2018-2020 recruiting Hits and misses
Just a quick list of guys who were hits based on how they performed compared to their 247 rankings and guys that were misses. Obviously still early for a lot of 2020 guys though. I just put them on the list if they were highly rated and haven’t seen the field yet or seem to have been passed by younger guys like Moore and McBurrows.
2018:
Hits:
Hutchinson 112
McGrone 118
Mayfield 268
Gray 700
Schoonmaker 796
Haskins 975
Bell 1473(!)
Misses:
Mustapha 168
Sims 170
Milton 204
2019:
Hits:
McNamara 268
Ojabo 314
All 346
Turner 400
Sainristil 595
Misses:
Rumler 174
Perry 200
Solomon 223
Q Johnson 316
2020:
Hits:
Zinter 265
Wilson 354
Hill-Green 393
Jenkins 513
Misses:
Seldon 161
Green-Warren 190
Bonus 2021 hits:
Moore 510
Anthony 528
McBurrows 555
December 8th, 2021 at 3:10 PM ^
Junior Colsen?
December 8th, 2021 at 3:19 PM ^
Colson is a top 100 player. My list is guys who have either out performed their ranking or under performed. Hutch was highly rated at 112 but is playing like a 5 star. Does not mean that Colson might not be on this list in a couple years if we looked again.
December 8th, 2021 at 3:28 PM ^
Fair but then I am not sure that McGrone significantly outperformed his ranking, especially since his time was cut short at UM. I think we probably got about what we expected, no?
December 8th, 2021 at 4:13 PM ^
Very bullish about McGrone coming off surgery and spending a year in the Belichick redshirt program. Pats will need some young blood at LB. Hoping for another M success in Foxboro.
December 8th, 2021 at 4:38 PM ^
I see Nordin was moved from IR to the practice squad. That is not a bad thing at all for Quin at this point. If the Pats don't want you, you're released.
December 8th, 2021 at 5:10 PM ^
Sure, he has potential and a lot of talent but he wasn't that good at Michigan. Certainly didn't exceed expectations by any means. He couldn't beat out a walk-on (Glasgow) in his second year and then played...decently, let's say, but he played...for one of the worst defenses Michigan has ever had in an abbreviated season in his third year.
December 8th, 2021 at 3:12 PM ^
Guys who have surprised me: Turner, Haskins, Gray. Cade too I guess but that has more to do with the expected depth chart.
Guys who I expected more from: Rumler, Q Johnson.
December 8th, 2021 at 4:29 PM ^
I thought Rumler was going to be the next great Michigan lineman. He sounded can't-miss.
December 8th, 2021 at 6:01 PM ^
He might not necessarily be a real miss. He could be a good guard but Zinter and Keegan are elite.
December 8th, 2021 at 7:34 PM ^
Yeah, similar to Kalis. Sounded like can't miss. Wonder if Rumler would have played on those 2013-2015ish teams that Kalis was able to play on.
December 8th, 2021 at 3:14 PM ^
I will say Michigan, as of the last 5 years or so, has been outstanding finding diamonds in the rough. They hit more times then I can ever remember. I believe we've hit more on unknowns than on 5 star players. Our history with five stars is shaky for some reason. Makes me smile to think what Spurlock, Burke, Alexander and Dent will become!!
December 8th, 2021 at 3:16 PM ^
I don't think its fair to call players a miss from 2019 and 2020 classes as misses unless they've already left the program. Players take longer to develop and they've only had a couple years on campus. People can make jumps in their 3rd and 4th years to become significant contributors. Some of the "hits" you mark have done exactly that.
December 8th, 2021 at 3:20 PM ^
Yeah wouldn’t qualify Seldon or Green-Warren as misses…
December 8th, 2021 at 3:22 PM ^
That’s why I said as a disclaimer that it’s still early for some of the 2020 (and 2019 I guess) guys to be called misses but it’s just based on how things appear at the moment. If someone is not playing and true freshmen are, it’s a strong indicator.
December 8th, 2021 at 4:18 PM ^
Maybe. And maybe some guys are just late-bloomers. There is really no reason to include the "misses" or label these 19-20 kids as such before they've had a fair chance to grow and develop. If you wanted to do this for 2015-2017, I'd be on more on board.
Bottom line: I believe kids deserve more time before we label them as a "miss."
December 8th, 2021 at 6:13 PM ^
Look at some of the DBs now.
December 8th, 2021 at 3:28 PM ^
yea like think of the conversation around Gray 6 months ago
December 8th, 2021 at 3:33 PM ^
I think it was clarified that "miss" in this context just meant that players from subsequent classes had passed them. It did not relegate them to that status in perpetuity.
