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Date Title Body
07/21/2018 - 1:45pm Cool.  From my post below:

Cool.  From my post below:

Since the program "got rolling" (2010 - 2017) Dantonio has won 78 games.  9 teams have won more and 2 other teams have also won 78 games.  MSU is actually 12th in win % (73.6%):

http://football.stassen.com/cgi-bin/records/calc-wp.pl?start=2010&end=2017&rpct=30&min=5&se=on&by=Win+Pct

Many people on this board (when they want to trash UM) say you are what your record says you are.

Well that makes Dantonio the 12th best coach in college football.

12th best.  Pretty awesome at MSU!!

07/21/2018 - 1:37pm Completely disagree that…

Completely disagree that Dantonio is elite.  I was thinking that Dantonio was near elite but now I may even backtrack on that call him solidly above average.

Cuz, I did the unspeakable, nay, the unthinkable ... I looked at his record.

Since the program "got rolling" (2010 - 2017) Dantonio has won 78 games.  9 teams have won more and 2 other teams have also won 78 games.  MSU is actually 12th in win % (73.6%):

http://football.stassen.com/cgi-bin/records/calc-wp.pl?start=2010&end=2017&rpct=30&min=5&se=on&by=Win+Pct

Many people on this board (when they want to trash UM) say you are what your record says you are.

Well that makes Dantonio the 12th best coach in college football.

Now UM has SUCKED during that time at 64.1% (29th best), but THAT doesn't make Dantonio elite.

I think we are all subject to a kind of "halo effect" of Dantonio's record against UM.  During that period he is 6-2.  The problem is (as I have stated) UM SUCKED during that period.

Now, instead of using simple win % you CAN use a different criteria (postseason appearances, college football playoff appearances, or (the favorite) B1G division placement or titles).  But those are narrower criteria (less data) and so I think while they aren't bad, they aren't as good as win %.

But whatever you do, don't use overall record to justify Dantonio is elite.  Cause that just don't work.

 

07/21/2018 - 1:20pm Good point about the bye but…

Good point about the bye but OSU also has 8 games without a bye.

MSU gets their bye early but it may be too early (after week two).  And MSU has to play @PSU the week before UM.

UM DOES have to play Wisc before @MSU so that mostly cancels out.

UM does have the hardest schedule in B1G but I consider it more of a slight disadvantage than a serious one.  I mean with a below average offense (instead of abysmal offense) last year, UM is 10-2.

If the offense just improves to average in Div 1A I see 9-3 as a floor and 10-2 as likely.  And in case the offense is AVERAGE in the P5, lookout!  I see 10-2 as an extremely unlikely floor and 12-0 almost as likely as 11-1.

But if the offense sucks again, well, we are looking at 7-5 to 9-3.

07/21/2018 - 1:11am PSU and MSU are definitely…

PSU and MSU are definitely will be very interesting this year (along with UM).  If PSU goes 10-2 then I think I will have to admit that Franklin is a very good coach, at least.

If MSU can stay on track and the next 2 out 3 regular seasons are 10-2 (or better) then I think I will have to admit that Dantonio is a elite coach.  Lower end of elite, but still elite.  Certainly one of the five best coaches in the game today.  Right now I consider him near elite because he is winning a lot of games where he is.  Where Saban basically ran away from.  Of course it took Dantonio his fourth year to have a great season, but it was great at 11-1.  Though his fifth and sixth years were only 10-2 and and 6-6.

And if Harbaugh can't put together a 11-1 or better regular season, at least 1 in the next 3 years, I think I will have to say he may not be the right coach for UM.  And I'm the biggest Harbaugh fan there is. 

Harbaugh's track may well be closer to what Dabo Swinney had at Clemson than we would like.  Dabo won only 10 games in the regular season in his 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th complete years at Clemson (Dabo's first year he was interim head coach).  Finally in Dabo's 7th season Clemson went undefeated in the regular season.  And they won a championship the next year.

Really looking forward to the season.  I am usually too optimistic but I think 11-1 is quite possible.  The key is the offense.  If we can crack just 50 in S&P and FEI on OFFENSE I think we will go at least 10-2 (minimum of 9-3).  If we can crack even 30 in both S&P and FEI on OFFENSE, I think we go at least 11-1 (10-2 minimum).

