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Date Title Body
11/16/2018 - 6:33pm Western and Clemson games…

Western and Clemson games look better for Syracuse for key turnover in favor of the Orange.  Move one win into the loss column (I know, dangerous because most anyone can do that) and you get a better picture of where Syracuse is at with respect to the rest of the field.

11/16/2018 - 6:30pm Thank you.  I am so tired of…

Thank you.  I am so tired of some people acting like ND stomped on NW which maybe they did but only after two DBs went down.

11/16/2018 - 6:25pm Syracuse picked up 10 points…

Syracuse picked up 10 points on Clemson turnovers at the 30 and 10 yard lines.  Kind of like MSU's score against Michigan.  This game was all Clemson except the score and the turnovers.  Syracuse is overated.

11/13/2018 - 10:04pm It is as if the committee…

It is as if the committee refuses to review significant games or anomalies.  Syracuse looks good against Clemson and defeats Western Michigan as both those teams have worse than average games for hanging onto the football.  Northwestern looks bad because they had two early games where they insisted on giving away the ball.  Somehow the committee members are not paying attention.  I don't believe we should rank teams as if they would play their worst game on a regular basis.  Pick your favorite computer ranking and then work out the anomalies.  Check the eye test, please.  On the other hand, maybe teams 15 to 40 are the same and it barely matters. 

11/13/2018 - 9:27pm So this indicates that…

So this indicates that Alabama will miss the CFP if they lose to Georgia since they beat a bunch of cupcakes and they didn't win their conference.

11/13/2018 - 7:22pm Syracuse has a defense that…

Syracuse has a defense that is about 50th in the NCAA depending on the stat  of your choice.  That means that the 3 turnovers by Clemson and the 2 turnovers by Western Michigan were random events or gifts.  Using that technique we could eliminate half of the top 30 but I just can't consider a win over Syracuse to be a notable win.

11/12/2018 - 9:48pm Their resume isn't great. …

Their resume isn't great.  The consensus of the statistical rating models is that Michigan and Georgia should be ahead of the Irish but it is hard to leave out an undefeated that beat a conference champ and the others all have at least one loss.

11/12/2018 - 3:57pm Nice group.  I would add…

Nice group.  I would add Fantastic Four for my personal list.  RIP Stan Lee

11/11/2018 - 8:54pm Stop worrying.  The plan is…

Stop worrying.  The plan is to get better every week and if that happens . . . I recommend that you think very big.  The Wolverines would have to find a way to win in week fashion with perhaps some injuries in order to be left out after winning out.  In other words, I believe the committee will get it right.  Oddly, the calculated ratings seem to agree that a one loss Michigan is more worthy than an undefeated ND and that is the real issue.

11/11/2018 - 7:13pm I like your summary better…

I like your summary better than mine.  I think you are spot on.  Those may be the most relevant statistics and related facts.

11/11/2018 - 7:03pm I thought Indiana would do…

I thought Indiana would do better this year and they did give MSU and PSU all they could handle however they appear to be degrading as the season moves on.  They only beat Maryland because Maryland turned the ball over 4 times.  27-28 point gap is in most of the statistical rankings.  Hot seat report indicates that Coach Allen is in a warm but affordable seat.  They don't seem to be improving compared to last year.  Senior day for a few walk-ons?

PSU got much of their big play reputation based on play in Bloomington.

11/11/2018 - 11:15am I get your point but I am…

I get your point but I am also aware that NW played ND even until NW had two game ending injuries in their defensive backfield.  So I think Michigan has passed ND.

11/10/2018 - 7:42pm I knew NW had a shot at…

I knew NW had a shot at winning the west because they had a good number of seniors and the ususal Pat Fitzgerald discipline.  I then [edit] thought they were toast after all the injuries ( running back in particular).  I suspect that Iowa is really not as good as some were saying earlier in the season.   It will be fun to see what Don Brown can come up with the second time around assuming that Michigan beats OSU.

11/10/2018 - 7:34pm I don't know about…

I don't know about appropriate content.  I find the direction/results of Purdue's football program to be hysterical given Marcus's earlier comments.  I also find the comment that we should stop feeding this topic to also be of great amusement.  Maybe I should stop drinking.

11/09/2018 - 9:02pm Stella Artois

Stella Artois

11/09/2018 - 11:12am Prime time viewing, no less

Prime time viewing, no less

11/08/2018 - 8:42pm ACC bias is sad and…

ACC bias is sad and indefensible.  The bowl results will show the current CFP rankings are sick.

11/07/2018 - 8:14pm Notre Dame and MSU could…

Notre Dame and MSU could each lose a game and the result would would only assure that a Michigan team that wins out stays in the CFP or replaces ND in the CFP.

