together again for the first time [Bryan Fuller]

Unverified Voracity Got That Email, Too Comment Count

Brian November 6th, 2018 at 12:34 PM

Wouldn't it be nice. Rivals already published a slightly altered version of an email we received from an established insider, but hell we got it too: per Someone Who Would Know, Shea Patterson is planning on returning for his senior year. He's likely to submit his name to the draft committee for an evaluation, get a mid-round grade, and return.

As this space mentioned a couple weeks back, he's in the heart of the distribution of guys for whom a return makes sense even when the criteria are strictly financial bottom line stuff: draftable but with first round upside if he can just refine his reads.

If that does come to pass Michigan's offense will return every major contributor except Karan Higdon, Juwann Bushell-Beatty, and Grant Perry. A senior Patterson throwing to Collins, DPJ, Martin, Black, and Gentry could be something.

The road to 800. Andrew Kahn goes back in the Beilein archive:

58c_lemoyne

Beilein coaching during a Le Moyne game (Photo: Le Moyne College Athletics)

No. 100

Beilein started his coaching career at Newfane (New York) High School before moving on to Erie Community College, where he won 75 games over four seasons, and Nazareth College (one season, 20 wins). Staying in Western New York, Beilein was hired at Le Moyne College before the 1983-84 season. On Dec. 3, the Dolphins earned their fifth win of that season and Beilein's 100th, beating visiting Bloomsburg State 66-58.

Though the arena was only half full, the 1,000 fans who witnessed win No. 100 were "boisterous" according to the Le Moyne student newspaper. Bloomsburg's star player, Barry "Slam" Francisco, missed a dunk late in the first half, "the crowd got on his case, and he played poorly the rest of the game."

Various other milestones are detailed. Beilein goes for win #800 against Norfolk State.

Which is tonight! Basketball season tips off for real against a MEAC team. Here is a one sentence summary of the MEAC from UMHoops:

Norfolk State didn’t win a Division I game until December 30th, but went on to finish 11-5 in the MEAC.

8:30 on BTN.

[After THE JUMP: around the league]

Basketball: tippin' off. Views from around the Big Ten:

At Illinois, near-total roster turnover meets touted recruit Ayo Dosunmu. The Champaign Room would like the team to "make [them] feel alive again," which uh good luck. Their optimistic projection is 9th. At least their nonconference schedule will help the league's SOS.

At Indiana, patience is running short in [checks notes] Archie Miller's second year:

Then, thanks to rampant rules violations at the University of Louisville, Miller landed the highest-touted recruit since Damon Bailey donned the cream and crimson. The best part about landing Romeo Langford for most Indiana fans? He’s an Indiana kid.

In fact, seven players on the 2018-19 roster are from Indiana.

You’ve got your coach. You’ve got your Indiana kids. What’s left to do but win?

The window could be short, though, as Romeo Langford is a one-and-done and Juwan Morgan’s eligibility lapses at the end of this season. Sure, Keion Brooks and Trayce Jackson-Davis might commit to wearing candystripes, but there’s no guarantee. What Indiana basketball has in front of it as the 2018-19 campaign is set to begin is a single opportunity to prove the fans right or wrong.

It’s been 20 years since Indiana fans had all that they wanted — a top-notch coach and a roster full of Indiana kids. You’ve got it now. If they don’t win, you should shut up.

At Michigan State, the Big Ten title runs through… Matt McPoyle McQuaid!

A repeat Big Ten title could run through…Matt McQuaid. There, I said it. And you know what else? I BELIEVE IT.

And sure, if he can be consistent with his shooting that would be nice. More so, I’m talking about his defense. McQuaid is the best defender on this team, and he’ll be tasked with stopping the likes of Purdue’s Carsen Edwards, Indiana’s Romeo Langford and Michigan’s Charles Matthews to name a few.

McQuaid putting the clamps on his guy in those big games could be the difference in raising another banner or not.

I find predictions of a MSU regular season title entirely baffling!

At Northwestern, a new building. Maybe it can play point guard.

At Penn Statewait what now

Like Jay-Z, I’ve officially come back from retirement* to marvel at Penn State’s meaningless** exhibition game against the preseason No. 13 West Virginia Mountaineers. The Nittany Lions started out strong, commanding a 12-point halftime lead, then answering every Mountaineer run in the second half with one of their own. The game ended on a Josh Reaves tipped shot to close out an exciting, back and forth affair that did not feel like an exhibition.

