11/21/2020 – Michigan 48, Rutgers 42 (3OT) – 2-3 Big Ten

If there's one thing I've tried to incorporate into my brain over the course of writing about sports it's this: performances are not consistent.

Over a relatively long span of time a player can be expected to do X. Over shorter spans a player can wildly exceed or underperform his true level. And "shorter spans" can be astoundingly long, from the perspective of someone drawing meaning from a single game. The best example I can throw at you now is Strauss Mann, who has ~120 games of .930+ goaltending bookending a brief season-long disaster:

Mann also had 14 USHL playoff games at .932 for people double-checking the ~120

In basketball, Tim Hardaway Jr is a career 35% three-point shooter in the NBA. At Michigan his performance there went 37%, 28%, 37%. Duncan Robinson has a solid case for the best shooter on the planet in the Year of Our Lord 2020; through the first 10 games of his senior season he was shooting 30% from deep and everyone was writing him off.

You want curling examples? I've got curling examples. USA Curling more or less explicitly told John Shuster to die in a fire after finishing 10th and 11th out of 12 in consecutive Olympics. Shuster cobbled together a crew of ne'er do wells, won the national championship repeatedly, and then won an Olympic gold medal.

Football? Let me google some details about this obscure sport. [typing sounds] …interesting… [more typing] …it's like rugby except discrete… well. Let me show you some idiot talking about a Foot-Ball Quarter-Back replacing the starter mid-game during a year of worry and discontent:

Basic stuff... that felt like a revelation. O'Korn's quick, open throws stood in contrast to Speight's struggles to identify open guys the last few games. Twice Michigan picked up catch-and-run conversions on outs that had to be thrown with accuracy and timing to provide YAC. They were. Ditto Gentry's mesh touchdown, which O'Korn knew was open before he even turned around off of play action. This is basic quarterbacking being executed very well. That's huge progress for O'Korn, and apparently the offense.

And then he got dialed in. I gave him 6 DOs in this game, which is a lot on just 26 throws, and I shorted him one on his scramble escapades. The others were no-doubters. This throw is not only between two guys in a tight window but leads Gentry upfield and cannot be better placed for a catch and run:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wd7-D0sd9bE&feature=emb_logo

One 15 yard penalty later, Michigan faces first and 25 with Purdue breathing down O'Korn's neck. O'Korn stands in, takes the hit, and gives Gentry a chance to make a play.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=moYO8YubAYw&feature=emb_logo

1) Yes, throw it at the Ent. 2) He even puts this outside of the defender. Given the circumstances this about as good as it gets.

O'Korn leapt off the bench in relief of an injured Wilton Speight, completing 18/26 passes for 10.4 YPA, was the future of the position for one (1) week, and was thereafter a small child lost in a department store. Bet you wish I stuck with the curling examples.

----------------------------------------------------------------

Now we must consider Cade McNamara. McNamara came off the bench, sparked the offense, and led Michigan to a win. He was calm; he sprinkled in some tough throws in the face of pressure. He looked pretty good. I think we should hold off on expectations that he will continue being pretty good until we see some more. Let's play Pick The Box Score Against Rutgers:

1. 31/43, 319 yards, 7.4 YPA
2. 27/36, 260 yards, 7.2 YPA

Door #2 is McNamara. Door #1? Rocky Lombardi. (Lombardi did have two interceptions. One was his WR running the wrong route; the second was Lombardi forcing the ball in desperation mode.) Rutgers may not be very good at football.

To be explicitly clear, this is also what I was advocating after the Minnesota game:

Now tell me about Milton. Be EFFUSIVE.

First I want to pump the brakes

I TOLD YOU TO BE EFFUSIVE

This was a beautiful way to break in a new quarterback against a team that didn't really know what was coming and the number of different things Michigan asked him to do was relatively limited. We don't know how good he is at throws that aren't screens and wide open slants/posts across the middle.

