If You Had to Guess Right Now, Does Meyer Stay, Suspend, or Terminate?

He stays.

He gets suspended for 3-4 games but comes back when it matters. He donates a minuscule portion of his salary to domestic abuse survivors and all is forgiven and forgotten. 

If this was John Cooper he’d already be fired. But it’s Urban Meyer so he’ll survive. In the real world, evil wins over good every single time. 

I still think he stays with a major suspension. But he lied blatently about this at Media Day and that's a bad, bad look to go with everything else. 

I've defended OSU's assembling of the panel, because I think they're trying to handle this the "right way," or at least do everything they can to look like it. But I wouldn't be surprised if the panel becomes an effort to expose any and all bad data so that they know they can safely keep him without a bomb emerging as described by that one anonymous athletic director. If they find nothing else that's serious within the scope of the Smith marriage or other coaching personal problems, I think he stays. 

Yesterday was a bad, bad look though. I honestly think Zach Smith talking and Meyer napalming his athletic director make it more likely that he gets fired. But not so likely that I expect it to happen. 

In situations involving big time collegiate athletics and highly-successful programs like OSU, I never expect institutions to do the right thing for the right reasons. A suspension of several games then reinstatement after the appropriate displays of contrition and promises to do better.

I think he and Gene Smith are donions 

I've been absorbing as much analysis as possible over the last few days and keep going back and forth on whether he stays or goes. Right now I'm about 75% he's gone. Maybe more.

Even if he played everything by the book with respect to title IX and other reporting and investigation requirements, the disorganized way that everything came out removes any benefit of the doubt. The lie at media day makes it look like there was a cover up to protect an abuser, and the firing only came years later due to media pressure. Any way you look at how the last month unfolded, it's a bad look.

The facts could all be on their side but there still will be a segment of fans and media that will never be convinced, and then the story won't go away. I wrote elsewhere that the President doesn't strike me as the type to be willing to deal with this so I'm speculating he's going to want to get rid of Meyer (and probably Gene Smith) and start fresh. 

I expect this week to be quiet while the committee investigates and Meyer negotiates a buyout. Unless he clearly breached his contract by not reporting correctly, I think they'll have a hard time proving that they fired him for cause, so he will probably get most of the $38 million in his buyout (I read that number on the board but didn't confirm. Let me know if it's inaccurate).

Suspend

He's gone. He'll sit out this season then become Notre Dame's new coach in early January.  

I think he is gone.  I don't see how he can come back now given the following:

1.  Lied at Media Day.  At least he admitted to as much in his Friday statement.  If he did indeed know about the 2015 incidents involving Zach Smith and properly reported it, why lie at Media Day?  Also, it wasn't like he was asked once about the situation and lied, he was asked multiple times about it and denied any knowledge of the situation each time.  If he is retained because he did in fact report the allegations as he should, the questions and digging by the media as to why he lied at Media Day will be non stop.  I personally think there is a lot more going on with this situation than the public knows about, and the media will eventually find it.

2.  Ohio State responded to the McMurphy article by ... putting Urban on Administrative Leave, which typically leads to a firing or resignation.  Why go that route if Urban knew and reported properly?  That makes no sense whatsoever.  Even if Gene Smith knew of the 2015 allegations, as Zach Smith stated on Friday, making it appears as though the Athletic Department (and Urban by extension?) knew what was going on, why is Urban currently on Administrative Leave?  Furthermore, if that was the case, why did Ohio State just form an investigative committee?  Would that imply this issue go a lot deeper to the point of a lack of institutional control?  If so, they are all gone.  I find it hard to believe that committee was formed as a "CYA" measure in order to bring Urban back.

3.  Urban releases a statement on his own Twitter account on Friday (not an official Ohio State press release) indicating that he lied at Media Day, reported the allegations properly and in the process threw others at Ohio State under the bus.  That to me doesn't seem like a move you make if you want to keep your current job.  If you did in fact report the situation properly, why not just wait until the investigation concludes and Ohio State can issue their own statement stating you did what you were supposed to do?  On top of all of that, as many have stated, this statement makes a lot more sense if you view it from the perspective that Urban knows he is gone and just positioning himself to not be fired for cause.

I had a very hard time believing a domestic violence problem with one of his assistant coaches would cause Urban to lose his job at Ohio State, but the way Urban and Ohio State have responded these past couple of days makes me think there is a lot more going on here that currently meets the eye.  He is gone, and I have a feeling there is a lot more to be uncovered here.

The main question in my mind is this:  If he followed proper procedure in 2015, why did he feel the need to lie multiple times at the press conference?  Usually lies are told to cover something up.  Why did he repeatedly lie if he wasn’t at fault?

The president of OSU needs to decide if OSU is to be taken seriously as an institution of higher learning, or is OSU merely a football team with a second rate university attached.   The choice is that stark.  What’s more,  I’m afraid the response of their fan base merely confirms every negative stereotype about Buckeye fans.  Winning uber alles.  I don’t understand the joy of winning if you cheat.

I simply don't trust Ohio State to fire him. If anything, a 2-3 game suspension and then an apology and alligator tears and video footage of Tim Tebow praying with him. The media jumps on Urban's "heartfelt" admission of guilt and write hagiographies of him the rest of the season. 

