together again for the first time [Bryan Fuller]

Unverified Voracity Got That Email, Too Comment Count

Brian November 6th, 2018 at 12:34 PM

Wouldn't it be nice. Rivals already published a slightly altered version of an email we received from an established insider, but hell we got it too: per Someone Who Would Know, Shea Patterson is planning on returning for his senior year. He's likely to submit his name to the draft committee for an evaluation, get a mid-round grade, and return.

As this space mentioned a couple weeks back, he's in the heart of the distribution of guys for whom a return makes sense even when the criteria are strictly financial bottom line stuff: draftable but with first round upside if he can just refine his reads.

If that does come to pass Michigan's offense will return every major contributor except Karan Higdon, Juwann Bushell-Beatty, and Grant Perry. A senior Patterson throwing to Collins, DPJ, Martin, Black, and Gentry could be something.

The road to 800. Andrew Kahn goes back in the Beilein archive:

58c_lemoyne

Beilein coaching during a Le Moyne game (Photo: Le Moyne College Athletics)

No. 100

Beilein started his coaching career at Newfane (New York) High School before moving on to Erie Community College, where he won 75 games over four seasons, and Nazareth College (one season, 20 wins). Staying in Western New York, Beilein was hired at Le Moyne College before the 1983-84 season. On Dec. 3, the Dolphins earned their fifth win of that season and Beilein's 100th, beating visiting Bloomsburg State 66-58.

Though the arena was only half full, the 1,000 fans who witnessed win No. 100 were "boisterous" according to the Le Moyne student newspaper. Bloomsburg's star player, Barry "Slam" Francisco, missed a dunk late in the first half, "the crowd got on his case, and he played poorly the rest of the game."

Various other milestones are detailed. Beilein goes for win #800 against Norfolk State.

Which is tonight! Basketball season tips off for real against a MEAC team. Here is a one sentence summary of the MEAC from UMHoops:

Norfolk State didn’t win a Division I game until December 30th, but went on to finish 11-5 in the MEAC.

8:30 on BTN.

[After THE JUMP: around the league]

Basketball: tippin' off. Views from around the Big Ten:

At Illinois, near-total roster turnover meets touted recruit Ayo Dosunmu. The Champaign Room would like the team to "make [them] feel alive again," which uh good luck. Their optimistic projection is 9th. At least their nonconference schedule will help the league's SOS.

At Indiana, patience is running short in [checks notes] Archie Miller's second year:

Then, thanks to rampant rules violations at the University of Louisville, Miller landed the highest-touted recruit since Damon Bailey donned the cream and crimson. The best part about landing Romeo Langford for most Indiana fans? He’s an Indiana kid.

In fact, seven players on the 2018-19 roster are from Indiana.

You’ve got your coach. You’ve got your Indiana kids. What’s left to do but win?

The window could be short, though, as Romeo Langford is a one-and-done and Juwan Morgan’s eligibility lapses at the end of this season. Sure, Keion Brooks and Trayce Jackson-Davis might commit to wearing candystripes, but there’s no guarantee. What Indiana basketball has in front of it as the 2018-19 campaign is set to begin is a single opportunity to prove the fans right or wrong.

It’s been 20 years since Indiana fans had all that they wanted — a top-notch coach and a roster full of Indiana kids. You’ve got it now. If they don’t win, you should shut up.

At Michigan State, the Big Ten title runs through… Matt McPoyle McQuaid!

A repeat Big Ten title could run through…Matt McQuaid. There, I said it. And you know what else? I BELIEVE IT.

And sure, if he can be consistent with his shooting that would be nice. More so, I’m talking about his defense. McQuaid is the best defender on this team, and he’ll be tasked with stopping the likes of Purdue’s Carsen Edwards, Indiana’s Romeo Langford and Michigan’s Charles Matthews to name a few.

McQuaid putting the clamps on his guy in those big games could be the difference in raising another banner or not.

I find predictions of a MSU regular season title entirely baffling!

At Northwestern, a new building. Maybe it can play point guard.

At Penn Statewait what now

Like Jay-Z, I’ve officially come back from retirement* to marvel at Penn State’s meaningless** exhibition game against the preseason No. 13 West Virginia Mountaineers. The Nittany Lions started out strong, commanding a 12-point halftime lead, then answering every Mountaineer run in the second half with one of their own. The game ended on a Josh Reaves tipped shot to close out an exciting, back and forth affair that did not feel like an exhibition.

