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Date Title Body
10/19/2018 - 6:14pm I hope part of the…

I hope part of the motivation is that any wind and rain is to our advantage.  That we *want* to get our hands dirty and push them around in a slopfest.  

10/19/2018 - 6:02pm +1 for Soft Boys.  "Insanely…

+1 for Soft Boys.  "Insanely Jealous" also works, as it still applies to MSU.

10/19/2018 - 6:00pm -- Radiohead - "Burn the…

-- Radiohead - "Burn the Witch"

You know which witch I mean.  Long overdue schadenfreude game.  Turn Richard Milhous Dantonio's scowl into a scowl.

-- Bob Dylan - "Tangled Up in Blue"

Look forward to watching Lewerke running for his life.

-- Flight of the Conchords - "Business Time"

Just take care of business, even if it's ugly.  Especially if it's ugly.

-- John Maus - "Touchdown" 

Retro-electro doom-pop from a guy who probably doesn't care about football.  Wonder what those people are doing right now.

-- Burial - "Rival Dealer"

Yes, they are our rivals, and yes, they used to do drugs.  (They still do, but they used to, too.)

This song is seven minutes of chaos before the skies open up and the beautiful future lays before us.

 

10/19/2018 - 5:35pm S&P also says Michigan has a…

S&P also says Michigan has a 71% chance to win tomorrow, and projects them to win by 9.6 points.

However, MSU tends to slightly overperform relative to S&P, whereas Harbaugh has slightly underperformed.

My solace: Michigan is finally good enough to win while not playing their best.  M, 23-17

 

10/19/2018 - 12:31am I also recommend Mitch's,…

I also recommend Mitch's, Touchdown's, the Del Rio, and Damon's.

10/19/2018 - 12:28am Bill "Shoots" Self

Bill "Shoots" Self

10/17/2018 - 1:42pm Same here.  A loss to MSU is…

Same here.  A loss to MSU is tolerable if Michigan wins out and wins the Big Ten.

Jesus, all these fans who swallow whole the media narratives, then issue these ultimatums, threatening to abandon the team -- shouldn't they already be gone, after the past 10 years?  

10/17/2018 - 1:37pm This is not an important…

This is not an important game.  There will be no narratives or takes based on the result of this game.  If MSU wins, I'm sure their fans will be cordial, if they say anything at all.  The national media won't be talking about Harbaugh vs rivals, or hot seats, or the NFL.  

I probably won't even watch the game, as I am sure there will be some scintillating noon ACC action.

10/17/2018 - 1:29pm That 1999 Michigan-Purdue…

That 1999 Michigan-Purdue game featured what will probably end up as the top two all time passing yardage leaders in the NFL.  

The Big Ten takes a lot of crap from the media, and even from Brian, but that was one year where it was quietly the best conference in the nation.

10/16/2018 - 9:31pm (No subject)

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10/16/2018 - 8:40pm If Scott plays, he can only…

If Scott plays, he can only play the second half

10/16/2018 - 9:53am "Junk the results"

Or maybe…

"Junk the results"

Or maybe tweak them?  And/or reevaluate your own assumptions about how good PSU is?

I think people who can't pick a game to save their lives are telling me about their airtight 'smell tests' and 'eyeball tests'.  We see it with blathering pundits every week.  

10/16/2018 - 9:50am "He lost me with PSU at 4. …

"He lost me with PSU at 4.  I can't reconcile that one."

This is a new formula, and could use some tweaking.  Penn St might benefit too much from running up the score on Pitt, and maybe he doesn't penalize a team enough for losing.  (A one-point loss to #2 OSU puts them right behind OSU.)

However, Penn St -- assuming they don't mentally collapse -- is still a Top 10 team at worst by advanced metrics, and you should bet on them accordingly.  

10/16/2018 - 9:40am "The strength of schedule…

"The strength of schedule argument changes weekly based on how each team does after you play them"

He updates these weekly, based on the cumulative performance of each opponent.  

"and reputation and name recognition always factor in."

They shouldn't, and his formula doesn't factor them in.

"There is no full proof formula, but football still does a damn good job of figuring out who the most deserving is."

Fool-proof?  And no, it doesn't.  As top teams lose, others re-enter the picture.  At the end of the season we are usually left with a number of self-appointed 'deserving' teams that is not exactly equal to four.  That's why fans, players, media, and coaches tout the high points of their team's resume.  (Remember '06 when CBS and Urban Meyer went full-on campaigning for the SEC to get in over Michigan?) 