Post snap reads were minimal. These days it's extremely hard to tell if something is a genuine RPO or a called pass …there weren't even many opportunities to puzzle about it. They kept it simple.

Michigan never put in any reads, presumably because Milton wouldn't execute them consistently. Maybe McNamara can. Maybe he's the answer. But expecting QB3 to suddenly blow up when the rest of the program is in the shape it's in… well, it's optimistic. We literally just did this. Water status: holding.

[After THE JUMP: we soldier on]

AWARDS

Known Friends and Trusted Agents Of The Week

you're the man now, dog

#1 Cade McNamara. See above. Did lead Michigan to all of their points, give or take some special teams adventures.

#2 Hassan Haskins. Grabbed hold of the RB1 job in the second half by grinding out tough yards in unlikely situations. 25 carries(!) seems like an impossible number given the way things have gone thus far this season. 4.4 YPC against Rutgers doesn't sound amazing. Unfortunately, it kind of is.

#3 Giles Jackson. The foremost amongst Michigan receivers because he did not fumble one, as Johnson did, and also chipped in a kick return touchdown. Had one tough back shoulder opportunity he did not bring in but otherwise very good. Needs more touches.

Honorable mentions: I'm dubious anyone on defense qualifies. Johnson does despite the fumble thanks to the sell-job he put on the safety for the wide-open TD; Bell caught a few passes and had some critical blocks that were either on screens or not technically OPI.

KFaTAotW Standings. (Scoring: 8 points for first, 5 for second, 3 for third, 1 for HM. Points from ties adjudicated by an ankylosaur named Sharon.)

14: Joe Milton (#1 Minnesota, #3 MSU, #3 Indiana)
11: Giles Jackson(#1 MSU, #3 Rutgers)
10: Dax Hill (#2 MSU, #2 Indiana), Ronnie Bell (HM Minnesota, #1 Indiana, HM Rutgers)
8: Cade McNamara(#1 Rutgers)
7: Hassan Haskins(HM Minnesota, HM MSU, #2 Rutgers)
5: Kwity Paye(T2 Minnesota, HM MSU, HM Indiana)
3: Aidan Hutchinson(T2 Minnesota), Michael Barrett(#3 Minnesota)
2: Cornelius Johnson(HM Indiana, HM Rutgers)
1: Ben Mason (HM Minnesota), Jaylen Mayfield (HM Minnesota), Roman Wilson (HM MSU), Brad Robbins(HM Indiana),

Who's Got It Better Than Us(?) Of The Week

Michigan intercepting Rutgers on fourth down to win a triple overtime game. Wait, come back!

Honorable mention: Johnson torching a Rutgers DB and McNamara hitting him; the untouched Jackson return; the semblance of a run game.

?MARCUS HALL EPIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK.

Rutgers getting to overtime when their stick QB dragged multiple Michigan defenders into the endzone.

Honorable mention: All field goals; the fourth-down TD to set up the two point conversion; playing with no free safety against a post

OFFENSE

Changing what you call. I'll get into this in more detail but McNamara's entry coincided with a change in playcalling. Michigan ran a lot more quick stuff to the outside and found a ground game. With limited exceptions it didn't seem like the QB switch enabled those changes. (McNamara scoring a short touchdown on a bonafide zone read stands out as an exception.) The QB certainly benefited from them.

Haskins finds the cutbacks. McNamara also benefited from the Michigan ground game ceasing to be nonexistent. First half rush yards: 33. Second half: 129. Much of this was Hassan Haskins finding himself surrounded in the backfield and squeezing through cutback lanes while batting away arm tackles. Other parts were bonafide RPS+ plays, like a counter trap:

That may be the first time since the Minnesota game that Michigan got rushing yards based on play design.

And then things get put together. Michigan followed that up with a little pop pass for a TD:

These are not opportunities afforded to you when you can't run the ball one iota.

Imprecision, eventual improvement. Michigan's pick game has been weak all year, with missed opportunities early in this one. Things did get a better. Bell executed a perfect pick on a slant touchdown where he located a defender and turned around, butt out, to eliminate him.

