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Date Title Body
11/05/2018 - 3:02pm I know most on this board…

I know most on this board don't shift to basketball mode until after the season, but I'm personally hoping for a 330 kick as basketball has a game at noon that day.

11/04/2018 - 11:30am There is actually a source…

There is actually a source that tracks inside the 40. Bill C's advanced stat pages keep track of "points per scoring opportunity" which is inside the opposition 40 yard line. He hasn't updated for this week's games yet, but coming into this week,  Michigan was at 4.63 pts per trip inside the 40, which is 67th in the country. So it is definitely something we can improve upon. 

Interestingly enough we actually struggle with that on defense as well (4.58 ppt, 74th), but I wager that works out fine as we don't give up a ton of scoring opportunities. 

10/22/2018 - 4:08pm I've seen this Alabama worry…

I've seen this Alabama worry before and I just dont get it. CFP picks are inherently political. The SEC got 2 teams in because OSU had 2 losses. You're already probably leaving out 2 P5 conferences with ND getting in. No way they leave out 3 if there is a 1 loss conference title winner. Especially if it's a 7 pt road loss to a top 10 team.

 

I will admit I think Oklahoma might be a much more legitimate worry, so I think we only 96% control our own destiny vs 100%

09/30/2018 - 5:43pm He actually is keeping the…

He actually is keeping the pre-season projections in all year this year. He said that they make the model more accurate if there is some preseason projection left. 

09/23/2018 - 3:04pm I think looking at S&P+ as a…

I think looking at S&P+ as a ratings system rather than a ranking system is useful here. Basically S&P+ looked at the play by play of the LSU/Auburn game and says that LSU got ouplayed and was lucky to win. So as a forward looking projection system, it correspondingly downgrades LSU as basically a 3-1 team that got lucky. 

Ranking systems are more based on resume. In that case LSU should be higher because, optics aside, they did win the game. Most polls are (or should be) ranking systems. So us being 6th is great looking forward in S&P+. and I have no problem with being significantly lower in polls because we haven't earned higher based on our resume. 

09/08/2018 - 11:31pm Wasn't Drevno in charge of…

Wasn't Drevno in charge of recruiting out there? Because honestly that feels like it could definitely be a reason.

09/04/2018 - 4:52pm MSU at no point in the 2nd…

MSU at no point in the 2nd haf of that game had the ball within one possesion. In fact I dont think it was single digits the entire 2nd half

Michigan had it at the 50 with 55 sec left with a chance to tie.

The two games arent really comparable. Michigan dominated MSU and never was in danger. ND beat us in a relatively even game where they made the plays necessary to win.

09/03/2018 - 11:05pm Assume an XP is a 98% chance…

Assume an XP is a 98% chance and a 2 pt conversion is 50%. Assume OT is a 50% win probability. 

At 16-24, you either get the 2pt or don't. 
If you get it, then you kick the XP after the next TD and go up 25-24

Odds = .5 of win (.49 + .01 from missing 2nd XP/OT)

If you don't, you go for 2 after the 2nd TD

Odds = .125 of win (.5 *.5  chance/OT)

So assuming you score 2 TDs, you have a 62.5% chance of winning. 

 

If you kick 2 XPs

Odds  = 0.48 of win (.96 + OT)

No football coach will do this, but those are the numbers. 

08/30/2018 - 3:26pm Downvoting because your…

Downvoting because your score is wrong. ND would go for 2 in this situation so it has to be 25-24 or 27-24. Kicking the XP makes no sesnse

08/03/2018 - 3:31pm You said this on the…

You said this on the roundtable too, but wasn't it Justin Boren that transferred? I thought Zach just went to OSU from the start

08/01/2018 - 12:21am We've played 3 road games…

We've played 3 road games against top 20 teams by my count since Harbaugh got here (2016 OSU, 2017 OSU/PSU) . Literally zero happened with healthy starting QBs. It's entirely possible we lose those games this year, but I don't think Harbaugh's record in those games since we got here is particularly instructive. 