I had no idea you could play a D-I team in an exhibition. I further had no idea that Penn State could not get laughed off the court by the rootin' tootin' Huggin-est team in all the land. Someone named MYLES DREAD scored 23 points! Is everyone in the conference suddenly regretting this was an exhibition? Yes. Could Penn State be good even without Tony Carr? Maybe! 

At Purdue, Ryan Cline is going to be this year's really annoying Purdue sharpshooter. Expectations seem modest for the Boilers, with most Hammer and Rail folks predicting a bid and a seed between 6 and 10.

Rutgers: no.

Related item about my skepticism in re: MSU basketball this season. I was poking around various teams on Bart Torvik's site to familiarize myself with the league, and there's something ominous lurking for MSU fans: production from their projected stars against high-quality opponents. Winston and Ward went off a cliff last year when MSU played a top-50-quality team.

Winston:

image

Ward:

image

When Winston and Ward got put in tougher situations against better defenses their efficiency plummeted. This doesn't happen to all players. Michigan's stars were pretty consistent, as was Josh Langford. Winston's assist rate stayed high; his three-point shooting, which is almost all assisted (84%) went off a cliff.

If Winston's unable to get off threes by himself, who's creating those shots for him? Langford? Ward? Probably not. Goins and McQuaid, who had 10% and 13% usage last year? I'm skeptical Winston's going to be able to touch his 50% three point shooting from last year.

Ohio State ditches RPOs? That's apparently what happened against Nebraska:

If the RPO, the run-pass option, has actually been banished from the Buckeyes offense after this 36-31 win over Nebraska, Prince and his fellow offensive linemen kicked it out the door, threw its suitcase in the gutter, called it a name and wished it good riddance.

And the Ohio State running backs stood on the porch and nodded in agreement.

"Honestly," running back Mike Weber said, "we didn't have any reads today. I think it was just give the ball to the running back and let him make a play." 

This is being credited for the OSU run game's breakout against Nebraska, the #92 rush D in S&P+. There might be a little something to that as OSU struggled to run against Purdue and Minnesota, but I'd rather have OSU try to man up and run it down Michigan's throat than run a bunch of RPOs.

Draft items. Matt Miller has Gary and Winovich in his latest first round. Gary at #9:

Gary is a top-tier athlete at 6'5" and 280 pounds with the agility and coordination to often play on the edge of the Michigan defense. He's versatile and powerful, and he has room to still improve once in the pros while having enough Day 1 ability to see the field immediately.

Winovich at #31:

Chase Winovich is impossible to miss on the field with his long hair and relentless motor. He's a thick rusher who most likely projects best standing up at the next level, where his athleticism and instincts can beat offenses. For the Rams, he's an excellent fit playing outside the monsters in the middle.

No Devin Bush.

Kentucky exists now. Mark Stoops has been hitting Ohio heavily and it's paid off with the most functional Kentucky football team in a generation:

As to Stoops’ plan, Kentucky’s roster features 27 players from Ohio.

That includes stars such as running back Benny Snell Jr. (Westerville), linebackers Jordan Jones (Youngstown) and Chris Oats (Cincinnati), tight end C.J. Conrad (LaGrange), wide receivers Lynn Bowden Jr. (Youngstown) and Dorian Baker (Cleveland Heights), safeties Darius West (Lima) and Mike Edwards (Cincinnati) and offensive lineman George Asafo-Adjei (West Chester).

“When you think about the players on that roster from that state,” Georgia coach Kirby Smart marveled this week, “it’s amazing.” …

After all, if not for him, those Ohio Wildcats would, more likely than not, be Ohio Spartans or Ohio Hawkeyes or Ohio Boilermakers.

That's not good news for the Big Ten's middle class.

Etc.: Mark Richt going the Bowden route. Ohio State basketball loses their #2 big on the eve of the season. Duncan Robinson might be back in the NBA pretty soon. Chengelis. Rodger Sherman on the Durkin fiasco. There is an 0.1% chance a 5-7 Northwestern team is in the Big Ten title game.

Comments

1VaBlue1

November 6th, 2018 at 1:11 PM ^

Money and longevity.  Being drafted as a mid-rounder nets him a middling (read: expendable) salary on a decent team that probably already has its QB.  Plus, his second contract - where the money is made - would be much les because, as a mid-rounder, he's probably not going to start.  And if he does, well, he was a mid-round pick, not a 'top guy'.  And the signing bonus would be millions lower - tens of millions lower.