I had no idea you could play a D-I team in an exhibition. I further had no idea that Penn State could not get laughed off the court by the rootin' tootin' Huggin-est team in all the land. Someone named MYLES DREAD scored 23 points! Is everyone in the conference suddenly regretting this was an exhibition? Yes. Could Penn State be good even without Tony Carr? Maybe! 

At Purdue, Ryan Cline is going to be this year's really annoying Purdue sharpshooter. Expectations seem modest for the Boilers, with most Hammer and Rail folks predicting a bid and a seed between 6 and 10.

Rutgers: no.

Related item about my skepticism in re: MSU basketball this season. I was poking around various teams on Bart Torvik's site to familiarize myself with the league, and there's something ominous lurking for MSU fans: production from their projected stars against high-quality opponents. Winston and Ward went off a cliff last year when MSU played a top-50-quality team.

Winston:

image

Ward:

image

When Winston and Ward got put in tougher situations against better defenses their efficiency plummeted. This doesn't happen to all players. Michigan's stars were pretty consistent, as was Josh Langford. Winston's assist rate stayed high; his three-point shooting, which is almost all assisted (84%) went off a cliff.

If Winston's unable to get off threes by himself, who's creating those shots for him? Langford? Ward? Probably not. Goins and McQuaid, who had 10% and 13% usage last year? I'm skeptical Winston's going to be able to touch his 50% three point shooting from last year.

Ohio State ditches RPOs? That's apparently what happened against Nebraska:

If the RPO, the run-pass option, has actually been banished from the Buckeyes offense after this 36-31 win over Nebraska, Prince and his fellow offensive linemen kicked it out the door, threw its suitcase in the gutter, called it a name and wished it good riddance.

And the Ohio State running backs stood on the porch and nodded in agreement.

"Honestly," running back Mike Weber said, "we didn't have any reads today. I think it was just give the ball to the running back and let him make a play." 

This is being credited for the OSU run game's breakout against Nebraska, the #92 rush D in S&P+. There might be a little something to that as OSU struggled to run against Purdue and Minnesota, but I'd rather have OSU try to man up and run it down Michigan's throat than run a bunch of RPOs.

Draft items. Matt Miller has Gary and Winovich in his latest first round. Gary at #9:

Gary is a top-tier athlete at 6'5" and 280 pounds with the agility and coordination to often play on the edge of the Michigan defense. He's versatile and powerful, and he has room to still improve once in the pros while having enough Day 1 ability to see the field immediately.

    Winovich at #31:

    Chase Winovich is impossible to miss on the field with his long hair and relentless motor. He's a thick rusher who most likely projects best standing up at the next level, where his athleticism and instincts can beat offenses. For the Rams, he's an excellent fit playing outside the monsters in the middle.

      No Devin Bush.

      Kentucky exists now. Mark Stoops has been hitting Ohio heavily and it's paid off with the most functional Kentucky football team in a generation:

      As to Stoops’ plan, Kentucky’s roster features 27 players from Ohio.

      That includes stars such as running back Benny Snell Jr. (Westerville), linebackers Jordan Jones (Youngstown) and Chris Oats (Cincinnati), tight end C.J. Conrad (LaGrange), wide receivers Lynn Bowden Jr. (Youngstown) and Dorian Baker (Cleveland Heights), safeties Darius West (Lima) and Mike Edwards (Cincinnati) and offensive lineman George Asafo-Adjei (West Chester).

      “When you think about the players on that roster from that state,” Georgia coach Kirby Smart marveled this week, “it’s amazing.” …

      After all, if not for him, those Ohio Wildcats would, more likely than not, be Ohio Spartans or Ohio Hawkeyes or Ohio Boilermakers.

      That's not good news for the Big Ten's middle class.

      Etc.: Mark Richt going the Bowden route. Ohio State basketball loses their #2 big on the eve of the season. Duncan Robinson might be back in the NBA pretty soon. Chengelis. Rodger Sherman on the Durkin fiasco. There is an 0.1% chance a 5-7 Northwestern team is in the Big Ten title game.

