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Date Title Body
06/19/2018 - 7:37am Interesting note about…

Interesting note about Crouch - I thought I saw a thread on 247 saying "Five star on campus" so now I'm confused.  Think he is a long shot anyways.

06/18/2018 - 4:41pm IMO, you can only calculate…

IMO, you can only calculate SOS after the season is over and you have all of the results.  There is too much roster turnover and player improvement in CFB to just use last year's results to predict this years SOS.  I'd be willing to bet one team in the B1G east heavily underperforms to their preseason ranking.  For the rankings to work out (4 teams in the top 15 in most preseason stuff I've seen) the losses between OSU/PSU/UM/MSU have to be really evenly distributed and that probably won't happen.  MSU and PSU are probably a QB injury away from a rough year with basically zero experience for their backups.  Michigan is in for a rough year if the OLine doesn't take a big step forward.  OSU has enough talent to where their floor these days is probably 10-2.

Outside of the B1G East, ND is carrying a pretty high preseason rank and I can see them turning in a worse season than last year.  @NW is being presented as a tough game even though NW looks to me to be set for a 6-6 / 7-5 season.  At the end of the season M will probably be in the top 15 of SOS but I doubt it will be top 3 like is currently being predicted.

06/18/2018 - 3:53pm Even more so with the loss…

Even more so with the loss of Scout, my personal theory/manifesto on recruiting rankings is that in general those that rise late (after summer of Junior year) don't rise enough and those that fall late don't fall far enough.  Comments by Allen Trieu about this on TMI where he discusses "making guys earn a bump" (in reference to Barnhart at the time of comment) and how they don't like to move kids down is my only solid evidence of this, but anecdotally there are a few good examples on Michigan the last few years.

06/16/2018 - 11:34pm It’s funny that you and the…

It’s funny that you and the recruiting sites keep using the absolute top programs to “prove” or “correlate” rankings with wins while ignoring programs that succeed without top 5 classes. You're completely ignoring what else these top programs have- amazing facilities, a shitload if money, and top coaches on the staff from top to bottom.  You also ignore that teams that had big dips in success sometimes take more than 2 years to get rolling.  Davi Swinney oversaw the rise and fall of the phrase “Clemsoning”.  

Its funny too that you liked the ‘16 and ‘17 classes - although they were boosted in rankings by players that have already left or pretty clearly were overrated.

06/15/2018 - 1:39pm Uglier than having Jay…

Uglier than having Jay Paterno on your board of trustees?

06/14/2018 - 5:50pm What you're describing is…

What you're describing is basically The Anabolic Diet developed by Dr. Mauro DiPasquale. 

06/14/2018 - 5:45pm I guess you missed the…

I guess you missed the Andrew Vastardis hype from a few springs ago-  I swear the guy grew an inch and gained 10 lbs every time someone brought up his name. He's listed as 6' 3" 311 lbs on the roster and I've seen posters on here call him ridiculous shit like 6' 6" 330.   Mike Wroblewski had a ton of hype from last spring, he came in against Cincinnati when Bush got dinged up, promptly got steamrolled for a TD on the goal line and I don't think he played a meaningful snap outside of special teams from then on.  Nate Schoenle got a lot of hype and did play a decent amount but didn't have much production.

At this point in the year the roster is pretty depleted because the incoming class isn't on the depth chart - 'tis the season for walk-on hype.

06/14/2018 - 3:30pm You're not wrong that RB…

You're not wrong that RB recruiting hasn't worked out in quite some time.  I just don't think that Tru Wilson being the #3 back coming out of spring is too big of a concern.  3 more guys coming on campus in a few days as well to compete.

06/14/2018 - 3:08pm Alternative take:  Somewhere…

Alternative take:  Somewhere on a message board 3 years ago, there was someone just like you giving the exact same take about the state of WR recruiting at Clemson due to the emergence of some walk on named Hunter Renfrow.

Tru Wilson had some legit service academy offers.  He appears to be a legit player and a few guys have been injured on top of that. 

06/14/2018 - 8:21am Good write up - next weekend…

Good write up - next weekend has a ton of visitors as well, including some guys that are announcing commitments soon.

