|01/17/2019 - 11:54pm||We're fans, we're inherently…||
We're fans, we're inherently irrational.
Logically I do not think that Gary or Higdon did anything wrong.
Emotionally I just am not gonna feel as positively about them as Chase. If you feel differently, more power to you.
|01/17/2019 - 4:53pm||I'll never blame anybody for…||
I'll never blame anybody for putting their future earnings first to not play in a relative meaningless game. However, to be honest, I can't lie and say I'll look back on the legacies of Gary and Higdon w/ the same fondness as Chase.
|11/05/2018 - 3:02pm||I know most on this board…||
I know most on this board don't shift to basketball mode until after the season, but I'm personally hoping for a 330 kick as basketball has a game at noon that day.
|11/04/2018 - 11:30am||There is actually a source…||
There is actually a source that tracks inside the 40. Bill C's advanced stat pages keep track of "points per scoring opportunity" which is inside the opposition 40 yard line. He hasn't updated for this week's games yet, but coming into this week, Michigan was at 4.63 pts per trip inside the 40, which is 67th in the country. So it is definitely something we can improve upon.
Interestingly enough we actually struggle with that on defense as well (4.58 ppt, 74th), but I wager that works out fine as we don't give up a ton of scoring opportunities.
|10/22/2018 - 4:08pm||I've seen this Alabama worry…||
I've seen this Alabama worry before and I just dont get it. CFP picks are inherently political. The SEC got 2 teams in because OSU had 2 losses. You're already probably leaving out 2 P5 conferences with ND getting in. No way they leave out 3 if there is a 1 loss conference title winner. Especially if it's a 7 pt road loss to a top 10 team.
I will admit I think Oklahoma might be a much more legitimate worry, so I think we only 96% control our own destiny vs 100%
|09/30/2018 - 5:43pm||He actually is keeping the…||
He actually is keeping the pre-season projections in all year this year. He said that they make the model more accurate if there is some preseason projection left.
|09/23/2018 - 3:04pm||I think looking at S&P+ as a…||
I think looking at S&P+ as a ratings system rather than a ranking system is useful here. Basically S&P+ looked at the play by play of the LSU/Auburn game and says that LSU got ouplayed and was lucky to win. So as a forward looking projection system, it correspondingly downgrades LSU as basically a 3-1 team that got lucky.
|09/08/2018 - 11:31pm||Wasn't Drevno in charge of…||
Wasn't Drevno in charge of recruiting out there? Because honestly that feels like it could definitely be a reason.
|09/04/2018 - 4:52pm||MSU at no point in the 2nd…||
MSU at no point in the 2nd haf of that game had the ball within one possesion. In fact I dont think it was single digits the entire 2nd half
Michigan had it at the 50 with 55 sec left with a chance to tie.
The two games arent really comparable. Michigan dominated MSU and never was in danger. ND beat us in a relatively even game where they made the plays necessary to win.
|09/03/2018 - 11:05pm||Assume an XP is a 98% chance…||
Assume an XP is a 98% chance and a 2 pt conversion is 50%. Assume OT is a 50% win probability.
Odds = .5 of win (.49 + .01 from missing 2nd XP/OT)
If you don't, you go for 2 after the 2nd TD
Odds = .125 of win (.5 *.5 chance/OT)
So assuming you score 2 TDs, you have a 62.5% chance of winning.
If you kick 2 XPs
Odds = 0.48 of win (.96 + OT)
No football coach will do this, but those are the numbers.
|08/30/2018 - 3:26pm||Downvoting because your…||
Downvoting because your score is wrong. ND would go for 2 in this situation so it has to be 25-24 or 27-24. Kicking the XP makes no sesnse
|08/03/2018 - 3:31pm||You said this on the…||
You said this on the roundtable too, but wasn't it Justin Boren that transferred? I thought Zach just went to OSU from the start
|08/01/2018 - 12:21am||We've played 3 road games…||
We've played 3 road games against top 20 teams by my count since Harbaugh got here (2016 OSU, 2017 OSU/PSU) . Literally zero happened with healthy starting QBs. It's entirely possible we lose those games this year, but I don't think Harbaugh's record in those games since we got here is particularly instructive.
