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The Most Uniquely Unsatisfying Sporting Experience In The World Comment Count

Brian January 2nd, 2019 at 11:18 AM

12/29/2018 – Michigan 15, Florida 41 – 10-3, 7-1 Big Ten

I probably shouldn't have started the season with a dissertation on the Black Pit of Negative Expectations, because now what? I'm sure I've repeated myself in this space quite a bit, but I feel like I'm completely out of reactions to games that aren't so much deflating as imploding. I've talked about the Black Pit, mattresses, message boards, and Hell over little more than a calendar year. When I start writing something usually there's a kernel of something I've been thinking about to expand upon. Not so much right now.

This is mostly because I stopped thinking about Michigan's bowl game during the game. Like many people, some of them in pads and a helmet. Everyone knew that Michigan's season ended with the debacle in Columbus. This add-on exhibition was less an opportunity to accomplish something than an unwelcome reminder of college football's existence.

[After the JUMP: a humorous name for one's billy-berries]

I dunno, man. There's been one season that ended well during the existence of this blog, and that was the fool's gold 2011 season when a lurching .500 Ohio State team under Luke Fickell nearly beat Michigan with a freshman Braxton Miller and then Michigan won the Sugar Bowl with approximately three yards of total offense.

Every other season has featured a loss to Ohio State and usually a bowl dorf. Even when Michigan is legitimately good the season ends in a kick to the ol' yimble-yamble. This year's pratfall was exquisitely designed to turn you into a nihilist: first the 700-yard game by OSU, then the team Michigan always beats turns them into leather and bones.

It wears on you. It wears worse when Michigan has literally replicated Michigan State's in-stadium experience and games are the same fucking Buick commercial repeated 15 times with one play in between.

--------------------------------

So: on the one hand this was a game in which Michigan's defense didn't have Rashan Gary, Aubrey Solomon, Devin Bush, Kwity Paye, and Devin Gil for most of the game, the former three for the whole of it. Jordan Glasgow played inside linebacker for a half. Those who did play didn't seem to care very much, which is a thing that happens. A deflated Georgia just got trucked by a Texas team that didn't seem on their level all season.

On the other, Michigan had 50 seconds and two timeouts on the clock, ran for three yards, and called timeout with under 20 seconds on the clock. Michigan's buffoonery before the half isn't a motivation issue. It's something that's plagued Michigan since Harbaugh's arrival. There is no tempo package, in 2018. Down 17 with the end of the third quarter approaching Michigan was still huddling and snapping the ball with under five seconds on the game clock. They had a ten-play, five-minute drive on which the average play stripped 31.4 seconds off the clock. At the end of it they were still down two touchdowns.

Michigan is 124th in S&P+'s pace metric, and the surprising bit of that is that they're not dead last. This is year four. In year four you've got a pretty good idea of what the final product is going to look like. This isn't a bug for Harbaugh, it's a feature.

The last two years Michigan has seemingly scrapped their preseason plan a few games in. There's a ton of coaching turnover, with guys coming in for one year and then bailing. Recruiting has gone in fits and starts; even this year when Michigan's class is the best in the league they still had some baffling in-state failures seemingly brought about by disorganization. The pace of play also speaks to that disorganization.

All of this is probably permanent, and it'll stop Michigan from being an actual power. There will be a breakthrough at some point… probably. I hope I'll be able to appreciate it; I wonder if the whole thing where I look dead-eyed upon another set of hopes going up in the same flames may mute any response I might have to actually winning any damn thing:

The flaw in BPONE operations is of course the impossibility of mining any enjoyment out of your experience. BPONE sufferers assume a football game is a negative emotional event and spread those negative emotions out more broadly. Only if the team should actually come back and win will any regret be felt, and pffffffffft. I'm in the pit, baby! I know for a stone cold fact that a punt snap will somehow lodge itself in the facemask of the punter. I feel it in my bones that the one time we jump a route in this game the ensuing interception will bang off the defensive back's hands and lodge itself in the facemask of the opposition 50 yards downfield.

For now: relief that I don't have to think about this nearly as much for seven months. Basketball school: activate. 

