"We're All Disappointed, But Are We Surprised?"

Submitted by LSAClassOf2000 on November 25th, 2018 at 5:55 PM
So, based on some discussions I had with a few people last night, I went back to the beginning of our more meaty football discussion this season - just before camp in August, in fact. What I was looking for was the yearly prediction thread that shows up around that time, the only thread unadjusted by camp news or actual game play. What I was curious about is this - what was our baseline expectation for the season? Did we get it right, or were were overconfident? Maybe too pessimistic? I hadn't visited that thread since it was new, so I honestly wasn't sure. All I had to start with was the actual regular season record, which as we are well aware is 10-2 with losses at ND and OSU. A while ago, I found that very thread from July 31st, and I managed to get a decent sample size of predictions -53 of them, to be precise. Given the normal amount of participation in such threads, that seemed to be a basis for a reasonable guess as to what the broader blog might have felt at the time. The range of predictions was fairly diverse, from a low of 7-5 to a couple predictions of 12-0, but the breakdown was as follows: 7 wins - 1 8 wins - 10 9 wins - 14 10 wins - 15 11 wins - 10 12 wins - 3 That's how the 53 predictions were split. Now, the most common loss predictions were not shocking at all - OSU, MSU, ND, in that order, at least for the people who broke it down game-by-game. I was more focused on the baseline expectations, however, just to see if our gut instinct was in the ballpark. As it turns out, we were pretty much on the money - the overall average prediction for wins was 9.604 and 2.396 for losses, which rounds up to a prediction of 10-2 with OSU being the most common "L" for those who broke out their predictions into specifics. So, we were disappointed, and we have every right to be, but if that thread is any indication, our instincts were correct. Our expectations, unadjusted for actual news and results, were more or less spot on given the average. That said, I think in-season results drive much of what many here are feeling at the moment, but if we did a little introspection, I am sure our July selves probably are saying "Yep."

Comments

Feel The Strength

November 25th, 2018 at 7:49 PM ^

Really good insight here.  After ND I thought we might be looking at 8-4/9-3 depending on how we handled the meaty October portion of the schedule.  Personally, my expectations changed as the season progressed into an actual contender.  The defense gave up more yards against Rutgers and Indiana than expected and that didn’t sit well heading into The Game.  10-2 is still considered to be a great season but losing the way we did yesterday makes it feel more like 8-4 or 7-5.  

tybert

November 25th, 2018 at 7:52 PM ^

I thought 9-3. Wasn't sure if we'd lose at NW or home vs. UW.

Really glad we shut up Sparty and the way we did before, during, and after the game. Bush league!

Also, Franklin needed a real beatdown and got it. Still mad we didn't stop them from scoring, but it was garbage time.

My surprise is that the slants and patterns SMU used to gouge us and then Indy didn't get a response for OSU from our D and staff.

OSU did to us what we did vs. PSU in '97 - just completely dominated the game. Not something they have done that often to anyone. 

Shea had troubles yesterday at times, but look at the stats for the year, including the 3-game run in the middle. 

WIN the F-ing bowl impressively and then get ready for the final Saturday in November starting the morning we get back from Tempe or Atlanta.

GeorgetownTom

November 25th, 2018 at 8:04 PM ^

I predicted a 9-3 record, so a 10-2 finish exceeded my own expectations on paper. But if you look closer at the 10-2, it's disappointing. 

They beat MSU, but MSU turned out to be an above average team finishing 7-5. Wisconsin looked tough pre-season but ended up 7-5, their worst finish in recent memory. PSU was a good win, but PSU was not nearly the team they were the previous two years. Northwestern is a good win if you go by rankings, but that's a team that went 0-3 in the non-conference and likely finishes sub .500 if they played in the B1G East. Michigan also nearly lost to them. Western Michigan is the only other team that Michigan beat that finished with a winning record. Most importantly, against the only two teams on Michigan's level or at least perceived level this year (ND, OSU), Michigan lost convincingly to both. 
 

