We might be #4 now but everybody needs to keep rooting for Alabama cause the Bowl Committee proved last night they REALLY want two SEC teams in the final four

Submitted by mGrowOld on November 7th, 2018 at 10:23 AM

The number one takeaway from last night's ranking reveal was that the bowl committee REALLY wants to see two SEC in the final four and is manipulating the hell out of the rankings to give themselves every chance make that happen.  By placing Georgia at #5 they now have a clear path to the final four IF they beat Alabama in the SEC title game.   And if anybody thinks a one-loss Alabama team is getting left out of the dance this year they are nuts, especially when the talking heads are currently describing them as one of the best teams in college football history and after what we saw them do last night.

When the committee only dropped Kentucky two slots after losing badly to Georgia and even more unbelievably kept a two loss LSU at #7 ahead of West Virginia, Washington State and OSU, they are setting the stage for only moving Alabama down a couple of slots should they lose to Georgia in the title game.  If that happens and both Clemson & Notre Dame win out the final four will look like this IMO (remember they only dropped Kentucky two slots after getting beat by 17 at home last week and only dropped LSU four spots after getting shut out at home)

1. Clemson

2. Georgia

3. Alabama

4. Notre Dame

We need Alabama to win out or either Clemson or Notre Dame to lose for us to be assured of getting in.  Those that say if we just win out we'll be fine are missing the elephant in the room IMO - that when a one loss Kentucky team ranked 9th lost to Georgia team ranked 6th they only dropped two slots cause it was such a "good loss".  Does anybody here really believe that if #1 ranked Alabama somehow loses to a Georgia team ranked 5th they'll drop Alabama MORE than they dropped Kentucky losing to Georgia?

Last night one of our fellow posters PapabearBlue had a perfect post IMO on what's going on and is worth a read if you missed it:

If you look at the SEC's wins/losses what is happening is a giant pile of bullshit.

The SEC has no good wins, in fact they have zero non-con wins against ranked opponents. They've all beaten each other. It's a giant circle jerk of SEC love and transitive bullshit. I'm not gonna pull up the long diatribe I typed the other day but essentially every SEC team being propped up because they beat a team who beat a team who beat them. Every one of those teams is getting good credit for their own losses.

 beats 2 who beats 3 who beats 1. Well, obviously 1 must be pretty good because they beat 2 and 2 beat 3 and 3 was good enough to beat 1.

It makes no fucking sense, it's an SEC slob job. AND it's the exact reason why preseason rankings are fucking cancer.

If Georgia isn't ranked #3 preseason then NONE of this matters.

But NO, after Georgia loses to LSU everyone just assumes LSU should be number 3, after they had just lost to a 6-3 Florida who has just now lost to 4-4 Florida. Why not do the sensible thing and assume that Georgia was over-ranked as fuck like what happens to every other conference?

Oh, yeah. SEC slob jobs.

It's fucking corrupt.

lilpenny1316

November 7th, 2018 at 11:46 AM ^

Ummm, yes I'll be that disappointed.  Two years ago, we got leapfrogged by PSU and others because we didn't win the conference.  If Bama gets in after losing the SEC, it just validates the belief that the committee is a fraud.  Since the SEC isn't on FOX, Joel Klatt will be able to speak his mind about that garbage.

Firstbase

November 7th, 2018 at 10:52 AM ^

That's why we need to expand to eight teams my humble opinion. While it won't necessarily remove SEC bias, it will ensure other teams and conferences have opportunities they don't currently.

aflapan

November 7th, 2018 at 10:53 AM ^

Joel Klatt is looking more like a prophet as the season progresses. He was high on Michigan while most of the media were publishing hot takes about Harbaugh, and he has predicted/called out the SEC and ACC bias in the selection committee. 

1VaBlue1

November 7th, 2018 at 10:54 AM ^

'Cause' is a word - it is not the short form of 'because'.  This irritates me because it comes from educated people.  (And yes, I know everyone will now jump on it!  And I wouldn't expect less...)

I haven't heard anyone calling for Bama to stay in it over a 12-1 Michigan (or Oklahoma) team - not even Bama friendly Greg McElroy (who's actually pretty level headed).  The only 12-1 Conf Champ for which a 12-1 non-Champ Bama would make for a tough choice is OSU, 'cuz of how they lost to Purdue.