04/18/2018 - 10:44pm What % of regular posters on

What % of regular posters on this blog dont knoe Bob Ufer? I bet it's a pretty low percentage.

03/25/2018 - 2:33am I believe so. They asked

I believe so. They asked Beilein about it in the press conference (specififcally about only playing Poole 2 minutes) and he said with Hamilton taking early TOs and the media TOs, he didn't think the guys needed to come out of the game for breaks. 

03/25/2018 - 2:12am I must admit it takes talent

I must admit it takes talent to bitch and complain about coaching after a win to get to Final Four. If this doesn't provide you with pure joy I feel sorry for you and wonder how you can ever enjoy sports. 

03/21/2018 - 8:43pm So in previous years, we

So in previous years, we sucked at defensively rebounding and defense. I at least understood then why people wouuld suggest 2 bigs in order to address these obvious weaknesses. But we're good at both of those things this year. Why on Earth would John Beilein ruin his offensive spacing in the year he really doesnt need to?

03/18/2018 - 7:06pm He shoots 39% from 3. He's

He shoots 39% from 3. He's definitely a shooter. More importantly, they should have had him on the baseline trying to finish instead of Tillman and Ward.

02/03/2018 - 9:28pm So great teams do usually

So great teams do usually blow out average to week teams. For example, Purdue may have struggled tonight, but they are outscoring B1G opponents by 20 pts per 100 possessions. We're merely a good team so we tend to struggle more. Still I love the fight this team shows and will enjoy the rest of the season.

01/09/2018 - 7:45pm 8-5 team returns 17 starters

8-5 team returns 17 starters and one side of the ball is top 10. Starting in the top 15 is perfectly reasonable. I know the bowl game sucked, but the majority of this board is suffering from recency bias something fierce.

01/06/2018 - 3:19pm Think this is underselling

Think this is underselling Rahk a bit here. I feel like he is doing a bit of everything and is the stabilizing influence on the floor. I thought Poole's 2 threes in the 2nd half really helped move this game into comfortable territory.

01/03/2018 - 8:52pm No one is going to argue that

No one is going to argue that MSU will be favored in almost any given B1G game, but even if you give them a 95% chance in every game left, that's only a 40% chance at going undefeated. Drop that to 90% and the number goes to 15%. Odds are very much against them going undefeated.

11/26/2017 - 10:55pm Don't forget the game winning

Don't forget the game winning drive plus huge 2 point conversion in relief of Rudock against Minnesota. Here's hoping Wilt gets healthy and has a great year wherever he goes.

11/23/2017 - 8:30pm Here, here.
Additional

Here, here.

Additional fellow Braves fan

11/22/2017 - 10:18pm Jordan Morgan literally could

Jordan Morgan literally could not have been further from a stretch big.

11/17/2017 - 8:35pm Excellent read. Really

Excellent read. Really appreciate this type of writing youve brought to the blog Adam.

11/13/2017 - 1:30pm If you read Conolleys write

If you read Conolleys write up about the ranking, he goes pretty in depth about it. Basically this is a down year for everyone in his system (last year OSU would have been 8 in his system) and OSU signifcantly outperforms his prediction metrics aside from two games (which is more than most teams can say). Vegas has OSU similarly high in their rankings.

11/12/2017 - 11:15am As OKorn (and Speight)

As OKorn (and Speight) demonstrated this year, "not turning the ball over" is still a hurdle to clear. We'll see if it continues, but UM will have a fighting chance the next two weeks if Peters does t turn it over.

11/11/2017 - 8:07pm This was a reverse RR game.

This was a reverse RR game. Yardage looked nice for Maryland, but it wasn't until the game was effectively over that it got that way. I'm sure the coaches will have lots of teachable moments from this game though which will hopefully help.

11/05/2017 - 6:59pm This is truly the darkest

This is truly the darkest timeline.

10/27/2017 - 12:05am Well we might not have a 1st

Well we might not have a 1st year starter if Wilton recovers.

