Sometimes Things Are Bad, And That's Okay
either it will work or it will not work [Eric Upchurch]
Hey guys! As you may have noticed, the theme of this week on the blog is "nah." When I thought to myself "I should start a Michigan blog" back in 2004 I did not anticipate that about every three years things would descend into a melee of recriminations and stupidity. Insofar as it's possible I am opting out of this edition.
I could point out various reasons that things aren't going well again, but what's the point? I've already said the things, and people willing to listen have already read them. What's the point in arguing with this guy who's all up in my inbox?
Brian, your mattress story ,while creative in another genre, makes michigan football fans look like a bunch of smoked out , entitled, arrogant assholes. How so? It puts an emphasis on quirky,smarter than the rest of football fan bases,and takes away from the team of mostly working class players whom have little in common with you or most of your followers.
Its time to end this little money making with little to no sweat, blood,or tears called mgoblog while profitting off the Michigan athletes and get a real job...oh wait, that is not in your genetic makeup.
There isn't one. Nor is there a point in arguing with people who don't think Brady Hoke and his #37 and #20 2014-15 recruiting classes don't still have an impact on Michigan's performance. While assaulting previous regimes for failures has been somewhere between plausible and a holy quest, to do so after this start from Harbaugh...
In Harbaugh’s first season, Michigan doubled its win total from five to 10 and improved from 48th in S&P+ to fifth. The Wolverines won seven games by at least 21 points and lost to only three opponents (Utah, Michigan State, Ohio State) that combined to go 34-7. Against Utah, they lost because of a pick six. Against Michigan State, well, you remember that one. Not a bad debut.
In 2016, Michigan came within a spot of the Big Ten East title. If officials mark J.T. Barrett’s fourth-down conversion attempt slightly differently, the Wolverines go to the Big Ten title game and likely go to the College Football Playoff. As it stands, they merely backed up the previous season with another 10-3 record, another top-five S&P+ finish, and losses by a combined three points against Ohio State and Florida State teams that won 21 games. All this despite a late-season shoulder injury to quarterback Wilton Speight.
...given Harbaugh's track record is asinine. To do so after Michigan returned the fewest starters of any Power 5 team and lost their top quarterback, left tackle, and wide receiver to injury is brain dead. Yes, I thought things would be going better, but my preseason prediction didn't bake in injuries to Speight and Black; without those the chances that Michigan is headed towards 9-3 at worst are what, 90%? Have we already forgotten what a truly bad team looks like?
I get it if you're a rival and you're getting your yucks in. If you're a Michigan fan and your reaction isn't along the lines of "well, this is very disappointing but lets see what happens next year" I don't want to talk to you. Because what good would it do?
October 24th, 2017 at 3:58 PM ^
Lloyd Carr won an f'n National Championship
I'll take "another Lloyd Carr" in a minute.
October 24th, 2017 at 5:42 PM ^
Let's examine Lloyd Carr's tenure:
1. He won a freaking National Championship! While fielding perhaps the greatest defense in the history of college football.]
2. Out of 13 seasons, 6 were at least 10 win season (including the perfect National Championship season). With one exception, the rest were all 8-win or better, and most were 9-win or better.
3. In 5 of his season, he lost one or fewer conference games. He never lost more than 3 conference games.
4. In 13 seasons, he won two outright B10 championships and tied for 3 more.
5. During his entire tenure, there was no even a hint of any NCAA impropriety. He ran perhaps the classiest program possible.
6. For those who don't like Harbaugh's "antics" (I personally don't mind them and usually like what he does publicly), Carr almost never made headlines for anything other than winning.
Yup, I would take another Lloyd Carr era any day. My hope is that Harbaugh can replicate that level of success. My expectaiton is that he will, but the roster was so uneven as a result of so many coaching changes in a short period of time and it will take a few years of stability to get the program to where it needs to be (i.e. upperclassmen starting in most spots, redshirting all OL and QB, not playing OL until they have had 2-3 years in the program, never again playing a freshman WR, etc.)
October 24th, 2017 at 1:03 PM ^
I'm sure you didn't write that post looking for a bunch of back pats and atta boys, but in all seriousness THANK YOU. From the looks of it I am not the only one whose daily routine involves digesting mgoblog in its entirety.
Any one who is unappreciative of your material has a great option...don't read it. Or here's an idea, start your own blog.
Thanks again for all you do to keep fans engaged and informed. Not the best season I've ever been through, but lets be real...certainly isnt the worst either...by a long shot.
