Klatt Says CFP Got it Wrong - Michigan Much Better than Clemson
In the 30 min video, he breaks down their SEC bias and how even TCU should be ranked ahead of Clemson.
The video is cued up to his Michigan comments:
November 2nd, 2022 at 11:26 AM ^
CFP refusing to see what everyone else see's..seems... the ACC is trash.
November 2nd, 2022 at 12:30 PM ^
He's a fine young lad that Joel Klatt
November 2nd, 2022 at 8:10 PM ^
Not only is he well spoken with week thought out positions, but he seems to do every one of his shows in one take.
November 2nd, 2022 at 12:30 PM ^
"One man's trash is another man's 4 seed."
-Confucius (499 bce)
November 2nd, 2022 at 12:56 PM ^
Klatt isn't alone. A lot of people who study metrics (e.g. check out Bill Connelly Twitter) and watch games basically feel this way:
November 2nd, 2022 at 3:07 PM ^
The CFP committee is setting it up for 2 SEC schools to make it if any conference champ has 1 loss.
November 2nd, 2022 at 9:37 PM ^
Only 2? It looks like they'd prefer to have 3. ESPN surely has been pushing the idea.
November 3rd, 2022 at 12:29 PM ^
They'd prefer to have all 4 cfp teams be SEC, but then it'd be too obvious they're just gloryhole polishers
November 2nd, 2022 at 3:14 PM ^
One element of all this is that Warde Manuel is on the committee and has to recuse himself from the M discussions.
November 2nd, 2022 at 11:26 AM ^
It'll all work itself out
November 2nd, 2022 at 11:54 AM ^
It still matters though — it’s set up right now for the possibility of two SEC teams in at the end, but not two Big Ten teams. It’s should really just be 2 of Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama and Michigan and OSU at the end the way things are right now.
November 2nd, 2022 at 12:00 PM ^
No, it doesn't matter. Not much anyways. There is so much more football to be played, including several of these teams playing each other. Every one of the top 6 will be in if they win out because OSU plays M and Tennessee plays UGA. Yes, I'm including TCU. Undefeated TCU will get in over one loss M and one loss UGA/Tennessee. Hell, last year undefeated Cincinnati got in over one loss media darling Notre Dame. It's all going to be fine.
November 2nd, 2022 at 12:28 PM ^
Hell, last year undefeated Cincinnati got in over one loss media darling Notre Dame.
Well, that's a little different because ND's one loss came to Cinci. There's really no way to justify putting in a one loss, non-conference-champion over the undefeated team that beat them. Closest example I could think of is us beating OSU and losing in the BTCG, and them putting in 11-1 OSU over the 12-1 M team that beat them. Just have a hard time seeing that happen...
November 2nd, 2022 at 4:36 PM ^
Like they did to PSU?
November 2nd, 2022 at 5:53 PM ^
That PSU team had 2 Ls and if I recall, the first was to a not-particularly-good non-conference opponent.
November 2nd, 2022 at 6:57 PM ^
Correct, they lost to 8-4 Pitt in the non-con (plus the 39 point loss to us, which isn't exactly great for a resume)...
November 2nd, 2022 at 1:14 PM ^
It does matter, because putting Clemson above M at this point, plus the ridiculous overrating of Clemson’s 3 “big wins” by slotting them into the end of the top 25, sets things up so that 1 loss Clemson gets in ahead of 1 loss Michigan (or TCU) which is absurd to anyone actually paying attention to the football being played so far.
Penn State would crush any of Clemson’s “big wins” and probably beat Clemson themselves. Hell, Maryland with Tua probably goes 2-1 at worst against the 3 “top 25” Clemson wins. And if you dig even slightly deeper, Clemson is in a dog fight with their “big wins” and needed some iffy officiating to survive Cuse. While Michigan dominated Penn State.
Neither Michigan nor Clemson have a great resume so far… but the idea that Clemson is better requires a massive overrating of the middle of the ACC and ignoring absolutely everything about the games as they actually played out.
November 2nd, 2022 at 3:14 PM ^
Klatt specifically addresses why rankings matter here at 23:13:
https://youtu.be/AdELvxc-9gU?t=1393
It matters because (flawed) poll logic moves teams up and down depending on where they start. It matters because you build a résumé based on where the teams on your schedule are ranked/perceived. It matters because national perception is tied to recruiting.
November 2nd, 2022 at 6:05 PM ^
Taulia, but I get your point, and agree.
November 2nd, 2022 at 12:04 PM ^
It matters because they ensured that Michigan's only shot is to go undefeated. If there is a close game between Tennessee and Georgia, we'll start hearing non stop about the possibility of 3 SEC teams in the playoff. ESPN will be in full force with the propaganda of it. They lose rights to the B1G and own the SEC network. Objectivity is not the purpose of the CFP committee, but agenda. There is no other way to look at it when you put in Clemson over Michigan. If ESPN could, they would be promoting 4 SEC teams. Michigan should not have to overcome agenda to get in. That being said, I'm a firm believer teams should have to win their conference to get in, which is the case for every conference other than the SEC and that's only because we hear a nonstop drumbeat of how good some second SEC team is. They had their shot and blew, but that doesn't matter to the comittee.
