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Date Title Body
12/05/2018 - 8:20am No no no. He completely ties…

No no no. He completely ties up the floor on offense, and eliminates the possibility of switch everything on defense. Davis’s lack of athleticism is not a fit for this scheme and you can tell the rest of the team doesn’t trust it either. They don’t want to put the ball in his hands and opponents don’t respect his ability off the pick and roll or (obviously) shooting from the outside, so the offense changes entirely when he’s in.

The sets we ran with Davis on the floor were some motions early in the shot clock that never worked and then just iso’d Poole/Z/Matthews which isn’t a great possession. He can’t see meaningful minutes going forward. We’ve work in Johns or Castleton - at least then we can run similar offensive sets to what we do with Teske.

11/28/2018 - 1:39pm Sam's opinions on stay/go…

Sam's opinions on stay/go right now:

Leaving: Bush, Long, Hill

Staying: Hudson, Metellus, Gentry, Bredeson

Unclear: Shea

11/19/2018 - 5:07pm The only value there would…

The only value there would be if he knows of potential offensive wrinkles that they practiced while he was at OSU that have not been put on film yet. I doubt that's much if anything significant. There aren't a whole lot of secrets with OSU's offense at this point, they've needed to put a lot on film just to pull out wins.

11/14/2018 - 11:03am I really wish the schools…

I really wish the schools could come to an agreement to always have both teams wear their home jersey's in this game. There is no color conflict and they are two of college football's absolute classics. USC and UCLA do it, no reason why we couldn't.

11/09/2018 - 10:16am I will be there. This feels…

I will be there. This feels more like going to a concert than a sporting event. The main event is traveling in from out of town, you'll be there with a bunch of other local fans for one night only, and you know exactly what you're gonna get, risk free. It'll be fun and easy, and for that it's worth the money.

11/06/2018 - 1:01pm Shea!! Please be true!

Shea!! Please be true!

11/06/2018 - 10:54am The Hackenberg needs to be a…

The Hackenberg needs to be a category as an ode to the 2015 Penn State/Temple game.

Temple won that opener 27-10 on the back of 10 sacks. If you give up as many or more sacks than points you score, that's a Hackenberg.

Michigan was close to a Hackenberg against PSU last weekend with five sacks. Only allowing a sad field goal would have done it, however the late TD slightly eclipsed that mark.

11/05/2018 - 2:01pm The primary goal of sports…

The primary goal of sports books is to maximize revenue, not to create even money on each side of a line. They mitigate risk by having efficient lines, but efficient lines do not always create equal money which is fine by them, as the real downside they need to protect against is large single bets from sharps that hammer an inefficency.

Lets look at the Purdue/MSU line from a couple weeks ago. Public money was heavy, heavy on Purdue. They'd come off the big OSU win and MSU had just been blown out by Michigan. Play-by-play modeling still showed MSU as a better team than Purdue which the sharps understood, yet the large majority of money bet on that game was on Purdue getting about a point and a half by kickoff. The line barely moved all week, only slightly in Purdue's favor, because the books didn't see any sharps making strong Purdue bets. We all know what happened.

Over time, the books will follow the sharps who are betting with much better information than the public, fade the public, and make more money than if they were just creating even money with lines. Efficient lines maximize revenues for them becuase sports books are the ultimate exercise in sample size. If the public wants to take one side of an efficient line that the sharps are keeping in check, the book will win that more often than not.

11/05/2018 - 1:18pm Line moves of that magnitude…

Line moves of that magnitude are relatively unusual but definitely happen with at least some regularity.

The biggest pieces of public misinformation out there on lines is that 1) big fanbases affect lines, and 2) the only goal of sports books is to even out money on both sides.

On 1 - if that were true, then over a large sample size the teams of the biggest fanbases would have to underperform the spread because of biases from the betting public. That is not borne out in the data at all. OSU and Alabama have (shocker) been some of the best performers against the spread in the last decade, and BYU has underperformed against the spread despite their fanbase largely abstaining from betting. There is zero emperical evidence to support fanbase size having any affect on lines whatsoever.

