ESPN Playoff Predictor gives over 50% chance to UM making playoff with one loss
November 8th, 2022 at 1:02 AM ^
Clemson still having a 31% chance seems... generous.
So, for the conspiracy theorists... This predicts Big Ten's best chance of getting 2 teams in is for OSU to lose to Michigan (OSU still has 71% chance).
November 8th, 2022 at 7:20 AM ^
Beat Nebraska
November 8th, 2022 at 7:34 AM ^
I’d say, let’s just beat the rails off them like last year and expose them for the frauds they are.
standing on third base thinking they hit a triple.
November 8th, 2022 at 10:09 AM ^
In what alternate universe does anyone believe that Clemson actually has any chance - much less a 31% chance - of making the CFP?
November 8th, 2022 at 10:41 AM ^
Clemson won't get in because they are amazing, it's just that they have a great chance of winning the ACC and finishing with one loss.
There's a decent chance that the winners of both the PAC 12 and BIG 12 could finish with 2 losses. If that happens, it is very possible that you have 2 SEC teams, one Big 10 team, and Clemson.
November 8th, 2022 at 11:01 AM ^
Delhi, I cannot see how Clemson would get in over the one loss B1G East team that loses on November 26th.
Respectfully, I share that it is possible - but, IMO, if you've watched Clemson play this year - they have not looked like a Top 4 team in ANY game they've played this season.
November 8th, 2022 at 11:09 AM ^
Especially when that one loss team is the Buckeyes -- the team that beat ND which beat Clemson. Transitive properties and all that...
November 8th, 2022 at 12:04 PM ^
But that 31% probability covers a lot of possibilities.
-The UM-OSU loser doesn't have only one loss
-TCU loses
-Tennessee loses again
-No Pac-12 team finishes with only one loss
Etc.
Individually none of these (other than maybe TCU losing) is very likely, but collectively, they add up.
November 8th, 2022 at 5:20 PM ^
To clarify my point, I'm not saying that's how I would vote. But I think the committee would be inclined to vote that way because it's Clemson, and they would be a one loss conference champ.
I don't think the committee will put in 2 SEC teams AND 2 Big 10 teams if there's another power 5 conference with a one loss conference champ. Shutting out 3 other P5 conferences would be a bridge too far unless the PAC12, ACC, and Big12 all have 2 loss conf champs.
November 8th, 2022 at 1:29 PM ^
That's the scenario where you get two big ten teams though. Clemson has no case over a one loss OSU or Michigan.
November 8th, 2022 at 11:41 AM ^
If they win out and other teams lose (and many of them will), they have a chance at 12-1.
November 8th, 2022 at 10:30 AM ^
If two B1G teams get in in it will because Michigan beats OSU. I do not think we will get the same benefit of the doubt.
November 8th, 2022 at 11:10 AM ^
We might have had a better chance if Illinois and Maryland continued to win out, and got ranked.
But they of course blew it, losing to Michigan State and Wisconsin this last week, so now our only ranked win if we lost to Ohio State would be Penn State, who's also being treated like shit in the rankings.
Ohio State can fall back on Notre Dame, who gets ranked if they show any sort of competence despite their horrible losses. It is what it is. Beat Ohio.
November 8th, 2022 at 11:42 AM ^
We won't have played as difficult of a schedule is the reason.
November 8th, 2022 at 11:54 AM ^
Clemson did play - and defeat - both Furman and Louisiana Tech. Those were home games.
And, of course, they traveled to play ND in South Bend - but, we all know how that turned out.
November 8th, 2022 at 12:14 PM ^
Maybe. But I think playing OSU on the road has to count for something. If we win decisively over NE and IL and then lose to the Buckeyes 31-28, it would be hard not to consider us one of the best 4 teams.
November 8th, 2022 at 10:47 AM ^
Never understood all of the love for Clemson. They play the weakest schedule - year in and year out.
We just have to hope for more chaos in the SEC and all of the other teams in the Big 12 and PAC end up with at least one loss. If that happens, the B1G will get 2 teams in no matter what happens in THE GAME
I can't stand Texas but will be pulling for them hard in their game against TCU in a couple of weeks.
November 8th, 2022 at 11:04 AM ^
1972, Texas hosts TCU this weekend - on Saturday evening. Then, TCU will travel to Baylor (on November 19th), and host Iowa State on November 26th.
November 8th, 2022 at 3:56 PM ^
Thanks, didn't realize it was that close. Will have to see if I have anything "burnt orange" around as I'll be pulling for Texas bigtime. Boy, it pains me to say that
November 8th, 2022 at 1:41 AM ^
If we lose The Game, it'll likely come down to either a one-loss UT or UM for the last playoff spot. I'm fairly confident UT gets in because they have a W against Alabama.
So root hard against Tennessee (they have a cupcake schedule), and if that doesn't work out, we better beat the Buckeyes.
November 8th, 2022 at 5:59 AM ^
Bama is over valued. That aren't a typical Bama this year. They could easily have 4 losses. Penn St on the other hand has lost to possibly the #2, and #3 ranked teams. SEC bias is still strong.
November 8th, 2022 at 8:04 AM ^
There's no "possibly" about it - PSU lost, literally, to the #2 and #3 teams.
November 8th, 2022 at 9:19 AM ^
Pretty sure he meant "possibly" in that they may still end the season as 2 and 3, or at least go into THE GAME that way.
November 8th, 2022 at 8:07 AM ^
You’re not wrong, but the optics of beating Nick Saban and an Alabama team, regardless of whether or not they are as strong as a vintage Alabama team, are better than beating James Franklin and Penn State.