It makes financial sense to be a first rounder, if you can do it.  In Shae's case, he (ie: his family) doesn't need NFL money, so yeah, there is sense to be made for him coming back.

ESNY

November 6th, 2018 at 1:47 PM ^

A fourth rounder's contract is worth about $2M over four years but only about $500k is guaranteed.

A second rounder's contract is worth about $6M but $3M or so is guaranteed.  And that jumps if you are a first rounder

Plus teams are more likely to stick it out with a higher draft pick since they generally view lower round picks as expendible.  If

So if you have the skills and chance to improve your draft stock, unless you need the money ASAP, the bigger upside is to wait a year.  Both on your rookie contract and the likelihood that you would play and be able to get that nice 2nd contract

Arb lover

November 6th, 2018 at 2:07 PM ^

The likelihood that you play/start as a 1st rounder is especially key for a quarterback who usually gains experience from starting, coming out of college. Going for that second contract if you played second fiddle and only played short stints in trash time doesn't help your cause much, and many teams taking a 5-6 rd quarterback are doing it for potential development or "in case". Teams don't usually take a 1st round pick to sit as a backup- it's someone they need now. 

I would not be shocked if Patterson left after this year, but I think coming from Ole Miss and adjusting to this offense, he still has a ton of potential to show over the next year, especially given who else is coming back. 

Mongo

November 6th, 2018 at 4:49 PM ^

This is especially true at QB.  Being a 1st rounder is key as it typically puts you on a team who is banking on that guy to become a starter.  Big money improvement over two contract periods plus a true shot at NFL glory. 

Shea needs another year under Harbaugh's system to really show that kind of growth and high ceiling to the NFL. 

Yinka Double Dare

November 6th, 2018 at 1:17 PM ^

Because a mid-round QB might never get a shot to start. Rise to the first round and you almost guarantee a shot at that, and therefore a shot at the fat second contract. 

For a lot of guys, leaving as a third or fourth rounder can make sense, they're more likely to have an opportunity to play right away at positions like defensive line or secondary, where there's rotations or packages using extra guys. QBs are a different thing entirely. 

Tom Pickle

November 6th, 2018 at 1:39 PM ^

I'm going to allow myself the stupidity of already looking at next year because Michigan has a game coming up this week where both teams would just be better off having a bye.

QB: Year 2 Shea >> Year 1 Shea

RB: Probably the most interesting group to me. I think Evans is a good back, but I given that he still doesn't have much of a role on this team I don't think he'll be getting anything other than a plurality of the carries next year. Turner might be ready as an option, but I think the real hope here is that Charbonnet is the real deal at the one position a true freshman can really take over from day one.

Blocky/Catchy: I don't think Gentry has done enough to go pro, but if he gets a 3rd round grade I wouldn't be shocked if he left early. There's plenty of depth there anyway and the one thing really missing is probably an excellent blocker at this position, which he doesn't bring. Overall the group is probably a tick better next year with Gentry back and about even without him.

WR: Everyone back but Perry. I wonder if we see a little more of DPJ in the slot or if Oliver Martin is the one getting almost all the reps there. This group should be the most improved of any unit next year pending health and Shea's return.

O-Line: I don't know how much better this group can really get. Not having a pair of maulers on the right side may hurt. Maybe they would be able to do a little more in the screen game which could play into Evan's strengths if they are more athletic at both tackle spots next year. Could see Runyan moving over to RT if Mayfield breaks out or sticking at LT if Stueber is the better option. Losing Hudson is still confounding and sucks.
 

DE: There's enough bodies here to not have production drop off a cliff, but obviously this group won't be as good as this year. Paye and Hutchinson are good, but like honorable mention All-B1G at best for next year. I don't think Uche can be an every down player, but he will continue to be a terror on passing downs. I'm pretty much writing off Villain ever being a factor, but I hope I'm wrong. Hopefully one of the redshirt or true freshman can play a handful of snaps a game and not get blown off the ball.

DT: Hopefully Soloman is healthy and starts a true break out next year. Dwumfour beefs up a little and is able to hold up on standard downs better. Kemp seems like probably just a steady player that won't give you much more than he has this year. Jeter can hopefully hold up against the run and give you scattered snaps throughout the game. Probably more likely to see Paye bump down and get a few snaps inside than anyone else really cracking the rotation. This is a group where you hope there is solid improvement next year over this year, but I'm thinking it will probably be about the same level of play.