GeorgetownTom

November 26th, 2018 at 1:44 PM ^

It was a one score loss, but some context is needed.

It was a 14 point deficit with 5 minutes left in the 4th quarter before Michigan finally put together their only TD drive (the other TD came on a kickoff return). So while it was a 7 point deficit at the end of the game it felt larger. And yes, Michigan had the ball with the chance to tie at the end, but that drive fizzled out with Michigan in their own territory. They never came close to tying it. Basically, I never got the sense that Michigan was on ND's level that day. Similar to how I felt about Michigan's one score win against NW. It was a close win, but Michigan was the far better team.

Mgoczar

November 25th, 2018 at 8:23 PM ^

Michigan did exceed my win total. I had 9-3. However , DID NOT see giving up 62 points. That's the problem. We got destroyed. Basically we are good not elite. All I want to focus on is how to improve and get to elite. What needs to be done and what parts are missing. Also would be nice to see some silver lining type of post highlighting if we were moving towards explosive offense. 

UMProud

November 25th, 2018 at 8:43 PM ^

After ND I figured 7-5 but didn't expect Wariner magic.

 

I'm so very butthurt from this game and I am having trouble getting past the loss...taking a break til I can put this shit in perspective.  Michigan FB has become almost a religion to me and I need to not care so much.

 

And, at 53, I don't remember when Michigan didn't choke regularly on big games...it's what we do...so honestly not surprised we lost.  Surprised about being crushed yes.

awesomo48

November 25th, 2018 at 9:50 PM ^

Same age. Same feelings. Same recent memories. Grew up going to watch Mike Jolly, our neighborhood hero, play high school football and then followed every possible exploit when he was at the University of Michigan. Took pride in coaches (McCartney, Herrmann) teammates (LaFountaine) and guys from my school (Dohring, Rekowski, and now Aidan Hutchinson) who made or are making their mark as Wolverines. 

MGoStrength

November 25th, 2018 at 8:48 PM ^

The difference between happiness and disappointment is results in relation to expectations.  At the beginning of the season 10 wins sounded like a great year.  But, after going 9-1 and only losing the first game by 3 points to an undefeated team, that brought expectations up and led to our disappointment.  As a realist, I saw the loss to OSU coming all along (albeit not by as much), but many here drank the Cool Aid and got their expectations up.

BlueMan80

November 25th, 2018 at 9:06 PM ^

I remember the thread and I chose not to participate because I had no basis to make a prediction.  We didn’t have a Spring game to see Shea,  the O-Line was 5 guards, and the defense looked solid, but no defense can withstand 40 minutes of play each game.  Being an optimist, I probably would have guessed 9-3 as an act of faith.  10-2 is a good season and beyond expectations.  It’s just a bad end after 10 straight wins that made me get excited enough to secure tickets and a hotel room in Indy for the B1G Championship game.  I really want to go to that game.  We will get there.  Just not this year.  I swear OSU sandbagged their way through 11 games to get us into false sense of security.

username03

November 25th, 2018 at 9:12 PM ^

The schedule wasn't nearly as daunting as was thought before the season. The ND and OSU games showed us how far we are from competing with high level teams, we didn't really have a realistic shot in either. I am surprised by that.

harmon40

November 25th, 2018 at 9:16 PM ^

Losing to OSU, in itself, is not surprising.

Losing the way we did was absolutely shocking. In most profound depths of the Rich Rod and Hoke eras, we never took a loss like this. 62 points?! This is what OSU does to cupcakes!!

On the whole, still very happy with 10-2, especially given how scared we all were after the ND game. But I would still say that the way we lost was stunning

Wolverine 73

November 25th, 2018 at 9:28 PM ^

Yeah, I was surprised.  Because in July you are guessing at what you have.  We had no idea Shea would turn out to be as good as he was.  We had not beaten PSU and MSU soundly.  We did not know we would have the No. 1 defense in the country.  In late November, we knew those things.  So damn right, I was surprised to see the defense collapse the way it did.  I expected to give up 21-31 points, but if you had told me we would score 39, I would have said “we win.”

