First Look: 2017 Defense
DEPARTURES IN ORDER OF SIGNIFICANCE.
[Paul Sherman]
- CB Jourdan Lewis. Two-time All-American has case for second-best cover corner in school history. Various excellent stats, none better than this: over his last two years throwing it in the dirt and throwing at Jourdan Lewis were equally productive in terms of QB rating.
- DE Taco Charlton. Rampant in the second half of the season against both run and pass and destined for the first round of the draft. Charlton was the rare WDE to play at 280 pounds and gave Michigan's run defense oomph it will miss even if his replacement keeps up the pass rush productivity.
- SAM Jabrill Peppers. Massively overrated nonentity will be mysteriously drafted in first round this April and have decade-long NFL career. Absence in bowl game went completely unnoticed and did not pave the way for almost all of Dalvin Cook's yards.
- NT Ryan Glasgow. Robot Viking finally started getting appropriately rated as a senior, when he was again an excellent penetrator and disruptor of all things run and pass.
- SDE Chris Wormley. TE obliterator and utterly steady; maybe a hair less than explosive. Pass rush not a huge strength, but that went unnoticed since everyone else was picking QB out of their teeth. Elite run defender capable of playing inside or out.
- CB Channing Stribling. Outstanding year in coverage; if he was any easier to hit with a completion than Lewis it was a narrow thing indeed. Run support an Area For Improvement, as they say. Should still go early in the NFL draft, as he's a legit 6-foot.
- Safeties Delano Hill and Dymonte Thomas. Close to interchangeable, so addressed together: capable of deep zones and slot coverage, these two kept Jabrill Peppers out of coverage almost all year. Tremendous luxury to be able to do that and flip 'em on motion. Thomas did bust a few times for big plays (most prominently against UCF and FSU), but as safety tandems go this might be tops in recent Michigan history.
- ILB Ben Gedeon. Sideline to sideline ILB who couldn't carry wheel routes downfield. Consistent tackler who showed up in the right spot almost every time; took on blocks with aplomb and shed them with authority. Lack of playing time early in career got more inexplicable every game.
- DT Matt Godin. Played well enough early in the season, when Hurst was laid up with a minor injury, to maintain that status for the duration. Was solid in his role; provided little pass rush but effective run defender. Least productive rotation DL by some distance but still meaningfully positive per PFF.
WHAT'S LEFT
get in his belly [Fuller]
- DT Maurice Hurst. Technically not a starter but whatever man. Per PFF, the most productive interior pass rusher in the nation. Huge grades to both them and this sites UFR; with serious uptick in snaps should have breakout senior year and contend for AA status.
- ILB Mike McCray. Resurrected career after long-term injury threatened it and was about 80% revelation. Superior blitzer, tough customer on the inside. Struggled to contain edge runs for much of the year; late improvement in that department.
- CB Jeremy Clark. Injured in game four and Michigan will try to get a sixth year for him. If that comes through Clark is a bolt of experience in a secondary that will otherwise have almost none. Lost his starting job to Stribling but started anyway since Lewis was out for the first three games; has a year of solid starts under his belt and should be a draftable guy.
- DE Rashan Gary. Snaps limited by guys in front of him; impressive and productive when he did get on the field. Physical potential limitless, and should take The Leap as a sophomore.
- DE Chase Winovich. Crazy productive pass rusher who'd show up for a handful of snaps in big-time games and come away with a sack anyway. Per PFF had 27 pressure events in 277 snaps, which is almost precisely the same rate at which Charlton racked them up. Run D occasionally wobbly. Potential breakout player.
- DT Bryan Mone. Second straight injury-plagued year. As a result barely got over the 100-snap threshold that we're using to distinguish "new" from "what's left." Struggled when he did get snaps much of the year, hopefully because he was not 100%. Flashed ability against OSU.
- FS Tyree Kinnel. Promising safety candidate was dimeback for much of the year and did well in that role. Had a couple of Kovacsian TFLs where he'd fly up from outside the picture to kill a guy dead. Coverage, which was reputed to be a strength when he was a recruit, didn't get tested.
- CB Brandon Watson. Nickel corner was beat with some regularity when tested. Doesn't seem to have much upside.
WHAT'S NEW, OR CLOSE ENOUGH, ANYWAY
dread level: rising [Patrick Barron]
Everything! Almost everything, anyway. The DL has some guys who have established a certain level of performance, to the point where only one of them is even sort of "new," that a redshirt junior who would be old except for terrible injury luck.
Dudes flanking McCray. Devin Bush figures to draw into the starting lineup next to McCray since he was the clear #3 ILB last year. That should push the bulkier McCray to MLB and give Bush WLB. Hopefully that would allow McCray to focus more on getting vertical instead of lateral. Bush is very much a spread ILB.
