same [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

The Most Uniquely Unsatisfying Sporting Experience In The World Comment Count

Brian January 2nd, 2019 at 11:18 AM

12/29/2018 – Michigan 15, Florida 41 – 10-3, 7-1 Big Ten

I probably shouldn't have started the season with a dissertation on the Black Pit of Negative Expectations, because now what? I'm sure I've repeated myself in this space quite a bit, but I feel like I'm completely out of reactions to games that aren't so much deflating as imploding. I've talked about the Black Pit, mattresses, message boards, and Hell over little more than a calendar year. When I start writing something usually there's a kernel of something I've been thinking about to expand upon. Not so much right now.

This is mostly because I stopped thinking about Michigan's bowl game during the game. Like many people, some of them in pads and a helmet. Everyone knew that Michigan's season ended with the debacle in Columbus. This add-on exhibition was less an opportunity to accomplish something than an unwelcome reminder of college football's existence.

[After the JUMP: a humorous name for one's billy-berries]

I dunno, man. There's been one season that ended well during the existence of this blog, and that was the fool's gold 2011 season when a lurching .500 Ohio State team under Luke Fickell nearly beat Michigan with a freshman Braxton Miller and then Michigan won the Sugar Bowl with approximately three yards of total offense.

Every other season has featured a loss to Ohio State and usually a bowl dorf. Even when Michigan is legitimately good the season ends in a kick to the ol' yimble-yamble. This year's pratfall was exquisitely designed to turn you into a nihilist: first the 700-yard game by OSU, then the team Michigan always beats turns them into leather and bones.

It wears on you. It wears worse when Michigan has literally replicated Michigan State's in-stadium experience and games are the same fucking Buick commercial repeated 15 times with one play in between.

--------------------------------

So: on the one hand this was a game in which Michigan's defense didn't have Rashan Gary, Aubrey Solomon, Devin Bush, Kwity Paye, and Devin Gil for most of the game, the former three for the whole of it. Jordan Glasgow played inside linebacker for a half. Those who did play didn't seem to care very much, which is a thing that happens. A deflated Georgia just got trucked by a Texas team that didn't seem on their level all season.

On the other, Michigan had 50 seconds and two timeouts on the clock, ran for three yards, and called timeout with under 20 seconds on the clock. Michigan's buffoonery before the half isn't a motivation issue. It's something that's plagued Michigan since Harbaugh's arrival. There is no tempo package, in 2018. Down 17 with the end of the third quarter approaching Michigan was still huddling and snapping the ball with under five seconds on the game clock. They had a ten-play, five-minute drive on which the average play stripped 31.4 seconds off the clock. At the end of it they were still down two touchdowns.

Michigan is 124th in S&P+'s pace metric, and the surprising bit of that is that they're not dead last. This is year four. In year four you've got a pretty good idea of what the final product is going to look like. This isn't a bug for Harbaugh, it's a feature.

The last two years Michigan has seemingly scrapped their preseason plan a few games in. There's a ton of coaching turnover, with guys coming in for one year and then bailing. Recruiting has gone in fits and starts; even this year when Michigan's class is the best in the league they still had some baffling in-state failures seemingly brought about by disorganization. The pace of play also speaks to that disorganization.

All of this is probably permanent, and it'll stop Michigan from being an actual power. There will be a breakthrough at some point… probably. I hope I'll be able to appreciate it; I wonder if the whole thing where I look dead-eyed upon another set of hopes going up in the same flames may mute any response I might have to actually winning any damn thing:

The flaw in BPONE operations is of course the impossibility of mining any enjoyment out of your experience. BPONE sufferers assume a football game is a negative emotional event and spread those negative emotions out more broadly. Only if the team should actually come back and win will any regret be felt, and pffffffffft. I'm in the pit, baby! I know for a stone cold fact that a punt snap will somehow lodge itself in the facemask of the punter. I feel it in my bones that the one time we jump a route in this game the ensuing interception will bang off the defensive back's hands and lodge itself in the facemask of the opposition 50 yards downfield.

For now: relief that I don't have to think about this nearly as much for seven months. Basketball school: activate. 

