CFP ranking discussion - M stays at #4
Well, rankings are out and the top 10 held serve.
- Alabama
- Clemson
- Notre Dame
- Michigan
- Georgia
- Oklahoma
- LSU
- Wazzu
- West Virginia
- Ohio State
- UCF
- Syracuse
- Florida
- Penn State
- Texas
- Iowa State
- Kentucky
- Washington
- Utah
- BC
- Mississippi State
- Northwestern
- Utah State
- Cincinnati
- Boise State
Florida and Kentucky continue to be laughably overrated.
November 13th, 2018 at 8:17 PM ^
Past about the top 6, there can't be much thought going into these rankings.
OSU goes on the road and beats a ranked team and doesn't move. Florida limps their way to a win and moves up. Makes no sense.
The fact that there are so many teams with multiple losses really lets the committee work these rankings to their advantage.
November 13th, 2018 at 8:42 PM ^
Everyone in the top 10 won. Hard to justify moving OSU up, even if they did have the "best" win in that group.
November 13th, 2018 at 9:04 PM ^
I think the OSU score makes it look like a solid win. Those of us who watched know that both teams looked like crap for much of the game, and that OSU didn't shine in any areas--other than special teams--that struck much terror. But it may not have been the worst thi ng that they didn't look like a pushover. Harbs and co. will prepare appropriately.
November 13th, 2018 at 8:19 PM ^
David Pollack is a complete dick.
November 13th, 2018 at 8:28 PM ^
Would like to see OSU and UCF meet in a bowl game where the Buckeyes get clobbered.
November 13th, 2018 at 8:37 PM ^
UCF and Clemson are the same to me. UCF has a harder strength of schedule than Clemson has per BillC.
November 13th, 2018 at 10:13 PM ^
clemson has lots of talent and a schedule so soft it's unbelievable, I put ND in front of them easily.
November 13th, 2018 at 9:02 PM ^
It would seem that getting shut out by Alabama is better than a win.
November 13th, 2018 at 9:04 PM ^
What the hell does Kentucky need to do to drop out of these rankings? They're a perfectly fine team, but at some point the committee is going to have to accept that maybe the team that beat Missouri by a point and Vandy by a TD while getting blown out in successive weeks by Georgia (understandable) and Tennessee (less so) isn't a top-20 team.
November 13th, 2018 at 9:15 PM ^
The committee does this a lot, to a fault. They have a fetish for "good losses".
You can gain more from losing to a top team than actually winning games. Even if you get blown out.
If you lose to Alabama (LSU) or Georgia (KY) it's like you never even lost.
It's stupid, but it works to our advantage given that our only loss was to the #3 team who is undefeated.
OK, whatever works.
Whoo Hoo!! We have the best loss in the country!
November 13th, 2018 at 9:50 PM ^
Leave the SEC and join the B1G. That'll drop em good son.
November 13th, 2018 at 9:19 PM ^
This committee is full of putzes.
I don’t think a single team has won and dropped more than 1 spot even though teams behind them may have had significantly better wins.
They had their minds made up at the first release and haven’t let on field performance change anything beside loses... that is unless a B1G team loses they drop 6-10 spots. When SEC teams lose they drop 2-4 spots.
November 13th, 2018 at 9:26 PM ^
Can't wait for Joel Klatt to rag on the committee tomorrow, especially about LSU and Syracuse.
November 14th, 2018 at 9:58 AM ^
LSU at 7 is just a complete fucking joke.
November 13th, 2018 at 9:28 PM ^
Army should be ranked, they would probably beat 6-7 teams in the Top 25.
November 13th, 2018 at 9:38 PM ^
Kentucky... seriously? #17? Ridiculous.
Honestly I couldn’t care less about these polls/rankings etc. until we finish up our season. I just want to beat Indiana, OSU and then ENJOY the Big Championship. Worry about all the other stuff later.
