Bill Connelly breaks down why this game isn't a walk for Michigan
People have been talking on this board like OSU is a 7-5 team that will only beat Michigan if Michigan spectacularly fails. The reality is OSU is a top 10 team to S&P including a top 5 offense and despite their big play problems are still a top 40 defense. If our big plays aren't turning into TD's and instead turn into field goals we are losing this game. This game is a 55-60% lean, it is by no means one over matched team just hoping to keep it close like Michigan was trying last year. This is going to be a tough game that is going to need Michigan to play its best game of the year to win.
https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/11/19/18101061/ohio-state-michigan-game-2018-preview-analysis
November 20th, 2018 at 12:01 AM ^
And strap on!
That's what she said!
November 19th, 2018 at 3:06 PM ^
I'm not sure being ranked the #38 defense in s&p is anything to brag about. They're not much better than teams like Maryland. And those numbers are cumulative, so they include games in which Bosa was on the team.
November 19th, 2018 at 3:07 PM ^
That is like the exact opposite of he is. Literally everything he talks about is backed up by probably the most robust in depth stats in the business.
November 19th, 2018 at 3:07 PM ^
I know. I was being sarcastic but I realized that nobody would get it so I changed my comment.
November 19th, 2018 at 3:07 PM ^
wait, you means its not going to be parade in the horseshoe for michigan?
even when Michigan sucked, they generally played OSU quite tough...so presumably it will be the same in reverse.
not sure why anyone puts any stock into what fans say anyways...
As long as the team and coaching staff are taking them seriously (which undoubtedly they are), then who cares if the fans are delusional about the potential outcome
November 19th, 2018 at 3:09 PM ^
This is harbaughs chance to cement himself as our head coach. Win this and the fan base will be 100% behind him!
November 19th, 2018 at 3:16 PM ^
The fan base should be 100% behind Harbaugh regardless of Saturday's outcome.
November 19th, 2018 at 3:30 PM ^
but we need this W, desperately
November 19th, 2018 at 3:37 PM ^
I disagree just slightly. Here's why...
At some point, Harbaugh HAS to prove he can beat OSU. He can't keep losing this game. I don't care how many 10 win seasons Harbaugh racks up. If he can't beat OSU then things will need to change (this is assuming that losing to OSU keeps us out of the conference title game and playoff, which is a fair assumption I think).
Michigan cannot afford to repeat OSU's John Cooper years. And quite frankly, the way our defense is playing, and the way that the QB and O-Line positions have improved, coupled with the massive holes on this year's OSU team....if Harbaugh can't win under these circumstances, how can we expect to win under circumstances even less ideal? It's not every day that OSU fields a team with this many issues.
The stars are aligning this year for us and now is the time to seize control of the conference and de-throne OSU. If we can't get it done this year, we may never get it done.
November 19th, 2018 at 3:51 PM ^
Who are you hire that can beat OSU? Can you give me one name? We have lost 2 coin flip games to OSU, and Harbaugh has had great game plans for both of those games. It's not like they have been out coached by OSU. I'd rather count on coin flips going our way at some point than hire somebody who is going to get blown out. This is dumb. Not caring how many 10 win seasons he racks up is also dumb. Did you just forget the last decade when we weren't even close to competing for championships? UM fans should be 100% behind Harbaugh no matter the outcome of this game.
November 19th, 2018 at 3:59 PM ^
This response is dumb and just about the most parroted statement I've ever heard. It's not my job to have an immediate name to hire as a replacement. And further more, nobody said anything about an immediate firing. Just not a total 100% all in mentality. So first off, slow down there sparky. Second, the number of times teams throughout the country have fallen ass-backwards into a phenomenal coach (without the mega resume many UM fans require) is high enough to let you know that you just never know what kind of a coach you might get. Third, the fact that you would be perfectly okay with keeping a coach (long-term) that (hypothetically) never beats OSU is disturbing on all levels. Are you sure you're a Michigan fan?
All I'm saying is that IF Harbaugh can never beat OSU, why should I get behind him 100%?
November 19th, 2018 at 4:19 PM ^
Not sure when you make the determination that he "can't" beat OSU. There is no indication that's the case. The last two years he put the team in a favorable position to win those games and they just didn't go our way. He could lose the first 5, then win the next 5. We do know he's fielding good teams and has come out with great game plans against them. The fact that we've been the victim of some shitty luck/bad bounces in those games does not mean anything to me about Harbaugh's coaching.
