Upon Further Review: Shea Patterson vs Alabama

Upon Further Review: Shea Patterson vs Alabama

Submitted by Brian on May 10th, 2018 at 1:15 PM

37907506721_576725da5c_z

[Bryan Fuller]

CONTEXT NOTES: This went a little less well than the Vandy game. It was a blowout from the drop and finished 66-3. FWIW, Bama was the #5 pass defense last year and was #29 in adjusted sack rate. Neither of those numbers do this outing justice.

OLE MISS OFFENSE NOTES: lol nope

Oh, there is one thing of note: Ole Miss ran a lot of max pro even on things like all slants, so if those were covered Patterson did not have checkdown options. Also some of their plays didn't look like passing concepts so much as presnap read sorts of plays where you've got a screen on one side but can decide to hand off or take a shot at a downfield fade. On these plays Patterson was locked into one guy in a route if he chose the fade, even if that fade got wrecked by a DB.

As a result of these two tendencies, Patterson ended up throwing into tight coverage a ton. Only rarely was this a bad decision; most of the time he either literally had no choice or the guy he was throwing at was the least bad option.

Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Box Type Play Player Yards
M13 2 9 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Pass TE flare screen Knox 5
I have nothing QB related to say about this. (CA, 3, screen)
M18 3 4 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 6 Pass Fade Metcalf Inc
Everyone jammed into the boundary again as Miss wants that space for their solo WR. Fake flare screen, fake handoff, none of this impacts the decision here to go solo backside. Presnap read with the flare option? I don’t know. Post-snap result is that there's one guy in a route and Patterson has to throw it. Metcalf gets destroyed by the CB and Patterson’s accurate-seeming fade ends up yards too long because of the CB jam. (not charted, 0, protection 1/1)
M15 2 8 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 3-4 7 Pass Throwaway N/A Inc
7 man slide protection as OM tries to go deep; slightly delayed blitz gets through clean and Patterson has to bug out before it seems like any of his routes develop. He tosses it away as he gets to the sideline. (PR, N/A, protection 0/2)
M15 3 8 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 3-2 Dime split 5 Pass Comeback Metcalf Inc
Time for one quick read and then RT gets run over so another bug out. Patterson finds Metcalf for a first down but Metcalf leaps to catch a ball that hits him in the chest and doesn’t get a foot down on a sideline catch he should really make. (CA+, 2, protection ½)
M24 1 10 Shotgun empty 1 0 4 Dime even 4 Run QB draw Patterson 6
Draw ends up wide open as the closest thing to a LB in the box here is a safety at ten yards. Patterson again slides down before contact when he could probably get the first down here if he’s more aggressive. RPS +1.
M30 2 4 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 6 Pass Fade Lodge Inc
LB shows blitz and comes, getting through untouched up the gut. Patterson chucks up a fade in response. That fade is too far inside but the DB is focused on the WR and the ball hits the turf harmlessly. PR? IN? MA? I punt. (MA, 0, protection 0/2)
M30 3 4 Shotgun 4-wide 1 0 4 Nickel over 6 Pass Slant Lodge INT
Multiple issues here as Patterson doesn’t see that his slot WR is much more open here than the outside guy, Lodge. Lodge then gets beat up on the route by the CB a bit and Patterson wings the pass a yard wide. CB deflects and then INTs; Lodge thinks it’s incomplete and stops, TD results. (BR, 0, protection 1/1)
M33 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 ? 7 Pass Skinny post Metcalf 17
Miss part of this play, come back with PA fake and Patterson setting up. Metcalf breaks inside of the DB and runs a skinny post; Patterson throws a lovely soft toss directly to his hands that arcs over the DB for a chunk. (DO, 3, protection 2/2)
O45 2 5 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 3-4 7 Pass Stop and go Lodge Inc
Delayed release from Lodge; he gets inside of the CB and jets past him. S to this side busts, probably because of the delayed release, and Patterson has a wide open guy for a 45 yard TD… who he misses. (IN, 0, protection 2/2)
O45 3 5 Shotgun empty 1 0 4 Okie one 7 Pass Sack N/A 0
Another untouched rusher up the gut. (PR, N/A, protection 0/2)
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Box Type Play Player Yards
M25 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 6 Pass Hitch Metcalf 25
Quick hitch turns into a big gain because of a missed tackle. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
50 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 4-3 under 7 Pass Improv Lodge 35
Orbit motion for Brown from the slot discombobulates Bama D, with the FS running to cover Brown on a flare route. Nobody replaces him. Patterson has time to see that and hit the should-be-open post route but hesitates, and then an unblocked edge rusher has him in his sights. Patterson breaks the pocket and finds a receiver for a deep gain… the same guy he should have thrown it to in the first place. (CA+, 3, protection ½, RPS +2)
O15 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Pass Circle Brown 6
Another dink throw that the WR turns into something. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
O9 2 4 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 3-3 stack 7 Pass Slant Jefferson Inc
Similar to the INT except Brown is very not open and the throw is on target. CB wins route and gets a PBU. Nobody is open so this was the best option despite the low probability of success. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
O14 2 9 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel under 6 Pass Stop and go RB -5
RB out of the backfield, flare screen pump fake and then Patterson wants to hit the one dude in a route over the top. He’s blanketed. Patterson throws the flare screen now, way too late for anything but doom. (CA, 3, screen, RPS -3)
O9 3 14 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Nickel even 6 Pass Dig Jefferson 10
Solid protection for a while until a big guy gets through on a stunt; Patterson can still hang in the pocket and step into a dart across the middle for Jefferson, who is a few yards short. Down 21-0, OM kicks a field goal. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)
M25 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Run QB arc keeper Patterson 6
