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^ This

UW, even at their…

^ This

UW, even at their peak, will always be a distant, distant second place to the Seahawks (i.e. the opposite of Michigan, where UM & MSU have much more dedicated fanbases than the Lions). 

Washington is a solid program with a history to be sure, but living in Seattle, their fanbase is much weaker than most in the Big Ten (even if their program is better). 

The only West Coast schools with good football fanbases (i.e. on the level of the Midwest/South) are Oregon and USC (and USC's are extremely fair-weathered compared to average). Utah does as well but they aren't really fully West Coast. 

Yeah, echoing this. There is…

Yeah, echoing this. There is zero chance Kirby leaves for Bama.

He is a UGA bulldog himself (played there; also had his first coaching job there); he's already built a deathstar, why start over?; Athens >>> Tuscaloosa, plus you're close to a major metro area in ATL; Georgia itself has more talent instate than Alabama as well (much more populous, and growing much faster). 

HAIL!!!

HAIL!!!

Love you all. We've been…

Love you all. We've been through so much, and we made it. Started from the bottom, and the view from the top is worth every second of pain during the climb. 

GO BLUE!!!

Unreal. It never seemed like…

Unreal. It never seemed like this would happen just a few years back, but this team pulled it off. 

Those who stay...

 

GO BLUE!!!

Defense is playing good…

Defense is playing good enough to win. 

Offense was in the 1st quarter, did not play nearly well enough in the 2nd. 

We need momentum back. 

 

GO BLUE!!!!

You're 100% right. They need…

You're 100% right. They need to expand the concourse width (especially behind the press box side) and expedite people into the tunnels. There is so much land around the concourse, they have to have enough room for that/there's no excuse. They also should open 2.5-3 hours early; let people not tailgating get to their seats early to reduce the issues.  

I almost had a panic attack as well at one point (I lost my friends for about 5 minutes and was being pushed from multiple sides despite not moving), and I wouldn't say I'm the type who is prone to them.

It was scary for the kids too, at short height there is literally less oxygen in a mass of humanity like that. 

US Population by Time Zone …

US Population by Time Zone (as of 2015, could've shifted slightly since):

  • Eastern Time: ~47%
  • Central Time: ~29%
  • Pacific Time: ~17%
  • Mountain Time: ~7%
  • Hawaiian Time: ~0.4%
  • Alaskan Time: ~0.2%
Disagree with this. 

We…

Disagree with this. 

We have a huge alumni base on the West Coast; it is bigger than any other Midwestern Big Ten School or any SEC school. We also travel well from the rest of the country due to that tradition/nostalgia. This is why we were nearly 2:1 over Alabama fans in this week's game, who travel very well. 

UCLA's football fans are a non-factor. USC is really the only only one who would be advantaged by a permanent Rose Bowl slot. 

You clearly just needed…

You clearly just needed better advice on where to visit. LA is an incredible city if you're knowledgable and have a good plan to move about it. However, it's not an easy city to visit. You need to have a plan and do research. If you come to LA just planning to do the biggest touristy things, or walk around from your hotel, it'll be a bad time. 

Have to echo the crowd…

Have to echo the crowd control. 

It was literally the worst I've ever seen in my life, by far. I was at the Rose Bowl in 2020 as well, which wasn't good either, but this was much worse. People genuinely would've died if even the slightest panic broke out. It took us 50 minutes to get from the point of our ticket scanned to our seats, the majority of that time was spent in a clog of humanity just trying to get around only 1/3rd of the concourse (from N endzone to SW corner). 

They definitely need to fix the crowd stuff. I don't know if it's true, but I heard someone saying they don't open the gates until 60-90 min before, it definitely needs to be at least 2 hours, and they need to have the band enter through the player tunnels. 

Besides that, it was magical. The setting is incredibly beautiful, the chairbacks are nice, they do a good job with the game, the weather and the time of day were both perfect (2PM kickoff, enough time to tailgate but not too long to wait or needing to get up crazy early, can be back to your lodging by 7-8PM). 