And inevitably, preseason "top" teams who ended up playing a terribly weak schedule (e.g. Clemson, ND) stay at the top by default. 

These are our biases in selecting the top four teams.  Pundits who go 8-14 against the spread every week telling me who is 'definitely the best team' based on 'the eyeball test'.  Bill Connelly is determined to get rid of that stuff.

10/15/2018 - 1:22pm The Harbaugh narratives…

The Harbaugh narratives would be so different if we were in Wisconsin's shoes.  Playing for the Big Ten championship in 2015 & 2016, etc.

10/15/2018 - 12:20am Even if Josiah Scott were…

Even if Josiah Scott were back, he'd miss the 1st half.  He had a targeting penalty in the 2nd half of the bowl game.

10/15/2018 - 12:15am It's sad that a family can…

It's sad that a family can be torn apart by something as simple as a pack of wild dogs.

10/14/2018 - 4:15pm Hot takes are often factual…

Hot takes are often factual.  But they are cherry picked and gerrymandered to make a rival team look bad.  Most of that losing streak has nothing to do with this year's team.  It's a substitute for actual analysis of the current situation.

10/14/2018 - 2:19pm MSU at #24.  Time to end…

MSU at #24.  Time to end that 'ranked team on the road' losing streak hot take.

10/14/2018 - 2:02pm I usually enjoy some polite…

I usually enjoy some polite and good-natured rubbing, but maybe not from the average OSU fan.

10/14/2018 - 1:56pm Perhaps your eyes don't pass…

Perhaps your eyes don't pass the stats test.

10/12/2018 - 6:24pm Michigan 30, Wisconsin 21

Michigan 30, Wisconsin 21

10/07/2018 - 11:28am "Anyone who thinks we have a…

"Anyone who thinks we have a shot against Wiscy next week is delusional. We're going to get steam-rolled."

That's the dumbest one.

10/05/2018 - 5:50pm Unless it's M00M entering…

Unless it's M00M entering the 4th quarter and we escape 6-3.

10/03/2018 - 11:55pm Dan is funny and…

Dan is funny and knowledgeable, well worth the listen. 

Ty ... seems like a nice guy.  

10/03/2018 - 11:51pm I like PAPN for Bill, but…

I like PAPN for Bill, but Godfrey's irritatingly glib.  Hit-and-miss humor that is mostly miss, and he seems to think 97% of games played aren't worth watching.  As a hardcore college football fan, that's hard to relate to.  I don't know why they can't find somebody better.

10/02/2018 - 1:59pm Everything indicates we…

Everything indicates we should be the better team.  But we know how these games play out.

MSU will cobble together 17-20 points on scripted drives, special teams, broken plays, Lewerke taking off, flags and more flags, and the occasional trick play.  

I think we will struggle to get to 20 points.  Harbaugh will be conservative, and the clock will keep moving.  It's going to be a 19-17 type of game.

10/02/2018 - 1:54pm Another thing to remember…

Another thing to remember about Scott is he must sit out the first half of his first game due to a targeting penalty in the bowl game.  So he'd have to return vs PSU (and sit the 1st half) in order to play the full game against us.

And if I understand the rules correctly, they could wait until the OSU game in November, he could play 4 games, then get a redshirt year.

10/02/2018 - 1:27pm S&P projections have us at a…

S&P projections have us at a 37% chance to win that game.  So according to statistical profiles, 3 is on the low side of about right.

Remaining games, with % chance of winning:

Maryland - 89%

Wisconsin - 67%

MSU - 62%

Penn St - 57%

Rutgers - 97%

Indiana - 85%

Ohio St - 37%

I understand the games are played, not simulated, but I think the OP is actually a little on the pessimistic side.

 

10/02/2018 - 1:20am They are now disrespected,…

They are now disrespected, so they won.

09/29/2018 - 12:21am Michigan 27, Northwestern 9

Michigan 27, Northwestern 9

09/27/2018 - 9:38pm No, he left it too close to…

No, he left it too close to a stove burner

09/27/2018 - 11:14am Wasn't Shane Morris also a 5…

Wasn't Shane Morris also a 5* by at least one service?  Or maybe he dropped after getting sick.  Anyway, that's another one who transferred.