November 13th, 2018 at 9:48 PM ^
If penn state wins out they could be a top 10. Resume booster.
if Michigan beats a top 10 on the road. Resume booster.
if nw wins out and Michigan beats them in Indy. Resume booster.
win out and michigan is in the playoffs. Possibly the 3 seed even if bama stumbles.
November 13th, 2018 at 9:56 PM ^
Regardless of what the talking heads say, we're not going to jump Notre Dame unless they lose.
November 13th, 2018 at 9:58 PM ^
I like how LSU barely got out of 2-8 Arkansas without a loss (Arkansas' only two wins are vs a 2-8 Tulsa team, and a 3-7 Prep school called Eastern Illinois College), while Wazzu, WV and OSU soundly beat much better teams (teams with winning records against P5 schools), and none of these 1 loss teams gained any ground against 2 loss LSU.
Look for a similar performance by LSU against 1-10 Rice this weekend, and a corresponding lack of movement off of #7 in the CFP.
November 13th, 2018 at 10:02 PM ^
Lots of football left to play. The rankings don't really interest me until after the B1G championship game. If, God forbid, we lose next Saturday, they won't interest me at all.
November 13th, 2018 at 10:04 PM ^
It is as if the committee refuses to review significant games or anomalies. Syracuse looks good against Clemson and defeats Western Michigan as both those teams have worse than average games for hanging onto the football. Northwestern looks bad because they had two early games where they insisted on giving away the ball. Somehow the committee members are not paying attention. I don't believe we should rank teams as if they would play their worst game on a regular basis. Pick your favorite computer ranking and then work out the anomalies. Check the eye test, please. On the other hand, maybe teams 15 to 40 are the same and it barely matters.
November 13th, 2018 at 10:09 PM ^
What is NW ranked if they finish 8-5? They'd have to be top 20? And if Sparty wins their last 2 they'd have to creep back into the top 25. I don't see any way Bama leap frogs us in the weird scenario everyone's worrying about. There's no rational way the committee could explain that one.
November 13th, 2018 at 10:16 PM ^
What leapfrog? If Bama loses a game, is it really that much of a stretch for them only to drop to #3 or #4? In 2006, Michigan lost to OSU and didn't drop at all the first week; they moved down to #3 after one more USC win, then got jumped by Florida when USC lost and suddenly "rematches are bad and conference titles are good."
Is it really that unreasonable to think that a 12-1 Alabama is one of the best four teams in the country?
November 13th, 2018 at 10:27 PM ^
Your last sentence is a major strawman response to my point. In that scenario (that almost certainly won't happen anyway but whatever) Michigan and Alabama would both be 12-1, both would have a single loss to a playoff team. Michigan's would be to the #2 team while Bama to the #3 team. Michigan is a conference champion and Bama is not. Michigan's single loss was the first game of the year and Bama is the last game. Then you add in all of Michigan's quality wins and compare them to Alabama. There's just no logical way the committee could put Alabama in over us.
November 13th, 2018 at 10:42 PM ^
There's absolutely a logical way to do it: they could decide that Alabama is one of the four best teams in the country, which is the entire criterion.
Look, they've steamrolled everybody they've played so far. Suppose Georgia wins on a fumbled punt or a kick six or some other improbability. They could absolutely decide that Alabama is one of the top four teams in the country, and they got unlucky in one game.
Conference championships are a red herring that only matter when it's convenient. Whether it's the first or the last game really shouldn't matter at all.
I happen to think Michigan probably gets in if this doomsday scenario occurs, but it wouldn't shock me at all if they picked Alabama either. That's why I continue to root for chaos. :). (It also wouldn't shock me if they left Notre Dame out and kept both Alabama and Michigan. That would be epic. :)
November 14th, 2018 at 8:40 AM ^
They've (Alabama) steamrolled everyone, sure. But if they lose to Georgia, they will have lost to a team that lost to LSU, who Alabama beat 29-0, and the SEC is the best Conference in football-- including the NFL. Alabama would beat the Buffalo Bills in the Super Bowl.
