Bill Connelly breaks down why this game isn't a walk for Michigan
People have been talking on this board like OSU is a 7-5 team that will only beat Michigan if Michigan spectacularly fails. The reality is OSU is a top 10 team to S&P including a top 5 offense and despite their big play problems are still a top 40 defense. If our big plays aren't turning into TD's and instead turn into field goals we are losing this game. This game is a 55-60% lean, it is by no means one over matched team just hoping to keep it close like Michigan was trying last year. This is going to be a tough game that is going to need Michigan to play its best game of the year to win.
https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/11/19/18101061/ohio-state-michigan-game-2018-preview-analysis
November 19th, 2018 at 4:06 PM ^
Ohio State isn't fully healthy. Nobody in CFB fully healthy at the end of November.
November 19th, 2018 at 4:11 PM ^
Totally agree, but doesn't change my opinion. They are deeper than we are.
November 19th, 2018 at 4:56 PM ^
I agree with your overall point but Luke Fickell had all suspended players back for the Michigan game. 7 starters suspend for the first 4 games including MSU and Robiskey ? #1WR out for 7-8 games.
November 19th, 2018 at 3:35 PM ^
That poor strawman never stood a chance...
November 19th, 2018 at 3:37 PM ^
I believe this will be a very close game, but I also feel like if Michigan brings there A game and does not start out slow that they could win by 3 scores if they come out blazing and take the life out of them early, but lets be honest its going to come down to the wire.
November 19th, 2018 at 3:44 PM ^
OP delete this nonsense
November 19th, 2018 at 3:46 PM ^
OK, I'll bite, if Michigan plays their normal game, they'll beat OSU by a couple TDs. If they play like they did against Indiana where the D regressed to overpursuit and the redzone offense sucked, they'll lose.
November 19th, 2018 at 3:47 PM ^
Ohio State got boatraced by Purdue. Got super lucky to get out of Maryland with a win. Nebraska shot themselves in the foot and gave that game away as did Frames Janklin. So really this is, performance wise, a 4-loss OSU team coming into The Game.
There are no ghosts, the better team will win.
November 19th, 2018 at 3:48 PM ^
Here's why this won't be a cake walk. According to 247 this is the average talent ranking of the 10 most talented in college football.
1. OSU
2. Bama
3. GA
4. USC
5. FSU
6. Clemson
7. LSU
8. UM
9. Texas
10. Notre Dame
The good news is a top 10 class every year probably puts you in range of a potential NC. The bad news is OSU is more talented than UM. This means that they have underacheived in many of their games this year. Assuming they finally play up to their ability in the game, this won't be an easy game.
https://247sports.com/Season/2018-Football/CollegeTeamTalentComposite/
November 19th, 2018 at 4:09 PM ^
Good input on apparent player quality (even if that talent assessment occurred before college entry). The equation has to add coaches + scheme, though. It will be a good contest.
November 19th, 2018 at 4:12 PM ^
Totally agree.
November 19th, 2018 at 7:48 PM ^
USC, FSU, Texas ....... O now i get it, stars don't matter for winning games as much as they do for preseason "mis" rankings.
November 19th, 2018 at 3:49 PM ^
This game has rarely been a cakewalk for OSU, even when we when Michigan was in our dark period.
November 19th, 2018 at 3:49 PM ^
Never easy. Here's a reminder of the last W in Columbus.
November 19th, 2018 at 3:58 PM ^
November 19th, 2018 at 5:26 PM ^
And then this guy picks up a phone...
November 19th, 2018 at 4:05 PM ^
Well, you know, this is from an actual analyst at SBNATION, so we have to pay attention to it.
Or not.
November 19th, 2018 at 4:06 PM ^
This version of The Game = A Christmas Story
Michigan = Ralphie
OSU = The Bullies
We have taken our last snowball in the face.
Old fart here; I will rely on one of you youngins to post the appropriate movie clip from the Instatubes.
The End.
November 19th, 2018 at 9:48 PM ^
Scut Farkus goes down!
November 20th, 2018 at 9:31 AM ^
Thank you very much, sir!
November 19th, 2018 at 4:09 PM ^
It’s a rivalry game, of course it’s not gonna be a cakewalk. How many of our bad teams over the past decade almost beat their teams?