LB: When you lose an All-American obviously things are about to get worse, but there's enough bodies here to get you to 2016 level LB play most likely. Ross can play either spot and Gil seems fine. I don't think Hudson is leaving early at this point. I'd hope Jordan Anthony or Cam McGrone start to push from behind here, but even if they don't this won't be a trouble spot.

CB: I hope both Long and Hill don't leave early because then you have to find an entirely new group of corners. Though what the defense asks of them is not super complicated so it's really just a matter of being athletic enough and then picking the right times to get a little grabby. Ambry Thomas I have full faith in and then you hope one or two guys surface from the rest of the young guys. St-Juste is nearly in Villain territory, but I won't completely discount his chances just yet.

S: Looking at probably similar levels of play next year with Metellus taking a small step forward and Hawkins probably being about on Kinnel's level. Then you just wait to see how long it takes for Dax Hill to start stealing snaps.

Special Teams: Probably remains at this exact level next year, but you know, #collegekickers

Either way this is a pre-season top 10 type of team. I think everyone in the country will rightly give Don Brown the benefit of the doubt going into next year no matter how many starters are back. I think it's probably more of a top 10-15 defense than top 5 like this year, but it won't be noticeable against bad teams. If Shea comes back the offense could legitimately be one of the best in the country. Even if the run game takes a step back you'd be able to pass to set up the run against just about anyone in the country and running back by committee should work just fine even if no one is able to establish themselves as THE guy. Without Patterson the offense may sputter a bit, but it isn't until week 4 that they'll be tested so it shouldn't cost the team any wins.

4th and Go For It

November 6th, 2018 at 2:01 PM ^

Year Two of Patterson should be a major leap for him. Dylan would be able to replace him if he leaves but as good as he's looked in limited snaps is still a somewhat unknown quantity until he's played a full game. The WRs should be poised for a big leap as you mentioned.

Don Brown's defenses always get better in year 3 and beyond, and that's been true this year. It will depend on personnel leaving early (Bush, the CBs maybe they all go, maybe they all stay) but it's possible there's little to no dropoff as guys perform and young guys see the field early.

O-Line: faith in Coach Ed. 

I'd say the only real unknown would be RB as we see if someone can emerge into the Higdon snaps guy between Evans, Turner, Wilson, Haskins, Samuels, and Charbonnet/Gray. Wouldn't be surprised to see a RB transfer as well if we hang on to Gray, so we may lose an option here.

 

 

SirJack II

November 6th, 2018 at 1:43 PM ^

MSU's basketball program soaks up all the Sparty respekt leaving none for the poor, slighted football team. But the football team is compensated in shoulder chips, so I guess it all works out. 

MaizeBlueA2

November 6th, 2018 at 1:55 PM ^

A long time reader of MGoBlog, I've gone back and forth for well over a month on creating this account to hit send. I happen to be close to the football program (administratively), but I'm not going to act like I'm in Schembechler or on that staff. First off, I have no injury info - I have no idea why the Michigan media and fanbase has been so rabid about injuries and depth charts over the course of the Harbaugh era, but we really don’t get that info. Not even in staff meetings is that info shared - all kinds of issues with sharing a kids private info and with gambling becoming more prevalent, it's even more of a reason not to share any injury info. You all HAVE to let that stuff go.

Sure Harbaugh and a few coaches know, but that’s it. And what’s the incentive of sharing injury info or why is it any of our business? The coaches work with who the trainers say are available, it’s pretty simple. The depth chart stuff we have some access to, but again, there is zero upside to sharing...the entitlement of some folks is annoying.

Second, don’t believe everything you read on here...things change all the time in Schembechler Hall. Have you never felt a little sick, planned to be out only to feel better later in the week? Have you ever been fine and then all of a sudden felt terrible? Some fans act like injury reports only move from OUT to AVAILABLE. No, they’re a lot more fluid, trying to keep track of how 115 kids feel every day is daunting and unnecessary. Let the trainers do that, it’s part of their jobs.

NOTE: Most of this post (including above) was written post-Wisconsin game. At the time, everyone was all pissed about not knowing Gary's status to the point where his mom had to respond (so embarrassing).