Edge is open as the playside DE sucks inside too far. LB does a good job to beat a block and scrape out to help cut it down. Patterson’s part in this is to run reasonably fast and get cut down by the LB from behind. RPS +1.
M32 2 3 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 4-3 under 7 Pass Slant Lodge Inc (Pen)
Patterson again gets an unblocked edge rusher; he stands in and fires an accurate ball to Lodge, who has the CB draped all over him. Dude gets a fairly iffy PI, but the throw was the only place it could be and was made with a dude bearing down on Patterson. (CA, 1, protection 0/2)
M42 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Pass Throwaway N/A Inc
Seven man protection against a four man rush; one very covered short route and two deep guys who looks bracketed. Patterson should probably LIVE MAS at this point down 28-3 and take a shot but it’s more prudent to bail out when the pressure comes, which is way too early, and then throw it away. (TA, 0, protection ½
O39 2 6 Shotgun 4-wide 1 1 3 Base 3-4 6 Pass Fade Metcalf Inc
Another completely unblocked guy off the edge as nobody bothers to block the backside DE on a PA. Ole Miss is again using this fake screen action that Bama isn’t falling for and they absolutely do not have the blocking for so there’s again one guy in a realistic route, the backside fade dude. CB is over the top of this and the ball is way long and OOB. (PR, N/A, protection 0/2)
O39 3 6 Shotgun trips 1 1 3 Nickel under 6 Pass Sack N/A -7
This time two guys come scot free as OM tries to set up a screen and Bama engulfs the back in the backfield. Nowhere to go but down. (PR, N/A, protection 0/2, RPS -2)
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Box Type Play Player Yards
M13 1 20 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 6 Pass Sack N/A -2
Not as bad as some other pressure events as pocket mostly holds, but Patterson has happy feet by now. He tries to run up in the pocket and gets tripped up by his own man, who got driven back in the pocket. (TA, 0, protection ½)
M11 2 22 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 4-3 under 7 Pass Sack N/A -1
PA, trying to go deep, DT gets around his man to flush Patterson. A second guy is coming from the outside so Patterson can’t step and fire; a third contains and #2 sacks. Patterson’s got the ball out like the proverbial loaf of bread(?) and fumbles(-3). (PR, N/A, protection 0/2)
M12 3 21 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 3-2 dime 5.5 Pass Flare screen RB 3
Meh (CA, 3, screen)
M37 1 10 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 3-3 stack 6 Pass Flare RB 4
More jogging off the line by the OM WRs; free rusher and Patterson just dumps it to the RB for a few. (CA, 3, protection 0/2)
M41 2 6 Shotgun 4-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 5.5 Pass In Metcalf Inc
Metcalf gets zero separation and this is going to be a dink at best; Patterson throws it well behind his guy and it gets PBU’d. (IN, 0, protection 1/1)
M41 3 6 Shotgun empty 1 1 3 Okie one 7 Pass Sack N/A -11
Yet another unblocked guy right up the gut. (PR, 0, protection 0/2)
M16 1 10 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Nickel even 6 Pass Sack N/A -6
PA, unblocked guy unthreatened by run, cover-2 corner on the quick out, Patterson hesitates and is sacked. (PR, N/A, protection N/A, RPS -2)
M10 3 16 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 3-3 stack 6 Pass Flare RB Inc
DE instantly through the line, Patterson checks down and misses but really at this point it’s 38-3 and he’s about to get killed on every snap. (MA, 1, protection 0/2)
M28 2 7 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 4-3 even 7 Pass PA TE wheel Knox 23
Virtually unblocked guy up the gut, VUGUG. Patterson drifts away from him to buy time and the TE actually gets open as he sells an out and then breaks upfield. Patterson puts it right on him. (CA+, 3, protection 0/2)
O35 2 9 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 6 Pass Throwaway N/A Inc
Time! Patterson actually has a lot of it here. I can’t see if anyone’s open. One guy on a fade really isn’t. Patterson gets pressure eventually, rolls, keeps looking, and finally dumps it. (TA, 0, protection 2/2)
O35 3 9 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 3-2 dime 5 Pass In Metcalf 4
Patterson checks down on third and long because a three man rush gets through clean and he can’t let it develop. Immediate tackle. (CA, 3, protection 0/2)
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Box Type Play Player Yards
O31 3 5 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Nickel over 6 Pass Improv Jefferson Inc
Patterson probably bugs out too early here and just needs a little patience to let it develop, but how could you have patience at this point? He breaks forward, gets a spy in his face, and misses Jefferson at the sticks on a flick because he’s getting tackled as he throws it. (BA, 0, protection 2/2)
O32 2 12 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 6 Pass In Metcalf Inc
It’s 52-3 so grain of salt on decisions here as Patterson tries not to get killed. FWIW, this is another zero-good-options throw; he throws an in to a FR WR who’s lost the route and DB PBUs. (CA, 0, protection 1/1)
O32 3 12 Shotgun 4-wide 1 0 4 DIme even 5 Pass Hitch Brown Inc
Reasonably good protection; Brown open a few yards short of the sticks as Bama is playing soft; good throw, dropped. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
O32 4 12 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 3-3 stack 6 Pass Improv N/A INT
VUGUG. This time RG ole blocks the NT. Patterson drifts back and just chucks it in the direction of a guy; S undercuts for the INT. This isn’t even a bad decision given the situation. (PR, 0, protection 0/2)
M23 2 8 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Pass Fade Lodge 37
Three man rush by Bama’s second unit just gives Patterson enough time to chuck a fade down the sideline that is very well covered and dead on the money; Lodge goes up to make a tough catch. (DO, 2, protection ½)
O44 2 14 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 4-3 over 7 Pass Dumpoff RB Inc
VUGUG. Patterson does a good job to avoid the guy and finds his RB wide open on the sideline but wings it over his head. (IN, 0, protection 0/2)
O44 3 14 Shotgun 4-wide 1 0 4 Nickel even 6 Pass Out Jefferson 4
Decent protection; at this point whatevs. Ball is high and forces a good catch. (MA, 2, protection 1/1)

