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Date Title Body
12/12/2018 - 3:53pm I have to say this…

I have to say this recruitment flip has been one of the oddest I can remember and makes me believe it won't stick.   I think Alabama convinced him that Harbaugh was leaving to go to the pros and obviously provided him convincing evidence to that fact.   He has very smart parents and people in his circle.   This is a very bright kid.   There is no reason for him to switch from Michigan to Alabama because OSU boat raced us.   If Zach Harrison does that makes logical sense - those are the two schools he is deciding between.   But he always had Alabama as a serious contender for his services and everyone in his family felt far more comfortable with Michigan.   The bigger question in my mind is what type of CONCRETE facts was Alabama able to present that made Dax AND his family believe that Harbaugh would leave?   These are not dumb people so whatever facts were presented painted the possibility as high and Harbaugh in a bad light as someone who would be lying to him.   Logic would dictate that Nick Saban will leave Alabama before Harbaugh will leave Michigan.   They aren't getting paid - Dax's parents make a good living.  Playing time at Alabama will be far harder to come by and by their own admission a degree at Michigan will carry far more value than one from Alabama (these are Dax's parents saying this not me).   And he isn't signing early so some part of him must have believed that there might be truth to Harbaugh leaving but that it isn't concrete.   Losing one game, even if it is to OSU or in that fashion, wouldn't make this kid change his commitment.   Even he can see how radical a difference he would make to the defense.    

Something about all of this has seemed like very convincing lying by Alabama that Michigan is working aggressively to refute.   We will see the outcome but it certainly seems to me that the kid got hoodwinked and now is in a tough spot.

12/11/2018 - 10:31pm Why is it THE Ohio stats…

Why is it THE Ohio stats university? Is there some other Ohio state university?  This continues to perplex me.   Is it confused with something else? Like a community college that is THE community college for THE community?

12/11/2018 - 1:46pm They will almost certainly…

They will almost certainly lose to the Packers and likely to the Vikings as well. I will say I’m very impressed with what Patricia has done with the defense.   They are bereft of talent yet are becoming more competive as they absorb the scheme.    

He needs someone who can scheme and play call a creative run offense that passes off those run sets.   Without a hyper accurate west coast style QB (which Stafford is absolutely not) you need a Flacco offense.   Run a ton and throw intermediate and deep routes.   

12/11/2018 - 12:32pm This is impossible unless…

This is impossible unless some other random offensive weapon shows up that can remove bracket coverage from Golladay.   We have no TEs, no second wide receiver, and no RB 1 as Johnson is injured.   Hard to win without an offense. 

12/09/2018 - 12:57pm The game is but one…

The game is but one component and I don’t even believe that big of one.   Moore possibly leaving to OC at CMU, Harbaugh and the NFL, money, exposure.   One player, no matter how good, does not make or break a program.   Harbaugh beat Pete Carroll with a lot less talent.   This will get there. Who knows if any of you will be happy.   This fan base wanted to fire Beilein within the last couple of years.   Nothing it feels or says is a surprise anymore.

12/02/2018 - 10:44am I know this maybe odd to…

I know this maybe odd to people (not meant to be snarky) but sometimes you just don’t find a place to be a fit for your own intuitive reasons.    This was a REAL loss for the team - he was very good player and high end athlete.    I can’t speculate on his level of commitment or where he was in relation to Steuber but if he already felt out of place then losing a competition he felt he shouldn’t would be the straw.   My suspicion is Hudson maybe better but Steuber was more committed to do all the things necessary to improve.  This staff places a premium on that and that can grate certain people the wrong way.

11/28/2018 - 12:06pm Spot on again Mantis.  A…

Spot on again Mantis.  A brief comment on the defense. Ryan Day, much like Moorehead, knows Don Brown's playbook.   If there are adjustments, Day already knows what they are likely to be (zones, bracket coverage, etc).   Don Brown has zone packages but he doesn't play quarters all of a sudden to disrupt crossing routes.   That is not in his playbook from what I know and I'm sure Ryan Day knew that too.   The big surprise is the lack of pressure up the middle (stunt and twist action from the linebackers, etc).   The defensive line has looked anemic for the last couple of weeks and honestly just weaker than they have played all year.  Those two things are a surprise and likely go hand in hand in someway.   Regardless, this is the S&P+ number 4 offense so I'm not sure that result is as surprising on its face as people think.   