06/14/2018 - 8:16am I wouldn't call the hit rate…

I wouldn't call the hit rate "0% for 3* recruits."  By most accounts Runyan is in the driver's seat right now for RT and got playing time last year - starting for the first time as a RS JR is more or less on time for a program without a huge personnel hole on the OL.  He also is very athletic and has great measurables - if you recall he almost swept every category in last springs mock combine that the team posted.  Spanellis was the 6th OL last year and played most of the bowl game.  Ulizio started last year for the first 3 games.  The '17 guys it's pretty early to call them hits or misses.

OL is a group that routinely sends high 3*/low 4* guys to the NFL.  OL tend to stay in school longer (even top ranked OL are rarely 3 and dones) and have more development time, which puts their final output further away from recruiting rankings that are heavily influenced based on their junior year in HS.  It certainly wouldn't hurt to have higher ranked players but the hole from 2013, the small 2014 class and Newsome's injury are IMO a bigger factor in line struggles the last few years.

 

06/13/2018 - 4:52pm As of right now you still…

As of right now you still have to sit out a year if you transfer, so it's not a free agent pool the way grad transferring is.  All this does is prevent schools from saying things like "you can't transfer to a future opponent" or "you can't transfer in conference."

06/13/2018 - 4:47pm Buzz Killington avatar…

Buzz Killington avatar checks out :)

06/13/2018 - 4:42pm As others have sort of…

As others have sort of pointed out in the thread, it doesn't necessarily have to do with 26 walk-ons being ahead of a scholarship player for them to be out of the 110.  If a scholarship player is not on the 110 it would probably be more about position by position allocations, so maybe 2-4 walk-ons are ahead of a scholarship player at a certain position group.  Not great, but not impossible based on missing time due to injury or undisclosed disciplinary issues.

Pretty sure this is a non-issue/motivational tactic but the Jeff George Jr thread definitely made a big deal about JH's comment as well.  So goes the offseason where every bit of info gets ground up and made into something.

06/13/2018 - 11:11am If you read through this…

If you read through this pathetic chicken little thread, he is a scholarship Plan A replacement for both McCaffery and/or Peters.  Also Harbaugh/the program is in deep shit because THIS IS YEAR 4 AND QUARTERBACKS AND STUFF.

06/13/2018 - 10:32am Seriously, holy shit people,…

Seriously, holy shit people, calm down.  Thread title should be changed to add AS A WALK ON.  The terrible prognosticating of multiple inevitable transfers from the QB ranks based on adding A WALK ON is ridiculous. 

Also guys, if he comes he will be A WALK ON.

Seriously.

06/13/2018 - 8:41am Wasn't Jeff George Jr. a…

Wasn't Jeff George Jr. a walk-on at Illinois?  I seem to recall from the 2016 game this was brought up multiple times and that it was his first start, and he was only starting due to injury.  I didn't follow Illinois last year because 1.) they weren't on the schedule and 2.) they blend in with the rest of the terrible B1G west so I'm not sure if he got a scholarship at some point. 

If he is actually a PWO this thread will go down as a massive overreaction.

06/12/2018 - 9:38am With as long as this has…

With as long as this has been going on, if I could put money on College Gameday doing a feature on Reddit CFB Risk in week 1, I would bet the house.

I can hear Rece's intro now:  "Even in the offseason, college football fans are passionate and find a way to take it to their rivals.  The online community Reddit (said with emphasis and small pause) became a host to the popular board game Risk (same emphasis and pause) - but in this game each team was represented by a popular college football team.  With more here's someone who's schtick has long run out like Kenny Mayne."

06/08/2018 - 1:37pm I held back a bit.  Never go…

I held back a bit.  Never go full Maizen.

06/08/2018 - 1:18pm If you had told me in year 4…

If you had told me in year 4 of Harbaugh we wouldn't be getting every single player we recruit to commit to Michigan I would have laughed at you.  We've put several players in the NFL at this postion and have spent millions on facilities.  This is highly concerning, something is wrong with the program and/or the coaching staff.

 

Did I do it right Maizen/Bluey?

06/07/2018 - 12:26pm He has an OV scheduled for…

He has an OV scheduled for this weekend at PSU, Wisconsin the following weekend and UM the weekend after that.  Can you at least wait until the visits play out before concern trolling?