Any Safety in a class ahead of Rod Moore has been passed, but will very likely have a chance to make their mark in '22. Some of the LBs who signed with or before NH-G & Colson will also have a chance next year, assuming Ross doesn't take a 6th year.
Less chance of that with CBs, as I believe Gray & Turner will start again next year, and Will is coming in to lead a strong group of DB croots. It got late early for any '19 or '20 CBs who haven't made a mark already! I believe we'll see an exodus after Signing Day...
On O we don't seem really overloaded at any position, so expect stability there...
December 8th, 2021 at 4:17 PM ^
Odds of Eamonn Dennis reuniting with Don Brown at UMASS? I'd say pretty good! Guessing Amherst is going to be Ann Arbor east via xfer portal.
December 8th, 2021 at 3:24 PM ^
Seldon and Green-Warren have a ton of potential and might contribute big time in the next couple years
December 8th, 2021 at 3:39 PM ^
Maybe. But fact is they were both high 4 stars who are 2 years in and not getting on the field while guys like Rod Moore and McBurrows are as true freshmen. As I’ve said before, the hits are easy to call for the young players, the misses are not, but it’s just based on how things are now. People seem to be getting upset about this as if I’m saying they will never amount to anything, which was not my intent.
But also keep in mind that Michigan is going to be 10-12 spots over the 85 limit so you are going to see some guys hit the portal who have not been playing.
December 8th, 2021 at 4:46 PM ^
You've stated your position several times, spelling it out quite clearly. These people taking issue aren't failing to understand -- they just think some of your "miss" calls are invalid. I agree. A miss should be someone who failed to live up to expectations, whose skills and performance did not develop as was hoped.
You wanted to increase the number of conclusions in your post so you reached on a few, but its harsh and premature to declare someone a miss for not playing much in their redshirt freshman season. You don't want to be premature, do you?
Also, getting stuck behind an excellent player doesn't necessarily mean someone turned out to be a miss. They still could have developed into a very good player.
December 8th, 2021 at 4:20 PM ^
Why does Green-Warren have a lot of potential? There hasn’t been a peep about him since he arrived here 2 years ago. He is limited athletically. (Ran a verified 4.67 forty)
December 8th, 2021 at 4:45 PM ^
Nikhai Hill-Green is limited athletically. Brad Hawkins is limited athletically. You don't have to be a speedster to succeed in McDonald's scheme. It's about technique and understanding zone coverage
December 8th, 2021 at 3:30 PM ^
Assuming a RS year, some of the 2019s were RS sophomores this year. You could make a good guess on their trajectories, but I'd still wait a year before declaring them a miss.
I think the 2020s are off-limits.
One other thing: Mustapha had "off field" issues. There's no telling what kind of player he would've become at Michigan without those. Not a hit for sure, but maybe not a *miss*.
Otherwise, I enjoy reviewing old lists of recruits, so thanks for posting this, OP.
December 8th, 2021 at 9:22 PM ^
It's unair to consider anyone a miss for other than football reasons -- off-field, cultural, or injuries.
That said, a transfer for off-field or cultural issues is a miss, no? There is a cost associated with it.
December 8th, 2021 at 3:32 PM ^
So happy Ojabo is better than Zach Harrison.
December 8th, 2021 at 4:42 PM ^
And its not even close.....that recruiting 'loss' actually worked out pretty damn well.
December 8th, 2021 at 6:09 PM ^
While this has turned out to be true and will assuredly be reflected in draft position come April, it's fair to speculate that Harrison might have performed better under Nua/McDonald, and lining up on the opposite side of Michigan's Heisman trophy finalist DE.
December 8th, 2021 at 3:33 PM ^
No idea how I posted here. Disregard.
December 8th, 2021 at 3:37 PM ^
I don't think we should call guys still competing for our teams misses...but that's just me.
December 8th, 2021 at 3:47 PM ^
I agree and was going to post the same thing
December 8th, 2021 at 3:38 PM ^
Good stuff. I think based on tape and the recruitment, some of these players were not exactly first or second choice options for Michigan. Sometimes those guys still work out of course. But it's fair to say that regardless of the recruiting rankings, Jalen Perry (processed by Georgia), Mike Morris (processed by Florida State) and Darion Green-Warren (late commit and only CB taller than 5-8) may have been more desperation plays than players the staff were truly high on. Joe Milton may have been a top 250 prospect but we didn't have much competition for him and actively tried to add a 2nd QB to the class. You get the point.