FrankMurphy

November 25th, 2018 at 9:44 PM ^

In my view, here's where the frustration comes from... We started the season with Harbaugh facing a tremendous amount of pressure, and the program facing an uncertain path back to elite status. After the ND loss, that path grew murkier, and the pressure on Harbaugh intensified. As the season progressed, it started to seem like ND was an aberration and that Harbaugh would finally break through and restore the program to the ranks of the elite. And after yesterday, we're back to where we were after the ND loss: the real Michigan is a team that beats up on lesser teams but chokes in its very biggest games, and it's unclear when or even if we'll ever be anything other than an also-ran. 

That about sums it up, I think. 

You Only Live Twice

November 25th, 2018 at 9:53 PM ^

It may sum it up, for YOU.  We are not back where we were before. 

ND was Shea's first game with Michigan and he has been a factor in our 10 wins after that.

Also, all of the currently ranked teams beat up on lesser teams, and choke now and then in the more intense matchups.  If you can only support your team when they deliver Bama-like results you have a difficult road ahead of you.

FrankMurphy

November 25th, 2018 at 10:54 PM ^

If you think an 0-4 record against our biggest rival for a coach whose hiring was practically hailed as the second coming of Jesus (coupled with a 2-16 record for the program overall against that rival over the past 18 years) is akin to choking "now and then", and if you think that a Big Ten championship drought that is now entering its 14th year (coupled with zero appearances in the B1G Championship Game) for a program that once dominated the conference is something that should be met with a shoulder shrug and a "win some, lose some" attitude, then I'm really not sure what to tell you.

This is not about supporting the team. We all support the team. This is about expecting a program that generates a disproportionate share of hype to actually live up to it.

tokyowolverine

November 26th, 2018 at 9:40 AM ^

For sure the media (and fans) whipped up the frenzy and made the return of Harbaugh as the savior. 

But no one in the program ever promised or guaranteed you a championship  The promise from Harbaugh was that he would build a great program of MEN, in the Michigan tradition. He's succeeding.

Yes, we aren't the dominate team we once were, but neither are we mired in scandals, our players are not put in jail, there are no pay to play investigations, there is no winning at any cost attitude.

Maybe we don't win Championships because of that and I'm personally fine with that.

I know there are other opinions on that. That doesn't mean I'm wrong or you're wrong, just a different set of goals.

Mongo

November 25th, 2018 at 9:45 PM ^

How does Maryland and PSU go toe-to-toe with OSU and we get butt-stomped?  Man defense was a huge mistake, but that is what we do so whatever.  Live by the sword and die by the sword ...

You Only Live Twice

November 25th, 2018 at 9:45 PM ^

Apprehension was sky-high among fans because of the tough road schedule this year, which turned out to only be a problem at OSU and ND.

OSU also, whether looking ahead to Michigan or not, flailed about on the road.  Thinking it over I don't buy that they just poured all that extra prep time into getting ready for us.  They didn't beat Maryland, MD ended up beating themselves.

So if most people's predictions included a couple of road losses, in answer to LSA's question... fairly accurate.

I really, really look forward to the home schedule in 2019.

 

M_Born M_Believer

November 25th, 2018 at 10:24 PM ^

I have given myself 24 hours to cool off because as most are stating here.  It is not so much that we lost to OSU (that does suck), but how the game played out. It had reached a point that it was humiliating.

Now that I have cooled off.  I am still disappointed, but here is my perspective.

Michigan is now a Top 15 program (ranking between 8-15) and if status remained quo, that is pretty much where we will be.  This compares to MSU during their 6-7 years of glory (quickly fading BTW) or Wisconsin.

The question now is, will tweaks be made to elevate the program to a Top 5 in the country to hang around with 'Bama, Clemson, Oklahoma, and yes OSU?

And, to me, tweaks need to be made on BOTH sides of the ball.