November 2nd, 2022 at 12:37 PM ^
I'm not disputing anyone's agenda, but Michigan has a quality win over James Franklin, that's about it. A one loss UM is not going to stack up against a one loss SEC team this year. Clemson has wins against 3 top 25 teams and FSU with Notre Dame this weekend. If we still had UCLA on the schedule this year then it would be a different story, but we screwed ourselves. It's going to be two SEC teams, Clemson and the BIG winner. I don't see any way around it.
November 2nd, 2022 at 12:48 PM ^
Blame Purdue- flip the results of the Syracuse/Maryland game's (umm, highly possible based on gameplay) and it's even harder to put Clemson ahead. Maryland is like the only 2 loss team that isn't ranked
November 2nd, 2022 at 12:52 PM ^
Clemson's wins are against trash vastly overrated teams. Do you honestly believe that PSU wouldn't thrash every team Clemson has played and Clemson, too?
November 2nd, 2022 at 3:18 PM ^
Penn State ain't done shit but lose close-ish to Ohio State and smoke Minnesota, which has a losing record playing in the B1G Ass Division. Yes, I honestly believe Penn State wouldn't thrash Syracuse, Clemson, and NC State, having already failed to thrash Purdue and North-fucking-western.
I'm certain Michigan could win the ACC with one hand tied behind its back, and would beat Clemson in a playoff game if given the chance, but right now the resumes aren't complete yet and right now Clemson has the better resume with wins over three ranked teams while Michigan has wins over Penn State, Maryland, and a whole lot of butt. Penn State MIGHT be the best of the teams that Michigan and Clemson have beaten. Might.
Hell, resume-wise, we're lucky to be ahead of TCU at the moment.
November 2nd, 2022 at 6:11 PM ^
I'll give you the Penn State-Purdue game but that NU game in the remnant of a hurricane didn't really show us much one way or the other.
November 2nd, 2022 at 8:23 PM ^
Maybe it's bias making me misremember but I feel like SOS is always discussed but ultimately doesn't end up being a factor. Except this year.....
November 2nd, 2022 at 12:53 PM ^
Clemson has wins against 3 top 25 teams
Literally zero teams on Clemson's schedule -- past AND future, including ND, NC, etc -- are ranked in SP+ ahead of three teams Michigan has already beaten (PSU, Maryland, Iowa) and two more upcoming teams (Illinois, OSU).
I know you were referring to AP or playoff rankings, not mathematically-based power rankings, but you can't justify one AP/playoff ranking by referring to other playoff/AP rankings.
I wish we hadn't cancelled UCLA either but the SOS narratives are out of control. Clemson has only played Furman and La Tech out of conference at this point so there is no argument that Michigan's OOC schedule should matter right now vis-a-vis Clemson.
November 2nd, 2022 at 1:00 PM ^
What about Illinois? What if Iowa runs the table? Too narrow of a focus. OSU will probably sneak in with a loss to UM if things go right, but not UM with the way they are ranking Clemson. Clemson most likely not losing any more. We will see.
November 2nd, 2022 at 1:22 PM ^
Klatt addresses the 3 top 25 win thing, and I think he’s right. All 3 of those teams are dubious inclusions in the top 25 - including ANY is questionable, but including all 3 smacks of an agenda to justify ranking Clemson above Michigan and TCU.
November 2nd, 2022 at 1:35 PM ^
If you compare just teams > 500, it's still Clemson 5-2, or 4-2, I don't remember exactly. That takes the rankings out of it, and also damns our schedule, as it should.
The ACC champion, with 1 loss or zero is getting in over Michigan with 1 loss to OSU, and should.
November 2nd, 2022 at 1:38 PM ^
And it's OK, you know. Assuming #1 is the best SEC team Georgia, #2 is us because we beat OSU, most likely #3 is Clemson #4 is TCU.
I don't know about you, but this is best case scenario. Clemson is almost perfectly built to lose to Michigan, and TCU is probably best built of the 4 to beat Georgia.
November 2nd, 2022 at 1:56 PM ^
If you compare just teams > 500, it's still Clemson 5-2, or 4-2
This is a bad metric. I'm assuming the 5th team here is the juggernaut Furman, who is 5-2. Iowa would be over .500 if they didn't have to play @Ohio St. (Nobody on Clemson's schedule thus far had a game that tough.)
I mean of course some ACC teams are going to end up over .500 -- they are trash who get to play other trash.
November 2nd, 2022 at 2:21 PM ^
This is the correct analysis, and basically shows why using records alone tells a very incomplete story. Just because those teams have winning records doesn't mean that they are strong teams. The fancystats exist for exactly this reason - to better assess how good a team actually is beyond W-L record and the record of teams they played.