Again, from an analytics perspective, Pep hate is somewhat idiotic.   They can't do change routes with a group of WRs that are young and a quarterback that is honestly not mature yet in checks and reads.   He can make all the throws but he isn't preternatural in thinking the game like Dylan McCaffery to be honest.   My only complaint about the offense is not the plays themselves or the capability of the players at all.   It truly was the play calling.   I believe there are more limitations to the play calling than people think because of what the QBs and skill players can and can't do.   But not getting your playmakers in space to make plays is the component of creativity in the play calling of the offense that I hope will improve.   I don't know enough to say whether that is play design, execution or situational - which would put the blame on different people.   But based on the offseason changes, we will know that answer.   

I get the overreaction by people.   I really do.   But honestly this team and program are absolutely headed in the right direction.   Losing valiantly or getting boat raced doesn't change the narrative.  When you have playmakers everywhere and a creative way to call plays - then there is a lot more you can do.   This offense next year is going to be really, really good.   You will have tackles who can actually play tackle, TEs that can block and catch, WRs who can run routes and get separation, and RBs who will cause damage in space and between the hashes.   People are looking at Harbaugh like he isn't the dude who put up 55 on USC and forced Pete Carroll out of the Pac 10.  That guy doesn't all of a sudden become a different guy - he just needs to be confident enough in what he has to execute all of this tricks.   

I felt the team would recover from Notre Dame because they were a comparable team from a talent perspective that did not execute well enough to win (Dexter Williams not starting aside which makes a big difference).   I think OSU just had more talent, and when they were executing at a level like they haven't all year and we were too complacent to adjust, we got blown out.   We should have recognized that this was going to be a point a minute game coming out of the half.   But can anyone fault Harbaugh for believing Don Brown would adjust into shutting OSU down in the second half?   I wasn't sure he could because again Ryan Day would know the adjustments that are coming and would have counters.   But I don't blame Harbaugh or Pep for feeling like Don can shut this down, we can ball control, take some metered shots and win this game.   Once the blocked punt happened you had to open things up.   The blocked punt with an interception right after was the ballgame.

 

 

11/26/2018 - 10:38pm My biggest fear going into…

My biggest fear going into this game is that when Don Brown goes up against OCs he has coached with on the same staff previously they know the depth of his play book very well.   Moorehead said as much last year when PSU put up 42 on us.   Ryan Day and Don Brown were on the same staff at Boston College going against each other practice in and practice out.   He would have intimate knowledge of what Brown will adjust into, if he will zone bracket, etc.   He also knows that Brown doesn't play a quarters defense or mitigate crossing routes with stand stills off quarter alignments (look at it as a defensive pick if you will).   He had adjustments for the adjustments because he knows the playbook.   This is not something people focused on our discussed but my team and I do modeled betting and this is a factor that causes HUGE variance in results.   From underdogs to unexpected blowouts.   Something to consider....

11/26/2018 - 5:01pm I know that was hard Brian. …

I know that was hard Brian.   Existential posts are hard to write to be honest.   We live (or like to believe we do) in a rational universe.  But being a fan (short for fanatic) is by its nature not rational. So when an expectation has not only the opposite occurrence but rather one with no RATIONAL explanation whatsoever, human beings inherently turn to something mythical that can still keep them grounded.   Because otherwise it is an abyss of nothingness - meaningless, devoid of purpose and empty.    I offer that only two emotions control this universe - love and fear.   The things we love ground us and give us hope.   They give us a sense of purpose and a reason to live.  Our primal fear is the absence of love, something that death all but guarantees.   What is god if not a representation of love designed to mitigate the fear of death?   

We all love Michigan - the institution, its tradition, the sports team we watch that play with us and we perceive for us.   We don't rationally see it is just a game, that neither team now has a composite of better human beings due to the outcome, that life as we know it will go on and all of this somehow gets magically erased if we beat OSU next year.   Because we love this thing with all of our hearts and we fear it will never be what we want it to be, and that causes us to become irrational, or worse despondent at an eventuality that seems Sysiphisian.   This is death but without a god to explain why death should happen and what we love will never be what we want it to be or even really around anymore.   We are forced to face an irrational truth - that sometimes shit happens and it completely destroys the thing we love because that is what it is.

