him. Karsen Barnhart somehow does the same thing, picking off the safety, and now it's just arm tackles that aren't going to get it done.

Michigan holds on defense after Milroe sets them up at the nine, stoning two runs to set up third and fourteen. Bama gets back down to the three, but after several hundred timeouts everyone in the stadium knows Jalen Milroe is running the ball. He gets nothing, and Michigan streams onto the field.

I am floored. It suddenly occurs to me that I have just watched Michigan beat Alabama in the Rose Bowl. I turn the words over in my head. Michigan. Beat Alabama. In The Rose Bowl. The woman next to me has been very concerned for me, probably because at every opportunity I have been sitting down and pushing my fingers into my eye sockets, and says she didn't even know who I was rooting for because I had been so tense I couldn't do anything. (This is not quite true, as I have clearly been saying things like "get him" when people are chasing Milroe, but fine.)

I still can't really do anything. It takes me 20 minutes before I think to go find my friend Nick, who went to the Waterloo, Indiana game with me some 14 years ago and waited the exact right amount of time before putting on that Phoenix album as we drove home. For a moment I think he's gone, but no, it also took him 20 minutes to find the capacity to move about the world again. We hug, and here begins a process where every Michigan fan you know will hug you when he sees you for the first time after this game. I have done Craig and Dave and the Sklars and you have probably done a half dozen too.

They say time heals all wounds, but I say beating Alabama in the Rose Bowl does.

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The day after, after I'd scooped up enough confetti (I would scoop up more confetti later), I walked down to the seventeen yard line outside of Michigan's endzone and thought about that run. That cut. The dart. The thing that I thought was lost due to injury and the ravages of time, just like all things eventually are. I didn't run the play, exactly, but I walked through the steps near as I could figure. The cut was here, and then he bursts up field here, and he cuts back outside of Barnhart here, and he spins through the tackle here, and now we're in the endzone.

That endzone is always the endzone Blake Corum scored in. The one in the Rose Bowl, which I believe in.

AWARDS

Known Friends and Trusted Agents Of The Week

[Bryan Fuller]

you're the man now, dog

#1(T) Derrick Moore, Josiah Stewart, Braiden McGregor, Mike Barrett, and Kris Jenkins. The story of this game if Michigan won was going to be Jalen Milroe living under siege in the first half and Bama going away from any sort of downfield passing aside from a drive right at the end of the first half. Michigan does not have a single dominant pass rusher but they have one of the country's best pressure marks anyway. And Michigan won, so it's a party at the top. 5 points each.

#2 JJ McCarthy. Quietly efficient, with 8.2 YPA against Bama's lethal pass defense. Three TDs, no picks thanks to an overturn on his first attempt, and ran for 25 yards on three carries. Had some bumps in there, but made the plays late to tie.

#3 Blake Corum. Explosive OT jump cut gave Michigan the winning points, and was a crucial outlet on two catches: the first Michigan TD and the fourth down conversion on the fourth-quarter TD drive. 4.4 yards a carry on 19 attempts, spiritual rock on offense.

Honorable mention: Mike Sainristil was blitzing off the slot to good effect all game. Mason Graham had a crucial TFL in OT. Rod Moore had a PBU that ended Bama's downfield aspirations for the most part. Will Johnson was targeted just twice and gave up no completions. Tyler Morris not only converted a third and ten but tightroped the sideline and beat Bama's DBs to the pylon. Roman Wilson snagged a tipped ball on Michigan's tying drive and finished it with a TD. Quinten Johnson punched out a fumble.

KFaTAotW Standings.

(points: #1: 8, #2: 5, #3: 3, HMs one each. Ties result in somewhat arbitrary assignments.)