07/21/2018 - 12:34am Makes me almost want…

Makes me almost want Michigan to finish 4th.  Almost.

07/20/2018 - 11:47pm Agreed.  Quote commenting…

Agreed.  Quote commenting would help a lot on the longer reply sub-threads.  It'seasy to lose track when you are 10 replies down exactly who was replying to whom.

06/25/2018 - 5:03pm People really forget quickly…

People really forget quickly.  "The recency bias is strong in that one" - Here "one" refers to the human race.

This year will be a important year to gauge Franklin.  I think he actually could win 10 or 11 games but given how bad he was the prior two years, I would guess 8.

JH HAS had a kinda shitty 1.5 years.  But he was pretty awesome before that and will be again.  Meyer had a 8-5 record at Florida in 2010, so he quit.  JH didn't.

 

06/07/2018 - 11:08am And Bluey,

You should be…

And Bluey,

You should be sad.

06/04/2018 - 8:15am Really appreciate it!!

I just want to chime in my thanks for the information you provide.  And I want to emphasize that when some stupid ass MF gets on your case (because things changed, info wasn't perfect, they didn't understand what you were saying, etc.) that they are indeed a stupid ass MF.  Thanks, as always, for your info.

05/31/2018 - 9:55am This is the closest to what I am feeling

11-1 regular season, win B1G championship game, lose in first round of playoffs, so 12-2, actually.

BTW - What's with posting at 5:21 AM?  You can't be a student (don't think).  I thought all students went to sleep at 4 AM or 5 AM.  Late shift?  Maintenance window gone bad?

04/27/2018 - 10:01am The realistic expectations

just went from 9 wins to 10.5 wins.

I am not realistic.  I think we are the favorite to win the B1G now.

04/23/2018 - 9:32am Wrong stat

- Need to use yards per attempt (6.2)

- QBR was 113

- 4 TDs to 2 INTs

So, hardly horrible.  Are these stats good?  Not particularly.  But they weren't horrible.

QB play WAS a big weakness last year.  Was Peters good?  No, he was bad.  But he was a freshman.

And I would bet a LOT of money that plenty of NFL starting QBs played worse in their freshman year (if they played at all) than Peters played last year.

03/13/2018 - 4:56pm Great!  Logged in just to +1

Great!  Logged in just to +1 you.

02/20/2018 - 5:31pm Mostly diagree here

We just need an average B1G OL (in run blocking AND pass pro) and an average B1G QB and without ANY other improvements we would challenge for the B1G championship every year.

JH has brought us so far.  The final steps may be the hardest, but we are close (not soooo close, but close).

02/20/2018 - 5:29pm Dead On!!

I understand the OL pass protection (with the emphasis on protecting the QB) was bad this year, but I really think people are ignoring the OSU game.

With a superior QB we would have blown OSU out (by at least 21 points). 

With an average B1G QB we win, easily.

With an average Div-1 QB with probably win.

It's the QB.  The QB.  The QB ... that has held us back the last two years :-(

02/16/2018 - 1:37pm There won't be a nuanced or intelligent discussion to

be had with them when the statistic changes either.

02/14/2018 - 8:12pm Thanks!!

I didn't just laugh, I litterally laughed out loud.  Good stuff.

02/14/2018 - 7:31pm Inflection point?

M-Dog, maybe TV has reached a point where it is almost as good as in person.  Radio, black & white TV, color TVs 20 years ago (or even 10 years ago) weren't good enough.  But maybe now they are?

I am not saying better TVs are the reason for decline in attendance or even the major  reason but they could be a major reason.

02/13/2018 - 12:57pm Exactly - QB play was terrible

Not exactly an easy fix (since it SEEMS we have QBs who can be average B1G QBs) but a lot easier than fixing Oline.

02/12/2018 - 2:45pm Nailed it

Yeah, it's amazing how many people think you should have big games against the best defenses. Uh, they wouldn't be the best defenses if people had big games against them.

How many teams had big games against the UM defense?

02/09/2018 - 1:27pm This!!

The OL was good at run blocking by the end of the year.