If it comes down to a one loss Tennessee and a one loss Michigan, it’s almost certainly falling to Tennessee. Only way I could see Tennessee losing out over Michigan is if The Game is a back and forth all time classic where Michigan loses by three or less, and then if Tennessee looks a little sluggish after the beatdown.
Tennessee has wins over LSU and Alabama right now. They’re going to get the benefit of the doubt right now that Michigan just won’t. That’s why short of more chaos, Michigan is almost certainly going to have to beat OSU to get in.
Shouldn’t have canceled that UCLA series, Warde. If you lose the OSU game, that could seriously come back to bite you.
November 8th, 2022 at 8:16 AM ^
Agreed, I don't think you'll find many people who will argue beating Penn State is a better win than beating Alabama. And Tennessee's beat two 7 win teams. Our second best win is what, a one score victory over 3 loss Maryland? Or a road win over 4 loss Iowa?
November 8th, 2022 at 9:20 AM ^
Well, if we win The Game, our second best win will be blowing out PSU. Or that might even be our third best, depending on how Illinois goes. Sure that game lost some luster after they got beat by STAEE, but they are still a very good football team.
November 8th, 2022 at 9:08 AM ^
Oh, Tennessee could have lost by 30 and ESPN would still beat that drum as hard as they could to get a 2nd SEC team in come the final selection. Considering that ESPN also airs the playoffs, they'll get their wish. The fist rankings were 100% the results of ESPN influence to aid their conference and hurt their rival.
November 8th, 2022 at 8:24 AM ^
You can say they are overvalued but would a single person here pick psu to beat bama?
November 8th, 2022 at 9:09 AM ^
Maybe. They didn't look good against Texas A&M and barely beat Texas. I would take PSU over Texas 6 out of 10.
November 8th, 2022 at 10:31 AM ^
You move those goal posts!
November 8th, 2022 at 10:44 AM ^
Is that game a night game whiteout in Happy Valley?
November 8th, 2022 at 7:31 AM ^
Beat Nebraska.
November 8th, 2022 at 9:03 AM ^
Don't know why this was downvoted. The point is, we need to win every game and that means focusing on the opponent directly ahead of you.
November 8th, 2022 at 9:29 AM ^
I didn't downvote but daily reminder that we are fans, not players or coaches. It literally does not matter what we focus on in terms of on the field outcome. I ate a barrel of Halloween candy and skipped the gym yesterday. I think the football team will survive my lack of focus.
November 8th, 2022 at 9:18 AM ^
Hoping Bama is deflated and packs it in and drops another, or for UT to get tripped up
November 8th, 2022 at 11:11 AM ^
Abides, I believe Bama travels to Oxford for their game against Ole Miss this weekend. I'll be cheering for Lane Kiffin and his squad.
Bama isn't going to lose next weekend when Austin Peay comes to Tuscaloosa, and Auburn's not going to put up much of a fight on November 26th.
So, if Bama's going to incur their third loss of the season, it's got to be this weekend. Go Rebels.
November 8th, 2022 at 10:04 AM ^
Ehh I’m not excited about getting in as a one-loss 4 seed and getting drilled by Georgia again.
If we lose to osu, I’d rather play a winnable rose bowl vs USC.
November 8th, 2022 at 2:42 PM ^
Wouldn't be so defeatist. Georgia is very good, but not as good as last year. Win that game and the last one isn't as hard. That being said, I'd much rather win The Game, get the 2 seed, and play Georgia in the finals in LA instead of in the semis in Altanta.
November 8th, 2022 at 11:44 AM ^
They also have a 27-point win over LSU. They will definitely be in over us if we're both 11-1. Their wins will be much better.
November 8th, 2022 at 2:11 AM ^
Shame we aren’t going to have any losses to test this theory…
November 8th, 2022 at 6:59 AM ^
Yeah, a shame. ESPN predictor gives a 100% chance of making the play-offs if we win out.
November 8th, 2022 at 2:11 AM ^
Seriously, calculating how to back into the playoffs after an assumed loss to OSU is peak Michigan fandom. Please stop. Get help. Put the last 16 years behind you. Time to move forward. "Win the game."
November 8th, 2022 at 2:16 AM ^
Win the game, again. 42-27
more wins, more head to head wins, more B1G championships, more national championships, less scandals, and well over 1,000 days since osu has won the Game. it’s a tough time to be a buckeye fan.
Go blue!
November 8th, 2022 at 8:59 AM ^
I don’t think MI gives up 27. More like 30-23
November 8th, 2022 at 9:22 AM ^
Fewer scandals.
/pedantry
November 8th, 2022 at 2:46 PM ^
It's not peak depressed Michigan fandom, it's just peak fandom. Many fans think through scenarios and derive rooting interests for all games from their team. We don't have practice to go to to get ready for The Game or anything, so we do this for entertainment. You don't have to participate if you don't want to.
November 8th, 2022 at 5:41 AM ^
That’s pretty neat and everything but it’s kind of redundant since Michigan will have zero losses.
November 8th, 2022 at 6:04 AM ^
I don't think 1-loss Michigan is getting in over 1-loss Big12/Pac12/ACC champ or 1-loss Tennessee or Georgia. This is the year we should have scheduled Notre Dame! Unless there are upsets in all the major conferences, we better beat Ohio.
November 8th, 2022 at 10:12 AM ^
I think 11-1 Michigan gets in over Clemson or UNC if the loss to OSU is close. The Big 12 and PAC-12 champ probably need to have 2 losses in that scenario.
November 8th, 2022 at 11:46 AM ^
We should have just kept the game against UCLA that we already had on the schedule.