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Looking at the comparative…

Looking at the comparative run blocking skills of the offensive lineman, I’m generally baffled by your comment.

Legion of Boom did not like…

Legion of Boom did not like that guy.  Maybe not at first, but Carrol started treating him differently than everyone else- shielding him from criticism, not calling him out after bad games - and that did not sit well with the veteran leaders in the team, which largely were on the defensive side of the ball.  This is fairly well documented if you want to poke around the internet for articles.

I generally agree, but:

-…

I generally agree, but:

- The NCAA is clearly enforcing rules differently from school to school

- The NCAA and other coaches aren't on a mission to take down Tennessee's head coach

- Most importantly, what does Tennessee have to lose?  

I've kind of made my peace with how this all wrapped up at Michigan.  Jim wanted to go back to the NFL.  Could the university have done a better job sticking up for him?  Absolutely.  Would he still be here if they had?  Maybe?  Who knows.  It ended with the detractors getting their pound of flesh and Jim is gone, but they will have to suffer our 15-0 national title.  We got our title, but lost our coach.  Must have been a truly grand compromise, since nobody is really fully happy.

Why is it statistically…

Why is it statistically impossible to beat recruiting rankings in the way Michigan did?  Recruiting rankings are not measurable data, they are a dozen people's opinions translated into a number.  As many of the stargazers around here point out, many of our best players are our highest ranked ones, so that isn't outperforming anything.  As also noted elsewhere, the team composites include the recruiting rankings of freshmen who may never see the field, or players who are injured for that season, and does not consider roster composition (see, State, Ohio WR room) - all sources of "talented" players that are generally irrelevant to the product on the field.

The rankings industry exists for the sole reason to sell subscriptions to fans, therefore it stands to reason that they cater to the schools who have the biggest number of fans willing to pay for a subscription, and generally these fan bases want to be told they are getting the best players.  So they tell them what they want to hear within some level of reason...to sell subscriptions.  Then every year after the draft they all put out some variation of the same article that is dripping with confirmation bias that "proves" how good and accurate recruiting rankings are.

I don't think it is a coincidence that Michigan greatly outperformed recruiting rankings in an era where COVID turned them upside down for ~18 months.  

Just shows that even some of…

Just shows that even some of the most famous people can't just declare themselves to have new nicknames.

I'll throw up one from the…

I'll throw up one from the Maryland game since JJ was super banged up and I have no idea how that game goes if Maryland takes the lead late.  The safety on the intentional grounding - definitely fortunate since it doesn't get called enough, although I still argue it was 100% the right call and gave us the full one score cushion in case something crazy happened.  Corum also got that last 4th and one by a very small margin - could have given Maryland one last chance if short.

You could argue we were eventually going to put them away no matter what, but Jenkins' interception against BGSU seemed to put the JJ interceptions firmly in the past and get that game under control.

Semaj Morgan's end around against Purdue - Purdue annoyingly hanging around even though their offense couldn't do much and that play slammed the door shut.

Sticking with Morgan, the punt return against Iowa to help open that 10-0 lead lifted just about any doubt of victory...I'll also throw in the weird forward fumble recovery after the whistle plus the unsportsmanlike flag against Brian Ferentz that really ended that game.

Actually got some work done?…

Actually got some work done?  

 

...Nah, internet just replaced BS'ing at the water cooler.

10-2 with that schedule will…

10-2 with that schedule will probably make the playoffs.  9-3 won’t.

Did they have less turnovers…

Did they have less turnovers once you factor in missing four 4th down conversions?  That’s why they lost.  Punting is winning, analytics is for losing to Washington.

Also, which do you think gives a better representation of a team’s true quality- a game at the beginning of the year or the end?  Would you have bet on Texas to beat Bama at the end of the year?

Mock drafts are dumb.  That…

Mock drafts are dumb.  That being said, if Chop Robinson is actually available at 30 I would take that all day.  I know the Lions have issues in the secondary, but I'm a firm believer that pass rush makes your secondary better, at least to some extent.  On top of that, you will take some doubles away from Hutch.

I really think Williams was…

I really think Williams was trying to do too much this year.  He is a huge talent, and will probably rightfully go #1 overall.  

Out of the top 6 QB's, I generally think Nix and Penix should be the lowest, they have both played a ton of football already (both 6th year guys, right?), are like 24 years old and have probably already made the jump that your average 21 or 22 year old draftee would make holding the clipboard for a couple of years.  They aren't bad players, but I would venture a guess they are much closer to their ceiling already than Williams/McCarthy.

Draftology is basically the…

Draftology is basically the NFL equivalent of college football recruiting.  It's a way to generate clicks while selling hope to fans of poor teams, selling "filling in that one position to take us to the next level" for fans of middling teams, "how do we stay on top by drafting right" to fans of good teams, etc. In other words, another way to "win the offseason" to quote that dumbass Buckeye tweet the other day.

