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Date Title Body
07/16/2018 - 10:32pm I don’t know about you, but…

I don’t know about you, but Pulisic is starting for a CL side before the age of 20. He may not be on Messi’s level, but he’s on track to be the best American player ever.

06/01/2018 - 4:22pm Yeah, as Ace said, this is

Yeah, as Ace said, this is probably just to light a fire under Warde's feet for a contract extension and bumping up the assistants pay (especially Yaklich). 

I'm not a Pistons fan, but I do think Beilein could be a success story at the NBA level. He's more like Stevens in terms of his actual ability being the driver for wins and losses instead of having a talent disparity thanks to recruiting (see: Pitino, Calipari). But, there's only so much you can do in the NBA when you don't have a Durant, Curry, LeBron, etc. 

Also, I can't imagine him being okay with a Blake/Drummond front court. 

05/25/2018 - 9:50am FYI, I got an order to

FYI, I got an order to "Attack Virginia Tech". That's a Clemson-held territory who is a current ally of ours. 

I'm thinking it meant attack App State which is currently held by VT. 

05/21/2018 - 10:00pm As a former born & raised

As a former born & raised Chicagoan, I know it's not as good as some of the smaller spots, but Portillo's is my first stop when I get back. A dog, an Italian beef wet, cheese fries, and a vanilla shake. Probably 4,000 calories, but don't care.

Pizza-wise, Chicago deep dish is good, but as a current New Yorker, I much prefer a slice here.

05/21/2018 - 11:44am Yeah, he's wrong. I wrote a

Yeah, he's wrong. I wrote a diary a few months ago laying out how unlucky Harbaugh has been in his 3 years and how lucky Dantonio has been in his 11 (and, yes, you make your own luck to some extent, but still).

Here's Harbaugh's record in games decided by 7 points or less in his tenure here:

2015 @Utah - L by 7 

2015 vs Michigan State - L by 4 (the Punt)

2015 @Minnesota - W by 3 (knee down, GL Stand)

2015 @Indiana - W by 7 in OT (4th down TD to send into OT)

So, 2-2 in Year 1, which is right where you'd expect (yes, I would've much rather had the MSU win and the Minnesota loss - remember Rudock went down in that game).

2016 vs Wisconsin - W by 7 (Michigan triples Wisconsin's yardage total and misses 3 FGs)

2016 @Iowa - L by 1 (Ron Coluzzi is a Golden God, multiple targeting penalities on special teams)

2016 @Ohio State - L by 3 in OT (nope, can't relive it)

2016 vs Florida State - L by 1 (missed tackle on the KO)

2017 vs Michigan State - L by 4 

2017 @Indiana - W by 7

2017 vs South Carolina - L by 7 

That's a total record of 4-7 in games decided by 7 or less points. And that's excluding last year's Wisconsin and Ohio State games which Michigan was close in until deep into the 2nd half. 

Let's take a look at MSU over Dantonio's tenure:

2007: 7-6 Overall (2-6 in games decided by 7 pts or less)

2008: 9-4 (2-1)

2009: 6-7 (2-3)

So, at this point Dantonio hasn't really gotten State to an abnormal level. 22-17 over 3 years. 6-10 in close games. 

2010: 11-2 (4-0)

2011: 11-3 (4-1)

2012: 7-6 (4-5)

2013: 13-1 (1-1)

2014: 11-2 (2-0)

2015: 12-2 (6-1)

2016: 3-9 (0-3)

2017: 10-3 (4-0)

Which means in 8 years, he's 25-11 in games decided by 7 points or less. Those 2013/2014 teams were really good, but every other season, the success has largely been decided by what should be an unsustainable level of luck in close games. 

Let's flip this and say Harbaugh's win % in these games is the .700 put up by Dantonio and Dantonio's win % is the .363 put up by Harbaugh. Suddenly Dantonio is 13-23 in close games, i.e. he's got probably two 10-win seasons in 11 years at State instead of 6 (2010, 2011, 2015, and 2017 taken away).