I know you Brian as one of the best people I've been around.   I was a reluctant fan when I returned to watching Michigan football.   After my father passed away, and realizing this fandom was the one thing in a lifetime of disagreements we bonded on, it felt unsettling to come back to this team.   It was 2011 before the MSU game.   I was wandering campus looking for a tailgate and you had sent an email saying, "I don't know you but if you are a Michigan fan and have faced the interminable ridicule that comes with being a champion Quiz Bowl player, then this is where I and my family are located and I would welcome you to come".   We watched Purdue "almost" beat OSU, and other asundry things.  I met Seth for the first time and we were all self effacing, sarcastic alum who loved our team and had developed this rational outlet to examine its success and failings.   Then I went to the game and saw Michigan beat MSU with tremendous adulation around random people who I had never met before but who were all bonded by this love.  I remember walking back to my car that night, happy to have exercised my own demon in a way and built a bond with a friend.  You've gotten married and had a child since then but you have always had an irrational love enveloped in a rational belief.   I implore you to remember that version of you.   Because it got me out of my cocoon and I became a better person for it.   I regained love for the university and I don't fear any consequence of my fandom.  I have you to thank for that and in some small way I'm hoping that knowing that helps.  These things happen and when I came to the site today you answered my expectation.   Sometimes the things you love, break your heart and there is no rational reason why.   All you can do is realize shit happens and understand that what we all fear is not death but the absence of love.   Don't lose the love you have - just accept that all things regress to the mean and even an irrational universe will eventually be irrational in your favor.     That is all we can hope for....especially if god doesn't really help:).

11/24/2018 - 9:16pm My take is the following:

1…

My take is the following:

1).  Both lines are not there yet - quality of competition hid those problems and offensive line is much closer to what we need. But if you don’t have AT LEAST the 2016 Michigan interior line then your DEs will get doubled such as the last two games. 

2).  All three linebackers and both safeties need to be fast - not just Devin Bush.   This is how you snuff out edges and have the flexibility to switch man to zone.   

Overall?  Speed kills and covers for a LOT of mistakes.  My fear with this game was that where OSU was weak was in covering explosive plays.   We are not an explosive offense.  They were going to get points and if we played man they were going to tear us up.    We won’t just become a quarters defense overnight.   So this was going to be a point for point game and our offense isn’t a point for point offense.   The offense needs an infusion of spread concepts infused in and the defense needs the athletes in the middle of the field where you can play zone.   I’m perplexed about why we didn’t RPO and zone stretch more than we did. We didn’t hit them with anything new and our offensive game plan was not as creative as last year.  But the offense isn’t why we lost this game.   

This is hard and feels futile.  Placatives like it’s just a game don’t work right now as the abyss of another off season stare us in the face.   But when this season started NONE of us expected a season even this remotely good.   We got completely subsumed by recency bias and OSU came to play.   They had more talent when the year began and they had more talent when the year ended.   This will get better.   You don’t have to stay for it - that is your prerogative.   But as a guy who watched every atrocious shot Manny Harris would put up from mid range knowing something better would come.  This too will pass...

11/24/2018 - 7:07pm Still have faith in Harbaugh…

Still have faith in Harbaugh, still have faith in this team, but this was a bizarre game plan across the board.    No RPOs, no read option with Shea keeping the ball as we had done all year...that was odd.  Having said that the defense was completely destroyed because they could generate ZERO pressure.   This was true last week as well.   There must be a tell to the DB defense that coordinators who have shared staff with him know.   Moorhead was on the offensive staff with him at Maryland and Day at BC.    They have torn him apart.   Picked up blitzes, stunts, twists.   There was NO pressure at all today - none.    That was by far the biggest surprise and the key to the entire game.    No idea what was the cause of that at all.  

 

 

 

 

 

11/23/2018 - 8:19am Some guy named john Faux…

Some guy named john Faux Neil.   He’s bizarro john o’neill Who makes appropriate calls and is not the rate determining factor of anything.   

This could happen...in the SEC:( 

11/22/2018 - 11:58pm Honestly I was surprised…

Honestly I was surprised that was not the actual hurry up call if first down happened but I assumed maybe individuals with far greater coaching knowledge knew something different.   Maybe the thought is clock stops on the first down so no need to spike?  But that argues even more for throw into the end zone or kick a FG.    So again appears to be that the assumption was they could get that route as a leading throw and carry the momentum into the end zone and the pass was just slightly behind because Shea Patterson isn’t Tom Brady (who makes those throws into TDs better than anyone in history).   Regardless bad call, learning lesson, hopefully never repeated. 

11/22/2018 - 11:51pm I concur - you can argue Pep…

I concur - you can argue Pep’s creativity but he is Gaurdrailed by the constraints of Harbaugh’s offense which is primarily creative in the running game to open up passing options.   Those routes have to push deeper into the end zone or else the disaster scenario of an in bounds tackle is a non zero event.   I felt part of it was the throw was slightly too far inside so there is a momentum shift that allows the in bounds tavklecto be made.   Credit the IU player for making a great tackle as well.   But honestly that play has to be perfect to work and when perfect likely gets you short of the end zone but the clock stopped.   That is the max return.   Wrong call in that scenario.   