Also, how many teams have "backed into" coaches that can beat teams like Ohio State, Clemson, and Alabama? It usually turns out pretty terribly - USC, Tennessee, and Florida say hi - all teams that arguably have a recruiting advantage over Michigan.
I am a Michigan fan, and as heartbreaking as some of our losses to OSU have been over the last few years, competing for championships has been a ton of fun. We keep putting out these sorts of teams and the championships will come.
November 19th, 2018 at 4:43 PM ^
Well ultimately that's up to the AD at every school. But, realistic people who hold AD posts ultimately look at what a coach has and hasn't been able to accomplish and then make a judgement call. If you wait 10+ years to get every possible statistical point of data...you've probably waited too long. At some point, the team has to get over that final hump, and every year that we fail to do so (under each respective coach) gives me less and less confidence that said coach will be able to get over that hump in the subsequent season. Simply fielding "competitive" teams provides zero indication that future wins are on the horizon. Carr was "competitive" with OSU every year against Tressel...but it never magically turned into a win the following year.
Bottom line of all of this is: I will never get 100% behind a Michigan coach who loses every game to OSU, regardless of how "competitive" we looked while losing and I don't understand how any true Michigan fan possibly could. This doesn't mean that I don't support the team each season, but that my confidence in the coach's abilities and long-term potential value won't be 100%.
November 19th, 2018 at 5:20 PM ^
This is Michigan ends up with guys like Rodriguez. It's beneficial, and pretty darn nice, to have a coach on board that not only understands the history of the school and the program, but has contributed to it.
November 19th, 2018 at 6:16 PM ^
Actually, Michigan ended up with RichRod due to the personal grudges and interfering of Lloyd Carr. If not for Carr, we would have hired Les Miles. And say what you will about Miles’ coaching abilities but it’s a far cry greater than those of RichRod.
November 19th, 2018 at 7:51 PM ^
This is such a horrible take. A coach’s job duties include things like identifying talented players and coaches, recruiting them to the school, developing them, designing good game plans, and teaching the players to carry out those plans. “Beating OSU” is not a job task. Rather, victories—whether over OSU or other teams—are a probable result of performing the above-listed tasks well. But that’s not guaranteed; sometimes—indeed frequently—coaches lose games for various reasons outside their personal control.
So if you have a coach who hires good assistants, recruits good players and develops them, designs effective game plans and teaches his players how to execute those plans—then you should win your share of games against OSU. But you might not. And if you don’t, the worst thing you can do about it is replace the coach who hires good assistants, recruits and develops good players, and designs and teaches effective schemes just because you’re disappointed with the results. If the coach you have continues to perform well, then perhaps the results will come. If you replace that coach with one who almost certainly performs at an inferior level, you’ve only diminished your prospects.
November 19th, 2018 at 4:34 PM ^
Bo started 1-4-1 against Woody. He ended up 5-4-1.
November 19th, 2018 at 5:03 PM ^
Actually, through the first six seasons Bo was 2-3-1 against Woody.
1969 - W
1970 - L
1971 - W
1972 - L
1973 - T
1974 - L
November 20th, 2018 at 10:00 AM ^
You lost me at teams getting lucky with elite coaches. Do you just not remember the Rich Rod and Hoke days?
November 19th, 2018 at 4:21 PM ^
This is something between a 60/40 or 65/35 percent game favoring Michigan. The underdog wins those games...about 35-40% of the time.
So if the good guys don't win...it could be just down to literally 1 or 2 plays that could have gone either way (just like 2016). That would not at all mean that Harbaugh has is John Cooper or that JH has some sort of ceiling.
Win or lose, the only valid reason to criticize JH would be if he deploys a terrible game plan. But I do not think he will because his OSU game plans in '15, '16, and '17 have been pretty good.
November 19th, 2018 at 4:58 PM ^
Um, you might want to go back and re-visit history. Close, competitive losses are the literal definition of John Cooper's record against UM:
1988 - Close Loss
1989 - Close Loss
1990 - Close Loss
1991 - Blowout Loss
1992 - Tie
1993 - Blowout Loss
1994 - Solid Win
1995 - Close Loss
1996 - Close Loss
1997 - Close Loss
1998 - Solid Win
1999 - Close Loss
2000 - Close Loss
All of those close losses coming within 12 points or less. That's easily 1 or 2 plays. And coaching isn't just about Xs and Os and gameplans...it's also about the ability to make players better and getting them to execute.