Mods, if cratering Maizen was appropriate why on earth is he allowed to change his name then continue on posting the exact same BS?

06/06/2018 - 11:56am I can't seem to edit but I…

I can't seem to edit but I should also clarify a couple calculation methods:

Gross and Net Punt Average Differences (the overall numbers like -2.06 and -1.2) are not the average of the Gross and Net Difference game column values, since that would take out the sample size. 

Gross Average is total yards for the whole year divided by number of punts.

Net Average is total punt yards minus total return yards divided by number of punts.

The punt sample size is 308 and return sample size is 111, so about 1 out of every 3 punts had a return.

If there is a way to post the full excel file I will if someone tells me how to do it.

06/04/2018 - 10:26am We had a good running game

We had a good running game post-MSU.  The complete lack of a passing game hampered the offense once the good teams on our schedule knew the only thing we could do well was run.  Even when we dominated some teams on the ground we struggled. Look at the IU game - 44 carries for 271 yards at 6.2 YPC, Indiana was 29/80 2.8 YPC.  We even had a 35/25 TOP advantage and we barely scraped out an OT win with O'Korn going 10/20 for 58 yards with a terrible 2/13 on 3rd downs.  On top of that he had a pick called back for questionnable PI, a wide open miss of Gentry for a big play and his long of the day (17 yards) being a circus scramble dime throw to DPJ.  That is how you manage to barely beat a team you are otherwise whupping - bad QB play.

06/04/2018 - 10:16am I'd expand that slightly to

I'd expand that slightly to say he hasn't looked the same since the 2nd quarter of the Iowa game.  That was the first time he constantly started missing wide open guys downfield by a large margin.

06/01/2018 - 4:15pm I would question the accuracy

I would question the accuracy of recruiting rankings when it was basically ONE GUY (Tom Lemming) making up all the rankings.  You don't think those were skewed based on a player committting to Michigan?  The rankings up to the mid 90s are a difficult comparison as well if you consider that scholarship limits were reduced from 95 to the current 85 from 1992-1995.  Also, ONE national championship from 1980 to whenever you decided recruting fell off (probably 2007ish), so all of these recruiting national championships still didn't mean much. 

Other schools are putting a ton of money into facilities, so your numbers are pretty useless without a comparison.  It may seem that fans are moving goalposts because you're reading the opinions of a lof of different people, personally I think i've been consistent in this topic.  We're not going to recruit at a top 5 level if we're not performing on the field as a top 5 program.  I can see how that becomes a chicken/egg argument, but I doubt we make much progress discussing that.

06/01/2018 - 2:34pm LOL.  I have to give you

LOL.  I have to give you credit for being consistent. 

Serious question, do you really think with who Michigan recruits, admission standards and unwillingness to go full Ole Miss that they will ever consistently be a top 5ish recruiting outfit?  You really seem to think that there is nothing holding them back from being top 5 every year other than the staff's ability to identify the right players (you seem think they should just use the 247 composite) and put in enough effort/work hard at recruiting.  My baseline is about 8-15th depending on how many spots they have open.

06/01/2018 - 2:07pm Lighten up man, you went full

Lighten up man, you went full MGoFish defense force and had like 10 replies in a thread with 20 total.  I don't actually think you're Garret Fishaw.

06/01/2018 - 9:50am Yeah I was on mobile and the

Yeah I was on mobile and the little icons must not show the + "date" properly.  If you like his (your?) site a lot, that's great.  I'm saying it has no more inside information than anyone with a 247 subscription has, and GF is rarely first with a CB based on my periodical monitoring of 247.

06/01/2018 - 9:09am Maybe the day system on 247

Maybe the day system on 247 is broken then as all correct picks are all showing +0 except for Sam Johnson.

So currently for 2019 recruits he is 9/14.

Sam Webb had a recruiting roundup segment about Michael Barrett several months before he was on commit watch, so I wouldn't say nobody knew who he was.

I mean it's a good site if you want a summary of what everyone else has already posted.  Interesting that it used to be on the Michigan Blogs on the sidebar but no longer is.