I’m responding to this poster in particular (post-PSU...I have no idea who that poster was anymore or what thread it was in) because the PERCEIVED arrogance is overwhelming. “It doesn’t sit well with me?” Well who the F are you?! Why should Harbaugh care how YOU feel or what sits well with you? Then I realized, like Harbaugh - who is often misinterpreted, I’m probably misinterpreting your post. And THAT is what happens on here over and over. Harbaugh is not a great public speaker and doesn’t typically enjoy talking to the media...his answer was basically the standard coachspeak of “you need to go as (the player)” that we hear all the time. Lesson for everyone, take what you hear in a presser with a grain of salt unless you know for a FACT Harbaugh is happy go lucky, which is rare. A lot of head coaches see media as the enemy, they intentionally try to keep info away from them - some (Meyer/Dantonio) more than others (Harbaugh/Franklin).

As for Gary, he injured his shoulder forever ago...do you all not remember freaking out about Tarik Black being hurt before the season, then it was OMG GARY! OMG HIGDON! Well, Rashan elected to play through his injury, but yes...he was really hurt! How do some of you all go through that much emotion and worry before the season and just forget about it all once he misses a game? He’s been playing hurt all year and now, yes, like many NFL players or high level prospects...he’s thinking about his future. That does NOT mean the only route is the Bosa route. It just means he’s going to listen and rest until he’s 100% and then GATA. He loves this team and did you not see him crying after games last year - he wants a piece of what's about to come.

Stop speculating on the games, he’s not going to play PSU and OSU and sit the others, #1, he’s from Jersey, #2, he’ll sit if he’s injured...not to save himself for the Buckeyes. No one, including Rashan knows when he’s going to be 100%, but MSU wasn’t it. Let it go. (post-PSU...the bye week was obviously the goal and all is well!)

Speaking of speculation, yes, Hudson caught us ALL by surprise...but understand, we love to talk about college and we don’t want to pay the players and student this and student that. What if he has normal college student reasons for leaving? Again, only the coaches know why...but I remember in college a friend who seemingly loved college transferred because his girlfriend broke up with him, he became depressed and didn’t want to see her every damn day. Not saying that’s what happen, I AM NOT SPECULATING. My point is, why does it always have to be football reasons (grades and playing time)? - if he’s a normal college kid, why doesn’t he get the benefit of the doubt to transfer for reasons normal college kids transfer?

And lastly, before my update...one that I actually started BEFORE MSU, but elected not to share since I’ve been a lurker for so long...a reminder that players and parents read the stuff you post on here. Rashan’s mom was hurt/pissed that so many people were talking badly about her son and if you think that doesn’t piss off the coaches - it does, so now even less (injury info) will come out. Again, they don’t owe anything, it is not their job to share information just because it is craved at fanatic levels. Does Nick Saban share crazy amounts of info? No. Winning is what matters. Please be responsible in your speculation. (post-PSU...Harbaugh definitely stopped commenting with exception to McCaffrey and I bet a dollar he will not give week-to-week updates).

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Anyway, here’s some info to hopefully help with the speculation (should you choose to believe it).

  1. Milton has NOT passed Peters, stop it right there (remember this was post Wisconsin - but it’s still true). Peters is 2b right behind McCaffrey’s 2a. Milton played because it was a blowout and he gets 4 free games. Harbaugh has been frustrated they haven’t been able to play him sooner. The B1G is tough and it’s going to be tough to get him 4 games this season, hopefully more will go like Saturday and you’ll see Milton 3 more times. (post-PSU, again, Peters is the backup now, period - there was all of this speculation at the time because Milton played vs. Wisconsin and Peters didn't).

  2. Along those lines, yes, Brandon is on track to graduate early so he could transfer as a redshirt soph. and play 2 years. He’s NOT redshirting this year, he can’t, he already took his redshirt his freshman year. Basically here is what happened…

  3. Peters was the #2 QB, he wasn’t 100% early in the year and when we needed a backup, Dylan HAD to play because he was the one who practiced and game-planned as the #2 QB. Well, he obviously played well and by the time Brandon was healthy there was no reason to move him ahead of McCaffrey. We see this happen all the time in sports - it drives me nuts that people think Peters isn’t improved or capable (he is BOTH). Tru Wilson is the #3 because Turner was hurt at the beginning of the year, exact same thing happened. I guess no one cares about Turner because Tru has a cool name and isn’t the QB. But it's literally the exact same situation.