For Defense, Don Brown is a great coach, he is a DUDE.  His man to man pressure scheme works great..... Against 111 out of 126 teams in the FBS.  It will make a mockery of the lower 100 teams, consistently beat the next 20 teams, BUT to complete and beat any of the top team, the defense has to be able to play man AND zone coverages.  Can not go out there and "out athlete" the top teams, need to mix up the coverages.  All of the QB's noted above are too good to say "Hey, we're here to play man to man....lets go!"

On offense, again measure against the top teams, 50 points a game is the barometer, having a ball control offense is great, but there is the need to be explosive plays as well because when you complete against those top teams, they WILL score and score plenty (Clemson gave up 35 to SC, Bama gave up 21, and Okla..never mind that D is simply terrible).  But the point remains, the offense needs to continue to evolve with the ability to go up tempo when needed and the continued evolution of the passing game so that 50 points is certainly attainable consistently.

 

Harbaugh is currently 38-13 and with a Bowl win and has the opportunity to finish with the highest ranking since 2003 or 1999.  It has been a LONG TIME coming to be back in this position.

What I see is: Status quo equals ~10 wins season and being ranked between 8-15.  Tweaking is needed to take the final step.

The question is, do you believe that JH is willing to make those tweaks or just accept the status quo?

To me the answer is obvious and if you really have to ask which way JH falls on this matter, then you have not really been paying attention to the overall building of this program that JH has put into it........

 

Swayze Howell Sheen

November 25th, 2018 at 10:40 PM ^

Honestly, the whole feel of the season would be quite different if The Game's score had been something like a 35-31 loss. It was just the pounding that took a lot of luster off of an up-til-that-point great season.

wolverinebutt

November 25th, 2018 at 11:32 PM ^

I predicted 10-2.  After ND I changed it to 8 wins, maybe.  The team grew, but they fooled us in thinking they were better.  Lets hope we don't lose to many guys early to the NFL draft look to next year. 

At least we didn't didn't have to watch the Lions today!   

WolverineMan1988

November 25th, 2018 at 11:39 PM ^

Am I surprised? Am I surprised?? Yes, I think every football fan in America was at least mildly surprised that Michigan came out looking unprepared, uninspired, out coached, outclassed, out executed, out hustled, and basically like they didn't even belong on the same field. 

I genuinely think that Michigan coaches and players came into this game believing wholeheartedly that they were going to win and maybe even dominate. However, I also think that they forgot that the other team might actually prepare and be ready to sucker punch them in the throat. This team clearly wasn't prepared mentally both in terms of game preparation and just being ready for the other team's absolute best shot. You gonna tell me that their offensive scheme was so good that NONE of our DL players could win a one on one matchup and even apply pressure to Haskins? For 4Q?? I'd like to be wrong, but I think this team showed up thinking it was going to be easy and wasn't ready for a street fight. 

Onviously I'm venting, but anyone who has ever played sports on a somewhat competitive level can at least somewhat agree with me that Michigan just was not prepared. If there's a counter argument, someone please make it. The only one I can think of is that UM had the equivalent day of a great shooter in basketball going 0-15 from 3 and chalking it up to an "off day."

chatster

November 26th, 2018 at 6:18 AM ^

Am I disappointed?  Yes.  But I also try to be a realist, so apart from the bookend losses to Notre Dame and Ohio State, this season has been a pleasant surprise.

As a Red Sox fan for most of my life (born during the Truman administration), I tend towards pessimism, despite the four World Series championships in the past 15 seasons.  I didn’t post in the pre-season prediction thread, but in August I was thinking that I wouldn’t have been surprised by a 7-5 season, but thought that 9-3 was possible with a few good breaks.

I expected losses at Notre Dame, Michigan State and Ohio State.  I was worried about Wisconsin because the Badgers were getting a lot of pre-season hype (there was a time when many pundits had them in the playoffs, plus they had a Heisman Trophy candidate in running back Jonathan Taylor and Sports Illustrated ran a glowing story about their offensive linemen). I also thought that Penn State at home and Northwestern on the road would be toss-up games.

