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Date Title Body
11/16/2018 - 1:45pm IIRC, that game was…

IIRC, that game was something like 34-12 before backups came in and Ball State scored 2 late touchdowns.

Also, that 2006 Michigan team was not overrated.  It was the 2006 Michigan coaching staff that was overrated.

11/16/2018 - 1:32pm *has had since 2017.

*has had since 2017.

11/16/2018 - 1:30pm Sadly for recruiting 4/5…

Sadly for recruiting some 4/5 stars and happily in every other way, Harbaugh's faith seems to be a personal choice he keeps private, not something he views as a tool for recruiting (as some southern coaches do).

11/15/2018 - 4:42pm I think the worry on the…

I think the worry on the board is that he's looking around without the coaches' encouragement to do so.

11/15/2018 - 3:36pm Bredeson and Gentry were…

Bredeson and Gentry were both on Mel Kiper's most recent Top 10 draftable players at their respective positions.  That's the only reason I included Bredeson (and I forgot about Gentry being on Kiper's list, but I just don't see him as an early entry candidate).

11/15/2018 - 3:27pm Gary: 100%

Bush: 99%

Long…

Gary: 100%

Bush: 99%

Long/Hill: 50-55% each?

Bredeson: ??

Khaleke: ??

Onwenu: ???

Patterson: Unnamed source emails say 5%?

That's 8, but a few seem like a real stretch.

11/15/2018 - 10:20am I hope so, but football over…

I hope so, but football over the past 2 years should have taught M fans to be cautious of early season results.  After 2017's Florida game, we were thinking possible Big Ten championship.  After 2018's Notre Dame game, a loud minority of the blog wanted Harbaugh gone.  After North Carolina, we'll know more.

11/14/2018 - 12:51pm My completely uneducated…

My completely uneducated guess is if he can put 2-3 games of quality tape against the OTs of Ohio State, Alabama, and Clemson, he'll go Top 10, and might push for Top 5.

11/13/2018 - 11:06am I'm definitely enjoying it. …

I'm definitely enjoying it.  I just worry that the OSU narrative of "this guy just has a vendetta out for Urban" dilutes impact of the story.

11/13/2018 - 10:00am Got it.  That makes much…

Got it.  That makes much more sense. +1 for admitting a mistake on the internet.

11/13/2018 - 9:58am My key takeaway: McMurphy…

My key takeaway: McMurphy smells blood in the water re: Urban.

Also, why does he seem to concentrate his reporting on Urban Meyer's programs? Everything I've seen from him this year is Meyer-related?

11/12/2018 - 11:32am False.  Per S&P+, Illinois…

False.  Per S&P+, Illinois and Rutgers both have triple-digit rankings in FBS.  The SEC's lowest rated team is Vanderbilt, at #83.

To put more perspective on the difference in quality between mid-to-lower tier teams, Big10 West Champion Northwestern is ranked above only 2 SEC teams in S&P, Arkansas and Vanderbilt.

11/12/2018 - 11:00am What's wrong with this take?…

What's wrong with this take?  Higher-performing bottom teams are part of the reason the SEC has a shot to get 2 teams in the playoffs every year.

11/12/2018 - 10:56am If both Harrison and…

If both Harrison and Karlaftis commit to Michigan, does that mean a lower-priority current commit will get processed out of the class?

11/08/2018 - 9:35pm Connelly's Resume S&P+…

Connelly's Resume S&P+ weights Margin of Victory very heavily--really way too heavily--to be reliable.  I'm not a Notre Dame fan, but going 9-0 against their schedule is better than the 18th best resume in the country.

11/08/2018 - 9:33pm So, this rating comparison…

So, this rating comparison isn't really fair to the committee, since wins and losses are obviously the most important input variable to the committee, but in some of the computer models are not even considered.  So the analysis is flawed.  Matching the CFP rankings with ESPN's strength of record measurement would be a more sound method to analyze bias in the rankings.

11/07/2018 - 3:00pm Wow!!!  That is, I was going…

Wow!!!  That is, I was going to say great news, but that doesn't seem quite appropriate to describe an election victory of a sexual assault victim.  I'll say this is an encouraging step in the right direction for Michigan State.

