Bill Connelly: Michigan’s season has gone pretty much as expected
Bill Connelly has a nice read about how Michigan's season has basically gone how it was expected to go. S&P+ projected Michigan to win, on average, about 8.9 games in 2017. That would drop to around 8.5 if Speight being out for the season was considered.
https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/11/21/16683112/michigan-…
November 21st, 2017 at 12:23 PM ^
Notre Dame is a must win, North Western is a gimme, and MSU is very beatable. OSU will be starting a brand new QB. Hopefully we are healthy next year.
November 21st, 2017 at 1:34 PM ^
ND is an early season OOC game. Sure would be great to win to get some momentum and an elusive road/ranked opponent win, but I'm not seeing as "must win". Unless you're talking about a CFP run, in which case essentially every game becomes "must win."
November 21st, 2017 at 2:18 PM ^
November 21st, 2017 at 2:24 PM ^
November 21st, 2017 at 2:30 PM ^
But the main reason I miss playing ND in the OOC games is that they're usually a pretty damn good team. If we beat the piss out of them, chances are we're going to have a pretty good year (unless they happen to suck and we don't know it yet, like Florida this year). If they pound us, I get to adjust my expectations in September instead of waiting a month or two.
November 21st, 2017 at 12:32 PM ^
One of those is not like the other...
November 21st, 2017 at 1:18 PM ^
It's going to be 50-70% Michigan fans.
The road schedule is tough but that's not going to be one of the big challenges barring karmic retribution for the slapdick Hoke wins at Ryan Field.
November 21st, 2017 at 6:40 PM ^
November 21st, 2017 at 11:36 AM ^
Michigan can never, ever exceed minimal expectations.
November 21st, 2017 at 11:38 AM ^
This isn't minimal expectations. It's an average. So if we played the season 10,000 times, our average win total would be between 8 and 9 games. We're already there with a chance to get to 9. Have the tiniest amount of faith, please.
November 21st, 2017 at 11:40 AM ^
of the fan base. Don't you know that the world is ending as we know it?
November 21st, 2017 at 12:27 PM ^
uhhh.....no, thats the minimum. If everyone wants to play this game where they predicted 8 wins then fine, thats the minimum expectation. If Michigan was 7-4 right now that would be absolutely unacceptable, hence the 8 win minimum. Michigan is a team that usually gives you exactly what you expect, most times in a bad way.
November 21st, 2017 at 12:51 PM ^
I don't think you understand how averages work.
November 21st, 2017 at 1:30 PM ^
November 21st, 2017 at 1:44 PM ^
November 21st, 2017 at 2:11 PM ^
November 21st, 2017 at 1:53 PM ^
November 21st, 2017 at 6:46 PM ^
November 21st, 2017 at 12:27 PM ^
Five-win improvement over the previous year, and one miraculously unlucky play away from an 11th win. All games (except OSU) were competetive. All while starting a fricking grad transfer at QB.
So soon we forget.
But yeah sure, we're not exceeding expectations this year, I definitely agree. We might have failed to meet expectations last year, but they were still like one FG try or one inch away from the championship game, so it wasn't some massive underperformance. And every loss was by a razor thin margin. Shit happens...it's sports. The best coaches and players in the world sometimes lose games like that. Tom motherfucking Brady took an undefeated team into a superbowl and lost to Eli Manning.
Thing is, you can't expect to always exceed expectations, because by that point your expectations aren't actually expected anymore.
November 21st, 2017 at 11:36 AM ^
most expected 10 - 2
November 21st, 2017 at 11:37 AM ^
before QB injuries
only the most important position on the field
November 21st, 2017 at 12:46 PM ^
9-3 is what i expected. i hoped for 10-2 by beating either WI, psu or osu. i did consider the msu game a gimme. what a disappointment.
