M favored by 4.5, W favored by 3.5 over Iowa....
Odds
Michigan by 4.5 over MichSt
Wisconsin by 3.5 over Iowa
Tulsa favored to beat Navy worse than Cincy beat them, by 9.5
Pitt by 9 over Miami
Georgia by 14 over Florida
Neb by 7.5 over Pur
October 27th, 2021 at 9:47 AM ^
As long as Nebraska isn't ranked #2 in the country I think they'll handle Purdue just fine.
October 27th, 2021 at 9:48 AM ^
What about the odds of Penn State beating Illinois at the Big House this weekend?
October 27th, 2021 at 9:50 AM ^
+1 (Underrated)
October 27th, 2021 at 10:14 AM ^
Suggestion:
Northwestern in Kinnick to Ohio St. ......with the knife.
October 27th, 2021 at 12:59 PM ^
So you're telling me that Professor Plum killed Colonel Mustard in the Outhouse with a knife?
October 27th, 2021 at 11:51 AM ^
What am I missing here...
October 27th, 2021 at 11:57 AM ^
A James Franklin interview from this week. Said he was focused on Illinois this week and mentioned playing in the big house.
October 27th, 2021 at 9:52 AM ^
Honestly, I'm surprised by this line. This means Michigan would be favored by a touchdown if they were playing in Ann Arbor, since home field advantage usually adds around 3 points to lines if I remember correctly. I just don't see Michigan as that much better than MSU this year. I'll be happy to be wrong!
October 27th, 2021 at 9:59 AM ^
I cant wait until this team proves to you and many that they are actually good. Yet unfortunately when they beat state, a majority of the fans will say MSU was overrated.
October 27th, 2021 at 10:04 AM ^
Of course they will. We’re only good when someone else we played and beat; wins against another team that supposedly is good.
October 27th, 2021 at 10:29 AM ^
A Saturday win doesn't matter. Michigan won't be 'for real' until they beat PSU...
October 27th, 2021 at 10:50 AM ^
After last weekend, I don't Penn State can really be used as a measuring stick anymore...
Unless that stick is still "beat the teams you should beat"
October 27th, 2021 at 11:57 AM ^
In many fans' minds, we won't be 'for real' unless we beat Ohio State.
October 27th, 2021 at 10:37 AM ^
I'll speak for myself. If Michigan wins this weekend, the hype train will be running full force. There have been enough caveats to Michigan's season to this point that I still expect the worst. I want to believe though!
October 27th, 2021 at 11:52 AM ^
I don't believe that you will believe. Just imagine, M trounces MSU by 24, somewhat similar to what happened against Wisconsin, which by the way has a way better defense than MSU. You believe it now, but next week there will be a new BPONE. Nature of being a Michigan fan for the last 20 years. :(
October 27th, 2021 at 11:59 AM ^
so true it hurts....every week
October 27th, 2021 at 12:04 PM ^
Good. No rat poison.
October 27th, 2021 at 10:01 AM ^
This assumption always makes me furl my eyebrows. Does anyone really think these guys just set a line for a neutral field and then adjust it +/-3 for home field advantage anymore? Are all home stadiums built alike? Like, it is EXACTLY 3 points benefit to the home team no matter if they draw 110,000 fans every Saturday (UM), or 1,100 (EMU)? These guys are using complex statistical models to set these lines now, and I strongly doubt they include a +/-3 constant to whatever the algorithm tells them based on home field advantage.
October 27th, 2021 at 10:06 AM ^
In reference to your non-belief see point spread UW versus a ranked Michigan at home.
October 27th, 2021 at 10:16 AM ^
Agree with everything you said, but I think it’s a reasonable heuristic. I’ve heard night games add 3 points as well, but again, that’s gotta be just kind of a generality.
No way a PSU White Out gets the same treatment that an IU home night game gets.
October 27th, 2021 at 11:45 AM ^
Lines aren't set by computers alone, there is a large human component, usually a group of smart football people. So, where the home game is, usually matters, ie The Big House vs Standford stadium.
Also the line isn't designed to pick the better team, it's designed to attract the most even money.
Interesting too the line has shifted a point in Michigan's favour. It tells you what side is seeingmore action.
October 27th, 2021 at 2:29 PM ^
Also the line isn't designed to pick the better team, it's designed to attract the most even money.
It's both. Every professional oddsmaker you can find on google or youtube will say this. They are happy to pick a side if the betting public in aggregate is making a bad bet.