2 - This firm message board belief is the most frustrating trope out there for me personally and I've given up trying to correct people every time I see it posted, but it's just wrong. Sports books lines when released are accurate as to how they think the game will play out per the advanced statistical models they use, and are slightly adjusted in week due to betting patterns. The adjustments come more from large single bets (aka "The Sharps") than from large numbers of small bets that make up volume (aka "The Public"). The people who make a living betting on sports are very good at what they do, pay for insider connections within many, many programs, and run some of the best proprietary models out there to predict scores (and of course take note of models like S&P+). If there is an inefficient line, the sharps will *hammer* that quickly and leave the books very exposed. That's why you usually see big line shifts either quickly after a line is released or right before games are played, which is almost exclusively when sharps lay their bets. Changes in the middle of the week tend to be smaller, and are just slight scale adjustments coming from small volume bets from the public. Make no mistake, the books will take the public's money if the public is being dumb. The sharps are never being dumb. The overall volume of money is RARELY 50/50, and the books know what they're getting into.

It's a smart idea to take note of early and late line shifts. Mid week shifts are pretty inconsequential. If you see a line bet in one way both right after the spread is released and right before the game, that's a very nice sign for the team it's in favor of.

11/05/2018 - 12:02pm Good thing your made up…

Good thing your made up percentages mean nothing?

11/05/2018 - 11:49am I don't know what you guys…

I don't know what you guys are talking about. Lorenz post-visit thinks Michigan leads for Crouch, that Crouch prefers Michigan, that his mom/grandma were won over, and that the staff believes they will sign Crouch. He is close to a CB.

Wiltfong also thinks we now lead, though Crouch has yet to take his Clemson official.

11/01/2018 - 9:55am That's literally the only…

That's literally the only reason WTKA gives him a platform. 

10/25/2018 - 10:31am Spanellis and Herbert say…

Spanellis and Herbert say BELIEVE IT

 

Rested, Fresh, Healthy: bye week edition pic.twitter.com/CzaF3mCL7x

— Stephen Spanellis (@Big_Spanellis78) October 23, 2018
10/23/2018 - 11:06am If Auburn fires Gus both of…

If Auburn fires Gus both of these schools will be heavy after Brohm with cash. Tough for Purdue, though I could possibly see Brohm understanding the value of a weak Big Ten West and trying to stick it out through the Rondale Moore era to see what he can build. Definitely will be interesting.

10/22/2018 - 3:48pm The resume point is way down…

The resume point is way down the list. If we win out and win in Indy we're in the playoffs, period. Seed will depend on if Clemson and/or Notre Dame drops one. If we lose one more we'll max out at the Rose Bowl. Don't think transative wins and losses will have an impact.

I'd like to see Northwestern or Wisconsin more than Iowa or Purdue. Don't think either of the former teams would hang even close to us in a rematch, but the other two would potentially be a bit more dangerous (especially with playmakers like Purdue has on offense).

10/22/2018 - 11:55am About to be? They literally…

About to be? They literally are right now:

 

Mark Dantonio is 17-16 in his last 33 games and is 10-12 in Big Ten play in his last 22 league games. He’s 1-2 vs Michigan and 0-2 vs OSU during same time. Program in decline.

— Thomas Beindit (@tbeindit) October 21, 2018
10/12/2018 - 10:12am 1. The Michigan head…

1. The Michigan head coaching job isn't a charity case. I love Michigan too, but when you're in that position it's not enough. The fanbase rightly has performance expectations that he fell far short of while raking in a lifetime's chunk of change.

2. He should have cared for the players. Devin Gardner deserved far better than that 2014 effort, there was no fire and no creativity at all. Just a mailed in season from the start.