58: JJ McCarthy (#1 ECU, #1 UNLV, #2 Rutgers, HM Nebraska, #2 Minn, #1 IU, #1 MSU, HM PUR, HM PSU, #1 OSU, #2 Bama)
34: Kris Jenkins (HM ECU, T2 UNLV, #1 BGSU, HM Rutgers, #1 Neb, HM MSU, T2 OSU, HM Iowa, T1 Bama)
29: Mike Sainristil (T3 ECU, HM BGSU, #1 Rutgers, HM IU, HM MSU, #1 MD, #1 Iowa, HM Bama)
26: Mason Graham (HM ECU, T2 UNLV, #1 Minn, HM IU, HM MSU, T2 MD, T2 OSU, HM Iowa, HM Bama) 
25: Blake Corum (HM ECU, HM UNLV, #2 BGSU, HM Rutgers, HM Neb, HM IU, #1 PSU, HM MD, #3 OSU, #3 Bama)
21: Kenneth Grant (T3 ECU, T2 UNLV, #2 PSU, T2 MD, T2 OSU, HM Iowa)
20: Mike Barrett (HM UNLV, T3 Rutgers, #2 IU, T1 PUR, HM MD, HM OSU, T1 Bama)
16: Braiden McGregor(T3 UNLV, #2 Nebraska, T1 PUR, HM Iowa, T1 Bama)
15: Roman Wilson (T2 ECU, HM UNLV, HM BGSU, #3 Nebraska, #2 PUR, HM Bama)
13: Colston Loveland (HM Rutgers, T3 IU, T2 MSU, HM PUR, HM MD, #3 OSU)
12: Derrick Moore (T3 UNLV, HM Neb, HM MSU, T1 PUR, T1 Bama)
11: AJ Barner (HM BGSU, HM Neb, HM Minn, T3 IU, T2 MSU, HM PSU), Will Johnson(#3 Minn, #3 PUR, HM PSU, #3 OSU, HM Bama)
10:  Jaylen Harrell (HM UNLV, HM BGSU, HM IU, T1 PUR, #3 OSU, HM Iowa)
9: Junior Colson (#3 BGSU, T3 Rutgers, HM MSU, #3 Iowa), Josiah Stewart (HM Minn, T1 PUR, T1 Bama)
8: Cornelius Johnson (T2 ECU, HM UNLV, HM BGSU, HM Minn, HM Iowa)
5: Tommy Doman (HM ECU, #3 MD, HM OSU), Semaj Morgan(#2 Iowa)
4: Ernest Hausmann (T3 ECU, T3 Rutgers), Max Bredeson (HM Rutgers, HM Neb, T3 IU),  The Offensive Line (HM Minn, #3 PSU),
3: Donovan Edwards (HM ECU, HM PSU, HM OSU), Rod Moore (HM PUR, HM OSU, HM Bama), Quinten Johnson (HM Rutgers, HM OSU, HM Bama)
2:  Josh Wallace (T3 ECU), Semaj Morgan (HM Rutgers, HM PUR), Tyler Morris (HM UNLV, HM Bama)
1: Kalel Mullings (HM Minn),Keon Sabb (HM Minn), Ben Hall (HM IU), Rayshaun Benny (HM PSU), Cam Goode (HM MD), James Turner(HM OSU)

Who's Got It Better Than Us(?) Of The Week

Jalen Milroe gets a low snap and doesn't follow his blocks as a result, ending the game.

Honorable mention: Corum puts Michigan up. Wilson salvages the tip. Milroe is sacked a zillion times. Moore puts together a bravura drive after Alabama goes up 7-0.

MARCUS HALL EPIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK

Semaj Morgan muffs a punt, robbing Michigan of good field position and setting up Alabama with a short field to open up the scoring.

Honorable mention: Jake Thaw muffs a punt, almost leading the the worst way to lose a game in football history. Michigan botches an extra point. James Turner misses a 48-yard field goal. Michigan can't fit an iso on the 34-yard Bama TD. Various mishaps in the second half murder the offense until 4 minutes are left.

NICK SAMAC PATHETIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK

N/A. A missed late hit doesn't really rise to the level we want here. There were no egregious moments.

Dishonorable mention: N/A. 