Probably a lot of useful information from this game against one of the nation's top defenses, right?

nooooooooope

Why not?

Imagine last year's Michigan OL playing Bama.

No.

Fair enough. Since we're not imagining things, here's Patterson's night in a nutshell:

During one stretch Patterson was sacked on five of eight dropbacks. If you're not a chart-reader, about halfway through the game (but most of the way through the chart since the 4th was irrelevant) I got frustrated by typing the same thing about a Virtually Unblocked Guy Up the Gut and started typing VUGUG when that happened.

This was a debacle from the start, out of hand by the end of the first quarter, and very little of it had anything to do with Patterson. He did show some happy feet and miss some throws after moving around in the pocket, but the environment was such that it would have been a shock if he did not.

But enough about Michigan's pass protection.

Yes, the flashbacks to various Michigan QBs laying crumpled under a pile of bodies were persistent and severe here. For the record, I had Ole Miss's pass protection at 22/55, probably a UFR record low 40%, and on many Ole Miss dorfs I thought about a third protection negative because the pressure was coming directly up the middle of the field.

This wasn't a guy coming around the edge and sacking the QB after he maybe had time to get the ball out. This was someone running inside the tackle, usually untouched. Patterson frequently had to start moving before he'd even set up to throw.

Did this exercise produce anything at all?

One hell of a Poor Damn Shea Patterson passing chart, for one:

SHEA PATTERSON

  Good   Neutral   Bad   Ovr
Game DO CA SCR   PR MA   BA TA IN BR   DSR PFF
Alabama   2 15(3)+++     8   3   1 3 3 1   64% -
Vandy   5 16(4)+     3   3   1 1 4(1) 1   74% -

These pressure-heavy games become hard to chart as I try to suss out what is a reasonable grade for any particular throw when you have the dread certainty someone's about to take your head off. FWIW, one interception—a fourth and twelve heave after VUGUG—got marked a "marginal" throw because the right thing to do was fling the ball in the general direction of one of your guys. The other one could have been either an IN or a BR; I went with the more judgy BR. This is bad but it's not throwing it to a linebacker's chest:

Given the situation, Patterson's part in this debacle is at worst neutral for Michigan's prospects. And it might be positive? He was put in a number of no-win scenarios, like this incomplete slant on Ole Miss's best drive.

image

That's destined for a PBU, but all options are bad here. It's a seven man protection with only three guys in the route. The slot's covered, the solo WR to the bottom of the screen is getting jammed to oblivion, and the targeted Van Jefferson has lost his route badly. At least this time Patterson wasn't running for his life.

Patterson duly threw these passes even if it was clear the WR—frequently for some reason true freshman DK Metcalf—was getting his face pressed off.

He had no other choice unless being buried under 500 pounds of Bama lineman counts. Metcalf in particular had a rough game, unable to get off the line of scrimmage with any consistency and poor when given an opportunity to catch a ball.

For Patterson to (mostly) maintain his accuracy and not do anything truly egregious is impressive. Probably the worst thing he did was miss Lodge when he busted open for a 45-yard TD, and he did pepper in a couple pretty throws:

And while he had this without rolling out, this escapability and ability to put the ball on the money 30 yards downfield while on the move is impressive:

Lord knows Michigan's going to need that next year.

So… punt?

More or less. Patterson had very few opportunities to do anything and was being chased all night. I don't think any QB could have been effective given the chaos around him; this is no more meaningful than Patterson torching UT-Martin.

Upon Further Review: Shea Patterson vs Vanderbilt

Upon Further Review: Shea Patterson vs Vanderbilt

Submitted by Brian on May 7th, 2018 at 1:30 PM

23970305497_4ba12745be_z

[Bryan Fuller]

CONTEXT NOTES: Patterson had five games against P5 competition before getting knocked out for the year after the LSU game. Two were grim hammerings at the hands of LSU and Alabama where he threw 5 INTs against zero touchdowns and failed to hit 50% completions. Games against Cal, Auburn, and Vandy were much better. This is the Vandy game, chosen first because there's a handy Shea-only reel on the Youtubes.