3. If he really Would Have Walked To Michigan, he should have cared for the school. Gamedays were a shell of their normal selves that year and he took a lot of the spirit away from the University that Harbaugh has since restored. Recruiting does nothing for that when you're outwitted on the field.

10/12/2018 - 10:04am D line coach for the panthers

D line coach for the panthers

10/10/2018 - 7:35am FYI it’s almost impossible…

FYI it’s almost impossible. There are only 14 actively flying blimps in the world and the cabins are tiny - only the crew fits in. There are more astronauts than blimp pilots. Washington Post says there are only 17 full time blimp pilots, 13 of whom work for Goodyear.

10/02/2018 - 4:24pm First no link, then freep…

First no link, then freep link, then EU-link, then unlinked-link. This is a pro style blog apparently.

Thanks for the summary though.

10/02/2018 - 4:21pm Maryland

Maryland

10/02/2018 - 3:24pm 6th in the Big Ten, which…

6th in the Big Ten, which needs to be emphasized. This is not a conference that can call OL a strength, either.

10/01/2018 - 10:04am Nothing more to add beyond…

Nothing more to add beyond emphasizing how actually insane these numbers are. I'm not a ref conspiracy guy but I DO believe there is something to the O'Neil crew having an internalized bias against Michigan and that this needs to be addressed by our AD with the conference. Clear statistical outlier when, if anything, they should be an outlier the other way given the strength of our DL.

09/27/2018 - 11:10am Count me as a fan. Thanks…

Count me as a fan. Thanks for Dax and weaponized Gentry, Sherron. Keep it up.

09/25/2018 - 11:34am So now Michigan football has…

So now Michigan football has an active rooting interest in a close NLCS to push us out of prime time. Sweet.

09/11/2018 - 4:57pm Pat has proven himself to be…

Pat has proven himself to be just another yelly meathead coach - playing football at a "smart" school in the 90s doesn't make you an enlightened individual.

09/06/2018 - 5:03pm It's the exhibition game and…

It's the exhibition game and a bottom barrel noncon on the day of the Rutgers game and other college football. Not a big deal.

09/01/2018 - 5:05pm I’ll rephrase - public money…

I’ll rephrase - public money is never unbalanced enough to move lines to this degree on the day of the game. The volume is already quite large and there wouldn’t be a major change in public betting patters on the day of. The pattern here clearly suggests sharps coming in with some decently sized cash on Michigan.

09/01/2018 - 4:50pm Public money doesn’t move…

Public money doesn’t move lines like this. Large individual bets move lines, especially really late in the game like this. It’s not public money, it’s some larger bets from professional guys.

09/01/2018 - 4:48pm Sounds like you don’t know,…

Sounds like you don’t know, my friend. Vegas lines these days are very efficient. If the books are off from what advanced, predictive stats tell big money bettors, they will get slammed. It’s not always about even money on both sides. The books will take the dumb public’s money if the public is being dumb. It’s about protecting major downside risk that would come by showing bad lines to professional bettors. Vegas lines are extraordinarily strong predictors of games on the whole (obviously not every time, but still), and this is good news for Michigan.

09/01/2018 - 4:42pm Generally the sharp, line…

Generally the sharp, line moving money comes in either right at the open or right before the game. This is a good sign for us that the big money bettors believe in a Michigan W.

08/30/2018 - 11:41am But could you imagine the…

But could you imagine the mayhem around here if we started 2-3.

08/27/2018 - 4:55pm Given the timing, my money…

Given the timing, my money is squarely on ragequit.

08/27/2018 - 4:52pm Given the actions of other…

Given the actions of other coaches in this conference who actually deserve that moniker, Scott Frost and his mom don't seem so bad to me anymore (unfortunately).

08/27/2018 - 1:38pm Over 6 but under 8. Loss at…

Over 6 but under 9. Loss at MSU will do it, that stretch is brutal. 8-4 type year while OSU goes to the playoff would cause a change in direction of this website.

