UM #8 in preseason AP poll
August 15th, 2022 at 12:10 PM ^
Seems about right. I could justify us being a little bit higher, as a playoff team returning a lot of dudes, but tbh I'd rather be underestimated than overhyped
August 15th, 2022 at 2:01 PM ^
Yeah, seems about right. We're returning a lot of dudes...on offense. We lost a lot on defense though. Gotta expect a step back on that side of the ball. Hopefully, a step forward from the offense makes up for it.
August 15th, 2022 at 2:46 PM ^
Honestly, a step back maybe sure, but it is not going to be dramatic like some think, this will still be a solid defense. People are kind discounting improvements from returning guys like Smith, Colson, etc offsetting some of those losses.
August 15th, 2022 at 2:57 PM ^
I think the level of the step back will be like the one from the 2016 defense to 2017 (not saying the 2021 or 2022 defenses were/will be as good, just the size of the gap from one year to next). Everyone was worried about the defensive side of the ball going into 2017 after losing Peppers, Lewis, Charlton, Worley, Hill, Gedeon, Glasgow, Stribling but it turned out the 2017 defense more or so reloaded even if it was a step back from the 2016 D. It was the offensive side of the ball that was the issue that year.
August 15th, 2022 at 3:52 PM ^
Under Harbaugh good defense has been a constant even in years where there were significant talent losses or coaching changes. It it odd that people are all of sudden expecting that to change.
August 15th, 2022 at 11:18 PM ^
I think our D will be best in the B1G. I think our offense has a chance to be too.
I guess I'm saying, that I'd be ok slotting us in at #1 in the nation.
You think I'm crazy, but last year before the season, I predicted B1G champs and CFP berth, while others were saying 8-4 and "hoping" for 9-3. So, gotta go up from there!
Frankly, in the AP poll #s 5–9 are bunched together close enough that without any games so far, they are on equal footing, for all practical purposes. So, we could pretty quickly be top 4 or 5.
August 15th, 2022 at 5:03 PM ^
Right, I agree, hence just a step back. Not a leap, not a cratering, just a step.
It should still be a very solid unit. I like the players remaining.
But you don't lose the #2 pick all-everything edge, another first round edge talent, two five stars and your senior LB without taking a likely step back.
To the point others are making, I agree that it will likely be similar to the step back from 2016 to 2017 or from 2018 to 2019. Modest step back.
I haven't heard anyway talk about a major step back, but I feel optimistic that's not going to happen.
August 15th, 2022 at 2:41 PM ^
For those interested in how each AP voter chose:
https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/wp590z/ap_poll_voter_consistency_preseason/
August 15th, 2022 at 4:27 PM ^
Looks like our mode is 6. We’re only 8th because of a handful of outliers that voted us in the teens.
August 15th, 2022 at 6:39 PM ^
And if you think of one poll spot being worth 62 points above or below it's adjacent spots, there is essentially a three way tie for 6th, so that makes sense.
August 15th, 2022 at 5:00 PM ^
Of particular note is Nathan Baird of cleveland.com slotting us at #18. Nathan might still be a little butt hurt, and that makes my day!
So many have the Buckeyes #2 despite coming off a season with a defense that ranked No. 59 nationally in total defense and No. 38 in scoring defense. On top of that, the Buckeyes slotted 96th in pass defense (244.8 ypg) and 100th in opponent third down conversion percentage allowed (42.1%).
We pushed them around all day long, and the world is completely ignoring this due to an outstanding offense. Anyone that can slow them down and score consistently is capable of beating this team like Oregon and Michigan did last year.
August 15th, 2022 at 5:10 PM ^
Maybe my eyes are going bad, but I think the Syracuse guy has us at #18 and Baird has us at #9.
August 15th, 2022 at 6:44 PM ^
We'll, I think you're forgetting that Ohio State won't have to face down the monster of Utah's WR-turned-3rd-string-QB, or was it 4th string. Clearly it was he alone who could abuse Ohio State like that.
August 15th, 2022 at 6:50 PM ^
Pretty sure our defensive numbers were quite a bit worse in 2020 and then look what happened in 2021. They have talent which shines through more often than not. New coach should help as well.
And the offense is going to be bonkers again.
August 15th, 2022 at 6:47 PM ^
That's a cool chart. Looks like were in a pretty tight band between 5th and 8th. Few 4th place votes and a few outliers beyond 8th.
August 15th, 2022 at 12:11 PM ^
Utah & TAMU ahead of Michigan in this poll is interesting.
Lots of big games week 1 that could shift us up into the top five.
August 15th, 2022 at 12:15 PM ^
Its going to be really funny watching A&M still be a a 9-4 team with all that talent
August 15th, 2022 at 12:20 PM ^
Spending money on talent doesn't always result in championships. You can't* buy "heart" or "team chemistry".
Would like to see us maintain that Top 10 ranking all year. Get better every week.
* edited (thank you!)
August 15th, 2022 at 12:29 PM ^
... can't buy heart or team chemistry.
August 15th, 2022 at 12:30 PM ^
Look no further than LSU. They went 6-7 last year.
Sure, coaching change blah blah. But including 2022 here are there last 4 overall team 247 composite recruit rankings:
6, 4, 4, 7
Lol. That talent should win 8 games minimum even in the SEC.
August 15th, 2022 at 1:43 PM ^
Texan, remember the SEC plays 8 conference games. And, the usual OOC schedule is four auto wins in their OOC. So, an SEC team only needs to play .500 ball to have an 8-4 record at season’s end.
