Is this Wisconsin game the most important of the Harbaugh era?
So as you might deduce from the title I am inclined to think that this Saturday evening's tilt with the Badgers is a pretty big one. As I thought about the viability of my premise, that this game is the most important in the Harbaugh era, I do realize it's not against MSU or OSU which would traditionally be the games that we would attach such significant meaning too. However, just looking at the present state of our program, both real and perceived, I think a win this weekend really sets us up for a strong season, and hopefully momentum going forward as a program.
Why this game? Some thoughts . . .
When Harbaugh took over every national pundit in the country was predicting a National Championship in 3-5 years, and at the least a return to national prominence. A good first few seasons, crazy and awesome satellite camp and recruiting stories, twitter wars, trips overseas, all mixed in with some disappointing but very close loses had us back in the spotlight with the arrow pointing up. Then last year happened . . . the arrow evened out. Real or perceived it's where we are, and now this season is supposed to be make or break for Harbaugh.
Saturday -
The atmosphere will be amazing! A Saturday night prime time game against a conference foe who had/has aspirations of a BIG 10 title and beyond. The weather looks to be perfect with no rain and the temp around 50 degrees, perfect fall weather for football. The Big House should be a full house under the lights for a national audience and recruits to take in. College Game Day gets things started early as everyone should be excited about the day.
The schedule may now set up to be a bit more manageable than originally thought. We were looking at a bonafide BIG 10 murderers row of sorts with Wisconsin, MSU, and Penn State all in a row who all defeated us last year. Beat Wisconsin at home, while an injury depleted and emotionally down MSU (see post on Valenti) has to travel to Penn State for a very physical game that they lose. We then get to visit a very down, but admittedly desperate 3-3 MSU team with our confidence high and win a close one. Then a bye week to heal and prepare for a Penn State game at home where we hopefully learned some things from last year.
The perception of Harbaugh and the team at present is that we can't win the big games especially in Oct/Nov and this reputation has been earned. A win Saturday on the biggest stage helps to erase that thought, and brings the team much needed confidence . . . the arrow goes back up.
This all sounds really good . . . . in my head! What do you guys think? Exclude the reasons if you want and/or insert your own. How important is this game and does it carry with it a water shed moment of sorts?
October 10th, 2018 at 6:58 PM ^
I don’t agree with the narrative, but it’s out there.
October 10th, 2018 at 1:17 PM ^
But we all know Harbaugh can't beat his rivals/ranked teams/ranked teams on the road (not at a neutral site) big games/ranked teams on the road at night when there's a full moon... /s
The goalposts on these narratives keep moving. JH is better off putting his head down and just going to work. I can see the progress since he arrived. We will get there...
October 10th, 2018 at 1:45 PM ^
It's more of a "Harbaugh can't beat rivals" narrative, especially on the road and that won't change with a win this week.
October 10th, 2018 at 3:24 PM ^
Actually, Harbaugh's only win against a rival came on the road. He is undefeated in East Lansing and should be 2-0 after this season unless Lewerke goes Trace McSorely on us in the run game. But yes I agree that now being 1-6 against rivals is the big narrative. Even though he went 0-3 in games that were coin flip finishes at best.
October 10th, 2018 at 3:48 PM ^
Emphasis on "at best". That MSU blocked punt finish was more like a coin landing on its edge when all Michigan needed was for the coin not to do that.
October 10th, 2018 at 12:17 PM ^
I am still furious about that 4th and 1 spot. That was some serious home cooked bullshit.
October 10th, 2018 at 12:33 PM ^
Given the choice between beating OSU in 2016 and Wisconsin in 2018... I'm taking OSU.
The 2016 OSU game was for the B1G East Championship.
October 10th, 2018 at 1:06 PM ^
That was for the Big Ten as a whole, and the playoff. We would've beaten Wisconsin again.
October 10th, 2018 at 11:36 AM ^
I think it was the Iowa loss that set the program back. If we were 11-1 with a controversial loss at OSU in OT, we may still have made the CFP over Washington who had a home loss to USC on their record.
October 10th, 2018 at 1:13 PM ^
I don't think they'd put us in. Look at what they did in 2006.
October 10th, 2018 at 1:53 PM ^
No, it did not set the program back two years. The complete lack of OL, QB, WR, and RB recruits from previous years set the program back for last year.
Seriously, how does one game, at season's end, set a whole program back for two years?
October 10th, 2018 at 11:33 AM ^
No. It's literally the least important game on the remainder of the schedule in terms of winning the B1G.
October 10th, 2018 at 11:51 AM ^
“There is NO game on the remainder of our schedule more important than the one you’re going down the tunnel to play today!” -Bo Schembechler.
October 10th, 2018 at 11:33 AM ^
Kinda surprised that everyone is saying no, because I feel like its a no-brainer yes.
Expectations were/are high for Michigan this season, Wisconsin has been one of the Big Ten's cream of the crop teams for a decade or so, and if Michigan is ever going to start meeting those expectations both the team, the media, and the fans place on them, then you have to beat Wisconsin to get this stretch of tough games started off right.