Among my concerns were: (1) uncertainty about the skills of the offensive tackles; (2) finding a suitable replacement for Mo Hurst; (3) possibility that Shea Patterson had been overhyped since he came out of IMG; (4) finding a reliable punter; (5) getting good replacements for holder Garrett Moores and kickoff specialist James Foug who’d been key players on special teams; (6) Pep Hamilton commanding the offense; (7) several new coaches; and (8) the lack of any apparent contributors among the true freshman class.

What I learned:  (1) After the first game, Jon Runyan and Juwann Bushell-Beatty seemed to perform reasonably well as offensive tackles, and until recently they both were healthy.  (2) Mo Hurst probably was irreplaceable and it showed.  (3) Shea Patterson wasn’t spectacular, but he was very good (especially considering the QB play after Jake Rudock left), even though he doesn’t have the arm strength that he’d need to take advantage of downfield throws and he’ll likely be overshadowed in the All-Conference voting. (4) Will Hart emerged as the Big Ten’s leading punter for average distance and mostly was a reliable holder.  (5) Jake Moody was very reliable on kickoffs and has made eight of eight field goal attempts in place of Quinn Nordin. (6) Pep Hamilton isn’t very good as an offensive coordinator.  (7) Apart from the first and last games of the season, Ed Warinner seems to have done enough with the offensive linemen to make them better than I’d expected, but it’s hard for me to know whether any of the other new coaches made much of an impact.  (8) Other than Jake Moody, Ronnie Bell and Aidan Hutchinson, it appears that all of the other true freshmen have preserved their redshirt status.  Those three who played regularly were solid contributors, even though their contributions were limited until Moody set a school record when he made all six of his field goal attempts to win the Indiana game.

tokyowolverine

November 26th, 2018 at 9:08 AM ^

Thanks for taking the time to write this. 

Pre season, the rational part of my brain said 9 wins, but as soon as there's a kickoff, that part of my brain completely shuts down and I think we can should beat everyone and can't understand why we could ever lose... But that's what I love about college football... Anything can happen. 

Blue in PA

November 26th, 2018 at 9:30 AM ^

Whether it would have made any difference in the big scheme of things or not, in my head there were a couple 'tipping points' in the first half.

2nd and 2 after a Higdon 8 yard carry on the first drive, we go play action and get sacked..... FFS!! hand the ball to Mason and move the damn chains!

The 2pt attempt after the turnover TD, why?  Take the PAT and  don't give them anything positive after a turnover.  

We gave their D stops on both and let them build momentum and confidence.   MD ran for 250 yard in the 1st half against that D.

 

But, that's the way it went.

 

Bill in Birmingham

November 26th, 2018 at 10:25 AM ^

Surprised with the record? No. To me, 10-2 is a good (not great, particularly given the talent that came back) year. Surprised at losing to OSU? Yes, but not overly so. Surprised at giving up 62 points to OSU? Absolutely stunned.

ih8losing

November 26th, 2018 at 10:46 AM ^

I'm in the camp of highly disappointed. Yes W-L is all that matters - just look at OSU - but the way we lost to OSU cannot be understated.

My question now is, what will Harbaugh focus on during the off-season to improve things. Last year it was the S&C and OL, which were massively improved. BUT... I don't think we will ever be able to recruit at OSU's level but we certainly need to be deeper with top talent. Will Harbaugh go out and hire a top OC who can scheme us into wins, without relying on top tier talent?

 

I'm behind the team all the way but this was brutally painful to watch.  Go Blue!

 

Old_TBone

November 26th, 2018 at 10:55 AM ^

The only takeaway I have from this is that as the season progressed, we built hopes up on 1) our taking care of business against teams that later melted and 2) we over played OSU's struggles vs. Maryland, MSU, Indiana, and Purdue.

Did anyone believe we have the talent to make headway in the playoffs if we got there? 'Bama / Clemson would have depantsed us as well, I think.