Traffic getting out of the Rose Bowl is tough too, but it's a good opportunity to post-gate if you're into that. Nothing they can really do about this, as it's due to being in a residential neighborhood on a golf course. 

It was 60-65% Michigan fans in my estimation, which also was great. 

Also live in Seattle, and I…

Also live in Seattle, and I'll second this. 

UW fans are pretty benign. Far more so than Big Ten or SEC fanbases, and even than other West Coast ones like Oregon or USC. 

There also are a HUGE amount of Michigan alums in Seattle, one of the top outside of UW, so they are used to us lol. 

There are generally 2 actual…

There are generally 2 actual corners where the actual university tickets are, these are close to 100% of one of the other. 

 

Then the two other corners are technically neutral (universities don't give out tickets), but tend to be more of the team on that sideline. 

In Pasadena, the neutral on the Michigan sideline, where I sat, was basically 100% Michigan. 

But from my vantage point across the stadium to the equivalent "neutral" corner on the bama side, it looked 50/50, maybe 60/40 Bama. But you definitely would've still been around Michigan people. 

And, it is fun, as others have mentioned, to be able to look at the Michigan sections from across. 

It was probably close to 2:1…

It was probably close to 2:1 Michigan to Bama, at a minimum it was 60% us. And we were louder. 
 

the Bama side was the one in the sun and that the cameras were facing, plus red just always pops, but we had a significant crowd advantage. 
 

Hopefully we do in Houston too! Go Blue, Beat Washington!!!!

This team is different. I…

This team is different. I have a good feeling about next week.

GO BLUE!
 

Absolute best in…

GO BLUE!
 

Absolute best in-person win of my life as a fan. Shout out to all the maize & blue faithful in Pasadena tonight for the electric atmosphere and drowning out those Bama fans (a Let’s Go Blue chant drowning out the end of their Dixieland Delight revelry, even at the low point of the mid 4th quarter, was a highlight). 

It's kinda sad we don't get…

It's kinda sad we don't get to face Allar and this PSU offense in the Big House next year. 

Franklin is so embarassing…

Franklin is so embarassing. 1:30 ball back with 3 time outs and no effort to score/horrendous drive and now Kiffin will probably score with only 40 seconds to go. 

100%. 

PSU is not OSU. And…

100%. 

PSU is not OSU. And Mizzou is not Ole Miss. 

I really hope PSU wins, or…

I really hope PSU wins, or at least holds Ole Miss's offense to much less than their usual output. 

This is exactly the type of…

This is exactly the type of Buckeye bowl game I wanted to see. 

  • Painful as hell for OSU fans to watch
  • But also exposing an SEC team's supposed vaunted offense as trash (which bodes well for us transitive property wise)
  • Win-Win
For the Rose Bowl,…

For the Rose Bowl, Ticketmaster is the official provider so they are the best bet for instant tickets, for anyone else looking. 

Well, my fandom started in…

Well, my fandom started in 2012, so bowl season has been absolutely brutal and pickings are SLIM. 

We are 1-8 in bowl games during that time...which, I have to wonder, is that the worst 10 year bowl stretch for Michigan (it's only 9 games because we missed a bowl in 2014)?

Anyways...

  • Best is obviously the only win, which was the 2016 Citrus Bowl over Florida in Harbaugh's first season. We dominated the Gators on a beautiful day on their home turf, and it was the first bowl game I ever attended in person. The vibes were great, it felt really hopeful and like we had moved on from the Brady Hoke era. 
  • Worst is the 2016 Orange Bowl the next year, a loss to Florida State. This was awful for so many reasons. That 2016 team was so, so talented (in my opinion, definitely better than the 2021 team and possibly even better than 2022/2023), but this bowl loss meant they still finished the year as a 3 loss team (with all three being heartbreakers). That senior laden team had been through so much, and deserved to go out with a win, especially coming off that 2OT ref-assisted loss in Columbus. The fashion in which we lost was also brutal, scoring a go ahead TD with less than 2 minutes left and then instantly giving up a TD anyways (we also entered as big favorites on paper, and still lost). Plus, Jake Butt went down with an injury that killed his NFL stock. Overall, it was a super deflating loss and I think the heartbreak of 2016 left a dark cloud over the program for the next four years (it just felt like even with the most talented team, we still couldn't pull out big wins and would always lose the close game to a good team). 