Meanwhile at SAM/Viper(!!!), many different things could happen. Josh Metellus and Jordan Glasgow got Don Brown praise for their work at Viper(!!!) during bowl practices; Noah Furbush is a more traditional LB option at the spot; Khaleke Hudson still seems like a perfect fit as an emphatically box safety; if Michigan can get Willie Gay, recruiting types report that he is an instant impact player.
Either all of the secondary or all but one guy in the secondary. Michigan has a ton of cornerback talent pushing through at a spot where you can get by decently on athleticism. Safety has guys with scattered snaps a year ago and really needs a couple of players to come through.
WHAT'S ROD STEWART 1977
omar comin' [Fuller]
Still the defensive line. Michigan graduates all four starters but this is very much a reload situation, not a rebuild. Michigan figures to start:
- Maurice Hurst, who produced just as much as last year's top starters in 60-70% of their snaps. He is going to be elite.
- Rashan Gary, who was +13 in about 300 snaps as a true freshman and is a holy lock to be real good as the #1 recruit in the country.
- Chase Winovich, who would be coming off a double-digit sack season if he had as many snaps as Charlton, in his first year as a WDE.
- Bryan Mone, who had a series of injury struggles the last two years but flashed his ability on a critical third and short stop against the Buckeyes.
Those guys are very much in contention for the best line in the conference.
Probably cornerback? If Michigan gets Clark back that's a veteran who will be of interest to the NFL as a Sherman-type jumbo CB; I thought he was a B+ guy in 2015 and should get better if allowed to return. Surely Michigan can find Lewis 2.0 from the pile of recruits in shiny wrapping paper they've accumulated.
Don Dang Brown. Brown lived up to the hype and then some. Michigan LBs totaled 43 TFLs as he solved problems with aggression; Michigan is at or near the top of any defensive metric you care to look at. While the copious talent had a lot to do with that, those guys were around last year and Brown still just about halved S&P+'s expected points allowed metric from 13.7 to 7.7.
While there's going to be some regression, Brown's defenses tend to take a year before kicking in to high gear. Increased familiarity with the system should help mitigate the personnel losses.
WHAT'S ROD STEWART 2017
Is Kemp ready to play? Is anyone? [Fuller]
Defensive line depth. Seven different guys saw 250+ snaps last year, with Bryan Mone getting 117 of his own. Four of those guys are gone. There is a shortage of gentlemen ready to step in. This site constantly says that nose tackle is a spot with two starters. Starter #2 at NT is...?
DE is probably fine. Between Reuben Jones, Carlo Kemp, Lawrence Marshall, and Ron Johnson Michigan can find a couple guys to spell the starters. The only DT on the roster other than the projected starters is Mike Dwumfour, a middling three star coming off an injury redshirt. Michigan's bringing in a ton of DT types in this recruiting class but even if they get a top guy like Jay Tufele or Aubrey Solomon, relying on a true freshman in the two deep is alarming. Michigan might have no choice but to move Gary to DT.
Going from Peppers to Not Peppers. The silver lining of his absence almost certainly costing Michigan the Orange Bowl is that I don't have to spend much time explaining why Peppers's departure will be costly. Yes, he tended to go on a ride when he got blocked. Michigan was delighted to take that tradeoff if it meant that you could not outrun Michigan's front seven with Usain Bolt.
WHAT'S HEISENBERG ROD STEWART UNCERTAINTY
[Eric Upchurch]
Safety. You know, I'm almost sanguine about safety these days. After a solid decade of safeties topping out at "eh, he hasn't set his head on fire" and frequently dipping into "welp, he set his head on fire again," Michigan's on a run of guys who are actual positives. It is at this moment that we must have maximum vigilance, for this is when Angry Michigan Safety Hating God loves to strike.
Michigan clearly likes Kinnel. Unfortunately they have few alternatives; it looks like both Hudson and Metellus are tracking towards hits, but are both of those guys box safeties who you don't want to see in deep coverage? I dunno. Mental issues for a couple of true sophomores could pop up as well.
Outside linebackering. Bush will probably be at least all right and could verge on good by the end of the season. SAM/Viper(!!!) could see just about any level of performance and it wouldn't be much of a surprise.
MANDATORY WILD ASS GUESS
What looks like another excellent starting DL and cornerbacks that should pick up the departed's mantle without too much trouble is a good baseline to work from. And while the unit is going to be young—just three seniors are currently projected in the starting lineup—it isn't going to be troublingly so. The only spots at which freshmen are likely to contend are backup DT and maybe somewhere in the secondary.
So while they aren't going to be this year's outfit, which was neck and neck with Alabama for the nation's best, neither are they going to drop off to average. Unfortunately, this is not a fully Harbaugh-ized program so there are some sore spots at which one injury could radically reshape the outlook—someone please wrap the DL starters in cotton until fall—so I reserve the right to repeal the prediction if the wrong guy goes down, but this should be a top 15 S&P+ defense and top 20-ish in YPP and the like.