OFFENSE

[Barron]

The winner. We have a new entrant in the "first thing you think about when someone says the word 'Blake' for the rest of your life" derby. The endzone cam is the best angle on it:

BLAKE CORUM CLUTCH FOR THE OT LEAD!#RoseBowl

https://t.co/y324Ty4n5a

— Bovada (@BovadaOfficial) January 2, 2024

This is a counter on which Loveland gets knocked back a bit and a Bama linebacker bites on the action where Corum is getting the ball on the other side of the POA. He's flying up the gut. This presents two players with difficult agility tests. One is Blake Corum, who is able to regap outside in a flash. This is a Full Blake Corum moment, and one that is wonderful to see after a regular season mostly spent fretting about why Corum wasn't 2022 Corum.

The second agility test, though, goes to Karsen Barnhart. The other angle is better for Barnhart's part in this play because it more clearly shows that he is able to clear the awkward Loveland block and get vertical, get to the safety. With Bredeson getting a +1 moving kickout when Barnhart gets there it's all over but the shouting. This space has been fairly critical of Barnhart over the past half-year but it's great to see him demonstrate his A+ skill on one of the most important snaps of the season.

Meanwhile…

Trente FTW. PFF has him ceding one pressure on 28 snaps; the entire line had an excellent day pass protecting except for Henderson, who got charged with five hurries and checked in with a blood-red grade. I'll have to see what I think about that in UFR, but one thing I can say now is that the expected onslaught of doom when Michigan got in passing downs never materialized. McCarthy was not sacked and was only hit on the double pass, IIRC.

PFF has Michigan ceding a 37% pressure rate, which isn't great against mortals but against these edges you'll take it all day. Also, there are pressures and there are Pressures. All of Bama's pressures were mere hurries save for one hit, which may have come on the double pass.

Ye gods. Michigan came into this game with a suite of new stuff and a couple of trick plays. One—the flea flicker where Corum didn't get it back to McCarthy—terminated a promising drive in a long field goal attempt. The other was a big chunk on Michigan's second TD drive but was exceptionally close to being a disaster:

Game manager pic.twitter.com/QPkK8LxOXx

— Scott Bell (@sbell021) January 1, 2024

Speaking of exceptionally close to disaster:

So many unforgettable plays in this Rose Bowl but this one was insane to me. It almost helped that it was tipped and floated to Roman who was soaring majestically through the air. ‍ pic.twitter.com/43PRrMvKmg

— Noah Neidlinger (@candor_for_sale) January 2, 2024

I saw that get tipped and was bracing for the back-breaking interception to follow. Instead the angle coincided with the ball slowing down just enough for Wilson to sky for it and grab it, while one of the Alabama defenders understandably takes himself out of the play by attempting to pick the ball off.

Michigan had a lot of unusual stuff go against them but also had those two crucial swing plays on events that were extremely close to game-over disasters.

The gameplan. Michigan was able to collect some wins against the Alabama pass defense by going after linebackers, as predicted, and using their shifts to swap Alabama assignments immediately presnap. This was a good high level summary:

What @UMichFootball did offensively was a very clear plan

1) Show one thing pre snap
2) Confuse with movement/motion/shift
3) Take advantage of Bama not adjusting@richeisen@AdamSchefter pic.twitter.com/JyyuYKg36u

— Dan Orlovsky (@danorlovsky7) January 2, 2024

I am now contractually obligated to mention that Dan Orlovsky ran out of the back of the endzone for a safety while he was playing QB for the Lions, but now I feel bad about mentioning it.

This felt like a game where Michigan had a month to prepare, integrating suites of plays not yet put on paper. The toss sequence for Edwards culminate in this, which could have been a bigger play if McCarthy had looked up Wilson:

This is a really cool design off Toss action pic.twitter.com/PyLrQadWkI

— Firstdown_XOs (@FirstdownX__Os) January 1, 2024

You can't say that Michigan didn't Gameplan this game in a way it didn't entirely feel like they did against Ohio State.