Because if they don't win, then you really can't feel good about their chances against Penn State or Ohio State and a four-loss season likely looms. If they ever want to shed the "can't win big games" label, that has to change starting with this game. Previous games (like OSU in 2016) didn't have that "can't win the big ones" weight behind it.
Now all that being said, I think the "most important game of Harbaugh's tenure" label will likely be short-lived. Provided they beat MSU in East Lansing next weekend, the Penn State game in three weeks will be the next "most important game."
October 10th, 2018 at 11:34 AM ^
Completely agree. If it is not the biggest, it is 1A after The Game 16.
October 10th, 2018 at 11:39 AM ^
Michigan can still lose this game and win the division and conference. I think that says it all. This game is not as important as @OSU, PSU, or @MSU.
October 10th, 2018 at 11:42 AM ^
What happens in this game impacts those games. And every team in the country is looking to make the Playoff. If we lose this game, we are out of that discussion.
Perhaps the inclination is to concede that we are not a CFP team but I am not there yet.
October 10th, 2018 at 11:45 AM ^
By that reasoning, every game is the most important game. Obviously, everyone wants to make the CFP.
But you have to win the division and conference first to do that. Michigan can win the division and conference without beating Wisconsin. It can't do that today without beating the other 3 teams I mentioned. I think that makes those games more important than this one looking at the schedule today.
October 10th, 2018 at 11:48 AM ^
But that is not the question. The question is "is this the biggest game of the Harbaugh era to date." To me it is pretty clear that it the answer is yes, and if not, it is the second biggest to OSU in 2016. The importance of the rest of the games kind of flows from here in a variety of ways.
October 10th, 2018 at 11:52 AM ^
But that is answering the question. Harbaugh needs to win the division and conference title. That is what most his critics point to. They don't point to not beating Wisconsin. If Michigan loses to Wisconsin, and goes out and beats MSU and PSU, no one will care about a loss to Wisconsin.
It is hard to call this the most important game in Harbaugh's career to date when he doesn't even need to win it to win the division or conference title, and it does not involve a rivalry game.
And I don't understand why people are talking about CFP so much. How about we secure a division or conference title first and then worry about that? There is no CFP without those especially after the Notre Dame loss.
October 10th, 2018 at 1:18 PM ^
Couldn't agree more. This is the fourth most important game left on the schedule this season.
Not even the closest to Harbaugh's career.
October 10th, 2018 at 11:45 AM ^
Technically speaking, yes, but in terms of confidence? If they can't beat Notre Dame, and they can't beat Wisconsin, I don't think the team is going to be super confident heading into MSU or Penn State. This game is huge solely from a team confidence standpoint. They need a win to propel them through the other games.
October 10th, 2018 at 11:48 AM ^
There is absolutely no evidence to support anything you are saying though. If you are asking which game is the most important toward the success of our season, Wisconsin ranks lower in terms of the team goals (CFP, conference title, division title, rivalries). It is hard to argue otherwise.
October 10th, 2018 at 12:48 PM ^
These guys want to play in the Playoff, man. All college players do. If you take that off the table, there is unquestionably going to be some kind of fallout from the unavailability of that opportunity. A number of future NFL players (and we have quite a few) have essentially stopped playing toward the end of the recent seasons when the Playoff was no longer in play, and they skip bowl games regularly.
I will tell you the one position I don't want this team in, and that is going to East Lansing after losing to Wisconsin at home. I don't care how Michigan State has looked or not looked so far this season, that would be a recipe for disaster.
There is no reason or clear rationale to underplay the importance of this game. I don't understand the desire to do so.
October 10th, 2018 at 1:02 PM ^
After OSU got blown out @Iowa last year, they hamblasted MSU 48-3. How does that work in your argument?
It is the MSU game next week, and the division and conference titles are still on the line even with a loss to Wisconsin. And there is still an outside shot at the CFP even with a loss to Wisconsin given how difficult Michigan's schedule is and the potential to avenge a potential loss in a B1G Championship Game.
October 10th, 2018 at 1:26 PM ^
They were coming home to play a division rival, not going on the road(where we struggle mightily under Harbaugh in the best of circumstanes)to play one.
October 10th, 2018 at 12:28 PM ^
Confidence is valuable, but always overrated by fans. In fact, the performance in this game will have a much greater effect on the confidence of the fans than the confidence of the team.
Many teams have won championships after losing an early game or two. Especially non-conference or non-division games.
Many teams have responded to a loss to a bad team with a win over a good team the next week, which is evidence of the way fans tend to overrate confidence. Theoretically, that would be when a team was lowest in confidence. Confidence is neither necessary nor sufficient to winning. Playing well matters infinitely more.
October 10th, 2018 at 5:52 PM ^
I read this and immediately assumed you probably didn't play serious sports and scroll down and of course Reader71 (who is probably the most informed, reasonable poster on this board and who played college OL) nailed it.