In this case (UGA wins, and the other three holds serve), Michigan has a road win over a top 10 team in one of the most hyped and viewed rivalry games of the year.  And it'll be a fresh memory.  No way M drops out in that case.

bdneely4

November 7th, 2018 at 10:55 AM ^

Just for arguments sake, what would happen if Alabama loses to Georgia in the SEC championship, but Tua goes down with an injury (Very possible if you watched their game against LSU.  His knee is not even close to 100%).  Bama has no backup QB with meaningful snaps.  If the backup qb comes in and the team looks completely different, would that play a factor in deciding if Bama stays in or if a 1 loss conference champion jumps them?

Swayze Howell Sheen

November 7th, 2018 at 10:56 AM ^

eh, I agree that there is too much SEC love. This will all go away when Saban dies/retires. No other SEC team will be anywhere as consistent - he is just an all-time great coach.

In the meanwhile, there is no way Michigan does not get in if they win out.

 

crg

November 7th, 2018 at 11:35 AM ^

I don't buy the narrative that Saban is an amazing coach.  He is a very good coach that found himself in two situations (LSU then Bama) that allowed him to create football juggernauts free from much of the restrictions found in other universities.  If he was a great coach, he would been successful in the NFL and MSU.

Swayze Howell Sheen

November 7th, 2018 at 12:03 PM ^

Eh, data doesn't agree. After Bear Bryant, before Saban (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Alabama_Crimson_Tide_football_sea…):

Ray Perkins: 8-4, 5-6, 9-2, 10-3
Bill Curry: 7-5, 9-3, 10-2
Gene Stallings: 7-5, 11-1, 13-0, 9-3, 12-1, 8-3, 10-3
Mike Dubose: 4-7, 7-5, 10-3, 3-8
Dennis Franchione: 7-5, 10-3
Mike Shula: 4-9, 6-6, 10-2, 6-7

Not bad, but nowhere near Saban or Bryant. Sure, it's harder at Rutgers (or wherever), but it's still QUITE hard to be GREAT at a blue blood.

mgob-rad

November 7th, 2018 at 10:57 AM ^

Alabama will not get into the playoff over us if they lose to Georgia and we are a one loss B1G champion. It simply won't happen. They only got in over OSU last year because they had two losses. 

Mongo

November 7th, 2018 at 12:37 PM ^

This is wishful thinking.  If Alabama is a 1-loss team to the SEC champion, again to the #5 rated Georgia ... Alabama will not be excluded from the playoffs based on that kind of loss.  Conference title is only a tie-breaker and means virtually nothing to the committee.  I think we get hosed by the eye test and current view from the committee and media that ... "this looks like Saban's best ever team at Alabama".

Snake Eyes

November 7th, 2018 at 10:58 AM ^

This is just the last vestiges of a bad case of BPONE. I just think you, as a Browns fan, have it twice as bad. Lions fans also suffer from BPONE's tight grip on our psyches. 

 

There is happiness in the world of football. It is our time to experience it.

SMart WolveFan

November 7th, 2018 at 10:59 AM ^

If they can live with the cognitive dissonance of a Bama loss to Ga. not being an elimination game, I can live with celebrating a mythical national championship in my own mind :)

 

Plus, the rationale for keeping Bama in would have to be "best 4 regardless", I think we probably sneak in and Irish eyes are crying.

But if Bama loses to Ga. for the first time since '03, they aren't the team the collective collegiate mind thought they were, and we know they are already over valuing the conference. 

Mongo

November 7th, 2018 at 11:01 AM ^

Yes, agreed it is corrupt.  The SEC would not go along with the playoffs unless the title game was deemed almost irrelevant to the qualifications.  We really need to get rid of the conference title games and expand to an 8 team playoff.  First round replaces the conference title games as a "play-in" round.  Games would be hosted at regional NFL domed-stadiums.  The current matchups based on this week's ranking would be:

  • #1 Alabama vs. #8 Washington State
  • #2 Clemson vs. #7 LSU
  • #3 Notre Dame vs. #6 Oklahoma
  • #4 Michigan vs. #5 Georgia

After the play-in round there would be a final ranking to seed the teams appropriately based upon overall performance.

This would be a killer playoff format and take in big money for the leagues.  I mean who is going to watch Oklahoma beat-up on WVA in back-to-back weekends ... just asinine that these league title games are worthless.  Let's settle this debate on the field.  Personally, I would love to play Georgia instead of Northwestern again. 

And conference champions would still be declared but on the prior method ... by league record and tie-breakers.  We would still be declared B1G champion based on our record and head-to-head with Northwestern.

1VaBlue1

November 7th, 2018 at 11:30 AM ^

Sorry, Mongo, nothing personal but this idea is ass.  LOL!!  Just say NO to using NFL domed atrocities for CFP games.  Eight teams, yes!  Call them the P5 league champions (however the leagues want to determine that) and three others at large - including G5 teams (mandatory? IDK, you debate).  Give home field to the best 4 teams for the first round.