[Fuller]

On Corum's TD I thought to myself "I've seen that play on Twitter," because I had:

IYKYK

We've been talking about this all season!https://t.co/novepivD1Q

— Coach Dan Casey (@CoachDanCasey) January 1, 2024

The expectation that Edwards was the receiving tailback and that Corum was the running one was one Michigan exploited on Corum's two catches, both of which were key inflection points.

I did want McCarthy to run more. He had an early, successful sweep, a draw to set up a more manageable third down after the Bredeson penalty, and then the sixteen-yarder on the fourth-quarter TD drive. That latter was the only one that incorporated a threat headed elsewhere:

Michigan running Empty Bash QB GT Counter pic.twitter.com/tvvG5XKTR4

— Coach Dan Casey (@CoachDanCasey) January 2, 2024

What a block ID from Loveland, to expect man and get zone and get at the CB. It felt like Michigan could have used some McCarthy involvement earlier in the second half when their offense was doing nothing.

Our man is a fullback. None more fullback than this:

To approximately quote Max Bredeson coming out of the locker room:
"I'M FUCKIN PISSED OFF. WAAAGHHGUHGUSFDHGKLXFHGKLSFHD"
*smashes hands against helmet*

— Patrick Barron (@BlueBarronPhoto) January 1, 2024

Goals: list Max Bredeson an inch shorter on next year's roster.

Welp: they figured it out. Michigan took a shot with an Alex Orji pass but Alabama saw that one coming and Kalel Mullings did not pop wide open. Fine enough, but Orji then lost two yards instead of dumping the ball out of bounds and an iffy pass from McCarthy took his WR off his feet two yards short of the sticks on third down.

Cumong man. The officials didn't bite on the Bama punter leaving his kicking leg out for an unnaturally long time, nor did they throw a flag on a tackle on McCarthy out of bounds late. They seemed to be making a concerted effort not to throw flags, except this one:

Here’s the penalty on Bredeson for “unnecessary roughness”.
Weak

Watch 44 on the right. pic.twitter.com/5qAEAXar9h

— Due# (@JDue51) January 3, 2024

That's happening while the play is going on and is not the kind of forcible contact that Downs apparently even notices. I just don't think something like that should be flagged unless it is an egregious non-football act, a la Spencer Brown. This was Bredeson finishing a block.

DEFENSE

[Fuller]

The winner. Saban said the flare out of the backfield here was not an option; this was just straight QB power.

Alabama’s final play was an RPO

This ball should’ve gone to the swing pass to the RB

Bama had 2 blockers on the 2 DBs and the RB out leveraged the defender playing him man

But low snap forced Milroe to abort it and run himself pic.twitter.com/T84g9niTQ6

— Adam Breneman (@AdamBreneman81) January 2, 2024

The motion is enough to get Colson out of the box and then the low snap seems to panic Milroe into running straight ahead when the play wants to take him over the left side. It's unclear what happens if he does go off tackle. Michigan is blitzing Sainristil off the slot like they'd done much of the night; his angle is a bit too upfield for my taste. Meanwhile Rod Moore has pinched down and appears to be clear of the puller, able to fire upfield if Milroe does take it left. Those guys may be able to converge.

Stewart does thunk into Latham and make him give ground but that's a hinge block where Latham's done his job unnoticeably unless the QB goes straight ahead.

Alabama snap 1 [Barron]

Live and die in the backfield. Before the game I wanted Michigan to get after Jalen Milroe, who had giant splits between pressured passes and clean ones. Michigan did this, in spades, sacking Milroe six times even if you disregard the two bad snaps.

Michigan did let Milroe loose a couple of times on off-schedule plays, giving up a crucial first down on Bama's second-half TD drive and getting letoff on another drive when Milroe tried to change direction and slipped on the turf in a way that resembled a slide. That set up a fourth and three and a punt.

That damage was more than offset by the drives ruined by sacks and Milroe's inability to hit anything downfield. He had that one dime on the sideline to open Bama's late first-half field goal drive. He only attempted five other passes beyond ten yards, let alone twenty, completing one for 11 yards.