Meanwhile, Harbaugh is 7-4 instead of 4-7. Let's give him the 2016 OSU win, last year's State game, and the 2017 bowl win. How does 3-3 vs. rivals, a playoff appearance in 2016, and three straight double digit win seasons sound? 

That's how thin the margin is and how much luck can often play into success and failure. 

05/17/2018 - 8:56pm Also, look at the

Also, look at the projections. ND is favored because Bill C has ND as the 7th best team in the country. Michigan? 10th. Last year's Bill C preview on Michigan should be required reading. My guess is this year's will be something about the QB, OL, and an impossible schedule.

05/11/2018 - 3:57pm I just joined up. This looks

I just joined up. This looks like a lot of fun and I'm on r/cfb a lot. Attacked BC with the rest of you. Le

04/30/2018 - 1:27pm So, I took a look at the

So, I took a look at the Post-Spring version of this for the 2016 team (when we had a lot of contributors returning) and here's the breakdown based on Brian's predictions and what happened:

Pack Your Bags: 9/10 started and played the majority of snaps at their position (only Wormley who was listed as a 3-Tech did not)

Unless Something Strange: 7/7

Fairly Safe Bet: 4/5 (Wheatley as the starting "blocking TE" was a miss)

In A Battle: 3.5/5 (O'Korn got beat out by Speight and Winovich didn't start WDE, but certainly did make an impact)

Technically Not Starters: 11/12 (only Ways didn't actually contribute)

Pushing From Behind: Out of the 16 players listed, two of them started (Speight & Asiasi) and two receivers contributed (Crawford beat out Ways and McDoom played here and there)

Waiting Their Turn: Out of the 20 players listed, I only remember 2 actually playing (Bredeson & JBB) and that was because of Newsome's injury.

I'd wager that outside of Ross, Watson, and the tackles, everyone else will probably be the guys at the start of 2018. For the Pushing From Behind Group, I could see Martin, one of the OL we're not expecting, and maybe Singleton/Anthony actually playing legitimate snaps this year. 

 

04/27/2018 - 8:37pm Listen, I get the NFL is

Listen, I get the NFL is different, but the fact that Kemoko Turay went before Mo Hurst is ridiculous.

04/17/2018 - 1:57pm I'm going to be pedantic here

I'm going to be pedantic here and say that the "arrow is pointing up" and "we'll finally have a good team" takes bother me.

We had two good teams. In 2015, the same group that went 5-7 the year before went 10-3 and one of those losses was on a fluke play that'll never happen again in a million years.

In 2016, we had a great team that got really, really unlucky. Like, I think back and still can't believe that a) Iowa gets every bounce imaginable and still wins by 1 and b) the refs, Samuel's escape, and the Spot lead us to lose by 3 in OT in Columbus.

Last year was a downer, but they lost their starting QB and a bazillion starters to the NFL. Look what happened to FSU last year when Francois went down. Had to reschedule a bodybag game to keep their bowl streak alive.

This isn't a slight on you because I know what you meant, just the idea that somehow Harbaugh's tenure is a disappointment doesn't hold water with me.

04/14/2018 - 10:48am Wagner will go down as one my

Wagner will go down as one my favorite players at Michigan.

This was the right move. He wasn’t going to ge his draft stock any higher coming back for another year.

Good luck and hopefully he can enjoy a long career in the NBA.

04/12/2018 - 1:49pm I really hope there's a USMNT

I really hope there's a USMNT podcast closer to the World Cup detailing what went wrong, what the future looks like, etc.

While depressing, I'd love to hear some insights from other people who follow the team.

04/09/2018 - 11:00am Haven’t watched it, but given

Haven’t watched it, but given what I read when it came out and just common sense, you’d be hard pressed to get me to believe Paterno had no idea what Sandusky was doing.

04/02/2018 - 12:52pm So, the formula is either:
A)

So, the formula is either:

A) Michigan has a redux of the A&M game and rains fire from 3.

or

B) Villanova has a redux of those St. John's and Providence games and can't hit anything from 3

Preferably, a combination of both.

