ronnie bell
Previously: Podcast 15.0A, 15.0B, 15.0C. The Story. Quarterback. Running Back. Wide Receiver. Tight End. Interior OL. Defensive Interior. Edge. Linebacker. Cornerback. Safety. Special Teams.
Last year this question was "does losing Gattis matter?" The answer was "absolutely not":
I loved the gameplans down the stretch, but if Michigan put up two of the worst ten scores in UFR history early in the year, and things got a lot better late, and then Gattis decamped for 7-5-ass Miami after making the Cofopoff, what is the most likely explanation? Gattis got sidelined.
This was accurate. Gattis trashed Miami's offense, got fired after one year, and is now back with Locksley at Maryland. Insert Matt Weiss. Michigan's offense dunked on OSU again, moved up four slots in SP+, and looked exactly like it had when Gattis was around: meat, meat, meat, and meat.
Then Weiss took being the Madden Kid thing too far and got booted for still-mysterious computer access crimes. Kirk Campbell was elevated to QB coach and Sherrone Moore became the full-time offensive coordinator. In one area this has already been a massive win, as Campbell appears to be one NIL package away from landing #1 overall 2025 prospect Bryce Underwood. Ok, but what changes on the field?
[After THE JUMP: McCarthy items]
Phonebooks (not that phonebook) are here. Bill Connelly has released his preseason rankings for 2023. Michigan's up there, as you might imagine:
Penn State? I guess Penn State. Drew uber Alles, per SP+. Notable that there is a pretty big gulf between #4 and #5 there, and and even bigger gulf between Penn State and the rest of the Big Ten. The next-best B10 team is Wisconsin at #25, followed by Iowa at 27 and Minnesota at 30. MSU is at 47.
One reason Michigan ranks so high is that they're 5th in returning production and that may undersell it a bit because Connelly's offensive formula has returning RB yards as just 6% of the total. I think that's generally reasonable since RBs are fairly plug and play these days but probably underrates the impact getting Donovan Edwards and Blake Corum back has for M. Let's read a nice thing:
Michigan (third in SP+ in 2022, fifth in returning production in 2023)
When FSU has a chance to be the story, FSU is the story. That's the way these things tend to work. But it's pretty jarring to see a team that made the CFP one year also rank in the top five in returning production the next.The Wolverines are projected to return quarterback J.J. McCarthy, running back and Heisman hopeful Blake Corum and nine of their 12 defenders with 400-plus snaps. Plus, Jim Harbaugh made deft use of the portal, adding reinforcements to both the linebacking corps and an already-awesome offensive line. Both Ohio State and Penn State enter 2023 with hopes of preventing a third straight Big Ten title for Michigan, but they'll have to clear a really high bar.
Yeah. Clear our bar, please. FWIW, Connelly has Michigan at 50/50 to finish 11-1 or better, which means they're about 80-90% to enter the OSU game as a virtual playoff quarterfinal, give or take the backdoor route.
[After THE JUMP: Aussie gonna Aussie.]
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