The crucial part of this is that a lot of Michigan's pressure was coming directly up the middle.

Another Milroe drop back.
Another Michigan sack.

That’s fun. pic.twitter.com/s5LUJQGUSr

— Due# (@JDue51) January 3, 2024

If Milroe was able to step up in the pocket and find a lane, as he did a few times, it was over. But when his first step has to be backwards or lateral, you have the advantage.

In the 1st Half, anytime Bama used Across Motion, the Wolverines blitzed the edge.

DC Jesse Minter did a good job changing up the entry points.

Here, the Ni is set to the field & inserts once the WR motions to his side.

The short stunt by the DE leads to a sack.#ArtofX | ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/L1CTU1f4tt

— Cody Alexander (@The_Coach_A) January 2, 2024

That's part of an excellent thread from Cody Alexander detailing Michigan's main strategic gambit in this game: Mike Sainristil blitzing off the slot.

Finally, in overtime, Michigan uses the Ni blitz to attack the Tide's Zone-Flat concept.

The movement by the D-line again gets a defender free to the RB.

Milroe had no option but to hand the ball off into a 'feed' movement by the Wolverines. #ArtofX | ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/MrAiI8lr7S

— Cody Alexander (@The_Coach_A) January 2, 2024

This was Michigan's call again on the final play. This was a Khaleke Hudson vs Minnesota gameplan, and while Bama didn't give up 8 TFLs to one guy the strategy was incredibly effective. Alabama scored 20 points in regulation with seven coming on a short field and six others on field goals of 50+ yards. Bama drove the field once.

Hail Minter. One measure of how effective Jesse Minter's gameplan was: PFF has Michigan for 19 pressures and 11 sacks and there's one guy with a pass rush grade better than 71: Kenneth Grant. I frequently talk about how it's hard to grade free safeties on good defenses because they never get tested; this was the DL equivalent of that, where most Michigan rushers barely register because there are five sacks from guys with a 0% win rate when blocked.

[Fuller]

Breaking it outside. One thing Bama did find in the second half: Michigan's edges were a bit soft, which allowed various running backs to bust contain and get good gains. I assume this was because of a focus on Milroe, particularly avoiding Milroe going straight upfield. Bama did manage to get Milroe north and south a couple times, most painfully on the second and fifteen in the redzone that Milroe turned into first and goal by running a Denard-vintage power read—or "inverted veer" for people who remember UFR lingo from 10 years ago.

Lockdown. Will Johnson was studiously avoided in this game, fielding only two targets in 33 snaps. The crucial one:

Will Johnson vs Jermaine Burton pic.twitter.com/DLqOXvdrdo

— NMD Grant (@NMDgrant) January 1, 2024

That plus the excellent Rod Moore PBU on a corner route were the last downfield attempts Bama tried, IIRC. Maybe there was one in the second half. At halftime coach twitter was talking about Bama going to more max pro in an attempt to get the ball downfield but that didn't really happen, probably because the two plays we're talking about may have convinced Bama that the relative upside of deep shots was low even if they were able to get them off.

Michigan did not try to match Johnson with Burton; they were content to play left and right—not even field and boundary—IIRC. I was constantly looking over at the Wallace-Burton matchups that I feared would result in something very bad happening and nothing actually did. Wallace got targeted four times, giving up a total of 17 yards on two catches. Eleven of those seventeen were on the third and goal from the fourteen in overtime where Michigan was probably happy to give up anything that resulted in fourth and more than two.

Wallace's season PFF grades are pretty nuts. In a billion snaps at UMass he was a very steady guy graded in the 68-70 range after his freshman season. This year he's at 86, his yards per reception allowed has gone from 17 to 10, and he's taken just one penalty this season. Sort P5 CBs by PFF grade and there's a stretch from #13 to #16 that goes Mike Sainristil, Will Johnson, Terrion Arnold, Josh Wallace.

I have no idea how this is going to hold up against Mike Penix but the dude played OSU, it's not like he was an obvious target in that game.

