Essentials

WHAT	#3 Michigan (9-0) vs Nebraska(3-6)
WHERE	Michigan Stadium Ann Arbor, MI
WHEN	3:30 Eastern
THE LINE	M –30.5
TELEVISION	ABC (Jones/RGIII)
TICKETS	From $67.
WEATHER	cloudy, slight chance of rain 10 mph wind around 40 degrees

Overview

There are no funny ways to say Nebraska except "Nerbaska."

Anyway! Remember when everyone (me) was like "hey these Nebraska guys were snakebit last year and a pretty good team and I bet one dollar they're pretty good this year?" Congratulations internet, I owe you one dollar. Seven more dollars and you can pretend you're a large corporation who loves racial slurs on twitter dot com.

Nebraska started their season with a loss to Northwestern, inexplicably in Ireland. From the perspective of the fanbase, the highlight of their season came in the third quarter when the payment systems for alcohol broke down and—because Ireland—an executive decision was made to just give away the beer for free. What a country!

After that they beat FCS North Dakota, lost to barely FBS Georgia Southern by giving up 680 yards, got cranked by a not-very-good Oklahoma team, eked out wins against Indiana and Rutgers, lost a shootout to Purdue, got cranked by Illinois, and then lost to Minnesota. Scott Frost got fired somewhere in there, and now interim Mickey Joseph is gamely trying to keep Frost from peeking over the bushes with his binoculars during practice just in case anyone pukes.

This piece is not directly stating Scott Frost is a perv who gets off on people puking. It is merely implying this. You have to make the last logical leap yourself. This is done so that we are not sued by Scott Frost.

Anyway!

Run Offense vs Nebraska

gonna maul [Barron]

I dunno, you try to figure it out. This is a team that gave up 217 yards at almost five yards a clip to Purdue (PURDUE!) and came back last week to hold Minnesota to 125 on 45 carries. Maybe this gets less mysterious if you just focus on the running backs:

Against Indiana's outfit that cannot run the ball, the Hoosiers' 3 RBs rushed for over 5 YPC. Against Rutgers, also a poor rushing attack, the Scarlet Knights were right around 4.0 YPC. Mockobee carried it 30 times at 5.9 YPC. Chase Brown for Illinois carried it 32 times(!) at 4.7 YPC. Mo Ibrahim last week carried it 32 times(!) for 4.0 YPC. You can run it again and again and again and you are guaranteed to get 4.0 YPC, no matter how poor of a rushing game you have.

Ah. Minnesota started slow, got a lead, and then choked the game out since they were facing down an offense that was doing absolutely nothing.

On the podcast Jamie Mac pointed out that Nebraska's held things together pretty well when both of their starting ILBs are available but has fallen apart when either is out… and also that Nick Heinrich is now out for the season. His replacement is true freshman Ernest Hausmann, who now has to figure out which gap he needs to fill against a Jim Harbaugh rushing offense.

Even that analysis may be too detailed. Let's just glance at the Nebraska front seven:

Three guys who weigh more than 225. The bigger DE is 245. The only 300 pounder got a cyan, and four of the six guys they rotate at DT got a cyan. All due respect to whatever happened in the Minnesota game, they gonna die. They can add in another DT and they still gonna die. They can add two: still gonna die. Alex began his detailed overview section with various clips of Illinois mauling Nebraska DTs off the ball on duo:

Problems with the DTs were everywhere. Like I mentioned, they like to go deep into the depth chart at tackle and there were no answers. Everyone was somewhere between "meh" and "atrocious", getting blown off the line of scrimmage repeatedly. Here's one where Nash Hutmacher and Colton Feist are the victims:

…There was so little resistance from the defensive tackles often times that it didn't matter what the LBs did and that was the story of the game.

Nebraska is 118th in line yards allowed. To repeat: they gonna die.

KEY MATCHUP: JIM HARBAUGH vs FORGETTING TO PASS AT ALL AND ENRAGING THE RECEIVER CORPS SUCH THAT THEY ALL TRANSFER NEXT WEEK. Don't do it!

Pass Offense vs Nebraska

I dunno look at this guy [Barron]

This looks like it'll be strictly optional for Michigan but after last week's parade of almosts and the projected shape of the game with Nebraska's starting QB out, this is an opportunity to get right and maybe put up some numbers. And there will be numbers to put up here. Everyone except FCS North Dakota and Indiana has put up at least 7.2 YPA. Northwestern(!) put up 8.3. Rugers(!) put up 7.8. Minnesota's backup QB had to come in last week and he put up 11.4 on 12 attempts. Tommy DeVito completed 20 of 22 passes.