November 19th, 2018 at 4:10 PM ^
By the very definition of S&P+ this game shouldn't be a cake walk. Haskins can sling it as evidenced by his emergence in the game last year. I wouldn't be surprised if they just went with a passing spread for the vast majority of the game. The game has an inordinate amount at stake, they will be the best offense outside of Notre Dame we have faced this year, and it is a rivalry game. I think anyone who says otherwise is either ignorant, naive, or both. But if Harbaugh loses this game it is not some referendum on him as a coach or on the program. Just like being 1-2 against Dantonio and all that other nonsense. He is building a great program that we can be proud of and that does things the right way. He is not going anywhere, independent of the results of this game. I literally want them to win this game so the inanity of recent program failures can be put to rest. It is not because I believe we are a massively superior team. The teams are fairly even, they are both great, and this game will be both exhilarating and painful to watch. Just like the Game has always been and is meant to be.
November 19th, 2018 at 4:10 PM ^
This game is a coin flip that will likely go with whomever wins turn overs.
M Pros
- Performed better this year relative to OSU
- Solid on both sides of the ball whereas OSU D is a mess
- Mobile QB on a quality UM team for the first time in forever (RR and Hoke years don't count)
- Urban is distracted, mental
- JH has likely loaded the cupboard for this one after going 0-3.
- Finally facing an OSU QB who is not all that mobile
- Better for BIG if UM wins for likely playoff
M Cons
- While the D is a mess, OSU's offense can be as explosive as any in the country.
- In the Shoe. Tack on 4 points just for that.
- Referees. Tack on 7 points there. Expect minimum 5 PI calls against UM, 2 non-called OSU personal fouls, and 3 non-called holds on their O line.
- OSU still has talent and is still 10-1
- Chase likely not playing (my personal take, no info backing that up).
- Recent history
- Delaney hates UM
I have no take on who will win this game and my faith 100% rests on just how much JH and DB have stored for this game in order to overcome all the cons.
November 19th, 2018 at 4:41 PM ^
maybe this year it will be different with the refs. Delaney knows if we get to the B1G Championship, we get to the CFP with a win. If O$U wins, they would be on the periphery of consideration. So now that there is more money in it for the B1G if Michigan wins, expect a better outcome from the officials..
November 19th, 2018 at 4:11 PM ^
OP: No shit
November 19th, 2018 at 4:11 PM ^
Gotta beat the refs too this time.
November 19th, 2018 at 4:19 PM ^
Michigan has to beat the refs EVERY time. We should get extra love from the CFPC for that alone. I mean it's tough enough to beat ONE opponent every Saturday, let alone two!
November 19th, 2018 at 4:13 PM ^
I don't think Michigan needs to play it's best game of year to win. Michigan needs to play it's best game of year to win comfortably. If they play like they played against PSU they will still win. If they play like they did against Notre Dame, they lose.
Not one Michigan player or coach is not taking OSU seriously. Watch the interviews. This team is taking OSU very seriously and is laser focused. I expect Michigan to win. I do think there is something special going on with this team.
November 19th, 2018 at 4:17 PM ^
Fuck off, OP. No one here expects this game to be easy and you know it. You're just being dramatic for the clicks.
November 19th, 2018 at 4:21 PM ^
If you looked at the S&P+ for both teams in the last 6 games only, we'd be way ahead of them I bet. Granted the other games happened, but you also have to consider that one team has been pretty consistently trending up and the other down.
November 19th, 2018 at 4:27 PM ^
Man I love me some concern trolling. AK you gotta be a miserable person in RL.
November 19th, 2018 at 4:30 PM ^
Chain button next to the italic “I.” Paste the link in the box. Link posts. It’s really easy.
November 19th, 2018 at 4:46 PM ^
Yah don't say. Yah don't fucking say!!! A team that has owned us for the last 15 years isn't a walk for us? Really?
November 19th, 2018 at 5:07 PM ^
The first 2 items are the same (compliments). Otherwise, can someone enlighten me? And not terribly likely. #3 with refs calling DPI could be a big problem.
Fancy stats seem to be biased by wins so a team that pulled 3-4 marginal wins could have some biased predictors. PSU is still crushing it on some of the computers. Also, Harbaugh calls games to win methodically which is hidden from most statistics.
Time will tell.
November 19th, 2018 at 5:07 PM ^
OSU pass defense is right there with Troy, Duke, Temple (FEI)
November 19th, 2018 at 5:17 PM ^
This is kinda a poopy post, man. From what I've read on this site, I think most people feel that Michigan's best effort is slightly better than OSU's best effort. It's the first time we've been able to say that in a loooong time, so maybe you're just misinterpreting this sentiment as overconfidence. A cakewalk this definitely will not be. But, Michigan is favored for a reason. Beat OSU!