04/02/2018 - 8:27am If any fellow Michigan fans

If any fellow Michigan fans happen to find themselves at JFK Airport awaiting an international flight scheduled to depart as the game is wrapping up, I'll probably be at an airport bar hoping the refs keep this one to a tight 2 hours.

03/31/2018 - 10:03pm As much as I’d love for him

As much as I’d love for him to stay, I think it’s time for him to go. There’s nothing else he can do to improve his draft stock and if he has a good game Monday night, he’ll end up in the first round potentially.

03/31/2018 - 10:02pm I’ll give a shoutout to

I’ll give a shoutout to Simmons too, who transferred probably thinking he’d start all year and put up good numbers and found himself playing maybe 10 mpg. Simpson was off tonight and Simmons gave them some really solid minutes.

03/27/2018 - 11:52am This is going to be some

This is going to be some DISRESPEKT, but I'm not among the people belieivng that MSU is totally back to being a premiere program in the conference. They went 3-9 in 2016 and last year, well...

Lose by 20 @Notre Dame and by 45 @ Ohio State.

Iowa? Won by 7 at home.

at Michigan? Won by 4 in a weird game with Michigan's backup QB.

at Minnesota? Won by 3

vs Indiana? Won by 8

vs Penn State? Won by 3.

vs Maryland? Won by 10. 

So, yeah, 5-1 in games decided by one score (with that one loss being a comeback to force OT against Northwestern). I had a diary post after last season which pointed out that Dantonio has been abnormally lucky in close games over his tenture. Now, unless he's got some super secret sauce that he uses to win close games, that will revert to the mean at some point. 

03/24/2018 - 11:11pm BANNNNNNGGGG

BANNNNNNGGGG

03/24/2018 - 8:49pm WIN THE GAME

WIN THE GAME

03/23/2018 - 3:28pm Essentially, it would be the

Essentially, it would be the same as tomorrow's game without Wagner. Tillie was their stretch 5 that bent defenses and let everyone else do their thing. 

Would you like Michigan's chances if Wagner wasn't playing tomorrow? 

03/19/2018 - 10:24am Adding to that:
Robinson and

Adding to that:

Robinson and Livers are going to have their hands full. Tyler Davis and Robert Williams are their two bigs and both are skilled and mobile as well. 

My hope is that Robinson is able to get a ton of open looks from 3 because neither one is going to feel comfortable chasing him around screens all game. Whether we get good Duncan or bad Duncan might go a long way towards winning this game. 

 

03/16/2018 - 12:07pm Yes, it was annoying.
That

Yes, it was annoying.

That said, what kind of person threatens somebody because said person is screaming at a basketball game? Like, what decisions have to be made for a person's brain to go, "Yes, I will tell this person whose only crime is enjoying a basketball game that they deserve to die."

03/11/2018 - 6:45pm Montana is the best #14 seed

Montana is the best #14 seed by about 25 spots on barttorvik.com

I would not sleep on them at all.

03/09/2018 - 2:48pm I'm not a "get off my lawn"

I'm not a "get off my lawn" type when it comes to most things, but I hate that TV $$$$$ has ruined the old conferences. There was something pure (is that the right word) about conferences being made up of similar insitutions, culturally and geographically. 

It made sense, I guess. And it's not like I was against expansion in principle.

Nebraska was a fit in the Big 10. Colorado and Utah were fits in the Pac-12. South Carolina and Arkansas were fits in the SEC.

But, Maryland and Rutgers are not Big 10 schools. Louisville and ND are not ACC schools. West Virginia is not a Big 12 school. Missouri is not a SEC school. I don't know what the hell the American is. All the leftovers? 

/rant

03/03/2018 - 5:18pm Can I get an extra f you to

Can I get an extra f you to the floor slapping gimmick which does literally nothing. So glad we swept those clowns.

03/03/2018 - 4:21pm East Lansing. New York. The

East Lansing. New York. The Moon. We’ll beat them wherever.

03/03/2018 - 2:44pm Solid so far, but gone cold

Solid so far, but gone cold from 3. Refs mostly fine but seem not to want to call any fouls on State around the basket.