  4. The plan was always for Patterson to come for ONE year and then go pro, after this season Peters and McCaffrey would battle for the starting spot and it was assumed that if Dylan won in the spring, Brandon would leave. Milton showed up and inserted himself into the competition, but I don’t think he would’ve beat out either player. He’s still raw and needs one more year ala James Hudson this year on the OL (post-PSU...oops!). Huge upside though.

  5. Patterson is playing better and this still could come to form, but Shea really loves this team and I think he’s embracing being a leader - personally, I think unless he has a MONSTER 2nd half of the season, he comes back next year (post-PSU...and this is why I'm posting now, because it's out there). If that happens, Peters likely transfers and McCaffrey is your #2, Milton is your #3 for 2019.

  6. Chris Evans is progressing but still not 100% (post-PSU he's much better now than when I originally wrote this), that’s why even though he was playing, he wasn’t running the ball much early on. We need him badly, Karan needs his boy back to help carry some of the load. (Post MSU - this bye week is HUGE for Chris! People forget that he was 1B going into the season - a co-starter with a heap of praise).

  7. At WR, for the second year in a row we sorely miss Tarik Black at the WR position (he’s coming back!!!). He’s the most complete WR we have. I actually believe we should move DPJ to the slot next year after Perry leaves so Black, DPJ, and Collins can all play together (post-PSU...we actually saw a glimpse of this in the PSU game!). DPJ is tough, runs great routes, and would MURDER people with the slot fade route. Oliver Martin would come in as the 2nd inside/slot guy. Need to see more from Grant Perry, that said, last week (now 2-3 weeks ago - now 5-6 weeks ago) I read a poster say that he preferred Bell over Perry because “Shea has a better connection with him” or something to that effect. Some folks really need to think and stop being so reactionary. Bell has 3 catches on the year, I believe only one, the big one was from Patterson. Perry has like 5 times that, all from Patterson. WTF are you talking about?! One play and now Ronnie Bell is better than Grant Perry? Yeesh. (This still holds true)

  8. Higdon has said repeated “we have the best OL in the country.” I believe we have the best OL COACH in the country, but he’s working his magic with this group. I wanted to post something in the preseason when everyone was getting pissy about John and Juwan starting over Jalen and James. Warriner knows what he’s doing and who should be playing. Now those guys have some chemistry, they’re not sharing reps like they were in fall camp, and now we’re rolling. I still think we need to run right with Mason as a lead blocker more. Together, that right side can be Jake Long dominant, it takes two of them, but Long is the best OL ever...so that’s okay.

  9. On DL, we missed Gary big time against Wisconsin, Taylor doesn’t go over 100 if Gary plays...his run stopping his so underrated. (Here’s where I stopped after Wisconsin...the rest is during the post-MSU)

  10. Enough on Gary, thanks to Miss Jennifer for setting the record straight. Winovich is playing like a first round talent. So far, this is why you come back for one more year - think of all of the guys on this team who can get a 5th year next year...that said, Uche and Paye, jeez...talk about most improved. Those guys can’t be blocked and they’re speed is benefiting from the attention Chase is getting. Rashan, a bigger body, was always a step late early this year. Those guys are OWNING single man blocking. I expect more of the same. When Gary gets back, they’re really going to be unleashed - like Taco late in the year a few years back.

  11. At LB, Bush is such a leader and a captain. Think about this defense as a whole, it doesn’t have Chase’s personality, it has Bush’s...who has some Chase in him, but isn’t full Chase, because no one should ever go full Chase. I actually think that’s why he didn’t get all the votes to be captain, his schtick can feel like a schtick to some and not vibe with some. Let’s be honest, if he played for OSU our fans would hate him, but damn, you’d have to respect him. Bush will be hated by MSU, but in the locker room, everyone loves that man. I hope he comes back just because I think he’ll leave as the best LB in school history. I don’t have millions waiting for me in April. It'll be a matter of money vs. his legacy, does he want to be up there with the Woodson and Long's? If not, we have to wish the man well, he's one hell of a player.

  12. Our CBs are blankets, the starters are still trying to hit their full potential but MAN, Brandon Watson (another 5th year) has made up the difference and some. When the coaches talking about getting the young guys some practice, this was a group they want to focus on during the bye week. We have to get those young guys some first team practice reps and then they can get into the game rotation...Ambry did this last year.