11/07/2018 - 8:01pm Georgia is not likely to win…

Georgia is not likely to win so it doesn't matter.   However, if they do win then Notre Dame gets left out.  Georgia is in the top 4 in most rankings but typically behind Michigan.  The committee got the list correct at this time except there is no reason for the ACC teams to be ranked that high.  Notre Dame crushing Syracuse may fix that.

If Michigan wins out then it is hard to imagine a scenario where they can justify keeping them out.  I suppose ND is keeping their offense under wraps but then it took two key DB injuries for them to get by NW.

11/07/2018 - 7:27pm Syracuse has little chance…

Syracuse has little chance of winning that game.

11/05/2018 - 8:51pm The weather was cold and…

The weather was cold and cloudy on that day in 1986. Losing their coach Lou Holtz to Notre Dame, the Gophers lost to MSU and OSU by more than four scores earlier in the season.The Wolverines were super flat.   It was awful.  Minnesota refused to go away.  The Michigan defense chased Rickey Foggie all day.  Yeah, not a great day.

Hard to believe that Bo let it happen.  Hrbaugh followed the game with his famous guarantee.  However, I don't think 2018 Rutgers or even Indiana are 1986 Minnesota although Indiana has a nice offense but the team seems to be in a tailspin.

11/04/2018 - 9:42pm Yes, I saw that two.  He was…

Yes, I saw that too.  He was tackled by two guys putting him to the ground and landing on top of him.  He was kind of sideways on his shoulder as he hit the ground.  To his credit, he stayed to take the next snap but it seemed that his fake after the handoff took him straight to the bench.

11/04/2018 - 9:37pm Funny, I heard Fowler say…

Funny, I heard Fowler say that but from the context he did not need the clarification.  The tone was dark and ominous as he said it.  No way was he talking about the possibility of a PSU comeback.  It was all about the idea was that there was more hell to pay.

11/04/2018 - 4:40pm I also thought I heard, "We…

Great stuff

11/03/2018 - 7:37pm close!

 

close!

 

11/03/2018 - 8:32am Michigan 41-27

Michigan 41-27

Just to be different.  Big (long) plays both sides.  Defensive scores both sides.  Better team wins.  Outcome has little doubt entering the 4th quarter.

10/31/2018 - 7:38pm Totally agree.  I thought…

Totally agree.  I thought Mattison's defenses under Hoke were top 10 defenses and in some years top 5 but you can't give the opposing offense 80 tries to test the angles and probe weaknesses.  Instead, Michigan defense floated between top 15 and top 30.

10/30/2018 - 7:13pm Great summary.  I remember…

Great summary.  I remember about half of it.  The snowballs were something that I forgot about.  Losing the game and getting pelted by snowballs.  It was an awful afternoon.

10/30/2018 - 1:16pm Woody Hayes taught me to…

Woody Hayes taught me to look at last year’s post game interview for additional insight.  e.g. Bo told me he was going to throw on play action fake taken from comment from Bo that he would NOT play for a tie next year.

B. Kelly’s game plans reflect previous year’s comments e.g.  we over estimated Michigan’s offense which is code for your QB is in over his head but adults don’t name names of young men.  Hence the whooping the next year with the same QB.

10/29/2018 - 10:28pm Interesting observation with…

Interesting observation with respect to Taylor and Sanders.  Most on this board were surprised that Wisconsin didn't run Taylor more and at two points it appeared that Christ outsmarted himself and called pass plays that didn't work (or punted on 4th down) when in my imagination it was a foregone conclusion that Wisconsin would get the 1st down running.

10/29/2018 - 9:59pm It was so obvious that Iowa…

It was so obvious that Iowa was gambling  on that play that even the analysts noted that the Iowa defense was aligned with the assumption that McSorley couldn't run.  McSorley made them pay for that assumption.  Iowa had no one on McSorley and no one back as a safety.  Brown won't make that mistake.

10/29/2018 - 9:51pm Penn State does have a big…

Penn State does have a big play offense and generally has one very big and one moderately big play a game which go for scores.  So their point is that if Michigan stumbles offensively and leaves points on field (a la MSU) then it will be a dog fight. And as they stated, PSU has a better defense and defensive line than NW (slightly) so maybe PSU hangs around long enough to pull the James Franklin stunner (a la OSU and Wisconsin in 2016.)

So the plan is to stop McSorley (QB), Sanders (RB), and Hamler (WR).  Hmmm, McSorley sure played well against App St, Kent St, and Indiana.  If the offense has continued to improve during the bye week (no rust?) then an efficient Jim Harbaugh offense just might be enough.

10/28/2018 - 9:24pm Well, it may be said that…

Well, it may be said that Michigan still hasn't beaten a good team this year but the Wolverines have a ball control offense that can keep McSorley on the bench.  Past defensive failures were preceded by offenses that couldn't get first downs and PSU is giving up a lot of first downs.  Iowa had an amazing 23 first downs while controlling the ball for 35 minutes.  Past performance indicates that Michigan should do as well.  A neat thing about the Wolverine offense getting first downs is that it gives the coaches more in-game time to coach and adjust the defense.

