Member for

9 years 11 months

Recent Comments

Date Title Body
09/18/2018 - 11:15am I'd rather see a ranking of…

I'd rather see a ranking of percentage of yards allowed that come from big plays. I feel like when we allow a big play, it's a BIG play. Other teams playing "bend, don't break" are going to allow a lot more 10-20 yard plays, but their overall yardage allowed on those plays is going to be much lower.

09/12/2018 - 8:57am I was going to suggest this…

I was going to suggest this. To me, this is better than tailgating, especially if you have time for both.

08/31/2018 - 12:57pm Defenseless player

Defenseless player

08/30/2018 - 12:46pm Not really. (1) he made an…

Not really. (1) he made an assertion that involved the average salary of all Americans, not just 20-year-olds. (2) If the value of college is going to be treated as deferred income, then all students receive that and the cost of college would be deducted. Therefore, the difference of what a student-athlete makes and what a student makes is still just the cost of attending.

08/30/2018 - 9:40am Terry Kennel?

Terry Kennel?

08/29/2018 - 9:31am I agree that was a weakness…

I agree that was a weakness last year. They could go 4-5 wide and it would require a LB or Safety to cover a slot. McCray was not fast enough to do this for us. When we put a safety there, we did ok, but very often, the QB would put the ball in the vicinity of where it needed to be and the safety wasn't able to defend like a CB.

This defense is better equipped to deal with such a situation for 2 reasons. First, McCray is being replaced by much more athletic players. We obviously lose a lot on every other play, but we basically got to choose his replacement from 3-4 players waiting in the wings and what we lose from a senior leader can be accounted for elsewhere.

Second, Ambry Thomas coming on allows us to go to bring 3 CB out on the field when a 3rd or 4th receiver enters the field (depending on the RB as a receiving threat). He doesn't even have to be the one working the slot as he can take an outside receiver and we can move our best CB over the slot. If the defense is looking at our 3rd CB as the matchup to attack, this forces them to hit a more difficult throw to the outside rather than a crossing route.

08/28/2018 - 8:35am 47-21 Michigan

DPJ has 3 TD…

47-21 Michigan

DPJ has 3 TD in the first half

08/23/2018 - 11:16am Which statistical…

Which statistical projections?

08/21/2018 - 9:08am Holy shit. I didn't think it…

Holy shit. I didn't think it was true, but every game that I thought of was neutral site. The last away game that we won against a ranked opponent was @ #2 ND in 2006. That is just sad.

08/16/2018 - 1:41pm My friend and I usually pick…

My friend and I usually pick players or position groups to watch and then call things out to each other as if we are playing and diagnosing the play. So, I'll take linemen and he'll take receivers/DBs (or vice versa) and we'll watch those groups calling out run, pass, personnel, stunts, pulls, routes, coverage, etc. He and used to play NCAA Football on Xbox, so it comes from that.

08/15/2018 - 12:58pm Does that take into account…

Does that take into account the splits? I think I tried using that and couldn't figure out how, by adding dividends in, you'd have a lower return than just the splits. Based on their normal yield, of 3-5% that I saw, that seems to be about what you'd expect to see without taking into account splits. If it's not taking splits into account, then total return is somewhere around 10%, which is about what I'd expect.

08/15/2018 - 10:03am Accoriding to this:


Accoriding to this:

Ford stock has split 4 times since 1989, meaning you'd have 5.48x as many stocks now as you would have had in 1989. That seems to account for 5.8% gains per year. You'd have to look at where you'd be at with reinvested dividends, but I'm guessing it's significantly higher than that. Historically, they've been in the 3-6% range. That's still not going to match the S&P 500, but no one really expects an established auto manufacturer distributing dividends to compete with the tech companies currently driving the growth of the S&P.

06/13/2018 - 4:59pm It would be a completely…

It would be a completely different list. They looked at cities with a population of 50k or more. If you start adding in metro areas many of these cities merge, which removes disparity between areas. For example, Metro Detroit would include Detroit, Warren, Sterling Heights, Dearborn, Livonia, Clinton Twp, Canton, Westland, Troy, Farmington Hills, Macomb, Shelby, Southfield, Waterford, Rochester Hills, West Bloomfield, Taylor, St. Clair Shores, Pontiac, Dearborn Heights, Royal Oak, Novi, and Ypsilanti Twp. That's 23 of the 31 cities in Michigan with population over 50k. Not only does that not give any of these cities a chance to show as a top city, but it likely also buoys Detroit more than it deserves.