  13. Ambry, JKP, Sims, Gray are all names that may pop up this week. Aidan Hutchinson, Jordan Anthony and Cam are a few others.

  14. On special teams we have to figure out the kicking game, I think we all know that there will be a camp battle this week...we’re back to fall camp. We’ll see who comes out on top. (post-PSU...still TBD, Nordin isn't right, kickers, man)

  15. Lastly, the notes about the closeness of this team are all true, this has been the tightest team of the Harbaugh era. A lot of it is because the defense trusts the offense. Speight and O’Korn just weren’t trusted by many - especially on the D, Shea coming in has infused life, but Brandon, Dylan, and Joe have earned trust as well. I think it says something that Chase brought Shea under his wing from day one - as leaders, they have a trust that is special/unique. The mood is completely different and is the reason why I've always felt that this was the year. Never know what's going to happen in that last game of the regular season, but this is our best shot under Harbaugh - no question. You could've said that 2 years ago when that class joined up with the one before it. Last year got them all experience, this year is about the championships (plural). 

Post-PSU: I'm still a little concerned about posting so I will not be following-up in the near future. I'm interested to see how these next two weeks play out. Do we go vanilla and win 28-7, 35-7 type games where starters are playing until a late TD in the 4th? Or do we continue to build momentum and come out and try to blow these teams out and starters can sit the 4th? I know Brian likes vanilla and not showing anything, I wouldn't mind it, but with a QB who's still building chemistry, I really think we have to work on some things...we already know we can hand it to Higdon and Evans 40 times and win. I'd like to see us continue to grow Shea as a passer, JMO.

Go Blue!

yossarians tree

November 6th, 2018 at 2:15 PM ^

That's a great write-up and thanks for the insights. I think if you are following the insights of Brian and his staff and most of the more rational commentators on the Board, this insider account is really not a huge surprise, especially re Rashan Gary and the backup QB situation. 

Anyone with half a brain can see Rashan is a warrior and bleeds blue. And while Harbaugh says there is a competition for #2, Peters is the obvious choice.

Don't be a stranger, MaizeBlueA2!

Salinger

November 6th, 2018 at 2:34 PM ^

That... was a lot.

I'm not going to comment on your preamble or points 1-15. 

On the Post-PSU stuff, I think you need to play these next two games like you've got murdering in your veins. Clemson and the other CFP teams are out to kill lesser opponents to show the committee they deserve a vote to the CFP. Michigan needs to enlist that same mentality IMO. I'm not saying bust out the fireworks. I'm saying pound them to dust.

Blue In NC

November 6th, 2018 at 4:44 PM ^

Not sure I agree.  First, you do whatever you need to do to make your team better/improve.  If that means giving more throws to Shea or more snaps to the backup QB, fine.

You also need to keep the team healthy so unless you are working on specific things, getting a decent lead and then pulling seasoned players like Shea, Gary, Winovich, Bush, the CBs, etc. makes sense.  However, I can see playing the OL and other DL members longer into the game.  Ideally you get your backup QB a good amount of snaps before true garbage time.

I don't want any really close games but to me it makes no difference if we win by 20 or 45.  What matters is whether you are improving.  Michigan's resume will be strong enough if we win out.

andidklein

November 6th, 2018 at 4:10 PM ^

Nice write-up. Thank you. Some of the denizens on this board can be a real pain in the ass. The shit they were saying about Gary really pissed me off. I guess everyone forgot about his recruitment and how important actual school was to both him and his mom. 

outsidethebox

November 6th, 2018 at 4:29 PM ^

Excellent...thank you for bringing some sense to this sometimes crazy, mindless, partisan place. This correlates well with my many years of experience.

I will say though that I do not trust Evans. Mid-season he was showing signs of learning how to run through contact...but then he seemed to regress...against PSU he was a mixed bag. I will take the yards and effort of Wilson  that moves the chains over the mixed bag of Evans that gets you 23 yards on one play and -2 on the next three...and then you have to punt. And has he provided any pass protection this season???

Farnn

November 6th, 2018 at 4:56 PM ^

Thanks for posting this.  I've long felt the same way that fans forget these players are human and relatively young ones as well.  I blew up at someone on 247 because Peters didn't play great in the bowl and so was a quitter and the poster couldn't wait for him to transfer.