Keep up the good work!!
October 24th, 2017 at 1:09 PM ^
you sure have to deal w/ some stupid shit.
more seriously, i hope you all know how great this place is: you've created a unique place for UM fans. I quite doubt that it could be replicated.
Stay strong, keep on, and, of course, Go Blue!
October 24th, 2017 at 1:43 PM ^
Thank you, Brian.
There is a certain segment of Michigan fans who think it's Michigan's birthright to have a national championship contender every single year. You tell them that most of the top coaches in college football, at some of the most prestigious programs, finished with worse records in their third year than Harbaugh will have this season and they respond with something along the lines of This is Michigan, etc. Well, since the schedule moved to from 11 games to 12 in 2006, Michigan has only had four 10+ win seasons. Harbaugh has two of those. Michigan's storied history doesn't guarantee them anything in the present day. Some fans have an over-inflated view of what this program has been recently and it makes them feel entitled and expect more from this year's team than they should. There are still things to fix and it's hard to be patient, but Harbaugh didn't suddenly forget how to coach or build a program; it just takes time. In the end, it'll be worth the wait.
October 24th, 2017 at 1:12 PM ^
October 24th, 2017 at 1:14 PM ^
for writing this. well put
October 24th, 2017 at 1:15 PM ^
Fire Beilein
October 24th, 2017 at 1:19 PM ^
I think one of the reasons for the disappointment, in spite of the loss of players, etc... is Coach Harbaugh's track records in year three at previous locales:
2006 San Diego, repeats the previous year's 11-1 record, goes undefeated in conference
2009 Stanford, win total increases by (from 5 to 8), and increases by 2 in conference
2012 San Francisco, win total increases by 0.5, from 11-4-1 to 12-4.
If Michigan wins less than 10 games this year, it will be his first decline in year 3 of a program.
I'm not saying that should necessarily have been the expectation with the number of starters lost, I'm just sayin' (also, I think Michigan fans might have been a little more understanding, if it hadn't been the OL - the raw wound that fans may have most wanted to go away - that was the biggest disappointment).
October 24th, 2017 at 1:19 PM ^
Good lord. Not all Year Threes are created equal.
October 24th, 2017 at 2:01 PM ^
NO THEY ARE
October 24th, 2017 at 1:37 PM ^
Rosters matter. A backup from the AAC is leading the least experienced team in America out on the field every week.
October 24th, 2017 at 6:49 PM ^
October 24th, 2017 at 2:36 PM ^
Isn't this team comparable to 2009 Stanford? I don't know how looking at the trend from the previous year is relevant when Harbaugh was starting from 1-11 at Stanford at starting with solid teams at Michigan.
October 24th, 2017 at 1:17 PM ^
Thank God for some freaking sanity. Great piece.
October 24th, 2017 at 1:19 PM ^
This could have gone in a Snowflakes thread. \s
October 24th, 2017 at 1:21 PM ^
Thank fucking God you wrote this. We were amazing last year. We're going to be at worst 8-4 with the youngest team in the country. That's a pretty good record for, say it again, THE YOUNGEST TEAM IN THE COUNTRY. And all those guys got tons of reps this year.
A senior Grant Perry with a healthy Tarik Black and a seasoned DPJ? Sign me up. A senior Karan Higdon and Chris Evans coming back? Sounds pretty good. Another year of McGentry? Awesome. Bredeson and Owenu with a full season of starting experience? Yep, that sounds good.
October 24th, 2017 at 1:20 PM ^
Agreed that getting salty at Harbaugh is understandable but dumb.
On the other hand, as I said on Ron Utah's thread, one of the things I like best about CFB is the question of what strategy works best with the somewhat random collection of tools a team finds itself with during the regular season. I'd love to hear more ideas of what we might try.
October 24th, 2017 at 2:26 PM ^
Utah's thread is a lot of garbage. Harbaugh put an offense in place in 2015 that the players could execute - basic stuff. He added more to that in 2016, but was still cnetered on gap blocking - something his OL could deal with. His offense is complex, and asks a lot of the QB. It also expects the WRs and RBs to make the same decisions about coverage as the QB does - on the fly. He'll changes things around to help a backup QB - he has with JOK, extensively. But he will not run a different scheme. If he doesn't get it installed, it will never be learned. This was as good a year as any - probably better seeing how young it is. As the team gains experience, it will start to be able to roll juniors and seniors that already have experience in the system.