Mock drafts are very similar to recruiting rankings - a bunch of opinions that get averaged together and treated like they are measurable data, while not taking the opinions of the actual people to whom they would matter most - in the NFL, all of the front office personnel and in CFB coaches/position coaches.  That's why I always find it funny on draft day, inevitably someone will go much higher or lower than expected, and someone will chime in with "He was a consensus late first rounder and he went at #10, wow!"...but, according to whom?  Mel Kiper and Todd McShay?  Don't you think if those guys were scouts worth anything they would be working for an NFL team?

Didn’t Carroll eventually…

Didn’t Carroll eventually get a show cause?  I’m pretty sure he knew what was coming from the NCAA and left before the hammer dropped.

IMO he could have been an…

IMO he could have been an all timer at 3T if he’d gained 30 lbs in college instead of losing 30lbs.  He doesn’t have the natural bend to be a pure pass rusher, and he consistently ended up getting too far upfield when speed rushing.

I know he’s been well above average in the NFL as an OLB, but it just strikes me as such a round peg/square hole fit for such a talented guy.  How many other 6’5” 300 lb five star defensive tackles have you heard of to go in to play OLB in the NFL?

This has been the consistent…

This has been the consistent answer from MGoBlog and TMI, so I’d say it’s mostly right.  Defenses change over time though, so every disciples’ spin will be a little different.  

For instance, Mike McDonald ran very little of the amoeba blitz part of it at Michigan after realizing we had the two best DE’s in the country.  We ended up just playing a ton of Cover 2 and some Cover 3 in the big games down the stretch.

I would also say the constant 6 man boxes on first down is something Minter built in more in the last two years with our deep  and talented group of DT’s.  He brought out more blitz concepts on passing downs, particularly in 2022 because our DE’s were very much B to B- players.  
 

He was NFL coach of the year…

He was NFL coach of the year two years ago.

I think it is more…

I think it is more interesting that their recruiting and portal efforts continue to reflect that Day just doesn't get it.  Light in the trenches, top end WR's, a top end QB, and top end CB's.  He's STILL building his team to win pass happy playoff games in domes/good weather like it's 2019...even after the last 3 years of getting whupped in the trenches. 

They might get us this year because they are setting themselves up for a peak roster year, but I seriously hope they keep Ryan Day forever.

I’m very confused that you…

I’m very confused that you think anyone reading MGoBlog needs to look up the “flea kicker.”

Mayfield opted back in, then…

Mayfield opted back in, then got hurt late in game 2 (MSU).  Hutch got hurt in game 3 (Indiana).  Which, incidentally, was the first game of the Harbaugh era I made zero effort to watch live, so I suppose I opted out as well.

Like Sam said on WTKA, so…

Like Sam said on WTKA, so many on here are like kids at noon on Christmas asking "When is Christmas coming again?"  when Christmas isn't even over yet.

I totally get it - BPONE peaked only 3-4 years ago.  Harbaugh is doing his yearly NFL thing.  Some borderline draft/return guys went to the draft.  Some guys transferred out.  We didn't sign a bunch of 5 stars immediately after winning the National Championship.

This program went 26 years between National Championships.  75 years if you want to play the "outright" game.  Once JJ declared, it is highly unlikely the 2024 team has the roster to repeat as National Champions, and beating OSU and making the playoff is probably the ceiling. If this year is your new expectation, it is going to be a down year - but that is something to moan about in August, not now.

Please, FFS, try to enjoy last year's team accomplishing literally every team goal possible just for a little while before worrying that we don't have a proven CB2 or a "tall, leapy WR" for next year.

I wouldn’t read too much…

I wouldn’t read too much into that.  You’re talking about entities that just intentionally took a stand on Michigan on back to back games so they could fleece the public.  Probably decided they could make a fortune on Michigan fans emotionally hedging the move to the Chargers.

I think he photo bombed the…

I think he photo bombed the CFP selection show by the B1G trophy stand every time for the last 3 years.  One of my favorite players and personalities on the team.

Chargers is a not a great…

Chargers is a not a great job IMO- from what I’ve heard their home games are overrun and they use a silent snap count…at home.  I think they are something like 30 million over the cap.

Raiders are the other team I’ve heard- also a home stadium populated by transient casino comped tickets.  
 

I cant say Jim won’t take either of those jobs, but I can say he will be loved in Ann Arbor in a way he never will with those teams.

Man, that was surreal with 3…

Man, that was surreal with 3/4 picks for Iowa for the B1G Championship on Gameday.  There are very few times in my life where I know someone is baiting me and I still fall for it, and that was one of them.  If there was ANY doubt GameDay had lost all semblance of the fun, partially knowledgeable, football loving program it once was and had become nothing but a way for ESPN to drive clicks, that removed all doubt.