Now, you hear "Vandy" and expect the Keystone Kops but they were a respectable-ish 5-7 last year and were 17th nationally in pass D S&P+. Their sack rate was almost exactly average, which helped a lot. Initial reviews of the Bama and LSU indicate that the Ole Miss OL fell apart against top-end rushers and Patterson spent a lot of time running for his life.

OLE MISS OFFENSE NOTES: The Rebels ran a standard modern passing spread reminiscent of Penn State minus Saquon Barkley. All plays are from the gun; most are three-wide with a flex TE off the line of scrimmage or in the slot.

Their receiving core was stacked back to front, with DK Metcalf, DaMarkus Lodge, Van Jefferson, and AJ Brown all getting 50+ targets. Brown, a potential first round pick next year, is the shortest of those guys at 6'1", 225; he got put in the slot frequently in an effort to get him matched up against nickel corners and safeties.

The Ole Miss OL was also almost dead average in allowing sacks.

Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Box Type Play Player Yards
M28 2 8 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 6.5 Pass PA hitch Metcalf 3
Quick pitch and catch, CB rallies to tackle ably. (CA, 3)
M26 3 9 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Nickel even 6 Pass Sack N/A -8
LT smoked immediately. He gets a push in; Patterson can step up but has to break a tackle and gets delayed. Vandy rallies to finish. (PR, N/A)
M39 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 6 Pass Fade Metcalf Inc
An attempt at a bomb on which Metcalf does get over the top of the CB but gets no separation. CB gets an arm grab in and Metcalf can only spear at it with one hand. Throw is perfect. (DO, 2, route-)
M46 3 3 Shotgun 3-wide 1 0 4 Nickel over 6 Pass Improv Brown 19
Good pocket, ton of time. Patterson can’t find anyone and his timer goes off; he rolls out. He points his dude to the sideline and then nails him in stride right at the line . Tough call: want him to find someone given the time but he made it work for a chunk. Results-based charting. (DO, 2)
O35 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Pass Circle Brown 8
(Probably) a clever counter to an Ole Miss staple as this looks like double slants to the field and Patterson pumps it; outside WR breaks deep but is covered. Backup plan is the slot converting his slant into a circle route in the vacated area. Open for a chunk. (CA, 3)
O27 2 3 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 3-4 7 Pass Dorf N/A Inc
Outside WR runs a go. Patterson throws a hitch. (NC, N/A)
M42 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 3-4 6.5 Pass RPO slant Metcalf 58
Basic RPO on which the MLB sucks up to the run fake and an OLB who should absolutely be dropping into this sits and watches the ball. That’s a first down, and then Metcalf and some comical S play turn it into a TD. (CA, 3)
O42 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 6 Pass Improv N/A Inc
PA and some Vandy hijinks confuse a G and get a DT through clean. DT gets tackled, holding call. Patterson bugs out. He avoids the DE, gets to the sideline, and throws it OOB. (PR, N/A)
M43 1 25 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 6 Pass Hitch Jefferson 2
I guess Ole Miss is expecting softer coverage? Or this is a busted screen? I don’t know. Two yard hitch, immediate tackle. This is more or less a screen. (CA, 3, screen)
M45 2 23 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 6.5 Run QB arc keeper Patterson 10
A good gain but a bit of a woof by Patterson, as the TE arc blocking from him has nobody to block since the entire front ignores Patterson. He gets forced inside by the slot LB and bursts up a seam. Patterson(-2) then slides down after ten yards when ten more beckon.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Box Type Play Player Yards
O45 3 13 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Dime even 5 Pass Dig Jefferson Inc
Decent pocket but Patterson has to step up as DEs get around the edge. He can, but he’s boxed in. He fires a dig route that’s debatably open; it’s batted at the LOS. Still gets to the WR but just past his hands. (BA, N/A)
M9 1 26 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Nickel even 6 Pass Flare screen RB -5
This is dangerous, behind the RB and backwards. RB manages to spear it, and then gets blown up as a WR badly misses a block. (IN, 1, screen)
M4 2 31 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Pass Slant Jefferson Inc
Well behind Jefferson and a tough out of frame catch attempt fails. (IN, 1)
M4 3 31 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Dime even 5 Pass Flare screen RB 12
Give up and punt. (CA, 3, screen)
M25 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 5-1 LB split 6 Pass PA fade Lodge Inc
Patterson misses another fade where his WR gets over the top without separation. Ball Is right at the sideline and only a yard or two off. (IN, 0)
M25 2 10 Shotgun trips 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Pass Cross Brown 27
Blitz sees a standup DE slash inside the RT. Patterson resets outside that guy and fires an impressive crossing route that takes his WR away from the coverage and hits him right in stride. Brown breaks a tackle for a chunk. (DO, 3, protection 0/2)
O33 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Run Zone read keeper Patterson -2
All six guys in the box attack the RB so Patterson pulls. This is a bad idea as Vandy has a clever trap on, converting from a two high look to a one high at the snap by shooting the field-side safety down. He contains, and Brown appears to be running an RPO slant so he’s not thinking about blocking. RPS -2.
O35 2 12 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 6 Pass PA Post Lodge 35
Massive coverage bust is free TD. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)
O27 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Pass PA fade Metcalf Inc
Probably a quick-strike attempt after a TO. Ole Miss crams the boundary with players and gets one on on coverage with Metcalf barely outside a hash. He’s got a ton of room to the sideline; Patterson tries to hit him in stride as if that room doesn’t exist. He barely misses; ball deflects off Metcalf’s fingertips. (MA, 1, protection 1/1)
O27 2 10 Shotgun trips 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Pass Improv RB 25
Patterson flushed as a blitz gets through. Poor contain allows him to get out relatively quickly, and the RB pops wide open after converting a dumpoff into something deeper. Patterson finds it and hits him in stride for a big chunk. (CA+, 3, protection 0/2)
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Box Type Play Player Yards