Mike Morris and Luke Schoonmaker have worked out. Vincent Gray is another. But most of the time these guys do not. This is not the same as unearthing exciting hidden gems like Hassan Haskins and Ronnie Bell. Kris Jenkins, Taylor Upshaw, Michael Barrett, Erick All, Mike Sainristil, Kechaun Bennett, T.J. Guy, Tristan Bounds, Andrel Anthony, and Rod Moore were all players Michigan clearly thought were very underrated.
December 8th, 2021 at 3:45 PM ^
derrick green
green warren
hill green
g green
g green
can we pick another color?
December 8th, 2021 at 7:24 PM ^
Tarik Black
December 8th, 2021 at 3:50 PM ^
I don't think you can look at guys who came in a year ago and consider them "misses". Michigan's corners played pretty well this year, and everyone thought Gray was going to be a black hole but instead he became a 3rd-team all conference guy. Calling guys misses after such a short time doesn't make any sense.
December 8th, 2021 at 3:55 PM ^
I think I’ve explained my system for “misses” several times now but if people don’t like it I guess it is what it is.
December 8th, 2021 at 4:19 PM ^
If Ojabo at 314 is a hit, then Q Johnson at 316 is not a miss. Your base assumption going in is they were not supposed to do much. Thus, 314s success is a pleasant surprise and hit. And 316's lack of it is just "meh".
December 8th, 2021 at 4:27 PM ^
314 is a 4 star, true. But Ojabo is going to be a first round pick after 3 years. That’s better than his ranking. 316 also a 4 star. They are in the same class. One guy is an All American type, the other has been on the field only for special teams. If it’s not clear why one would be a hit and the other isn’t, I don’t know what to tell you.
December 8th, 2021 at 4:35 PM ^
The problem is you could have EASILY started (yet another) thread where you talk about guys who have outplayed their rankings without also claiming young players still fighting for their team as misses. Your "system" is bad and you should feel bad.
December 8th, 2021 at 4:04 PM ^
What's the deal with Green-Warren? It doesn't look like he played at all in 2020 or 2021.
December 8th, 2021 at 4:15 PM ^
I appreciate this work, but am strongly against labeling kids from 2019 "misses" at this point. 2018 turned out to be a great year, and mostly through the lower-rated guys, but it's unfair to those '19s and '20s to count any of them out, other than the guys that are transferring b/c they won't have the chance to prove themselves. So:
- Rumer is a transfer, and therefore a miss
- Perry was getting some buzz and is behind what turned out to be some very good players this year. Give him time.
- Solomon has played on special teams and is in a new system with some great players that were ahead of him. It's getting late early, but I'm not ready to call him a miss.
- Quinten Johnson went through a very tough injury, has been playing on ST, and was named scout team player of the week this year. Give him time in the new system.
It's WAAAAYYYY too early to start labeling 2020 kids as misses. Seldon and DGW have a new coach and a new system. Give them a chance.
And if we're talking 2021 hits and not including Donovan Edwards, what are we even doing?
December 8th, 2021 at 4:20 PM ^
My gosh, it’s like people don’t read at all. Edwards isn’t a hit because he’s a 5 star. He’s good, he’s supposed to be good. My list is guys who have played better than their rankings suggest, or who have not YET lived up to their ranking.
December 8th, 2021 at 4:38 PM ^
Actually, I do read. Very well. Your OP doesn't say anything about not including top-100 guys. And while 5-stars are supposed to be good, many of them don't pan out (and we've had particularly bad luck), and many that do don't show the promise DE has this season.
What all of these comments should be telling you is that perhaps it's inappropriate to label underclassmen as "misses" so early in their career. Many of these guys may still pan out. Some, like QJ, have had injury issues, and others may have been dealing with stuff that we don't know about.
Also, perhaps your definitions of "hit" and "miss" are unclear at best...if DE's performance so far doesn't make him a "hit," what would? It seems that being great should qualify as a "hit." Perhaps your language could use some tweaking, to "under-performing" or "over-performing" your expectations, instead of "hit" and "miss".
December 8th, 2021 at 6:15 PM ^
I agree it's probably a phrasing thing. Maybe "stock up" or "stock down" would better convey the point (i.e. overperforming or underperforming expectations).
And I still think that 4 and 5 stars can overperform (at least some of them). Impossible for R Gary to overperform b/c we expected the world. Edwards I think was really a 4.5 star and although he is not a star RB yet (mostly because of depth chart), the receiving skills and speed already make him a weapon as a true frosh. That is a slight overperform for me. He looks more like a top 20 guy to me at this stage.
December 8th, 2021 at 5:13 PM ^
Many stargazers here bitched at the time of the 2018 class, and yet it turned out great.
December 8th, 2021 at 7:24 PM ^
A little early to be calling some of these kids misses, no?
December 8th, 2021 at 10:58 PM ^
This post was a "miss".