The runnings backs had GREAT stats in the OSU game.

Did the QBs suck?  Yeah, for the most part they did.  Was the OL suck at pass blocking?  Not quite, but it was bad.

Do teams have down years?  Yeah, unless you are Alabama under Saban or OSU under Meyer, or are on a roll (like USC once was or Clemson right now), teams have down years.

So, the end is not nigh.  I think we win between 9 and 11 games in 2018 and in the off chance that we go 8-5 next year, 2019 is still looking like a 11 win season.

02/09/2018 - 1:18pm Agree completely

This is really for Brian:

Yeah the QB play was quite bad, especially at the end of the year.

Yeah the OL play was bad, especially in pass blocking.

But those of us writing for and reading this blog for a long time have all "gone to hell" (like 3-9, apology to MSU, 5-7, etc) and been back.

8-5 this year was a bad thing.  Does it put on more pressure for 2018?  Yep.  Would a "mediocore 9-4" in 2018 put on even more pressure in 2019?  Yep.

But we have been here before.  And we know it can get a lot worse.  So, get up and attack the day.  Generate some optimism.  Look at past recruits like Devin Bush (national rank #312) and Khaleke Hudson (national rank #386) or the fact that Notre Dame sucked ass at 4-8 last year and that MSU sucked even more ass at 3-9 last year AND they both bounced back to 10-3 this year.

And we just have to recover from 8-5?  Jeesh.  Don't be a such a pussy.

Signed,

The JMFH Fan Club

02/09/2018 - 11:46am You Gonna Die!!

Just kidding.  I think the change of UM winning SHOULD be 90%,  but given the last 10 years, I wouldn't take a bet at higher than 75% (what is that 3 - 1 odds?)

02/09/2018 - 11:39am I like your optimism!!

I like your optimism!!

02/09/2018 - 11:01am Market's not down today!! Whoop!!

Bang me!

02/08/2018 - 11:18am Boom!!

Way to use actual facts to combat the narrative. 

Too bad you will be negged off the board if you don't get in line and talk how everything sucks and we should feel bad about the football program.

01/30/2018 - 10:01pm You do NOT belong on this site

You're supposed to bitch about Drevo and Pep and the Oline and being only #15 in recruiting and bitch about the fact that Harbaugh only has 28 wins in his three years here which is not nearly enough compared to 25 for Dantonio or 24 for Brian Kelly.

Pep Sucks!!  Drevo SUCKS!!  Harbaugh REALLY SUCKS!!

/s

01/30/2018 - 3:45pm This is scary

The primary investigator is close to MSU, the interim president in an MSU insider.

It's possible they sacrifice a few lambs and go on their merry way.

01/30/2018 - 12:44pm Completely agree

Izzo appears to have somewhat of a conscience.

Dantonio is pure sociopath.

01/30/2018 - 12:42pm Agreed

The powers that be at MSU (including the donors, alumni, and probably most of the students) just don't give a shit.  If they did, they wouldn't be in this mess in the first place.

01/30/2018 - 9:17am Juries

are fickle things.  Sometimes they will acquit somebody they think is guilty because of circumstances (they like the guy, it wasn't so bad, they don't like the victim, they don't like the prosecutor, etc).

They can also do the reverse.

Today if Izzo or Dantonio (who has the least evidence against him) were brought to trial on say obstruction of justice (nice, easy, vague charge) and then various evidence about the culture of the program was shown to the jury, they would probably get a hung jury but NO way they would be acquitted.  And that's as of today.

Again, it doesn't matter if they are actually guilty (legally speaking).  The jury wouldn't acquit them.  Period.

01/30/2018 - 8:59am Completely agree

Completely agree

01/30/2018 - 8:58am The primary investigation

should be handled by the prosecutor's office.  But if the university / coach thinks the player did something inappropriate (even if they don't completey believe the accusor) then there should be some sort of punishment.

But as soon as the unversity hears the accusation, it has to go to the legal authorities.

01/28/2018 - 9:55pm ^^^^

This!!

Everybody makes mistakes but the kind of shit these guys did is horrifying, even if isn't 1/100th as bad as Nassar.