I know that 2016 Orange Bowl had lower stakes than the CFP losses, but it still is the worst by far in my opinion.

The 2021 loss to Georgia we had no chance to win (though we should've performed more respectably than we did); that UGA team was just too good, and 2021 was already a winner year with the first Big Ten title in 17 years, and first victory over a good OSU team in 18 years. 

2022 was super disappointing, we should've beaten TCU, but if we're honest with ourselves, I think we still were going to likely lose to UGA anyways, and 2022 was still gravy after that beat down of OSU in Columbus. 

The bowl losses in 2021 and 2022 didn't ruin those seasons, but the 2016 loss solidified that season as one of the worst underperformances of all time (at a time when we had not won anything significant for soooo long and were really hungry for it). 

I went to the Apple Cup in…

I went to the Apple Cup in Seattle and personally didn’t find it that loud tbh. Quieter than the Big House for rivalry games. 
 

UW also has tons of empty seats for most games. 
 

I’ve heard Autzen is much louder. 

That OSU team had a LOSS. A…

That OSU team had a LOSS. A bad loss, at home to a 6-6 team. 

 

That is the key difference, not the 59-0 over a mediocre Wisconsin team. OSU needed style points because they had a loss, FSU doesn't have a loss. 

If Warde lets us get put in…

If Warde lets us get put in New Orleans he should be fired. 

There also is the tradition of the Rose obviously, plus the fact that of any of these schools, U of M has by far the biggest West Coast alumni base (our alums are arguably the most nationally distributed of any non-Ivy school). The Rose is every advantage to us, except maybe against Washington, but Washington won't be 4. 

Why the hell would Michigan…

Why the hell would Michigan want to play Texas in New Orleans, driving distance from their state, over the Rose Bowl? That location alone doesn't give credence to these projections. 

Remember, Iowa's defense is…

Remember, Iowa's defense is better than most, if not all of the potential CFP contenders. We're being conservative as a matter of strategy given how bad their offense is. 

 

Everyone needs to relax. Bama looked shitty against Texas, South Florida & Auburn, Texas has had several suspect games, and WA almost lost to half the PAC 12. RELAX. 

I really hope he's okay....

I really hope he's okay....

Huh?! If we win we're the #1…

Huh?! If we win we're the #1 seed now, Washington is not passing us. Michigan is going to choose Pasadena, both for the vaunted tradition of the Big Ten champ playing there, but also to avoid playing a team from the South in the middle of the South in New Orleans (whether Bama, Texas, FSU or Georgia). 

Best case is Florida State…

Best case is Florida State in the Rose Bowl, which won't be easy, but for a 2 vs. 3 matchup, this would require:

  • Georgia beating Bama
  • Oregon beating Washington in a close game, preferably in a fluky or ugly way (cannot be by a significant margin)
  • FSU beating Louisville convincingly 

That still may not be enough to get FSU to 3 with us as 2, but it's the only possibility. 

If Georgia loses to Bama and we become the 1 seed, we'd want:

  • The Bama win to be fluky/close/ugly
  • Texas to blow out OK State
  • Washington to beat Oregon convincingly 
  • FSU beating Louisville convincingly 

This is the one scenario the SEC could be left out, specifically because Texas has that win over Bama head to head (on the road by double digits to boot).

In that situation we'd have either Texas or FSU, I'd like either matchup. 

Texas & FSU would be the easiest to defeat, followed by Washington, followed by Oregon. The worst case is having to play Bama or Georgia in round 1. 

PSU's run defense is going…

PSU's run defense is going to be tough sledding for us. 

 

We are either going to need a stellar game from McCarthy or a grinding defensive win where we hold them to a very low score. 

I can't speak to James…

I can't speak to James Madison or Liberty, but of the P5 schools, Washington would have the highest chance of losing this weekend, but I still don't think it's >50%. 

UW has been off since beating Oregon, but USC's defense is real, real bad and they've been floundering through October as well. 

