Jimmystats: July 2019 Recruiting Deltas

Jimmystats: July 2019 Recruiting Deltas

Submitted by Seth on July 13th, 2018 at 11:17 AM

Let's stare at stars [Patrick Barron]

Starting last year I began keeping track on the changes in recruiting rankings, since movement tends to tell us things about a recruit that their ratings at any given moment do not.

I was putting this together a month ago actually, but then half of the high schoolers in America committed to Michigan and this post was left in the bin. Since we have a bunch of new recruits and 247 just updated their rankings yesterday based on their scouting from various summer camps, it's a good time to check in. Anyway that's why there's the weirdness of June 15 rankings on everybody committed by then—I figured you'd prefer I leave those in.

Things to keep in mind:

  1. Recruiting gravity means rankings will slowly drop as more players are scouted and slotted ahead of them. Going from the #209 to #225 player in a month isn't a drop unless his rating dropped too.
  2. I didn't get around to taking snapshots of Rivals and ESPN in late May, and only got the new commits' data when they dropped. As this series continues we'll have more complete data.
  3. By now I imagine you're familiar with the three sites' rating systems but just in case: For 247 the 80-89 range are 3-stars, the 90-97 range are the 4-stars, and 98+ are 5-stars. ESPN is on a 100 scale, so 70s are 3-stars, 80s are 4-stars, 90s are 5-stars. Rivals uses the old National Recruiting Advisor system: 5.5 to 5.7 are 3-stars, 5.8 to 6.0 are 4-stars, and 6.1 is a 5-star. The 247 composite can be read like you put a "%" next to their regular ratings, so .9000 is the cut-off for a 4-star instead of 90.

QB Cade McNamara

Service March 17 (committed) June 15 Today
247Sports 90, #305 Ovr, #9 PRO 90, #310 Ovr, #10 PRO 90, #321 Ovr, #10 PRO
Rivals 5.8, NR, #9 Pro 5.8, NR, #9 Pro 5.8, NR, #10 Pro
ESPN 78, #296 Ovr, #8 Pro, #45 West 78, #296 Ovr, #8 PRO, #45 West 81, #240 Ovr, #14 Pro, #36 West
Composite 0.9004, #316 Ovr, #9 PRO 0.9067, #263 Ovr, #10 PRO 0.9067, #269 Ovr, #10 PRO

Michigan's (first?) quarterback of the class is climbing steadily, and got bumped to a strong 4-star when ESPN solidified their Top 300, which means he survived a bunch of other recently scouted quarterbacks moving up. On the other hand they slid a good six other quarterbacks ahead of him, including BC-bound Sam Johnson from Walled Lake Western.

McNamara's been participating in whatever the new format of the Elite 11 is, and his performance so far has crystallized the opinion of him as a four-star but still just outside everyone's Top 250.

His reported weight is up too. He's now 206 (247) or 202 (Rivals) or 203 (ESPN) lbs, up from 179.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the class]

Friday Recruitin' Flings Arms From Body To Demonstrate Athletic Prowess

Friday Recruitin' Flings Arms From Body To Demonstrate Athletic Prowess

Submitted by Brian on May 18th, 2018 at 12:15 PM

Next commit is fairly obvious

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wingspaaaaaaan

GA CB DJ Turner has fielded a number of Michigan crystal balls in recent days, and since he's also set a commit date of June 25th those have extra oomph. Turner is a 3.5 star sort who has some big name schools after him—he recently visited ND and scheduled a trip to Florida this weekend.  He was more of a 4 star sort until recently, when a 247 composite update dropped him from #280 to #435.

If Turner does end up committing—and it's not entirely clear if there's serious competition—that would probably signal the end of CB recruiting. Michigan flipped FL CB Te'Cory Couch from Tennessee a few weeks back and took five defensive backs last year.

Potential committed risers

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Two commits have put in impressive camp performances and may be in for a rankings rise. MI OL Karsen Barnhart drew mention as a top performer at two recent regional shoe-sponsored camps. Wiltfong at the local Opening regional:

…won the majority of his reps in 1-on-1s, a wide body that moved well, could match power with power and also had the quickness to take on outside pass rushers.

And Trieu in Chicago for a UA camp:

…yet another good performance here. He can bend and move his feet. He is still learning technical aspects of pass pro but right now his competitiveness and athleticism allows him to win.

