Key Remaining B1G games

Submitted by canzior on October 22nd, 2018 at 3:43 PM

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I think Iowa winning this week is good, because Michigan beats a higher ranked opponent. 

As of right now NW leads the West at 4-1, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Purdue are 3-1. 

NW has a h2h win over Purdue (that Purdue wins without 2 really stupid personal fouls) and Wisconsin has the h2h over Iowa. 

Iowa and Wisconsin go to Purdue (Still expect them to lose at least one of these games)

Wisconsin is still the favorite to win the West. 

 

Hypothetically, who would you like to play most/least in Indy?

 

 

Comments

SAMgO

October 22nd, 2018 at 3:48 PM ^

The resume point is way down the list. If we win out and win in Indy we're in the playoffs, period. Seed will depend on if Clemson and/or Notre Dame drops one. If we lose one more we'll max out at the Rose Bowl. Don't think transative wins and losses will have an impact.

I'd like to see Northwestern or Wisconsin more than Iowa or Purdue. Don't think either of the former teams would hang even close to us in a rematch, but the other two would potentially be a bit more dangerous (especially with playmakers like Purdue has on offense).

victors2000

October 22nd, 2018 at 5:48 PM ^

Definitely Iowa.

Don't need no stinking rematch with Wisconsin, and don't want any part of Purdue; if Purdue wins the west, look out.

Not saying Iowa would be the easiest of the three, I like the idea of two relatively similar - minus the RPO - teams going at it. I think it would be an old school kind of game that I would find entertaining.

Unless we were losing, that wouldn't be so entertaining.

ijohnb

October 22nd, 2018 at 3:57 PM ^

This is not necessarily true.  I have done a review of the remaining schedules and see a few potential problems.

1. If LSU beat Alabama, that could be big trouble.  Alabama is getting in the playoff even if they have one loss and don't play in the SEC title game (and I really can't even complain about it, that much).  If they lose to LSU, and LSU runs the table including the SEC title game, we could get bounced.

2. Oklahoma worries me.  If they win out, I could see them posing a problem.

3.  Even ND, with one loss, would get a very favorable contrast with us due to the head to head.  (This seems unlikely though, because based on their remaining schedule, if they have a loss, it is going to be to a bad team and will likely be disqualifying).

We have a lot of winning left to do before it is even a possibility.  And there is likely another #chaosweek left to go.  However, while it would be unlikely that we could run the table and be left out, I think it is in the realm of possibility,

JPC

October 22nd, 2018 at 4:01 PM ^

People are going to raise hell if two SEC teams get in twice in a row. Once was fine because there was nobody else even remotely deserving. 

I think that if you have two perfectly identical teams vying for the 4th spot, one a second SEC team and one a team from a conference that's not already represented - the team not in the SEC gets picked. Even just for the optics of it. 

ijohnb

October 22nd, 2018 at 4:03 PM ^

I don't think people would be all up in arms about it.  The "fourth" team into the Playoff won the National Title last year.  The committee made it clear that they believe the criteria is the 4 best teams, regardless of conference/conference title games.

JPC

October 22nd, 2018 at 4:06 PM ^

Do you think that OSU would have gotten in, over the second SEC team, had they not been blown out late by Iowa? I absolutely think they would have because they were close to making it even after the loss. 

a Michigan that runs the table from here on out has a better resume than OSU did. 

 

Sione For Prez

October 22nd, 2018 at 5:01 PM ^

But OSU losing to Iowa was their 2nd loss of the year. If Michigan beats OSU they only would have had 1 loss. If OSU only had one loss (even in blowout fashion) last year I think they would have been in.

EDIT: I don't agree that OSU was that close to getting in over Bama last year due to having 2 losses. The committee set that precedent in 2016 by taking OSU over Penn State.

stephenrjking

October 22nd, 2018 at 4:52 PM ^

Bama isn't just the best for ten years. They look utterly unstoppable this year. Put Vanderbilt's uniforms on them and they'd still be runaway #1. The committee does (properly, I think) pay attention to how a team is playing in their wins and losses; a loss to a really good LSU team is not a terrible stain here.

And we know this, because our one loss is the best loss amongst playoff contenders by some distance right now. On the road, at night, to Notre Dame in the first game of the year. 

I think we're fine. But we lose the H2H comparison to ND (as we should) and there are SEC scenarios that are trouble. But we have a better schedule than Oklahoma and will remain that way. The Pac 12 is a nonfactor. There's almost certainly a spot for us.