I'm partial to the Valiant …

I'm partial to the Valiant "Michigan Beat Everybody" ones so far - they have a T shirt and a hoodie available at the MDen.  I've never been a big fan of the "locker room" shirts and hats, - they are so obviously generic because they make them for both teams.

Go listen to 3 hours of Rich…

Go listen to 3 hours of Rich Eisen, it will tide you over.

I assume people who work for…

I assume people who work for teams in this capacity are excellent and we just don’t really know about it, but your scouts on teams for the last couple years have been incredibly detailed, and more importantly, incredibly accurate.  We’re spoiled to have you on MGoBlog writing these.

The difference though is…

The difference though is that TCU was a down to down 3-3-5 that was designed specifically to tempt teams into running the ball.  I don’t think this is that - throwing bodies at the LOS doesn’t seem like their MO, and when you change your whole defense on short notice to play hyper aggressively… well, I’m sure you watched M-OSU in 2022.

After looking at the area…

After looking at the area again, I think Rice Village is the best bet.

Man, they really do put these new NFL stadiums out in the middle of nowhere - and this is freakin’ Houston we’re talking about.

There was an article over at…

There was an article over at TMI around the PSU game or so that Jenkins had been dealing with some type of high ankle sprain, which does correspond a bit to a slight dip in production and UFR scores.  I thought was a bit suspect because I hadn't heard of many guys playing through something like that, but maybe it's different for DL vs skill position players.  It does seem like he has sort of hit about his college ceiling, where Graham is still ascending.

Very interesting to me in general that we supposedly have a bunch of B+ pass rushers...but as soon as we have an opponent in a position where we know they are going to throw (3rd and long, the entire final OSU possession, Maryland's final possessions) we're generating a ton of pressure with 4 or 5 man rushers seemingly at will.

My brother and I jumped…

My brother and I jumped right after the Rose Bowl.  It was a bad idea, and we overpaid.  But if we win, I highly doubt we’ll ever feel sad for not getting the best possible deal.  Living thousands of miles from AA, our Michigan in game experiences are home games against OSU and potential once in a lifetime games like this.

 

Or maybe higher education…

Or maybe higher education will have to evolve beyond giving out degrees for writing book reports.

I think knowing what you…

I think knowing what you need to get is a definite advantage.  It can be reduced by the team in defense picking an advantageous end of the stadium.  I’d say sometimes teams give away that advantage by getting a bit conservative if the other team gets a FG first, but that could be all in my head.  Michigan does have a pretty amazing record in OT given it should be close to a coin flip.

 

Upon further thinking- going second also allows you the option of going for 2 and winning the game if the other team scored and kicked the XP.  Theoretically the team that goes first could also go for 2, but I honestly have never heard of that happening.

I agree.  He could be…

I agree.  He could be literally making all of these up, or taking a liberty with a word or two, and really nobody would know.

I think it's the same as the last time around.  Pac-12 coaches are backing Washington, and Big 10 coaches are backing whoever is playing Michigan, cause they are sour ass grapes.

I hate to speak in…

I hate to speak in footballtalk but Washington really does seem to be a "big game team" - best overall and offensive performances against the best teams that they played. 

I think the Texas performance is worth a significant review - Texas' defense appears to be two All American DT's with a solid but unspectacular "back 9."  If so, as Brian mentioned on the preview podcast, that #10 SP+ defense is very relevant if playing Michigan and less relevant playing Washington.  I'm also not sold on Sark in big moments - they seemed to be playing a lot of catch up style football in that game (lots of passing, not much running) despite being within 1 score or tied for more than 75% of the game.

Washington is going to score and move the ball through the air in this game, I think it's just a question of "will they do it enough."  If they go very pass heavy because they are unable to run, say 50+ attempts, you also assume there will be a lot of clock stoppage due to incomplete passes, leading to likely more possessions and something closer to a game in the old clock rules era.  I think that will heavily favor a deeper Michigan team late in the game.  Of course, that would also probably be a 4.5 hour total length game due to 30 x 3 minute timeouts and a 30 min halftime, so maybe it won't matter.

I don't wish injury on anyone, but if Michigan is getting to Penix like they were to Milroe, I'll be very interested to see how well he holds up, especially if Washington gets to the point where they have to pass or are choosing to pass almost every play.  We saw even against average pass rushers in TCU against probably our best O line in 25 years, when the D knows you are going to pass, the number of pressures will go up, regardless of how good your O line is.

I just can't imagine that Dillon Johnson is going to be effective on Monday night.  The guy got carted off the field from the sideline after being unable to get up on a play where he surely knew an injury timeout was going to potentially cost his team the game.  If it's all pain related and not much is really broken I'm sure they can shoot him up if he wants to go, but he had a rough go against Texas. I think you can be almost certain he's going to be in worse shape for this game than that game, even if he can go.