O4 2 G Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Goal line 7 Run Zone read keeper Patterson 4
Odd triple option-ish play as the TE runs what looks like an arc block for a second and then converts it to a flat route. CB covers it. WR to this side is blocking, though. Patterson(+1) is able to dodge as safety and impressively runs over a corner to score.
M35 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Run QB arc keeper Patterson 7
Vandy again appears to leave the edge open but fills with a safety. This time the arc TE cuts off a linebacker to the inside; Patterson(+1) is one on one on the edge and gives that S the Forcier with a decisive upfield cut to get a solid gain.
M48 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 6 Pass Fade Metcalf 34
Another jammed boundary and one vs one in a lot of space. Metcalf loses the route pretty definitively; Patterson should be using the space to the outside—they’re running on the numbers—but instead just throws it like usual. Metcalf makes a Prothro catch to make up for it. (MA, 1, protection 1/1)
O18 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 6 Pass Throwaway Metcalf Inc
Only get a portion of this play. When we come back an OL is five yards downfield on some sort of RPO, Patterson is rolling out, an attempted double move gets crushed, and Patterson dumps it. (not charted, 0)
O30 1 10 Shotgun quad 1 1 3 Dime over 5 Pass Slant Brown 11
Fake the screen everyone runs out of quad into some routes; this time Patterson throws it a bit behind Brown because a linebacker is about to run under him; he keeps the ball away from him and turns a potentially dangerous play into a reception. (DO, 2, protection 1/1)
O19 1 10 Shotgun trips 1 1 3 Nickel even 6 Pass Dumpoff RB Inc
All day in the pocket. Patterson can’t find anyone and dumps it down to the back, turfing a short throw. (IN, 0, protection 3/3)
O19 2 10 Shotgun trips 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Run QB draw Patterson 5
RG gets pushed back in Patterson’s lap in an uncomfortable way so he has a choice and bounces out; he’s able to beat a DE to the corner and get a few(+0.5). Weak late hit flag after.
O6 2 G Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Okie zero 7 Pass BSF Lodge 6
The perfect, unstoppable back shoulder fade. (DO, 3, protection 1/1)
M48 1 10 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Nickel even 6 Pass Comeback Lodge 14
23 seconds left in the half, 2 TOs, Vandy rushes three and leaves a LB in a two-yard zone. Woof. All day, Patterson throws a rope to Lodge for a chunk. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
O38 1 10 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Nickel over 6 Pass Deep out Metcalf Inc
Blitz gets a guy through up the gut. Patterson backs off and throws off his back foot; the resulting soft 15 yard out is in the perfect spot but the CB has time to rally because of the velocity and can get a PBU. Pretty good throw all the same since it was either his guy or no one. (CA, 1, protection 0/2)
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Box Type Play Player Yards
O38 2 10 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 3-2 dime 5 Pass Improv N/A Inc
This is pretty weird as Patterson takes a drop after getting the snap and ends up ten yards behind the LOS. Maybe for the best as line lets a DE through untouched. Patterson has time to survey because of the drop but then has to start moving around. He tries a late sideline throw that doesn’t come off. Think you have ot take your shot here even if it’s a bad idea throw in a normal circumstance. This play starts with 9 on the clock. (BR, 0, protection 0/2)
O38 3 10 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 3-2 dime 5 Pass Hail Mary N/A Inc
Hail Mary is incomplete.
O29 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Pass Slot seam Brown 29
PA and the safety turns his back to the slot receiver? And settles down on the boundary hash? No redirect from slot corner. This leaves a slot seam for Brown open and Patterson calmly nails it. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
M21 2 9 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 NIckel even 6 Pass Dig Brown 14
Lot of time and a clean pocket; Patterson surveys and throws a bit high but not too bad to Brown, who converted a very covered hitch into a dig route and got open. (CA, 3, protection 2/2, Brown route +)
M35 1 10 Shotgun trips 1 1 3 NIckel under 6 Pass Bubble screen Brown 8
Very very soft coverage on the outside; S can’t make a one on one play on Brown. (CA, 3, screen)
M43 2 2 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Pass PA hitch Jefferson 11
CB blitz might be telegraphed as both WR and QB are prepped for it. Quick hitch before the S can get over for a solid gain. (CA, 3, protection 1/1, RPS +1)
O46 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Pass Throwaway N/A Inc
All day, nobody on the screen, no throw, eventual rollout and throwaway. (TA, N/A, protection 3/3)
O46 2 10 Shotgun 4-wide 1 0 4 NIckel even 6 Pass Sack N/A -7
Patterson’s first read is not there and then he’s buried. (PR, N/A, protection 0/2)
M47 3 17 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Dime even 5 Pass Comeback Lodge 11
Good protection; second or third read from Patterson finds Lodge coming open on a comeback route well short of the sticks. Patterson pulls Lodge off his feet with a slightly low throw. (MA, 2, protection 2/2)
O14 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel under 6 Pass Stop Lodge 9
Another CB blitz that converts a route, it looks like, as Lodge just stops when his guy goes in. Patterson sees it and throws it; Lodge runs over the filling S to near a first down. (CA, 3, protection 1/1, RPS +1)
M35 1 10 Shotgun trips 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Pass Flare screen RB Inc
LT fails to cut the playside DE and he bats the ball down. This is not a BA because it’s a screen he has to throw. (not charted, screen, protection 0/1)
M35 3 10 Shotgun trips 1 1 3 Dime even 5 Pass Screen RB 12
Wide open and an easy conversion. (CA, 3, screen, RPS +2)
O49 2 5 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 3-4 8 Pass Fade WR Inc (Pen +15)
Strange all around here as Vandy goes zero on second and five; instead of running a post or something that would take advantage of it it’s another fade route. This one is way long but probably because the CB latched onto the WR and slowed him, drawing a flag. (not charted, N/A, protection 1/1)
M25 2 1 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 3-2 dime 5.5 Pass Hitch Brown 10
Easy conversion as the CB lined up over Brown slides down into the box and then tries to recover. Expecting a run, I guess. Easy pitch and catch. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)