11/07/2018 - 1:20pm I think this all works out…

I think this all works out in the end. LSU would be jumped by WVU and OSU both if they are 12-1 conference champs and LSU is 10-2.  However, if the "4 best teams" is really the overall criteria, then Michigan should have been in the playoff in 2016.  Only Alabama, Clemson, and OSU were better per Las Vegas.

11/07/2018 - 10:45am Alabama won't jump a 1-loss…

Alabama won't jump a 1-loss Big 12 of Big Ten team that wins their conference.  They only made it over OSU last year because OSU had 2 losses.

11/06/2018 - 2:24pm Before I look... Michigan…

Before I look... Michigan State?

11/06/2018 - 2:18pm It's both.  Southern states…

It's both.  Southern states and California far outpace rust belt states in production of NFL talent, but the recruiting rankings over-represent these states in NFL-talent projections. 

For example, in 2018, FL had 53 players ranked in the 247 Top 300 composite.  MI had 4 players.  That's a ratio of 13:1.  The actual NFL draft in 2018 included 36 players from FL high schools and 6 from MI.  That's a ratio of 6:1.  So yes, FL produces much more talent than MI on a yearly basis.  However, it's also true that recruiting sites over-rate the volume of that talent, because the scouts are more likely to see/discover a 3/4-star type recruit if he's playing against 3/4/5 star competition regularly.  A kid from Miami Northwestern is going to be scouted way more than a kid playing at Muskegon.

11/06/2018 - 2:07pm No, he's not.  The data…

No, he's not.  The data aggregation is good, but the analysis extracted from the data needs improvement. A simple average would be an improvement on the current analysis, which simply relies on counting.  When middle school math would be an improvement on the end product, the end product needs improving.

11/04/2018 - 3:30pm Sagarin is pretty outdated…

Sagarin is pretty outdated at this point.  S&P and FPI are much better team strength measurements than Sagarin.

11/04/2018 - 3:23pm Yes.

Yes.

10/26/2018 - 6:27pm I'm not sure you realize…

I'm not sure you realize this, but football is a team sport.  Under-recruited Individual players can be good and the team's record can still be mediocre.  If Russell Bellomy was starting at QB, Michigan's record might be 5-3 now, and 3-star Chase Winovich would still be playing at an All-America level.

10/26/2018 - 2:53pm This is the point--Harbaugh…

This is the point--Harbaugh and staff know talent more than the guys paid to evaluate high school talent.  If you click through those 2016 and 2017 recruiting classes, the hit rate on those 3-stars (and even lower rated 4-stars like Devin Bush) is incredible.  It gives context to the composite class rankings on 247.  For instance, in 2019 Michigan's composite team ranking is #9, but the 247 team ranking is #3.

10/24/2018 - 11:28am Fromm is not close to the…

Fromm is not close to the caliber of QB prospect that Tua and Haskins are.  Fromm will be lucky to still be the full-time starter next year.  Tua and Haskins could go 1/2 overall.

10/24/2018 - 10:40am I think this is all part of…

I think this is all part of Harbaugh's master plan to keep Shea another year. 

/s 

10/23/2018 - 3:38pm I think Shea comes back…

I think Shea comes back unless he A) goes on a tear the rest of the season, or B) Looks at the 2020 QB class and decides he's better off throwing against the 2019 guys.  Right now, though, I think he's a 3rd rounder at best.  6'2" is shorter than average for a QB, he's got a really accurate arm but not a cannon, and his decision-making is not great yet.  If his decision-making improves in Year 2 of a pro-style offense, then he might leap into the 1st round.

10/23/2018 - 10:07am Jose Mourinho was the first…

Jose Mourinho was the first name I thought of when I saw this report.  Assuming there is some truth to this report--and I believe the original source was Herbstreit, not FootballScoop--Urban's pattern with his teams would mirror Mourinho's (albeit with slightly longer tenures for Meyer).

10/22/2018 - 5:08pm I'd prefer Iowa over Purdue,…

I'd prefer Iowa over Purdue, just because I think Ferentz versus Don Brown is a blowout in a way that Brohm versus Brown is not.  I can't see Iowa getting more than 14-17 points against Michigan (barring something crazy like 4-5 turnovers from the offense).  I can see Purdue scoring in the 20s.

10/22/2018 - 4:54pm When was Michigan last…

When was Michigan last favored in Columbus? 2004?