I can't see Georgia losing, but I hope that Mizzou gives them a competitive game at least. 

FSU is probably going undefeated, their toughest games are all behind them now, they have the easiest November schedule of the playoff contenders by far. @Florida in a rivalry game is their best chance, but the Gators have looked awful against top ranked teams so far this year (Utah, Georgia), so don't think that's likely. Right now Louisville is their most likely championship game opponent, who I also can't see them having significant issues with. 

 

I think Oregon is the best team in the PAC 12, and they have a MUCH easier November schedule (Cal, USC, @ASU, Oregon State) than Washington (Huskies also play USC & Or. State, but both on the road instead of both at home, and Utah & Wash. State are much better than Cal & Ariz. State), so they should get the chance for a rematch in the championship game. 

 

If I had to predict, the playoff will be (not in ranked order):

  • Undefeated ACC Champ, Florida State
  • Undefeated Big Ten Champ, winner of The Game (UM or OSU)
  • 1 loss PAC 12 Champ, Oregon 
  • SEC Champion (probably undefeated Georgia)

Key contingencies:

  • IF a 1 loss Texas is the Big 12 champion they will be hard to leave out with that non-conference win @Bama, plus their brand; I think a one loss Texas Big 12 champ is in over any other 1 loss team/champion from the ACC, Big Ten, or PAC 12. A 1 loss Georgia SEC champ however would probably still be in over Texas, though not Alabama, obviously, with the head to head. 
  • Oklahoma will not receive the same treatment though, like us, their non-conference was incredibly weak (and their loss is to a worse team, later in the season); I think 1 loss Oregon pretty clearly goes over 1 loss Oklahoma, if both are conference champions.
  • Assuming Michigan & OSU are both 11-0 entering the game, the loser would need two of the three of the following to happen to have a chance (I do not see them having a chance over 1 loss conference champs this year, the Big Ten is too down this year and every other conference besides the ACC has a few strong teams at the top):
    • 2 loss PAC 12 champ
    • 2 loss Big 12 champ
    • FSU loses the ACC Championship game (if Louisville is 12-1, that is another threat though, so a loss for them in November would also be important)
  • If Georgia is 12-0 and loses the conference championship game, that would be the most chaotic and unpredictable outcome. Mitigating the chances of two SEC teams is the fact that Bama lost to Texas and LSU lost to FSU, but it's still not impossible.
I went to PSU in 2015 and…

I went to PSU in 2015 and had no issues, fans were nice. 

 

The official visitor section is in the upper deck of the north end zone, likely to have the only high concentration of UM fans. 

 

We actually are going again this year too, we're willing to sit anywhere. PSU is remote and the sell out their season tickets, so you are going to be sitting mostly just by PSU people. 

What does "lengthy probation…

What does "lengthy probation" entail?

Totally disagree.

Harbaugh…

Totally disagree.

Harbaugh game suspensions are the best, they mean little to nothing (if that wasn't clear to start the year). Harbaugh's impact is in recruiting & overall program management; we don't lose that just bc he can't physically be on the sideline for 3 hours after being with the team all week. He doesn't call plays and isn't that good at managing the clock/timeouts if we're being honest. 

A postseason ban this year would be awful, but nothing will happen that fast so we're safe. A postseason ban next year wouldn't be as bad, it's not like Michigan is going to be a favorite to win it all every year (and we have an awful record in bowl games under Harbaugh anyways). 

Wiping out our 2021 and 2022 accomplishments, the first championships and victories over good OSU teams 15+ years, would be devastating. Those of us who became fans in the 2010s waited so long for these past few years, and to wipe out its meaning with a stain in everyone's eyes is what is so horrible about this right now, more than anything for the players on those teams. 

Eye test definitely matters,…

Eye test definitely matters, but I think less precisely and more subjectively. A lot of the top teams have had at least a couple dominant blowouts, and I feel like the marginal utility of each diminishes significantly when compared to other factors. 

 

Georgia just won't fall below us as a two-time defending champion even if we look better. And OSU's resume is miles better, especially with a night win in Madison. They'd have 4 wins over teams better than the best team we've beaten. 