WELL I CERTAINLY FEEL REFRESHED

welcome back

LET'S TALK ABOUT OUR LORD AND SAVIOR SHEA PATTERSON

Sacrelicious as always, I see.

GIVE ME THE GOOD STUFF NOW

This game was sort of muted? Three of Patterson's touchdowns were gifts from Vanderbilt safeties, another long completion was a WR bailout, and aside from one drive that started off in first and 26 somehow, Patterson was almost always operating near midfield or closer to Vandy's goal line. When you get 58 yards on a basic RPO slant…

…you're gonna have a good time. Also when the one-high safety turns his back on the slot receiver and goes to the wrong hash.

The other long TD was so open it wasn't worth clipping.

Despite the ease of the big plays, add it up and it's another level than Michigan's QB play from a year ago:

SHEA PATTERSON

  Good   Neutral   Bad   Ovr
Game DO CA SCR   PR MA   BA TA IN BR   DSR PFF
Vandy   5 16(4)+     3   3   1 1 4(1) 1   74% -

What's more, those negative events were almost all of the benign variety: inaccurate balls on tough downfield sideline routes, a ball thrown away despite a lot of time, a failure to understand that the half was about to end. Other than a couple of passes batted at the line (one did not get charted because it was a screen), no Vandy defender touched the ball. There are no starred ohshit throws. The worst thing he did was throw a flare screen behind his running back on the one drive Ole Miss was backed up.

And while he was provided some easy long TD he hit every one of those throws with precision. Patterson's accuracy in this game was impressive. He wasn't just hitting guys, he was hitting them in the facemask. This qualified as one of his less precise throws.

I mentioned it in the table, and then thought "why am I mentioning this completely standard throw?" Because it wasn't in a guy's facemask.

Five DO throws? Are we grading on a hope curve?

Well, I never. While Patterson's TDs were mostly routine throws there were a selection of eye-openers. Ole Miss threw a lot of fades last season—I'm betting that that's one reason they got crushed vs LSU and Alabama—and Patterson displayed excellent, consistent touch on them. Ole Miss's crew of burly WRs is capable with the ball in the air, but they're not exactly blazers. This was a fairly typical outcome of the many fades:

There's not a lot of window there and Patterson hits it. When he missed it was usually a narrow thing. One glanced off DK Metcalf's fingertips…

…others were very good, accurate throws to blanketed receivers, like this Prothro catch:

This is a perfect throw if the WR didn't get beat up on his route. Since he did and your formation—everyone in the boundary, solo WR to field on the hash—is designed to give your WR a ton of room to the sideline on a fade route, I assume the back shoulder is option 1B and should be thrown. There were a couple of these.

OTOH, the back shoulder is in his toolbox and was the throw on Patterson's most impressive TD:

He looked the part of the five-star in this game.

Are you still on this Tate Forcier comparison?

Tate Forcier is a nice comparison! The guy failed out shortly after declaring it was impossible to fail out, yeah. While on the field, he was really promising as a pass-first run-second spread QB. Patterson is also that. Here's his best Tate vs ND impression:

He's not exactly dynamic. He's going to lose in space against a DB or linebacker most of the time, and when Ole Miss did pop him open for a chunk play he slid way too early.

We talked about this a ton last year, but sliding like that is probably more dangerous than just getting tackled.

The other point of comparison with Forcier is Patterson's ability to slide around the pocket, or break outside, and make a play out of busted protections. This incompletion might be Patterson's most impressive pass on the day, as it's a pinpoint back-foot throw that nearly results in a 15-yard out despite the pressure:

Here he's able to re-set in the pocket and find Lodge for a chunk:

He's extremely comfortable on the move, even when rolling left as a right-handed QB.

Patterson's ability to keep plays alive and then strike downfield is very Tate-like… and by God if there's any team configuration that cries out for a Tate-alike, "this team is awesome except for the worst pass protection in the country last year" is it.

What does it mean for the future?

Judgment is withheld until I can get handle on the dual LSU/Alabama debacles, but Patterson's extremely consistent fade delivery leapt out in this game, as did his comfort when throwing from non-standard-pocket-statue body positions.