Would a loss this year mean Harbaugh = Cooper? No, not necessarily just yet. But it sure as heck wouldn't look promising. Let's follow down this nightmare hypothetical for a second....IF, and that's a big IF, Harbaugh loses again on Saturday (and it's a close competitive loss) that would literally give him the exact same record through the first four seasons as Cooper, albeit in reverse order:
2015 - Blowout Loss
2016 - Close Loss
2017 - Close Loss
2018 - Close Loss (in this hypothetical scenario)
Say what you will, but the worse possible case scenario outcome on Saturday would start to draw eerie parallels.
November 19th, 2018 at 6:55 PM ^
I know the Cooper era. And whatever happens on Saturday, any comparison of JH to Cooper is crazy.
This year Michigan is the better team, but is only a 4.5 point favorite. Not a slam dunk here. If JH loses several M-OSU games where M is the slight favorite, THEN you can compare him to Cooper.
Further, it is an apples and oranges comparison. Not similar situations at all. First, during the Cooper era, OSU was more often than not in the spot Michigan is in now--the slightly better team going in. JH has had that situation only once--this year.
Another dissimilarity: In the Cooper era OSU was not rebuilding its program after its worst 10 year period ever. Cooper walked into a really solid and consistently winning program, that just seemed to slightly under perform under Earle Bruce (lost to Michigan too often). So his losing a lot to Michigan was not down to having to rebuild or having the somewhat inferior roster.
JH, in contrast walked into a program that has just finished the worst decade in program history. That has been a much bigger challenge than anything Cooper had to deal with.
Why was Michigan dominant in M-OSU series in the Cooper (and Earl Bruce) eras? Lots of factors. But one big factor was the M usually had the better QB (sometimes by a wide margin), which is often the difference in close games.
OSU QBs in that era were mostly...not anything for a D to have to game plan around. Craig Krenzel! Bellisari! Herbstreit! Kent Graham! Jim Karsatos! Bobby Hoying! OMG those guys were...not scary at all. Hopefully Meyer retires and OSU returns to having mediocre QBs like that had from that late 70s until...Troy Smith in 2005.
November 19th, 2018 at 5:35 PM ^
You are looking at this with gray colored glasses-- if the decade previous to JH's arrival had boasted a few more wins, I think you'd be looking at this as less "do or die." Until this year OSU has been a juggernaut and we....haven't. This year we have a very good team and OSU, while good, has some chinks in their armor. Those other years really have no bearing on this one.
November 19th, 2018 at 7:12 PM ^
That seems correct.
This is the year where the M-OSU rivalry sort of returns to the old normal.
Two good teams. One probably slightly better than the other. Both in contention for a Big Ten title. But the favorite is favored by less than at TD.
November 19th, 2018 at 3:09 PM ^
People have been talking on this board like OSU is a 7-5 team
Which people are these?
November 19th, 2018 at 3:51 PM ^
November 19th, 2018 at 4:40 PM ^
You haven't met Mr. and Mrs. Straw?
They give credibility to otherwise weak arguments.
November 19th, 2018 at 4:59 PM ^
It's just Mr. Straw. There are no strawwomen.
November 19th, 2018 at 3:09 PM ^
Shocking ak47 is posting this
...NOT.
November 19th, 2018 at 3:09 PM ^
Not me Im pessistic about the game..Lot of things will be working in Ohio Sts favor..not to mention the fact that they are getting bashed and criticized by EVERYONE..and Ole Herbstreit trashing them to get them motivated...AS ALWAYS they will play the best game of their season against us so we had better bring or AA game
November 19th, 2018 at 3:22 PM ^
They're a bunch of prima Donna buckeyes that aren't tough. If they fear us. They will be more prone to error and choking.
November 19th, 2018 at 3:09 PM ^
Ummm... I know of NOBODY who thinks this game would be a cakewalk. #1 defense or not.
November 19th, 2018 at 3:10 PM ^
That poor strawman, he sure got TOLD.
November 19th, 2018 at 3:11 PM ^
Anyone who thinks this game is an easy victory is either a blind homer or doesn't know football. At minimum, OSU has equal talent, and IMO superior talent, to M, and they are playing at home with all the possible motivation there is. They are eminently beatable with a top effort from us, but it won't be anything like easy.
November 19th, 2018 at 3:12 PM ^
I fear their offense, but it's hard for me to tremble in my boots at a defense that gave up 49 to Purdue and 51 to Maryland. That's just a bad defense no matter how you slice it
November 19th, 2018 at 3:15 PM ^
Ridiculous. No one thinks it's gonna be easy. Just stop.
