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Date Title Body
12/11/2018 - 9:14pm It's free, it's crowd…

It's free, it's crowd-sourcing, and I can't think of a more educated commentariat from which to seek advice.  It's not a terrible idea, as long as the OP seeks out opinions from other sources as well.

12/07/2018 - 2:49pm The FBI scandal, and any…

The FBI scandal, and any nonzero impact it has on cleaning up basketball recruiting, will help more than Iggy starting.

12/07/2018 - 2:47pm Yep.  The hiring of the AD,…

Yep.  The hiring of the AD, in my opinion, is much more egregious than hiring Freeze.  Hugh Freeze had underlings pay for football players to come to Ole Miss, and paid for women to spend time with him.  Ian McCaw ignored many women being hurt, severely, because he liked being in charge of a school with a good football team.  There is a huge difference between the two men.

12/03/2018 - 2:42pm I think the insider-ish…

I think the insider-ish scuttle is Mayfield at LT, Runyan at RT.

12/03/2018 - 12:01pm I was thinking the same.  He…

I was thinking the same.  He would be a great D-line coach if/when Mattison retires.  Of course, that might be too awkward for him to come back.  But I would love him in that role.

11/30/2018 - 1:11pm Football Scoop is also the…

Football Scoop is also the website that "reported" Harbaugh is never coming to Michigan.  They are not ChatSports bad, but they don't report, they throw up wild guesses on their website and pretend to have inside knowledge if it turns out to be true.

In other news, I can confidently report that Harbaugh will be out by 2040.

11/29/2018 - 9:09pm Dave Portnoy specifically is…

Dave Portnoy specifically is toxic "bro" hell...  Although I wouldn't really call him a "bro" because he definitely doesn't even lift.

Only PFT, Big Cat, and Ria are entertaining on that site.

11/29/2018 - 2:00pm I think the poster means the…

I think the poster means the process of paying players is not systemic at Michigan like it is at other schools.  Coaches may have plausible deniability, but know exactly what's going on at some of the more notorious schools. 

For instance, look at Kirby Smart and Georgia.  Kirby's first full recruiting class represented a significant uptick from any Richt class in the past decade.  Hugh Freeze's classes at Ole Miss are another example.  Rogue bagmen and boosters are extant at probably every P5 school, but some coaches seem to fully embrace that part of recruiting, whereas other coaches appear to do their best to recruit by the rules.

11/29/2018 - 11:53am He was the best freshman on…

He was the best freshman on the floor last night playing against a team with 2 projected lottery picks.  So at this point, I would say yes.

11/27/2018 - 10:49am Really?  This qualifies as …

Really?  This qualifies as "huge"?

11/27/2018 - 9:09am Aside from the injection of…

Aside from the injection of politics (Trumpism), the poster makes a good point.  Nate Silver knows small sample sizes produce weird results, and knows better than to call anything "the worst" before it has enough data to be appropriately judged.

11/27/2018 - 9:06am Predictive models don't work…

Predictive models don't work for tournament selection, which is based on prior results, and (rightly so) heavily weighted towards wins and losses over points per possession.

11/26/2018 - 11:56am Sending a message to…

Sending a message to underachieving/highly-touted recruits makes some sense.  However, I watched the game on Saturday.  WR (Nico/DPJ specifically) was the one group that looked like they belonged on the field with OSU on Saturday.

11/26/2018 - 9:00am This is the most correct…

This is the most correct take I've read.  Brown's defense dominates the spread offenses that are primarily designed to run the ball.  The huge flaw in the defense is when it faces a pro-level quarterback with talent and depth at WR/TEs/RBs with receiving ability.  Penn State last year with Gesicki, Hamilton, and Barkley.  OSU this year.  FSU in the bowl game, to a lesser extent.

My one hope is that Haskins goes pro and OSU reverts to the "old" OSU of the last few years with Tate Martell.

11/20/2018 - 11:08am I don't think Notre Dame…

I don't think Notre Dame would hire him anymore after his Ohio State tenure.  As much as I love to hate Notre Dame, they actually take their academics seriously and would not invite the embarrassment Urban would eventually bring to their program.

11/19/2018 - 3:45pm I'm not.  As long as UM…

I'm not.  As long as UM keeps recruiting and developing the D-line like it has, the CBs will be fine.  Watching Michigan play defense this year, I think both current corners are a bit overrated by their insane advanced-PFF stats.

