So... With TCU's loss, what happens now? Is a rematch basically guaranteed?
December 3rd, 2022 at 5:26 PM ^
Not OP, but I will. TCU and Alabama share a win. #20 Texas. That is Bama’s best win and TCU’s 2nd best win. Bama lost twice to the #7 team and #14 team. They didn’t make their conference title game. TCU did. TCU’s best win is also their only loss: a soon to be Top 7ish Kansas State.
If you go further down, does Bama’s win over Ole Miss mean that much more than TCU’s over Texas Tech and Oklahoma State?
SOR likes TCU better as well.
Bama might have the better team, but they haven’t had the better season.
December 3rd, 2022 at 5:47 PM ^
Losing to Kansas St with their back up QB in a neutral field is bad. Alabama doesn't have anything like that on their 2022 CV.
December 3rd, 2022 at 6:44 PM ^
Yes they do. Both of their losses are arguably just as bad/good. If you wanna think Bama is better that’s fine, but the resumes aren’t even close.
December 3rd, 2022 at 5:12 PM ^
Same seeds osu gets curbstomped by Georgia in the semis
December 3rd, 2022 at 5:12 PM ^
UGA is UM on steroids. The are going to bulldoze OSU
December 3rd, 2022 at 5:13 PM ^
Well, in case you thought it couldn't get any dumber, some moron on 11-1W made a post titled "How Ohio State Could Get Top Seed in the CFP."
Would that set up a rematch in the semis? /s
December 3rd, 2022 at 5:18 PM ^
Some Ohio St fans are being as irrational as some Michigan fans.
December 3rd, 2022 at 5:49 PM ^
Please get out of mom’s basement, get some fresh air, take a shower and play counter strike instead of posting here
December 3rd, 2022 at 5:13 PM ^
When did shit posts become SOP?
December 3rd, 2022 at 5:16 PM ^
Seriously, arguing about something none of us have one single bit of control over makes very no sense. It's fun, but there isn't much point.
December 3rd, 2022 at 5:19 PM ^
Dude who gives a crap. Just win tonight and let the cards fall where they may. If we have to play Ohio again so be it. Focus on today. We will all find out where everyone is ranked soon.
December 3rd, 2022 at 5:21 PM ^
The committee also seems to not like first round rematches of games that just occurred. They pretty openly stated that last year. Feel like the way the tcu game went they try to avoid the first round rematch.
December 3rd, 2022 at 5:28 PM ^
Correct. Given that the CFP teams are now split between UGA/UM at 1-2 and TCU/OSU at 3-4, the committee can dictate the matchups without there being any blatant manipulation. So IF the committee really avoids rematches they can get away with it. Have to hope they really do feel like that.
obviously the wild card is Alabama but I’m just not convinced that they have a shot to get in over TCU. But if Alabama did somehow leap TCU and Georgia wins this game they are currently dominating, then the committee would be backing themselves into a guaranteed OSU/UM matchup
December 3rd, 2022 at 5:24 PM ^
Food for thought:
Between 1994 and 2018, teams had rematches 56 times. The winner of the first matchup is 29-26 in the rematch. Lately there have been a few high profile examples of the losing team winning the rematch but historically it’s not necessarily the case
December 3rd, 2022 at 7:01 PM ^
Comment of this thread. Fascinating tidbit that contextualizes an otherwise emotional disposition. Honestly helpful.
December 3rd, 2022 at 5:25 PM ^
The selection committee knows that if they can create an Ohio State-Michigan rematch for the National Championship that it will receive the highest viewership of all time for a college football game.
Other facts that support Michigan at 2 and Ohio State at 4 are all of the other things mentioned above: TCU still has a better resume, they avoid rematches etc.
If Michigan wins and Georgia loses, Michigan will go to 1 and Ohio State to 3 as their only loss would be to the only undefeated team. I think we jump Georgia in this case due to being the only undefeated team, #2 strength of record, best win of any team, etc.
December 3rd, 2022 at 5:31 PM ^
This is true. While OSU/UM semis would still get massive ratings, in general the NC game has beaten either semifinal by about 7-8m viewers every year (typically about 25m for NC and 17-18m for the semis.
December 3rd, 2022 at 5:51 PM ^
GA isn’t about to lose
December 3rd, 2022 at 5:33 PM ^
TCU should be thankful. Back in 1998 KSU went undefeated only to lose to A&M in 2OT in the big 12 CCG. The national title game was on the line but instead we got Purdue in the Alamo Bowl.