11/19/2018 - 4:10pm By the very definition of S…

By the very definition of S&P+ this game shouldn't be a cake walk.   Haskins can sling it as evidenced by his emergence in the game last year.   I wouldn't be surprised if they just went with a passing spread for the vast majority of the game.    The game has an inordinate amount at stake, they will be the best offense outside of Notre Dame we have faced this year, and it is a rivalry game.  I think anyone who says otherwise is either ignorant, naive, or both.   But if Harbaugh loses this game it is not some referendum on him as a coach or on the program.   Just like being 1-2 against Dantonio and all that other nonsense.   He is building a great program that we can be proud of and that does things the right way.   He is not going anywhere, independent of the results of this game.   I literally want them to win this game so the inanity of recent program failures can be put to rest.   It is not because I believe we are a massively superior team.   The teams are fairly even, they are both great, and this game will be both exhilarating and painful to watch.   Just like the Game has always been and is meant to be.   

11/19/2018 - 1:04pm He posted best and worst on…

He posted best and worst on the Indiana guy.   And I agree he is legitimately one of the best posters here.  So universally level headed.   I’m sure his wife doesn’t feel that way but whose wife does:). 

11/18/2018 - 12:10am The pass rush looked anemic…

The pass rush looked anemic with DTs getting pushed around and the DEs (other than Gary) not getting consistent pressure.   It was lethargic and forced all sorts of scrambling in the back.   The postulation that Solomon’s flu spread to the defensive front is a believable hypothesis.   They just looked...weak.  I can’t imagine this is Indiana...felt like Michigan wasn’t strong on the d line at the point of attack.   That seems like an aberration...

11/16/2018 - 11:19pm Last week was great from a…

Last week was great from a modeling perspective with wake forest, old dominion and UNLV moneylines coming through.   Lot less volume this week.

Ball State +289

SMU +256

Wake Forest +207

Wisconsin +170

Kansas State +172

Tennessee +195

Charlotte +184

Tulsa +195

Louisville +588

San Diego State +384

oklahoma State +184 

ole miss +130

UNLV +203

Maryland +14 +107

San Jose State +487

11/15/2018 - 10:50pm Staff really liked him as an…

Staff really liked him as an heir apparent to Chris Evans.   Guy who you can get into space and cause some real damage.   He has a meaningful amount of Alvin Kamara level talent to his game.  It is definitely a loss but I can't blame the kid at all.   I think if you are the face of a revival so to speak, that in and of itself carries a lot of weight.   His family can see him play, his friends can revel in his success, and he will be THE dynamic playmaker on that team the minute he steps on the field.   In situations where the choice for the recruit is far more meaningful from an impact basis than the loss for the team he is walking away from, neither party is suffering.   Hope he is happy at Tennessee.   He is a great talent and will be a great player for them for time to come.   As long as Harbaugh is here, Michigan as a program will be fine.  

As a side note, listen to Mantis!  His comments after the Notre Dame game when the crowd here was becoming insufferable with the confirmation bias of failure based on one game were rational and logical based on empirical evidence.  Once the din of BPONE resonated everywhere it felt like on here, he literally stated he was going to bow out from the nonsense until people regained sanity.   He and Bronx Blue in particular stood out as reasoned voices to me especially as I felt alone in my belief that Harbaugh was, is and always will be the right man for the job.   So then, as now, I trust in who they recruit and their evaluation of talent.   I also believe if that talent opts to go somewhere else, we will be fine and the recruit will be fine.   Trust has been earned.   Good luck Eric!

11/14/2018 - 11:35pm Beilein is one of the most…

Beilein is one of the most honest coaches in all of basketball.   At half time when asked about the 44 points we put up he stated that the offense will get there and they have seen it getting better in practice.   I think by February this will be a fully functional death machine.   

In regards to Poole, I think he is just looking to pass more almost consciously.  I think he will MAAR like as the season goes on but dribble, drive and dish will make him more lethal over time.

11/04/2018 - 3:33pm Best thing was....there wasn…

Best thing was....there wasn't a damn thing he could say.   Not a word....he got beat, period end of story....and had to take it like a man.   Or whatever the Frames Janklin equivalent of that is....

11/03/2018 - 7:39pm Get a good nights sleep Don…

Get a good nights sleep Don B....you earned it!  