If (he) go there will be trouble...

if (he) stay it will be double...

Bye, bye Urbz!  OSU is so stocked even a coach of average abilities will still win.

I think he goes. As much as I hate their football program, I have nothing against the university as an institution of higher learning and research. And as a long-time academic, I guarantee you he will lose the faculty (if he hasn't already). The university is more important than its football program, which will survive this scandal anyway.

At some point, the trustees will realize that they will still pack the stadium with another coach. 

Ubrz will be suspended for halftime for the game against Maine School for the Deaf and Blind. When all is said and done he will come out smelling like a rose and continue coaching in Columbus. Why? Because he wins and that is all that matters there and the kids don't go there to play school. Sad to say this is just a small bump in the road for him in an otherwise HORRIBLE situation.

He’s staying.  What did you expect?

I would be fine with beating his ass constently to trash his perfect record.  Do that and they’ll throw him under the wagons they’re circling now.

The brand controls leadership's decision process and, unfortunately, Meyer is a large part of the brand. Three taps on his knuckels with a rubber ruler and a 2-game suspension, and OSU will call it good.  They then reel off 12 wins.  Shelly will get a quiet early retirement.

I don’t think a suspension is a viable option as it would indicate some sort of misconduct on Meyers part. Covering up for a man who beats his wife is pretty gross, so if it’s found to be true, OSU’s only option would be to terminate with cause.

I’m pretty sure their plan is to deflect everything away from Meyer as much as possible.

When the story broke I was 95% sure he would get canned. I think it’s closer to a coin flip now, but I still think he gets fired.

He stays. Some other school is bound to have issues during camp and the media will move on. Once that pressure is off he’ll be playing the forgiveness card. They’ll rally behind him as if he’s some hero and be strong as ever. 

Stay/ suspend. It’s the same and that’s what will happen. 

Story first broke, I thought he was done. After statement I thought he was angling to come back. Today I am back to thinking he’s gone. OSU of all people would know if he reported the 2018 incident, so there would be no reason to put him on leave if he did. Plus he has embarrassed the University and made them use resources to investigate something that could’ve been avoided if he was just truthful at media days. Say the correct thing there and this whole thing would’ve been settled last week.

Suspended with someone else taking the fall. He's too valuable to OSU to fire.

He stays, OSU only got rid of Tressle because they knew it was 90% they would get Urban... they don't have a plan B so they will figure out some way to keep him.  Media will move on, OSU continues to dominate, blah.  BUT Urban's undefeated record against Michigan falls at some point so yeah!

I'm leaning towards suspension.

But the longer it takes OSU to release a decision the more I think he could be forced out or bought out.

Urban Meyer has beaten Michigan six straight times. It will take more than a "he said, she said" to oust him from his head coaching job.

Over on ElevenWarriors several of the Bucknuts are convinced that Ed Wariner is behind all this.

I was in Columbus yesterday for a family event attended by a large group of Buckeye fans.  I listened quietly as they were doing their best to justify Meyer's survival, but they couldn't do it.  They were pretty deflated.  I think he is gone as is Gene Smith.  The non-Buckeyes from Columbus (who were not Michigan fans and one an employee of the University) claimed Smith is the most corrupt AD in College Football and had no problem telling the Buckeye fans this quite emphatically.  After the Meyer/Smith, Tressell, basketball, wrestling and swimming/diving scandals there wasn't anyone who could pose an argument.

While much of the non-alumni fan base of each team probably cares more about the reputations of the sports teams than the university per se, lf this happened at Michigan, far more likely the head coach would be gone. But that's because (at least for alums), the conduct and reputation of the university is more important than the the excellence of the football team.

At Ohio State, for the alums, that is less likely to be the case; and that is understandable given their success on the football against Michigan relative to academic or institutional comparisons.

 

3-4 game suspension.  Will tack on the TCU game for appearances.  No way those jokers kill their golden goose - winning over morality everytime with that school and fanbase.  Never thought I'd say this, but Michigan should consider leaving the Big10.  Moo U, Ped State and now this with OSU - disgusting.  No longer want any association with those enablers.

Short suspension...nothing significant...won't miss any B1G games. Just the ways this will roll.

Suspend.  The typical slap on the wrist for misbehaving players  - He will sit out the first quarter of the first game

I always thought he was gonna skate by a 2-3 game suspension. But I don’t know now. I think he’s fired or resigns by weeks end! You cannot can Tressel for lying about tattoos and not fire Meyer for knowing about physical abuse for years and not doing anything about it.

By Meyer Liar! 

My old age cynicism makes me predict he stays.  My heartfelt hope is that he is fired.  I don't hope he is fired because he is successful; I hope he is fired because I think he is a horrible person and I want a horrible person taken down.  I have always thought he is a phony snake and this incident has just brought who he is into the light.  He lied repeatedly at media days.  He then claimed he did not mean to be "inaccurate".  Of course he did! That's exactly what he meant to do.  That's who he is.  Do horrible things, lie if caught, get away with it. If caught in lie, claim you didn't mean to be "inaccurate", act sorry, back to business as usual.  I am so tired of people like this being rewarded for being horrible.  For once, I want horribleness exposed and removed.