/s
November 13th, 2018 at 10:51 PM ^
"There's just no logical way the committee could put Alabama in over us."
- Things I didn't expect to make perfect logical sense preseason
November 13th, 2018 at 11:19 PM ^
The problem with your argument is logic. You assume the the committee will employ logic. It will employ logic, but maybe not yours.
November 13th, 2018 at 11:47 PM ^
I believe what the committee uses with regard to the SEC and to a lessor extent the ACC, is referred to as circular logic.
November 13th, 2018 at 10:09 PM ^
Yeah, I know Indiana, but I can't help but see those dbags lurking at #10
November 13th, 2018 at 10:14 PM ^
Michigan is the only team that can beat Alabama. There, I typed it out loud.
November 14th, 2018 at 6:15 AM ^
Jim Mora Jr. would like to see our Defense go against them. He said because we "go after people" and "take chances" whereas no one has yet to do that against Bama. A great defense can shut down a great offense - I would love the opportunity to see it.
I still remember the 1993 Sugar Bowl (because I lost money it) when 8 point favorite and high powered offense Miami Hurricanes got absolutely dominated by Bama's defense. Bama won 34-13.
November 13th, 2018 at 10:35 PM ^
Win out and we are in. Simple as that.
November 14th, 2018 at 10:09 AM ^
I don't think it's quite that simple. I think it's:
- Win convincingly over Indiana. I know margin of victory is not an official criteria in the rankings, but if we just squeak by Indiana at home this weekend, watch us drop behind Georgia.
- Beat Ohio
- Beat NW
- Stay healthy. If we get racked with high profile injuries, the committee will ding us for not being as competitive
November 13th, 2018 at 10:55 PM ^
Devils advocate - it would be better to be ranked four and lose a game to Bama than be three and lose a game to Clemson.
November 13th, 2018 at 11:01 PM ^
Just win and worry about the rest later. I on,y care about beating OSU and that is going to be a very tall order. Say whatever you want, they will score more on us than anyone else and we will have to outgun them to win.
November 13th, 2018 at 11:03 PM ^
Legitimate FLA ranking: 21-25
Legitimate LSU ranking: 13-20. They have 2 losses, and neither is particularly good
November 14th, 2018 at 11:24 AM ^
Okay, let's play that game.
Florida's in the 20s, so everyone else gets bumped up a spot. And LSU drops to #13 - I'll give you the utmost benefit of the doubt. You just moved the following teams ahead of LSU:
UCF (9-0) at #10: Maybe you like Central Florida. I don't think they're better than LSU, but I'll allow it assuming you're a mid-major honk.
Syracuse (8-2) at #11: Seriously? Do you want to compare those schedules & results? You want Syracuse ahead of LSU? 0 Top-25 wins? Lost to Pitt?
You moved Florida down, so your new #12 would be Penn State (7-3): So 8-2 LSU with wins over the #5 & #21 teams in the country should be ranked BEHIND PSU? The PSU that has zero wins over a Top-25 team, 3 losses and lost to Michigan by 5 TDs?
This is the problem with all of this SEC bitching. I asked last week who you would move ahead of LSU and nobody game me a straight answer. With another data point, sure, move them behind the 1-loss teams - I don't care. But you can't just blindly crush these teams because you don't like them. When you do that, you replace them by moving up other teams which are even worse. There are 10 (TEN!) teams in the Top-25 with 3 or more losses. And you want to put LSU as low as 20? You want to rank up to FIVE 3-loss teams ahead of LSU?
Please, please, please... give this stuff 1 minute of thought before you post this nonsense.
November 14th, 2018 at 12:09 PM ^
imo, LSU belongs behind osu. both have blowout losses at home but LSU has 2 losses. i would have both teams around #10. i think if a team gets blown out by anyone, it shows some serious weaknesses.