November 19th, 2018 at 5:54 PM ^
I appreciate the post. It is surprising to me that OSU's defense is top 40. It certainly feels like they have to outscore even decent teams (see Maryland). No surprise that the offense is highly ranked. I anticipated this would be a tough game but now I am even more concerned. Thanks a lot. j/k
November 19th, 2018 at 6:36 PM ^
35-31 Michigan
November 19th, 2018 at 6:41 PM ^
Of course not.
Anything can and will happen in THE GAME in Columbus.
Ohio State has a number of things going for it:
1. #8 ranked scoring offense in the country, 42 pts per game, #1 in Big10
2. #4 passing attack in nation, 360 yards per game. #1 in Big10
The difference between Tom Herman and Kevin Wilson as OC is stark in that Ohio State has all but deleted QB runs from their playbook. Ohio State is a pass-centric, Kevin Wilson Indiana team for the first time in forever. This is ordinarily not a problem, except that Schiano has somehow replicated the Indiana defensive performance (9th in BIG10 in ypg, 7th in ppg). Unbelievable given Ohio State's recruiting dominance since Urban Meyer's arrival and Meyer's systems on both sides of the ball and special teams. Somehow Wilson and Schiano's tactics have screwed up Meyer's long-standing recipe for success.
Michigan has a number of things going for it:
1. #1 passing defense in the nation,including 4 pick six's tied with Alabama.
2. #3 scoring defense in the nation.
3/ #14 ranked rushing defense in the nation
4. An improved OL with a 1,000 yard rushing for first time since 2011.
5. Healthy, mobile QB for first time since Denard Robinson in 2011
6. Overall good team health and depth
On paper, Michigan wins this game decisively by probably double-digits. But what if?:
1. Weather? No. It's supposed to be dry, cloudy and 46 degrees (41 degree Real Feel)
2. Turnovers.
3. Refs. I mean, let's be honest, all college football refs suck because they are part timers, and largely incompetent. There is no way Michigan gets a break in this game in Ohio Stadium in front of that crowd. Ohio State's OL is the WORST IN THE NATION in non-holding calls, getting away with it. It will be no different in this game.
4. Ohio State is the toughest team Michigan has faced all season by a significant margin.
November 19th, 2018 at 11:47 PM ^
It all sounds like some bad movie.
November 19th, 2018 at 7:13 PM ^
I'm confused with who thought this was going to be a walk in the park? Old Billy can just take a look at the history of this rivalry and figure that one out. Not much of a hot take.
November 19th, 2018 at 7:14 PM ^
Like he said anything we didn’t already know. Real fans know it’s gonna be a dog fight Saturday
November 19th, 2018 at 7:23 PM ^
the game was never a walkover
November 19th, 2018 at 7:53 PM ^
Do you really have to break things down to come to the conclusion that this game “isn’t a walk” for Michigan? It should be obvious.
November 19th, 2018 at 7:55 PM ^
Maryland hung 51 points on them. We will be able to run on them, we will be able to pressure Haskins. We've been very successful in games with this dynamic. May be close, but I like our chances, especially in the 2nd half. We've been finishing strong all season.
November 19th, 2018 at 9:08 PM ^
All I want for Christmas is a Michigan win over aOSU Saturday and...
an 'ignore' button for specific posters here.
November 19th, 2018 at 9:18 PM ^
Reason number 1: JBB is hurt.
Reason number 2: Chase Winovich is hurt.
Those are crushing injuries and Indiana needs to pay for at least a decade for that second one (although, honestly, Chase looked hurt the instant he hit the ground).
I'm expecting a game decided by less than a field goal.
Apparently, I'm drinking the wrong Kool-aid.
But....
A Michigan victory would make at least some of the pain of the last decade and a half vanish.
November 19th, 2018 at 9:48 PM ^
Put some steel in your spines.
I dont care how many 5 stars and 4 stars they have. They've given up 89 points in 3 games. Michigan has given up 102 all year in the Big Ten.
Their all world QB playing against the only 2 decent defenses they've played this year in Michigan State and Penn State was 46-78 58%, 497 yards, 4 TDs 1 pick with 6.4 yards per completion.
That's not outstanding stuff guys. Yeah he throws for a billion yards in Ohio States gimmick offense against scrubs.
For comparison Shea was 25-42 59%, 356 yards, 4 tds 0 picks with 8.5 yards per completion.
Ohio State is an unbalanced, 1 dimensional team that doesn't play defense and relies on a 20 year old to throw 40 times a game to win barely.
I myself am growing more confident by the day
November 19th, 2018 at 11:43 PM ^
We need to get to Haskins early and make sure his head is on a swivel. Make him uncomfortable. Don't want to see the pass rush we had against IU. Give me the PSU, MSU, Wiscy pass rush. If that happens we'll be fine. The DL needs to set the tone.