PSU Betting Line
My apologies if this was already solved, but I haven't seen the answer posted anywhere. The line for the PSU game went from roughly 10 to roughly 14 in the last two days before the game. I'm certainly no gambling expert, but I don't think I've ever seen a line move that much, that late, except in the case of an injury to a qb or other critical player. My guess at the time was that the only reason the line could move that much was word leaking out that McSorely wouldn't be playing, but that obviously wasn't the case. Sure he wasn't as mobile as usual, but that wasn't new news. So, degenerate gamblers, what happened?
November 5th, 2018 at 1:07 PM ^
Don Brown happened.
November 5th, 2018 at 1:09 PM ^
But he already was happening. And continued to happen.
He has always been here.
November 5th, 2018 at 1:48 PM ^
Has anyone ever seen Murder Wolf and Don Brown in the same room together?!?
November 5th, 2018 at 2:11 PM ^
Betting Algorithm kicked in....
Don Brown >> James Franklin => Smart Money^100
November 5th, 2018 at 2:51 PM ^
Profit.
November 5th, 2018 at 1:09 PM ^
Frames Janklin happened.
November 5th, 2018 at 1:09 PM ^
Chase confirmed that PSU was stop three on the revenge tour, hence the change in betting line.
November 5th, 2018 at 1:12 PM ^
OSU/Nebraska also went from something like 21.5 to 17.5 Tuesday or Wednesday. Both seem like big movements with no corresponding news to explain that kind of movement. I don't follow this stuff enough to know if it's that unusual though.
November 5th, 2018 at 1:14 PM ^
Black and Gary?
November 5th, 2018 at 2:52 PM ^
That along with the open practices that I heard that PSU was having, McSorely was looking somewhat gimpy and some have speculated that had a big impact.
November 5th, 2018 at 1:15 PM ^
Obviously they learned that Gary and Black would play
November 5th, 2018 at 1:17 PM ^
PSU line moved because of injury news updates between Gary, Black and their QB in a giant knee brace.
November 5th, 2018 at 1:17 PM ^
Sharps came in late and the line moved accordingly. They were probably hoping for a move towards PSU, hence the wait, and when it didnt happen they bet hard for Michigan and the line started to move upwards.
November 5th, 2018 at 1:18 PM ^
Line moves of that magnitude are relatively unusual but definitely happen with at least some regularity.
The biggest pieces of public misinformation out there on lines is that 1) big fanbases affect lines, and 2) the only goal of sports books is to even out money on both sides.
On 1 - if that were true, then over a large sample size the teams of the biggest fanbases would have to underperform the spread because of biases from the betting public. That is not borne out in the data at all. OSU and Alabama have (shocker) been some of the best performers against the spread in the last decade, and BYU has underperformed against the spread despite their fanbase largely abstaining from betting. There is zero emperical evidence to support fanbase size having any affect on lines whatsoever.
2 - This firm message board belief is the most frustrating trope out there for me personally and I've given up trying to correct people every time I see it posted, but it's just wrong. Sports books lines when released are accurate as to how they think the game will play out per the advanced statistical models they use, and are slightly adjusted in week due to betting patterns. The adjustments come more from large single bets (aka "The Sharps") than from large numbers of small bets that make up volume (aka "The Public"). The people who make a living betting on sports are very good at what they do, pay for insider connections within many, many programs, and run some of the best proprietary models out there to predict scores (and of course take note of models like S&P+). If there is an inefficient line, the sharps will *hammer* that quickly and leave the books very exposed. That's why you usually see big line shifts either quickly after a line is released or right before games are played, which is almost exclusively when sharps lay their bets. Changes in the middle of the week tend to be smaller, and are just slight scale adjustments coming from small volume bets from the public. Make no mistake, the books will take the public's money if the public is being dumb. The sharps are never being dumb. The overall volume of money is RARELY 50/50, and the books know what they're getting into.
It's a smart idea to take note of early and late line shifts. Mid week shifts are pretty inconsequential. If you see a line bet in one way both right after the spread is released and right before the game, that's a very nice sign for the team it's in favor of.
November 5th, 2018 at 1:29 PM ^
I 10000% agree with everything you said, except I would like to make a point about #2.
You are correct that rarely is the money 50/50, and oddsmakers don't set the line initially trying to get money 50/50 on each side - because it will get hammered if it's a bad line.
That said, the only distinction I would make is that it is a large goal of casinos and sportsbooks to get money evenly split between the teams, as it introduces the least amount of risk for them. (which is something you're not even disagreeing with in your response really, heh.)
November 5th, 2018 at 1:40 PM ^
I guess I'm having trouble following how your explanation on number 2 supports your point, unless all you're trying to say is that evening out money on both sides isn't the ONLY goal of sports books. Because their actions certainly suggest that evening out the money (and thus the risk--the house can never lose if the money, adjusted for the payouts, is even) is a primary goal.