11/03/2018 - 1:29pm Money line:

Akron 

Money line:

Akron 

 Pittsburgh

navy 

byu

Nebraska 

Louisiana Monroe

Baylor

Cal

ASU

Florida Atlantic 

UCLA 

Iowa

North Carolina

FSU

wake Forest 

northwestern

illinois 

MSU -3.5 

South Florida -7 

LSU +13

Hawaii +17.5 

UNLV +24.5

U Conn +17

10/30/2018 - 1:54pm It will be one of the…

It will be one of the tougher openings for sure - you lose Duncan, Mo and MAAR from a team that was not that great shooting in the first place.    Not sure where the shooting is going to come from - the key will be if Teske or Livers can stretch the D.   Otherwise SJK is right - the paint will be PACKED....

10/30/2018 - 10:49am lil Devin needs to be the…

lil Devin needs to be the new lil Penny!   Chappell can do the voice over....”F yo balm!” 

10/27/2018 - 1:41pm Moneyline:

pittsburgh

Moneyline:

pittsburgh

syracuse

Arizona 

New Mexico State 

Georgia Southern 

Minnesota

georgia Tech

Michigan State 

Toledo 

south Florida 

oklahoma state

kentucky 

UNLV

Charlotte 

northern Illinois 

There are some good games that if I wasn’t mathematical in betting I would take.    Iowa, army, BC and Nevada being the best of the lot.    All those games especially if you get points - seem like great bets.   

 

 

 

 

10/21/2018 - 12:35pm Respect given is respect…

Respect given is respect earned.   We went out there and TOOK it from them.   That’s what good teams do against bad teams.   And make no mistake - that is not a good MSU team 

10/20/2018 - 8:04pm He said it was just the…

He said it was just the beginning...he was right 

10/20/2018 - 5:43pm ACCCCEEEEE!!!!!  That one…

ACCCCEEEEE!!!!!  That one was for you....and all sufferers everywhere 

10/20/2018 - 1:13pm Bummed as everyone else was…

Bummed as everyone else was that a perfect arc block was there and Shea didn’t pull.   The zone read is more of an art than people think but that one was designed to go to the house and I hope they come back to it.   

Otherwise I’m actually fairly positive on what I’ve seen so far.   I saw some doubles inside that actually moved their DTs - that got me excited.   Running inside will open up the outside - if we can run some IZ ...the complexion of the game completely changes. 

10/19/2018 - 11:24pm Plus home underdogs with…

Plus home underdogs with underpriced win probability are nice.  UNLV getting ten points is bizarre to me.   Nevada is another one that seems mispriced by the eye test.  Anyway....

The EPL play is an interesting one...

North Texas and Central Michigan to win showed up on the models but not at a high enough odds margin even with teasing the points.   The other games listed didn’t show up but I really like Army and Kentucky to cover with Army a possible tease up to get more return.  I have to ask - what is it you like about Virginia in the game BeatOSU?  

10/19/2018 - 11:10pm Man I really wanna do Purdue…

Man I really wanna do Purdue but the payoff is mid 300 but the win probability is 20% in the model.    So bummed....there is likely a good teaser where you can get +120 if you are willing to get 9 points only.....

10/19/2018 - 11:06pm Stanford -3 +105

Nevada …

Stanford -3 +105

Nevada +130

UNLV +351

Marshall +125

Michigan State:  +226

New Mexico: +367

Navy:  +337

Oregon:+120

UTSA +711

Mississippi St: +215

Memphis: +289

USC +218

any point teaser I could get on these games as a hedge 

we only do moneylines as they are ever so slightly uncoupled from the spread and the rate of return against win probability is so high when you model it that the probability of a multiple on return exceeds the dollar value of exposure.   Basically if the multiple on your money returned is higher than the your modeled win probability then you should bet it.

Then again I could be completely wrong....

10/18/2018 - 12:16pm I think Seth’s description…

I think Seth’s description and what makes MSU so dangerous is they get you to play THEIR game.   It is very hard to dictate your style against them.   The defense will sell out to take away your ability to run and forces you to have to grind out victory.   Their offense has to be good enough to keep them in it and that is their strategy.  Mark Dantonio, again thoughts of him as a human being aside, is an exceptional coach.   He baits people into attacking him where he is strongest which I think is by design.   Statistics is a great at helping you examine variance to see truth.   But even stats tell you it can’t all be luck when you win as often as an underdog as MSU does.    He takes away the run, blitzes you creatively and consistently which requires you hit big plays to win.   Toe to toe with those guys is hard because defensively they are brutally efficient and offensively they are explosive in high leverage situations.   Penn State is the game before OSU that scares me the most but this game has the highest probability for massive variance. 