That said, this piece is spot on. I have similar feelings to Brian.

08/27/2018 - 1:34pm Harbaugh still with no…

Harbaugh still with no comment on Durkin - straight up bad look. It's disappointing and he needs to talk about whether there were any concerns about his coaching style while he was at Michigan and Stanford, because Harbaugh employed him at two schools. Durkin should have been snuffed out of high level coaching a while before he facilitated the death of a player.

Harbaugh asked about allegations against DJ Durkin, Peppers' comments that he bordered on "bully coaching" when he was here. Harbaugh had nothing to say on the matter.

— Nick Baumgardner (@nickbaumgardner) August 27, 2018
08/24/2018 - 11:56am The Big Ten East will out…

The Big Ten East will out-scandal any division in college football. It's kind of insane actually - this doesn't even have anything to do with the Jordan McNair disaster and it's still worthy of widespread derision. What is wrong with the culture at these schools?

08/22/2018 - 5:12pm I don't think they'd be dumb…

I don't think they'd be dumb enough to do that. If the only person who gets fired coming out of this is the university President, who has now been reported to have actually stood up to imposing a punishment for a coach that covered up domestic violence, that's an incredibly bad look for OSU. They'd have found a way to make their PR storm even worse than just reinstating him immediately.

That said, I have no doubt that they'll still find a way to politically overpower Drake, because football is ultimately what matters there over anything else.

08/21/2018 - 11:49am How does quarterback BJ…

How does quarterback BJ Dickey not even receive an honorable mention in the 12 year old category?

08/20/2018 - 2:08pm We could play south carolina…

We could play south carolina twice in the noncon. Has that ever happened before with any opponent?

08/20/2018 - 1:34pm Unexpected boom

Unexpected boom

08/20/2018 - 1:32pm He said that Hudson is…

He said that Hudson is currently ahead and it's his opinion that Hudson will win the RT spot.

08/20/2018 - 10:01am This is a normal website…

This is a normal website. Find a new slant.

08/16/2018 - 11:34am Notre Dame was ordered in…

Notre Dame was ordered in February to vacate their wins from the 2012 and 2013 seasons, so they're actually not particlarly close. They now have 886 official wins and the 4th best all time winning percentage.

08/08/2018 - 1:38am Shutdown Fullcast…

Shutdown Fullcast impersonating resurrected Joe Jamail is the funniest bit in college football media.

08/03/2018 - 3:18pm Bob Stoops is not Urban…

Bob Stoops is not Urban Meyer. That'd be a downgrade for sure from a pure coaching/recruiting perspective.

08/03/2018 - 1:22pm They couldn't not hire a…

They couldn't not hire a firm to investigate. That's standard operating procedure for stuff like this.

08/02/2018 - 10:15am 1) prophet

2) this isn't…

1) prophet

2) this isn't now an actually anti-chicken eating website

08/01/2018 - 10:57am Of course not (new site…

Of course not (new site sucks). Anyways, here's a link to his tweet: https://twitter.com/ramzy/status/1024665540038721541?

It says: "Of course he knew. He knew he was an alcoholic, he knew his marriage was in shambles and he knew that his mentor's grandson was a terrible football coach and that he was protected because of bloodline. Literally everybody knew. I knew. I wrote around it for six years."

Writing around it when you knew is so, so indefensible.

08/01/2018 - 10:55am <blockquote class="twitter…

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Of course he knew. He knew he was an alcoholic, he knew his marriage was in shambles and he knew that his mentor&#39;s grandson was a terrible football coach and that he was protected because of bloodline. Literally everybody knew. I knew. I wrote around it for six years.</p>&mdash; Ramzy Nasrallah (@ramzy) <a href="https://twitter.com/ramzy/status/1024665540038721541?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 1, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 

Hoping this twitter embed works. REALLY weak from Ramzy.