We mentioned the snaps. Bama was driving to open the third quarter after Michigan had failed to take advantage of a dominant first half. They'd reached midfield, they'd figured some things out at halftime, and then: snap goes snappity snap way wide and low and Milroe has to fall on the ball for a huge loss. Subsequent snap is also low; Milroe gets snowed under for a sack. Final play: a low snap may cause Milroe to go directly upfield into a mass of humanity instead of following his guard for what feels like 50/50 for a TD. This was an issue apparent whenever you watched Bama; the bad snap that set up the fourth and 31 against Auburn wasn't a fluke, it was baked into how this guy was performing all year.

The rotations shall continue. Rayshaun Benny went out early with an injury that looks like it'll hold him out of the national championship game. Cam Goode stepped up with 24 snaps. PFF didn't think a whole lot of those but it wasn't noticeable from the stands; it did not feel like the bit of the OSU game where Goode came on the field and OSU kept running tempo to lock him on there and ground down the field.

[Fuller]

Misses. In the preview I mentioned that Michigan had been charged with just 34 missed tackles this season. That number is up to 44 after Alabama forced approximately 3x the missed tackles as the average Michigan opponent had. The above was the most painful, as it's Sainristil filling after about 10-15 yards on the early Bama touchdown. Credit to Alabama for forcing those but this was another way in which it felt Michigan didn't necessarily bring their A-game.

Speaking of!

SPECIAL TEAMS

[Fuller]

Hoooooo boy. For most of the second half I was comprising narratives in my head about how Michigan's special teams lost this game. (And, to a lesser extent, how Bama's won it.) A complete accounting of the swing here:

• Semaj Morgan muffs a punt, setting up Bama with a short field on their first-half TD drive.
• Michigan botches an extra point.
• James Turner misses a 48-yard field goal.
• Will Reichard makes two field goals from 50+.
• Michigan loses about 10 yards on every exchange of punts.

The cherry on top was Jake Thaw—the guy who held the punt return most of the year because he was the "safe" option—fielding a Bama punt at the five, muffing it, getting it back at the one, and managing to hold onto the ball despite getting destroyed. That was ultimately inconsequential but Bama winning because of that would have… never mind. It is unthinkable. "Trouble with the snap" times a billion.

What do you do with that? I don't know. Michigan has had incredible special teams for years and even though this was sort of an off year they were still 18th in FEI and 4th in SP+ headed into this one. The risk-reward on putting Morgan back there paid off against Iowa but not here, and honestly I wanted Morgan to grab that on the fly before the muff. This looks like a situation where Morgan is fairly likely to bust a big one:

He's moving, one gunner is definitively blocked and Morgan could cut back behind the other guy.

After the muff, Morgan was very hesitant to go get balls and had a cripping third-down drop on a play that would have been a first down and possibly a fair chunk more. These are the risks when you put a bunch of your gameplan on a freshman.

The punt return situation has been iffy this year; other than that I think they just ran into the best specialists in America and got a bit of an off game from the punter.

MISCELLANEOUS

The brand is strong. We laminate things.

@mgoblog @Misopogon @Alex_Drain I printed out and laminated the FFFF chart and brought it to the Rose Bowl. Thanks for all of your hard work making sports more fun and accessible pic.twitter.com/jfZrVHy344

— William Yang (@willyilly15) January 2, 2024

Early championship game numbers. FEI has Michigan 32-24 (and 33-24 if you drop the bowls out). Bill Connelly hasn't made such an adjustment to SP+, which shot Georgia to #1 after they dismantled the husk of Florida State. That's not that relevant for the SP+ assertion about the title game, in which Michigan would be a 13.5 point favorite(!). Washington is #12 in SP+ after a back half of the season filled with scuffles. Their defense ranks 44th, so this game is going to be a stellar test for our assertions that the Big Ten West has destroyed SP+'s ability to rank Big Ten defenses accurately.