As you indicated, we hope to see things play out as predicted.

10/28/2018 - 8:20pm Well, Mark D did say…

Well, Mark D did say something similar after last year's game.  He likes to build up his opponents to keep the chip on their shoulders and it makes his record at MSU look better.

I think he is sincere.  I also think it is meaningless.

10/28/2018 - 8:07pm MSU had the #1 run defense,…

MSU had the #1 run defense, a #25 rank after beating PSU, and were playing at home.  We all know that the transitive property doesn't carry a lot of weight in NCAA football but UM beats MSU by 14 and MSU beats PSU by 4 then UM should be able to beat PSU by more than 11.   Plus PSU has no obvious advantage other than McSorley magic which I am hoping has run out.

PSU is not strong with respect to seniors or tall receivers (Notre Dame had/has both.)

10/28/2018 - 7:58pm Yes, Penn State has a more…

Yes, Penn State has a more than decent football team but Illinois was leading them in the THIRD quarter (with the benefit of only one turnover) and ended with 26 first downs.  I love Iowa (except for certain well known cases) and Kirk Ferentz (Michigan offered him the HC position at one time) but they lack depth and experience and fancy stats and the eye test.  Iowa is only well ranked at the moment because they effectively beat most of their less ranked opponents.  How good does Wisconsin look now?  Michigan can't claim a big win and Iowa can't claim a good loss.

Yes, I am biased but I am willing to look at all the numbers and I cannot ignore them. 

10/28/2018 - 5:58pm ^  What he said.

^  What he said.

10/28/2018 - 5:45pm Over/under is 68.8 so…

Over/under is 68.8 so someone thinks Michigan is going to put up some numbers.

[Edit] Per OddsShark, not sure about reliability.  It does seem high but I found it interesting.

10/28/2018 - 5:30pm 68.8 points total

UM 41 …

68.8 points total

UM 41  PSU 27??  

Stats indicate PSU has to break 28 to win

I suppose both the total and the spread will decrease in the coming days.

10/28/2018 - 4:58pm PSU has no defense.  Iowa…

PSU has a weak defense.  Iowa missed several opportunities to win the game and Iowa isn't as good as their record.  Michigan's offense is more efficient (edit- than PSU’s offense) although less flashy or at least less high scoring against opponents with less talent.  I wish I was more bold on the prediction.  It is just that karma thing.  I don't want to get too excited.

10/28/2018 - 4:49pm Crap.  I missed it.  Thank …

Crap.  I missed it.  Thank  you.

10/28/2018 - 4:39pm Good post!  I was afraid…

Good post!  I was afraid there wouldn't be weather post.

10/28/2018 - 3:48pm UM -7

It is funny how the…

UM -7

It is funny how the pointy ball bounces but a fast start by Michigan would make my day.

10/28/2018 - 3:02pm Franklin runs up the score…

Franklin runs up the score against weaker opponents.  Even advanced stats cannot completely factor out coaches that scheme to score at the end of close games.  It appears to me that Franklin chooses to score when others would choose to run the clock.

10/28/2018 - 2:54pm Dear Mr. Toboggan,  I agree…

Dear Mr. Toboggan,  I agree.  I thought it was possible for PSU to lose as many as 5 games this year but Pitt turned the ball over and Indiana continues to come up short in game after game in spite having some admirable tools.  Franklin continues to push for late points to impress the uninformed.

If McSorley cannot move laterally this Saturday, then PSU may be shutout. 

Defining the mark of a good team is slippery.  If you are expecting an invitation to the CFP then an 8-4 team ranked 16 is not very good but that is good for many teams.

10/27/2018 - 9:32pm No kidding.  I am in the…

No kidding.  I am in the same boat.  I got a pacemaker on Tuesday and I have spent perhaps too much time on this blog.

10/27/2018 - 7:15pm Run game is not terribly…

Run game is not terribly effective in the red zone.  RB's are smaller.  They don't have fullbacks like Harbaugh.

10/27/2018 - 7:12pm I took it as a statement of…

I took it as a statement of fact and something currently affecting the game.

10/27/2018 - 6:05pm Ignorant?

Ignorant?

10/27/2018 - 9:40am Franklin got my attention…

Franklin got my attention when he took Vanderbilt to a bowl game but upon further review it means he took a 50th (advanced stats) ranked team and found a way to beat all the teams ranked lower.   Apparently he runs up the score as his wins over lesser opponents are by large margins but he rarely beats teams ranked higher as in he had no "big" wins at Vandy.  The Vanderbilt story is a house of cards.  He has a history of padding the stats.

On the other hand, he actually complimented Indiana play last week which is the first time I heard him credit the opposition for anything.

Today, I hope to find the answer to whether Iowa is good or PSU is bad.