03/03/2018 - 2:34pm Not sure why Poole can’t hit

Not sure why Poole can’t hit anything right now, but still down 2 after missing their last 8 or 9. Gotta get back in the flow.

03/03/2018 - 2:24pm Foul on Jackson.

Foul on Jackson.

03/03/2018 - 2:21pm Thank you! Z has gotten

Thank you! Z has gotten fouled twice too.

03/01/2018 - 4:45pm Oh fuck off refs. That's

Oh fuck off refs. That's continuation. 

03/01/2018 - 4:43pm I'd say the refs have Iowa

I'd say the refs have Iowa against the spread. 

02/28/2018 - 11:09am This is actually

This is actually semi-accurate.

John Beilein has been the Michigan coach in 10 Big Ten Tournaments so far. 

Here are their opponents in the first game they've played (i.e. Quarterfinals or First Round):

Illinois x4 (including 3 in the last 4 years)

Iowa x3 (all within the first 5 years)

Northwestern

Penn State

Minnesota

But, wait, there's more!

In those 10 games, John Beilein's Michigan Wolverines are...

10-0

Seriously. 

02/21/2018 - 8:23pm Stop with the “this team

Stop with the “this team sucks, where’s the heart” shit. Penn State is playing for their tournament lives. They made a run.

02/21/2018 - 7:40pm They are refusing to call

They are refusing to call fouls on Penn State. Matthews gets held on a drive. Simpson wants a call.

02/21/2018 - 7:22pm Glad to see it’s 5-on-8 this

Glad to see it’s 5-on-8 this game. Matthews got fouled on two drives, MAAR gets shoved out of bounds on a rebound. Meanwhile slight hand check on them gets a whistle.

02/19/2018 - 6:44pm I searched but I sort of

I searched but I sort of remember a mid-major team playing an exhibition because this exact thing happened to them a few years back. They didn’t want to go two weeks without a game.

02/19/2018 - 11:13am FWIW, on Bart Torvik's site,

FWIW, on Bart Torvik's site, if we win out (wins at Penn St., at Maryland, win the BTT), we end up a 3 seed.

If we lose out (losses at Penn St/Maryland, lose to Iowa or Illinois in the first round of the BTT) we end up a 11 seed, but not in a play-in game.

My guess is we end up in the 6-7 range.

02/18/2018 - 3:46pm Punching a ticket bang!

Punching a ticket bang!

02/18/2018 - 2:45pm Am I crazy or didn’t OSU get

Am I crazy or didn’t OSU get two straight jump balls?

02/18/2018 - 2:18pm Agreed. That was a huge

Agreed. That was a huge swing. Instead of an OSU timeout, they get it back to 5.

02/18/2018 - 1:34pm Getting the favorable home

Getting the favorable home whistle again. What’s that? We’re not getting that whistle? Weird.

02/14/2018 - 9:33pm Just some good-natured jawing

Just some good-natured jawing back and forth. I still think the joke has some teeth.

02/14/2018 - 7:54pm I’ve given Duncan Robinson a

I’ve given Duncan Robinson a lot of shit this year, but he always tried hard on D and if he gets in a groove, this team can be very dangerous.

02/11/2018 - 3:02pm That’s an awful awful call.

That’s an awful awful call. Fuck B1G refs.

02/11/2018 - 2:34pm If they blow a 25 point

If they blow a 25 point second half lead to this Wisconsin team, that might be it. Which would be a monumental collapse.

02/11/2018 - 2:13pm I didn’t really get it. They

I didn’t really get it. They didn’t look great against Northwestern, but it was like 10 days earlier they almost beat Purdue in Mackey. All they had to do was win today and hold serve at home and then they’d be playing for seed.

02/11/2018 - 1:40pm Some um skeptical offensive

Some um skeptical offensive fouls there.

Also, I feel bad for Happ. He’s the only guy on that team.

02/11/2018 - 1:33pm Please please let this be

Please please let this be Robinson coming out of his funk.