10/18/2018 - 3:39pm I mean, if he's going to…

I mean, if he's going to take the rest of the season off anyways, why not play the first play against Sparty and commit the most Uber-targeting QB hit possible?  Then walk off the field like Marcus Hall, with hundreds--possibly even thousands--of Sparty fans screaming as he leaves the field.

Edit: Apparently I need the /s.

10/18/2018 - 2:52pm That is a pretty liberal…

That is a pretty liberal definition of "hate".  All I did is note that UMBig11's "insider information" tidbits he gave yesterday and today are completely contradictory.

I also don't like speculative "insider info" that could be construed by some as negative towards a player unless it's 100% true.  For example, back when UMBig11 and another insider starting posting information before the 2016 season, there was a rumor started by one of them that Jabrill Peppers and possibly other DBs had been suspended for a half, a quarter, or a whole game against Hawaii.  It was completely untrue, but it got back to Jabrill and he felt compelled to dismiss the rumor himself on Twitter.

10/18/2018 - 2:29pm Nice work by UMBig11 here:…

Nice work by UMBig11 here: now no matter what happens with Gary, he will be correct and claim to validate his insider credentials.

10/17/2018 - 5:23pm Most mock drafts I see have…

Most mock drafts I see have 5-6 DL in the first 10 picks.  It's an insanely talented DL class without any generational-type offensive skill poistion players and no surefire O-lineman.  He can be behind Bosa and Oliver and still go Top 5.

10/17/2018 - 5:20pm There are several (30-32)…

There are several (30-32) NFL GMs who disagree with you on Rashan being ready for the NFL.

10/17/2018 - 5:19pm Check Chase Winovich's stats…

Check Chase Winovich's stats with Gary on the field versus Gary off the field.  You'll notice a difference.

10/16/2018 - 11:03am There is actually a lot of…

There is actually a lot of data in college football if every single play is a distinct event.

10/16/2018 - 11:02am It ignores MoV entirely. …

It ignores MoV entirely.  ESPN's strength of record assesses the quality of opponent using their own advanced analytics formula, but assesses the resume only using wins and losses.  Their strength of record Top Ten is:

1. Ohio State

2. Notre Dame

3. LSU

8. Michigan

33. Penn State

10/16/2018 - 9:25am I agree that Bill C's resume…

I agree that Bill C's resume S&P isn't yet a great measure of accomplishment.  ESPN's strength of record is a much better measure of the value of a team's record.

10/15/2018 - 1:51pm My completely uneducated…

My completely uneducated guess is that Milton was in the game for recruiting purposes, to show the 30-odd recruits on the sideline that they can play in big-time games as true freshmen.  If Patterson and McCaffrey were both out, I think Peters would be the next QB up.

10/10/2018 - 3:25pm The storm originated in the…

The storm originated in the Caribbean, so instead of going all the way across the Atlantic, it only travelled the ~250 miles north through the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall.  I live in Tampa and I didn't hear about it till Monday either.

10/10/2018 - 11:45am No, but the takes will be…

No, but the takes will be annoying (for a few days) if Michigan loses.  Otherwise, it's not even in the top third of most important games this season.  Think of it this way--if you had the choice to trade a Wisconsin loss for a win against any of MSU, PSU, OSU, or Notre Dame, would you take it?  I would rather lose to Wisky than any of those other 4 teams.

10/09/2018 - 10:44pm Now at $69k.  Nice.

Now at $69k.  Nice.

10/09/2018 - 4:47pm Everyone who can--please…

Everyone who can--please consider donating.  Especially now that the initial monetary goal has been reached, I would imagine Ace will be moved by the number at the bottom (number of people donating) as much as by the top number.  Even if you only give $5, it will help reach a target of 1,000 people donating--which would be an incredible testament to the MGoBlog community.

10/08/2018 - 4:11pm They did NOT beat Michigan…

They did NOT beat Michigan in 2012.

10/01/2018 - 3:31pm Home game.  Michigan will be…

Home game.  Michigan will be fine.

09/25/2018 - 3:35pm "Rarely rates players…

"Rarely rates players accurately" is untrue.  In aggregate, it is a good proxy for a college team's talent level.

09/25/2018 - 1:00pm S&P actually does count…

S&P actually does count special teams.