|04/18/2018 - 10:44pm||What % of regular posters on||
What % of regular posters on this blog dont knoe Bob Ufer? I bet it's a pretty low percentage.
|03/25/2018 - 2:33am||I believe so. They asked||
I believe so. They asked Beilein about it in the press conference (specififcally about only playing Poole 2 minutes) and he said with Hamilton taking early TOs and the media TOs, he didn't think the guys needed to come out of the game for breaks.
|03/25/2018 - 2:12am||I must admit it takes talent||
I must admit it takes talent to bitch and complain about coaching after a win to get to Final Four. If this doesn't provide you with pure joy I feel sorry for you and wonder how you can ever enjoy sports.
|03/21/2018 - 8:43pm||So in previous years, we||
So in previous years, we sucked at defensively rebounding and defense. I at least understood then why people wouuld suggest 2 bigs in order to address these obvious weaknesses. But we're good at both of those things this year. Why on Earth would John Beilein ruin his offensive spacing in the year he really doesnt need to?
|03/18/2018 - 7:06pm||He shoots 39% from 3. He's||
He shoots 39% from 3. He's definitely a shooter. More importantly, they should have had him on the baseline trying to finish instead of Tillman and Ward.
|02/03/2018 - 9:28pm||So great teams do usually||
So great teams do usually blow out average to week teams. For example, Purdue may have struggled tonight, but they are outscoring B1G opponents by 20 pts per 100 possessions. We're merely a good team so we tend to struggle more. Still I love the fight this team shows and will enjoy the rest of the season.
|01/09/2018 - 7:45pm||8-5 team returns 17 starters||
8-5 team returns 17 starters and one side of the ball is top 10. Starting in the top 15 is perfectly reasonable. I know the bowl game sucked, but the majority of this board is suffering from recency bias something fierce.
|01/06/2018 - 3:19pm||Think this is underselling||
Think this is underselling Rahk a bit here. I feel like he is doing a bit of everything and is the stabilizing influence on the floor. I thought Poole's 2 threes in the 2nd half really helped move this game into comfortable territory.
|01/03/2018 - 8:52pm||No one is going to argue that||
No one is going to argue that MSU will be favored in almost any given B1G game, but even if you give them a 95% chance in every game left, that's only a 40% chance at going undefeated. Drop that to 90% and the number goes to 15%. Odds are very much against them going undefeated.
|11/26/2017 - 10:55pm||Don't forget the game winning||
Don't forget the game winning drive plus huge 2 point conversion in relief of Rudock against Minnesota. Here's hoping Wilt gets healthy and has a great year wherever he goes.
|11/23/2017 - 8:30pm||Here, here.
Additional fellow Braves fan
|11/22/2017 - 10:18pm||Jordan Morgan literally could||
Jordan Morgan literally could not have been further from a stretch big.
|11/17/2017 - 8:35pm||Excellent read. Really||
Excellent read. Really appreciate this type of writing youve brought to the blog Adam.
|11/13/2017 - 1:30pm||If you read Conolleys write||
If you read Conolleys write up about the ranking, he goes pretty in depth about it. Basically this is a down year for everyone in his system (last year OSU would have been 8 in his system) and OSU signifcantly outperforms his prediction metrics aside from two games (which is more than most teams can say). Vegas has OSU similarly high in their rankings.
|11/12/2017 - 11:15am||As OKorn (and Speight)||
As OKorn (and Speight) demonstrated this year, "not turning the ball over" is still a hurdle to clear. We'll see if it continues, but UM will have a fighting chance the next two weeks if Peters does t turn it over.
|11/11/2017 - 8:07pm||This was a reverse RR game.||
This was a reverse RR game. Yardage looked nice for Maryland, but it wasn't until the game was effectively over that it got that way. I'm sure the coaches will have lots of teachable moments from this game though which will hopefully help.