Players and athletes don't lose confidence that easily. They didn't lose to ND and think woe is me, we aren't that good. They said, look we basically dominated the second half, they hit some lucky passes, we're better than they are (EVERY athlete at this level thinks that way - Winovich even said as much after the game).
So of course, they've gone on to win 5 straight. A loss here will be annoying but their divisional and conference goals will be in front of them, they'll be focused and motivated to get that bad taste out of their mouths in EL.
They would not be where they are, as individual players, if they lost confidence to the point of it being a problem that easily.
October 10th, 2018 at 1:02 PM ^
If this was an away game I'd agree with you. But we beat a top 10 (!) Wisconsin team at home 2 years ago. This is "just another one of those".
Beat a highly ranked team on the road... and then we're talking.
October 10th, 2018 at 11:33 AM ^
no, but is maybe in the top 5.
It will be an important game to establish momentum for the program. We've dragged in Game Day, so now there is more than normal attention on the matchup. A solid win may start to turn around the Harbaugh detractors.
October 10th, 2018 at 11:35 AM ^
And then MSU is the most important game, and then Penn State is the most important game, and then Rutgers is....a game we have scheduled, and then Indiana is the most important game, and then Ohio State is THE GAME.
October 10th, 2018 at 11:37 AM ^
If we have CFP aspirations, it's the most important game to date. But in terms of winning the B1G, it's not more important than our divisional games, including Rutgers.
October 10th, 2018 at 11:38 AM ^
No, but it is the most important game we are playing this week.
Go Blue... beat the Badgers
October 10th, 2018 at 11:47 AM ^
+1 Insightful
October 10th, 2018 at 11:38 AM ^
It's fall break. I hope the students show up.
October 10th, 2018 at 11:49 AM ^
I find myself hoping the students will show up every week.
October 10th, 2018 at 12:38 PM ^
This is a good point. Anyone know if the dorms close for this break? Either way, you’d hope that this type of a game (at night) would sway a few kids to stick around until Sunday at least. At the very least, hopefully they sell their tickets to the kids that are sticking around.
October 10th, 2018 at 1:19 PM ^
the dorms most certainly do not close this weekend
source: am an RA in stockwell
October 10th, 2018 at 1:49 PM ^
Fall break? Is this a new thing? I don't remember an official fall break when I was in school.
October 10th, 2018 at 2:19 PM ^
Was thinking same thing....
October 10th, 2018 at 11:39 AM ^
Not the most important of the era but another important game to win! We need to begin stepping up and winning against ranked teams whether we are home or away. With this defense we should be able to beat any one at any time. Offense needs to produce points no matter the game opponent, location, or weather conditions.
October 10th, 2018 at 11:40 AM ^
2016 OSU was more important. We win that, we are into the B1G CG and from there, who knows. Great momentum into the off-season recruiting period, and the "Harbaugh can't win on the road" and "Harbaugh is owned by his rivals" narratives are never born. That game had the potential to literally change the direction of our program immediately.
That said, this game is a huge game: Two top-ranked B1G teams, night game, College Gameday, probably an insane atmosphere with a lot of recruits in attendance. If we win, we are almost certainly ranked in the top 10. It also gives us great momentum heading into the Sparty game. Obviously, if all goes well over the next few games, the "most important" game of Harbaugh's tenure becomes The Game this season, where we would be playing for a spot in the B1G CG and a likely playoff spot.
October 10th, 2018 at 11:46 AM ^
Spot on here. 2016 vs OSU was far and away the most important game in the Harbaugh era so far.
It will most likely remain so until we roll into Columbus at 10-1. In order to get there we need to beat the next 5 opponents, but that doesn’t make each of those the most important game IMO.
October 10th, 2018 at 11:42 AM ^
I think it's important, but mainly to develop momentum for the rest of the season.
Winning this game, especially if it's done in spectacular fashion, will give the guys confidence going into the MSU and PSU games.
That said, regardless of what happens between now and then, finally beating OSU will be the only thing that will start to change the national perception of Michigan back to what we all think it should be.
October 10th, 2018 at 11:49 AM ^
That's where I'm at too. Its probably the biggest game in his tenure now, but if they win this one and the MSU one, its also going to be quickly replaced by the Penn State game and Ohio State game later this season.
October 10th, 2018 at 11:44 AM ^
No.
Ohio State will always be the most important game.
October 10th, 2018 at 11:45 AM ^
No, but the takes will be annoying (for a few days) if Michigan loses. Otherwise, it's not even in the top third of most important games this season. Think of it this way--if you had the choice to trade a Wisconsin loss for a win against any of MSU, PSU, OSU, or Notre Dame, would you take it? I would rather lose to Wisky than any of those other 4 teams.
October 10th, 2018 at 11:48 AM ^
Yes, because: "...There is no game on the remainder of the schedule more important than the one we're going down the tunnel to play today."
I think 2016 Ohio State was more important though fwiw.
October 10th, 2018 at 11:49 AM ^
At some point he's going to have to win one of the big ones. Can't lose and limp through the rest of the season, which is what seems likely to happen if they show up flat.