Something a little extra special about that overtime was that it happened in front of the Michigan student and band section. Rose Bowl doesn’t pipe in much music, it’s mostly the band. Just pure, traditional, chaotic college football.

— Patrick Barron (@BlueBarronPhoto) January 2, 2024

I'm just sayin'. There is no piped in music at the Rose Bowl, and nobody stomped out of there angry they hadn't heard any Fall Out Boy. It was nice to be able to talk to people in the interminable commercial breaks, and when there is not piped in music you hear the organic rustle of the crowd much more clearly. I'd like Michigan to dump the Penn State-esque carnival barking. This is never going to happen but I will bring it up when I go to a game that doesn't spend the whole downtime trying to distract you from the guy on the field with the red hat.

HERE

A story from the game:

As we are waiting to watch the trophy presentation, Elinor's one comment, speaking of the players up on the podium, is, "Those guys must stink!" drawing on her own experiences in roller derby.  I told her they probably do, but also probably don't give a damn about it.

War Dad content:

As the Korean People’s Army poured into South Korea in the summer of 1950, the US Army that opposed them was the best in the world…on paper. But success in war, like in football, can often be a fickle mistress to predict. It is a game of inches, where unpredictable events occur with stunning regularity and even the greatest superforecasters in the world can never guarantee victory.  

As the Second World War drew to a close, the United States found itself in the position of global hegemon for the first time. The Allies had together forever crushed Germany’s decades long dreams of expansion and Imperial Japan’s rapid rise to regional dominance. But the efforts had destroyed the old orders and replaced them with new powers. The United States in 1945 fielded one of the best fighting forces the world has ever seen.

Not just technically and strategically dominant, the United States stood alone in the world with their logistical networks and capabilities that were every bit as contemporarily dominant to Rome’s. If all roads led to Imperial Rome, all logistics in the middle of the 20th Century led to the United States. The US had perfected logistics and they had perfected combined arms tactics on the battlefield, and stood as masters of the world and yet in June of 1950 the army of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), which had not even existed five years earlier, rolled through them like they were not even present. 

As the North Koreans crossed the border, the South Korean army began to disintegrate. The United States determined to not let their new protectorate fall, sent what everyone thought was the successor to the greatest all around army the world had ever see to deal with these backwater upstarts.

Commander of the Far East Theatre Douglas MacArthur demanded an “arrogant display of strength”.. it was a disaster.

More on the computers. Goodbye, Iowatch! A guy goes, alone, but not alone.

3:03 AM:

But let's be honest for a minute - Corporate America is getting nothing out of me tomorrow and that's gonna need to be OK, especially on a January 2nd when most people are just trying to remember their name and what they do for a living. Sorry corporate America. (Ok - I'm totally NOT sorry - but read this anyway...)

I was raised on Michigan Football. The first game my dad ever took me to was the infamous Wangler to Carter TD game against Indiana. I spent my Jr. High and High School years in Ann Arbor on Saturdays. It was just what I grew up on. Maize and Blue crack cocaine. There's worse things, I suppose.

My dad was a quiet fan. Loved it. You really never got to see it. But it was there....and I think he'd admit that it was covered up by some corporate BS - he had to work. It was just what he did. You never really 100% knew what he was thinking. It was just how he was. That's fine.

A Fitting End:

Michigan vs. Washington.

This one's special to me.  I mean, it's special for all of us (except the ones bizarrely obsessed with media takes -- FFS enjoy this one a little), and definitely because of all the crap heaped on Michigan last year.  But for me, it's also because I grew up in the PacNW before moving to Michigan for college.  I'm a Wolverine, but my blood is a mixture of sap from Douglas fir and ponderosa pine.  (Hey, no one's perfect.)

 

ELSEWHERE

Here is what pure joy looks like when filtered through a Sklar:

Randy’s face when he finally got out of the Rose Bowl parking lot. Greatest sporting event we’ve ever attended. So proud of this team and our school. It’s great to be a MICHIGAN WOLVERINE!! pic.twitter.com/HiMLTEgcte

— The Sklar Brothers (@SklarBrothers) January 2, 2024

Here's a thread of Michigan fans reacting to the final play.