November 5th, 2018 at 2:01 PM ^
The primary goal of sports books is to maximize revenue, not to create even money on each side of a line. They mitigate risk by having efficient lines, but efficient lines do not always create equal money which is fine by them, as the real downside they need to protect against is large single bets from sharps that hammer an inefficency.
Lets look at the Purdue/MSU line from a couple weeks ago. Public money was heavy, heavy on Purdue. They'd come off the big OSU win and MSU had just been blown out by Michigan. Play-by-play modeling still showed MSU as a better team than Purdue which the sharps understood, yet the large majority of money bet on that game was on Purdue getting about a point and a half by kickoff. The line barely moved all week, only slightly in Purdue's favor, because the books didn't see any sharps making strong Purdue bets. We all know what happened.
Over time, the books will follow the sharps who are betting with much better information than the public, fade the public, and make more money than if they were just creating even money with lines. Efficient lines maximize revenues for them becuase sports books are the ultimate exercise in sample size. If the public wants to take one side of an efficient line that the sharps are keeping in check, the book will win that more often than not.
November 5th, 2018 at 2:27 PM ^
That was a really good explanation above, but I do get how number 2 was a bit confusing.
From what I understand with regards to betting, the line is set based purely on how they expect the game to go. For bookmakers, not all money is treated equally. Money from sharps moves lines because of their knowledge/expertise. Money from squares (regular bettors) won't move lines because the bookmakers think they know better than the squares.
Another reason they generally don't like moving lines is the ability to "get middled." If they line is PSU +15 and they get a ton of money on PSU, they could move the line to PSU +10 to encourage betting on Michigan. BUT, if it ends up Michigan winning by 14, they could be screwed on both ends. In this case, they don't want money to be 50/50 because the money is at different numbers.
November 5th, 2018 at 2:18 PM ^
The 50/50 take is alluring, but most people miss the implication. In order to set the lines to draw even action on both sides, they'd have to know in advance how the sharps (or Floyd Mayweather Jr. type whales) are going to bet. The handle on many games is small enough that one big bet can completely skew the risk profile.
In other words, people are arguing on one hand that the lines are set to draw money 50/50 because the books can't predict the future, and on the other hand they're arguing that the books can predict the future because they know what action they'll be able to induce at what lines.
ESPN does a regular article about how the books are faring. I happened to read the one for yesterday, which said that the books got slaughtered in the NFL yesterday due to the Steelers and Chiefs covering.
I agree with your last point wholeheartedly, though. I was very positively surprised to see the line keep creeping in Michigan's favor Friday night and into Saturday. I expected Michigan to win, but I thought the line was pretty aggressive for a PSU team that generally doesn't get blown out.
November 5th, 2018 at 1:19 PM ^
Tarik Black and Rashan Gary maybe?
November 5th, 2018 at 1:37 PM ^
this was discussed. They move the line to balance uneven betting. Too many bets on M so they sweeten the PSU betting pot.
November 5th, 2018 at 1:44 PM ^
I think the best answer for both PSU/UM and Neb/OSU, and judging both both outcomes, smart people put big money on both UM and Nebraska.
November 5th, 2018 at 1:59 PM ^
Some insider had Rashan Gary news and it got to the bookkeepers ---- I think it was as simple as that.
I've seen it a number of times before (degenerate gambler that I am): insider injury news moves the line.
November 5th, 2018 at 2:28 PM ^
There's no way Gary alone is enough to move a line that much by himself. Gary would probably be worth .5 or 1 point tops.
November 5th, 2018 at 2:33 PM ^
I should have been more clear --- the Friday AM move (when it rather suddenly jumped from 10.5 to 12) I would attribute to injury (Gary) news. Any sudden mid-week moves seem to usually be injury.
Early movement or Saturday movement --- those are sharp $ related. Sharp $ doesn't tend to be responsible for mid-week moves.
November 5th, 2018 at 4:41 PM ^
I have no clue about sports gambling. How much is "Sharp $"? Is it in 100k range per single bet or more than that?
November 5th, 2018 at 6:24 PM ^
I'm not positive about this, but $100K from the right person would be enough to do it for any game. That's big $ no matter what. I think for regular season CFB, a $5-10K bet from the right person would also do it.
November 5th, 2018 at 9:23 PM ^
Thanks
November 5th, 2018 at 2:08 PM ^
To reiterate what others have said, I also believe that word spread about Gary and Black returning to extended action. And McSorley was wearing a knee brace.
November 5th, 2018 at 2:28 PM ^
Vegas woke up every morning thinking about the game last year and had it circled.
November 5th, 2018 at 2:48 PM ^
A lot of the PSU fans were complaining about why the spread was so large. That was before the game.
November 5th, 2018 at 2:57 PM ^
I thought it should have been 24.5.
November 5th, 2018 at 3:28 PM ^
I am betting that FauxMo placed his money on Penn State to cover at +11, and that sent the big money rightly in the other direction.
Still think he is a Millenial, despite his statements otherwise...
November 5th, 2018 at 3:39 PM ^
Vegas adjusted for the lunch money they stole from us last year!