That is exactly what Alabama, OSU, and Clemson are doing - rolling in experienced backups when starters leave. Michigan doesn't have very much experience anywhere, let alone as backups right now!
October 24th, 2017 at 9:37 PM ^
October 24th, 2017 at 9:38 PM ^
October 24th, 2017 at 1:21 PM ^
Solves Everything.
October 24th, 2017 at 1:22 PM ^
Said, Harbaugh, take it slow
It'll work itself out fine
All we need is just a little patience
Said, sugar, make it slow
And we come together fine
All we need is just a little patience
October 24th, 2017 at 1:23 PM ^
October 24th, 2017 at 1:24 PM ^
I am 100% with Brian. I am glad to disagree with him on occasion, and have done so when warranted. But man, the expectations, the arrogance, the entitlement of too many in the fanbase is just unreal. "Unacceptable?" "Fire Pep, fire Drevno?" "No excuse for this hot garbage?" "Harbaugh doesn't know how to play call?" Seriously, I can't even read through the comments anymore, and minimize my own comments anymore. It is too painful.
My two cents:
- I strongly believe JH is here for the long haul. I really hope he is.
- I believe there will be some improvement next year, but really think it will take until 2019 for the OL to be solid and ascending.
- If Michigan continues to recruit in the top 10, we will be in the hunt.
- We have had the bad luck of hitting a time when OSU has a great coach and recruiter in Urban Meyer. It is just the reality. This is what it feels like to be in the same division as the Patriots, or the Golden State Warriors.
October 24th, 2017 at 1:36 PM ^
I'm with this in general, but the whole "it'll be 20XX until Y is good, so let's just wait it out" is basically all we've been hearing as a fanbase for 10 years...
October 24th, 2017 at 4:04 PM ^
I should say that I think it is 2019 and beyond that the OL will be good. And I think the OL will be better in 2018 than in 2017. No excuses at any other positions, imhe.
October 24th, 2017 at 1:25 PM ^
October 24th, 2017 at 1:30 PM ^
Nodding and agreeing.
October 24th, 2017 at 1:33 PM ^
Double Post
October 24th, 2017 at 1:31 PM ^
Amen Amen. I'm singing the Mattress pro-logue, don't go insane hallelujahs!
It's a season. One with bad injuries. Could things on the coaching staff be improved (WR coach anyone?) Yes. But C'mon. People here are parroting Valenti.
October 24th, 2017 at 1:31 PM ^
Dilly dilly, Brian.
October 24th, 2017 at 1:32 PM ^
A brilliant and much needed post. Thank you, Brian.
October 24th, 2017 at 1:32 PM ^
I tend to be a rain cloud, so while I generally agree with the sentiment of this post, I also feel like the reaction to the negative nancies in the fanbase have caused some serious revisionism.
Why are so many people putting so much impact on a QB who had regressed to the point of performance similar to JOK at PSU and a WR with 149 career yards that came on pretty routine catches and wasn't that good at blocking.
This is not to say that those injuries didn't hurt to some degree, but add those guys in and this offense is still a terrible mess and PSU still destroys Michigan.
And my disappointment in this team isn't just a snapshot of a struggling team, but the projection of a program that is going to continue to struggle a bit. Basically, this team doesn't appear to have any saviors at QB or tackle to make what appears to be an extremely difficult schedule in 2018.
PSU will lose Barkley and Hamilton, but they basically everyone else and repace those two with a former 5* in Miles Sanders and the number 3 WR in the 2018 class. MSU returns everyone but Allen and Frey, and OSU stays loaded.
So yeah, 9-3 or 8-4 and 3/4 in the division sucks, but minus a big turnaround down the stretch (a win at OSU, maybe), reasonable projections put 2018 around that as well.
October 24th, 2017 at 3:15 PM ^
PSU will lose Barkley and Hamilton, but they basically everyone elsePSU also loses Gesicki, and most of their defense.
October 24th, 2017 at 5:06 PM ^
They return 4 of the front 7, and the two defensive tackles they lose are only slightly better than the backups they return. They get back John Reid who started at corner last year and tore his ACL before the season, and also the corner who plays field when they go to nickel.
The only place on defense they really don't return a bunch of experienced talent is safety.
On offense they will be more talented than Michigan everywhere but tight end.
October 24th, 2017 at 1:35 PM ^
October 24th, 2017 at 1:35 PM ^
But that's what it essentially takes to win in this conference and the division Michigan plays in given the competition. At Michigan, we often look at our roster and expect it will mostly outperform the competition. So, when that doesn't happen, it's hard to acdept.