01/28/2018 - 9:30pm If you don't like it

Can't you just ignore it?

01/27/2018 - 10:04pm 3 years actually, but who's counting?

Not you, I guess

01/26/2018 - 9:55am Good strong editorial

Hits all the points, just hard enough.

We'll see if people in charge will listen.

01/10/2018 - 11:28pm Thanks

for telling it like it is.  One down year (not that bad, look at previous UM coaches down years) and people are forgetting the 10+ years of great HCing by Harbaugh.

01/10/2018 - 11:02pm Well said!!

Well said!!

01/10/2018 - 10:56pm I wonder

if that creeps out his wife?

01/08/2018 - 10:40pm Bravo!!

Finally!!  A rational and cogent poster on MGoBlog.  I was thinking this was turning into some sort weird anti-universe RCMB.

(Most posters know, but blow by the fact that we had 40 freshman and 18 sophomores on the 2017 team.)

01/05/2018 - 1:26pm So very well put!!

So very well put!!

01/05/2018 - 1:23pm So last year's 3-9 doesn't count??

That's what has aways confused me.  Harbaugh IS 1-2 against MSU.  Yes, bad, though one was on fluke, but still.  And this year was a legit loss.  When you have 5 TOs you deserve to lose.

But let's see ... since Harbaugh has been here, U-M is 28-11 and MSU is 25-14.  MSU is pretty much back to it's mean.  They should be winning about 8 or 9 games a year.  Michigan should be a bit better.

Yeah, this season sucked.  Yeah, the bowl game sucked.  Yeah, I whined and complained after the bowl game (not on MGoBlog).  But the results are there.  Under Harbaugh UM is better than MSU.  And probably always will be.

01/05/2018 - 1:11pm Just wondering ...

Did the offense get a lot more complex in 2017 than it was in 2015 or 2016??

01/05/2018 - 1:08pm Finally!!

An optimistic but very clear and well thought out comment.  I couldn't have said it better myself.  Agree with you completely!!

01/05/2018 - 1:03pm Good point

The easier games will help.  It's also unclear exactly how tough Notre Dame, Neb, NW, MSU, PSU, and ISU will be.  They won't be bad as a group, but they could doable.  All depends on the UM offense. 

Maybe I am big optimist but I wouldn't be surprised if we went 6 - 0 against them and I WOULD be very suprised if we went worse than 4 - 2. 

01/05/2018 - 10:27am Just curious

Where did you get those stats?  Especially the third quarter stats.  Is there a place to get them or did you have to calculate them (using play by play or whatever)?

12/28/2017 - 12:31am Awesome!!

Agree completely!!

12/28/2017 - 12:29am Swinney was 10 - 4 in year 3

after going 15 - 12 his first two full years as head coach.

12/28/2017 - 12:24am What a difference

a year makes.

If we look at just the previous 3 years before each became head coach (3.5 for Swinney) and 3 years after (3.5 for Swinney) we see the following:

Pri3 % - win% the three years before each became head coach

Fir3 % - win % the first three years as head coach

Pri3 L - number of losses by the team for the 3 years before each became head coach

Fir3 L - number of losses the first three years as head coach

Improv - The improvement of each stat

Coach Team Pri3 % Fir3 % Improv Pri3 L Fir3 L Improv
Saban MSU 0.471 0.543 0.072 18 16 2
Saban LSU 0.471 0.684 0.214 18 12 6
Saban Ala 0.595 0.805 0.210 15 8 7
Kelly ND 0.432 0.718 0.286 21 11 10
Swinney Cle 0.636 0.604 -0.032 16 19 -3
Dantonio MSU 0.400 0.564 0.164 21 17 4
Harbaugh UM 0.526 0.718 0.192 18 11 7

(I am assuming UM losses the bowl game).

Harbaugh is close to the middle in improvement of winning % (4th best) and above average in reducing the number of losses (tied for 2nd best).

And, as you can see above, Harbaugh is in the discussion with Saban and Swinney (two great coaches, IMO), not as good as Kelly (at best a very good coach, IMO) and better than Dantonio (a very good but not great coach, IMO).

Seems like Harbaugh is at a minimum a very good coach and very possibly a great coach.