4th phase

November 6th, 2018 at 6:35 PM ^

Lots of stuff going on here. Post more often in smaller chunks so it's easier to digest, please. Also would help to constantly add to the side of people who stick up for Gary and others. Like Ive said it was obvious he wasn't pulling a Bosa. Also I don't get why everyone wants to jettison Peters so badly. He can win you a lot of games with this defense. 

The play of Evans this year has been pretty weird. We know he has the talent because he was so electric as a freshman. Maybe best RB on the team as a freshman. I think this year is just a case of Higdon sucking all the air out of the RB room as he tries to achieve his goals of breaking 1000 yds and going to the NFL. He will probably have a re-break-out year next year.

 

Harbone IV

November 6th, 2018 at 1:59 PM ^

Random reply but I don't have enough points to create a new thread:

Here is a screenshot of the most recent CFP rankings from their website, which they mistakenly put up briefly (since fixed so they can do the reveal live on ESPN tonight). 

Good news for the good guys! I tweeted it at Fox but haven't heard back.

IMG_20181106_104145.jpg

KTisClutch

November 6th, 2018 at 2:21 PM ^

I just don't get the committee's current infatuation with the ACC. What has Syracuse done to be ranked that high? Beat NC State I guess. But why is NC State ranked 14th? Because they beat 17th ranked Boston College. But why is Boston College ranked 17th? Ahh yes the team that got whooped by not ranked Purdue. 

Harbone IV

November 6th, 2018 at 2:47 PM ^

Agreed. Joel Klatt had an interesting take on this. The gist is that Frank Beamer is on the committee. Joel backs up his claim that the ACC is overrated in the rankings by comparing their S&P and Sagarin ratings to their CFP rankings (CFP gives the ACC schools in last week's CFP ranking--other than Clemson--an average 16.75 spot bump up from what you'd expect based on the computer models, more than any other conference). In other words, the 4 ACC teams btw 19 and 25 of last week's CFP rankings shouldn't be ranked at all. Joel argues the B1G is the conference suffering the downrating as a result, which of course hurts our resume.

https://youtu.be/2hkQ1-oJyEM

Reggie Dunlop

November 6th, 2018 at 4:08 PM ^

They only have 2 losses. Anybody you want to put in front of them has a worse record.

And despite what Klatt says about the B1G, this isn't hurting Michigan at all. We're the top 1-loss team in the country. The only ACC team that matters to us is Clemson and we're not catching them unless they lose. There's no other relevant ACC team to prop up. You can put BC, Syracuse and NC State in the top-10 for all I care. It won't affect Michigan.

 

stephenrjking

November 6th, 2018 at 4:31 PM ^

Nice catch, looks legit.

Michigan needs to win out. If we do, the only teams even in the picture to worry about are Georgia, Alabama (if Georgia beats them in the SEC championship), and Oklahoma. 

So the ACC bump doesn't matter here; the high rankings of LSU, UK, Florida, and Mississippi State are more of a thing. Note that Mississippi State and Florida and Penn State and Michigan State and Iowa all have three losses, but the SEC teams are all higher-ranked. Because they have good wins against... other SEC teams. 

So that inflates the ratings of the two SEC teams if Georgia beats Bama in the SEC championship game.

But I think Michigan is fine so long as we keep winning. The committee should be wise enough to include a 1-loss B1G champion in the playoff in that scenario. Don't forget that even with that downrating of the B1G, we still have a lot of quality wins, we looked great doing it (contrast with Oklahoma's mediocre games against Army and Texas Tech), and our only loss is ranked #3 in the country. 

Beat Ohio.

M-Dog

November 6th, 2018 at 5:42 PM ^

Plus the committee loves that we scheduled a tough out of conference game (Notre Dame), on the road, at night, the first game of the year when everyone else was playing cupcakes.

They will want to reward that, not discourage it.

In fact, if we get to that point and Harbaugh wants to do some good old fashioned lobbying for our cause, all he has to say is "Look, we did exactly what the committee asks for: we scheduled a tough out of conference game, on the road, at night, the first game of the year when everyone else was playing cupcakes.  If you are going to punish that, then nobody will do it anymore."

 

jmblue

November 6th, 2018 at 2:17 PM ^

Shea coming back would be awesome with a capital A.  He's had a fine season but I feel like he's been gradually easing his way through things and building up his confidence and trust with his receiving targets/OL (and perhaps, the coaching staff).  If he's back a year from now, look out.  Shea throwing to upperclass Black/DPJ/Collins/Gentry would be fun.