turnovers
preview 2016

Preview 2016: Heuristics And Stupid Prediction Comment Count

Brian

Previously: Podcast 8.0. The Story. Quarterback. Running Back. Wide Receiver. Tight End And Friends. Offensive Line. Defensive End. Defensive Tackle. Linebacker. Cornerback. Safety. Special Teams. 5Q5A: Offense. 5Q5A: Defense.

Heuristicland

Turnover Margin

NotreDame-Rees-fumble-vs.-Michigan[1]

The theory of turnover margin: it is pretty random. Teams that find themselves at one end or the other at the end of the year are likely to rebound towards the average. So teams towards the top will tend to be overrated and vice versa. Nonrandom factors to evaluate: quarterback experience, quarterback pressure applied and received, and odd running backs like Mike Hart who just don't fumble.

Year Margin Int + Fumb + Sacks + Int - Fumb - Sacks -
2007 0.15 (41st) 14 15 2.46(33rd) 14 13 2.17 (67th)
2008 -.83 (104th) 9 11 2.42(33rd) 12 18 1.83 (57th)
2009 -1.00 (115th) 11 5 1.83(68th) 15 13 2.33 (83rd)
2010 -0.77(109th) 12 7 1.38(98th) 15 14 0.85(10th)
2011 +0.54 (25th) 9 20 2.31 (29th) 16 6 1.38 (33rd)
2012 -0.69 (99th) 7 11 1.69 (69th) 19 8 1.38 (28th)
2013 +0.38(33rd) 17 9 1.9 (64th) 13 8 2.77 (109th)
2014 -1.33 (124th) 5 5 2.4 (49th) 18 8 2.2 (63rd)
2015 -0.31 (92nd) 10 2 2.5 (32nd) 10 6 1.4 (28th)

2015 was nothing like the other new-coach uptick in recent history. Michigan recovered and absurdly low 2 fumbles in 2015; Brady Hoke's first team hopped on 20. With very similar pass rush numbers that's just damned bad luck.

With De'Veon Smith back fumbles lost should remain low. Interceptions are an open question with a new QB and new left tackle. Takeaways should increase as Michigan moves to more zone, specifically sneaky disguised zones, and because of dumb luck on the fumbles. I'd be surprised if this doesn't end up in the top 30, except I'm never surprised by turnover numbers since they're so low sample.

Position Switch Starters

Jibreel Black Ohio State v Michigan 8THB4vo8SwAl[1]

Theory of position switches: if you are starting or considering starting a guy who was playing somewhere else a year ago, that position is in trouble. There are degrees of this. When Notre Dame moved Travis Thomas, a useful backup at tailback, to linebacker and then declared him a starter, there was no way that could end well. Wisconsin's flip of LB Travis Beckum to tight end was less ominous because Wisconsin had a solid linebacking corps and Beckum hadn't established himself on that side of the ball. Michigan flipping Prescott Burgess from SLB to WLB or PSU moving Dan Connor inside don't register here: we're talking major moves that indicate a serious lack somewhere.

The dossier:

Chris Wormley to three-tech. Half the time he'll be playing SDE and he's already displayed an ability to play the spot. Concern level: zero.

Maurice Hurst to three-tech. His best spot. Concern level: zero.

Mason Cole to center. Also his best spot. Concern level: zero.

Jabrill Peppers to SAM. This is mostly a relabeling of his previous position and an acknowledgement of modern football. Concern level: zero.

Taco Charlton and Chase Winovich to WDE. Charlton actually moved their last year and got a few starts in. I'm not concerned about that. Winovich as a position-switch top backup who will see time is less than ideal. There have been some reports that he gets edged fairly routinely. But he is the backup. Concern level: slight.

And that's it. This is the fewest number of significant moves in the history of this preview series. It's basically Winovich, the end.

An Embarrassing Prediction, No Doubt

Worst Case Barring Extreme Injury Scenarios

There aren't many games on the schedule that will be single digit spreads for Michigan. They're favored at MSU and Iowa and only a significant dog at Ohio State; while they could stub their toe against PSU or Wisconsin both of those teams are taking new QBs on the road behind shaky offensive lines. Indiana looms because #CHAOSTEAM, but after seeing last night I'm guessing their offense takes a big step back.

They could lose the three big road games. 9-3.

Best Case

Michigan has more talent than anyone they face. Only Ohio State can argue otherwise, and they've got to replace a zillion starters. If they slip up 12-0 feels way more likely than it should.

Final Verdict

This team will be a national championship contender. Michigan is stacked everywhere except OL, LB, and QB. Those slots project to be average-ish, not season-ending debacles. Meanwhile, the schedule…

OOC
9/3 Hawaii Must win
9/10 Central Florida Must win
9/17 Colorado Must win
Conference
9/24 Penn State Must win
10/1 Wisconsin Must win
10/8 @ Rutgers Must win
10/22 Illinois Must win
10/29 @ MSU Lean to win
11/5 Maryland Must win
11/12 @ Iowa Lean to win
11/19 Indiana Must win
11/26 @ Ohio State Tossup
Absent:

Northwestern, Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska

…is super pliable.

Here's where I talk about combinatorial mathematics and how it's impossible to predict 12-0 seriously. Let's assume 3-0 in the nonconference. If Michigan has a 90% chance to win every conference game, the chance they go undefeated is 39%. Michigan does not have a 90% chance to win every conference game. There's literally no team in the country you should ever predict goes 12-0. Connelly's S&P rankings think that no team is even 50% likely to go 11-1.

This is why it's stupid to predict 12-0. I've never done it and never will, probably. Predicting 12-0 is an act of bravado not rooted in facts.

12-0.