December 3rd, 2022 at 5:34 PM ^
Think about this if Clemson wins tonight they would be a 2 loss conference Champion. If you can punish someone for losing the championship game why can’t you reward a team?
December 3rd, 2022 at 6:33 PM ^
Of course you can reward for winning but it’s not enough to make up for their two losses.
December 3rd, 2022 at 5:42 PM ^
TCU's loss changed nothing. They will be No. 3. Michigan will be No. 2. Georgia is winning big. It's all locked in.
December 3rd, 2022 at 7:18 PM ^
Starting to see projections - all subject to change - of
1) Georgia
2) Michigan
3) OSU
4) TCU
Bama seems to be out
December 3rd, 2022 at 5:52 PM ^
It’s almost a certainty now, with UGA absolutely rolling LSU, that there will be no Mich-OSU rematch in the semifinals. And the only way that Michigan falls below two is if Purdue blows them out. So, the two scenarios:
1. Michigan wins or loses a close game: Georgia-Mich-TCU-OSU
2. Purdue blows out Michigan: Georgia-TCU-Michigan-OSU
Either way, you can start scouting the Hypnotoads.
Edit: my confidence in the above is fading quickly.
December 3rd, 2022 at 5:52 PM ^
It seems that everyone is positive that TCU won't fall to 4 but I'm not so sure. They shouldn't! That's not what I'm saying. I'm saying that I don't think it's a gimme that they stay at 3.
It will boil down to The Committee wanting to give UGA the perceived easier game or not as a 1-seed.
Will their desire - if it existed at all - to avoid a rematch in the semifinals override their desire to give the top seed the easiest game?
Do not be shocked if OSU is 3 on Sunday. Everything they needed to happen happened short of a TCU blowout. It's just not cut and dry either way, IMO.
I think TCU should stay at 3 and that's without bias but I'm not so sure that'll happen. I think Bama got Cincy last year as much to give the top seed the easiest game as it was to avoid a rematch. We'll see.
December 3rd, 2022 at 6:17 PM ^
The resumes are really close. Both teams will have a top 10 win (Kansas State, at Penn State) and a top 25 win (at Texas, Notre Dame). TCU's only loss was in a CCG in OT, while Ohio State's only loss was by 22 to the #2 team at home. TCU had 8 wins against bowl bound teams, while Ohio State only had 6. TCU had several come from behind wins, while every Ohio State win was by double figures. TCU did have 12 wins compared to Ohio State's 11.
I think ultimately it's going to come down to the committee deciding who they think is better. That's why I think it'll be Ohio State at 3.
December 3rd, 2022 at 6:42 PM ^
Agree. All that "Championship Game" BS will get thrown out of the window. It'll come down to who they think is the better team and that also gives the 1-seed the perceived easiest game.
People are putting way too much stock into the "avoid a rematch" narrative when the only precedent for it (in the playoff era) was last year when the best two teams just played. Not a week before the CCGs. They played in the SEC CG. That's a rematch to avoid for two reasons:
First, they perceived Michigan and Cincy as significantly worse than UGA-Bama.
Second, UGA-Bama literally just played.
They don't have that problem this year. This year is a UGA team they really like, a Michigan team that if they were honest they only now like, an OSU they probably like just as much as UM and the perceived participation ribbon team in TCU.
In that scenario, they give the 1-seed TCU and there is your rematch. I think it's more likely than not but not 100% either way.
The only thing stopping TCU from falling to 4 are a couple of unproven notions that all rematches are bad in their eyes and that they won't punish a team for playing in a CCG. I think both are incorrect notions.
It's not a hill I'll die on but if I had to bet right now I'd bet that it's: UGA, UM, OSU, TCU
UGA walks in because SEC, 1-seed and the most liked and the winner of The Game 2 gets in. I think that'll be their mentality and I hope I'm wrong.
December 3rd, 2022 at 6:12 PM ^
CBS halftime lobbying hard for UM and OSU rematch in the semis 🖕
December 3rd, 2022 at 6:15 PM ^
Well yeah they want another cake walk
December 3rd, 2022 at 6:24 PM ^
Logic says there’s no rematch unless in the title game. The committee seems to hate rematches in the semis, and if you take out recency bias, TCU has a better resume and their loss, by three to a top-10 team on a neutral field at 12-1, looks a lot better than an 11-1 team that doesn’t play for its conference and gets seal-clubbed by three scores at home to a lower ranked opponent.