 

06/01/2018 - 8:46am I’m pretty sure he has zero

I’m pretty sure he has zero inside information. He is a serial last second me-too crystal baller on 247. Look at all the +0 “correct” CB’s he has - some of which are basically posted after the player announced.

https://247sports.com/User/Garrett%20Fishaw/Predictions?PlayerInstituti…

05/31/2018 - 6:20pm I don't think this is an

I don't think this is an excellent article.  It basically states over and over that everyone else cheats but Ain't University got busted because free merchandise from a store was involved.  It has a very heavy "LEAVE OLE MISS ALONE" tone to it.  Also LOL at "Treadwell wasn't that much of a head scratcher because he knew a dude on the team at Ole Miss".  Sure dude.  Insert treadwellmoneyzgirlzandringz.jpg.

05/31/2018 - 6:14pm I like the qualification of

I like the qualification of "free weights" so we know you aren't accidentally giving us your leg press numbers ;)

Not to be "that guy" but from some (most?) of the videos i've seen of college players lifting, they would never get a green light in a powerlifting contest.  But that's ok, because they're training for football and not a powerlifting contest.  But that also makes the lift non standard from player to player so the actual amount of weight isn't apples to apples.  This is my roundabout way of saying if he really squats 600lbs at 300lbs at age 17, that is above "standard".  Probably.  I'll see myself out.

05/31/2018 - 11:41am I'd say 6th:
1.) @OSU
2.)

I'd say 6th:

1.) @OSU

2.) @MSU

3.) @ND

4.) Wisconsin

5.) PSU

6.) @NW

Keep in mind that despite some of the insane predicitons of Clayton Thoresen going in the first round of the NFL draft, he suffered a torn ACL in the bowl game and is still a question mark to play this year.  They could end up being a bit of a tire fire, NW tends to mix in a 6-6 season here and there between 9 and 10 win years (and 6-6 is pretty bad for a team in the B1G W).  I wouldn't be too shocked if Maryland was much improved this year, assuming they have a QB healthy, but they will probably still have a bad record being stuck in the B1G E.

Based on schedule I'm hoping for 10-2.  If there are two losses I'm hoping for @ND and Wisconsin -  we would still make the B1G title game and would have a real shot at a playoff slot if they "avenge" the loss against Wisconsin at a neutral field.  Any losses against a B1G E opponent probably knocks us out of the B1G title game

05/30/2018 - 10:03pm So... which previously banned

So... which previously banned naysayer account are you? Or maybe you’ve actually only been here two months and haven’t see hundreds of threads junked up by the negative Nancy crew? There are a lot of posters here who are constantly negative or spin slightly positive news in a negative light, and they are conspicuously absent when undeniably good things happen.

05/30/2018 - 11:11am As someone that went to

As someone that went to engineering school, can you elaborate on undergraduate engineering being a different beast at UM than Alabama?  I'm pretty sure the laws of thermodynamics are the same, as are fluid mechanics and just about everything related to physics.  I have no doubt that there are more outside opportunities at UM (ex: working on the solar car project/team), the facilities are better at UM and the graduate engineering programs are probably far more expansive and specialized.  I really don't think undergrad engineering is all that much different or more difficult from school to school.  I can also confirm having extremely accomplished PHD professors that have done industry leading research doesn't mean they can teach worth a shit.

05/24/2018 - 6:01pm Those ads are annoying but

Those ads are annoying but brilliant.  Nobody would know who JG Wentworth is but for their incredibly catchy and annoying jingle.  If anyone ever said to me "I have structured payments but I need cash now" I'm pretty sure I'm completely programmed at this point to automatically say "Call JG Wentworth, 877-CASH-NOW."

05/23/2018 - 3:18pm Recruiting rankings have

Recruiting rankings have shown time and time again to be mostly accurate if you take an entire class ranking and use the top couple to predict who the top couple teams are.  Recruiting rankings are highly inaccurate on a player by player basis, much like NFL draft position.

05/23/2018 - 1:04pm So Maizen, are you happier M

So Maizen, are you happier M picked up Barnhart and want them to drop pursuit of Herrod now?  Must be hard to live by rankings that fluctuate so much.