January 13th, 2017 at 12:44 PM ^
[Kinnel] "Had a couple of Kovacsian TFLs where he'd fly up from outside the picture to kill a guy dead."
Now that is good writing.
January 13th, 2017 at 1:56 PM ^
Literal LOL.
January 13th, 2017 at 12:48 PM ^
and I can't wait for the gobbling of QBs to continue... but that pic above bothers me. He was up and rubbing his belly while the ball was still loose on the ground. Maurice, realize that when you hit people, the ball may tell that player "you're own your own, bud" and run away. Then you can have the ball for dessert.
Wait for the whistle, then rub the tummy.
January 13th, 2017 at 2:26 PM ^
watching that live.
January 13th, 2017 at 3:07 PM ^
Especially since the very next play was Cook's 70 plus yard run on 3rd and 22.
January 13th, 2017 at 3:11 PM ^
Although in fairness, he had almost no chance at recovering that fumble. It bounced to the other side of Francois.
January 13th, 2017 at 10:47 PM ^
True, but he could have legally dropped 300 pounds of DT directly on top of Francois in a (somewhat fake) effort at getting to the ball. The legal extraction of life from a QB is gold on a football field!
January 14th, 2017 at 12:53 AM ^
+1 very good point
January 13th, 2017 at 12:50 PM ^
January 13th, 2017 at 1:00 PM ^
But Coach Brown will be at Nebraska next year! What are we to do?!?!?
January 14th, 2017 at 12:54 AM ^
they deserved a conference trophy at least.
January 13th, 2017 at 12:52 PM ^
is a bit more positive than I am. CBs worry me, especially if Clark doesnt get his 6th year. DT depth is lacking. If Brown makes this a top 10 unit he deserves another raise
January 13th, 2017 at 12:56 PM ^
I find your lack of faith in Dr. Blitz disturbing.
January 13th, 2017 at 2:29 PM ^
just the opposite. If Durkin or another lesser DC were around I would be extremely concerned.
January 13th, 2017 at 12:59 PM ^
January 13th, 2017 at 1:13 PM ^
Sixth years are nebulous but if Ed Davis suited up in 2016, Clark should get a shot in 2017. Is it NCAA or B1G that determines it?
January 13th, 2017 at 1:28 PM ^
NCAA.
January 13th, 2017 at 1:16 PM ^
Sure. The cutoff for games played in a season when applying for a 6th year is 30%. This season Clark appeared in 4/13 games, which is 30.7%. I think he'll be back and you'd imagine, especially after Ed Davis somehow got a 6th year, that he will be. I don't think it's a guarantee though.
January 13th, 2017 at 1:26 PM ^
January 13th, 2017 at 2:12 PM ^
This is incorrect. The NCAA makes the determination on a player's appeal for a 6th year of eligibility, not the Big Ten. If each individual conference made their own decisions with inconsistent criterias, a ton of problems would arise.
This link talks about the NCAA bylaws regarding appeals for a 6th year of eligibility: https://borderingonwisdom.wordpress.com/2016/06/23/ncaa-6th-year-of-eli…. Ironically enough, the relevant bit posted below is from a story about Ed Davis' appeal last year.
"That means two seasons ended by injury, and the player in question must be injured in the first half of the season and not participate in more than 30% of the season or three games, whichever is greater."
January 13th, 2017 at 3:14 PM ^
Was he injured in 2012 when he redshirted? That's the $64,000 question.
January 13th, 2017 at 1:48 PM ^
Even if he gets his 6th year, there's no guarantee how effective he'll be. it's not like he had an upper body problem, it was his knee. He plays a position where quickness, speed and burst are key. I'm not sure why Chesson wasn't as effective this year, but my amateur guess is the knee injury played a big part. The old rule of thumb was a player can come back from a knee injury in one year but it usually takes longer until they are back to pre-injury form.
In terms of forecasting the 2017 season, I put Clark in with Newsome: it'd be great if they are back, but I'm not planning on it and if they are back, the jury will be out on how quickly they can get back to pre-injury levels of play.
January 13th, 2017 at 1:53 PM ^
I would think Clark would be ready to go quite a bit earlier than Newsome. Clark's injury was a "routine" ACL tear from all indications, whereas Newsome's injury was more significant and required an approximately month-long hospital stay following surgery.
January 14th, 2017 at 1:01 AM ^
will CERTAINLY be able to play before Newsome, but the point is valid that he may not be 100% so how far under that remains to be seen. Reconstructed ACLs heal just fine, often stronger than the original, but the ligament isn't the problem. The challenge is getting all the quickness, burst, speed and movement out of a knee that undergoes surgery, swelling, inactivity, etc.