OSU doesn’t deserve to be higher than the four seed. They should have to deal with Georgia in the semis.
December 3rd, 2022 at 6:35 PM ^
There no justification to put OSU over TCU. TCU has the strength of scedule. More wins. And a close loss to a team they beat. OSU got dragged at home. They get 4th seed. Everyone else is above them. Michigan could lose and be 2nd. TCU is 3rd. Its a lock. UGA is 1
December 3rd, 2022 at 7:20 PM ^
Many are starting to disagree - OSU is being pushed up to #3 on a few forecasts
December 3rd, 2022 at 6:36 PM ^
If you get a rematch hopefully you will get to see our best running back and our two stud wide receiver’s not just one of them …
December 3rd, 2022 at 6:46 PM ^
Pathetic. We kicked your ass in your house, and yet here you are on our board talking smack and making excuses as you back into the playoffs. Oh, and i don’t know if you noticed, but we were missing our best player, our heisman candidate rb and top DE for the Game. Please go back to your eleven assclowns board.
December 3rd, 2022 at 7:41 PM ^
Good post. I might have gone with eleven asshole clowns board but, to each his own.
December 3rd, 2022 at 7:01 PM ^
This coming from the same fans who had been running their mouths the whole week leading up to the game saying that Michigan had no right to complain about losing Corum since they were down some of their best players too. That when Michigan was going to lose, they would’ve had no excuses.
And yet here you are, making excuses for your team getting whooped in front of its own fans.
Being down JSN and Henderson is not why you lost. You lost because you were out-coached and out-muscled. Again.
Meyer is long gone, pal. Your team is soft.
December 3rd, 2022 at 8:15 PM ^
Are you on the right blog? You seem to be as lost as OSU cornerbacks in coverage
December 3rd, 2022 at 6:40 PM ^
OSU will be the 4 seed, TCU should not be penalize for playing an extra game and losing by one point, while OSU sat a home.
December 3rd, 2022 at 6:56 PM ^
The committee will set up whatever they want but 12-1 > 11-1. Also a 3 point OT loss at a neutral site is better than a 23 point L at home
December 3rd, 2022 at 6:57 PM ^
TCU has a couple advantages over OSU.
TCU has 12 wins to OSU’s 11.
TCUs loss was an OT thriller against a top 10 team on a neutral site against a team they already beat. TCUs best win just got better, Kansas State’s ranking should move to 7 or so.
OSU got their asses handed to them by the #2 team at home.
TCU objectively has a better resume than OSU.
December 3rd, 2022 at 7:00 PM ^
TCU will slip to 4 and OSU will get 3. They are just like OSU; a team with 1 loss and no conference championship. TCU played an FCS team and had multiple close calls while OSU did not. There is a small chance TCU might not even make it as the committee sort of viewed TCU as a fraud, only putting them in the top 4 last week, and may put Alabama at 4.
December 3rd, 2022 at 7:25 PM ^
Won’t happen. it looks like UGA is taking care of business so the bigger chaos won’t happen.
Just need UM to win the B1G so the top 2 are set with no question. I firmly believe UM can wi it all. No worries about OSU in the semis.
Go Blue.
December 3rd, 2022 at 7:28 PM ^
Let the lobbying begin
December 3rd, 2022 at 7:43 PM ^
Definitely not fair to TCU to get leapfrogged after losing to a quality opponent in their conference championship game, by an OSU team that is sitting at home this weekend after not even winning the B1G East.
December 3rd, 2022 at 7:46 PM ^
Yes, a rematch is guaranteed. OSU will jump TCU easily
December 3rd, 2022 at 7:54 PM ^
Yes. lowest we can go is 3, and highest they can go is...well, probably 3
December 3rd, 2022 at 8:00 PM ^
Georgia vs OSU, Harbaugh vs Saban semi finals bro TCU is about to get screwed
December 3rd, 2022 at 8:20 PM ^
I have a strong sense that the committee doesn't want a rematch if they can help it. I think they leave TCU at 3 and OSU at 4th. You can't lose by 22 and jump a team that lost by 3 in OT in an extra game.
December 3rd, 2022 at 8:40 PM ^
This is the obvious answer. TCU is 3. OSU is 4.