Comments

I Like Burgers

January 2nd, 2019 at 11:42 AM ^

Pretty much sums it up: the bugs aren’t bugs, but features. And because of that, 10-11 wins a year and a place in a NY6 seems to be the ceiling for Harbaugh’s Wolverines.

Joined: 10/06/2012

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Honk if Ufer M…

January 5th, 2019 at 2:51 PM ^

He doesn't feel his limit because he's an idiot and he's reached his limit because he's an idiot. However if we keep recruiting well the players might occasionally overcome the coaching and exceed his limit on their own, despite him. 

Joined: 02/22/2015

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I Like Burgers

January 2nd, 2019 at 12:04 PM ^

I'm not sure if Harbaugh is what the NFL really wants these days.  They are looking for innovative offensive minds -- the next Sean McVay.  That's not Harbaugh.

Although they'll still hire retreads like Gruden, flirt with people like Brian Kelly, and then rehire half of the guys that were just fired, so who knows.

Joined: 10/06/2012

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ESNY

January 2nd, 2019 at 2:02 PM ^

I think there are only a few teams that are risky enough to hire a super young, unproven assistants.  NFL teams are the most conservative and would rather hire a proven commodity, even if you are artificially lowering the ceiling that go all-in and risk a big bust.  That is why Jeff Fisher got so many jobs, why Vance Joseph and Adam Gase are being interviewed for new jobs less than 24 hours for being fired for utterly failing at their last job and why an NFL announcer that has been out of a game for a decade got $100M.

Joined: 11/06/2008

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TrueBlue2003

January 2nd, 2019 at 5:35 PM ^

This couldn't be more wrong. He either realizes his involvement in the offense is the problem and fixes it because he definitely wants to win at Michigan, or he's not humble enough to come to that conclusion and keeps banging his head against the wall thinking that's the way to win until he gets fired.

I have hope that it's the former.

There is no way that he knows what the problem is, and leaves for the NFL in spite of that, because a pretty easy fix if you recognize the problem.

Joined: 01/05/2010

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allezbleu

January 2nd, 2019 at 11:44 AM ^

"All of this is probably permanent, and it'll stop Michigan from being an actual power."

Those are damning words. And as much as I've been in denial, most likely true...

...Unless we luck into an offensive coordinator that fundamentally changes how Harbaugh thinks about offense.

Joined: 11/02/2008

MGoPoints: 3154

mjv

January 2nd, 2019 at 12:14 PM ^

Urban Meyer has the third highest career winning percentage in college football history.  And he just left OSU.  This will adjust the balance of power from wildly in favor of OSU to closer to even at worst.

Beyond OSU, we will have an even rivalry with ND and favorable balance with PSU and the rest of the schedule (including MSU) will be wildly in our favor.  

Everyone has somehow grown to expect that 2-3 teams dominating college football is a normal situation.  This isn't going to last.  Georgia will provide a meaningful foil to Saban/Alabama in the SEC.  OSU without Meyer isn't going to win at the same rate they have been.  Clemson is well positioned with the rest of the ACC (most notably FSU) in complete disarray.  But dynasties don't last forever.  USC has collapsed and looks lost, but they looked invincible under Carroll.  Nebraska owned the 1990s under Osborne, but following his retirement after 1997, they ended the 2002 season unranked and have only been ranked 6 times at the end of the last 17 seasons since (with the highest ranking being 19th).  

Joined: 06/30/2008

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YaterSalad

January 2nd, 2019 at 12:36 PM ^

I tend to agree with this take because it takes into account historical fact.  Right now we do have a reasonably favorable balance vs the B1G "powers" and rivals.  In addition, the 4 year record of Harbaugh stands pretty close to that of Saban at Bama or Dabo at Clemson before they took the leap.  This only serves to illustrate the natural ebb and flow of college football.  

But ... It doesn't negate the fact that U of M needs to make changes in order to take full advantage of this opportunity.  On offense, I think the point about the offensive brain trust preventing us from playing hurry-up and reverting to the lizard brain / throw out the playbook is a fair one.  On defense, Dr Sack needs to mix in some improvements with zone coverage to keep from getting torched by speedy drags / crosses.  I am hoping this staff, of any, can accomplish this based on their previous track records.  