Comments

spigmoni

September 2nd, 2016 at 3:32 PM ^

LOVE IT.  This really is the year.  IF not this year, we won't have the stars aligned for a little while.  LOVE this year's group of seniors, they've endured a lot.  We're going to go to the playoff.  lets do this.

 

GO BLUE

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MGoPoints: 1248

UMFanInFlorida

September 2nd, 2016 at 3:40 PM ^

This is why it's stupid to predict 12-0. I've never done it and never will, probably. Predicting 12-0 is an act of bravado not rooted in facts.

That's sound logic, just like 100% agreement with Kenpom.

Joined: 10/20/2012

MGoPoints: 2277

UMfan21

September 2nd, 2016 at 3:55 PM ^

Why?  Why must Brian tempt the angry football hating gods with this prediction?  I only pray that our sacrifices of LTT and Ahmir MItchell are enough to get us to 12-0 without a vengeful god.

Joined: 09/28/2009

MGoPoints: 51231

allintime23

September 2nd, 2016 at 3:58 PM ^

Great stuff as usual. I'm going with 11-1 and the loss being at Iowa. It's important that state doesn't beat OSU though. That killed us last year, along with the death of the D line before "the game." The best part about losing to Iowa is that we play them a agin and beat them. A few weeks later we beat bama and then lose to Clemson. Always so close to a dream, only to fall back to earth. It's going to be a great season, Go Blue Forever.

Joined: 09/21/2009

MGoPoints: 15225

Go_Blue2

September 2nd, 2016 at 3:59 PM ^

I can't start a thread but I just heard from an electrical contractor that the Pistons are moving to downtown Detroit and are sharing the new arena with the Red Wings. FINALLY!!! This is going to be great for the city.

Joined: 08/26/2014

MGoPoints: 256

BlueFront89

September 2nd, 2016 at 4:00 PM ^

It felt like your birthrite to root for an M team that had a legitimate chance to win the B1G and go to the Rose Bowl and finish in the top 5 and compete for a NC. Then the past decade erased that assumption. Now, with Harbaugh at the helm, the expectations are back and it feels like the days of old. A 12-0 prediction takes balls and an optimistic point of view at the least, but God Damnit, we have suffered long enough. Harbaugh has us back to relevance at the highest level and despite what the Buckeyes and Spartees and SEC douchebags say about us, this is a roster and staff that can pull it off. 12-0 and a season for the ages sounds good to me. All we have to do now is go or and fulfill our destiny. Go Blue!

Joined: 03/21/2014

MGoPoints: 1320

SC Wolverine

September 2nd, 2016 at 4:02 PM ^

Glad to see that somebody has a little spirit.  There is every reason to think this is a great team.  And it's a season when MSU and tOSU should be a bit down (not actually down, just a bit).  We should play in the National Title Game.  Which will be a crap shoot, so can't be predicted.

Joined: 08/18/2010

MGoPoints: 7795

BlueHenBlue

September 2nd, 2016 at 4:14 PM ^

12-0? YES

Other prognosticators might discount the road schedule, but I see it as an advantage. MSU did fine facing us and OSU on the road. There were too many College Gamedays last year where the home team lost. Being on the road means being business-like and not having to deal with the pomp and circumstance of hosting big games.



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bronxblue

September 2nd, 2016 at 4:45 PM ^

11-1.  They'll lose some weird game, probably to like Iowa, in which they throw 4 picks, lose 2 fumbles, and the Hakweyes win a game like UT against App St. where they win in OT.  Or more likely, OSU puts it all together by the end of the year, pull out all the stops, and Mike Weber goes for like 150 yards because UM has an injury to two LBs.  But even worst case scenario, this is a great team.

Joined: 11/22/2008

MGoPoints: 171843

Johnny10er

September 2nd, 2016 at 4:46 PM ^

Yes.
I came to the realization today: this is the first time in a VERY LONG TIME, that this year, we will be lucky if our team can exceed our expectations, not just meet them.
As much as we wanted championships out of the football team, we couldn't expect them. Maybe Hoke year 2. But not really. It was all still just hope.
We should be EXPECTING a B1G this year.
We should EXPECT losing one game, max.
We weren't expecting much the last 7 years. It was all spit on the hand and a prayer.
This.
This is the year we can expect 9 road graders on the O line, 4 ready for a pass, two in the back ready to run.
This is the year we can expect an entire defense to water board an opponent.
We can expect a punt to never fall and roll.
We can expect running backs to find holes and power bomb the secondary.
There may be teams with a better this, or a better that. Great backs, great quarter backs.
But only one team...



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Alumnus93

September 2nd, 2016 at 5:06 PM ^

bravo, I say to you Brian.....bravo.... takes bollocks to predict 12-0.... however coming from someone like yourself whose opinion many value, I do think this indirectly creates an actual confidence effect on the players...after all, they are students who interact withany who read this popular blog. I am very happy about this because, a prediction of 12-0 actually may affect the future, the way we want it, just like it did with the Brandon email parade.

Joined: 09/10/2009

MGoPoints: 9684

Muttley

September 2nd, 2016 at 7:07 PM ^

for everyone assume IID (independent and identically distributed) and don't allow for error in the likelhoods.  Ex post, some of these teams will be better than we now think (and some will be worse).

Someone goes 12-0 just about every year, so it's reasonable to expect one or two teams to pull it off.  Why not Michigan?

Joined: 07/07/2009

MGoPoints: -73245

stephenrjking

September 2nd, 2016 at 5:35 PM ^

I'm... shocked. At this prediction. Unprecedented.

It's also possible. Really, really possible.

I think, even in the best case, a loss is likely somewhere. Only an unstoppable behemoth every threatens to go undefeated, and even a number of unstoppable behemoths in Tuscaloosa have tripped up here and there. 

I... can't... 

11-1.

But maybe Brian is right.

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