      Comments

      northernmich

      November 6th, 2018 at 12:54 PM ^

      Patterson coming back next year would be just awesome, but McCaffery would need to get his share of reps to keep him happy and stay around. Also, if Devin Bush does happen to return (not likely, but maybe) I hope we can get plenty of reps for Jordan Anthony, he was a stud in HS and i’d like for him to the next big time LB in Don Brown’s scheme.

      DrMantisToboggan

      November 6th, 2018 at 1:22 PM ^

      I think he will wait it out - he's a determined kid and he's already seen the field. He'll keep his redshirt this year, and I wouldn't be surprised is McCaffrey went pro after a successful 2020 season as a redshirt junior.

      2019 Depth: Shea (Sr.) - DM (RS So.) - JM (RS Fr.)

      2020 Depth: DM (RS Jr.) - JM (RS So.) - Cade (RS Fr.)

      2021 Depth: JM (RS Jr.) - Cade (RS So.) - Harrison Bailey (RS Fr.)

      EGD

      November 6th, 2018 at 2:45 PM ^

      Plus, I don't see what Patterson's decision really has to do with Milton.  Even if Patterson leaves, Milton is probably going to still be backing up McCaffrey next year anyway.  And if Milton does pass McCaffrey, then the same analysis applies as to McCaffrey: transferring would cost him a year anyway, so he may as well stay at M.

      Mongo

      November 6th, 2018 at 4:38 PM ^

      That is a very good pipeline of QB talent and growth potential.  Shea coming back next year would be awesome.  We would just need to find a Higdon replacement ... who is not yet apparent in the RB room.  Unless Evans bulks up like Higdon did this past offseason, not sure he can gain the same yards after contact and be good in pass pro.  Higdon really stepped-up his game this year to be an every-down back.

      BuckNekked

      November 6th, 2018 at 4:59 PM ^

      You guys really need to stop putting every half way decent Michigan player in the pros early. Hudson isnt going pro. Bush may not. Gary is a different sort and who knows what he and his mother are thinking. Patterson may be staying. Gentry isnt leaving. 

      Everyone of these guys have had multiple posters in numerous threads going pro early. Just stop with it will ya? Let the cards fall where they may. Weve already seen stupid speculations piss off one players family.

      TrueBlue2003

      November 6th, 2018 at 5:54 PM ^

      Eh, when he committed, could he have really thought McCaffrey would be done after just three years?  Cuz that's the only way he could have played in year three anyway.

      He might leave, but I'd be surprised if he left just to sit out a year and then maybe play a year earlier somewhere else.

      Either way, I would expect McNamara to be ready by 2021 if Milton isn't around.  Would be a bummer not to see that tantalizing talent, but future is bright at QB for M.

      youn2948

      November 7th, 2018 at 4:20 PM ^

      I think Milton stays as he was a project QB who probably figured his shot at Stardom was to be refined over the course of a few years of hard work under Harbaugh.

      The fact he's already been in the game should speak wonders, or be a slap to Peters.  I really hope our offense hasn't broke Peters and he is a servicable backup greatly improved in case Shea gets crams for a meaningful series or something.

      northernmich

      November 6th, 2018 at 1:10 PM ^

      Yeah I see your point, and yes I see Peters leaving too. I’ve been wondering where would be some possible landing spots for him? He’s from Indiana, but I’m not sure regarding transfer restrictions where he would be allowed to go, but maybe Indiana, Kentucky maybe? Or is he gonna go the MAC school route and put up huge numbers to get looks at the NFL. I’d love him up here at CMU torching the MAC, the QBs on that roster wouldn’t even start at Ferris or GV.

      ypsituckyboy

      November 6th, 2018 at 12:54 PM ^

      Cassius Winston's shooting form is butt, kinda like how Zak Irvin's was. I think they both struggled against good teams for the same reasons. Here's my three-part hypothesis.

      (1) He's not particularly fast, so defenders can play him tight; (2) he starts his motion low; (3) his release isn't fast. The result is either a sped-up or highly contested shot against a close defender. That equals a lower shooting percentage.

       

      stephenrjking

      November 6th, 2018 at 12:55 PM ^

      Shea coming back? That would be... really good news. I consider it a foregone conclusion that one of our QBs (I think I know which one) will transfer after this year. I guess my only concern there is that a second guy might get tired of waiting in line. Hopefully not a big deal, but it's the modern age and Clemson and Georgia are just shedding guys left and right. 