|11/05/2017 - 6:59pm||This is truly the darkest||
This is truly the darkest timeline.
|10/27/2017 - 12:05am||Well we might not have a 1st||
Well we might not have a 1st year starter if Wilton recovers.
|10/19/2017 - 10:13pm||Bill C had us at 91% win||
Bill C had us at 91% win expectancy with an adjusted scoring margin of over 11. We were definitely not lucky to win.
|10/14/2017 - 9:00pm||I hate so much about the||
I hate so much about the things you choose to be.
|10/14/2017 - 8:46pm||Steel in your spines||
It's clear most on this board do not have it. It will be a tough game, but PSU has a bad OL, we have a great DL. You always have a chance if you win that matchup. Big time programs don't shy away from these games. Lets get it done blue!
|10/13/2017 - 1:41pm||You can't say this as the||
You can't say this as the coach, but man Hoke nailed it when he called fans fickle.
|10/04/2017 - 5:53pm||Burke was 2011. The||
Burke was 2011. The Caris/Mitch/GR3 class was 2012.
|09/16/2017 - 4:56pm||To be fair I try to forget||
To be fair I try to forget that they are in our division most of the time.
|09/16/2017 - 4:35pm||I'm at the point where I'm||
I'm at the point where I'm ready to start blaming playcalling. Thought Speight was okay today. Had one throw that made me groan (McDoom in the endzone), but didn't turn the ball over. With this defense, we are going to have a chance in every game, but this offense means there are no more gimmes left on our schedule.
|09/11/2017 - 3:08pm||While I agree Navarre slander||
While I agree Navarre slander should not stand, Henne won the Big Ten in 2004, we just lost to OSU.
|09/10/2017 - 7:29pm||Weren't we number 2 when we||
Weren't we number 2 when we played Iowa last year? Pretty sure we were higher then.
|09/06/2017 - 5:29pm||Cranbrook sucks. What the||
Cranbrook sucks. What the heck kind of mascot is a crane anyway?
|08/26/2017 - 9:40pm||Double Post||
My hot take is UGA wins 10+ games and the SEC East.
|08/26/2017 - 9:38pm||If DJ Durkin comes up with a||
If DJ Durkin comes up with a gameplan to actually beat OSU, I will be livid.
|08/25/2017 - 3:43pm||Gotta nitpick here. While||
Gotta nitpick here. While fans might have grumbled about him, Carr was in no way pushed out. If he'd wanted to coach into 2008, he absolutely could have.
|08/17/2017 - 12:58pm||Fun fact. The "worst deep||
Fun fact. The "worst deep ball passer ever" had the highest passer rating on deep balls of any returning B1G player (including McSorely)
|04/26/2017 - 2:29pm||Just follow any woman in||
Just follow any woman in sports on Twitter and see what gets posted to her if she says anything slightly negative about a popular team.
|04/26/2017 - 2:22pm||If this was the middle of||
If this was the middle of football season, I'd agree with you, but there is really nothing to talk about as far as football. I'm sure they'll be a Italy recap, but thats gonna be after the team comes back. Meanwhile the collapse of the sports industry model is pretty dang relevant to our interests.
|04/07/2017 - 5:27pm||Giving credit where it is due||
Giving credit where it is due here. This is definitely a trend started during the Hoke era and I'm very pleased to see it continue.
|03/02/2017 - 3:15pm||IMO, yes you want to burn a||
IMO, yes you want to burn a little more clock. Ideally you want the shot to go up with about 3-4 seconds left so you still have a chance to get a putback on a miss, but there usually is no time left unless it's an hairball. Still I can't really fault Irvin for taking an open shot.
|03/01/2017 - 5:07pm||I mean it kinda matches what||
I mean it kinda matches what you would expect. If you're really good at both offense and defense, you're more likely to make the final four than someone merely elite at one.