November 14th, 2018 at 1:06 PM ^
I'd have no problem with that. LSU's wins seem to be losing their luster as teams like Miami and Auburn continue to fall. They've lost two games. OSU's played a lesser schedule and only has the 1 loss.
But what's worse? Losing by 29 to Alabama? Or losing by 29 to Purdue? Which shows more "serious weaknesses"?
I don't think there's a right answer. I'm with you. They're both around 10-ish and it could go either way for me. But the people railing on week after week about SEC bias are just lost in the wilderness. LSU has played the toughest schedule in the nation per Resume S&P+. They're the only non-top 5 team to beat a Top-5 team. They're good. Maybe a little high, but it's not as crazy as this board makes it out to be.
November 13th, 2018 at 11:13 PM ^
We have a greater than 50% chance of beating all of those teams with the exception of Bama
November 13th, 2018 at 11:26 PM ^
The Committee must not look at many stats. Must be "old school" like Jim Leyland - operating by gut and feel and intuition. Lots at stake for schools to not try to use some tested and less (un?) biased measurement.
The S&P+ and Resume S&P+ are from the Nov 12 update (https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/8/29/17795292/college-football-2018-strength-of-schedule-week-12-rankings).
November 14th, 2018 at 12:02 AM ^
Wow. It truly boggles the mind that Northwestern is so low in S&P+!!! 77th?!!?
I mean, I know they lost to Akron but they beat Iowa, MSU and Wisconsin and only lost to M by 3 and ND by 10. They are the most bizarre team in the college football easily. The 77th ranked team clinched the B1G west with two weeks to go in the season!
November 14th, 2018 at 8:45 AM ^
S&P+ ignores the wins and losses and focuses upon the likelihood of those outcomes based upon the statistics on a play-by-play basis. They got dominated by Michigan on a play-by-play basis -- the final score didn't reflect that due to sequencing, but after they got to 17 they couldn't do a damned thing on offense and couldn't reliably stop Michigan either.
Keep in mind, S&P+ is designed to be predictive -- if these two teams played again, what's the most likely outcome? I think we all feel Michigan would trounce Northwestern in a rematch. The S&P+ Résumé ranking, on the other hand, is intended to be a "who did you beat" ranking, and as you can see, Northwestern does much better in that one.
November 14th, 2018 at 5:24 AM ^
My takes from that chart are that NW, Florida, BC, Kentucky, Texas, Syracuse and Iowa State dont belong in the top 25. LSU belongs at 20-25. Utah State should probably be near the top 10 if not inside it. Notice that most of these overrated teams are SEC and ACC.
Despite their record ND isnt top 4.
And this leads to the perception that the SEC and ACC are propped up by bias.
November 14th, 2018 at 8:19 AM ^
...which confirms the eye-test, at this time, that the top 6 teams all deserve to be in the final four. Adding OSU and West Virginia would make a very solid field for an 8 team play-off...you can throw one of them out and put UCF in if you wish.
November 14th, 2018 at 9:11 AM ^
Not sure where to post this but ...?
OSU is going to wear red throwbacks for the game. Do we have the option of wearing our home field Blues if we wanted too?
November 14th, 2018 at 10:54 AM ^
Good question. I forget the rule on this, but pretty sure they have to get some kind of approval.
Regardless, this is something I've wanted to see for years now. Like USC-UCLA when it's red vs. the powder blue. Michigan-Ohio State both in their home uniforms would be incredible.
Warde Manuel, I know you read this blog, especially 4 pages deep on an incredibly useless CFP bitch-fest. Please make it happen.
November 14th, 2018 at 12:32 PM ^
X2 ...
November 14th, 2018 at 11:07 AM ^
Why would theirs being a throwback mean we want to wear blue on the road? They are wearing their own home color, throwback or not. Do you mean so that we too should wear a throwback and there is nothing unique in our old road uni's so it should be a blue one?