Comments

JFW

January 3rd, 2019 at 10:47 AM ^

I'd disagree with that. When we played PSU, MSU, Wisci, etc. these were all teams that were tough, and with the latter two on the road.  We've won big games. 

The fact that these teams went on to trouble afterward doesn't mean they weren't tough opponents when we played them. And We're still 4-1 against Florida, 2-1 in the Harbaugh era. 

PrincetonBlue

January 2nd, 2019 at 12:08 PM ^

In college football, it seems that for all fanbases other than Clemson/Alabama there only awaits BPONE.  If you look at what Georgia fans are saying, they seem to be in the same place mentally that we are.  Supposedly they are an elite program.  

Is it a reasonable expectation for us to become Clemson or Alabama?  Probably not.  So we should just not take college football very seriously.

ScooterTooter

January 2nd, 2019 at 12:08 PM ^

So what has changed from 2016 to 2018? Is it really just losing guys like Jedd Fisch and Wheatley?

I don't remember Michigan feeling this disorganized then. Mostly, things felt like they were on the right track. Even to your point about recruiting: Michigan cleaned up recruiting for 2017 that year in state, nabbing (I think) the top 7 guys. 

You guys watched a lot of Stanford and San Francisco prior to Harbaugh's hiring: Did the offense look like this? Were they incapable of running a two minute drill? Was it always slow? 

 

M-Dog

January 2nd, 2019 at 3:37 PM ^

His offenses ran well when everything was perfect and all the pieces were in place and absolutely in sync.

This is very hard to achieve in college though, as we know.

Remember this "Congratulations on the purchase of your new Harbaugh" article when he was first coming here?

https://www.sacbee.com/sports/nfl/san-francisco-49ers/article5187357.html

Your Harbaugh has been designed for offense and will require many high-end parts to run said offense. Yet his defense will be better than his offense. This paradox has not been explained.

 

DMill2782

January 2nd, 2019 at 12:08 PM ^

Harbaugh couldn't win the Pac-12 with a great o-line, Stepfan Taylor, Vic Fangio as DC, and the best QB in the country. 

Why does any Michigan fan believe he'll ever win the Big 10? 

DMill2782

January 2nd, 2019 at 1:33 PM ^

I'm referring to 2010 when Fangio was his DC. That was Stanford's best opportunity. Against Oregon, they jump out to a 21-3 lead. They go into halftime up 31-24. What do they do in the 2nd half? In spectacular Harbaugh fashion, they get outscored 28-0 and lose 52-31. Oregon ends up conference champs. 

jbrandimore

January 2nd, 2019 at 12:23 PM ^

One thing about the Harbaugh era that I completely misread was I would have argued in 2015 on his hiring through the entire 2015 season at Michigan that his career showed that he was willing to adapt his offensive approach to the skill sets of his roster (Kap for Smith, blocky catchy types at Stanford, breaking a lot of tendencies in the 2015 season at Michigan).

However the last three years has proven me wrong. He's not willing to adapt to the opponent, the score in the game or his roster. I don't mind having fullbacks on the roster and on the field, but when we used the fullbacks in previous seasons it was a bit of a surprise for the opponent and now if you take an honest look at the offense and asked yourself, "what is Michigan's bread and butter play?" the only answer is a Ben Mason rush for 1 yard (hopefully).

Not only are we one of the few schools to regularly use a fullback, we have to be the only school where the defense is going to key on the fullback 100% of the time as everyone knows that fullback is never the lead blocker - he's going to get the ball.

I do wonder if losing that OSU game in 2016 broke JHs spirit. He's not the same guy at all.

 

CoverZero

January 2nd, 2019 at 12:23 PM ^

You nailed it.  I wanted to love Coach Harbaugh, but his flaws and stubbornness are choking the program”s ability to get to the next level and to be a true power. 

People try to compare JH to Bo based on the “conversative” play and his losses in big games. Well I’m here to tell you that analogy is  fallacious. 

Bo was much more innovative and in tune with the progression of the game. He changed his offense over the years as college football wa evolving. Also Bo never got blown out in big games. 

Perhaps it’s time for Michigan to start looking at other options beyond JH. 

morg2636

January 2nd, 2019 at 12:26 PM ^

I just don't think you are giving Harbaugh enough credit.  Harbaugh is a smart guy.  He knows when something is broken. He fixed the defense with DB.  He fixed the special teams and kicking game.  I am pretty sure you are going to see a new OC pretty soon because a certain someone on here has already dropped a few hints.  One of these years the stars are going to align and Harbaugh is going to get everything right. 