January 13th, 2017 at 4:11 PM ^
The old rule of thumb is just that: old. Guys come back in 6 months from ACL nowadays. He'll have all summer and fall camp to get back to game speed. Provided there were no complications or setbacks, it's pretty reasonable to expect him to be a contributer as long as the NCAA cooperates.
January 13th, 2017 at 2:07 PM ^
the ncaa appears to delight in getting things wrong 99% of the time. so there's definitely a way.
January 13th, 2017 at 4:16 PM ^
CB is like RB where you either have it or don't. Talent trumps experience there for the most part, and the guys penciled in all got at least some experience last year.
DL is scary, but if Michigan dodges the injury bullet, we should be fine. Most teams would kill for our starting 4 and Gary has enough positional flexibility to cover up the thin DT depth a little. I'm sure we'll get gashed when we get stuck with unfavorable matchups on occasion, but there was pretty much nowhere to go from last year's line other than down anyway. Between Mattison coaching up the back-ups and Brown scheming around any gaps, I feel pretty good about it not being a major issue. I agree with Brian that we'll likely go from elite to just very good.
January 13th, 2017 at 4:57 PM ^
January 13th, 2017 at 12:52 PM ^
Dear Tufele and Solomon.
Instant playing time at a school much better than all your alternatives.
Much better D-Line coaching than all your alternatives.
Please come here.
January 13th, 2017 at 12:58 PM ^
January 13th, 2017 at 1:35 PM ^
We never lost Harris because we never had Harris.
January 13th, 2017 at 12:59 PM ^
I was thinking this exact same thing while reading the DL portion of this post.
If the coaching staff needs any point of reference for playing time just point at Hand's situation at Bama. (in Solomon's case of course)
Go to Bama and sit for 2 years, be a secondary player in year 3 and finally start in year 4. Or come to Michigan and be part of the rotation year 1 and an almost guaranteed starter in year 2.
SOLD!!
January 13th, 2017 at 1:09 PM ^
Alabama has been decimated on the line the last 2 years. They need bodies. Solomon will be in the rotation immediately no matter where he goes.
January 13th, 2017 at 12:55 PM ^
"someone please wrap the DL starters in cotton until fall.."
January 13th, 2017 at 12:57 PM ^
January 13th, 2017 at 12:57 PM ^
I think we're going to miss Hill more than we appreciate- both for his 45-year-old-looking self, but also his great open-field tackling and noted ability to not set himself on fire.
January 13th, 2017 at 12:57 PM ^
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January 13th, 2017 at 12:59 PM ^
What's the word on the street regarding David Long and Lavert Hill at cornerback? I know they were both highly touted guys coming in. Hill saw a handful of snaps this season and Long even less but I'm not going to ding them too much for that since the seniors in front of them were too good to keep off the field. I remember Jourdan Lewis said the incoming freshmen were better than him, but there's the whole maxim of 'believe have of the good stuff you hear about practice and all of the bad stuff' - granted, there isn't any bad stuff per se here.
January 13th, 2017 at 1:12 PM ^
I'm pretty sure Long got hurt during the season and the staff decided it was worth holding him out for a medical redshirt. I'm not sure his lack of playing time was indicitive of his progress or lack there of.
January 13th, 2017 at 1:14 PM ^
January 13th, 2017 at 1:04 PM ^
but would love for him to avoid anything even bearing the resemblence of targeting. He was ejected once and had at least another 1-2 no-calls which could easily have gone the other way. I don't know if that was just bad luck or what, but gotta be careful out there.
January 13th, 2017 at 1:15 PM ^
January 13th, 2017 at 1:31 PM ^
I wouldn't be surprised to see Bush Jr. in a role similar to Peppers. Bush is FAST. He's more close to a Peppers role than a classic LB in physical attributes and abilities, 6ft, ~210, good instincts, aggressive and seeks contact.
January 13th, 2017 at 5:01 PM ^
Granted the other team's players don't do front flips that freakishly coincide with their heads ending up where Bush dives prior to said flip.
January 13th, 2017 at 1:04 PM ^
Projection: Defense finishes NUMBER ONE AGAIN!
January 13th, 2017 at 1:12 PM ^
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January 13th, 2017 at 6:15 PM ^
He should get it, but NCAA...
January 13th, 2017 at 1:12 PM ^
Those first 6.....just........wow
January 13th, 2017 at 1:14 PM ^
The more and more I think that Gary is going to Play DT at least 50 per cent of the time. While Dwumfor can (hopefully) be a space eaating, take on blocks NT when he's spelling Mone, It might be alot to ask him to do the same with Hurst. Gotta think that Gary is going to play passing downs at least on the inside, with the high probability of a few starts in the case of an injury.
Only thing that could prevent it is Tufele or Solomon going ham and providing good depth from the get-go.
Also: Kinnel, Bush, Kemp, and Long are my predictions for players who join the ranks of the recently departed to become anchors for this defense.
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