06/13/2018 - 3:22pm Did you read the article? I…

Did you read the article? I was on the same page with you before I read it. Horrible air quality, high crime rate, and high poverty rate (which I take issue with considering they aren't adjusting for cost of living, which is notoriously low in the mid-west).

They looked at the ~600 cities with a population of 50k (about the size of Battle Creek or Royal Oak) or more. Considering that they are looking at the bottom 1/12th, I'm not quite as shocked to see them on the list. I wouldn't think other cities like South Bend, Gainesville, Syracuse, or Salt Lake City would be on the list either, but someone has to be there.

06/13/2018 - 11:56am I think they are pretty…

I think they are pretty similar, but I prefer the new one. I'm actually kind of disappointed that they stayed on Drupal for the new, though, which makes all of this effort basically just for a reskin. A few bugs have been fixed, a few got copied over, but the site is basically what it was with seemingly no thought to improving the layout of the site.I guess when they said they hired an outside firm to help them, I got my hopes up for something that would make this place look a little more like a professional blog rather than a side project.

06/04/2018 - 10:08am Honestly, I find the idea of

Honestly, I find the idea of a 24-second shot clock to be a major issue for Beilein's system as well. He had to change his system up when college went from 35 to 30. I'm not saying that he couldn't do it, but it would take a season or 2. Then, throw in the fact that he's not going to be the GM and have full control over the roster, which he'd probably want in order to implement his system. It just seems like he'd be at least 2-3 years away from a playoff contender in every aspect. 

06/04/2018 - 10:05am I could understand picking us

I could understand picking us to lose @ND, @MSU, @OSU, and vs. Wisconsin. Maybe you throw PSU in there because of last year, although I counter that with the previous year and PSU losing a lot. So, on top of those 5, I struggle to see where you get 2 more losses between WMU, SMU, Nebraska, @NW, Maryland, @Rutgers, Indiana. Our defense alone will probably outscore most of those teams.

Look at last year's schedule. Even if you think that this year's team will be worse than last year, you've already got 4 of the 5 losses and the 5th is trading a loss @ND for the win over Florida. You could point to Indiana, but we get them at home instead of on the road. I suppose you could look at Purdue because that game was such a fluke for O'Korn. That's literally the only way to get to 7 losses based on last year's schedule unless you think that Michigan will be worse this year.

06/01/2018 - 1:01pm So, the metric should be QBR

So, the metric should be QBR in the 4th quarter while down 14 points or less or something along those lines.

06/01/2018 - 12:31pm Your hand-picked statistic

Your hand-picked statistic shows that he tends to throw more in games they are losing rather than them losing games in which he happens to throws more.

06/01/2018 - 12:24pm Yea, the Ecosport. I was

Yea, the Ecosport. I was going to mention that one too, but when googling it, I saw it referenced as an SUV. It's basically going to be the Fiesta of Ford SUVs.

06/01/2018 - 9:31am Not quite. They're going to

Not quite. They're going to continue making the Mustang.

05/16/2018 - 5:06pm Harbaugh could win 10-11

Harbaugh could win 10-11 games annually never beating OSU, winning a B1G championship, or making the (4-team) playoff and I'd still want him as our coach for however long he wants.

05/15/2018 - 12:49pm The front and back are meant

The front and back are meant to crumple in very specific ways to absorb the force. The passenger area is meant to remain rigid to protect the passengers. The idea is to remove as much force on the passengers as possible as that's how you get whiplash and whatnot.

05/08/2018 - 1:27pm I've been thinking the same

I've been thinking the same thing and was wondering if the relative lack of content for a few days was indicative of final touches on the coming upgrade.

04/19/2018 - 1:16pm As I mentioned in another

As I mentioned in another comment, you could give the team the option of doing an onside kick similar to PAT or 2pt conversion. You could also give them a 4th and 10 at the 40 situation like has been suggested before.

04/17/2018 - 12:13pm Or, allow a team to elect to

Or, allow a team to elect to do an onside kick similar to electing to go for 2.

04/17/2018 - 12:11pm I'd rather they just get rid

I'd rather they just get rid of the kick off, give the team the ball at the 25, and skip the extra commercial break.

04/02/2018 - 1:22pm Right. If people want to see

Right. If people want to see how we win this game, look at the BTCG. If people want to see how to lose this game, look at the other two games against Purdue.

04/02/2018 - 1:13pm If you look at only quality

If you look at only quality opponents during the regular season, we shot 35.6% from 3 and 52.7% from 2.