November 21st, 2017 at 11:43 AM ^
I think most hoped we'd get 1 out of 3 from PSU, Wisconsin, and OSU and everyone more or less banked on us losing another one in there unexpectedly (I think many circled IU, but it turned out to be MSU). Most were thinking 9-3 and probably more leaned toward 8-4 than 10-2
November 21st, 2017 at 12:26 PM ^
Who's "most?" I don't know what you predicted, but it's already been proven that "most" people at MGoBlog were not thinking 3 or 4 losses but much more frequently 2 or fewer losses.
I looked at a late summer prediction thread and 22 people predicted 2 losses or fewer, and 10 predicted 3 or more losses.
And Yo_Blue did this look back and found basically the same thing in other threads:
http://mgoblog.com/diaries/what-did-you-expect-look-back
http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/preseason-hot-takespredictionsquestions?pag…
November 21st, 2017 at 1:00 PM ^
I agreed with a fellow who said 8-4 with a loss to OSU so I did alright there. I also doled out this scorcher:
Nebraska wins the west, signs Mike Riley to a 7 year extension, and regrets it deeply in 2-3 yearsCan't win em all...
November 21st, 2017 at 3:50 PM ^
November 21st, 2017 at 11:42 AM ^
November 21st, 2017 at 11:44 AM ^
November 21st, 2017 at 11:56 AM ^
November 21st, 2017 at 6:48 PM ^
November 21st, 2017 at 12:30 PM ^
I thought 9-3 was optimistic but attainable. Just because random people on the internet "expected" 10-2 doesn't mean we should hold the coach accountable for failing to meet unrealistic expectations.
p.s. Go away, troll. Go root for Washington State.
November 21st, 2017 at 11:38 AM ^
I think we will be better next season but that schedule is just brutal. I had us at 8-4 at the start of the year, losing to Florida and beating MSU. I hope we are healthy by our bowl, blow someone's doors off and have optimism for 2018.
November 21st, 2017 at 12:05 PM ^
Yeah... I think that whoever we get in the bowl game will experience a rather rude awakening to what this Michigan team is with a QB and healthy WR's. Relying on film from a raw Peters isn't going to be of much value after the bowl game practices.
November 21st, 2017 at 6:49 PM ^
November 21st, 2017 at 11:39 AM ^
Nobody would be complaining if Michigan had lost to Florida and beat MSU.
November 21st, 2017 at 11:41 AM ^
11-0 right now.
November 21st, 2017 at 11:48 AM ^
November 21st, 2017 at 11:49 AM ^
November 21st, 2017 at 11:55 AM ^
November 21st, 2017 at 11:47 AM ^
if and only if we beat MSU and OSU...
otherwise the season has sucked big time.
November 21st, 2017 at 11:50 AM ^
because it probably means you lost to a terrible Florida team and someone else terrible like Minnesota or IU and then everyone would be up in arms about how the team can't execute against lower competition and why can't Harbaugh win the easy games
November 21st, 2017 at 12:15 PM ^
This is the most Staee take of all time.
November 21st, 2017 at 11:47 AM ^
Florida basically swapped expectations with MSU. Florida was supposed to be decent and MSU was supposed to be bad. In the big picture it's still one loss, but I agree, beating MSU would've made this season more tolerable.
November 21st, 2017 at 12:01 PM ^
November 21st, 2017 at 1:59 PM ^
im complaining that Okorn was even the the back up. Peters should have been the backup. If that would have been a Hoke decision, or Borges playcalling, the board would be up in arms.
November 21st, 2017 at 11:46 AM ^
November 21st, 2017 at 11:52 AM ^
November 21st, 2017 at 11:53 AM ^
/s
I may be in the minority but I still see Coach is building something great. It’s painfully painful to be patient. But patience we must have. Or I guess you can jump off the bandwagon. Make room for the 2018 crowd.
November 21st, 2017 at 11:57 AM ^
I'm with you - I'm stilly fully aboard the Harbaugh Train.
November 21st, 2017 at 12:15 PM ^