October 27th, 2021 at 1:56 PM ^
What if, and hear me out, the complex algorithm that these guys use INCLUDES a home field advantage factor? And that factor is roughly equal to a 2.5-3 point swing. Crazy right?
October 27th, 2021 at 4:20 PM ^
Wait, hear me out... That would be a constant, which is only used if every single team (or other unit of analysis) has the exact same value on a variable. They almost certainly do something much more complex, like compile decades worth of data and see, based on both more distant and more recent past results, how much home advantage (relative to their away game and neutral field performance) a team actually enjoys. That value will vary across teams, probably quite radically. Indeed, I am sure there are some teams who perform worse over the course of one or more seasons at home.
Want to see if I am right? Go get the past results for a few teams (say, all the B1G) over a few years. Compile all their points earned and given over those seasons, differentiating home and away games. I will bet you an infinite amount of money that you do not find that any one team (let alone all of them) are precisely +3 in the margin between those two numbers at home vs. away. If they are not, then the +3 constant idea everyone seems to take for granted is silly, and not being used in advanced statistics.
October 27th, 2021 at 11:04 PM ^
Or, you could go to this website and see that someone has already done all this work for you and recalculates home field advantage every week….
http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm
October 27th, 2021 at 5:25 PM ^
Geez, it is an assumption. There is a known statistical average. What number did you want the poster to use to discuss home field advantage? The point is that the Spartans are at home and not the favorite.
October 27th, 2021 at 10:03 AM ^
To be fair, I think lines for UM often shade toward UM since it has the brand name and there are a lot of fans that bet UM. But yeah, I think that line is off. I honestly would put it at a pickem. I think SP+, though, has UM as a 4 point favorite.
October 27th, 2021 at 10:09 AM ^
Freddy that’s not true. If we suck then there’s absolutely no way Vegas will give us a +3 for home games. It’s not even common sense. Like I said for absolute proof. Look up the line for us against Wisconsin. Was our brand not there on that weekend?
October 27th, 2021 at 10:19 AM ^
Vegas isn't an advanced stat entity that's trying to get the score correct. They do risk management. They set a line they think will balance out both sides of betting and then move it depending on where more money is being placed. If a lot of people are like "WOOO I LOVE UM" and put money on UM, then they'll move the line because of that. It's probably not big since professional gamblers throwing a lot of money will pick on that, but it's not insignificant either.
October 27th, 2021 at 10:41 AM ^
Almost never fails that when a betting line post is made someone will try to assert that Vegas is trying to accurately predict the score (or some variant thereof) and someone else will correctly point out that Vegas could care less whether their prediction is accurate, they are simply trying to get even money on both sides.
October 27th, 2021 at 11:04 AM ^
You know who else does risk management? Actuaries. You know what tools actuaries use literally more than any other? Advanced statistics. We can go back forth about the goal of Vegas in setting lines (i.e., predicting scores, getting money on both sides, etc.), but if you think billion-dollar casinos and sports books are NOT using advanced statistics to determine the lines for these games, you are smoking more meth than Jessie did after Walter let Jane die of a heroin overdose.
October 27th, 2021 at 11:18 AM ^
FEI and SP+ don't move based on what twitter thinks the score will be. Vegas will move their line based on what bettors think the score will be. I'm sure the line makers in Vegas know all the advanced stats as well, but they don't just plug everything into a computer and let it ride when taking bets either. That would probably be bad risk management.
October 27th, 2021 at 11:30 AM ^
I said "set lines." Who mentioned them moving lines based on what Twitter says? They set these lines a week before the games start (and in some cases, long before that). The lines move organically and are adjusted due to money flows to one side or another, injury reports, changes in weather forecasts, etc. But to set the lines, they rely heavily on statistical models.
I did 5 minutes of Internet research and found a company called CG Technology. Here is what they do:
"One such example is CG Technology, a Las Vegas-based odds consulting firm. CG Technology primarily provides odds and lines for brick and mortar sportsbooks in Nevada. They list illustrious sportsbooks such as the Palms, the Hard Rock Hotel, and the Cosmopolitan as clients. However, similar services with comparable operational structures (like Don Best, mentioned above) provide odds for online sportsbooks.
Companies like CG Technology incorporate proprietary algorithms and data analysis methods into their odds and line generation. Yet, they claim to balance data analytics, the unique customer tendencies of their clients, injuries, and price comparisons before releasing their lines."
October 27th, 2021 at 12:45 PM ^
Don’t uses facts around here, Buddy! They’re not welcome.