November 2nd, 2022 at 2:34 PM ^
Of COURSE using records alone is an incomplete story. I swear 70% of the people on this board hug the word pedant like it's their long lost brother.
It's just one metric. But you know what one thing it tells us? Michigan has played 2 teams with a pulse. 2 of 8. Spin your analysis any way you want to, but we ain't played nobody.
November 2nd, 2022 at 3:20 PM ^
Michigan has played 2 teams with a pulse.
I assume you mean Maryland and Penn St? Power ranked ahead of anyone Clemson has played or will play. In Penn State's case, way above.
If you think Iowa doesn't have a pulse, fine. But SP+ has them ranked ahead of literally everyone on Clemson's schedule, past and future.
By this metric, Clemson will go 13-0 against teams with no pulse. Fortunate they didn't have to play Penn State. Very fortunate they don't have to go anywhere near Columbus.
"It's just one metric" -- yes, a completely worthless one.
November 2nd, 2022 at 4:46 PM ^
Ummm, how does a Notre Dame team that lost to Marshall and Stanford get mentioned among "quality wins"?
November 2nd, 2022 at 7:25 PM ^
Why? Michigan has better overall stats than any SEC team in terms of balance in total offense and defense and all the measurables that go into those numbers. Penn State crushed Auburn on the road, which says what, exactly, about the SEC?
I mean Georgia and Alabama are strong. But Alabama has not only been beaten by Tennessee by a long field goal but nearly lost two other games, away at Texas and at home to Texas A&M, which was beaten by App State. Please. If you want to crown the SEC as the best in the land, which apparently football pundits want to do without question, go ahead. I will withhold judgment about their superiority until its proven on the field.
This Michigan team is the most complete in a long time. And it's capable of beating any team in the nation. I believe that with all sincerity.
November 2nd, 2022 at 8:12 PM ^
CU has multiple uninspiring wins, a pedantic offense, and a defense with holes in the secondary & LBs. These are their supposed quality wins:
Wake Forest just got housed by Louisville - after beating no one beyond Texas Tech (really?)
NC State beat no one and lost to Syracuse by 15 - who was housed by Notre Dame.
November 2nd, 2022 at 8:12 PM ^
Dreaded double penetration. Wait. Strike that.
Dreaded double post.
November 2nd, 2022 at 1:54 PM ^
Given a 4-team playoff, and given there are five major conferences, conference championship games should essentially be elimination games. That's especially true given how rarely teams from different conferences play one another.
November 2nd, 2022 at 2:03 PM ^
I think this really cuts to the heart of it. As Klatt says toward the end of the video, where you start matters because everything after is built from that baseline. And Venom is 100% right that this initial ranking is built to soften up the ground for a CFP with 3 SEC teams in it. So 2 ideas:
1. Can the non-SEC presidents get their stuff together to bring in the 12-team playoff before the contract expires? (legit question)
2. Can we ditch this whole new rights deal and instead get FOX to launch a weekly national broadcast like NBC has (had?) with Notre Dame, only where Gus and Klatt being our exclusive broadcasters is made official? (wishcasting)
November 2nd, 2022 at 3:22 PM ^
Don’t look too far into it but it IS entirely possible that four SEC teams will only have one loss. If ole miss barely loses to bama, and bama wins the sec over an unbeaten Tennessee/Georgia, with the loser of that game this weekend winning out, the sec will be claiming that all four should be in. Especially if there are no unbeaten conference champions in the other conferences. It wouldn’t happen, most likely, but it is still possible.
November 2nd, 2022 at 3:33 PM ^
LSU already assured that that won’t happen by beating Ole Miss already.
November 2nd, 2022 at 5:33 PM ^
My mistake, lol.
November 2nd, 2022 at 12:12 PM ^
I suppose. But I'd argue that even a 13-0 Clemson would be the least deserving team to ever make the playoff. They don't have a top 30 SP+ team on their entire schedule and yet needed OT to beat Wake and very generous officiating to beat Syracuse.
It's arguable that the ACC is not even a "power" conference at this point. All the controversy over Cincinnati last year and yet they beat a #7 SP+ ND team on the road by 11 points
November 2nd, 2022 at 3:29 PM ^
Amen!! Let the talking heads like Finebummer get their thongs in a knot over this! TN v GA resolves that this week. M v osu later in the month.
November 3rd, 2022 at 1:27 PM ^
Tennessee and Georgia are both on mulligans still. Bama lost theirs. Just have Georgia and South Carolina win out. That would be a good start.
November 2nd, 2022 at 11:27 AM ^
He's right. Clemson should be the 6th highest rated undefeated. If that puts them behind Bama, so be it.
November 2nd, 2022 at 12:21 PM ^
This year's less than stellar Alabama team would easily beat Clemson.
November 2nd, 2022 at 3:29 PM ^
I tend to think the SEC is a little overrated, but look at any power ratings, Clemson would be lucky to go 8-4 with Alabama's schedule this year, and Alabama is a 12-point favorite over Clemson on a neutral field.