jj mccarthy

Tonight the football world turns its attention to downtown Detroit and the 2024 NFL Draft. Over the years of the Jim Harbaugh era we've grown accustomed to Michigan to having quite a few players drafted, but the next three days has the opportunity to be historic. Harbaugh himself was talking up the possibility of Michigan setting NFL Draft records in 2024 last summer and now with only a few hours to Draft Day, it remains plausible. Georgia's 2022 draft remains the record, with 15 players taken off the Bulldogs' national title winning roster. Can Michigan tie, or exceed 15? Today we'll go through each player, their chances of getting drafted, and what NFL Draft scouts are saying about the heroes from Team 144: 

Certain to be drafted (7)

JJ McCarthy

Consensus Big Board ranking: 23 

Likely Draft Day: Thursday  

What scouts are saying: In all likelihood, the first Wolverine off the board will be the QB, JJ McCarthy. Where exactly he goes is up in the air, as it could be as high as #2 (theoretically) and could be somewhere in the teens. The consensus of scouts seems to be more bearish on McCarthy when it comes to actually ranking him, as the consensus big board puts him 23rd, but the sense is that because QB is a premium position, JJ will go higher than that in the actual draft. 

Scouts seem to like McCarthy's athleticism, intangibles/leadership, and arm talent (velocity and accuracy). His winning ways in both high school and college, in addition to his raw tools and mobility as a passer are certainly tantalizing. However, McCarthy's reads and decision-making are seen as areas for uncertainty. The low volume of throws that JJ has made over his Michigan career relative to some of the other top quarterbacks are another example of that uncertainty, a bit more of a mystery component than other QBs posses. Some suggest that it may be best for JJ to sit a year behind an experienced QB, while he continues to develop as a QB reading through his progressions. We shall see whether whichever team inevitably drafts McCarthy in the first round has that plan in mind. 

Kris Jenkins

Consensus Big Board ranking: 49

Likely Draft Day: Friday

What scouts are saying: Jenkins has been on NFL Draft radars for several years now and he seems likely to follow Mazi Smith's path into the league. Smith was drafted 26th in last year's draft, a bit higher than anticipated, but Jenkins' profile and projected ranking is in a similar ballpark. Good, and among the best DTs in the class, but perhaps not an elite stud a la Byron Murphy II or Jer'Zhan "Johnny" Newton. Jenkins generally falls in that second tier of tackles after Murphy and Newton, alongside Ohio State's Michael Hall Jr. and Florida State's (formerly WMU's) Braden Fiske.  

Jenkins' profile is a bit of an unsexy one to a lot of scouts, but with some safe projection. Like most Michigan players, he's lauded for his work ethic and intangibles, the sort of guy NFL teams want to draft. His run defense generally gets favorable reviews from scouts and he graded out very well athletically at the NFL combine. There's also more safety in Kris Jenkins' NFL pedigree through his father, even though the two are built rather differently. Jenkins' counting stat production and general pass rush is what grades out a bit more negatively to scouts, wondering if he has that explosive, home run upside. Still, for teams looking to beef up the D-Line with a safe run stopper who may still have upside to explore (remember Jenkins' body transformation at Michigan), Jenkins is a solid bet and I'd expect him to go in the 2nd round on Friday night. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: all the other guys]

Defensive coaches announced; Hart outgoing. Michigan has finally finished asking every one of their new defensive hires if they have ever run a vacuum refurbishment company with many negative reviews and officially announced them:

Moore's first staff is led by Don "Wink" Martindale, U-M's Matt and Nicole Lester Family Defensive Coordinator, who brings 19 years of NFL coaching experience to the program. Martindale was the architect of the defensive scheme that Michigan has run for the past three seasons and will continue to utilize as the framework for its 2024 unit.

The staff includes defensive line coach Greg Scruggs, linebackers coach/run game coordinator Brian Jean-Mary and defensive backs coach/pass game coordinator LaMar Morgan. The Wolverines have also added former defensive back Brad Hawkins as a graduate assistant coach.

There has been some chatter online about how Martindale didn't quite run the Ravens Defense as Michigan fans understand it via the lens of Mike Macdonald and Jesse Minter—he was much more blitz heavy and ran more man defense—so the explicit statement that Martindale is here to change nothing is interesting. Reassuring? I don't know.

Also in "change nothing, do the same thing," LaMar Morgan is here largely on the recommendation of one guy:

"LaMar is someone that I have enjoyed getting to know through this process. He came highly recommended by Jesse Minter and I saw why he is respected as an top notch defensive backs coach during our conversations. He is an excellent teacher and communicator, and his passion for football and for helping young men achieve their goals showed through in his interview. I am excited to have LaMar mentoring our defensive secondary and coordinating the passing game."

Minter-recommended G5 DC becoming secondary coach: okay.

Unfortunately, Angelique Chengelis is reporting that Mike Hart will not return as a running backs coach next year. Hart does not have an instant landing spot elsewhere, and it's well past the usual coaching carousel, so it seems like this was a decision from Moore. There had been rumors about a lot of conflict between Harbaugh and Hart… but there are rumors about conflict between Harbaugh and everyone. 

[After THE JUMP: squeeze the money tree until it withers]

FORMATION NOTES: In general Bama was so multiple that I had a hard time deciphering whether something was a 4-3 with a standup end or a 3-4 with a SAM; they would go with a 5-1, they would shift constantly. Surely the thickest playbooks in college football went head to head in this game.

I called this weird thing 30 nickel slide SAM:

You've got your line shifted to the run strength, you've got a standup end in a SAM spot, and you've got your LBs shifted to run strength. This is Bama's "please run at Justin Eboigbe" formation.

SUBSTITUTION NOTES: Johnson, Wilson, Barner, and Loveland all got at least two-thirds of Michigan's snaps. Corum wasn't far behind. Morris, Edwards, Morgan, and Bredeson had 10-20; Mullings and Orji had cameos.

[After the JUMP: retired that so and so]