November 19th, 2018 at 3:17 PM ^
Defense number #85 in yards given up.
November 19th, 2018 at 3:24 PM ^
Yeah, I agree with the OP, although I think that one factor is it's been so, so long since we had anything approaching equality heading into this game that equality feels like a massive advantage.
November 19th, 2018 at 3:29 PM ^
I don't think it will be easy, but I do think Michigan will score ~35-40 points while controlling the ball for ~35 minutes. They'll have to work hard for every inch - no missed assignments, but I think the run game against OSU's crap eating linebackers will be the difference. Can the OSU offense, led by a one-trick pony QB and a weak OL, score that many on the #1 defense in half the time Michigan's O will have the ball? Probably not.
I also think the coaching is so much in Michigan's favor this year. Not just scheme and overall coaching talent, but also in how much the players are buying in and believing, and playing for their coaches. Don't tell me the Zach Smith cover up and Urbane health business, along with having two DC's, hasn't split that locker room to some degree. That is the difference in how well a team plays in a game like this. That is what breeds confidence in the players, it's what foments doubt.
What team do you think has more confidence in itself this year?
I won't back off what I've been saying for three weeks - Michigan in the 40's, OSU in the 20's...
November 19th, 2018 at 3:40 PM ^
I pray and hope you're 100% correct on this prediction!!
November 19th, 2018 at 5:39 PM ^
Even 35 mins time of possession does not mean a strong win. Look for lots of tempo from OSU offense. I hope he D is getting ready for it...
November 19th, 2018 at 9:39 PM ^
Yeah, tempo is coming ... but IU showed us the secret sauce ... we can just kick the ball when the ref is trying to spot and claim we didn't mean to. Seconds tick away. Guys get to rest. Problem solved.
November 19th, 2018 at 8:37 PM ^
I think Ohio will play very well - their best game of the year. However I think our guys will play absolutely out of their minds and as a result will dominate down the stretch. And I agree that the buy in is going to be a difference-maker. These guys are playing for each other as well as the coaches.
Michigan now has all of the pieces and JH's Offensive game plan won't be constrained as it has had to be in the past. If Don Brown was maniacally focused on shutting down PSU, it would be crazy to think he won't be bringing the same or more if even possible against Ohio.
November 19th, 2018 at 3:31 PM ^
You are without a doubt top 5 maybe even top 3 most annoying posters on here. Jesus fucking Christ who cares what fans have to say. You and your concern trolling truth telling b.s. is beyond tiresome. You're completely one note and predictable.
November 19th, 2018 at 4:37 PM ^
Top 1 and it isnt close.
November 19th, 2018 at 3:32 PM ^
If 2013, 2014, and 2017 are any indication, no shit this game isn’t going to be a cakewalk. OSU walked into each of those games as a MASSIVE favorite and were either neck and neck with Michigan for most of the game before pulling away in the final minutes, or the game was decided on the last play. That’s the nature of rivalry games. They tell you to throw records out the window for a reason.
Don’t care how bad OSU has looked until now. Don’t care how good we’ve looked. Each team is playing its best game on Saturday. The question will be who’s best game is better, and who can avoid the costly turnover that swings the game.
November 19th, 2018 at 3:33 PM ^
I think these teams are basically even. I give the QB edge to Haskins, the o-lines are a push, the d-line edge I give to UM if healthy, I give the DB and LB edge to UM, the WR edge to OSU, the TE/FB edge to UM, the RB is a push, and the special teams are a push. IMO this game comes down to if UM can run the ball effectively, stay out of 3rd and long and not turn the ball over and limit Haskins. For OSU it comes down to if they can limit UM's run game and force them in 3rd and longs to get after Patterson in obvious passing downs and if Haskins can be effective against the best defense they've seen all year. It could go either way. Just like in '16 this game will come down to a handfull of plays late, a key TO, a little luck, and maybe some officiating. I always give the edge to the home team in these games.
November 19th, 2018 at 3:34 PM ^
Anybody thinking this game is going to be a cakewalk is off their rocker.
THE ABSOLUTE WORST Ohio State team in 20 years, coached by one Luke Fickell, even played Michigan close.
If Michigan doesn’t play their best game of the season, a loss is a very real possibility. This team really wants this though. The playoffs, a Big 10 championship game, are all on the table for this team.
They want to go out and be the first Michigan squad to accomplish any of this. I have faith that they’ll get it done.
November 19th, 2018 at 3:40 PM ^
I'd have more faith with a healthy Gary, Winovich, Solomon, & JBB.