Then he jumped up and down like Pat Fitzgerald about it. So we value these improvements.

It happened! Chris Evans. Split wide. Gets a linebacker.

Michigan borfs the pick route(see above) and Evans still barely gets touched by that linebacker. I can now fade into oblivion. It took five years, but it happened. o

DEFENSE

Also in performances are not consistent. Ye gods, Dax Hill had a disaster. He was directly responsible for both of Rutgers's longest pass plays. On the first he tried to catch an arm-punt in his chest instead of high-pointing the ball or running through the wide receiver.

go get the ball

On the second he was Bartleby the Free Safety: asked to play the deep middle against a post he said he would prefer not to. He also got victimized on the Vedral completion from the sideline. He did do better at high-pointing the ball on the final snap.

It is notable that almost all previous Dax Hill events have been Hill in man coverage and not Hill trying to play a deep zone. This doesn't mean that he's incapable of doing so—when you play a deep zone correctly the ball generally does not get thrown at you. But yeesh.

Various walk-ons. Michigan played Jess Speight at DT, Adam Shibley at LB, and Hunter Reynolds at safety. All acquitted themselves fairly well. It's still a major issue that Michigan's top backups at DT, LB, and S are walk-ons because this team has almost no experienced depth. The only scholarship backup linebackers are true freshmen. It's not quite as raided at safety, but the only non-true freshman scholarship backup options there are German Green and Quinten Johnson, who is coming off a serious injury and may as well be a true freshman.

I don't have to tell anyone that Michigan's roster management has been a disaster, but here's the latest manifestation of it.

Reynolds did a thing. He got over the top of a slot fade to Bo Melton.

This has not happened in a long time. You can only get over the top of route on the edge of the field if you cheat to it; that's what Reynolds did. Since the color guy was saying "this is going to be a slot fade to Bo Melton" and I was thinking "oh man this is going to be a slot fade to Bo Melton" this wasn't the most out-there thing to anticipate. Still nice to see a safety make a play over the top.

Now it's slants. Rutgers's tying drive was a boatload of slants on which almost every member of the secondary got beaten so badly there was no contest on the catch. Green, Gray, and Hill all gave up first downs on third and long. Not great.

Not even mad about this one though. Rutgers's tribute to Vincent Smith could not have been better executed.

If that ball doesn't force the running back to catch it while going flat out Michigan likely tackles that in the backfield.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Well, he is fast. Giles Jackson had the world's easiest kick return touchdown. He caught the ball on the five, angled towards the sideline, and then ran straight. This is as close as you're ever going to get to a 100-meter dash in football pads and Jackson crossed the goal line at 14:50.

Maybe make some field goals? This is my advice. Kick it through, not around.

MISCELLANEOUS

A horrible spot. FWIW, the fourth and one attempt where Milton was ruled down was a preposterous spot. He easily made the 42. I can't complain that Michigan didn't challenge that, because they literally never overturn spots that aren't on the goal line.

The usual clock management. Michigan's two-minute drill:

:24 - 1st dn - incomplete
:19 - 2nd dn - incomplete
:15 - 3rd dn - complete to Corum
:09 - 1st dn - complete to Jackson
:05 - 2nd dn - false start
:05 - 2nd dn - complete to Sanristil
01: - 1st dn - missed FG

— Due# (@JDue51) November 22, 2020

This is a full-on Dead Dove Do Not Eat situation. Michigan ran four plays in the first 90 seconds of their two minute drill. This is never changing.

Frames Janklin of the week. Greg Schiano had a third and ten on his twenty five in OT; field goal wins it. So he has his quarterback kneel down for a two yard loss so he can center the ball. The ensuing field goal fades wide. 1) If it was kicked from the right hash it's good. 2) If the field goal is five yards closer because you ran for three yards on third down, it's good.

I'm supposed to have a joke about this or something but instead I can only gape at it.