I think I phrased some of my talk about Patterson poorly, causing folks to think I'm relatively down on him. When I said he doesn't look like a typical five star, what I meant was he didn't look like your typical pro-style lumber-cannon, like Stanford's endless procession of five-star guys who don't quite work out. He looks like a scrappy underdog sort who gets ranked #159th. Then he uncorks those fades.

Upon Further Review 2017: Special Teams vs Ohio State

Upon Further Review 2017: Special Teams vs Ohio State

Submitted by Adam Schnepp on December 1st, 2017 at 12:00 PM

38590478766_e7bd1748b2_z

someday I hope to be as happy as Robert Landers (far left) [Fuller]

Ohio State’s punt coverage team is pretty good. Drue Chrisman, Ohio State’s punter, is really good. As a unit, they’ve allowed four returned punts for a total of 55 yards this season. Forty-two of those yards came on this play.

[After THE JUMP: more on both returners, parsing the punting, appreciating James Foug]

Upon Further Review 2017: Special Teams vs Wisconsin

Upon Further Review 2017: Special Teams vs Wisconsin

Submitted by Adam Schnepp on November 24th, 2017 at 6:32 PM

38511702391_f2c919274a_z

[Fuller]

Formation/substitution notes: Uche made an impact, charting for the first time after (per the official site) playing on ST the previous two weeks and against Air Force. Had to look that up because I thought this was the first week they were using him on kickoff.

Otherwise, things remained the same. Michigan brought pressure on their punts when they had Wisconsin pinned deep, otherwise dropping at least one man post-snap. They doubled a gunner on punt return coverage once again this week; Wisconsin was deep in their own territory, and it worked fairly well.

[After THE JUMP: what could be more BIG TENNNN than the mere existence of a ST UFR? EXTENSIVE DISCUSSION OF THE PUNNNTTTTEEERRRR]

Upon Further Review 2017: Offense vs Wisconsin

Upon Further Review 2017: Offense vs Wisconsin

Submitted by Brian on November 23rd, 2017 at 10:09 AM

2017 logoo_thumbSPONSOR NOTE. We're having a charity tailgate before the OSU game. Details:

MGoBlog and HomeSure Lending are having a tailgate before The Game at The North End Zone tailgate space, 1011 S. Main Street (map) from 9 a.m. to a little before noon, with food from Scratch Barbecue and beer donated from Wolverine State Brewing, and proceeds going to the T. Wall Foundation.

  • Tickets (food & beer included): $12 if you buy them ahead of time on EventBritegets you in, gets you a wrist band for the food.
  • Tickets (just beer at the door): $10 suggested donation just to come hang out on your way to the game.
  • Watch/Afterparty: Your ticket for the tailgate also gets you a round at Wolverine Brewing. If you don’t have a ticket for The Game but want to come, you won’t be alone; there’s a Lyft pickup spot across the street so when people go into the game a handful of us (I’m still in the market) are gonna go back to Wolverine State Brewing to watch it together, and more are planning to come back there (and park there) after.

Scratch provided the BBQ at the season-opening event, if you were there. It's good.

FORMATION NOTES. THERE WERE DEFINITELY SOME FORMATIONS, BACK TO YOU JOHN.

vlcsnap-2017-11-21-19h17m13s422

SUBSTITUTION NOTES. Same QB and OL as the previous few games until Peters was knocked out. Onwenu did get a couple snaps as a RG in a jumbo formation, with Ruiz popping out to a TE-ish spot. Still mostly Gentry/McKeon at TE, with a number of 3 TE formations that also had Bunting. DPJ the main WR, with Perry, Crawford, and McDoom filling out the snaps.

Evans, Higdon, and Walker at RB, with an Isaac cameo on which he got hurt again.

[After THE JUMP: meh]

Upon Further Review 2017: Special Teams vs Maryland

Upon Further Review 2017: Special Teams vs Maryland

Submitted by Adam Schnepp on November 17th, 2017 at 10:04 AM

37636337354_9ccb9f2a5c_z

[Paul Sherman]

Substitution/formation notes: Michigan lined up a gunner in the slot…

maryland punt 1

…and then motioned him in. In this instance he carries the Maryland player lined up across from him into the middle, and he taps his lineman to let him know which gap he’s in.

maryland punt 2

Michigan used this motion again later in the game, though that time they had the gunner motion across the entire formation and then head downfield.

[After THE JUMP: A Eurostep punt block? Head to the comments, you titan of special teams nomenclature]

Upon Further Review 2017: Defense vs Maryland

Upon Further Review 2017: Defense vs Maryland

Submitted by Brian on November 16th, 2017 at 3:31 PM

2017 logoo_thumbSPONSOR NOTE. We're (still!) having a charity tailgate before the OSU game. Details:

MGoBlog and HomeSure Lending are having a tailgate before The Game at The North End Zone tailgate space, 1011 S. Main Street (map) from 9 a.m. to a little before noon, with food from Scratch Barbecue and beer donated from Wolverine State Brewing, and proceeds going to the T. Wall Foundation.

  • Tickets (food & beer included): $12 if you buy them ahead of time on EventBritegets you in, gets you a wrist band for the food.
  • Tickets (just beer at the door): $10 suggested donation just to come hang out on your way to the game.
  • Watch/Afterparty: Your ticket for the tailgate also gets you a round at Wolverine Brewing. If you don’t have a ticket for The Game but want to come, you won’t be alone; there’s a Lyft pickup spot across the street so when people go into the game a handful of us (I’m still in the market) are gonna go back to Wolverine State Brewing to watch it together, and more are planning to come back there (and park there) after.