Weird thought alert: I'll be annoyed if we win out and don't make the playoff, but I won't be devastated. We had a chance to beat ND and didn't; this year looks like an Alabama coronation. The important issue, to me, is establishing Michigan as a nationally elite team and holding that place. Being the first team out and going to (and hopefully winning) a Rose Bowl is an excellent season. And I'd have taken that option in a heartbeat the day after we lost to ND. 

But, before all that, let's win our next five games.

trueblueintexas

October 22nd, 2018 at 5:10 PM ^

This is one of the many things about Bama that really bugs me.

This is their schedule so far:

Louisville (2-5, 0-4)

Arkansas St (4-3, 1-2)

Ole Miss (5-3, 1-3)

Texas A&M (5-2, 3-1)

LA-Lafayette (3-4, 1-2)

Arkansas (2-6, 0-4)

Missouri (4-3, 0-3)

Tennessee (3-4, 1-3)

With The Citadel still remaining.

Other than A&M, all of these are really bad teams. Look at the collective conference records which is indicative of how well these teams perform against their peers (7-22). These are really bad teams. This year, Bama will basically have to play a really good game against LSU. That's it. Any other team sporting that easy of schedule would be talked about as iffy for making the playoff. 

As a reference point, look up Baylor & TCU's records from 2014 when both were leapfrogged by OSU the last week of the season to take the last spot in the playoffs.

 

BraveWolverine730

October 22nd, 2018 at 4:08 PM ^

I've seen this Alabama worry before and I just dont get it. CFP picks are inherently political. The SEC got 2 teams in because OSU had 2 losses. You're already probably leaving out 2 P5 conferences with ND getting in. No way they leave out 3 if there is a 1 loss conference title winner. Especially if it's a 7 pt road loss to a top 10 team.

 

I will admit I think Oklahoma might be a much more legitimate worry, so I think we only 96% control our own destiny vs 100%

The Maize Mafia

October 22nd, 2018 at 4:13 PM ^

I believe this is the key point. If anything, the SEC contenders should be rooting for a Notre Dame loss down the stretch because I think an undefeated ND team essentially ensures no conference will have two representatives (assuming there are at least two non-SEC one-loss conference championship teams). Given the scenario above, if Notre Dame is going to keep anyone out, it will be SEC West runner-up Alabama. 

canzior

October 22nd, 2018 at 4:11 PM ^

So...here's my take: 

Clemson has no good wins. They still get in, BUT they may win the conference without any quality wins which might seed them lower than expected. They are likely to finish the regular season with 1 ranked win.

ND's supposed tough schedule has been exposed. Stanford and USC are awful. VT got beat by ODU. They don''t play another ranked team this year. 

Oklahoma has 0 ranked wins, and 1 loss to Texas. They finish the year with WVU. 

Michigan will have a 7 point opening weekend loss to a top 3 team in the country. Wins over ranked Wisconsin, Michigan State, Penn St, Ohio St, plus the CCG might probably be the best in the country. 

LSU's schedule is falling apart, Auburn is a joke, and the Pac 12 isn't getting in. 

Bama winning out is best for everyone assuming the committee will continue to reward them whether they win or lose.  Now if Bama loses to LSU, and Florida beats Georgia, then FL beats LSU...I don't know if Florida gets in, but I think Bama still gets in. A la Penn St/OSU 2016.

Michigan wins out they get a 2 seed. Bama 1, Clemson 3, ND 4 (assuming they win out) 

This makes sense, because ND & Clemson will have beaten weaker schedules, even being undefeated, and they would avoid a Michigan/ND rematch and a Bama/Clemson IV in the first round. 

 

 

 

 

canzior

October 22nd, 2018 at 5:02 PM ^

I think it's possible. If you look at best 2 wins...3 wins...4 wins...5 wins... For each team, Michigan comes out on top. Committee says they'll excuse losses for tougher schedules. Clemson and ND (and OKLA) may all have 1 good win, but none will have even 3 wins over ranked teams. Michigan could have a top 15 team as it's 3rd best win. 

raleighwood

October 22nd, 2018 at 5:25 PM ^

I don't know.  Stanford was #7 when ND beat them.  VA Tech was #24 when ND beat them.  If Michigan continues to roll, ND would have a win over a current Top 5 team.  I just don't see an undefeated ND falling behind a team that it beat head-to-head (even if it was in Week 1).

ijohnb

October 23rd, 2018 at 10:09 AM ^

There are no scenarios where I see us being higher than the 4 seed without a loss by one of the top 3 teams as currently constructed.  For our chances to win it all, if we won out and got there, a Clemson loss would be awesome.  If everything else held that would be 1. Alabama v. 4. Oklahoma/Clemson and 2. ND v. 3. Michigan.