This largely removes poll bias (CFP committee, or not) and puts the games on campus, where they belong.

And when Michigan earns that top seed, bring an SEC or ACC team up to Ann Arbor in December.  That will be fun...

Michology 101

November 7th, 2018 at 12:18 PM ^

The other 4 power conferences outside of the Big 10 are all pretty much made up with warm weather teams. I seriously doubt they would agree to any playoff system that could send their teams north to play in cold snowy December weather. 

A system like that would be too much of possible benefit to the Big 10 Conference. 

SMart WolveFan

November 7th, 2018 at 11:57 AM ^

As I said in this diary:

cfp expansion

don't even take the conference championships away, just retask them to have the best match ups.

 

Bama Vs      UCF             SEC champ

Clem  Vs     2 loss team   ACC

ND     vs      OK /w.v.        B12

Mich   vs      Ga                B10

LSU    vs      WSU            P12

 

Hotel Putingrad

November 7th, 2018 at 11:07 AM ^

Honestly, if we get left out of the CFP as 12-1 B1G champs, I'm okay with that, because it just means we can claim how  "we would've won" for the rest of our lives if not for that crooked committee.

College football was invented for such bellyaching.

Pit2047

November 7th, 2018 at 11:26 AM ^

My overall National Title philosophy is 2 loss teams shouldn’t get a shot at the National Title. So I have no problem with Alabama getting in over OSU or USC last year and no problem with OSU jumping PSU in 2016, so I think I might be less affected by SEC bias conspiracies than most.

As far as this is year is concerned, Alabama is the best team in the country by any metric, and it’s not that close. The Vegas line is projected at -13.5 Bama and I think that’s about right. I don’t want to just make the Playoff, I want to win the whole damn thing. If Alabama makes the playoff and Tua is reasonably healthy, no one is beating them. So I’m going to be rooting against Alabama, if the committee puts the in even if they lose the SEC then fine, beating up on Wazzu in the Rose Bowl is not the worst fate. But I don’t think they will.  We’re good enough to kick the crap out of everyone left on our schedule and that includes Ohio State. That’d be 12 wins in a row, all of which were beat downs except a blip @NW. I don’t think the committee can justify leaving us out of the Playoff if that happens.

TBuck97

November 7th, 2018 at 11:28 AM ^

Yeah obviously this has been beat to death over the years regarding the SEC bias, but it is unreal to me that Kentucky, Florida, and Mississippi State are ranked as high as they are.  Not to mention LSU going scoreless at home against a rival and only being put down to 7 (with 2 losses nonetheless).  Can you imagine if Jim Harbaugh lost 29-0 at home to Ohio State?

Jeremy

November 7th, 2018 at 11:29 AM ^

Alabama losing once before the SEC CG would ensure 2 SEC teams do not make it in. A 2 Loss SEC Non-Champion team will not make it in over 12-1 Big Ten champion.

cletus318

November 7th, 2018 at 11:32 AM ^

People are finally starting to see that the real danger was not Alabama finishing at 11-1, it's Bama finishing at 12-1. That being said, people forget how political these things will get behind close doors. I absolutely believe Bama is one of the four best teams, and a loss to Georgia (which much like in the case of LSU, I don't really believe has much chance of happening) wouldn't change that. Still, is the committee going to be willing to take a 1-loss Bama team that didn't win its conference over as many as 3 other 1-loss teams that did? Even in the case of Bama, that's going to be a really difficult argument to be made in that room.

J.

November 7th, 2018 at 12:05 PM ^

Alabama at 11-1 was more dangerous than Alabama at 12-1.  The CFP committee generally works like the polls, with a strong recency bias.

So far, no conference championship game loser has ever made the playoff, but a non-division winner has done so twice.

cletus318

November 7th, 2018 at 1:24 PM ^

None of those championship game losers was a one-loss team (one that's overwhelmingly considered the best team to boot), so there's no real precedent there. Also, in that example, you'd still be arguing for a 11-1 team over multiple 12-1 teams. That's even more of a non-starter.

Njia

November 7th, 2018 at 11:35 AM ^

You make a compelling argument as always, MGrowOld. One possible alternative is to stack the deck in favor of SEC teams in the NY6 bowl games. They might be looking at possible matchups in those games, and propping up the SEC's likelihood of "quality wins" in those contests. Doesn't mean a lot for this season, but for following seasons.