Joined: 03/29/2010

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colomon1988

January 2nd, 2019 at 1:45 PM ^

I don't disagree that Michigan needs to make changes.  If you'll remember last year, we were saying the same thing about the offensive line coaching and how Harbaugh wasn't talking about fixing the problem, and then WHAM.  Both o-line coaches gone and the new hire has totally turned around the line.

I just don't get the assumption that the Harbaugh year 4 team must represent basically the team he will give us in every future year.  Does he lose the ability to make radical changes or something?  And even without those, right now there's every reason to think the offense will be noticeably better next year, with a good returning QB and the second year of Warinner coaching o-line.  

Joined: 05/28/2015

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UMxWolverines

January 2nd, 2019 at 1:21 PM ^

You also can't bank on Wisconsin being as bad as they are this year as well as MSU. PSU might get sick of Franklin at some point. Nebraska and Frost could rise up. Teams dominating college football might change, but we're not gonna be one of those teams without offensive changes.  

Joined: 03/01/2009

MGoPoints: 65474

yossarians tree

January 2nd, 2019 at 2:45 PM ^

I love college football but right now it is just fucking boring and anti-climactic. Everyone pretty much knows who is going to be in the finals before the season even starts. The stockpiling of talent at Alabama and a handful of programs is destroying any sense of competitive balance. It is obvious to most that these programs are not playing by the same rules as many others. Also recruiting has become such a more exact science that few of the big recruits slip past these programs. Personally and more power to him but I can't wait until Saban hangs it up because I won't even be watching Bama-Clemson 4 (or whatever it is). Lots of Netflix to catch up on.

Joined: 08/19/2010

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MadMatt

January 2nd, 2019 at 3:31 PM ^

This a thousand times. We've assumed that teams as dominant as OSU in the B1G and Alabama nationally are the norm. They're not. To do what they have done takes a generational talent as the head coach, a oodles of good luck. Harbaugh has issues we've identified as thousand times over. He'll address them, and the Schmuckeyes' luck will run out.

Joined: 11/06/2013

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TrueBlue2003

January 2nd, 2019 at 6:52 PM ^

But second tier teams don't rise to the top just because dynasties fall.  Second tier teams must rise to the top with good recruiting and exceptional coaching like Bama did by hiring Saban, Clemson did by recruiting well and hiring excellent coordinators (similar blueprint to Franklin's success at PSU), ND has done with Brian Kelly, Texas is doing with Tom Herman, etc.

Sure, OSU is probably not going to dominate like they did under Meyer, and that mean mean a couple conference titles by default but Michigan isn't going to get better and compete for national titles unless they improve the coaching staff.  They already recruit well enough (on the level of OU and Clemson), they just need better, consistent offensive coaching.

Joined: 01/05/2010

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TrueBlue2003

January 2nd, 2019 at 5:42 PM ^

That can't be how it works.  Harbaugh needs to realize this himself.  I think he's pragmatic enough to eventually come to the conclusion that anyone else with eyeballs can see.

And then he has to hire the right OC with that pitch: he needs to say, I want you to do your thing and lead the offense. 

No one good is going to come in needing to change JH's mind about anything.  Imagine that interview.  OC asks Harbaugh what he wants to do with the offense, Harbaugh starts talking about all the FBs and TEs being footbawww players and that he's opposed to tempo, OC disagrees with a lot of it, but decides to take the job because...he might change Jim Harbaugh's mind?  No way.

Joined: 01/05/2010

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JFW

January 2nd, 2019 at 11:45 AM ^

I suppose I'm a touch more sanguine. 

We are what we are at this point. A good, but not great or elite, team. I think Harbaugh is a good coach, and I think we still have some upside to pursue, but I don't think we will ever be a 'Bama or a Clemson with years of strung together dominance. I'm okay with that. 

I think we'll be in the hunt, and knocking on the door often. I think we have a shot at maybe starting to beat OSU 30 to maybe even 50% of the time. We might get in the playoffs from time to time, but don't know if we will go far. 