Look, the reason seasoned teams almost always do better than others is because of senior leadership that can change the dynamic on the field when adversity hits. That's the difference frequently between beating certain teams, holding on to win in OT and getting blown out.
In this league, your season frequently turns on your schedule and where you play your biggest games. Which means next year will be a grinder with trips to South Bend, East Lansing and Columbus. So, handling yourself in those hostile places decides your fate.
I mean the worse part of Saturday was getting beaten badly by matchups and plays that with certain adjustments might have altered game circumstnaces. PSU misdirected Michigan's defensive agression to such an extent that it along with it's speed wound up being a detriment. Overreacting to Barkley's movements enabled McSorley to go off as a runner.
Certain teams are better equipped to use misdirection more effectively based on their personnnel against this team. So, Penn State can run it up on Michigan while Michigan State, Purdue and Indiana can do just enough with decent defense to give this team fits.
I mean the season's biggest loss wasn't in Happy Valley, it was in Ann Arbor against MSU. That loss has reframed the season just like Iowa changed it a year ago.
In the Harbaugh era, Michigan has played two bad halves and were not good enough in losing to Ohio State and Penn State. You can analyze every other win and loss and point to one play or a series of them that were the difference between a loss and victory. Until Michigan learns how to win and perform under any circumstance, at night, in front of ugly away crowds, they will not succeed the way we want.
There are no tangible answers until everyone steps up and this team plays as if it expects to win every game no matter what. This is the hardest lesson to learn regardless of your talent level.
October 24th, 2017 at 1:37 PM ^
October 24th, 2017 at 1:37 PM ^
October 24th, 2017 at 1:38 PM ^
October 24th, 2017 at 1:48 PM ^
our rival "had it" just a couple of years ago with its starting (and even 2nd string) QB out. Thus the narrative -- why can't we have nice things?
That said, I agree with you 100 percent.
October 24th, 2017 at 1:52 PM ^
Michigan didn't have it when their starting QB was in. What do you think are the chances Michigan's offense has it next year when he is back?
And really, the narrative of year 3 being the year when big things become apparent tends to be a real thing. Saban, Meyer, Fisher, even Franklin used the cache of a traditional program to build an elite team of their own players by year 3. The only guy who didn't follow that path of immediate elite success was Dabo Sweeney, and I would say he has some institutional advantages not afforded to Harbaugh.
So I'm not saying Michigan can do better than Harbaugh, or that Harbaugh is not a really good coach. But I did expect more by year 3.
October 24th, 2017 at 2:16 PM ^
October 24th, 2017 at 2:25 PM ^
-I explained why. Dabo Sweeney is the only coach in the last year who has won a championship who didn't have an elite team of his own players in place. Saban's young players won a championship in year 3. Fisher's young players won a championship in year 3. Urban Meyer's young players won a championship in year 3. Barkley and McSorley were Franklin recruits in his transition class and led to a B10 championship in year 3.
Not saying that Harbaugh is doomed to a Bo Pelini at Nebraska purgatory, but most of the elite coaches at traditional powers had established an elite team by year 3.
-You are taking my QB statements to say something ludicrous. I am not saying anything about QB depth charts in general. I am saying that in the current Michigan depth chart, there are no good QBs and that none on the roster are likely to make a big difference in this offense. Like Florida or Tennessee, there just aren't good options. However, on both of those teams, they apparently believe their highly-recruited RS Fr QB is good enough to give a shot.
October 24th, 2017 at 2:42 PM ^
October 24th, 2017 at 3:18 PM ^
"Carr went 7-5 after a decade of good seasons. Then they rebounded the next year. Bo went 6-6 in the midst of a legendary career. Dantonio went 3-9 last year."
...and those are three good, but not elite, coaches.
Folks were hoping Harbaugh would be an elite coach.
October 24th, 2017 at 3:29 PM ^
October 24th, 2017 at 4:02 PM ^
"I’d also disagree with your assessment of Bo and Carr."
Bo is just barely inside the top 20 of major college coaches in win percentage, and never won a National Championship - and he spent a lot of that time at Michigan with a major advantage because there were no scholarship limits.
Carr is about 25th in terms of major college coaches in win percentage, but did win one national championship.
Crisler and Yost are the only Michigan football coaches I would put in the "elite" category.
October 24th, 2017 at 10:54 PM ^
Agreed. Dantonio is not an elite coach.
Harbaugh should have another 7 years if you want to compare records, and then... let's see where we are.
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