We could take ND out.

bluepalooza

October 22nd, 2018 at 7:31 PM ^

If there are football gods the playoffs would looks like this:

1. Alabama

2. Notre Dame

3. Michigan

4. Clemson

Love to settle score with ND and play one of the best 2 teams for the past several years. Not saying Michigan would win out, but can you imagine ratings with a Michigan vs Alabama final? Would set a record for viewers.

Bambi

October 22nd, 2018 at 4:43 PM ^

1) No they won't. A non SEC champ Bama last year almost got left out for a 2 loss OSU B1G champ that had a 31 point loss to Iowa. A non SEC champ Bama this year, which would only have a win over TAMU and no one else ranked, is not getting in over a 1 loss B1G champ Michigan with wins over potential ranked Wisky, PSU, OSU, B1G Title game, and maybe MSU, with the only loss being by a TD week 1 @ playoff ND. All things equal, the committee has shown that conference championships > all, so we'd get in.

2) Oklahoma, if they win out, will end this season with good wins over WVU and the Big-12 title game. Their loss will be to a non playoff Texas. We get in over that.

3) Committee has shown they don't care about H2H. OSU over PSU in 2016, Bama over Auburn last year. Undefeated ND is obviously in over us, 1 loss ND without a conference title game could go either way.

Kilgore Trout

October 22nd, 2018 at 4:24 PM ^

I think you are right on here. Michigan has a pretty easy case for the playoff with one loss and seems like a real stretch with two losses. I think we want ND to win out so our one loss stays as a quality loss and we don't get into a situation where Michigan and ND are competing for a single spot, because Michigan is probably not coming out on top of that. 

Personally, I'd say root for whatever gets Iowa or Purdue into the B1G championship game because rematches are boring, especially when you already beat those teams. 

s1105615

October 22nd, 2018 at 4:58 PM ^

Actually, Iowa beating PSU and winning the West would be better for UM (assuming they win) as a highly ranked opponent in the B1G Championship Game.  Better than beating Wisconsin again as they would likely be limping into that game based on tie-breakers.  Iowa's offense looks more coherent and in synch than Wisconsin's Taylor show, which they inexplicably abandoned last week in AA.  

If UM beats OSU in Columbus after rolling the rest of PSU, Indiana, and Rutgers it won't matter anyway, because if they win, they will have done everything they can by going undefeated in and winning the conference.  It honestly won't matter who they play in the Championship game, just being there would make 2018 a rousing success, and winning the Championship game would be icing on the cake, as would inclusion in the CFP.   

bdneely4

October 22nd, 2018 at 3:49 PM ^

I know I should care about all of our remaining games, but I don't.  Beat OSU and this will be a better season than 99% of the fans expected.  It will also change a wave that has been suffocating us for a decade since we get both OSU and MSU at home next year therefore more than likely being the favorite to win those games.

Go Blue!

enlightenedbum

October 22nd, 2018 at 3:54 PM ^

Preference for Big Ten title game:

1. Northwestern

2. Wisconsin

3. Purdue

4. Iowa

I think this is the year Ferentz has every three or four where they're randomly really, really good.  And New Kirk seems to be a thing.  He went for a 4th and 3 inside the 20 on Saturday.  Iowa's defense with a non-hyperconservative 4th down strategy is a strong team.  They should have beaten Wisconsin too and should be in the driver's seat.

Purdue is basically wanting no part of Rondale Moore.

FlexUM

October 22nd, 2018 at 3:56 PM ^

I hope that psu/iowa game is a hard fought, excessively physical battle of two teams beating the snot out of one another with psu coming up victorious in the end. Then send them to AA for an ass kicking. 

This  PSU game is so freaking critical. 

FlexUM

October 22nd, 2018 at 4:26 PM ^

You having a tough day? I apologize my take got you so riled up. 

Yes, I do believe now that Michigan has been rolling the psu game is exceedingly critical. This virtually guarantees a 10 win season, shot at the big ten champ and playoff. So, I agree, the last two games were critical but each time you win one the next means more a la psu.

Again, I apologize profusely, for my post. If you shoot me your email I'll run my posts by you before posting, cool?