10/13/2018 - 9:20pm I find Dantonio to be a…

I find Dantonio to be a objectively noxious individual.  He is, however, a great coach whose particular strength is getting his players to play far above their level.  In addition, he is creative and gutsy.   Honestly, at a blue blood program, his cultural message wouldn’t resonate.  At MSU it’s ideal to be honest. Be prepared for a brutal game. 

10/06/2018 - 7:27pm They lost to Temple.  They…

They lost to Temple.  They beat Texas - same Texas that beat Oklahoma. Transitive property doesn’t mean much but Maryland isn’t a bad team by any stretch.   They just happen to be good at the things Michigan’s defense is good at defending.   

Northwestern is a solid team - yards discrepancy was meaningful against them from us.   This Michigan team is good - unsure if they are elite but the next three weeks will tell us a lot....

09/29/2018 - 10:01pm It would be great if every…

It would be great if every single person who posts a reactionary take on Michigan football just lists their name and owns their comments.   But much like the fire Beilein crowd I doubt that will happen.   Good and even great teams go through moments like this and many times lose.   Clemson against Pittsburgh, Alabama numerous times to Mississippi or LSU, etc.   You will have these games and you have matured as a team when you win games like these.  This is a BIG milestone for this team.   I was very impressed.    They came back to score 20 Pts with limited field position benefit and no turnover benefit against a VERY good front 7 that makes you earn your points.    Michigan Team last year doesn’t do this,  Michigan team year before lost to Iowa in a similar situation.    Feel horrible all you want - glass half empty helps some.   I was impressed by a resilience I haven’t seen before from this team. 

09/12/2018 - 8:41pm Hudson will be a starting…

Hudson will be a starting tackle early in to the Big Ten season.    Mayfield could but I suspect his run blocking isn’t there because he probably needs to build more strength.    I wonder why they never kicked Bredeson out to LT and put Spanellis in at his spot?  He was at one time neck and neck with Newsome.    

09/03/2018 - 1:01pm I’m sorry to hear this…

I’m sorry to hear this Mantis but I can completely appreciate your position.  This team will get better as the year goes on and they will surprise on occasion.   We aren’t Alabama yet and we may never be but honestly I’m far happier with the program than most people.    I don’t listen to the blogosphere much primarily because these same people usually want to fire Beilein as well.   It’s the nature of the beast when people are impassioned about something.   You want to control an outcome you can’t and rage against it for that reason.    Getting perspective in these situations is difficult.    I recommend people come to the realization that it’s just a game and there are far greater points of happiness in this world.   

See you in the future Mantis - your sensibility will be missed but your need for sanity is understandable:). 

09/02/2018 - 10:52am I expect every fan to over…

I expect every fan to over react.   I think the tackles are a problem and will be all year whether speed rushes or twists.  I think we needed to run more power and more plays under Center as our Read option and RPO capabilities still seem immature.   Plus easier to chip from that formation.  I think Shea Patterson is very good but not great.  I think Dylan McCaffery will be a STAR!  I think the defense needed to compress running lanes far more than they did in the first half rushing too far upfield and with not enough discipline.   They corrected that in the second half for the most part and will get even better over time.   I think Wimbush hit some passes that he never hits which happens.    I don’t think notre Dave got “conservative” in the second half - it wasn’t a blow out and if Notre Dame has you by the throat they will go for the kill.   They didn’t because they couldn’t.  I think Harbaugh out smarted himself a couple of times and needs to be more creative in how to get his best players catching the ball in space.  I think the safety from Notre Dame single handedly prevented many plays from busting big.  I think we are an extremely entitled fan base that has zero cause to be entitled.  Bo won zero national championships, we have won ONE in most of our lifetimes, yet we have an expectation of greatness that is immediate.   I think none of this matters as much as people think it does.

I think this team is a year away and I don’t think Harbaugh is going anywhere.    

08/21/2018 - 12:25am I use Sportsbook - Bovada…

I use Sportsbook - Bovada and 5 Dimes are both fine with the later having a money transfer process that is easier and far more juiced lines.   We create variance models so we usually have five to six accounts going on multiple platforms.   You can beat Vegas but the available volume you can do it on is not tremendously high in any one sport so you have to model them all.    We model ten years worth of data including odds and results, individual level contribution and before and after for every team amd every match up.   We do binary ensemble modeling and then bet on mid priced odds at an inherent rate of return.   Normalizing data on six different sports and a huge numnber of leagues is an arduous task.    If you don’t have model and just your gut - make it money you don’t mind losing.