KBLOW

January 2nd, 2019 at 1:03 PM ^

I don't give JH that much credit for being a smart guy. At least not anymore.  A smart guy would've come into the OSU game with a much better game plan and then would've been able to make adjustments on the fly. "One of these years" is the problem.  It needs to be next year. 

M-Dog

January 2nd, 2019 at 2:23 PM ^

I'm not sure if it's that 100% cut and dried . . . but it's pretty damn close.

The unavoidable narrative if that happens is that Harbaugh is finished or on the edge of the hot seat.

Elite recruits hate uncertainty most of all.  They have too many options.  Recruiting will start spiraling.

If he loses like 2016, there is still a chance.  But if he loses like this year where his team is never really in it, it's going to be hard to paper over.

Bodogblog

January 2nd, 2019 at 12:27 PM ^

The buffonery at the end of half is dumbfounding, and huddling in the 3rd quarter awful. 

But. 

As I've proposed for much of the season, the pace is a choice.  In short: ND proved the tackles couldn't reliably pass pro, the OL could run block, the defense is awesome, so run the ball, don't turn it over at all costs, take minimal chances and get ~28 points on the board, don't get the QB killed, let the D win games. 

This won 10 straight. Even going to OSU, based on the film of both teams, this made sense.  Then OSU played out of its mind and Don Brown got owned. Couldn't have predicted either. 

How did the same thing happen against Florida?  Harbaugh thought OSU was a 1 game aberration. Remember even in the good times this year the defense got owned in the first quarter/half and then shut people down.  Harbaugh believed Brown would make adjustments and crush UF in the second half (in a presser he even noted "best at adjustments I've ever seen" or something to that effect).  Instead he continued to get owned.  

Hopefully Harbaugh learns the lesson that you have to try to score on every drive in today's game.  Moving the ball and pinning the opponent in their end isn't enough of a win today.  Breaking that mindset is the challenge.  And finding to OT's who can reliably pass pro. 

The defense is much more troubling.  A small problem which highlights my bigger concerns: why can't Don Brown see that J'Marick Woods is completely incapable of being a safety?  His angles are terrible and he does not in any way understand the concept of last line of defense. 

Tex_Ind_Blue

January 2nd, 2019 at 2:47 PM ^

If the learning from ND was that the OT's can't reliably pass protect, wouldn't one try to find different ways to implement a passing game rather than a seven step drop? Shouldn't the coaches try to maximize the passing opportunities by calling short throws, screens, dump offs, and myriad other options? Why should the only path from ND game lead to less passing and more running? 

Also how does weak pass protection lead to eating up most of the clock? Less number of plays in a game leads to higher contribution of each play to the final outcome. Shouldn't one try to run as many plays as one can to smooth out any variance? 

On the other hand, when a team is already down by 2+ scores, why still huddle? Why still waste the play clock without scoring? 

What're your thoughts? 

Hei2man

January 2nd, 2019 at 12:28 PM ^

Recruiting has gone in fits and starts; even this year when Michigan's class is the best in the league they still had some baffling in-state failures seemingly brought about by disorganization. The pace of play also speaks to that disorganization.

All of this is probably permanent, and it'll stop Michigan from being an actual power. 

This x1000.

Bodogblog

January 2nd, 2019 at 12:55 PM ^

This is a reach. 

You cannot note in the first half of a sentence that Michigan is the best in the league (one which contains Ohio State) and then generate any negative push by observing their failure with 2 in-state recruits.  Barnett seemed locked to MSU from the jump, and the Dobbs kid seemed to be someone the coaches liked less than other options at the position.  Maybe you count Logan Brown, but he was a Wisconsin kid from go. 

2015 recruiting can't be blamed on Harbaugh, that was a timing-of-hire thing. 2016 and 2017 classes were excellent.  2018 was poor by M standards, but a lot of that due to the staff taking kids they liked in spite of the services rather than a lot of plan B guys.  2019 was excellent.  