03/29/2018 - 2:12pm When Beilein started here,

When Beilein started here, Martin was the AD and Lloyd Carr was the head football coach.

03/19/2018 - 3:12pm UNC lost everything to UVA in

UNC lost everything to UVA in their tournament, so the only thing they might have had was from beating Lipscomb. TAMU also lost everything in their tournament, so the only thing they should have right now is whatever Providence and Lipscomb had to start the tournament. UVA lost to UMBC and UMBC lost to KSU, so KSU has all of the ACC's territory from before the tournament.

Basically, the conference champions will control the entire map and it will slowly consolidate into one team controlling the country.

03/19/2018 - 3:07pm My thoughts exactly.

My thoughts exactly. Everything from Kentucky, KSU, Nevada, Loyola, and FSU will make the map about 80% ours.

03/19/2018 - 1:33pm Except that's 6 tournaments.

Except that's 6 tournaments.

03/19/2018 - 1:28pm There is apparently another

There is apparently another video of him comforting Devin, but I haven't actually seen it yet.

03/19/2018 - 12:44pm Not really. Using Torvik for

Not really. Using Torvik for only games in the tournament…

Here would be the ranking:

  1. Clemson
  2. Villanova
  3. Duke
  4. Texas A&M
  5. West Virginia
  6. Florida St.
  7. Purdue
  8. Michigan
  9. Kentucky
  10. Nevada
  11. Syracuse
  12. Kansas
  13. Kansas St.
  14. Gonzaga
  15. Texas Tech
  16. Loyola Chicago

The problem is that you forget that Houston was the toughest 6 seed. Texas Tech played the same seeds as us, with us having the harder 6 seed, and we performed 4 points better than them and 2 points worse in the respective games. Gonzaga scraped by OSU AND UNCG. Loyola needed TWO buzzer beaters to win. Yet, all of them are ranked above Michigan in the article.

The other problem with this is that it doesn't take into account any of the regular season data. We're also dealing with a very small sample size because we're trying to look at "trends" from the tournament. If you take into account the last 10 games (compromise between only tournament and full season), the list would look like this:

  1. Duke
  2. Villanova
  3. Michigan
  4. Kentucky
  5. Kansas
  6. Gonzaga
  7. West Virginia
  8. Clemson
  9. Purdue
  10. Kansas St.
  11. Texas Tech
  12. Loyola
  13. Texas A&M
  14. Syracuse
  15. Nevada
  16. Florida St.

And you can all look at Kenpom or whichever metric you favor for the full season. The point is that the list is based on nothing but feelings. Michigan didn't perform nearly as poorly compared to realistic expectations as most seem to think. Obviously, we still need to play better if we expect to be Texas A&M, but we'd still be expected to beat half the remaining field playing how we've been playing.

03/15/2018 - 9:35am The numbers suggest 2 every 3

The numbers suggest 2 every 3 years.

03/12/2018 - 4:24pm Villanova and Virginia are

Villanova and Virginia are the undisputed top 2 and haven't seen any metrics to justify picking someone else in those brackets.

538 and Sagarin's recent index both give Kansas the slight edge over Duke, but Sagarin's other 3 measures and every other index pick Duke. So, I'm picking Duke.

Most seem to have picked UNC over Xavier. The problem that I see is that, if you use recent ratings, Michigan has been performing better than UNC. Using Torvik over the last 10 games, Torvik over the last month, or Sagarin's recent index, Michigan is expected to beat UNC and the winner of that game is almost always expected to get to the Final 4. In fact, any model that I've put together that picks Michigan over UNC reaching the Final 4 also has the winner beating Virginia.

I keep separating Michigan being the favorite from them actually being picked to win because I'm using % chance to reach a round, i.e. the product of all of the win probabilities to reach that round. North Carolina has such an easy path compared to us that even when Michigan is predicted to win the game by a slight edge, the 50% chance of Michigan making it to the sweet 16 weighs them down. The moral of the story is that if Michigan makes it to the Sweet 16, there is a very good chance that Michigan beats North Carolina. To justify this take, though, you need to weigh recent games more heavily than early season games.

tl;dr: I'm probably picking Villanova, Virginia, Duke, and Michigan.

03/05/2018 - 3:16pm I have a hard time saying we

I have a hard time saying we are "cemented in at a #3 seed". We are 13 in RPI, which puts us at a 4 seed in the ranking that the committee looks at. We've also finished our season while others could still go on tournament runs like we went on. I don't think Nevada or URI could pass us, but the Pac12 going according to chalk could result in Arizona passing us. Any of the Big12 teams in that 19-24 range could pass us too. I think we will likely get a 3-seed, but I think we still need a bit of luck to cement us there.