06/03/2018 - 11:14pm I miss all the fire Beilein

I miss all the fire Beilein people - ohh where have you gone:)?

In all seriousness I hope he stays. I believe ultimately the ability to teach kids to become players is a huge draw for him making this fairly moot. If he did jump however, Yaklich becoming the coach and Patrick Beilein an assistant? Interesting....

Ok I want the master here and I know Warde wants to get him to 4.5 and the assistants to 500 grand. BQ is both right and wrong - it’s money and challenge. One of those problems can be solved or at least that’s what donors have been told. The other can’t. If he leaves - it’s not for the money.

05/29/2018 - 11:25pm I suspect he is gone. The

I suspect he is gone. The fact that it’s even being discussed when two months ago it was a foregone conclusion he would stay, portends departure. I think he has a THJ game and one more year could have refined that pull up game making him an even more deadly slasher but maybe he feels that’s more likely to happen in the pros vs college.

05/29/2018 - 5:32pm We will be fine as always.

We will be fine as always. Different offense but better defense. There is a lot you can do with Teske as your big. I’m more excited for that shot volume to go Jordan Poole and Isiah Livers. Man those two are going to be fun. The whole team will be fun. Wish Charles the best - we will always laugh at Nick Ward together...

05/13/2018 - 8:24pm Again the statistics say that

Again the statistics say that Harbaugh will win at a consistent and meaningful rate. The system he espouses is not one that youth picks up readily. I’m not sure that the impetus was for the Frye and Drevno duopoly but if anyone believes that Harbaugh doesn’t ultimately decide what play is run on the field, a notorious control freak who is maniacal about both preparation and competition, is kidding themselves. The kids could have been taught to their level but I believe Harbaugh thought he could have his cake and eat it too. Accelerate their learning while back filling with fundamentals. Leverage two coaches so that parallel paths could occur with the hope your QB can help with protections and pick ups if need be. This was a calculated error that failed miserably and got compounded by historically bad QB play. I recognize expectations and the entitlement our fan base has but honestly we have an amazing coach with amazing kids who the stats say, by 2019 (not 18) will have a death machine for a team. I for one am excited recognizing it’s only a game, played by kids who went to my school, and represent us proudly through great risk for short and long term injury. This program is on the right track and Harbaugh is the right coach. I hope he gets the chance to see it to fruition.

05/13/2018 - 7:51pm Celtics +245 was good money

Celtics +245 was good money from an analytics perspective - better than the+190 against Philadelphia. This is purely from an analytics perspective looking at variance across all aggregated metrics. From a basketball perspective, I have no idea what the Cavs are going to do to counter the Celtics being able to switch on wings constantly. Stevens is brilliant because he is amazing at avoiding down screens on his defenders making it really hard to do any sideline action at all. And he gets his shooters clean looks by forcing big centers to cover tons of ground and using Horford whenever other teams to go to small ball. Cavs only chance would be too put Thompson and love out there together - let Thompson get screen action going to the rim and love going away to force Boston to make choice. It also gets you a guy in Thompson who can play switches effectively.

Frankly, Celtics should win this series and it shouldn’t be close by the numbers. Lebron will make it close but the Celtics having the ability to neutralize with Horford makes this a celts series win. Unfortunately the numbers say as long as draymond green plays (yes draymond green) they aren’t beating the warriors. Draymond green is THE statistical nightmare of the NBA driving all the variance in every regression model. Him vs Capela is the match up of the entire NBA playoffs and the Rockets are the only team with a chance against the warriors. It will require chris Paul to be 4-5 points more efficient than Steph curry which ultimately means who will manage the switch better - Capella or Green.

04/03/2018 - 10:05am Villanova offense changed

Michigan took Nova out of their wing PnR action completely which forced Nova into what they don’t want to do which is gaurd isolation at the top of the key. This is not their offense - having the gaurd break you down from the middle of the floor because it doesn’t allow them to maximize ball movement from what they run. Dante blew that up by basically bombing us into oblivion and because Nova has NEVER run that action all year I’m not sure Michigan could have stopped it. I do believe that Michigan in the second half should have done a much better job of ball denial on him but again the only way to do that effectively is to press on the inbound because once you go to a one gaurd offense that guy will gave the ball in his hand. Michigan countered by putting Matthews on him and Nova then used Dante as the screener with Bridges to free him up on to MAAR so that he could just shoot over him. When they tried to pinch him he either split the double team or found an open wing shooter who would have a wide open look.