BlueMk1690

November 7th, 2018 at 11:35 AM ^

How Kentucky ever got to be a top ten team in those rankings in the first place is one of the lulzier episodes of recent college football history. SEC circular logic is always bad in rankings, but it's taking the proverbial mickey this year.

jdemille9

November 7th, 2018 at 11:37 AM ^

In the scenario where Georgia beats Alabama (assuming we win out) I think ND is the one who gets left out. ND will have one good win, us. Our resume is much better than ND's is assuming we both win out. We'll have wins against at least 4 ranked teams, and maybe even 5 if NW enters the title game ranked.

If UGA beats Bama, it looks like this...

1. Clemson

2. Michigan

3. Georgia

4. Bama

Just my two cents.

lilpenny1316

November 7th, 2018 at 11:40 AM ^

If we beat OSU, at OSU, the committee will be hard pressed to find a better road win on anyone's resume.  That, combined with the other ranked wins should be enough to basically be "win-and-in" in Indy.  There's no way to justify keeping us out if we win our conference with those quality wins at the end of the season.

KTisClutch

November 7th, 2018 at 11:42 AM ^

The committee is manipulating jack squat. Why would the committee want two SEC teams in? Add in the possibility of ND getting in and you think the powers that be want 2 conferences represented and leave out a national brand like Michigan? Take off the tinfoil hats. 

 

Yes particular teams in the SEC are overrated, but I'd also argue some are underrated. The rankings just have them in the wrong order. The SEC is definitely the best conference according to S&P+

BornInA2

November 7th, 2018 at 11:50 AM ^

This post stinks of sparty-flavor dysreespekt whining.

Let it go. Wazzu *barely* beat a bad Cal team and has no quality wins. You really think they are better than LSU?

The best way to fix whatever SEC favoring there might be is to beat them. So let's go do that.

Sideline

November 7th, 2018 at 11:52 AM ^

In my opinion, IF Alabama wins out (12-0) and then loses to UGA in the Conference Championship (now 12-1) and Georgia is in the Playoff (@ 12-1), Alabama should be the "first team out", where Clemson is 13-0, and Notre Dame is 12-0.

How do you have [a hypothetical] 12-1 Michigan Conference Champion below a 12-1 Conference Runner-Up in Alabama... regardless of the "eye test"?

Because if they are talking "Neutral field" blah blah where Alabama would beat Michigan, Where do we go with Michigan V Georgia or Clemson on a Neutral field? 

This may be the best year yet for the Playoff to realize 6-teams is honestly the best way to eliminate this question. If you want the 4-best teams in, you run into so many questions... I support the Notre Dame angle where they beat Michigan Head-to-Head, however, I do not think they would win a game played tomorrow ANYWHERE. With that said, Notre Dame DID schedule Michigan, and DID beat them in game 1. They have a claim. How does the SEC have a claim to put TWO teams in if the "best" team lost to their Conference Champion. The most logical scenario is that IF Alabama loses that SEC Championship game, they have lost too late and are out. 

DelhiWolverine

November 7th, 2018 at 11:53 AM ^

If we win out and Bama loses in the SEC champ game to UGA, I think that there’s no way they stay in the top 4. 

That being said, I’m going to cheer for LSU to lose a couple more games because it will devalue Bama’s win against them. I think there’s a good chance LSU loses at least one other game. Their offense is average at best and I believe that their great defense will eventually get even more fatigued and worn down as the season continues.  Arkansas this week could be a trap game for them as they let down from last week’s loss. TAMU in 3 weeks could also be a loss. 

Durham Blue

November 7th, 2018 at 12:07 PM ^

I think you're correct about Alabama losing in the SECCG and still getting.

I also think the committee is overly enamored with Clemson.  If they lose by a FG this weekend to BC and finish 12-1, I think they also stay in the top 4.

It is pretty obvious that there is not only an SEC bias but an ACC bias as well.

If we want to be completely secure in our top 4 ranking we absolutely need ND to lose a game because regardless of ND's weak ass schedule all the committee sees is that goose egg in the loss column and the head to head with Michigan.  We all know the head to head 8 weeks ago is almost meaningless considering how both teams have changed.  The robots on the committee may not be smart enough to figure that out.

DK81

November 7th, 2018 at 12:07 PM ^

We only root for Alabama if both Georgia and Alabama win out to the SEC championship game. We most certainly want Miss St and/or Auburn to beat Alabama in the coming weeks. I also think Auburn may give Georgia a game this weekend and maybe pull the upset and then all this handwringing will be for nothing.

pinkfloyd2000

November 7th, 2018 at 12:11 PM ^

I just...cannot...get over LSU at #7 and Syracuse at #13. All I have to say about that is, okay, Cuse -- go out and let's see what you got against Notre Dame, then. 

Mindboggling.