Scratch provided the BBQ at the season-opening event, if you were there. It's good.

FORMATION NOTES. A confession: virtually all of the one-or-two safety bits of the table below are guesses, because we got BTN Director With Severe Myopia again. This is third and ten.

vlcsnap-2017-11-16-11h23m53s845

I hate this man. If someone ever comes up to me and says "hey, I directed the 2017 Michigan-Maryland game" there is going to be a duel with cannonballs and whatnot.

FWIW, Michigan had 20 3-3-5 snaps that were concentrated on passing downs. They were in a 4-2-5 on 30 snaps. There were also 5 dime snaps and one 4-3 snap.

SUBSTITUTION NOTES. 247 again provides details. Back seven was as per usual with the exception of Lavert Hill, who went out midway. this led to a bunch of snaps for Watson and Long—56 and 50 of 70, respectively. Thomas got in for a few plays, as did Woods and JKP very late. The three safeties and two core LBs were nearly omnipresent. Furbush got 16 snaps and Uche 6.

More rotation on the DL; Winovich was again an ironman. Hurst and Gary both played just over 50 snaps; Solomon got 34. Kemp, Mone, and Marshall all got around 15 snaps, with Paye and Dwumfour picking up the scraps late.

[After THE JUMP: this again, except they got more than 300 yards]

Upon Further Review 2017: Offense vs Maryland

Upon Further Review 2017: Offense vs Maryland

Submitted by Brian on November 15th, 2017 at 4:24 PM

2017 logoo_thumbSPONSOR NOTE. We're having a charity tailgate before the OSU game. Details:

MGoBlog and HomeSure Lending are having a tailgate before The Game at The North End Zone tailgate space, 1011 S. Main Street (map) from 9 a.m. to a little before noon, with food from Scratch Barbecue and beer donated from Wolverine State Brewing, and proceeds going to the T. Wall Foundation.

  • Tickets (food & beer included): $12 if you buy them ahead of time on EventBritegets you in, gets you a wrist band for the food.
  • Tickets (just beer at the door): $10 suggested donation just to come hang out on your way to the game.
  • Watch/Afterparty: Your ticket for the tailgate also gets you a round at Wolverine Brewing. If you don’t have a ticket for The Game but want to come, you won’t be alone; there’s a Lyft pickup spot across the street so when people go into the game a handful of us (I’m still in the market) are gonna go back to Wolverine State Brewing to watch it together, and more are planning to come back there (and park there) after.

Scratch provided the BBQ at the season-opening event, if you were there. It's good.

FORMATION NOTES. Slightly less heavy this week with 14 3-WR snaps, some of them on standard downs. Most, actually. There were 12 two-WR snaps, 17 one-WR snaps, and 7 beef machine snaps, one of which was the beefiest: a 7-OL, 3 TE formation on which Poggi scored. BEHOLD THE MAJESTY.

image

I called this simply BEEF, since brevity is the heart of our goal here.

SUBSTITUTION NOTES. QB and OL were as expected. Per 24/7, Spanellis got ten snaps as a bonus OL and Runyan got two. Evans and Higdon got about 20 each, with Walker filling in for Higdon after his exit with 7 snaps. FB snaps were 2:1 Poggi.

DPJ and McDoom got the most run at WR, with Perry getting just 13 snaps coming off injury. Schoenle was at 12 and Ways 8. Gentry and McKeon continue to lead the way at TE; Bunting got 23 snaps, though, and Wheatley 12.

[After THE JUMP: run run run run, but more zone]

Upon Further Review 2017: Defense vs Minnesota

Upon Further Review 2017: Defense vs Minnesota

Submitted by Brian on November 9th, 2017 at 1:50 PM

2017 logoo_thumb

SPONSOR NOTE. This was going to be a three-thousand word sponsor note because there's not much to say about this game, but Matt was like "no, stop that," like most of our advertisers have to say to us on a regular basis. "Please stop doing that," Matt said, "and instead have a brief item noting HomeSure Lending's ability to get you a mortgage from the comfort of your own home rapidly."

Thus this note, which is not an exegesis on various details of mortgage lending, and that's just another reason to get a mortgage from HomeSure.

FORMATION NOTES. Like last week, Michigan spent the vast bulk of this game in a four-man front. Whether that's disrespect to the opposition's passing game or Aubrey Solomon emerging into Michigan's best option as the seventh guy in the front seven is to be determined.

Minnesota was all three-wide gun except when they were in their irritatingly effective jet sweep package.

image

More on this in a bit.

SUBSTITUTION NOTES. 247 published snap counts earlier in the week so no speculation necessary: the back seven barely changed, with McCray, Bush, Kinnel, and Hill getting all or almost all of the 60 snaps. Long and Watson split the other CB snaps. Metellus would have gone the whole way but for his ejection; Glasgow entered in his place.

There was more rotation up front. Gary, Winovich, and Hurst got about 90% of the snaps before Minnesota's late FG drive; Solomon had 26. Kemp, Paye, Marshall, Mone, and Dwumfour all got 10-20 snaps.  Uche got 5, Rueben Jones 2.

[After THE JUMP: another week, another Big Ten quarterback.]