05/21/2018 - 3:49pm I think you missed a key

I think you missed a key piece here in special teams.  I've gone back to watch a few of the whistle to whistle versions of the games and one thing that stands out in 2017 that is a huge contrast to 2016 was the yards we lost in the punting game last year.  Robbins was well below average in the B1G and while DPJ certainly had some great returns, his inability to field/fair catch punts cost a ton of field position.  I'd drag up his numbers compared to Peppers but Peppers' ability to fair catch short punts wouldn't show up in simple return averages.

You can see this in the close losses as well as the 3 B1G blowout wins in the middle of the season - we would maybe get a first down (sometimes 2) then go 3 and out (so a 4 or 5 and out), punt, hold the other team to a 3 and out, force a punt, and end up with the same or sometimes worse field position than we had when originally starting the drive before.  We would basically lose any field position that first down or two had given us.  This happened...A...LOT.  For an offense that struggled, I think losing this 5-15 yards on every change of possession, while certainly not the main cause of the offense's issues, made a bad situation worse. It also negates the impact of the defense when a highly positive outcome like a 3 and out results in no real improvement in field position.

If Robbins can improve to just above average in the B1G and DPJ or whoever they put back there can do a better job of fair catching when required, this will have a big impact on the season, particularly close games.  Not as impactful as the OL, but still a big factor.

05/18/2018 - 9:01am On top of that, Rudock's

On top of that, Rudock's entire Michigan career was ~6 months.  Patterson will have been here 6 months before fall camp starts.

05/16/2018 - 4:31pm Game over with a successful

Game over with a successful 2PT Peppers play where he finally throws it! Right? Right. Yeah right sad face.

05/16/2018 - 10:13am Maizen Replacement?

Dude, that IS Maizen.  The posts read exactly like Maizen and persistance in which he continually defends post after post - pretty obvious.

05/10/2018 - 11:05am Is there anything Michigan

Is there anything Michigan Football fans won't complain about?

05/08/2018 - 11:09am Completely disagree that Sam

Completely disagree that Sam doesn't know things that the program doesn't want to get out.  At least one insider has described his access to SH as "unprecidented."  However, you're correct in saying that he rarely puts out any of the negative information.  He is around the program way too much to not know the good and the bad.  I think most of what he puts out there is "true", but typically he is only telling half of the story.  Understand that is the price for his access and be happy for the info that we do get.

05/08/2018 - 11:00am Completely agree - you can

Completely agree - you can list dozens of reasons why recruiting rankings are flawed yet once a bunch of questionably qualified people put a solid number on a 16 year old kid, it's somehow a quantitative measurement.  The only reason there is any correlation to winning is that the sample size per year is large (20-30 kids per class) and the absolute top teams (Bama, OSU, Clemson, Georgia, etc) are used to "prove" recruiting rankings matter, even though the data gets much cloudier once you zoom out to say the top 25.

Allan Treiu (SP? sorry) was on TMI last week and said something very interesting and telling when discussing Barnhart - That the lower ranked kids need to "earn their way to a ratings boost because it's hard to drop a kid" (I'm paraphrasing but that is the gist).  So let's think about what that actually means - kids are heavily ranked on their junior season and the rankings services don't like to move kids down.  If that isn't blindingly obvious proof that the concrete number they put next to a kids name is at least 50% bullshit, I don't know what is.

04/17/2018 - 7:09pm Thank you. The college and

Thank you. The college and professional football coaching ranks are littered with guys that failed at a certain level then went back to the level that made them successful in the first place. Jim M just doesn’t seem to interview well and that probably won’t change. I think he’ll do well in his current position for a couple years before moving back to a big time OC job or HC of a mid major and do just fine.

03/25/2018 - 10:35pm Absolutely. Hey dude who

Absolutely. Hey dude who thought flying on a commercial airline to China was a humble brag,take some notes, this is how it's done.

03/23/2018 - 8:54am How is flying commercial to

How is flying commercial to China a humblebrag?  If anything I feel bad for you.

02/26/2018 - 3:49pm So you got what you were

So you got what you were begging for in the Roundtable (Drevno out) and you're still boycotting anything related to current football activities?  Hurst is out so he doesn't count.

02/26/2018 - 10:33am "Free Agency.  Shaq made his

"Free Agency.  Shaq made his money moving to LA.  Do you know how much he makes now?"

"Almost as much as he made in college?"

/BASEketball