I also truly believe this team has not played their A game since late October, and I really feel there is another gear they can hit that would make them almost unstoppable in this game.

The whole "Bama is 66-0 when…

The whole "Bama is 66-0 when leading 7-0 in the first quarter" was pretty shocking.

Correction: 66-1

I remember (or I'm pretty…

I remember (or I'm pretty sure I remember - it's been a rough day after embibing excessively last night) Sainristil had a sweet TD catch in that game (I guess it was our only one), and I remember thinking, "well, at least that guy will probably be good someday."

I won't say this…

I won't say this definitively about last night because the stadium was 10k over the stated capacity and probably was fairly loud, but in general, ESPN pumps a TON of crowd noise into the broadcast.  I've seen half empty bowl games sound like the Michigan-OSU game on the broadcast, and there is just no way that it's real. 

Now, if you want to argue that's part of the production and crowd noise should be pumped into the broadcast to bump up the energy, fair enough.

Well, if we could get a nice…

Well, if we could get a nice 4 hour MGoPodcast we could listen to that instead.

Hint, hint :D

I’m sure it was pretty…

I’m sure it was pretty serious, as I’m sure he knew that he was costing his team the ability to run out most of the clock by not limping off the field.

I thought we came out of the game ok except for Benny - did he come back in the game?  We never got a replay on that one but obviously it wasn’t like a cart off.

ID LIKE TO KNOW WHERE LOU…

ID LIKE TO KNOW WHERE LOU HOLTZ IS RIGHT NOW

Any word on Benny?  Don’t…

Any word on Benny?  Don’t think he came back in and didn’t see the injury.

The not knowing where the…

The not knowing where the blitz is coming from is just mind boggling.  People like Feldman go out there and sort of half ass pundit their way through how sign stealing could help a team without actually applying any critical thinking skills.  Think about the actual chain of communication on offense - you have to decode a signal, figure out what it means based on the personnel you have already put on the field, come up with a play that will somehow punish that defense, which if it is a pass might be a specific route within the play, and communicate all of this to the offense in 20-30 seconds.  Oh, and if the defense gets a new sign and makes a shift, you have to start all of this over again.

On the defensive side, the best you're getting is run/pass, which you can generally get a good grasp of based on offensive tackle stance/alignement, formation, and down/distance.  Are you actually going to tell me that you're teaching your ENTIRE DEFENSE someone else's ENTIRE playbook in a week so they can "know the play?"  This isn't fucking Tecmo Super Bowl.  On defense you play at the tempo of the offense, so you are far more reactionary and have much less time to put in the "perfect defense" for a specific play.

You would have to build your entire game plan every week around your sign stealing intel to even come close to maximizing the knowledge of the signs.  You would have massive performance drop offs if the other team changed their signals or went to a huddle.  All of this is to remind everyone for the billionth time the rule that was likely broken was put in place to save small programs money and was never intended to negate some kind of competitive advantage gained by advanced in person scouting.

Just FYI, dealing with…

Just FYI, dealing with offshore books usually takes you into the world of crypto transactions, sign up bonuses and significant rollovers.  If you aren't familiar with those, stick to your Draftkings/Fanduels of the world.

I always judge a state based…

I always judge a state based on the quality of their gas station Chinese Buffets.

Yeah, and I think PSU should…

Yeah, and I think PSU should have gotten the death penalty over the Sandusky shit, and that’s only tangentially related to football.

But that’s just my opinion.

The transfer portal is a…

The transfer portal is a turn off?  Out of 24 (I'll give one for kicker and one for punter) starting spots, this team has ~6 transfer portal "starters", right at 25%.  Showing work - Nugent (1), Henderson (1), Barner (1), Turner (1), Wallace (1), Stewart (0.5), Hinton (0.5).  Drop it to 5.5 if you want to make Hinton 0.25 and Wallace 0.75, but still over 20%.

This 2023 team is definitely worse without the portal.

Yeah, I don't particularly…

Yeah, I don't particularly care for Draymond Green, but I don't think this compares to having fist fights with fans after running into the stands.

I really felt like 2021 was…

I really felt like 2021 was better - not sure if it was louder, or the snow, or the feeling that "we're finally going to beat OSU" that built throughout the game.  This year the crowd was great, but I spent the whole game thinking "God I hope we don't lose, because we're the better team."

I've read dozens of posts at…

I've read dozens of posts at 11W and OSU Twitter that this was "a big completion to Marv and possibly a touchdown" if McCord doesn't get hit.  I guess when you look at a still photo just before McCord releases and MHJ is "open", you can assume the ball will travel at the speed of light to the receiver and nobody will be able to make a play on the ball.  Just like all of the still photos showing that "guys were open but McCord couldn't find them."