Don't get me wrong, I think both Long and Hill are all-conference type players, and Long might be a borderline 3rd-team All-America type of player.  But the PFF and other advanced stats say those guys are 2 of the best CBs of the past 5 years in college football.

11/18/2018 - 7:54pm Thank god there are a few…

Thank god there are a few people on this site who understand how Vegas works w.r.t. sports betting.

11/18/2018 - 7:52pm Yes, for luck.

However,…

Yes, for luck.

However, according to the betting market, it was a half point too low.  Spread already moved to 4.

11/18/2018 - 7:50pm I've done this a few times…

I've done this a few times in the past.  The winning $$$ doesn't really help, but it's way worse not doing it because I sit there thinking "Crap, I should at least be winning money right now."

11/18/2018 - 7:14pm I think OSU was -3.5 against…

I think OSU was -3.5 against Clemson in 2016.  They were (somehow) 6.5pt underdogs to Oregon in the 2014 championship game, which I believe is the last time the Buckeyes were underdogs.  They were favored in both Oklahoma games (in 16/17)--those are the only games I could see them being underdogs since that championship game against Oregon.

11/18/2018 - 6:16pm I think the rain/poor always…

I think the rain/poor weather always hurts the better team because it randomizes the outcome more than a normal game.  And for the first time in over a decade, the better team is clearly Michigan.

11/16/2018 - 1:45pm IIRC, that game was…

IIRC, that game was something like 34-12 before backups came in and Ball State scored 2 late touchdowns.

Also, that 2006 Michigan team was not overrated.  It was the 2006 Michigan coaching staff that was overrated.

11/16/2018 - 1:32pm *has had since 2017.

*has had since 2017.

11/16/2018 - 1:30pm Sadly for recruiting 4/5…

Sadly for recruiting some 4/5 stars and happily in every other way, Harbaugh's faith seems to be a personal choice he keeps private, not something he views as a tool for recruiting (as some southern coaches do).

11/15/2018 - 4:42pm I think the worry on the…

I think the worry on the board is that he's looking around without the coaches' encouragement to do so.

11/15/2018 - 3:36pm Bredeson and Gentry were…

Bredeson and Gentry were both on Mel Kiper's most recent Top 10 draftable players at their respective positions.  That's the only reason I included Bredeson (and I forgot about Gentry being on Kiper's list, but I just don't see him as an early entry candidate).

11/15/2018 - 3:27pm Gary: 100%

Bush: 99%

Long…

Gary: 100%

Bush: 99%

Long/Hill: 50-55% each?

Bredeson: ??

Khaleke: ??

Onwenu: ???

Patterson: Unnamed source emails say 5%?

That's 8, but a few seem like a real stretch.

11/15/2018 - 10:20am I hope so, but football over…

I hope so, but football over the past 2 years should have taught M fans to be cautious of early season results.  After 2017's Florida game, we were thinking possible Big Ten championship.  After 2018's Notre Dame game, a loud minority of the blog wanted Harbaugh gone.  After North Carolina, we'll know more.

11/14/2018 - 12:51pm My completely uneducated…

My completely uneducated guess is if he can put 2-3 games of quality tape against the OTs of Ohio State, Alabama, and Clemson, he'll go Top 10, and might push for Top 5.

11/13/2018 - 11:06am I'm definitely enjoying it. …

I'm definitely enjoying it.  I just worry that the OSU narrative of "this guy just has a vendetta out for Urban" dilutes impact of the story.

11/13/2018 - 10:00am Got it.  That makes much…

Got it.  That makes much more sense. +1 for admitting a mistake on the internet.

11/13/2018 - 9:58am My key takeaway: McMurphy…

My key takeaway: McMurphy smells blood in the water re: Urban.

Also, why does he seem to concentrate his reporting on Urban Meyer's programs? Everything I've seen from him this year is Meyer-related?

11/12/2018 - 11:32am False.  Per S&P+, Illinois…

False.  Per S&P+, Illinois and Rutgers both have triple-digit rankings in FBS.  The SEC's lowest rated team is Vanderbilt, at #83.

To put more perspective on the difference in quality between mid-to-lower tier teams, Big10 West Champion Northwestern is ranked above only 2 SEC teams in S&P, Arkansas and Vanderbilt.

11/12/2018 - 11:00am What's wrong with this take?…

What's wrong with this take?  Higher-performing bottom teams are part of the reason the SEC has a shot to get 2 teams in the playoffs every year.

11/12/2018 - 10:56am If both Harrison and…

If both Harrison and Karlaftis commit to Michigan, does that mean a lower-priority current commit will get processed out of the class?