In part this is because Nebraska does not approach the QB, with sack rates of 122 (standard downs) and 100 (passing). DE Garrett Nelson is a quality player who provides organic pass rush…

On a Nebraska defense that is tied for 95th in sacks per game in the FBS this season, Nelson is the only weapon that you have to watch out for on his own, capable of getting by a tackle and causing havoc for the QB. There aren't many impact players on this defense, but Nelson is one of them.

…but he's the only one. That could still cause some problems for Michigan if their starting tackles are out, as both Jeffrey Persi and Karsen Barnhart came in for multiple negative pass pro events last week against Rutgers. If it is, Michigan can likely just chip and it'll be fine. But it is something to keep an eye on.

Alex did not have a lot to say about the Nebraska secondary because he did the Illinois game and one way to complete 20 of 22 is to throw nothing but short garbage; the results in other games mean this almost cannot be even a halfway functional secondary, especially after the DUI suspension of starting safety Myles Farmer. FWIW, CB Quinton Newsome has 8 PBUs against 21 solo tackles. Those are numbers that are reasonably indicative of a good player.

For Michigan this looks like an opportunity to get McCarthy some clean pockets and open receivers and hopefully find some more rhythm before the season closes with a heavy man-to-man team with elite numbers in Illinois and the dread battleship that is Ohio State.

KEY MATCHUP: JJ MCCARTHY vs THE WHITE WHALE OF A DEEP BALL COMPLETION. Or several please.

Run Defense vs Nebraska

[University of Nebraska]

This is a solid rushing offense by top-level numbers, with drill-down stats in the top half of FBS and a quality line yards number (34th). Running back Anthony Grant has been productive against most opposition, with 5.3 YPC against Northwestern,—a number that has to get some more credence after Northwestern's OSU performance—4.3 against Indiana, 5.1 against Illinois, and 5.5 against Minnesota. Rutgers, Oklahoma, and (inexplicably) Purdue held him in check. Despite this production, Alex declared him "mid", as the kids say:

Grant exhibited a maddening lack of vision …I do not see a star there, but he's a decent player when he is not missing the hole or turning it over. He can grind out yards that the OL doesn't give him from time to time, which sometimes is necessary, but again, the OL wasn't awful in run blocking.

It's worth noting that Michigan's run defense is more in the Rutgers stratosphere than most of the teams Grant has produced against, with the exception of Illinois. They are still best in the nation at preventing 5+ yard runs; they've also given up the fewest 10+ and 20+yard runs amongst Big Ten teams. Anything that Nebraska gets on the ground is going to have to be sustained. Thunderbolts out of the blue are exceedingly rare, and once you take Nebraska's offense into account that only seems more likely. They have only 7 20+ runs on the year, on par with Iowa.

One complicating factor: both available Nebraska QBs are more effective as runners than passers:

Chubba Purdy is more Martinez, and Smothers is a good runner too. A shift in the offense was apparent when those two entered the game after the Thompson injury, with a plate full of zone read concepts coming on the table as a response by the Husker coaching staff. …

Neither are lightning quick athletes nor Tim Tebow-sized chonky boys who don't go down on contact, but when these two are playing, the run is probably a bigger threat than the pass.

This was of some utility against Minnesota but the two QBs only combined for six non-sack carries despite an absolutely dismal output in the passing game. This is a spot where losing Scott Frost has some consequences, as he is much better at putting together a janky QB-rush focused offense than Whipple is. Whipple was brought in to maximize the upsides of Casey Thompson and was doing a pretty good job of that; without him this is two round pegs and a square hole. Also the round pegs have bubonic plague.

KEY MATCHUP: NO WHAMMIES vs WHAMMIES. Aside from armpunts down the sideline it seems like the only way for Nebraska to move the ball any appreciable distance is for both teams to leave script and for Michigan to give up multiple chunk runs.

Pass Defense vs Nebraska

probably the last time a picture of Oliver Martin is posted on this site [Bryan Fuller]

In a word, nope. Starting quarterback Casey Thompson has been ruled out, leaving some combination of Chubba Purdy and Logan Smothers to run the show. Purdy is averaging 2.5 YPA on 36 attempts with no touchdowns and three picks. Smothers has 11 attempts on the season and is averaging 7.4 YPA, but is clearly behind Purdy in the eyes of the Nebraska coaching staff.

Both of these guys hypothetically have some talent. Purdy was a top 200 recruit when he signed with FSU in 2020; Smothers was just outside the top 300. In their second year in a college program you'd hope one would be able to do better than 2.6 YPA against Minnesota.