October 27th, 2021 at 12:03 PM ^
FauxMo is right. I think it's widely understood that the end goal of Vegas is to get an exact 50/50 split for every game, because then Vegas makes 5% of the total action that week. What some people don't get is that a 50/50 split is best achieved by setting an opening line that is as accurate as possible to avoid heavy, unbalanced professional action on 1 side that opens a liability for the casino.
Another thing ppl like FreddieMercuryHayes and Red Is Blue get wrong is equating the betting influence of a singular fan base like Michigan with the "Public" as a whole. Public perception is a factor in line setting because the aggregate amateur money on any given football weekend is a material portion of the total action. But any single fan base will be (at most) 2-3% of the total amateur handle, so the "WOOO Michigan" sentiment by itself isn't enough to move a line.
October 28th, 2021 at 10:08 PM ^
No problem with someone critizing me for something I actually said. But I didn't say what you implied i said about the influence of a single fanbase. I simply agreed with the point that Vegas wants 50/50 money. They don't really care if they make an accurate prediction.
For a hypothetical example, suppose that Vegas has secret information that leads them to a different, more accurate, prediction. The "vegas method" predicts that Michigan wins by 10, while the general consensus is Michigan wins by 4. The line would be set at 4, even though 10 is a more accrurate expectation. Again, a hypothetical example, because it is highly unlikely that the secret information held by Vegas doesn't seep out into the general consensus bringing those expectations together. Very likely the they are very close, but Vegas wants to predict what the general consensus will be (to get 50/50 money) not what the score will be.
October 27th, 2021 at 10:32 AM ^
Depending on what metric you use Michigan is either a little better or a lot better- In FEI, Michigan is #4 while Staae is 26- that is a huge difference. Michigan is better at every position other than wide receiver, maybe corners - not sure on QB
October 27th, 2021 at 10:46 AM ^
If the home field is generally worth 3 points then would Michigan be favored by around 7 points on a neutral field (4.5 points spread plus MSU loses 3 pt home field advantage) and 10 points at Michigan (4.5 spread plus MSU loses 3 pt home field plus Michigan gains 3 pt home field)? Or does the approximate 3 pt home field advantage relative to if you were playing on your opponents field.
That being said, in recent years, it appears as if there is a home field disadvantage in this game as the away team has frequently won.
October 27th, 2021 at 11:16 AM ^
If home field is a 3-point advantage, 4 becomes 10, not 7.
October 27th, 2021 at 11:38 AM ^
Action Network has home field advantage at Michigan State worth about 1.1 points.
https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/home-field-advantage-college-football-betting-2021
October 27th, 2021 at 2:26 PM ^
State isn't that great. Like yes, we are all well aware of our team's weaknesses but MSU has them too. And their biggest strength, the run game, has totally disappeared at times. Our running game has been what has won close games for us. We're likely to win, but of course, that's why they play the games.
October 27th, 2021 at 5:31 PM ^
Agreed. The better team doesn't always win. State is a good team but Michigan has looked better against better competition. MSU/Tucker make you pay for mistakes as they are known for big offensive plays and not for grinding down the field. IF, IF, IF Michigan limits big plays then they are likely to win.
October 27th, 2021 at 10:01 AM ^
Wow, did the line shift toward UM so far? I though it opened at -2 or -3
October 27th, 2021 at 10:29 AM ^
There were early lines last week at about -2. Then when actual opening lines came out this week I haven't seen it below 3.5 anywhere.
October 27th, 2021 at 10:10 AM ^
Sounds about right although I’d rather be an underdog. I also think Iowa plays inspired and thumps Wiscy. Could care less about the other games honestly.
October 27th, 2021 at 10:55 AM ^
I also think Iowa plays inspired and thumps Wiscy
If Wisconsin keeps Mertz to under 8 passing attempts (or less if possible), then Wisconsin will win this game. Their run game is finally coming alive and that defense is so good that they can compete with better teams even if their offense is a clown show. Iowa's offense is similarly awful and their defense is starting to come back down to Earth as team's stop throwing picks right at their secondary. Wisconsin simply needs to pound the rock on every play and never let Mertz have a chance to give the ball away.
October 27th, 2021 at 10:10 AM ^
That line seems too high to me; UM is better than MSU but not by that great a margin.
October 27th, 2021 at 10:23 AM ^
Line should be UM -1.5. That will wind up a push, as we will beat them by exactly 1 1/2 points.
October 27th, 2021 at 10:48 AM ^
Ah, the old 1 1/2 point play.