Per Webb, Barnhart plays in a wing-T in high school so the technical aspects of pass protection are not exactly emphasized. Barnhart reports that Michigan sees him as a tackle and, early, as a bonus TE a la Spanellis last year. Video here for 24/7 subscribers.

Only 24/7 reported from either of these camps so don't expect big rankings fireworks across the now three sites that rate folks. I'd imagine he moves into the four star range there; he's currently just outside it at #381.

Since he is a quarterback and will be at the Opening, NV QB Cade McNamara has a better shot at significant moves up *cough* industry-wide. Brandon Huffman had him the top offensive player at the Vegas Opening regional:

 …was ripping the ball through windy conditions early on in the camp and threw with a lot of poise and confidence throughout. He was accurate, threw with touch and showed off the quickest release in the camp. McNamara was the lone signal caller invited to the Elite 11 Finals next month in Southern California.

Rivals did not attend the camp but Adam Ghabour caught up with McNamara afterward:  

“I feel like my release is so different, and something that no one else has,” McNamara said. “I don’t really know if there was something special [about my performance]. I just went out and did what had to be done. I felt like I was very accurate. I had a lot of zip on my ball, and I was able to control my ball really well when it came to one on ones, and I put the ball in the right place.”

McNamara is already a composite four star in the top 300 so he'll have more resistance in front of him if he wants to move up; the Opening will be a good oportunity to do so.

Defensive ends solid?

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wingspaaaa- aw cumong man

Michigan got two high-profile early commitments from defensive ends, one of which people had written off as KY DE Stephen Herron supposedly made googly eyes with Stanford. If that was the case at one time it is apparently no longer so, per Josh Newkirk:

“It’s pretty strong,” he said of his Michigan commitment. “A lot of schools like Stanford push pretty hard. My best friend went to Purdue, they push pretty hard. … But other than that, I try to stay really committed to my commitment. I got a year left. But I’m not looking right now.”

Herron says he has no intentions on visiting other programs either.

“It’s not planned,” he said.

"Commit is committed" is usually not that newsworthy, but this is a bit different. A majority of Herron's crystal balls, including ours, are still Stanford flip picks, and OH DE Gabe Newburg's commit was widely interpreted as something Herron-related. Apparently not?

Meanwhile, GA DE Chris Hinton has not given anyone a reason to think he's wavering in his commitment but Georgia's Rivals site checked in anyway. Verdict: waste of time.

Athough Hinton has been firmly committed for a long time, it hasn't stopped the pursuit of several schools.

"I have not visited anywhere else since I committed. I’m pretty solid on that," Hinton said on his Michigan commitment. "Georgia for sure. Stanford and Clemson. That is really the big three still coming at me hard."

At the end of the article Hinton does admit that if "something crazy" happened he'd look around, as one does when someone asks you a bunch of questions and won't stop until he gets something approximating a "correct" answer.

Still in search of DEs though

Even with Herron apparently solid to give Michigan a three-DE class there are some more guys being heavily pursued.

NJ DE Aeneas DiCosmo has Michigan in his top five and is coming up on a decision. Since that top five is Stanford, M, Notre Dame, Northwestern, and… uh… Clemson, it's clear that academics are meaningful for DiCosmo, and that often means fist-shaking in Stanford's direction.

That may be the case here too, as Brian Dohn asserts that this weekend's trip to The Very Inaccurately Named Farm is "huge" because several people have told me it is "a dream offer." DiCosmo has visits to ND and Michigan set up for mid-June, with Michigan batting cleanup. It kind of sounds like Michigan would do well to just get to that visit without a Stanford commit happening. A bunch of crystal balls for Stanford have already come in.

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close enough! wingspaaaaaan

KS DE Marcus Hicks has Michigan in his top two with Oklahoma…

After taking … trips Hicks will be ready to trim his list of suitors down to a more manageable five. For now, though, he can only name two that will definitely make the cut.

Said Hicks, “I think Oklahoma and Michigan would be in there.”

…and 13 OU predictions on the crystal ball. Michigan's best bet is that this is one of those recruitments. The Oklahoma 24/7 site:

They do feel confident in Hicks, but they are getting frustrated that he has not pulled the trigger and they are recruiting other DE and DT.

Hicks told Sam Webb that he would be taking his recruitment into the fall, so could be one of those things where the school is all like "you gonna commit" and the recruit is like "in a bit" and the school is like "we will now court these other large angry people" and the recruit is like "I take offense!" and then everything falls apart not like this has happened to Michigan ever.