(Watch ND be depantsed in the CFP Beauty pageant regardless who they play.. and remember, you heard it first here.)

The trajectory of Michigan under Harbaugh is still ascending. We're back to within a step of the best teams. You couldn't say that before this year. This team is better than our '06 team that was on par with OSU and the best out there... 

But this embarrassment has provided Michigan a true measure of how far there is to go and the motivation to get to that next level. Offensive scheme, D, Talent, S&SPEED conditioning... all must improve. Not torn down and restarted. Incremental improvement.

That motivation would not be there if OSU had squeaked out a win or we lost by some fluky shit.
Ignore the noise out of East Lansing and focus on this one thing - and we'll get back to the elite in CF (hopefully before Saban, Dabo and Urban check out, cause I'd really like to kick all of their asses).

McFate

November 26th, 2018 at 11:03 AM ^

Where things stood in the consensus of preseason publications (UM was #9):

  • ND was #13
  • Wisconsin was #6 and overwhelming choice to win the B1G West
  • Michigan State was #11
  • Penn State was #12
  • Ohio State was #3 and overwhelming choice to win the B1G East

In that context, picking 2-3 losses is more than reasonable.  You have two higher-ranked opponents (but not so much higher-ranked that you don't have a shot to beat them), and three tough-but-lower-ranked opponents (who similarly have a shot to beat you).  2-3 or 3-2 in those five games would be the most common outcome.

But what if I'd told you before the season that:

  • MSU and Wisconsin would barely achieve bowl eligibility,
  • OSU would forget how to play defense,
  • UM would be the B1G team on the playoff fast-track, and
  • of the teams on the schedule only Notre Dame and Northwestern would surpass preseason expectations.

.... then how many losses would you have picked?

Wendyk5

November 26th, 2018 at 1:20 PM ^

I am surprised, not that we lost, but that Ohio State won the way they did, and that in one week, they seemed to have fixed all that ailed them over the season. 

Blumami

November 26th, 2018 at 5:31 PM ^

I believe that the basis for our disappointment is largely the expectations that we had for OSU’s performance which were set As a result  of their play against Purdue and Maryland among others. Unfortunately, that is not the Buckeye team that showed up at the ‘shoe on Saturday. Emerging from the tunnel instead was the team that was ranked #3 in ESPN’s preseason power rankings — loaded with 4 and 5 star talent. Viewed thru that lens, with the benefit of hindsight, we should not have been surprised. 

greatlakestate

November 26th, 2018 at 7:24 PM ^

I was disappointed and I WAS surprised. I will never be surprised again.(Perma-BPONE)   But I said last year I wouldn't attend another OSU Michigan game until UM proves that they can win one. I've now extended that to watching them on TV as well.  It ruins my enjoyment of the rest of a good season (2016,2018 for example.)  

MaizeMN

November 26th, 2018 at 11:39 PM ^

Thanks for doing the follow up on this. I was thinking the same thing, relative to our earlier expectations.

I think the reason for most of the intense disappointment was based on an expectation after OSU's underperformance in some games.

Their lackluster games against Purdue and Maryland made them appear more vulnerable. They have so much talent that they tend to look past certain games and take a win for granted. I think a lot of us bought into that, while forgetting that OSU will never take the UM game for granted.

uminks

November 27th, 2018 at 12:31 AM ^

The big bpone thing about it is that our team was on a roll, of course we did not play hard against Rutgers and IU, but OSU was having a tough time against NE and Maryland. I thought we could take them and did not expect the total collapse of both our defense, offense and special teams. All we had to do was take care of business and we would have won the B1G and made the playoffs and great things may have occurred with recruiting and having Michigan back the national stage. Now we are the butt of jokes getting our asses whipped the way we did by OSU. It was a very embarrassing loss for the program. If I knew we did not have a shot at the playoffs, I would have accepted a loss to OSU better but they ruined our season and possibly future seasons by destroying our team.