      I still think Shea might get a late statistical bump from bigger games and reconsider. It's a weak-ish QB class this year and all it takes is another NFL team deciding to draft its QB of the future and he can go in the first round, grade or not.

      But... if he came back...

      My 2019 worry was D Line, but the young guys have been forced to produce this year and they look good. We've got Ambry waiting to step up at CB; get one of Hill or Long back and our secondary remains impenetrable. Even if Bush goes (as I expect, but what if it's not a sure thing?) our D looks good to stay in the top 5. And our offense.. wow.

      Ok ok stop thinking about that. Beat Rutger.

      Wolverine15

      November 6th, 2018 at 1:02 PM ^

      The biggest difference between Michigan and the Clemson/Georgia situations is that their QBs won the starting jobs as freshmen, essentially guaranteeing that the upperclassman backup would never start again. McCaffrey would be a RS Junior starter, giving him 2 years to cobble together NFL tape, which is more than enough.

      stephenrjking

      November 6th, 2018 at 1:40 PM ^

      No idea. It's hard to know anything about guys below Ambry because we have three guys that are amazing and Ambry who should be great--nobody else has a chance to see the field.

      I confess I'm mildly concerned about our recruited depth at that position, but I was concerned about the same thing on the DL and it's turning out fine. 

      EGD

      November 6th, 2018 at 3:14 PM ^

      Arguably the main difference between some of the blue chip CBs we've had in recent seasons and some of the 3-star types has been how quickly they are able to contribute.  Lewis, Hill, and Long were all playable as true freshmen and started as sophomores.  Guys like Jeremy Clark and Brandon Watson weren't really ready to contribute until very late in their careers (years 4-5).

      If M were to return at least one of Hill or Long, they'd be in great shape with Ambry at the other CB spot and probably Sims as the third CB.  But if Hill and Long both go, then you're probably looking at Ambry and Sims to start and need to find a third corner out of third-year (Benjamin St. Juste, JKP) and second-year (Gray, Green) guys and true freshmen.  Certainly not impossible but M would need at least one of their young CBs to develop more quickly than comparable recruits have in the past.

      outsidethebox

      November 6th, 2018 at 3:37 PM ^

      The DL will not skip a beat...will likely be even better...a year of growth, experience and maturity is huge here...and this applies to the OL as well! Hutch will equal Gary and Uche and Paye equal Winovich...and Mone leaves but the rest of the DTs will just be better. I do not believe there is a more sure-fire in-coming 2019 (in the nation) than Daxton Hill-he is that elite of a talent. All that and the two-deep will continue to be better than the previous year.

      TrueBlue2003

      November 6th, 2018 at 6:13 PM ^

      Shea or no Shea, the offense next year is shaping up to be downright dominant.  Coming into this season, we were breaking in a QB new to the system, still relatively young at WR, and major question marks on the OL.

      Took a bit to gel this year but this offense is now impressive and should be much better next year considering it would be the best interior line in the country, a returning (good!) LT, some options to select from at RT. Add in those WRs in year three? TEs galore. Hoooboy.

      This season is a bit of a pleasant surprise in terms of exceeding expectations thus far.  Next season the expectations will likely start sky high and anything but a B1G title and a win in at least the semis of the CFP could be a disappointment.  And who knows, maybe some unexpected guys return with unfinished business (both of the CBs? Hudson? Bush?...GARY?!).

      Autostocks

      November 6th, 2018 at 1:00 PM ^

      Totally confused, Brian.  If getting paid is so important, why would Shea stay for another year?  Even if he's a mid-rounder, he still gets paid, right?  And he doesn't get paid at Michigan, or not near enough according to you, so why would he stay if the value proposition of a scholarship and playing at Michigan is so poor?

      Gene

      November 6th, 2018 at 1:11 PM ^

      Because by staying he can (potentially) be paid much more after next year, more than making up the difference of not getting paid for another year. Sure, if getting paid ASAP is the goal he would leave this year. But the thinking is that by staying he can increase his draft stock sufficiently that he would be getting paid much more next year (and beyond) than if he started getting paid this year.