This team reminds me alot of the teams I watched in the early 90's. I enjoyed them. I'll enjoy this. 

If we can continue progress against MSU, and make progress against OSU, and have a program that doesn't have scandals, and that continues to put educated young men out into the world, I'll be very happy. It reminds me of what I experienced as an undergrad 91-96. It beats the living shyte out of the previous 7 years. 

Joined: 10/20/2010

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wolverine1987

January 2nd, 2019 at 11:53 AM ^

Yep. We have never, apart from one year in the last 40 ('97) been an elite program, defined here as Bama/Clemson/recent OSU elite. We have been (apart from RR/Hoke) a good, top 20 program that loses 2-3 games a year and has good behavior and academics. That's what we are. I'm ok with that, especially if we can go .500 going forward against OSU.

Joined: 07/07/2008

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mGrowOld

January 2nd, 2019 at 1:13 PM ^

Not sure about that.  

2006 we were ranked #2 in the country until we lost to OSU

2016 we were ranked #2 in the country until we lost to Iowa and then OSU

2018 we were ranked #4 in the country until we lost to OSU

We have an OSU problem.  If we were beating them not only would national championships be possible recruiting for us would go way up and their's would go way down.

We have a huge OSU problem.  And it's getting worse, not better.

Joined: 10/04/2010

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Maison Bleue

January 2nd, 2019 at 2:06 PM ^

So even after Urban Meyer "retiring" the OSU problem is getting worse not better, how so? To me, it at least gives me hope that it will get better. Day cannot be on the same level as Urban as a recruiter and in-game coach and if he ends being even close to as good, then I will just assume OSU has made some kind of deal with the devil and not much you can do about that.

Joined: 11/30/2012

MGoPoints: 23298

ColeIsCorky

January 2nd, 2019 at 2:19 PM ^

This is 100% correct. 

I would say the vast majority of people believe in recruiting related success - Alabama is exactly that with success in recruiting translating to the field. And I am not making a coaching argument here at all, but you cannot deny that correlation with Alabama and even Ohio St.

I have heard Marcus Ray say multiple times in the past that guys from Ohio like Charles Woodson came to Michigan because of their success against OSU. Until that happens, we will continue to get good to great talent with a 5* kid here and there, but we will never be able to recruit at the level of OSU and for sure not Alabama. 

This is why coaching is so important as well. You need to out-coach your opponent who has greater overall talent in order to beat them, which in turn will help increase your talent pool. Michigan is a elite brand, and because of that they have the ability to potentially recruit at an elite level unlike a school like MSU. But just because you have an elite brand doesn't mean you pull in elite talent consistently across the roster - This requires putting a product out on the field that translates to success over your competitors despite talent level (unless you fork over the $$$ to recruit, which won't happen at Michigan).

And this is also exactly why I will never say that Harbaugh will never be able to win it all. All it takes is either a few wins over OSU or OSU all of a sudden hitting a lull, like it does with every school at some point in the history of football. Once either of those happens, Harbaugh should be able to start grabbing the Harrisons and Crouches of the world on top of the other talented kids that are already coming. Yes, we got Dax Hill and Charbonnet, but those are also different kids. They didn't come to Michigan because Michigan is all of a sudden turning into Alabama/OSU, they came for reasons that make sense to go to Michigan and not those other schools. 

All that being said, there is opportunity. It just hasn't been taken advantage of yet. And again, I am not making arguments for or against Harbaugh and his coaching staff's abilities, but I am merely adding to your point about having an "OSU" problem.

 

Joined: 11/15/2016

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TrueBlue2003

January 2nd, 2019 at 5:48 PM ^

But we just hired the most sought after coach in football and pay him what, top 3 money?  We've never done that before so you can't compare our frugal, incestuous past to the present.

M has the resources and now the willingness to pay to get to the top tier.  There's no reason M can't be where Oklahoma or Clemson is.  We already recruit on those levels.  Next step is improving the coaching (by hiring a good OC and handing over the keys).

Joined: 01/05/2010

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