And we're going light on the schadenfreude this time because Alabama didn't try to spin Connor Stalions into the Worst Scandal In History but this is a truly incredible reaction tiktok:

By far my favorite I’ve seen so far. Cinematography is on point. Sound on. pic.twitter.com/AP8DAQjgPQ

— All Blue (@allbluedotfans) January 2, 2024

Andrew Kahn from the sideline:

Cole Morgan, a freshman lineman, bounces near a bench. He’s beyond hyped; he’s possessed. He locks eyes with this reporter in what can only be described as a momentary spiritual experience.

Michigan’s defense gets a stop and forces a punt, but the punt has been one of Alabama’s better plays in this game. Jake Thaw muffs it, picks it up at his own 1, and gets tackled into the end zone. His teammates on the field and on the bench try to convince themselves it’s not a safety. The referees agree.

As the final minute of the fourth quarter ticks away, a trainer applies a massage gun to edge Jaylen Harrell’s calves. Linebacker Junior Colson implores his teammates: “Eyes. Eyes. It’s all QB runs.” A teammate replies: “And he’s got no moves.”

Overtime. The Wolverines hold up five fingers. This is what they’ve been training for since last January. “No matter how long it’s going to take, we keep working,” strength coach Ben Herbert would say later. “Overtime, we looked at each other and said, ‘It’s our time. Let’s finish this.’”

Service with a smile from Bruce Feldman:

Yes: https://t.co/8RkhTVA6Zo

— Bruce Feldman (@BruceFeldmanCFB) January 2, 2024

One of the Big Ten coaches The Athletic spoke to for the scouting report on the Wolverines conceded on Tuesday morning that he was wrong about what he thought would happen, and he agreed with the notion that a lot of people overrated Alabama and underestimated Michigan. “Bama’s O-line’s inexperience definitely showed,” the coach said. “J.J. continued to do what he did best — make things happen when nothing is there. The throws he makes on the run or when plays break down are crazy. Shocked Bama had such a bad bust on fourth-and-2.”

Bill Connelly accurately sums up my feelings about the first half:

I was getting severe Ohio State-Clemson vibes. In the Fiesta Bowl in the 2019 College Football Playoff, Justin Fields and Ohio State owned Trevor Lawrence and Clemson for the first 25 minutes or so, scoring four times and forcing four straight punts. The Buckeyes were an incredible team that year, and they were proving it ... except they kept settling for field goals. Those four scores generated only 16 points, and when Clemson finally got going with two straight touchdowns late in the first half, the halftime score was just 16-14 Buckeyes. Two Travis Etienne touchdowns, a controversial replay call and a late interception were enough to flip the game and send the Tigers to the national championship with a 29-23 win. Ohio State gained 99 more yards and had seven more first downs but went home.

Twenty-six minutes into Monday's Rose Bowl, Michigan had gained 199 yards to Alabama's 39. The Wolverines had sacked Alabama's Jalen Milroe four times in six pass attempts. This was a one-sided affair, but Michigan led just 13-7.

Various players brought receipts. Derrick Moore:

let all naysayers know‍♂️ https://t.co/CfOI4md9GV

— Derrick Moore (@Big8DMoore) January 2, 2024

Moore is referencing this exchange on Gameday, FWIW:

@espn Let a naysayer know! #collegefootball #football #alabamafootball ♬ original sound - ESPN

Also in These Guys Are Very Online:

Roman Wilson on TikTok pic.twitter.com/97xqmzgf7G

— Nick Baumgardner (@nickbaumgardner) January 2, 2024

Very online indeed:

pic.twitter.com/rJQpuixHex

— Isaiah Hole (@isaiahhole) January 2, 2024

The elder Barrett:

Everyone that wants to go ahead and apologize to our coaches and players for stealing signs when all we stole was souls I have receipts and not scared to use them

— Michael Barrett Sr. (@lilmike70) January 2, 2024