I don’t think that lost us the game however. MAAR getting his second foul with 5 in the first half, Nova ball denying on Wagner, going 3/23 on a multitude of open looks and getting destroyed on the offensive glass lost us the game. Only one of those three things is on coaching and it was a defensive counter by Jay Wright that worked because MAAR was gone and no one else could initiate the PnR as effectively because the one thing the team has been missing all year, especially if MAAR isn’t there, is a ball dominant gaurd who can get his own shot. Wagner was exhausted by the second half, seemed a step slow on everything and no Robinson or Poole to get you rise and fire points spell doom. If we hit our season average on 3’s and defensively rebound like we normally do this is a very tight game.

As someone who has made a very profitable living building data and analytics companies, I can tell you that for an underdog to win they need a meaningful statistical outlier to go their way. Nova scored 79 Pts with almost 50% of those points scored by ONE player! The statistical outlier in this case went to them which is why this became a blow out.

I’m amazed by what this team accomplished without a primary shot creator. It truly is amazing and we should all be very proud. This feels like a beginning not an end and I’m excited for the future. One of these moments we will be the outlier.

03/31/2018 - 3:17pm Gambling is built on regression

If you just want to have fun you can parlay moneyline Michigan and Villanova with the points. Though a moneyline parlay of both teams is a solid idea, from an ROI perspective using Kelly Criteria and either Torvik or Ken Pom you will not win enough against the risk of the events combinatorially happening. You want to find an arbitrage between the rate of return and the probability of winning. You see this in moneylines on underdogs vs kenpom (likely Torvik as well but I haven’t back tested). The only bet with a higher rate of return than win probability is Loyola sadly by Kenpom. If you look at Torvik then the only bet today is the two team moneyline and the ROI doesn’t justify it.

Or you don’t have to be a complete stat nerd like me and just bet to your interest. I hear people still do that:).

03/04/2018 - 12:25am I loved him as a hire having

I loved him as a hire having been blown away by how intricate a two guard offense he ran at WVU. But what really made me a believer was the Manny Harris tournament team when he took basically a ball
dominant guard with limited surrounding talent and built a team that was offensively exceptional. He has also always been a teacher and very honest about the short comings of his team. If you see a problem, he has diagnosed and tried the fix already. He’s never lied to us as a fan base and consistently improves himself as well. I’m just constantly surprised how people just forget. It’s one thing to win with tremendous innovation or talent advantages - it’s quite another to take lightly recruited players, identify their talent and nurture them so well. Look at Blueitt, KBD, Kevin heurter, Vince Edwards - even Klay Thompson! He was in on those players before so many others. He has won everywhere he has gone with his talent his way.

Remember that as you get down on Harbaugh. Great coaches who are motivators, teachers, structured, disciplined, with a consistent system and have won at every level don’t suddenly forget how to coach. Subpar performances for them are statistical anomalies. Ohh and every bad year at Michigan for Beilein has been when he doesn’t have a true lead guard. His system depends on it - like a QB for a prostyle offense.

Just think it through as you choose to be derisive. Past performance is highly predictive of future results especially with longitudinal experience.

03/04/2018 - 12:25am I loved him as a hire having

I loved him as a hire having been blown away by how intricate a two guard offense he ran at WVU. But what really made me a believer was the Manny Harris tournament team when he took basically a ball
dominant guard with limited surrounding talent and built a team that was offensively exceptional. He has also always been a teacher and very honest about the short comings of his team. If you see a problem, he has diagnosed and tried the fix already. He’s never lied to us as a fan base and consistently improves himself as well. I’m just constantly surprised how people just forget. It’s one thing to win with tremendous innovation or talent advantages - it’s quite another to take lightly recruited players, identify their talent and nurture them so well. Look at Blueitt, KBD, Kevin heurter, Vince Edwards - even Klay Thompson! He was in on those players before so many others. He has won everywhere he has gone with his talent his way.

Remember that as you get down on Harbaugh. Great coaches who are motivators, teachers, structured, disciplined, with a consistent system and have won at every level don’t suddenly forget how to coach. Subpar performances for them are statistical anomalies. Ohh and every bad year at Michigan for Beilein has been when he doesn’t have a true lead guard. His system depends on it - like a QB for a prostyle offense.

Just think it through as you choose to be derisive. Past performance is highly predictive of future results especially with longitudinal experience.