That's 3 out of 4 years excellent, per services, with one year TBD (it's all TBD of course). 

evenyoubrutus

January 2nd, 2019 at 1:04 PM ^

Exactly. No matter how good or bad Sparty is, we often will lose one or two instate targets to them for whatever reason, and we don't know how the coaches rated Dobbs. Remember when everyone was perplexed why they were so fixated on 3.5 star undersized linebacker Devin Bush over 5 star kids? This just seems like an overreaction exacerbated by other problems.

Bodogblog

January 2nd, 2019 at 1:27 PM ^

Unfortunately, I think it's a bit worse than an overreaction.  It's grasping to build a narrative. 

The post is brief, but what it does talk about notes one of two options: meaningless game so whatevs or loss that highlighted deep problems.  The primary deep problem is pace of play.  Everything else is a throw-in. 

"The last two years Michigan has seemingly scrapped their preseason plan a few games in. There's a ton of coaching turnover, with guys coming in for one year and then bailing. Recruiting has gone in fits and starts; even this year when Michigan's class is the best in the league they still had some baffling in-state failures seemingly brought about by disorganization. The pace of play also speaks to that disorganization."

Not sure what scrapping their preseason plan a few games in means: how do you know with certainty what that plan was?  Even if you do, did you see the ND game?  All passing plans were scrapped, rightly, because the tackles can't reliably pass protect.  Coaching turnover?  Come on, that's a hallmark of good programs.  Recruiting covered above.  Then back to pace of play. 

So that's what's not a bug, but a feature.  Pace of Play.  And if like me you believe that was a choice (as I outline in another comment under this post), then that's not much.  There's very little in this article for emo spawn.  It's getting a reaction because it allows those still hurting from the disastrous end of the season to get their pile on. 

PeteM

January 2nd, 2019 at 12:35 PM ^

I don't know if the take that the players didn't care about the game is accurate or not (they might just have gotten outplayed), but I find the level of fan/media disinterest in the Bowl game to be unfortunate.  If Saturday didn't matter because we were out of the playoff then last year's Wisconsin and Ohio State games didn't matter since we weren't getting to a playoff with losses to MSU and a blowout loss to Penn State.  Yes, this season was disappointing after the lead up to Ohio State, but this is still best run Michigan has had terms of win/losses over a 3-4 year period since the late 90s. 

In terms of where the program is, I think some of the critique is valid about the level of organization but I wonder if that's inevitable when a coaching staff so many changes.  Not making those changes may have avoided some recruiting misses, resulted in fewer transfers, but also would have meant having Drevno still coaching the offensive line.

I do think Harbaugh needs to look at offensive play calling.  Whether that means he calls playes without consulting with a sideline committee, the offensive coordinator does it without checking in or maybe Shea has some downs where he checks into a play at the line I don't know but I feel like the process works against us sometimes.  I also think that the current process may result in going for the safe option -- like in the 4th down call for a run up the gut early in the game against Florida which I saw coming and also saw coming up short.

 

M-Dog

January 2nd, 2019 at 12:41 PM ^

All of this is probably permanent, and it'll stop Michigan from being an actual power.

I'd be more inclined to just relax, smile and say "Well, that's just the way it is for Michigan", except that this is all so damn unnecessary.

What frustrates me about Jim Harbaugh is that he has everything he needs, right at his fingertips.  Michigan has the ingredients of an actual power.  This isn't Vanderbilt.  

His lack of meaningful success at this point is 100% self-inflicted.

He can recruit at the highest levels:  Recruits love his NFL connections, he's got the Michigan name and tradition and family atmosphere, being in the Big Ten East gives us share of mind in the talent-rich areas of NJ and DC/MD/VA, he plays in the Big House, with the coolest unis in college football, before the largest crowd in the country every single week, in the perennially highest-rated college town in America. 

Michigan is the winningest team in college football in both number of victories and winning percentage.   

And the Urban Meyer aberration is even over:

https://mgoblog.com/diaries/can-michigan-recruit-ohio-state%27s-level-without-urban-meyer-picture

He is in one of the "glamour divisions" of college football, the Big Ten East.  The Big Ten is challenging enough to be relevant, but not so challenging that it's not winnable.  He has a realistic shot at the CFP every single year.