Whoever's playing is going to be under siege against a Michigan defense that has demonstrated it can overwhelm bad offensive lines. Nebraska is 90th in standard down sack rate and an appalling 119th on passing downs—one out of every eight passing-down dropbacks ends in a sack. Things are likely to be even worse with Thompson out, what with the slow decision-making of young quarterbacks.

Nebraska does have a couple of quality receivers, for all the good that will do them. LSU transfer Trey Palmer somehow has 819 receiving yards on 53 catches in this environment. Per Alex he is PFF's #7 wide receiver nationally(!), but Price Is Right Horns:

Unfortunately, due to the dreadful showing from the Nebraska QBs against Illinois, I have no organic clips to show you of Trey Palmer.

Texas transfer Marcus Washington is a ways back with 367 yards but is, you know, fairly competent when you look at him doing football. Also still around: Oliver Martin!

The main drama here is the same thing it's been the last two weeks: what happens when opponent QBs arm-punt it downfield on fly routes.

KEY MATCHUP: MICHIGAN CORNERS vs AFOREMENTIONED ARM-PUNTS. Looking like a bit of a weakness here.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Nebraska's special teams are middle of the road, and we have finally found a Big Ten outfit with a punter you can suggest is not insanely good at punting. Brian Buschini is averaging 45 yards a pop but has given up 129 return yards on 12 opportunities, which places him about midway down the B10's net punting stats. (Brad Robbins no longer makes this leaderboard because he's dipped under 2.5 punts per game.) FEI's punting efficiency has a harsher take, ranking the Nebraska punt unit 92nd nationally.

Kicker Timmy Bleekrode is bang average nationally in FEI, albeit on just 9 FGAs. He has a long of 46 and one of his misses is from 50+; he has missed an extra point this year. Last year at Furman he hit 15/18… and also missed two more extra points. Brendan Franke kicks off; he's gotten about 50% touchbacks and teams are only averaging 15 yards a pop on their 10 return attempts.

Nebraska has only returned four punts all year, but they have blocked a couple. Kickoff returns: irrelevant.

KEY MATCHUP:  AHHHH YOU CONTINUE DOING EVERYTHING THE BEST

INTANGIBLES

CHEAP THRILLS

Worry if…

• Blake Corum fumbles twelve times and is dramatically revealed to be a Nebraska double agent in the fourth quarter when he pukes on JJ McCarthy and then rips off his jersey to reveal a t-shirt reading SCOTT FROST FOREVER.
• Mark Whipple goes Falling Down on everyone, moaning that he had Kenny Frickin' Pickett and Jordan Addison last year and STILL GOT FIRED and now has to coach this SAD SACK BUNCH while taking all of Michigan Stadium hostage.
• A pass is completed downfield.

Cackle with knowing glee if…

• McCarthy finally locks in the downfield shots.
• Edwards continues setting them up and jetting by them.
• Ohio State continues to look vulnerable against uh… Indiana? Nevermind.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 1 (Baseline: 5; –1 for Chubba, Logan, Logan, Chubba, –1 for Scott Frost Day, –1 for That Linebacker Really Held The Room Together, –1 for LA Face With The Indiana Booty, –1 for Program Was In Disarray Before They Axed Their Coach, +1 for I Guess This Is A Big Ten Team That Beat Rutgers And That Was Close For A Half.)

Desperate need to win level: 10 (Baseline: 5; +1 for I Mean 30 Point Spread, +1 for Championship Aspirations, +1 for Everything Is Being Regarded In, Uh, Regards To The Ohio State Game, +1 for Transitive Georgia Southern Loss, +1 for Undefeated Is Fun!)

Loss will cause me to… suffer an abduction at the hands of a masked assailant and wake up in a basement where a mysterious man with tufty blond hair instructs me to puke into the bucket provided or I will get the hose again.

Win will cause me to… continue viewing literally everything in life through the lens of projected performance against Ohio State.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:

Oh, look, it's this game again except against a team that also has a garbage defense.

BONUS STUPID PREDICTIONS REVIEW: RUTGERS

It's a replay of the MSU game what with the steamrolling with duo; both backs go over 100.

One point.

Makari Paige interception.

Paige didn't play, incomplete, but predicting picks was wise.

Noah Vedral plays in the second half.

Should have? Yes. Did? No.

Michigan, 37-6

52-17 due to a lot of short fields and a punt block TD for Rutgers, eh, ok.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid on Saturday:

• Second straight week Michigan has two 100-yard rushers.
• Passing Rutger.
• Five sacks.
• Michigan, 55-11