Having a bye week right…

Having a bye week right before the first rankings probably won't help us. To be honest, I wouldn't be shocked if they snub us at least a little bit to make a point about cupcake scheduling. 

  • Georgia and OSU will be ahead of us (unless either lose this upcoming weekend obviously, Florida for UGA and @Wisconsin for OSU) 
  • Until last night against ASU, Washington has looked really dominant too and unlike us they have a marquee win (Oregon), so if they look more impressive again/blow out Stanford next Saturday they could potentially be above us too, especially if Oregon notches a marquee win of their own @Utah. They also demolished Sparty in EL, so our one game in common is mostly a wash/could be used as an excuse to negate our large margins. They also have the probable Heisman frontrunner. 
  • Oklahoma also has a much better win than we have (vs. Texas), and has an opportunity for a solid pickup next weekend @Kansas too, though I think that's less likely they'd move ahead of us. 
  • The only major undefeated team I don't see as a threat at all would be FSU with how closely they've played garbage teams, and LSU losing its preseason luster a bit. 


All in all, I think #3 or #4 are both possible first rankings, maybe lean to #3 only because of UW struggling with ASU, and #5 is not impossible if OU looks particularly impressive at Kansas next weekend. 

Assuming all the favorites win next weekend and don't look particularly awful doing so, I'd bet:

  1. Georgia
  2. OSU
  3. Michigan/Washington
  4. Michigan/Washington
  5. Oklahoma
  6. Florida State

 

But as others have said, it won't matter long term. If we beat PSU & OSU we will move back up past several of these teams. 

Imagine if ASU hadn't missed…

Imagine if ASU hadn't missed two field goals and/or had a good kicker. 

Husky Stadium stunned. UW…

Husky Stadium stunned. UW just punted back to ASU, just over 2 minutes remaining in the 3rd quarter. 

ASU actually looks like the…

ASU actually looks like the better team too....this is pretty wild

Washington was a 28 point…

Washington was a 28 point favorite over Arizona State. ASU is leading 7-3 at halftime in Seattle...holding the statistical #1 offense in the country to a single field goal. Pretty stunning possible upset in the making. 

It was also posted with a…

It was also posted with a picture of him SMILING! Like WHAT?! Truly unreal. 

Too early to tell on 2023. 

Too early to tell on 2023. 

2016 > 2022 > 2021

Duke could give FSU a run…

Duke could give FSU a run for their money (the Noles almost lost to a putrid Boston College team). But probably just the OSU-PSU loser

That is SICKENING as a…

That is SICKENING as a mistake by Maryland. What the fuck!!!!! How can you be that oblivious. Absolutely horrendous. Could easily cost them the game if this stays close.

This is correct, I live in…

This is correct, I live in Seattle as well and November is the wettest month of the year in Seattle by a significant margin (6.3 inches on average, for a month with 30 days; January is the second at 5.8 inches, with an extra day in the month); the wettest month of the year in Ann Arbor, June (a month with thunderstorms/heavy rain) only averages 3.9 inches. The Huskies are used to playing in cold (not frigid, but it can easily be 40s & into the 30s) and wet weather. Ducks slightly less so, but late fall in the PNW is not pleasant by any means. 

In the PNW it rains harder (and is much more windy) in the fall than it is in the winter & spring. Fall is storm season. Winter & spring are more of a steadier but very light rain. And summer is gorgeous & much drier than in the Midwest (with no humidity). 

Comparing precipitation in Seattle to Michigan at least, in general it is much wetter in Seattle November-March, much drier in Seattle May-September, and then October & April are close to even. 

Thank you so much for…

Thank you so much for putting the work in on these, love reading this!

Not much urgency, as per…

Not much urgency, as per usual, at the end of the first half, is my main small gripe. It didn't matter because we had the TD strike, but if we needed to go down the field more incrementally we probably would've run out of time. Other than that, the one time they ran up the middle on 3rd & 10 felt dumb too, but overall incredible game. 

Not really, hard to learn…

Not really, hard to learn anything when you aren't tested at all.