10/19/2017 - 10:13pm Bill C had us at 91% win

Bill C had us at 91% win expectancy with an adjusted scoring margin of over 11. We were definitely not lucky to win.

10/14/2017 - 9:00pm I hate so much about the

I hate so much about the things you choose to be.

10/14/2017 - 8:46pm Steel in your spines

It's clear most on this board do not have it. It will be a tough game, but PSU has a bad OL, we have a great DL. You always have a chance if you win that matchup. Big time programs don't shy away from these games. Lets get it done blue!

M 21
PSU 17

10/13/2017 - 1:41pm You can't say this as the

You can't say this as the coach, but man Hoke nailed it when he called fans fickle.

10/04/2017 - 5:53pm Burke was 2011. The

Burke was 2011. The Caris/Mitch/GR3 class was 2012.

09/16/2017 - 4:56pm To be fair I try to forget

To be fair I try to forget that they are in our division most of the time.

09/16/2017 - 4:35pm I'm at the point where I'm

I'm at the point where I'm ready to start blaming playcalling. Thought Speight was okay today. Had one throw that made me groan (McDoom in the endzone), but didn't turn the ball over. With this defense, we are going to have a chance in every game, but this offense means there are no more gimmes left on our schedule.

09/11/2017 - 3:08pm While I agree Navarre slander

While I agree Navarre slander should not stand, Henne won the Big Ten in 2004, we just lost to OSU.

09/10/2017 - 7:29pm Weren't we number 2 when we

Weren't we number 2 when we played Iowa last year? Pretty sure we were higher then.

09/06/2017 - 5:29pm Cranbrook sucks. What the

Cranbrook sucks. What the heck kind of mascot is a crane anyway?

08/26/2017 - 9:40pm Double Post

My hot take is UGA wins 10+ games and the SEC East.

08/26/2017 - 9:38pm If DJ Durkin comes up with a

If DJ Durkin comes up with a gameplan to actually beat OSU, I will be livid.

08/25/2017 - 3:43pm Gotta nitpick here. While

Gotta nitpick here. While fans might have grumbled about him, Carr was in no way pushed out. If he'd wanted to coach into 2008, he absolutely could have.

08/17/2017 - 12:58pm Fun fact. The "worst deep

Fun fact. The "worst deep ball passer ever" had the highest passer rating on deep balls of any returning B1G player (including McSorely)

04/26/2017 - 2:29pm Just follow any woman in

Just follow any woman in sports on Twitter and see what gets posted to her if she says anything slightly negative about a popular team.

04/26/2017 - 2:22pm If this was the middle of

If this was the middle of football season, I'd agree with you, but there is really nothing to talk about as far as football. I'm sure they'll be a Italy recap, but thats gonna be after the team comes back. Meanwhile the collapse of the sports industry model is pretty dang relevant to our interests.

04/07/2017 - 5:27pm Giving credit where it is due

Giving credit where it is due here. This is definitely a trend started during the Hoke era and I'm very pleased to see it continue.

03/02/2017 - 3:15pm IMO, yes you want to burn a

IMO, yes you want to burn a little more clock. Ideally you want the shot to go up with about 3-4 seconds left so you still have a chance to get a putback on a miss, but there usually is no time left unless it's an hairball. Still I can't really fault Irvin for taking an open shot.

03/01/2017 - 5:07pm I mean it kinda matches what

I mean it kinda matches what you would expect. If you're really good at both offense and defense, you're more likely to make the final four than someone merely elite at one.

02/04/2017 - 5:23pm So I'm gonna try to answer

So I'm gonna try to answer your question without being a dick. We were pretty heavily involved in recruiting him, but Beilein had one scholarship for either Morris or Derrick Walton and Walton committed first. I don't think MSU looked at him very hard, but I don't 100% remember. In hindsight this is one of the recruiting misses that has plaguedone us over the last couple years.

02/04/2017 - 11:50am Don't know how much of the

Don't know how much of the Falcons you've watched, but they actually do fine if all you do is take away Julio. But that score prediction isn't at all farfetched.