11/08/2018 - 9:35pm Connelly's Resume S&P+…

Connelly's Resume S&P+ weights Margin of Victory very heavily--really way too heavily--to be reliable.  I'm not a Notre Dame fan, but going 9-0 against their schedule is better than the 18th best resume in the country.

11/08/2018 - 9:33pm So, this rating comparison…

So, this rating comparison isn't really fair to the committee, since wins and losses are obviously the most important input variable to the committee, but in some of the computer models are not even considered.  So the analysis is flawed.  Matching the CFP rankings with ESPN's strength of record measurement would be a more sound method to analyze bias in the rankings.

11/07/2018 - 3:00pm Wow!!!  That is, I was going…

Wow!!!  That is, I was going to say great news, but that doesn't seem quite appropriate to describe an election victory of a sexual assault victim.  I'll say this is an encouraging step in the right direction for Michigan State.

11/07/2018 - 1:20pm I think this all works out…

I think this all works out in the end. LSU would be jumped by WVU and OSU both if they are 12-1 conference champs and LSU is 10-2.  However, if the "4 best teams" is really the overall criteria, then Michigan should have been in the playoff in 2016.  Only Alabama, Clemson, and OSU were better per Las Vegas.

11/07/2018 - 10:45am Alabama won't jump a 1-loss…

Alabama won't jump a 1-loss Big 12 of Big Ten team that wins their conference.  They only made it over OSU last year because OSU had 2 losses.

11/06/2018 - 2:24pm Before I look... Michigan…

Before I look... Michigan State?

11/06/2018 - 2:18pm It's both.  Southern states…

It's both.  Southern states and California far outpace rust belt states in production of NFL talent, but the recruiting rankings over-represent these states in NFL-talent projections. 

For example, in 2018, FL had 53 players ranked in the 247 Top 300 composite.  MI had 4 players.  That's a ratio of 13:1.  The actual NFL draft in 2018 included 36 players from FL high schools and 6 from MI.  That's a ratio of 6:1.  So yes, FL produces much more talent than MI on a yearly basis.  However, it's also true that recruiting sites over-rate the volume of that talent, because the scouts are more likely to see/discover a 3/4-star type recruit if he's playing against 3/4/5 star competition regularly.  A kid from Miami Northwestern is going to be scouted way more than a kid playing at Muskegon.

11/06/2018 - 2:07pm No, he's not.  The data…

No, he's not.  The data aggregation is good, but the analysis extracted from the data needs improvement. A simple average would be an improvement on the current analysis, which simply relies on counting.  When middle school math would be an improvement on the end product, the end product needs improving.

11/04/2018 - 3:30pm Sagarin is pretty outdated…

Sagarin is pretty outdated at this point.  S&P and FPI are much better team strength measurements than Sagarin.

11/04/2018 - 3:23pm Yes.

Yes.

10/26/2018 - 6:27pm I'm not sure you realize…

I'm not sure you realize this, but football is a team sport.  Under-recruited Individual players can be good and the team's record can still be mediocre.  If Russell Bellomy was starting at QB, Michigan's record might be 5-3 now, and 3-star Chase Winovich would still be playing at an All-America level.

10/26/2018 - 2:53pm This is the point--Harbaugh…

This is the point--Harbaugh and staff know talent more than the guys paid to evaluate high school talent.  If you click through those 2016 and 2017 recruiting classes, the hit rate on those 3-stars (and even lower rated 4-stars like Devin Bush) is incredible.  It gives context to the composite class rankings on 247.  For instance, in 2019 Michigan's composite team ranking is #9, but the 247 team ranking is #3.

10/24/2018 - 11:28am Fromm is not close to the…

Fromm is not close to the caliber of QB prospect that Tua and Haskins are.  Fromm will be lucky to still be the full-time starter next year.  Tua and Haskins could go 1/2 overall.

10/24/2018 - 10:40am I think this is all part of…

I think this is all part of Harbaugh's master plan to keep Shea another year. 

/s 

10/23/2018 - 3:38pm I think Shea comes back…

I think Shea comes back unless he A) goes on a tear the rest of the season, or B) Looks at the 2020 QB class and decides he's better off throwing against the 2019 guys.  Right now, though, I think he's a 3rd rounder at best.  6'2" is shorter than average for a QB, he's got a really accurate arm but not a cannon, and his decision-making is not great yet.  If his decision-making improves in Year 2 of a pro-style offense, then he might leap into the 1st round.