02/21/2018 - 9:04am I'm only going from memory

I'm only going from memory here, but I remember the blatant referee fuck ups amounting to the score differential. There was that block, there was an uncalled goaltending on them, and they had a guy who had two 3pt shots after his 5th foul.

02/11/2018 - 11:41pm Side judge, back judge, field

Side judge, back judge, field judge, line judge, center judge...

01/11/2018 - 11:01pm If Pep leaves, we'll need one

If Pep leaves, we'll need one more.

01/10/2018 - 2:58pm To me, that is an indicator

To me, that is an indicator that there is an unofficial part to the negotiation that he will immediately get bumped to OC once Pep leaves, but they don't want to do it until that's official.

12/06/2017 - 9:05am Speight was still better than

Speight was still better than O'Korn. Even if we had Peters starting in the MSU, Wisconsin and OSU games, I think we win them. Saying we would get to 11 wins isn't that much of a stretch from this year considering that we will be returning almost the entire team.

11/21/2017 - 3:03pm Usually, top contracts will

Usually, top contracts will have pay increases based on achievements, e.g. winning the BTCG requires him to be the highest paid coach in the conference and winning the NCG requires him to be the top paid coach in the country. I've not seen any contracts that require the coach's salary to be adjusted regardless of results.

11/17/2017 - 9:22am I haven't had smoke ring, but

I haven't had smoke ring, but with everything else, I agree whole-heartedly. Shark's is the best I've had in Michigan. Lockhart's and Woodpile are ok if it's convenient.

11/09/2017 - 12:07pm They were too busy to

They were too busy to dedicate enough time to get it out by then. They want to do it right, so they took extra time and it sounds like after the season is done they'll release it.

10/18/2017 - 4:28pm Correct call

  1. Correct call
  2. Initiates from side and doesn't put the player on the ground. Good no call.
  3. McKeon initiates contact. From the BJ's perspective, it would look like he was blocking downfield. There's a bit of jersey grabbing, but O'Korn bails from the pocket before McKeon stops driving and actually tries to make his cut. I'd say it's probably a good no call. Had O'Korn stayed in the pocket, I might call the holding after he makes the break.
  4. Judgement call.
  5. Technically, this is the correct call, but this is a judgement call. I wouldn't argue against this either way. The problem is that you need to make the call when the foul happens. You can't tell where the ball is going to be thrown and if that were overthrown to where he could just get his fingers on it, everyone would be yelling about the missed holding call.
  6. Correct call.
  7. Missed call, like you said. While I want to say that this is a bad throw and shouldn't be PI as to not bail the offense out, that obviously isn't how it works.
  8. Same as 5.
  9. I'll take your word for it. When the rest of the receivers go deep, this is no man's land and is often going to be missed.
  10. Missed call. Umpire gets hit from behind as the block is happening. Should get called, but he's the one who needs to call it.
  11. Missed call. Needs to be called but no one wants to because it's not until you have replay to show how the offense gains an advantage out of this. Had the flag been thrown and the ball gone to another player, Indiana would be losing their mind about their guys just running routes. I do wish that this was a point of emphasis for more consistency.
  12. Correct call.

I think I disagreed with you on three of them. Two no calls, a good call, and a bad call turned into a good call and three judgement calls that I would credit as good calls whether he throws the flag or not. Based on that, I see 4 good calls, 4 missed calls. 

10/18/2017 - 3:19pm You don't have to be moving

You don't have to be moving laterally, just not toward the line. The 1 second rule is for setting the offense in general. The entire offense must remain set for 1 second before the snap with the exception of a single man in motion. If you have someone move toward the line or have more than one person go in motion at the same time, then you need to reset for 1 second before snapping.

10/04/2017 - 12:34pm Not really. Resisting implies

Not really. Resisting implies there is an impulse to begin with. The thought of hitting someone (regardless of gender) as an option shouldn't exist to begin with. It's like someone trying to quit smoking. Generally, they are going to have to resist the impulse to light a cigarette. With someone who has never smoked, there wouldn't even be an impulse to begin with.

09/22/2017 - 11:00am DPJ just got shoved into a

DPJ just got shoved into a starting role on offense and is the starting punt returner. Taking him out of practice on offense to do more special teams seems less than ideal. I'd be fine if they put McDoom back there, but I assume that he has issues handling the catch or something if he's not already back there.