This year, LSU’s four OOC opponents are: 1) Florida State, 2) Southern University, 3) New Mexico, and 4) UAB. So, they should be 4-0 with their talent - and the “Fah-mah-Lee” culture that Kelly has been instilling.
A&M from unranked to Top 7… no SEC bias there. Clemson - yeah, let’s see whether “a little Dabo’ll do ya” - aka Brylcreem - circa 50’s and 70’s…
I’m fine with Michigan’s ranking. Post it in the locker room…
August 15th, 2022 at 1:10 PM ^
Still, I'd like to see us try.
August 15th, 2022 at 12:56 PM ^
Their talent is still young. They will probably be the new Mississippi State, but faster.
August 15th, 2022 at 2:05 PM ^
The talent is too young anyway. So yeah, they'll be 9-4. In fairness, their schedule is pretty brutal this year so they could be a top 10 team and still lose 3-4 games.
August 15th, 2022 at 12:35 PM ^
How do they think 10-3 Clemson is going to be so much better this year? Is D.J. Ukelele really gonna learn to play QB?
August 15th, 2022 at 12:38 PM ^
They brought back a lot. Their defense is supposed to be bonkers. But then again, the did lose Venables.
August 15th, 2022 at 12:41 PM ^
The defensive talent, especially on the defensive line is unreal so all it takes is that offense getting to competent and they will likely go undefeated. Utah being over Michigan isn't any kind of slight, that is going to be a really good team this year. ND over Michigan doesn't make a ton of sense but its a big enough gap to really get upset over flipping two spots.
August 16th, 2022 at 8:30 AM ^
ND at 5 is set only to setup a top 5 matchup week 1 with OSU.
August 15th, 2022 at 12:42 PM ^
He’s a top qb in my book based on just his last name 😂.
August 15th, 2022 at 2:09 PM ^
Is 10-3 that bad?
They lost by 7 to Georgia (much better than we did), they lost a 2OT on the road against a solid NC State team and they lost by ten to a good Pitt team.
The predictive metrics all had them top 10 last year. Not a stretch to think they'll be a little bit better, precisely because their QB play was so bad. If that position improves even to mediocre, they could be very good with that defense.
August 15th, 2022 at 3:07 PM ^
@TrueBlue2003
Clemson also beat BC, Georgia Tech, Syracuse and Louisville by less than 7 each. None of those four teams had a winning record.
If anything, Clemson was fortunate to get to 10-3.
August 15th, 2022 at 6:58 PM ^
Not according to the data. They were slightly unlucky per the data.
An easy measure of this is comparing ESPN's FPI which is a pure "quality" metric to their Strength of Record which only takes into account how impressive their W/L record is given the schedule, ie there is no margin of victory component in SOR.
Their strength of record was 13th. Their FPI was 8th. Meaning they were slightly better than their record would indicate.
As a sanity check their sagarin predictor had them ranked 10th. That's purely a predictive metric based only on scores as well.
But pretty much any way you look at it, they were a borderline top 10 team.
August 15th, 2022 at 12:12 PM ^
I like where we’re at in the poll, but as a designer, it hurts my feelings when the aspect ratio of the M is off (as it is in the poll - stretched vertically).
August 15th, 2022 at 12:15 PM ^
I wish they dropped all rankings until week 8/9 when you have a sample size. I know they are for tv ratings but they are pointless until midseason.
August 15th, 2022 at 12:31 PM ^
Not totally pointless as some of us do discuss it.
Truly pointless would mean no one paid any attention.
August 15th, 2022 at 1:22 PM ^
I might argue that truly pointless means that only losers pay attention, because they're unable to see when something is truly pointless.
August 15th, 2022 at 2:10 PM ^
You may have a point.
August 15th, 2022 at 1:04 PM ^
I'd rather we have something to talk about....
August 15th, 2022 at 1:09 PM ^
I wish I was a little bit taller.
August 15th, 2022 at 1:19 PM ^
Just take the 110 to the 105 then.
August 15th, 2022 at 1:36 PM ^
I wish I was a baller
August 15th, 2022 at 2:39 PM ^
I wish I had a girl who looked good...
Wait, don't tell my wife that!!!
August 15th, 2022 at 4:19 PM ^
Cause she'd call her?
August 15th, 2022 at 1:44 PM ^
I wish I was a baller
August 15th, 2022 at 2:11 PM ^
I wish I was a taller baller.
August 15th, 2022 at 12:22 PM ^
Odd with a new coach Notre Dame was voted top 5, and I don't think they even finish top 15.
August 15th, 2022 at 12:30 PM ^
It's for the Week 1 OSU matchup. They want a "top 5 matchup." They are ranked 5 in the same way that Michigan was ranked 7 for the Alabama game in 2012.
August 15th, 2022 at 12:35 PM ^
Sadly I have to agree with this.
I want OSU to lose that game, but I cant see that happening. All week they will talk about how OSU beat a top 5 team, are they the team to beat for the NC or will Alabama extend their legacy? These headlines are boring and pre written.
August 15th, 2022 at 4:25 PM ^
I actually can see ND winning this game. A) It's week 1. B) ND's defense is pretty good. maybe not good enough to stop OSU, but slow them down? C) OSU's defense hasn't proved anything to me yet. They stomped Sparty, but otherwise were torched by every ranked team they faced. As well as Minnesota.
I'm still expecting Ohio wins - but I definitely can see ND pulling it off.
August 15th, 2022 at 2:03 PM ^
Who is “they”? Is there a cabal of responders to the AP poll conspiring to maximize ratings for ….ABC