He has a supportive, almost adoring, AD and fanbase and alumni and donors.

He has it all at his fingertips. 

The only thing holding him back is himself.

He won't let go and get an effective college-friendly offensive scheme and coordinator.  That is all he needs.

There is nothing that James Franklin did that he can't do. 

There is nothing that Ryan Day is going to do that he can't do.

There is no environment in college football other than Alabama that he can't replicate.  

He just has to want to.  That is all he needs to do.

Even Nick Saban, with all his wicked 5 star talent, adapted and changed his comfortable philosophy to keep up with where college football was going.  Alabama looks completely different today than it did even 5 years ago.  That was likely not a comfortable transition for Saban, but it was an effective transition.

There is no shame in getting some useful help.  

Why be so stubborn trying to prove everybody wrong?  Why is it worth the fuss?  Why not just start adapting and start winning the games that matter?

PeteM

January 2nd, 2019 at 1:03 PM ^

One obvious difference is that Meyer had a richer in-state recruiting territory (Ohio typically has more high level high school recruits than Michigan) and no real in-state competition.  Franklin is also in a better in-state situation, and is next door to New Jersey (where admittedly we've cleaned up).  I don't disagree that Harbaugh has some advantages, but to say he is in the same as Ryan Day isn't accurate.

M-Dog

January 2nd, 2019 at 1:20 PM ^

Harbaugh is not in the same situation as Urban Meyer.  But he is in the same situation as Ryan Day.

Urban Meyer was an aberration.  He wasn't getting it done with Ohio talent.  He was getting it done with 5 star Texas talent and Florida talent and so on.

Can Ryan Day keep that up?  Maybe.  But not likely given what we've seen already this recruiting year. 

Those 5 stars from the south and west were coming north to play for Urban Meyer, not Ohio State.  He was a two-time national championship legend before he even got there.

Ryan Day will likely regress back to the Tressel model of "build a wall around Ohio and fill in a select few specific spots with kids from Florida and the southwest".  Still very good mind you, but not better than everybody else in the entire freaking country except Alabama.

Look at the link in the comment.  The evidence is that we will hold our own, enough to be competitive recruiting-wise with Ohio State and Penn State.  The rest is up to coaching and scheme and development.

 

One Armed Bandit

January 2nd, 2019 at 1:27 PM ^

At the risk of sounding like a broken record with another hot take, I feel that it must be reiterated that the first thing JH has to do is determine there is a problem that is holding back the program. And, I can't stress this enough, HE has to determine it, not someone else. Even if that's his wife, his dad or anyone around him. He has to make that determination.

If he does, then he will adjust accordingly. If he feels all the team needs is another year getting better at what they're doing now, then the team will be in for the same issues and problems that have arose in the last few years. So, it's up to him, and him alone, to determine if there's anything wrong. Then the program can move forward or stay the course. And we as fans, alumni, well-wishers, etc, just have to deal with it.

I will say this, from now until next season, I can't believe a single thing that comes out of any reports about the team. The team can get rid of Pep, hire Oklahoma State's OC, JH can talk a good game about RPOs and more 4-wide sets, Brown can say that he spent 10 hours a day studying zone defenses. None of that matters until they actually show it in a game against an opponent that warrants the necessary change. Until then, it's just all talk. 

I love this team and will support it until my dying breath. But next season will be the first season in which I will have literally no expectations. If the team goes 7-5, so be it. 12-0, I'll be overjoyed. Anything in between, I should expect nothing more or less. It will be very freeing that way.

uminks

January 2nd, 2019 at 12:41 PM ^

The big difference is that we had a better overall defense in 2016. I liked Durkin's defense better. The more talented teams have learned to tear apart our gimmick defense. There is no way we should let FL score over 40 points or OSU score over 60 points. I'm sorry to say but we need both a new OC and DC.

Blau

January 2nd, 2019 at 12:44 PM ^

The worst part is I feel like we're wasting these great-to-really fucking great teams due to poor scouting and game planning. I just don't think its a talent issue or execution. I'd really like to know if we're to the team who beat the shit out of Wisc and PSU or the team at the end of the season getting smoked by OSU and Florida.