Another point in Michigan's favor as they try to make up the gap: Hicks is taking the ol' road game unofficial as Michigan plays ND in the opener.

Etc.

CA LB Tristan Sinclair is a guy to keep on the radar as a potential VIPER(!); no offer yet.

Hello: Karsen Barnhart

Hello: Karsen Barnhart

Submitted by Ace on April 30th, 2018 at 3:43 PM

Recruiting doesn't stop even when the team is in France. Three-star Paw Paw (Michigan) offensive lineman Karsen Barnhart announced his commitment to the home-state Wolverines and included a picture of Jim Harbaugh's reaction from Paris:

Barnhart chose Michigan over fellow finalists Michigan State and Indiana, and he also held notable Big Ten offers from Iowa, Minnesota, and Nebraska. He is the tenth commit in the 2019 class and the fourth along the offensive line, joining Nolan Rumler, Trente Jones, and Jack Stewart.

GURU RATINGS

Rivals ESPN 247 247 Comp
3*, 5.7, #44 OT 3*, 79, #36 OT 3*, 89, #41 OT,
#379 Ovr
3*, #39 OT,
#421 Ovr

So close.

Anyway, Barnhart isn't far off four-star status despite being from noted football hotbed Paw Paw. Rivals has handed out four stars to their top 31 OTs, and Barnhart sits directly behind commits to TCU, (pulls out bullhorn for commenters) Ohio State, and Florida in their position rankings. He's the very top three-star OT on ESPN. 247 has just four three-stars ahead of him in their position rankings; he's actually two spots ahead of fellow M commit Trente Jones there, though that may not last long after Jones had a big-time performance at the Under Armour Atlanta camp.

Add it all up and Barnhart is only five position spots off the four-star pace in the composite rankings, surrounded by prospects headed to likes of Florida, Washington, South Carolina, and LSU. Am I emphasizing this in a probably fruitless attempt to head off the three-star mafia? Perhaps.

Barnhart has excellent size for a rising senior at 6'4", 282 pounds. While he doesn't have ideal blindside protector length, he could fit on the interior or tackle depending on need and development.

[Hit THE JUMP for scouting, video, and the rest.]

Friday Recruitin' Evidently Doesn't Need A Spring Game

Friday Recruitin' Evidently Doesn't Need A Spring Game

Submitted by Ace on April 13th, 2018 at 3:14 PM

Big-Time Visit Weekend Remains Big-Time Visit Weekend

Frankly, I wasn't expecting to write this post today once Michigan cancelled its spring game, but the recruiting process cares not for spring weather, and the coaches have ensured this is still a major visit weekend.

TMI's Sam Webb has a comprehensive, free rundown of this weekend's visitors. I'll hit on the highlights, including all of the official visitors—remember, this is the first year since the rule change that allows OVs in the spring.

The headliner is five-star OH DE Zach Harrison, who will spend Saturday on campus before heading home Sunday, per 247's Bill Kurelic. This will be an unofficial visit for Harrison, whose recruitment is shaping up to be a Midwest battle with Ohio State currently holding all 12 of his crystal ball picks. Michigan and Penn State are chasing the Buckeyes. The Wolverine's Brandon Brown is hearing Michigan is at least making things interesting:

"It was a two-horse race for a while with Ohio State and Penn State but Michigan has probably made it a three-horse race in recent weeks," a source close to the situation said. "I don't think anyone else has a realistic shot, though he'll still list Clemson and Notre Dame."

This weekend's visit will be important for making up ground on the Buckeyes, who are still the presumed favorite.

While this isn't setting up to be a carpal tunnel weekend, Sam has sounded a potential commitment watch—albeit without a gut feeling—for four-star FL CB Te'Cory Couch, a very soft Tennessee commit who's expected to wind up at either Michigan or Miami (YTM). He told 247's Andrew Ivins those two schools are the ones he's most focused on, and he's certainly hearing the right things from the Wolverine coaches:

"I just want to see what it's like there how the players live and stuff like that," he said when asked about the Wolverines. "I just want to see what they do on a day-to-day basis and the education. I'm talking a lot with [defensive coordinator Don Brown]. He loves me. He tells me that I'm the No. 1 corner on his board all the time."

A decision could come soon. While Sam didn't issue that gut feeling, he put in a Crystal Ball pick for Michigan, which is pretty close.

[Hit THE JUMP for more on weekend visitors.]