09/25/2018 - 4:12pm "I enjoy inside jokes.  I…

"I enjoy inside jokes.  I hope to be part of one some day."

09/25/2018 - 4:09pm Same here.  They embrace…

Same here.  They embrace their reputation for niceness.  There are worse things.

I did hear some whining about the late flag on the facemask, after it was shown on the scoreboard, as well as the safety.  But it had to be a tough day for them.  Worst halftime deficit in their history.

09/25/2018 - 2:12pm I can't think there's any…

I can't think there's any way to actually project that kind of luck -- only to see it in retrospect.  What I do like is the "2nd-order wins" stat: basically, how many wins a team should have based on all statistical factors, vs how many they actually have.  

Comparing Michigan vs. Notre Dame, for instance, shows that the result of that game had much more to do with it being a typical South Bend shitshow of flags and inexplicable broken plays than it had to do with Michigan being 'dominated' per Hot Take dispensers.

Of course, part of what Harbaugh needs to do is turn those efficiency numbers into close wins against good teams instead of close losses.  The numbers seem to promise that it's only a matter of time.

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https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa

09/25/2018 - 2:02pm This Google Doc includes all…

This Google Doc includes all FBS teams:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQ2e9xV7-ClihFVJ3kla0ZDxzFCQ7-WXvQRur-nK6gOzo333PqSetw52kEGgbXKb6viGZSbYuJugvRR/pubhtml#

09/25/2018 - 1:36pm They did not lose to Purdue…

They did not lose to Purdue.  Their Akron loss was embarrassing, but also fluky -- I think Akron had three defensive touchdowns in the second half.  Northwestern was up 21-3 at halftime.

Northwestern has a Top-25 defense, and is particularly good against the run.  Fitzgerald is a good coach, Evanston is a weird place to play, and it may be a rainy afternoon.  They aren't a great team but it could be a weird, sloppy, low-scoring game.  

09/25/2018 - 1:34pm This is an insane comment. …

This is an insane comment.  Fitzgerald is a legend in the program.  He will stay as long as he wants to.  He has a .572 winning percentage overall and about .500 in the Big Ten over a 12+ year period, which is astounding relative to Northwestern, historically.

He also runs a clean program and is one of the top overperforming coaches relative to roster, which is crucial given Northwestern's recruiting limitations:

https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2018/6/27/17509234/college-football-coaching-underachievers-overachievers-2018

09/25/2018 - 1:25pm Michigan is ranked #7…

Michigan is ranked #7 nationally in Special Teams S&P.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa

09/25/2018 - 1:23pm Updated win probabilities…

Updated win probabilities for remaining schedule:

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09/24/2018 - 8:59pm I feel like this was posted…

I feel like this was posted by RichRod.  

09/24/2018 - 8:44pm Duh. 14-1.

Duh. 14-1.

09/24/2018 - 8:43pm Auburn over Washington

LSU…

Auburn over Washington

LSU over Miami

Ole Miss over suddenly impressive Texas Tech

That conference tends to get up for those early season 'neutral-site' games in antiseptic eyesoreNFL stadiums.

 

09/24/2018 - 8:39pm Probably not going 12-1, but…

Probably not going 12-1, but it's fun to talk about the possibilities.  Get our hopes up, talk about the landscape while so many schools are still in play.  

09/24/2018 - 8:36pm Yep -- I guarantee ND and…

Yep -- I guarantee ND and Stanford will not both go undefeated.  In fact, I guarantee one of them loses before the end of September.  Call it a hunch.

09/24/2018 - 8:32pm I think you were too…

I think you were too confident in posting this

09/24/2018 - 8:28pm Agreed.  The havoc he…

Agreed.  The havoc he creates can swing a game.  

09/24/2018 - 8:13pm Idk about several ... before…

Idk about several ... before 2016, they had not beaten OSU in Happy Valley since 2005.

09/24/2018 - 8:10pm That OSU trip to Penn St in…

That OSU trip to Penn St in 2014 was one of the more inexplicable results in recent Big Ten play.  IIRC Penn State had just come to Ann Arbor and lost 18-13 to a truly listless Brady Hoke team.  And the game looked as bad as it sounds.  

The idea, in retrospect, that had Penn State won, Meyer wouldn't have had his 2014 national title, makes me grind my teeth.