Moleskyn

January 2nd, 2019 at 4:32 PM ^

I agree with this. Obviously, all we have to go on is speculation since we don't know what the coaches are actually doing in their gameplanning, but it seems to me that they go into each game with a plan to try to dictate the pace and do what they want to do, regardless of what the defense throws at them.

Against lower-tier competition, that can work. But at some point, you have to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the opponent, and tailor your gameplan to exploit their weaknesses. Not saying this isn't happening, but when the offense comes out and runs up the gut against a stacked front, that doesn't instill confidence that the staff is trying to get the best matchups against the defense.

CoverZero

January 2nd, 2019 at 12:45 PM ^

Harbaugh is getting shredded right now on ESPN U radio.  After coaching a shitty game, apparently he gave a “drive-by” handshake to Mullen after the game which they are saying was classless.

Bodogblog

January 2nd, 2019 at 1:17 PM ^

This is a good place to put a reminder for the offseason that none of this means anything.  We just saw a coach who harbored a spouse abuser for nearly a decade be adulated for an entire season because he wins. 

If Harbaugh wins none of the negativity in the offseason you'll hear about him will matter.  If he doesn't win the negativity won't make it worse.  It does not matter in any way. 

Moleskyn

January 2nd, 2019 at 4:04 PM ^

This is correct. I haven't gone to look for the actual clip, but I remember seeing that in real time. I was so distracted by the Florida players acting like morons that I didn't even notice if Harbaugh gave Mullen a handshake. I thought he might have blown him off; which, would have been warranted given the behavior of Mullen's goons.

evenyoubrutus

January 2nd, 2019 at 1:00 PM ^

This is what I don't get: this is four consecutive coaches who seem to follow a similar pattern throughout the season. Usually one early loss, followed by perceived improvement and looking like a dominant Big Ten team, then a sudden late season slide and utter collapse. Year after year. How can that possibly be explained? The staff sure didn't look disorganized when we were pummeling Wisconsin and PSU, or out gaining MSU 4-1. The offense has a new bag of tricks every game, everything seems to work, and then we get to a late season game and they seem to have run out of ideas and NOTHING works. Like the Iowa game in 16, or the OSU game this year. It can't be blamed purely on increasing schedule difficulty either. It makes absolutely no sense.

mGrowOld

January 2nd, 2019 at 1:44 PM ^

I've thought about that too and I have a few random ideas why:

1. Harbaugh's play calling by committee probably works fine when there's no pressure but once things start going badly in a big game I wonder how effective it is.  Ask three co-workers where we should go to lunch and I doubt all will agree.  Tell them they have 30 seconds to decide and watch the yelling begin.  I think a lot of the slowness of play and seeming disorganization has to do with a "too many cooks in the kitchen" approach married with the pressure of time.

2. We fundimentally believe that if we simply execute our gameplan we will win, regardless of what the other team is doing so we dont save plays, formations or anything else for big games - unlike our opponents that do.  Instead of spending practice time on things they may only use for the OSU game, for example, they'll work on reps for plays they'll use every game to make sure they've got them down pat.  Can anybody remember EVER seeing a new wrinkle for the OSU game?  OSU, on the other hand, was doing things so differently Seth tweeted mid-game "why do I bother scouting these guys?"  They were unpredictable - we were completely predictable.

3. Because of point #2 teams by the end of the year know EXACTLY what we're going to do and when we're going to do it.  And  because they're also good teams they're able to shut us down pretty effectively.  Tons of film on Michigan by the end of the year and player after player for both OSU and Florida said post game to the effect "we were well coached and knew exactly what was coming before they ran it."  

As MDog said above - entirely self-inflicted wounds and entirely fixable if Harbaugh will just let go of the offense but as Brian says, not likely to happen.

Sigh.

ScooterTooter

January 2nd, 2019 at 2:11 PM ^

See this is where I get confused (and why it sucks we don't get UFRs for these games). 

In 2016 and 2017 by all I can remember, the staff called a very good game on offense vs. OSU. In fact, Brian and Ace were both pretty optimistic that if anyone other than John O'Korn had played QB, Michigan would have won last year. 

Meanwhile, this year after listening to the podcast after the game, I believe I remember all three guys agreeing that Ohio State didn't do anything out of the ordinary other than adjust to Michigan trying to hide Brandon Watson.